Showing 17 results for Demand
Dr Alimorad Sharifi, Dr Karim Azarbaijani, Dr Iraj Kazemi, Aboozar Shakeri,
Volume 1, Issue 1 (10-2010)
Abstract
Industrial energy demand analysis has always been one of the leading fields of research in economics. This issue is more critical in the case of developing countries especially those with transition experiences. In this paper, third generation of dynamic factor demand models for the Iranian manufacturing industries is estimated to analyze the speed of adjustment in factor demands. Data which is used in this study is an Iranian industrial plant based on two-digit international classification code during 1374-1386. The translog functional form is used as model specification. The main findings are the complementary relation between energy carriers, electricity, and capital and low adjustment speed of capital stock. In Iranian manufacturing industries, demand for energy carriers and capital, with expansion of manufacturing activities and technological change has increased, while the demand for labor has decreased.
Dr Afsaneh Shafiee, Dr Ahmad Tashkini ,
Volume 1, Issue 1 (10-2010)
Abstract
This study examines the social cost of banking industry in Iran (17 governmental and private banks) in an unbalanced panel data model.
To conduct estimations, two different approaches were taken: 1- Welfare Triangle approach 2- Libenstein’s approach. In the former, welfare triangle is measured assuming banking industry operating in full technical efficiency however, the latter includes both the effect of welfare triangle and the cost of likely technical X-inefficiency. The result of the first method showed that the social cost of banks in Iran is little, amounting to be less than 1 percent of GDP in 2008 while within the same period, the second method resulted in 4 percent of GDP, as the social cost of banks in Iran.
Alireza Garshasbi, Dr Kazem Yavari, Dr Reza Najarzade, Dr Masoud Homayounifar,
Volume 3, Issue 10 (12-2012)
Abstract
The estimation of output supply and inputs demand in farming sector with the assumption of full economic efficiency may result in false policy decisions. This article investigates the effects of irrigated wheat economic inefficiency on output supply and inputs demand in the period 2001-2009. After estimating the economic inefficiency by the use of production and cost stochastic models, the output supply and inputs demand of irrigated wheat are obtained through seemingly unrelated regression method. Results show that technical, allocative and economic inefficiency in irrigated wheat production in Iran are 21, 23 and 38 percent respectively. Moreover, the slope of output supply function is strongly affected by the related economic inefficiency in profit function and inefficiency changes input’s demand coefficients. Results also show that technical inefficiency has a greater effect on inputs demand compared to the allocative inefficiency.
Dr Hossein Sadeghi, Dr Ali Akbar Afzalian, Dr Mahmood Haghani, Hossein Sohrabi Vafa,
Volume 3, Issue 10 (12-2012)
Abstract
Ali Faridzad, Dr Ali Asghar Banouei, Dr Farshad Momeni, Dr Hamid Amadeh,
Volume 3, Issue 10 (12-2012)
Abstract
Today the quantitative assessment of economic and social impacts of petroleum products supply constraints is one of the main policy issues in Iran. This issue arises from the fact that importing gasoline, gasoil and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is restricted by international sanctions. In this paper, we showed that a demand driven Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) is not a suitable tool for answering the above question. So, a modified SAM, known as mixed supply driven SAM is suggested. For this purpose the energy SAM of 2006 is used.
The overall results reveal that: 1) Petroleum products supply constraints have the most impacts on crude oil and natural gas, retail and wholesale, chemical and agricultural sectors.2) Operating surplus has the most reduction among the other production factors. Results also showed that the fall of urban income as a consequence of supply constraints is more than rural labor either relatively or absolutely.
Dr Alireza Erfani, Khayam Sadeghi, Mohammad Mahdi Poya,
Volume 4, Issue 13 (10-2013)
Abstract
Simple sum monetary aggregation approach that based upon perfect substitution of monetary components assumption is inconsistent with microeconomics theories. In this research, using quarterly data of Iran over period 1370:1–1388:1, we first calculate monetary aggregation based on divisia index for both measures of money (M1, M2) and then estimate the demand functions for money for divisia and simple sum monetary aggregations separately.
The results show that the adjustment speed of divisia aggregations is more than that of simple sum aggregations and the demand functions for money that construct by divisia aggregations, are more stable.
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Volume 5, Issue 15 (3-2014)
Abstract
IN ACCORDANCE TO DEVELOPMENT OF INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY IN IRAN, ELECTRONIC BANKING HAS BEEN DEVELOPED IN RECENT DECADE.A MEANINGFUL TRANSFORMATION HAS BEEN PLACED IN THE STYLE OF EXISTING BANKING SYSTEM SERVICES, BY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE USE OF ELECTRONIC BANKING TOOLS IN TEN YEARS.
THE REFLECTION OF THIS PHENOMEN IS CLEAR IN THE BEHAVIOR OF PEOPLE AND BANKING SYSTEM WHO CARE ABOUT CASH, MONEY DEMAND PREFRENCES AND VARIATION IN THE COMPOSITION OF BANK RESOURCES.THEREFORE EFFECTIVENESS OF E-BANKING ON VARIABLES SUCH AS MONEY DEMAND IS A TOPIC WHICH APPEARS ESSENTIAL TO STUDY.
DEMAND MONEY FUNCTION IS ONE OF THE MAIN IMPORTANT PARTS OF MONETARY SYSTEM AND PLAY CRUCIAL ROLE IN TRANSMISSION OF MONETARY POLICY TO THE REAL ECONOMIC SECTION. THE IMPACT OF THIS ON OTHER COMPONENT OF ECONOMIC SYSTEM, BOTH MONETARY AND NON-MONETARY IS INEVITABLE.
IN OTHER WORDS, TO ANALYZE MONETARY ISSUES AND SOLVING THE PROBLEMS, IT IS NECESSARY TO UNDERSTAND THE NATURE OF MONEY DEMAND. IN THIS PAPER, THE DEMAND FUNCTION HAS BEEN ESTIMATED BY USING AR METHOD AND ENTERING EXOGENOUS VARIABLES IN MARKOV SWITCHING VECTOR AUTO REGRESSION MODEL.
FOR MODELING OF MONEY DEMAND FUNCTION, SEASONAL DATA BETWEEN 2002 TO 2011 HAVE BEEN USED. ALSO THE EFFECT OF TRANSACTION VOLUME THROUGH POINT OF SALE(POS) AND AUTOMATIC TELLER MACHINE (ATM) AS EN-BANKING INDEX HAS BEEN DETERMINED.
ACCORDING TO STABILITY TESTS, ESTIMATING THE MONEY DEMAND WICHE CONTAIN EN-BANKING VARIABLES IS UNSTABLE.
THERFOR, IT CAN BE STATED THAT THE RESULTS OF FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES OF THE CENTRAL BANK AND THE GOVERNMENT TO ACHIEVE ITS GOALS DUE TO UNCERTAIN DEMAND MONEY POSITION, SOMETIMES IS REVERSED.
Mostafa Karimzadeh,
Volume 5, Issue 15 (3-2014)
Abstract
The specification of money demand function is one of the most
important and disputable subjects in economics. With regard to its importance, many of economists have represented several theorizes about money demand.
The Sidrauski monetary model is an interesting theory of money demand.
Sidrauski extended Ramsey model with regard real balance of money which in the
Sidrauski model the utility function involves both consumption and money. Application
of Sidrauski model can help to extend
macroeconomics with micro foundations in Iran and prepares new scopes for
researchers. The main aim of this paper is to estimate the Sidrauski monetary model for Iranian economy over the period
of 1979 -2011. For this purpose, the Engle – Granger, ARDL and Johansen-
Juselius approaches have been used for estimation of long run relationship of
money demand. The empirical results of econometric estimation of co-integration
vector indicated a long run relationship between per capita money demand, per
capita consumption, and inflation rate, rate of interest, exchange rate, per
capita income, and stock exchange price index. Our
results showed that per capita consumption and per capita income have positive
and significant effect on per capita money demand. Whereas inflation rate, rate
of interest, exchange rate and stock exchange price index
have negative and significant effect on per capita money demand.
Mehran Amirmoeini, Teymour Mohammadi, Morteza Khorsandi,
Volume 5, Issue 18 (12-2014)
Abstract
This paper tries to model the electricity demand in Iran’s industrial sector which captures economic factors and also non-economic exogenous factors. The structural time series model (STSM) approach is employed which allows using economic theory and time series flexibility. In this approach the role of UEDT (Underlying Energy Demand Trend) including technological improvement and structural changes is modeled, therefore the income and price elasticity are estimated more accurately. The results show that the UEDT has the stochastic nature. And UEDT has a great impact on industrial energy demand during 1975-2012. So, the electricity has not been used efficiently in this sector. In the short run the estimation of the income and price elasticity are 0.42 and 0.11 respectively. The value of the cross-price elasticity of electricity demand is estimated about 0.06. It shows that natural gas substitute electricity in industrial sector, however it is small.
Ali Taiebnia, Hamed Farnam,
Volume 6, Issue 19 (3-2015)
Abstract
This paper seeks to investigate and analyze the money demand function and its Engle curve in Iran. Money demand function and its Engle curve have been estimated through EASI demand system by making use of monthly data 1995:04-2007:03. The investigation of money demand function shows that monetary elements are weak substitutions of each other. Thus, some policy recommendation is provided on the basis of estimated elasticity (Income, Price, cross Price, and Morishima). Moreover, the investigation of Engle curve reflects that by the increase of income, first, individuals extract their money from demand deposit. Secondly, investment in timed deposits increases and thirdly, no change is observed in the amount of money being held as currency and travel checks.
Masoud Sadeghi,
Volume 6, Issue 19 (3-2015)
Abstract
In many Developing Countries liberalization of international trade has been accompanied by demand for skilled labour and inequalityof wages.Thisphenomenon seems to be inconsistant with the Stopler- Samuelson Theorem.Studies in this respect show that imported high –tech capital andintermediate goods are skill-based, thus increasing the relative demand for skilled labour.
In such circumstances, identifying the impact of such goods upon the demand for skilled labour in Iran is of great importance.
In this paper, by using Translog cost function and the Method of Seemingly Unrelated Regression, short and long run demand function for the period of 1977- 2014 in Iran has been estimated. Althoug the short and long –run results arecompatible with the theortical expections, the investment on domestic research and development regarding the employment of skilled labour has been effective only in the long-run and not the short –run.
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Volume 7, Issue 24 (6-2016)
Abstract
In recent years “Financial Conditions Index" (herein FCI) has been used as a key indicator of the monetary policy condition. Considering the importance of this index, the purpose of the present research is to reach a comprehensive index that includes all the monetary transmission mechanisms based on the Iranian economy. To this aim, a weighted average of the banking interest, real exchange rates , credits and price of other assets (namely the stock price index, and housing price index ), need to be calculated. The weighted average of the variables are obtained by estimating the, backward-looking aggregate supply and demand equations for Iran. In the next stage, in order to test the validity of the obtained index, and because of the importance of price stability for the central bank, the predictive power of the index from inflation in Iran was examined using Non-Nested Tests and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). Seasonal data series are collected for the period of 1991-2012.The findings of this study show that the weight of housing price variable is higher than the other variables, whilst, the stock price index coefficient was not significant in any lag. Moreover, the results of second stage tests, indicate a good predicative power of the FCI index from the inflation in Iran.
Ali Asghar Salem, Morteza Niazi,
Volume 8, Issue 28 (7-2017)
Abstract
Religious tourism is very important either in Iran and in the international level. In this study dynamic linear almost ideal demand system and formulas of price and income elasticity were applied to estimate demand for religious trips. To this end, micro data of household budget prepared by Census center of Iran for 1991-2011 has been applied in this study.
According to the results, income elasticity of religious trips is about 0/42 , that means one percent increase in income will lead to an increase of 0/4 percent in demand for religious trips. Also the price elasticity of demand in all commodity groups is negative and price elasticity of religious trips is about -0/98.
Zohreh Shirani Fakhr,
Volume 8, Issue 30 (12-2017)
Abstract
In this study, we estimate the demand for natural gas in the subsection manufacture of basic metals of Iran using structural time series model (STSM) over the period of time 1981-2013. Such model contains unobservable elements which have been transported to state space model with the use of kalman filter and is estimated by implementing maximum likelihood approach. Also, because the Targeting of Subsidies Plan was approved by the Iranian parliament at the end of 2010, so we evaluate the role of this plan on energy demand of industrial subsectors. Finding of the research is that, first of all the nature of the trend is smooth one. Secondly, it is changing on a nonlinear basis. The estimated demand function shows that price elasticity for natural gas in the long and short run, correspondingly, are (-0.30) and (-0.79) and production elasticities of natural gas in the short and long run, correspondingly, are (0.17) and (0.38). Furthermore, Cross elasticity for electricity and gasoline in the long and short run, correspondingly, are substitute and complementary goods. In addition, the result of evaluating effect of the Targeting of Subsidies Plan show that estimated natural gas demand functions can explain the impact of this policy.
Naser Khiabani, Mr. Mohammad Amin Naderian,
Volume 9, Issue 32 (7-2018)
Abstract
In this paper, we have utilized a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model in order to examine the structural changes in the transmission mechanisms of oil price shocks in the global crude oil market over the period of 1985-2016. In this setting, the contemporaneous response of real oil price and crude oil production to flow oil supply shock, flow oil demand shock, and speculative demand shocks are explored. Results obtained from using Monte Carlo Markov Chain estimation method along with the identification approach proposed by Killian and Murphy (2014) reveal that the impact responses of oil production to the structural shocks follows a decreasing trend throughout the past three decades mainly due to the erosion of global oil production spare capacity. The reaction of oil production to flow oil supply shock is also estimated to be greater than other demand shocks over all dates. Moreover, the contemporaneous impact of structural shocks on real oil prices fail to show a clear pattern, however, jumps experienced in periods where uncertainty heightened and risk aversion strengthened is distinct. The reaction of real crude oil price to flow oil supply shock was more pronounced in 1990s and the period subsequent to oil price plunge in 2014. By contrast, the role of flow oil demand shock in real crude oil price fluctuations was dominant over the period of 2000-2014. While the oil production reacted more strongly to speculative demand shock rather than flow oil demand shocks, the response of real oil price to these two oil demand shocks is completely reversed.
Mohsen Mehrara, Gholamreza Yavari, Haasan Yaseri,
Volume 11, Issue 41 (10-2020)
Abstract
Rice is the second strategic product after wheat and one of the most widely consumed food products in the country. Population growth, consumption and growing demand, price fluctuations and welfare effects due to changes in the amount and price of rice require the attention and planning and foresight of policymakers and the country's planning system. In this study, in the framework of inverse demand system, rice types (foreign rice 1 and 2 as well as four types of domestic rice) using cross-sectional data related to consumption and expenditure of urban households during the years 96-1392 were estimated by seemingly unrelated regression estimation (SURE) method. And from 4 systems of reverse demand IADIS, IROT, INBR and ICBS Only the inverse demand system IADIS It is compatible with the data of the research method and according to the results of the statistics, the correlation ratio is superior to the other three models In order to study the welfare effects, four scenarios were defined and by compensating the compensatory and equilibrium effects and combined changes were determined. Due to the share of more than 60% of first grade foreign rice and second grade foreign rice in the expenditure share of urban households, a change in the amount of consumption of this type of rice compared to domestic rice can have a more significant impact on household welfare. The results of changing the values of different types of rice on their prices in the form of different scenarios showed that if the consumption values of imported rice decrease, the price of this rice will increase. However, the rate of price change for different types of rice is not the same, and its intensity depends on the amount of traction and the scale of each. On the other hand, the demand for different types of rice will increase in the future for various reasons, including population growth, which if this increase in demand is not accompanied by an increase in market value, will increase the price of various types of rice.
Mrs Narges Ghasemian, Proffesor Hossein Raghfar, Engineer Faramarz Ekhteraei,
Volume 12, Issue 43 (3-2021)
Abstract
Drugs as a strategic and subsidized commodity and an urgent need for patients have been constantly of particular importance, specially, in the health-care system of a society. On the other hand, one of the parameters concerning the assessment of the family welfare is the amount spent for satisfaction of divergent needs. The more a family spends on essential necessities such as food, housing, clothing and higher education, the less is expected to be devoted to health care. Concerning drugs, the demand for different drugs may vary depending on the patients' attitudes, the type of illnesses and their income elasticity. The objective of the present research is to investigate the demand for orphan drugs for refractory diseases regarding various income groups in Iran applying Agent-based Models (ABMs). In this research, the behavior dynamics of the orphan drugs applicants and the diversity of their demands in miscellaneous price scenarios resulting from inflation and fluctuations in the exchange rate have been scrutinized in accordance with ABM. To this end, one thousand family applicants for orphan drugs, extracted from Iran's statistics center, were categorized in five different income ventiles. Their reactions towards the increase of the price of the aforementioned drugs are predicted based on Net Logo simulation software. The results indicate that the average of price elasticity of demand for generic and branded drugs has been -0.39 and -0.05 percent, respectively; similarly, the demand for these two drug groups has been decreased by the same amount. In the lowest income ventile as the price of generic and branded orphan drugs deceases, for the lowest income ventile families, the allocated expenses for these drugs has been decreased by 3.3 percent and 31.85 percent, respectively. The main reason for the aforementioned problem is assigned to the low budget of the patients' family and its allocation to essential necessities of life such as food and housing. The severity of the cost reduction in branded drugs is due to the fact that it can be replaced by generic drugs.
