Dr Davoud Behboudi, Dr Mohammad Ali Motafkker Azad, Siab Mamipour,
Volume 3, Issue 10 (12-2012)
Abstract
Oil revenues play a significant role in the government budget in Iran and have also an important impact on GDP. This study aims at providing a practical solution for the question of how oil revenues should be managed. In this regard, a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model has developed to examine the direct effect of distribution of oil revenues on GDP in both static and dynamic approaches .
The results of static model show that the direct distribution of oil revenues to households has a negative effect on the government expenditures and therefore decrease the GDP . The dynamic model allows the conversion of savings into investment and capital formation. So the results of running this model show the positive effect of direct distribution of oil revenues on GDP and also the negative effect of this policy on the government current spending. Therefore, the results confirm that direct distribution of oil revenues is an effective policy in reducing the dependence of government on oil revenues and also in relying more on people and the tax revenues .
Mr Abdolah Afshari, Mr Teimour Mohammadi, Mr Farhad Ghaffari,
Volume 13, Issue 50 (3-2023)
Abstract
This research investigated the effects of oil revenue decreases as a non-linear model based on Threshold Vector auto-regression(TVAR), with an emphasis on Iran’s sanctions during the period of 2003–2021 with seasonal data. Real oil revenue growth was selected as a threshold variable; during the two regimes, the threshold was selected as -0. 021 for oil revenues, and by the generalized impulse response functions(GIRF), the effects of oil revenue increases on economic growth were investigated. Results revealed that shocks of oil revenue in upward and downward regimes had different effects on economic growth rates. The effects of shocks of oil revenue on economic growth in a downward regime were positive until the second period, and after that, they decreased, and after the sixth period, the economic growth was negative. And in the upward regime, it was positive, and after the first period, it decreased at a lower rate than in the downward regime and finally tended to zero. Finally, it can be concluded that the effects of oil revenue decreases on economic growth rate were more in the downward regime than upward, revealing that sanctions and decreases of oil revenue have a great impact on reductions of production and economic growth. Therefore, it is recommended that the government, by implementing true politics and economic programs in line with the reduction of sanctions, reduce the sanctions' effects on production and economic growth.
