Journal of Economic Modeling Research

In this paper, risk-premium (the difference between the future prices and expected future spot price) in US crude oil futures market over the period of 1989:1 to 2012: 11 is investigated, and then variability of risk-premium through time is explained. In addition, risk premium in different time horizons of US crude oil futures market is predicted using BVAR and VAR models. The results showed that significantly 10% risk-premium existence in US crude oil futures market is approved for all time horizons (one month, two months, three months and four months), and on the other hand,by comparing RMSE of BVAR and VAR models, the results generally confirmed better predictions of risk premium by BVAR models in comparison with VAR models.

There is a growing attention to models which contain a broader set of economic data. In recent decade, introduction of Factor Augmented VAR models through augmentation of traditional VAR models with unobservable “factors” has made a new route to econometric modeling. In spite of the growing number of international papers and researches which have used FAVAR approach to modeling policy shocks to various economies, there is little about Iranian economy. So the paper is an attempt to fill the gap in the literature using an FAVAR model to analyze transmission of oil and monetary shocks to Iranian economy. The model contains 35 major macroeconomic annual variables spanning from 1974 to 2014. The results show that “real sector” of Iranian economy responds positively to oil shocks up to 5 years. Also “nominal sector” of the economy responds positively to oil shocks but the responses are shorter, smaller and more volatile than “real sector” responses. Finally the model results show responses of “nominal sector” of Iranian economy to monetary shocks are positive which its duration varies between 2 and 4 years.

In monetary and financial literature, financial crises include a wide range of crises. But in general, there are three important types of financial crisis, including the currency crisis. The banking crisis and the debt crisis. The aim of this study is to simultaneously analyze the occurrence of banking, debt and currency crises, known as the three crises in Iran. For this purpose, first to determine the indicators related to banking crises, currency and debt payments and using logistics and self-regression vector models during the 1980 to 2017 seasonally, we have discussed the relationship between these three crises. The results show that the three banking crises, debt and currency, affect each other. The short-term results of the VAR model showed the effect of the banking crisis and the currency crisis on the debt crisis is positive and significant, indicating an increase in the likelihood of a banking crisis and the currency will increase the debt of the government and the country. Also, the effects of banking and debt crises on the currency crisis are positive and significant. This indicates the existence of causal relationship between banking crises and debt on the currency crisis. The results of the Logit model show that the effect of inflation variables, liquidity growth and the growth of the exchange rate on the indicators of the three crises that are significant and positive in most models.