Showing 26 results for Energy
Alimorad Sharifi, Rahman Khoshakhlagh, Marzieh Bahaloo Horeh, Ali Sadeghi Hamedani,
Volume 5, Issue 16 (7-2014)
Abstract
Energy carrier’s subsidization has placed a significant pressure on government budget in Iran thus, energy price increase is performed in order to ameliorate this case. One of the main challenges that policymakers need to consider is the impact of energy prices increase on the labor market especially, when the national unemployment rate is high. This paper utilizes a computable general equilibrium model based on a Micro Consistent Matrix for 2006 in order to evaluate the impact of energy price increase on the Iranian labor market during 2006. The empirical results are based on two scenarios: Baseline and FOB price increase scenarios. They show that the activity level and demand for labor in “crude oil, natural gas, and coal” as well as “other services” sectors will increase in short-run while the energy carriers’ prices increase. However, in long-run, the labor increment will be lower. Furthermore, the model results indicate that in short-run, the activity level and demand for labor in the other sectors will decrease. On the other hand, the policy will result in a larger decrement in the activity level and demand for labor in these sectors in long-run.
Mehran Amirmoeini, Teymour Mohammadi, Morteza Khorsandi,
Volume 5, Issue 18 (12-2014)
Abstract
This paper tries to model the electricity demand in Iran’s industrial sector which captures economic factors and also non-economic exogenous factors. The structural time series model (STSM) approach is employed which allows using economic theory and time series flexibility. In this approach the role of UEDT (Underlying Energy Demand Trend) including technological improvement and structural changes is modeled, therefore the income and price elasticity are estimated more accurately. The results show that the UEDT has the stochastic nature. And UEDT has a great impact on industrial energy demand during 1975-2012. So, the electricity has not been used efficiently in this sector. In the short run the estimation of the income and price elasticity are 0.42 and 0.11 respectively. The value of the cross-price elasticity of electricity demand is estimated about 0.06. It shows that natural gas substitute electricity in industrial sector, however it is small.
Dr Mohammad Mahdi Barghi Oskooee, Ahad Mohammadi Bilankohi,
Volume 7, Issue 25 (10-2016)
Abstract
Energy as one of the most important factors of production, as well as one of the most important marginal products, has effential role in trade and economic development.The importance of energy has increased after the two oil crises in 1970’s. The relationship between energy and trade is an important topic to study for several reasons. If energy consumption is found to Granger cause exports or imports, then any reductions in energy consumption, coming from say energy conservation polices, will reduce exports or imports and lessen the benefits of trade. Energy conservation policies which reduce energy consumption will offset trade liberalization policies designed to promote economic growth. This places energy conservation policies at odds with trade liberalization policies.In this regard, the impact of trade on energy consumption through energy applications in the production process of import and export goods and their transportation is included. This study uses panel data to investigat effect of trade on energy consumption in D8 countries (Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia, Nigeria, Pakistan and Turkey) during the years 1990 to 2014. The results indicat that foreign trade has a significant and positive impact on energy consumption. The findings show a significant and negative impact of energy prices on energy use.
Nooshin Bordbar, Ebrahim Heidari,
Volume 8, Issue 27 (3-2017)
Abstract
The present article studies the interactive relationships between oil price volatility and industries stocks of basic metals, petroleum and chemical products by using Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) and Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastisity (GARCH) models from March 2004 to March 2015 empirically . In this research, the VAR-GARCH model is proposed, which is developed by Ling and McAleer (2003). The model survives the return and volatility problems among the considered series and this is the VAR-GARCH advantage. The results show that there are Average effects between oil market and stocks market of basic metals and petroleum products, But this effects are not true for chemical industry market. The volatility effects between world oil price and chemical and basic metals industry markets is not existed, but between oil market volatility and petroleum products stock volatility, Significant negative relationship is existed. There for, the investors should reduce their portfolios basket dependences on oil price as much as possible.
Mahdi Sadeghi, Mahdi Khoshkhooy,
Volume 8, Issue 27 (3-2017)
Abstract
Today one of the basic conditions for economic development in one country, is the high performance of energy sources used in different sections of the country economy. When the efficiency is raised, one of essential requirements is benefit from technologies and equipments with higher technical and performance specifications, and removing economic barriers or improving economic policies, in order to achieve as higher efficiency as possible in energy consumption. Considering that close to half of the our country energy consumption accounted for households and this sector is the largest consumer of energy in the country, and considering the importance of the issue of energy consumption, in this study we decided to analyze and scrutiny the phenomenon of energy efficiency in the household sector, and to achieve accurate and scientific analysis in this area based on expert opinion data, using structural equations modeling technique in LISREL. Based on the result of the model, economic policies (price and none price) has relatively more importance than the technical and technological solutions to the problem of improving energy efficiency in the household sector, as well as important and effective indices of each of these factors are extracted and identified. According to it, "levy a tax on energy consumption" among economic policies, and indicators of "e-government infrastructure development", "development of smart counters and Equipments WARNING energy consumption in homes" and "development of vernacular architecture patterns adapted to climatic conditions in different regions of the country" in connection with Technical foctors, have the greatest impact on energy efficiency in the mentioned sector. However, if the relationship identified for both the economic policies and technical-technological factors with the dependent variable "performance" was not acceptable very good, this matter can indicate this fact that there are other variables and factors that are influencing and can have a great role to play. Among these factors it can be addressed the socio-cultural factors and insights and norms of society which can be a help to aggravate the problem of inefficiency in energy use.
Firouz Fallahi, Reza Ranjpour, Tohid Shokri,
Volume 8, Issue 29 (10-2017)
Abstract
The stochastic and β convergences of per capita energy use (PCEU) in the OPEC member countries are examined during the period 1971-2011. Several unit root tests, including the test introduced by Lee and Strazicich (2003) are used to examine the existence of the stochastic convergence in the series. Next, to study the possibility of the existence of β-convergence, the approach of Perron and Yabu (2009) is employed. Both methods allow for an endogenous structural break point in the series. In addition, the approach of Perron and Yabu (2009) is robust to the presence of a unit root and the results remain the same for the unit-root and stationary series. The results show that the PCEU in Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Nigeria, Qatar, and Venezuela had experienced beta convergence during the first regime (the period before the break point). In the second regime, the PCEU in Algeria, Angola, Saudi Arabia, Ecuador, UAE, Iran, Iraq, Libya, and Qatar shows a convergent pattern. In addition, the estimated break points are clustered and correspond to the major energy and economic crises.
Musa Khoshkalam,
Volume 8, Issue 29 (10-2017)
Abstract
Price policies are one of the most permissive policies in Iranian economic for controlling energy carrier's consumption. In addition, the non-price policies such as energy efficiency improvement are effective for controlling energy carrier's consumption. This paper assesses the economic impacts of energy efficiency improvement (in gasoline, gasoil and electric) as a non-price policy. For the purposes of this paper computable general equilibrium (CGE) model based on social accounting matrix (SAM) is used. The social accounting matrix is aggregated in 12 activities and 14 commodities. The CGE model blocks are: production block, institution block, trade block, Investment block and system constraint block. The results show that, first 10 percent improvement in energy efficiency makes the highest rebound effects (of gasoline) in the transport sector with 29.8 percent, the highest rebound effect (of gasoil) in the transport sector with 24.7% and the highest rebound effect (of electricity) in the other services sector with 24.5 percent. Second 10 percent improvement in energy efficiency causes the greatest increase in the output level of sectors (related to gasoline, gasoil and electricity) respectively, in the "transport", "transport" and "other services" by 0.62, 0.51 and 0.32 percent. Thirdly 10 percent improvement in energy efficiency increases the GDP respectively 0.17, 0.15 and 0.11 percent.
Zohreh Shirani Fakhr,
Volume 8, Issue 30 (12-2017)
Abstract
In this study, we estimate the demand for natural gas in the subsection manufacture of basic metals of Iran using structural time series model (STSM) over the period of time 1981-2013. Such model contains unobservable elements which have been transported to state space model with the use of kalman filter and is estimated by implementing maximum likelihood approach. Also, because the Targeting of Subsidies Plan was approved by the Iranian parliament at the end of 2010, so we evaluate the role of this plan on energy demand of industrial subsectors. Finding of the research is that, first of all the nature of the trend is smooth one. Secondly, it is changing on a nonlinear basis. The estimated demand function shows that price elasticity for natural gas in the long and short run, correspondingly, are (-0.30) and (-0.79) and production elasticities of natural gas in the short and long run, correspondingly, are (0.17) and (0.38). Furthermore, Cross elasticity for electricity and gasoline in the long and short run, correspondingly, are substitute and complementary goods. In addition, the result of evaluating effect of the Targeting of Subsidies Plan show that estimated natural gas demand functions can explain the impact of this policy.
Mehdi Yazdani, Hamed Pirpour,
Volume 8, Issue 30 (12-2017)
Abstract
Due to the more dependence among countries and the raised demand for energy, the energy trade have increased during recent decades, while its major share is intra-industry trade (IIT). In this regard, countries are trying to exploit the diversity of a particular product, as well as the technology transfer and knowledge of technology which generated by IIT in this sector. According to the importance of role of IIT in the economies, this study will identify the determinants of IIT in the energy sector among Iran and its major trading partners using gravity model and Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood (PPML) method during 1997-2016. Based on the results, the effects of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of Iran and the selected countries, the products’ diversification in the energy sector of Iran and its partners, access to the open sea for Iran's trading partners, and foreign direct investment (FDI) in the energy sector in Iran are significant and positive on IIT. However, the geographical distance, transportation costs, and trade imbalances among Iran and the selected countries have had the significant and negative effects on IIT
Sajad Rajabi, Davood Manzoor,
Volume 10, Issue 35 (3-2019)
Abstract
In this paper, the Expanding extraction method of Dietzenbacher & Lahr (2013) is used and in the form of Input-Output general equilibrium model. The article assesses and evaluates the importance of the energy sector and its sub-sections in the Iranian economy based on Iranian input-output table of 2017 that is updated by RAS approach. In this way, the 10% reduction in the supply of coal, crude oil and natural gas, electricity and gas consumed has been investigated in four scenarios. Additionally, in the fifth scenario, by aggregating energy subsectors into one sector, the 10% reduction in the supply of energy in interaction with 75 sectors is measured. The results of this simulated model show that by reducing the supply of energy sector, "Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products" will drop by 9% in value. Respectively, "Transport via pipeline" and "Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products" reduced by 4% and 2% in value added
Shahryar Zaroki,
Volume 10, Issue 36 (6-2019)
Abstract
Given the importance of the issue and the undeniable role of the environment in the community's life, in this research, it is attempted to test the hypothesis of the relationship between the government size and composition of government expenditure (Current and developmental) on carbon dioxide emissions in Iran during 1971-2016 based on autoregressive distributed lag approach. To better explain, the above hypothesis is based on two parts of production (production industries) and Consumable (household, commercial, general; and transportation) has been investigated. Long-run results show that despite the fact that government size does not affect carbon dioxide emissions; the current cost ratio and developmental spending ratio of government respectively have a direct (undesirable) and reverse (favorable) effect on carbon dioxide emissions. In addition, the developmental spending ratio of government in both production and consumable sectors has a reverse effect on the carbon dioxide emissions of these sectors. However, the current cost ratio of government in both sectors does not have a significant effect. Energy intensity has a direct effect on carbon dioxide emissions in general format, and although the energy intensity of the production sector has no significant effect on the carbon dioxide emission ratio in this section but in the consumable sector, energy intensity is associated with direct (undesirable) effects on carbon dioxide emissions.
Davood Manzoor, Sajad Rajabi, Reza Ranjbaran,
Volume 12, Issue 43 (3-2021)
Abstract
With the outbreak of the coronavirus in countries around the world and its rapid spread, governments have decided to impose restrictions and social distancing. Restrictions and closures of businesses and economic activities, and changes in supply and demand patterns during this period, have exacerbated concerns among economists. This article deals with the issue of changing primary energy consumption in 18 countries in the MENA region. To this end, 10 different scenarios of the future state of the disease and its limitations have been considered. The results show that according to the best scenario (rapid and complete improvement of the epidemic), Libya with 4.38% and Iraq with 3.39% will have the largest decrease, and according to the worst-case scenario (explosive disease exacerbation and complete quarantine), Libya with 12.6% and Syria with 12.3% will have the greatest reduction in primary energy consumption. The three countries, Syria, Lebanon, and Iran, also had the most differences in the pessimistic and optimistic scenario. Also, taking into account the total changes in the primary energy consumption of these 18 countries, according to the most optimistic scenario, the primary energy consumption will be reduced by 1.5% and according to the worst-case scenario, it will be reduced by 8.8%.
Mr Hossein Hafezi, Mr Siab Mamipour,
Volume 13, Issue 49 (12-2022)
Abstract
Climate change has emerged as a significant global challenge, with its impact increasing rapidly in recent decades. The consumption of fossil fuels, which leads to the emission of greenhouse gases like CO2, is a major contributor to climate change. Iran, ranked as the sixth most polluted country in the world, emitted a staggering 745 million tons of CO2 in 2020. Notably, the power plants sector in Iran accounts for roughly 30% of its total carbon emissions. As a result, the main objective of this paper is to engage in long-term planning for electricity supply and demand in Iran, aiming to reduce carbon emissions in line with the country's obligations under the Paris Agreement. To achieve this goal, we utilized the MESSAGE model to design an electricity generation system that takes into account the potential of renewable sources from 2021 to 2050. Additionally, the ARDL model was employed to estimate electricity demand under various scenarios, including subsidy reforms. These predictions were then incorporated into the long-term planning process for Iran's electricity supply system. The findings of the ARDL model highlight that the subsidy reform strategy leads to a 10% decrease in electricity demand throughout the planning period, indicating effective control over the demand side. On the other hand, the MESSAGE model's findings reveal that Iran's ability to fulfill its responsibilities under the Paris Agreement heavily relies on the utilization of renewable potentials across different regions in power supply planning. While carbon dioxide emissions in Iran's electrical sector are not expected to be reduced in the near future (2020 to 2030). However, in the long term (2040 to 2050), significant reductions in CO2 emissions can be achieved. According to the findings, if the electricity system in Iran is designed in accordance with a chosen scenario that incorporates green technologies and subsidy reforms, the share of renewable technologies can increase from 6% in 2020 to 15%, 50%, and 78% in 2030, 2040, and 2050, respectively. Consequently, carbon emissions in the power generation sector can be reduced by 20% and 54% in 2040 and 2050, respectively, compared to 2020 levels.
Dr. Mahdi Ghaemi Asl, Dr. Mohammad Nasr Esfahani, Ms. Elham Sadat Mirshafiei,
Volume 14, Issue 51 (5-2023)
Abstract
In this research, the behavior of the international Islamic capital market in the three periods before Corona, Corona and after Corona, as well as multi-fractal analysis is carried out on Sharia-compliant stock markets. Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MFDFA), Multiscale multi-fractal analysis (MMA), are the methods used in this study. We used the Dow Jones index data from 2011 to 2022, the variables are the emerging countries, developed countries, Asia Pacific, America and Europe. The research results shows that Corona has reduced the efficiency of all variables. In all periods, the variables are ineffective, except for the Asia variable in the pre-Corona period, developed countries and America in the post-Corona period. Also, all the variables had persistency in the Corona period. But in the pre-corona period, all the variables had an anti-persistency behavior, except for the variable of emerging countries, which had a persistence behavior, and the variable of Asia, which had a random behavior. In the post-corona period, all the variables have had an anti-persistence behavior, except for the variable of developed countries, which has had a random behavior.
Maryam Hajipour Apourvari, Mehdi Nejati, Mojtaba Bahmani, Sayyed Abdolmajid Jalaee,
Volume 14, Issue 51 (5-2023)
Abstract
The increase in greenhouse gas emissions is one of the crises in today's world. Because it doubles global warming and environmental pollution. The increase in greenhouse gas emissions has encouraged many countries to substitute renewable energy instead of fossil fuel. The effective use of green energy such as renewable energy and nuclear energy is highly dependent on the technology used in the production of this type of energy. For this reason, the aim of this study is to investigate the impact of importing information and communication technology goods on renewable energy production in Iran. In this research, has been used the Computable general equilibrium model based on the social accounting matrix of 2014. The results show that in all scenarios, the production of fossil electricity in both peak and base times, as well as the production of ICT goods, will decrease because with the release of the import of these goods, foreign ICT goods will replace domestic ones and the production of these goods will be domestic. Also, the production of other sectors has increased and the largest increase is related to the gas sector. By applying the first scenario (10 to 100% change in tariff, without change in the productivity of production factors related to the production of renewable energies), with the further reduction of the tariff, the production of renewable electricity will also decrease in both peak and base times, but when The fact that the import of ICT goods is accompanied by a 3, 5 and 7 percent increase in the productivity of the production factors related to the production of renewable energies (scenarios two to four) will increase the production of renewable electricity in the base load. The production of renewable electricity at peak load has decreased in all scenarios and the results do not change with the increase in efficiency. By reducing the tariff on the import of ICT goods, the amount of CO2 emissions will decrease. Also, as the productivity of the production factors related to the sector of renewable energy production increases, CO2 decreases to a greater extent. It should be noted that with the reduction of the tariff on the import of ICT goods, the price of the goods has decreased in the investigated sectors. As a result, reduce the pollution caused by the consumption of fossil fuels and use them optimally.
Dr. Mahboubeh Jafari, Ms Fatemeh Rashidi, Dr. دهقان شبانی Dehghan Shabani,
Volume 14, Issue 54 (2-2024)
Abstract
Promoting electricity generation from renewable energy sources has emerged as a cornerstone of sustainable development strategies worldwide to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and address the pressing challenges of climate change. This study aims to investigate the nonlinear relationship between the Productive Capacity Index (PCI) and renewable electricity generation across a sample of selected developing countries during the period 2000–2022. To this end, the dynamic panel threshold model proposed by Kremer et al. (2013) is utilized, as it enables the analysis of nonlinear interactions among variables in panel data while addressing potential endogeneity. Our findings reveal a non-linear relationship between PCI and renewable electricity generation. Importantly, the influence of PCI on the share of electricity generated from renewable sources intensifies beyond a specific threshold value. This implies that as PCI levels increase, their impact on clean energy production becomes more significant, emphasizing the importance of advancing productive capacities to accelerate the transition to renewable energy. Furthermore, the results underscore the critical role of several key factors in enhancing renewable electricity generation. Rising geopolitical risks, improved financial development, greater trade openness, and an increased share of gross fixed capital formation in GDP are identified as pivotal drivers that positively contribute to the expansion of renewable electricity generation. Conversely, weak environmental policies can significantly hinder this progress. Furthermore, the Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) panel causality test confirms the existence of a bidirectional causal relationship between the share of renewable electricity generation and the other explanatory variables. This study highlights the critical need to build and strengthen productive capacity to support the growth of renewable energy. The findings provide a valuable foundation for informed decision-making by policymakers and planners in developing nations.
Mr Reza Etesami, Mr Mostafa Lashkari, Dr Mohsen Madadi, Dr Reza Ashrafganjoei, Dr Mashallah Mashinchi,
Volume 14, Issue 54 (2-2024)
Abstract
Although many factors in economic growth and development are scientific, but the global impact and energy consumption have a prominent role in the economy according to the evidence. In the meantime, we should not ignore the consequences of environmental destruction. In the present study, the effect of uncertainty of globalization and energy consumption on CO2 gas emission has been investigated with the help of fuzzy regression model with symmetric and asymmetric coefficient for the time period of 1369-1400. According to the average scale of the phased vessel model, the three boundaries and the bottom are calculated for each of the investigated changes under different uncertainty conditions using the particle swarm algorithm. Examining the effect of the limits related to the uncertainty of globalization and energy consumption on the amount of CO2 gas emissions indicates that as the degree of membership approaches 0.1 to the degree of membership 0.9, first, the amount of CO2 gas emissions up to be Membership increased by 0.4 and then decreased in a downward trend of CO2 emissions. This impressive trend is also true for the middle and lower limits. From this, it can be stated that the effect of the uncertainty of energy consumption on the amount of CO2 emissions is similar to an inverted U. It is noteworthy that the trend of energy consumption compared to globalization increases the amount of CO2 emissions, so it can be said that the amount of CO2 emissions is not the result of the refugee hypothesis.
Dr Mohammad Hosein Karim, Dr Mohammad Sayadi, Mr Saeed Solgi, Mr Mohammadreza Ariafar,
Volume 14, Issue 54 (2-2024)
Abstract
The main purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of factors affecting the ecological footprint with an emphasis on the role of energy consumption intensity in Iran using the Vector Autoregression Model with Variable Parameters Over Time (TVP-VAR). The ecological footprint reflects the environmental constraints of communities and the extent to which the environment is destroyed by exceeding these limitations. Due to the increasing intensity of energy consumption, Iran is faced with a significant ecological footprint in its economic activities, which requires the root causes of the factors affecting it. Other research variables include the degree of urbanization, human development, financial development, trade openness, and GDP per capita in the period from 1990 to 2021. The results show that increasing the intensity of energy consumption causes a positive and significant increase over time on the ecological footprint. The effect of other research variables on the ecological footprint was also in accordance with theoretical expectations. These findings emphasize that the type and source of energy consumed, as well as the production processes, play an important role in this relationship. Also, the analyses show that environmental sustainability decreases with increasing energy consumption and the ecological footprint of
Mr Mojtaba Khani, Dr Ali Asghar Esmailnia Ketabi, Dr Ghodratollah Emamverdi, Dr Hooshang Momeni,
Volume 15, Issue 56 (8-2024)
Abstract
Study and modeling for appropriate planning and policy-making in the energy sector to ensure energy security (security of supply for consumers of crude oil and natural gas;security of demand for exporting economic enterprises) and consequently ensuring maximum intergenerational benefits is of great importance. Iran is a producer and exporter of oil and gas; and in such countries, the economy generally relies on oil and gas revenues. Naturally, it is necessary to maximize the profit from oil and gas revenues through planning for optimal production from oil and gas fields as a necessity. In this study, prioritizing the optimal solutions for allocating natural gas to various sectors including construction, industry (petrochemicals), transportation (in the form of compressed natural gas), power generation, export, injection into oil wells to increase recovery, relying on modeling the production chain, supply, natural gas injection in the oil field, and the added value from the injection, has been investigated by LEAP software, taking into account real and operational constraints, taking into account the South Pars gas source
Mrs Shadi Alizadeh, Dr Parvaneh Salatin, Dr Fatemeh Zandi, Dr Shahriar Nasabian,
Volume 15, Issue 57 (11-2024)
Abstract
Food security, as an indicator of macroeconomic stability, is the fundamental foundation of countries' economic security and one of the most important prerequisites for sustainable development.
On the other hand, food production and distribution are energy-intensive, and energy is essential for achieving food security.
In this regard, the main objective of this study is to examine the impact of energy security on food security in a selected group of Middle Eastern countries. The results using spatial econometrics in the period 2000-2023 showed that access to electricity as an indicator of energy security has a positive and significant impact on food security in the selected group of Middle Eastern countries. With a one percent increase in access to electricity, on average, assuming other conditions are constant, food security increased by 0.1384 units in the selected group of Middle Eastern countries. The direct and indirect effects of energy are also positive, meaning that increased access to electricity has not only improved food security in the selected group of Middle Eastern countries, but its spillover effects have also moderately improved food security in neighboring countries.
