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Showing 2 results for Structural Time Series Model

Mehran Amirmoeini, Teymour Mohammadi, Morteza Khorsandi,
Volume 5, Issue 18 (12-2014)

This paper tries to model the electricity demand in Iran’s industrial sector which captures economic factors and also non-economic exogenous factors. The structural time series model (STSM) approach is employed which allows using economic theory and time series flexibility. In this approach the role of UEDT (Underlying Energy Demand Trend) including technological improvement and structural changes is modeled, therefore the income and price elasticity are estimated more accurately. The results show that the UEDT has the stochastic nature. And UEDT has a great impact on industrial energy demand during 1975-2012. So, the electricity has not been used efficiently in this sector. In the short run the estimation of the income and price elasticity are 0.42 and 0.11 respectively. The value of the cross-price elasticity of electricity demand is estimated about 0.06. It shows that natural gas substitute electricity in industrial sector, however it is small.
Zohreh Shirani Fakhr,
Volume 8, Issue 30 (12-2017)

In this study, we estimate the demand for natural gas in the subsection manufacture of basic metals of Iran using structural time series model (STSM) over the period of time 1981-2013. Such model contains unobservable elements which have been transported to state space model with the use of kalman filter and is estimated by implementing maximum likelihood approach. Also, because the Targeting of Subsidies Plan was approved by the Iranian parliament at the end of 2010, so we evaluate the role of this plan on energy demand of industrial subsectors. Finding of the research is that, first of all the nature of the trend is smooth one. Secondly, it is changing on a nonlinear basis. The estimated demand function shows that price elasticity for natural gas in the long and short run, correspondingly, are (-0.30) and (-0.79) and production elasticities of natural gas in the short and long run, correspondingly, are (0.17) and (0.38). Furthermore, Cross elasticity for electricity and gasoline in the long and short run, correspondingly, are substitute and complementary goods. In addition, the result of evaluating effect of the Targeting of Subsidies Plan show that estimated natural gas demand functions can explain the impact of this policy.

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