Showing 48 results for Panel
Manizheh Bratzadeh, Javad Harati, Mohammad Lashkari,
Volume 9, Issue 33 (10-2018)
Abstract
Money laundering is an illegal practice that legitimizes the income from illegal activities during a legitimate process.Trade-based money laundering (TBML) as one of the newest and most complicated types of money laundering has negative effects on economic, social and political aspect of a society.The most important objective of the present study is to investigate the effect of various factors on trade based money laundering in Iran using the Ferwerda Gravity model.For this purpose the effective factors on trade base money laundering between iran and some selected trade partners are investigated by the use of a random effect model during the period 1999-2012. The results indicate that a great significant part of the trade based money laundering flow between Iran and selected trade partners can be explained by the the Ferwerda Gravity model. Accordingly, gorss doimestic product(GDP), trade volume, geographical, cultural, population and attractiveness variables have a significant effect on the amount of trade based money laundering in Iran.This means that with the increase in trade flow, money laundering opportunities resulted from the trade channel, that is hidden in it, will also increase. These results can be used by policy makers for designing policies to combat money laundering particularly coming from trade channel.
Hengame Hendizadeh, Alireza Karbasi, Toktam Mohtashami, Hossein Mohamadzadeh,
Volume 9, Issue 33 (10-2018)
Abstract
One of the factors that have a significant impact on the economic development of countries is reliance on foreign trade, and due to the dependence of countries on export earnings and the import of foreign trade, it plays an essential and indisputable role in the growth and development of different sectors. Foreign trade in agricultural products has an important role in expanding the export and import of various countries due to its high and stable value. Among the agricultural products, saffron is one of the most important export commodities of agriculture, which contributes greatly to the creation of agricultural value added. This study examines and analyzes Saffron's foreign trade network among 11 active countries including Iran in this area. The required data and statistics were collected during the years 2007-2016. Considering the geographical dispersion of the studied countries, a spatial panel model was used to analyze the factors affecting the value of saffron trade. The results of estimating OLS methods, spatial interruption and spatial error showed that import price variables per gram, export price per gram, export volume, export standards index, gross domestic product, exchange rate and government support index in agricultural sector is significant and has a positive effect on the value of trade. Positive and significant spatial dependency coefficient shows that neighborhood is an important role in increasing or decreasing trade. This means that, as long as the value of saffron trade in neighboring countries increases, the value of trade in the target country will increase as the size of the coefficient.
Aziz Arman, Mis Batool Azari Beni,
Volume 9, Issue 34 (12-2018)
Abstract
Fluctuations in housing prices in recent years in Iran has always been one of the most important economic issues on the economic welfare changes affect lifetime. In this paper, the effects of housing on the dynamics of income generations age is examined. This phenomenon type of model is designed to assess the generation of data building. The model is designed household budget generations by combining cross-sectional data from households in the years 2007 to 2015 are tracking. In this research, in order to clarify the contents of the review results in four steps without shock and shock 5, 10 and 15 percent reported. The results show that the average income of households without shock reduced from 86 years to 89 and then 89 years with little speed has increased, although the increase in revenue in less than 86 years is 90 years. As well as small shock in 2007 has led to middle income households in that year and the following years than before the occurrence of shocks is reduced. While the occurrence of a great shock (15%) reduces the average household income has been greatly. This could mean that in the event of a large shock of vulnerable households are barely able to restore income dropped while repairing a small shock is possible.
Mohammad Reza Monjazeb, Leyla Dehgani,
Volume 10, Issue 37 (10-2019)
Abstract
Life insurance is one of the most important economic instruments. Considering the important role of life insurance, this study investigates the life insurance capability in Iran. For this purpose, the Panel ARDL model has been used. Then, for the period 1990-2016, suitable models for the first group (Iran with the leading countries in the industry), the second group (Iran with the countries that were close to Iran in premiums) and the group Third (countries in two groups) were estimated. Based on models, the fitted value of life insurance premiums per capita in Iran is analyzed and compared as the potential or optimal level in each groups. The results showed that in each group, the actual life insurance premiums per capita in Iran are significantly lower than the optimal level. The capacity level of life insurance in Iran compared with first group is 46%, and compared with second group is about 42% and compared with third group is about 44%. The results indicate that Life insurance in our country has a high potential, and a large part of the insurance capacity in our country has not yet been fully acquired.
Alireza Kazerouni, Hosein Asgharpour, Ali Aghamohamadi, Elham Zokaei Alamdari,
Volume 10, Issue 37 (10-2019)
Abstract
This study examines the relationship between per capita income and per capita dioxide emissions in the form of a new definition of the Environmental Kuznets Curve, to investigate how corruption influences the income level at the turning point of the relationship between per capita dioxide emissions and income, in developed and developing countries the period 1994-2013 through the use of a panel data model. Our results support the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis for developed countries and existence of an U-shaped relation for developing countries. We find evidence that the higher the country's degree of corruption, the higher the per capita income at the turning point for developed countries and the lower the per capita income at the turning point for developing countries than when corruption is not accounted for. Also, the share of renewable energy in both groups of countries has a negative and significant effect on per capita dioxide emissions, but the positive effect of urbanization rate in developed countries is significant and in developing countries is not.
Abolfazl Shahabadi, Hossein Raghfar, Neda Solgi, Ali Moradi,
Volume 10, Issue 38 (12-2019)
Abstract
Insurance as a central risk-taking institution as well as one of the investment institutions increases economic participation, investment development and stimulating economic growth. Therefore, identification of the effective factors on the insurance penetration in developing countries seems necessary. In this regard, the present study attempted to investigate the impact of national competitiveness on insurance penetration coefficient in 20 developing countries during the period 2007-2017. The research model was estimated using panel data and generalized moment’s method in two case. In the first case, the sub-indicators of national competitiveness including basic requirements, efficiency enhancer’s factors and innovation and sophistication factors were used as key variables in the research, and in the second case, the overall competitiveness index is used as a key variable in the research model. The results showed that the effect of overall competitiveness index and its sub-indicators on insurance penetration was positive and significant. Also, the effect of control variables, including per capita income and urbanization rate on insurance penetration is positive and significant, and the effect of dependency ratio on insurance penetration is negative and significant.
Ali Kiani, Karim Eslamloueyan, Phd Roohollah Shahnazi, Parviz Rostamzadeh,
Volume 10, Issue 38 (12-2019)
Abstract
In recent years, some research has focused on the importance of the origin of an oil shock for macroeconomic dynamics in both oil-exporting and importing countries. The existing literature lacks a proper open Stochastic Dynamic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework to investigate the effect of the origins of oil shocks on macro variables in a two-country model consisting of an oil-exporting county and an oil-importing country. To this end, we develop and solve a new Keynesian DSGE model to show how the different oil shocks originating from oil supply or oil demand, might have diverse impacts on key macroeconomic variables in oil-exporting and importing counties. For the case study, we use data from Iran as an example of an oil-exporting country that trades with the rest of the world. Our DSGE model is estimated by using the Bayesian method for the period 1986:1-2017:4. The result shows that an oil shock originated from the shortage of oil supply (an exogenous decrease in Iran's oil production) decreases total production, non-oil trade, employment, inflation and consumption in this oil-exporting country. While a negative oil supply shock increases production costs and reduces production and consumption in Iran. However, an oil shock originated from an increase in the demand for oil raises output, non-oil trade, employment, consumption, and inflation in Iran as an oil-exporting country while a demand-side oil shock boosts production and increases inflation in this country.
Jafar Zhilaei Aghdam, Ali Reza Daghighiasli, Marjan Daman Kashide, Ali Asmailpor Magari,
Volume 11, Issue 40 (6-2020)
Abstract
The relationship between external debt and economic growth is one of the important issues in macroeconomics literature and has been considered in empirical studies. So, in this paper the long-run relationship among external government debt and economic growth in 58 selected developing countries for 1985-2018 by applying a pool mean group method which is suggested by Pesaran & Smith. The main empirical results showed that there is a long-run relationship between external debt and economic growth. Also, increase in growth in selected countries in addition to the influence of produce factors, labor, capital stock and monetary policy, influence of public debt. Also, capital stock, open economic, financial balance and saving variables has positive effect and population growth and Government revenue has negative effect on economic growth.
Hassan Dargahi, Mojtaba Ghasemi, Sajjad Fatollahi,
Volume 11, Issue 40 (6-2020)
Abstract
This study investigates the relation between bounced checks and economic growth through the banking credit risk channel by estimation of a simultaneous equation system with panel data for 31 Iranian provinces covers the years from 2011 to 2015. For this purpose, after identifying determinants of the bounced checks, the relations of this variable with the non-performing loans, banking loans and economic growth are evaluated. The results confirm the positive relationship between the bounced checks to GDP ratio and the prices index, whereas the impacts of output deviation from trend and the index of enforcement of laws on the bounced checks are negative. In times of stagflation, with the decreasing possibility of defaults, the bounced checks tend to grow. Also, with the development of legal and judicial system in the country with a view to boosting institutional and governance quality, the number of bounced checks decreases on the scale of economic activities. On the other hand, the number of bounced checks after fixing the control variables will lead to an increase of non-performing loans and the bank credit risk. Meanwhile the impact of bank loans on economic growth through the productivity channel is meaningful and positive. Therefore, in the Iranian economy the increase of bounced checks through the channel of bank loaning power will have a negative influence on economic growth.
Samaneh Mohamadkhani, Mohammad Hassan Fotros, Mohamad Mowlaei,
Volume 11, Issue 41 (10-2020)
Abstract
The importance of non-oil exports and their role in the economic growth and development of countries has always been discuss as an important issue in the economy. Meanwhile, the role of high-tech exports in the growth of developed countries has been significant and developing countries, in order to succeed in the growth of production and export of their industrial goods under the constraint of globalization, have no choice but to increase production and export of high-tech products, use more advanced production techniques and save on production costs. This is especially true in the case of Iran, which has always faced the problem of macroeconomic indicators due to its dependence on oil revenues and the destructive impact of oil revenues on political and economic issues, especially the issue of oil sanctions. In this regard, the aim of the present study was to investigate the factors affecting the export of high-tech products based on the four-digit ISIC codes in Iran in the period 1397-1375 using the ARDL Panel method.
The results of the study show that the costs of domestic research and development, foreign accumulation of research and development and commercialization in the short and long term, and the degree of openness of the economy and human capital in the long run have a positive and significant effect on high-tech exports in Iran. Also, the exchange rate in the short term has no meaningless effect and in the long run has no negative and significant effect, and inventions in the short and long term have no significant effect on the export of these products.
Yahya Soleimanimagham, Younes Nademi, Mehdi Chegeni,
Volume 11, Issue 42 (12-2020)
Abstract
Crime is a phenomenon that exists in all societies and affects the useful functioning of different parts of a country. Also, Iranian society is not safe from the harms of this phenomenon. Given the destructive effects of crime in society, recognizing the factors affecting it makes it possible to fight it more effectively. For this purpose, this study has investigated the effect of misery index on the rate of theft in 30 provinces of the country during the years 2008-2018. In order to achieve this goal, the Panel generalized method of moment (GMM) has been used. The findings of this study have shown that the misery index has an increasing effect on the crime of theft. In other words, the misery index through the two channels of inflation and unemployment has destructive effects on people's living standards and puts them on the path of committing crimes such as theft.
Shahryar Zaroki, Mastaneh Yadolahi Otaghsara, Arman Yousefi Barfurushi,
Volume 11, Issue 42 (12-2020)
Abstract
The lack of social security supports and labor market laws in informal employment has strengthened the expectation that poverty in a family in which the head of the household chooses informal employment is greater than in a family in which the head of the household works in the formal sector. Hence, this study attempts to investigate the effect of informal employment with other factors affecting household’s poverty. To this aim, by using the microdata plan of costs and incomes of urban and rural households in 2018, first, the poverty line was calculated based on 66% of the average annual household expenditures by provincial division for urban and rural areas; and poor households were identified as well. Then, according to the presented index in this study, heads of households' employment types were formally and informally determined. In the primary data processing, a comparison between households with employed heads showed that the highest poverty rates were for households whose heads work in informal employment. Next, the estimation of the research model with the dependent variable limited to the basis of pseudo-panel data and random effects in logistic regression was performed in a separate format for 13248 urban households and 13115 rural households in 31 provinces. The results showed that the informal employment of the head of the households has a direct effect on the possibility of household poverty and the rate of influence in urban areas is higher than in rural areas. Furthermore, the head of the household's education, age, and gender have an indirect effect; and the square number of age and size of the household variables have a direct effect on the probability of household poverty. In such a way that the desired effect of education and age, and the undesired effect of the household dimension on the probability of household poverty in urban areas is greater than in rural areas.
Mohammad Noferesty, Mehdi Yazdany, Fahimeh Mohebbinia,
Volume 11, Issue 42 (12-2020)
Abstract
Over the past decade, Iran's economy has undergone a major and rapid experience of currency changes. One of the most important questions during the currency changes of the last decade is to answer the important question of how much the devaluation of the Rial has led to an increase in domestic prices and the extent to which these effects affect various dimensions of the domestic economy. Measuring the range of price changes in response to currency changes can be found in the phenomenon of currency transitions. The aim of this study is to analyze the inflationary effects of foreign exchange passage on the levels of imported and producer prices at different stages of production and separately in the productive sectors of the economy and also to determine the effective factors in foreign exchange passage by resorting to supply side variables in Iran's economy. The present study presents a new approach for measuring exchange rate crossings on production chains by combining econometric tools and Input-Output table in embedding and separating the estimation of exchange rate pass coefficients in two stages on import and producer prices. Industry by using the tools of Input-Output table segmentation and considering variables based on information specific to each economic sector, such as; The import sector, the export sector, the production of each sector, provide sector linkages in estimating the exchange rate passage in the Iranian economy. These measures are based on three types of time series analysis, Input-Output analysis and Panel data analysis from 1986 to 2017. Findings of the research in stage 1 indicate the high dependence of many industrial and economic sectors of Iran on imports and low elasticity of imports to the exchange rate and no substitution by domestic products. In the second stage, the coefficients of exchange rate passage on the producer are positive and significant in almost all economic sectors, and this fact confirms the effectiveness of the producer price index in the Iranian economy from changes in the exchange rate (through imports). also; The passage of the exchange rate on producer prices varies between different years in different sectors, and in some economic sectors these changes have increased over time, which indicates the increasing dependence and increasing impact of import prices on producer prices over time. It is in the policies adopted. Also, the results in stage 3 indicate a negative and significant effect of export share coefficients and the natural logarithm of domestic production and have a positive and significant effect of share coefficients of intermediate import inputs and inter-sectoral linkages, but the share of intermediate imports among other variables. It has the highest impact on the exchange rate of economic sectors
Dr Hassan Daliri,
Volume 12, Issue 43 (3-2021)
Abstract
Identifying the behavior of business cycles and factors affecting business cycles has always been one of the most important issues in macroeconomics. Importance of business cycles and the unique economic structure of OPEC member countries, so, this article identifies the behavior of business cycles in these countries. This study uses Quantile Panel Regressions Model to examine the impact of variables such as government expenditure, trade openness, liquidity growth, oil prices and two dummy variables of the global recession and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement on the formation of business cycles in OPEC countries in the period 2000-2019. The results show that the values of the coefficients of each variable in different quantiles were significantly different from each other. Government expenditure and trade openness in the initial quantile has been in the agreed direction to the cycles and the End quantile opposite direction. The results of the effect of liquidity growth show that in the initial and end quantile has been agreed with direction to the cycles and in the middle quantile opposite direction to the cycles. Oil prices have also been agreed with the direction of the business cycles. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement variable in the first quantile has a significant impact on business cycles and the global financial recession has also acted against cycles.
Mohsen Tartar, Hamid Sepehrdoust, Ali Akbar Gholizadeh,
Volume 12, Issue 45 (11-2021)
Abstract
The status of income distribution is economically important because other macroeconomic variables, especially savings rates, affect the amount of investment and aggregate demand in different markets, and are politically a measure of government efficiency in attracting voters. The present study aims to investigate the macroeconomic variables affecting inequality in income distribution in the two groups of middle-income countries and high-income countries based on the International Monetary Fund classification. For this purpose, the annual data of economic complexity, scientific productivity, political risk, economic risk, and financial risk and the period 2019-2000 and the panel method have been used. The results show that in high-income countries, increasing economic complexity and scientific productivity reduces income inequality, while in middle-income countries, increasing scientific productivity reduces income inequality, but increasing economic complexity increases income inequality. Reducing political risk in both groups reduces income inequality; While reducing financial risk reduces income inequality in high-income countries, it increases income inequality in middle-income countries. The impact of economic risk on income inequality is also negligible in high-income countries, while in middle-income countries the impact of economic risk on income inequality is very strong, and reducing economic risk in this group of countries strongly reduces income inequality.
Davood Manzoor,
Volume 12, Issue 46 (12-2021)
Abstract
Higher Education (HE) in Iran have been subject to a major expansion and massification in the recent years, in a way that number of students approximately tripled from 2006 to 2016. This would have possibly affected labor market or unemployment rate of the country. Considering both provincial and national level, this study investigates the relationship between HE expansion and unemployment rate in the recent era (2006-2018) empirically. In this regard, number of assignments, students, and the state budget allocated to HE institutions are taken as variables indicating HE expansion so that their relationship with unemployment rate can be explored. The empirical methodology of this study in national level is to consider trends and calculating correlations for different lags. In provincial level, Granger causality and dynamic panel data regression with systemic GMM estimators are utilized as methods of the analysis. The results show a positive significant correlation exists between the state budget of HE and unemployment rate. Moreover, in provincial level, number of students and assignments Granger cause unemployment in some lags. Dynamic panel data model with numerous specifications also approve a positive significant relationship between HE expansion in provinces and their unemployment rate, however, the effect is not the same considering different models, especially for number of students.
Dr. Shahryar Zaroki, Dr. Mani Motameni, Mis. Niloofar Gorgani Firoozjah,
Volume 13, Issue 48 (9-2022)
Abstract
The aim of this study was to analyze the effect of commodity group expenditures on the probability of urban and rural household poverty in Iran. First, using household expenditure-income data in 1399, the poverty line was calculated based on the method of 66% of the average per capita expenditure, which is higher than urban households than rural households. In the following, the research model is limited by a dependent variable and is estimated based on pseudo-panel data in logistic regression by random effects method. The results showed that the expenditures of the communication group have the greatest impact on the probability of household poverty in urban and rural areas and the impact of this group of goods in urban areas is greater than rural areas. In contrast, hotel and restaurant costs in urban areas have a greater positive effect on reducing the likelihood of household poverty than in rural areas. But the cost of durable goods in urban areas, transportation in rural areas, and the cost of recreation and cultural affairs do not have a significant effect on the likelihood of household poverty. There is also no significant difference between the impact of furniture and household appliances, clothing and footwear and health care in urban and rural areas. Between social characteristics of the household, variables of gender and education have a negative effect on the probability of poverty and variables of household dimension and marital status have a direct effect on the probability of poverty of urban households, but these variables have no significant effect on the probability of poverty of rural households.
Mehdi Shirafkan Lamsoo,
Volume 13, Issue 48 (9-2022)
Abstract
'space economy' It is the general theory of locating all economic activities in which the geographical distribution of inputs (Intermediate or production factors) and geographical distribution of output (intermediate and final consumption markets), Along with spatial changes, prices and costs are considered. In this concept, the general equilibrium approach in terms of transportation costs and distance is suggested for economic analysis.. Due to the fact that in this approach, several factors influence the creation of balance. The aim of the current research is to model the factors affecting the economy of space in Iranian metropolises (Tehran, Karaj, Qom, Isfahan, Mashhad, Shiraz, Tabriz and Ahvaz) using the Markov switching panel approach. Based on the results of provincial added value; public investment; Higher education as a representative of the knowledge economy in the province and the share of the urban population, which indicates the degree of industrialization of the examined cities had a positive effect on investment in space, and the variables of the share of old age in the total population of the province and inflation had a negative effect on investment in this variable; Also, based on the results of the major research on investment in the field of space in the big cities of Iran except Tehran and Karaj in recent years, which coincides with the boom years in the estimation model; It has been done.
Dr. Mohammad Hassanzadeh, Mrs Mina Barghinejad,
Volume 13, Issue 48 (9-2022)
Abstract
Government investment and public debt are two important tools of financial policy affecting macroeconomic performance, which can be considered as one of the few remaining policy instruments to support growth. In the current study, the panel smooth transition regression model (PSTR) has been used to identify the threshold levels of government investment and public debt in 23 oil exporting countries during 2000 to 2021. Considering investment and public debt in separate models as transmission variables, the estimated results indicate the existence of a two-regime non-linear relationship. The estimation results show that in this group of countries, the positive effects of government investment on economic growth increase with the increase in the level of investment. During the first regime, public debt has a negative effect on economic growth. If public debt surpasses the threshold level, its negative impact on economic growth decreases.
Dr Samira Motaghi, Dr Yegane Mosavi Jahromi, Mr Mohammad Amin Taheri Gorgani,
Volume 14, Issue 51 (5-2023)
Abstract
Purpose: The insurance penetration rate is one of the most important indicators used to evaluate the insurance industry of a country. This ratio is also a measure to compare the performance of the insurance industry between developed and developing countries. The aim of this research is to compare the insurance penetration rate and the factors affecting it in high and low income countries.
Methodology: The current research examines the effect of variables such as inflation rate, education, labor productivity, dependency ratio and income on the insurance penetration rate in the period 2011-2021 and using PMG and ARDL methods to derive short-term and long-term equations in 18 countries with income High and low income and the country of Iran pays.
Findings: The results obtained from the estimation of long-term PMG models in high-income countries indicate a positive effect of dependency ratio, income level and fertility level on the insurance penetration rate, as well as a negative effect of inflation rate and labor productivity on the dependent variable, also in selected countries with high income. All the variables, except for education and dependency ratio, which had a positive and significant effect on the insurance penetration rate, are statistically meaningless. On the other hand, the findings from the estimation of the long-term ARDL model in Kesho Iran show the negative impact of the inflation rate on the insurance penetration rate and the positive impact of the education level, income level and dependency ratio on the insurance penetration rate.
