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Comparison of I-O and CGE models by Simulating the Impact of Price Liberalization of Electricity, Distribution of Natural Gas and Water on the Output and Prices of the Main Sectors of Iran Economy
Mr Farid Fayazmanesh, Dr Ali Ranjbaraki,
Volume 14, Issue 54 (2-2024)
Abstract
Although, input-output (I-O) and general equilibrium (CGE) models are systems based on interrelations between sectors and economic agents. However, they are very different in terms of design complexity, model solving techniques, required input data, outcomes, theorical structure and adopted assumptions.
Therefore, the results of simulating the effects of an economic policy using each of these models will definitely be different. But, avoiding complexity, difficult solving techniques, collecting large amount of data and so on, sometimes make us to use simpler, although less accurate, models. In this case, obviously, the assumptions and restrictions of the model are to be fully noticed, when interpreting the outcomes of simulation. Otherwise, incorrect decision making will be inevitable.In this paper, we assess the impact of price liberalization of electricity, distribution of natural Gas and water on the output and prices of the main sectors of Iran economy. This is done by using a I-O and a CGE, both designed by autors. The simulation is implemented by cutting subsidy payed to final and intermediate consumption of electricity, distribution of natural Gas and water. The outcomes are largely different regarding the amount and the direction of sectoral output and price changes. While the outcomes of I-O model are against this policy, the results of CGE model, in which total output and household consumption increase, are in favor of it. The rise of demand in tradeable agriculture and industries and mining are accompanied with more import, so that their new equilibrium output will be lesser. But, output of non-tradeable construction and low tradeable services increase. The increase of crude oil and natural gas are totaly exported.
Investigating the impact of monetary, financial and exchange market conditions on fuel smuggling in the Iranian economy using the SVAR model
Mrs Zahra Hashemi, Prof Nazar Dahmarde,
Volume 15, Issue 55 (5-2024)
Abstract
The article examines the impact of monetary, financial and exchange market pressure indexes on fuel and petroleum products smuggling in Iran's economy by applying SVAR structural vector autoregression model based on seasonal data of 1390-1400. the model results show that the impulse response from the domestic and FOB Persian Gulf price difference of petroleum products, fuel smuggling constantly aggravates and its effect is increasing. In addition, the impulse response of the financial condition index and monetary conditional index is not very important, and the impulse from the exchange market pressure index has a negative effect at first, and after 5 periods of shock, it becomes zero and its effect becomes positive.
The results of the variance decomposition analysis show that in different periods, the fluctuations of the fuel smuggling variable are explained by the difference between domestic and FOB Persian Gulf price differenence of petroleum products. In fact, fixing the domestic oil products price below the export parity price is a very inefficient way to subsidize domestic oil consumption. In addition to the waste caused by low price, it has provided rents for smugglers and worsens the country's fiscal imbalance.

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