Journal of Economic Modeling Research

Many governments face a trade-off between health and economy during the coronavirus pandemic. Social distancing and lockdown caused decline in gross domestic product of coronavirus affected countries. In this study, by using the input-output table of 2011, the hypothetical extraction method is used to extract 10 selected economic activities hypothetically from economic system and examine the direct and indirect effect of this extraction on Iran’s gross output. Results show that extraction of passenger transport, aviculture and clothing sectors result in the greatest reductions in gross domestic product. Furthermore, extraction of accommodation services, travel agency and tour operator activities and foodservice industry as representative of the tourism sector is able to reduce total output by almost one percent. Considering these ten selected sectors, 6.5 percent of Iran’s total economic output would be impacted by coronavirus outbreak.

Due to the undesirable phenomenon of graduate unemployment and its negative effects, Addressing the issue of how to major choice is of particular importance. The main question of the research is whether the existing signals of choosing a field have been effective in guiding people in accordance with the needs of the labor market? The method of this research is descriptive-analytical; It has been a combination of documentary studies, qualitative statistical analysis (descriptive statistics) and analytical statistics (cross-sectional econometrics). The findings of this study, which was conducted using the data of the years (2006-2018) and controlled by the province and the type of university, show in major choice of volunteers, no attention is paid to the unemployment rate of that field. The non-significance of the unemployment rate coefficient in the above model confirms the hypothesis that the unemployment rate of the field (main independent variable) does not explain the registration rate in that field (dependent variable), Therefore, the unemployment rate of the field in any of the six fields, in any type of universities and in any of the provinces, has no significant effect on the rate of major choice. According to the theoretical and experimental background of research in many other countries, there is a problem and weakness and they have followed solutions for it.

Considering the challenges related to estimating and forecasting the expected Shortfall dynamically and with a semi-parametric approach, in this study, providing a general framework, dynamic semi-parametric models in forecasting Expected Shortfall in Tehran Stock Exchange be introduced and evaluated. In this regard, the data of the period 2008.12.04-2020.08.26 and Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) approach are used to introducing dynamic semi-parametric models (GAS-2F, GAS-1F, GARCH-FZ and hybrid). Then expected Shortfall (ES) in Tehran Stock Exchange be estimated  and forecasting performance of these models are compared with traditional models in this field, including GARCH models and rolling window models based on backtesting their results. The results of this study indicate better performance of dynamic semi-parametric models in forecasting the expected Shortfall (ES) than competing models. In addition, the GAS-1F model has shown the best performance among all models.

The change of theoretical base in the area of welfare economy and due to economic evolution along time, in recent decades happiness has been considered as an important index for measuring welfare in individual and social levels along with other initial proxies such as wealth, consumption, gross domestic production. This particularly has attracted many economists attention such that they investigate the impact of economic variables on happiness. Government is an unclear and effective factor over nations happiness. Because government functions in expanding happiness through two channels. Direct channel and indirect channel. Therefore, the impact of governance over happiness increase is significant. This study is using panel data for investigating the impact of governance over happiness. Six Kaufmann governance indices has been used for assessing 112 nations governance in time period of (2006-2019). These six indices have been divided into two sub-index technical quality and democratic quality and has been evaluated by three equations. Also the sample was divided in two groups and the impact of governance on happiness was studied carefully. Income variable along with two control variables government expenditures and misery index were added to the function. These study findings indicate that there is a positive relationship between increase in income, governance improvement and happiness expansion. The effectiveness of governance quality in parallel with increasing happiness is considerable to democracy quality. This result is confirmed in all poor and rich nations, and its impact on poor nations is more than the rich ones. Income has significant direct effect on expanding happiness. Income coefficients are positive in each 3 group and for the poor is greater than the rich. Two control variables government expenses and misery index in all countries have positive and negative relationship with happiness respectively. The existent relationship holds for rich nations, but the coefficient of government expenses for poor nations is negative. On this basis, it can be said that governments have a significant and undeniable role in promoting the level of happiness in society by improving the quality of governance and reducing the misery index in the economy. Also the significance of gross domestic production and economic growth should not be ignored.

The results showed that  these parameters are fully matched with the theoretical properties of the model and the principals utility is maximum beside the agent participation.

Achieving reality-based valuation of innovative companies is an undeniable challenge for the founders and investors of innovation. The purpose of this study is to model a logical, innovative and scalable approach to valuing innovative companies. In this way, by selecting the Earning Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) of the studied innovative company, as a state variable and simulating its future income flows based on Arithmetic Brownian Motion (ABM) standard and using the framework of Real Option Valuation (ROV) method, the valuation model was created. The accuracy and efficiency of this model was proved by extracting the data of the fiscal years from 1392 to 1395 of Gamron Petro Industry Exchange Company and comparing the results of the model with the market value of the company in Tehran Stock Exchange. On the other hand, in order to test the effect of real interest rate on the model results, by defining three different values of real interest rate, the effect of real interest rate fluctuation on the model evaluation results was investigated. Thus, the high flexibility of the model using the method of real option valuation is fully reflected in the research results.

The status of income distribution is economically important because other macroeconomic variables, especially savings rates, affect the amount of investment and aggregate demand in different markets, and are politically a measure of government efficiency in attracting voters. The present study aims to investigate the macroeconomic variables affecting inequality in income distribution in the two groups of middle-income countries and high-income countries based on the International Monetary Fund classification. For this purpose, the annual data of economic complexity, scientific productivity, political risk, economic risk, and financial risk and the period 2019-2000 and the panel method have been used. The results show that in high-income countries, increasing economic complexity and scientific productivity reduces income inequality, while in middle-income countries, increasing scientific productivity reduces income inequality, but increasing economic complexity increases income inequality. Reducing political risk in both groups reduces income inequality; While reducing financial risk reduces income inequality in high-income countries, it increases income inequality in middle-income countries. The impact of economic risk on income inequality is also negligible in high-income countries, while in middle-income countries the impact of economic risk on income inequality is very strong, and reducing economic risk in this group of countries strongly reduces income inequality.

Development of the entrepreneurship space by helping to nurture entrepreneurs and increase the attitudes, abilities and aspirstions for entrepreneurship has a positive effect on the economic and social growth of societies. Because entrepreneurship is a source of innovation, employment, and economic growth and development. Therefore, determine the factors affecting of the entrepreneurship space is important in the economics and management disciplines. In this regard, the present study attempted to investigate the interactive impact of risk institution including political, economic and financial risks and abundance of natural resources on entrepreneurship space in resource-rich selected countries during the period 2014-2018. In order to achieve this goal, the research model was estimated using panel data approach and generalized moment method in two groups of countries. The results showed that the individual impact of political, economic and financial risks and the abundance of natural resources on the entrepreneurship space in the selected countries were negative and significant. Also, the interactive impact of political, economic and financial risks with the abundance of natural resources on the entrepreneurship space in the selected countries is negative and significant. However, the estimated coefficient of their interactive impact is larger than the estimated coefficient of their individual impact. Also, the impact of control variables gender gap and unemployment rate on the entrepreneurship space is negative and significant, and the impact of intellectual property rights on the entrepreneurship space is positive and significant.

There is a situation that due to economic shocks and imbalances in structural budgets and its continuation leads to stress in governments in uncertainty conditions. Fiscal stress as a volatile situation in financing of local governments can exacerbate the inability of governments to meet short-term and long-term fiscal commitments and excessive dependence on the central government. So the positive and negative effects of stress are related to the actions and responses of central and local governments. It is essential that policymakers in central and local governments pay attention to accurate and timely signs of fiscal stress for respond to stresses effects. In this study, we tried to clarify the fiscal situation in 31 provinces of Iran by calculating the local fiscal stress index from variables of fiscal structure and budget of each province and then estimate the threshold and spatial effects of the index through Panel Smooth Transition Regression method on economic growth and employment over the period 2005-2017. The results show that border provinces have the highest stress among other provinces, and provinces located in the center or near the capital have less stress. These results indicate the high centralism that exists in the provinces of Iran and has hindered the fiscal independence of local governments so that they can control and regulate their own revenues and expenditures, and in this case, they suffer less fiscal pressure and stress.

Price, as an element of marketing, plays an essential role in the decision-making of tourists as well as the income of tourism activists. Therefore, it is essential to identify the components and factors affecting the pricing process. The outbreak of COVID-19 in Iran has drawn the attention of tourism businesses to the necessity of the pricing process and updating the price of tourism products. We examined the pricing components of tourism products by qualitative-quantitative approach and using fuzzy cognitive mapping.  We identified 29 pricing factors of tourism products using the opinion of 9 tourism experts. In the next step, 18 factors were selected in 4 dimensions using semi-structured interviews. Finally, we identified the most important components of tourism products’ pricing during the COVID-19 outbreak. The findings indicate that four components of cost coverage and loss prevention, purchasing power, survival in the tourism market, and the extent of tourist demand are more important than other components during the coronavirus outbreak.

Today, the unconventional policy of negative interest rate is discussed in many Western societies and developed countries, and the implementation of this policy in the financial and banking system has brought growth and prosperity in many economies involved in the crisis. In fact, by applying a negative interest rate, the bank will be able to direct credit allocation to productive and priority sectors. On the other hand, this policy, along with the independence of the central bank and the non-interference of the government in creating liquidity and making money from it, can reduce the level of inflation. Iran is a developing country with high inflation, and the interest rate as a monetary policy will not be very effective in the economy and is determined by the monetary authorities under the government's rule. When governments face budget deficits due to sanctions and lack of revenue sources, they create money by relying on their supervision over the performance of the central bank and use it as a solution to earn money, Therefore, it fuels inflation in the society. Therefore, in this research, within the framework of the optimization model of the money demand function and the model of money in the utility function, taken from the study of Walsh (2003) and Sidrauski (1967) and its extension, we will investigate the behavior of negative interest rates on inflation and optimal money interest. The obtained results show that in the environment of money interest and inflation, with the application of negative nominal interest rate, the equilibrium path has a downward and decreasing trend, and in this situation, inflation and money interest will decrease in the long term. Therefore, the government has the ability to compensate for its budget deficit through solutions such as bonds and income tax, and in the long term, by reducing the money interest rate, it can reduce the level of inflation in the society and this will improve the social welfare of people.

Higher Education (HE) in Iran have been subject to a major expansion and massification in the recent years, in a way that number of students approximately tripled from 2006 to 2016. This would have possibly affected labor market or unemployment rate of the country. Considering both provincial and national level, this study investigates the relationship between HE expansion and unemployment rate in the recent era (2006-2018) empirically. In this regard, number of assignments, students, and the state budget allocated to HE institutions are taken as variables indicating HE expansion so that their relationship with unemployment rate can be explored. The empirical methodology of this study in national level is to consider trends and calculating correlations for different lags. In provincial level, Granger causality and dynamic panel data regression with systemic GMM estimators are utilized as methods of the analysis. The results show a positive significant correlation exists between the state budget of HE and unemployment rate. Moreover, in provincial level, number of students and assignments Granger cause unemployment in some lags. Dynamic panel data model with numerous specifications also approve a positive significant relationship between HE expansion in provinces and their unemployment rate, however, the effect is not the same considering different models, especially for number of students.

Based on theoretical foundations and empirical studies in the field of the relationship between natural resources and internal conflict, 4 states can be imagined: a. Positive relationship between natural resources abundance and internal conflict (hypothesis of political resources curse) b. positive relationship between natural resources scarcity and internal conflict (hypothesis of political resources endowment) c. Non-linear relationship between natural resources and internal conflict (combination of state A and B) d. Absence of relationship. Based on this, the main purpose of this article is to investigate the relationship between natural resources types and internal conflict risk in the MENAP region countries during the period of 2000-2019 using the System Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM). For this purpose, the index of the percentage share of total natural resource rent from GDP and eight separate indicators including: the percentage share of oil, natural gas, coal, forest and mining rent from GDP, the percentage share of fuel export and the export of ore and metals from the export of goods and the percentage share of arable land in the total area have been used. The results show that there is a U-shaped relationship between the total rent of natural resources and the internal conflict risk; In other words, countries with a shortage of natural resources as well as countries with an abundance of natural resources have a higher internal conflict risk than other countries. This U-shaped relationship is also confirmed for oil rent and fuel export. Also, coal and forest rent have a meaningless effect and arable land has an inverted U effect on the internal conflict risk in the studied countries. The evaluation of the marginal effect of the total rent of natural resources on the internal conflict risk shows that its value varies from -0.08 to 0.1. According to the other results, per capita income and democracy have a negative and significant effect, and population and religious and racial tensions have a positive and significant effect on the internal conflict risk.

The corona pandemic is a phenomenon that has caused a crisis in the world due to its rapid spread and unstoppable nature. This crisis, however, seems to have a purely medical and health-related nature. But it is a multidimensional phenomenon which effects and consequences can be studied and evaluated in various fields.The purpose of this study is to propose an appropriate approach in implementing the choice experiment method from the perspective of heterogeneity expressed in individuals’ preferences. In the present study, using the choice experiment method, the factors influencing the selection of individuals from the options of the selection sets (including mental illness, unemployment, change in social activities, family problems, concerns about social discriminations) have been identified. Because in choice experiment some respondents may not consider all the features or levels provided; This causes heterogeneity in the behavior of respondents. To investigate the effect of this heterogeneity on the selection process of different individuals in the sample population (Tehran), in this study, a new approach of endogenous attribute attendance in the logit model was used. The information required for the research was obtained by completing 384 questionnaires completely randomly by different people in 2021. The results of estimating the two logit models in terms of endogenous attribute attendance (EAA) and conditional logit indicate that the average tendency to Payment for features defined in the model (EAA) is higher than the conditional logit model.