Sadeq Rezaei, Professor Mohsen Mehara, Ali Souri,
Volume 11, Issue 40 (6-2020)
Abstract
In financial markets, the symmetry of information and the homogeneous interpretation of information among traders is one of the main conditions for market efficiency, but these conditions are in fact violated. In this paper first; we accurately estimated the dynamic measures of trades stemming from information asymmetry and diverse opinions among investors indices by a hidden Markov model. Thereafter, we consider an event window of 21 days to investigate impact of information disclosure on that indices. For this purpose, we estimated the daily measures of probability of informed trading (PIN) and symmetric-order flow shock (PSOS) 32 Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) stocks belonging to 11 industries of TSE during the period from 2015 to 2018. PIN is an indicator of asymmetric information risk and PSOS indicating diverse opinions among investors whose variations and intensity play an important role in price formation and stock liquidity. These results show that in most stocks that have higher market value experience less risks of asymmetric information and diverse opinions shocks than other stocks. Entirely, it appears that the average and the maximum of information risk and diverse opinions shocks at TSE are higher than in developed markets. Also, information disclosure decreases PIN for three days and increases PSOS for 10 days, significantly, but its impact on PIN is weaker than PSOS. Actually, in TSE, information advantage of some informed traders are independent of announcements as well as announcements causes opinion diversities to rise and stand up.
Mojtaba Rostami, Seyed Nezamuddin Makiyan,
Volume 11, Issue 41 (10-2020)
Abstract
Volatility is a measure of uncertainty that plays a central role in financial theory, risk management, and pricing authority. Turbulence is the conditional variance of changes in asset prices that is not directly observable and is considered a hidden variable that is indirectly calculated using some approximations. To do this, two general approaches are presented in the literature of financial economics for modeling and calculating volatility. In the first approach, conditional variance is modeled as a function of the square of the past shocks of return on assets. Models of the GARCH type fall into this category. In the alternative approach, volatility is assumed to be a random variable, which evolves using nonlinear patterns of Gaussian state space. This type of model is known as Stochastic Volatility (SV). Because, SV models include two kinds of noise processes, one for observations and another for hidden, volatility, thus, they are more realistic and more flexible in calculating volatility than GARCH type. This study attempts to analyze the volatility in stock returns of 50 companies, which are active in Tehran Stock Market using symmetric and asymmetric methods of Stochastic Volatility, which is different in the presence of leverage effect. The empirical comparison of these two models by calculating the posterior probability of accuracy of each model using the MCMC Bayesian method represents a significant advantage of the ASV model. The results in both symmetric and asymmetric methods represent the very high stability of the volatility generated by the shocks on stock returns; therefore, the Tehran Stock market changes in returns due to this high sustainability will be predictable.
Mohammad Tohidi,
Volume 11, Issue 42 (12-2020)
Abstract
Noise traders make decisions based on market sentiment and buy and sell assets based on unrelated information. These traders generally have poor timing, follow trends, and overreact to good or bad news. The experience of financial markets shows that noise traders cause excess volatility and deviation of the stock value from its intrinsic value. This study seeks to evaluate the role of noise traders on the occurrence of bubbles in the Tehran Stock Exchange in the period 2011 to 2017 .Therefore, the research hypothesis is: "The effect of noise trading on the occurrence of bubbles in the Tehran Stock Exchange is positive and significant." In this study, PCA method is used to extract a composite sentiment index, The GSADF method also is employed to determine the bubble periods of the Tehran Stock Exchange price index. Finally, the logit method is applied to measure the effect of noise trading on the bubble in the stock market price index. The results show that the effect of noise trading on the occurrence of bubbles is positive and significant. Also, the estimation of the final marginal effect indicates that the increase of one unit of optimistic sentiment and optimistic sentiment with a lag in the stock market increases the probability of bubbles by 24 and 28%, respectively.
Mohammad Noferesty, Mehdi Yazdany, Fahimeh Mohebbinia,
Volume 11, Issue 42 (12-2020)
Abstract
Over the past decade, Iran's economy has undergone a major and rapid experience of currency changes. One of the most important questions during the currency changes of the last decade is to answer the important question of how much the devaluation of the Rial has led to an increase in domestic prices and the extent to which these effects affect various dimensions of the domestic economy. Measuring the range of price changes in response to currency changes can be found in the phenomenon of currency transitions. The aim of this study is to analyze the inflationary effects of foreign exchange passage on the levels of imported and producer prices at different stages of production and separately in the productive sectors of the economy and also to determine the effective factors in foreign exchange passage by resorting to supply side variables in Iran's economy. The present study presents a new approach for measuring exchange rate crossings on production chains by combining econometric tools and Input-Output table in embedding and separating the estimation of exchange rate pass coefficients in two stages on import and producer prices. Industry by using the tools of Input-Output table segmentation and considering variables based on information specific to each economic sector, such as; The import sector, the export sector, the production of each sector, provide sector linkages in estimating the exchange rate passage in the Iranian economy. These measures are based on three types of time series analysis, Input-Output analysis and Panel data analysis from 1986 to 2017. Findings of the research in stage 1 indicate the high dependence of many industrial and economic sectors of Iran on imports and low elasticity of imports to the exchange rate and no substitution by domestic products. In the second stage, the coefficients of exchange rate passage on the producer are positive and significant in almost all economic sectors, and this fact confirms the effectiveness of the producer price index in the Iranian economy from changes in the exchange rate (through imports). also; The passage of the exchange rate on producer prices varies between different years in different sectors, and in some economic sectors these changes have increased over time, which indicates the increasing dependence and increasing impact of import prices on producer prices over time. It is in the policies adopted. Also, the results in stage 3 indicate a negative and significant effect of export share coefficients and the natural logarithm of domestic production and have a positive and significant effect of share coefficients of intermediate import inputs and inter-sectoral linkages, but the share of intermediate imports among other variables. It has the highest impact on the exchange rate of economic sectors
Hossein Tavakolian,
Volume 12, Issue 43 (3-2021)
Abstract
After the imposed war, Iran's economy has seen two relatively successful experiences in controlling inflation. These two periods include the final years of the Third Development Program and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) term. This is while we are seeing a relatively high inflation rate in other periods. In this paper, based on literature on monetary rules and using a Time-Varying Parameter Bayesian Structural Vector Auo Regressive (TVP-BSVAR) Model with stochastic volatilities, we study a rule-based monetary policy or a systematic monetary policy and a non-systematic monetary policy (based on the stochastic volatilities of monetary shocks). The results indicate that in addition to the systematic monetary policy obtained from the model, the success of monetary policymakers in controlling inflation is not only due to inflation control per se (thst is systematictic) but also for non-systematic reasons such as fiscal policy through fiscal discipline and oil revenue management by both monetary and fiscal policymakers that does not fit into the framework of systematic monetary policy.
Mojtaba Khodam, Mohsen Nosratian Nasab, Ahmad Jafari Samimi,
Volume 12, Issue 44 (7-2021)
Abstract
Considering the challenges related to estimating and forecasting the expected Shortfall dynamically and with a semi-parametric approach, in this study, providing a general framework, dynamic semi-parametric models in forecasting Expected Shortfall in Tehran Stock Exchange be introduced and evaluated. In this regard, the data of the period 2008.12.04-2020.08.26 and Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) approach are used to introducing dynamic semi-parametric models (GAS-2F, GAS-1F, GARCH-FZ and hybrid). Then expected Shortfall (ES) in Tehran Stock Exchange be estimated and forecasting performance of these models are compared with traditional models in this field, including GARCH models and rolling window models based on backtesting their results. The results of this study indicate better performance of dynamic semi-parametric models in forecasting the expected Shortfall (ES) than competing models. In addition, the GAS-1F model has shown the best performance among all models.
Mohammad Feghhi Kashani, Majid Omidi,
Volume 12, Issue 44 (7-2021)
Abstract
The aim of this study is to theoretically investigate the role of the bank deposit market structure in how effective micro and macro prudential policies in determining the regulatory capital of banks in combination with monetary policy. To achieve this, a partial equilibrium analytical framework has been developed that includes rational economic entities and the possibility of contagion risk in the banking system in order to achieve more explicit and tangible results. In general, it will be shown that the imperfect structure of the bank deposit market as a policy transmission channel (which is less considered in the literature) can significantly change the micro and macro implications of such policies. Specifically, the effects of these policies on allocation and stabilization efficiency will be followed in terms of the types of conceivable equilibria for deposit rates, expected net returns, expected markup, and the level of expected effort of banks operating in the banking system. Expected markup capital elasticity of banking system smaller than one at the micro and macro levels play a special role in prudential policies. Each bank interactively with other banks would shape its solutions and expectations towards upcoming states of the economy (in so doing customizing its balance sheet asset side) along with key determinants for its solvency in respecting its financial obligations to depositors and whereby touching depositors’ confidence in its performance so hard that seizing utmost share in deposit market by bidding appropriate deposit rate. The deposit rate together with the level of monitoring efforts would further hit banking sector contagion risk drawing in its associated externalities and under well-defined conditions could expose the banking system to higher fragility.
Ali Mirzaei, Ali Nazemi, Siab Mamipour,
Volume 12, Issue 45 (11-2021)
Abstract
Achieving reality-based valuation of innovative companies is an undeniable challenge for the founders and investors of innovation. The purpose of this study is to model a logical, innovative and scalable approach to valuing innovative companies. In this way, by selecting the Earning Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) of the studied innovative company, as a state variable and simulating its future income flows based on Arithmetic Brownian Motion (ABM) standard and using the framework of Real Option Valuation (ROV) method, the valuation model was created. The accuracy and efficiency of this model was proved by extracting the data of the fiscal years from 1392 to 1395 of Gamron Petro Industry Exchange Company and comparing the results of the model with the market value of the company in Tehran Stock Exchange. On the other hand, in order to test the effect of real interest rate on the model results, by defining three different values of real interest rate, the effect of real interest rate fluctuation on the model evaluation results was investigated. Thus, the high flexibility of the model using the method of real option valuation is fully reflected in the research results.
Azadeh Mehrabians, Parima Bahrami Zonooz, Roya Seifipour, Narciss Aminrashti,
Volume 12, Issue 45 (11-2021)
Abstract
Capital adequacy ratio is one of the most important indicators in analyzing the situation of banks in order to manage banks against risks such as bankruptcy and their inability to meet obligations. This controls the risk management of banks. The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of banking variables on the capital adequacy ratio (CAR) in private banks in Iran during the period 2011-2018 and in Malaysia quarterly during the period 2012:01-2019:04 by Threshold Auto regression Method. The results showed that the CAR in the low regime with four lags had a negative effect and in the high regime had a direct effect on the CAR of Iranian banks. But it did not have a significant impact on the Malaysian banking system. The share of bank deposits in Iran in both regimes has a negative effect on the CAR. But it had a direct effect on the Malaysian banking system in the high regime. The size of the bank in the low regime had a direct effect on the CAR of private Iranian banks. But in Malaysia, in both regimes, it had a direct impact on the capital adequacy ratio. The share of credits in both regimes had a direct impact on the CAR in Iran. But in the Malaysian banking system in both regimes had a negative impact on the CAR. Liquidity in the low regime has a negative effect on the CAR in private Iranian banks. But in the high regime did not have a significant effect. While in the high regime, liquidity has a direct and significant effect on the CAR in the banking system of Malaysia. Returns of assets in the low regime do not have a significant effect on the CAR of Iranian banks. But returns of assets in the low regime have a direct and significant effect and in the high regime have a negative effect on the CAR in the Malaysian banking system. Financial leverage in the low regime does not have a significant effect on the CAR of Iranian banks, but in the Malaysian banking system in the low regime has a negative effect and in the high regime has a direct effect.
Roozbeh Balounejad Nouri, Amirali Farhang,
Volume 12, Issue 45 (11-2021)
Abstract
This paper aims at investigating the asymmetric impact of long-term and short-term macroeconomic variables on the capital market prices of Iran.Macroeconomic variables are inflation, exchange rate, non-oil trade balance and crude oil prices. In order to investigate these relationships, the quantile autoregressive distributed lag (QARDL) method introduced by Cho et al. (2015) has been used. For this purpose, monthly data related to Iran's economy in the period 2008: M9-2021: M6, have been used. Findings show that in the short run, the macro variables used except the trade balance and oil prices have an asymmetric effect on the capital market price index. In the long run, all variables except oil price have an asymmetric effect on the stock price index and the effect of oil price is symmetrical and significant. This conclusion shows that in situations where the stock market price index is in a state of prosperity, recession or normal, except for oil prices, the effect of research variables on this index is not the same and even this effect is different in the short and long term.
Davoud Mahmoudinia, Hadis Mazangi,
Volume 12, Issue 46 (12-2021)
Abstract
Today, the unconventional policy of negative interest rate is discussed in many Western societies and developed countries, and the implementation of this policy in the financial and banking system has brought growth and prosperity in many economies involved in the crisis. In fact, by applying a negative interest rate, the bank will be able to direct credit allocation to productive and priority sectors. On the other hand, this policy, along with the independence of the central bank and the non-interference of the government in creating liquidity and making money from it, can reduce the level of inflation. Iran is a developing country with high inflation, and the interest rate as a monetary policy will not be very effective in the economy and is determined by the monetary authorities under the government's rule. When governments face budget deficits due to sanctions and lack of revenue sources, they create money by relying on their supervision over the performance of the central bank and use it as a solution to earn money, Therefore, it fuels inflation in the society. Therefore, in this research, within the framework of the optimization model of the money demand function and the model of money in the utility function, taken from the study of Walsh (2003) and Sidrauski (1967) and its extension, we will investigate the behavior of negative interest rates on inflation and optimal money interest. The obtained results show that in the environment of money interest and inflation, with the application of negative nominal interest rate, the equilibrium path has a downward and decreasing trend, and in this situation, inflation and money interest will decrease in the long term. Therefore, the government has the ability to compensate for its budget deficit through solutions such as bonds and income tax, and in the long term, by reducing the money interest rate, it can reduce the level of inflation in the society and this will improve the social welfare of people.
Dr Saleh Taheri Bazkhaneh,
Volume 13, Issue 49 (12-2022)
Abstract
Monetary policy modeling is one of the important areas in macroeconomics, which has been expanded after the pioneering study of Taylor (1993) in the framework of the central bank's reaction function. By applying new econometric approaches, economists try to answer the controversies in the literature and provide new implications by evaluating the monetary policy and its relationship with macroeconomic stability. In this regard, the current research has used the continuous wavelet transform and its tools to investigate the relationship between monetary policy and the production gap, inflation deviation and the gap in the foreign exchange market in Iran's economy. The results show that in the period of 1989-2022, the central bank only in the short term (less than one year) puts the output gap under its target or affects it arbitrarily. This is important for the deviation of inflation from its long-term trend in the short-term and medium-term (1-4 years). Due to the intertwining of the monetary policy and the currency market, which is due to the lack of independence of the central bank, the tendency to suppress the exchange rate and the contagion of imbalances to the monetary base, the relationship between the monetary policy and the gap in the currency market is unstable.The information and analysis presented in the field of time-frequency, taking into account the developments of Iran's economy, can be useful for those interested in this field.
Dr Hossein Samsami Mazrae Akhoond, Mr Ahmad Bakhtiyari,
Volume 13, Issue 49 (12-2022)
Abstract
The unmanaged control of liquidity growth has always been the concern of policymakers due to its negative consequences. Recently, policymakers have focused on the needing to control the liquidity growth. One of the liquidity drivers is the government borrowing from the central bank. In this regard, governments have concerned for the issue of not borrowing from the central bank since the 2000s onwards. Although governments are limiting themselves for this borrowing, they force banks and financial institutions to borrow from that source. For this purpose, this study designs a macroeconomic model by including the net debt of the public sector to the central bank as well as to banks and financial institutions via the government's financial balance channel. This model shows the relationships of economic variables in the framework of a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, considering nominal and real frictions. The results confirm the reliability of the model for simulating the economy of Iran after determining the input values and calibrating the parameters of the model using the Iran's economy data during 2000-2020. The findings from the research data show that the net increase in government sector debt to banks and non-banking credit institutions has a positive effect on investment, in such a way that new liquidity by the government obtained from institutions and banks It has been produced in the form of new deposits at the disposal of the department. The net impulse of public sector debt to the central bank causes an increase in consumption in the utility function and the total consumption of a combination of public goods and services provided by the government as well as private consumption goods and services. Also, the net impulse of public sector debt to the central bank causes an increase in inflation and a slight growth of production, and the net impulse of public sector debt to banks and credit institutions increases inflation and stimulates production.
Dr Leila Torki, Mr Omid Ghorbanzadeh,
Volume 13, Issue 49 (12-2022)
Abstract
The state of development of technology in today's world is such that the development process and the future of the world in the field of technology cannot be accurately predicted. In the meantime, blockchain technology has been highly regarded as a revolutionary technology. This technology is a protocol that allows information to be exchanged directly between contracting parties in a network without the need for intermediaries. Blockchain has been one of the most important technology trends in recent years, and banking is one of those sectors that many experts believe will accept major changes from blockchain technology. Considering the revolutionary impact that blockchain technology can have on the banking system, it will be very important to examine the impact of this technology on the banking system, which represents how to create, present and acquire value in this sector. The purpose of this research is to investigate the impact of this technology in the banking system. In order to achieve this goal, the method of data collection is the type of document-library research and sample statistics, and it is quantitative-qualitative in nature, and the method is a survey, and the tools used are questionnaires and field observations. According to this research, it confirms the effectiveness of blockchain technology on the banking system. Finally, considering that blockchain technology will challenge almost all the core sectors of the banking system, it is necessary for banks to adopt a suitable strategy to deal with the threats and use the opportunities resulting from this technology.
Dr. Mohammad Feghhi Kashani, Dr. Naser Khiabani, Mrs. Sevda Lak,
Volume 13, Issue 50 (3-2023)
Abstract
Abstract: In the labor market literature, Shimer's criticism of the standard search and matching models indicates a low elasticity of the labor market as to the technology shock. As a result, the standard search and matching model is not able to explain the fluctuations observed in the main variables of the labor market, such as unemployment and job vacancies. In other words, in the standard model of search and matching with Nash bargaining, the fraction of fundamental surplus is large. Various explanations have been proposed to increase the elasticity of labor market compression to changes in productivity, and they all entail reducing the fundamental surplus fraction. By integrating the current and expected monetary policy induced debt overhang friction in the production and financial intermediatory sectors with a standard search and matching model this study aims at analyzing and pursuing how inclusion of this friction, through reducing the fundamental surplus and raising elasticity of labor market compression, could explain the excessive volatility in unemployment and job vacancy opportunities and thereby rendering a new solution for the Shimer’s puzzle. Further, the basic idea of this research was developed within a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model including the key components of the search and matching model entailing the fundamental surplus fraction. The resulting integrated model can be viewed as a theoretical framework for investigating the implications of including long-term risky nominal debt and the debt overhang for the fundamental surplus fraction in the structure involving financial frictions and the main features of the search and matching model subject to firm-specific productivity shocks and inflation. Considering the Iranian economy features, the model has been simutated for two cases one involves inertia in prices and the other one entails flexible prices. The findings show that a monetary regime that leads to inflation would ensue the debt overhang episodes via reducing the real value of companies' debts. As leverage and default rates upsurge, firms pass up new investments and this leads to reduced labor force recruitment, job vacancy opportunities cut, and increased unemployment. As such, the debt overhang in companies lowers the fundamental surplus fraction and thus aggravates the impact of shocks on the elasticity of the labor market compression.
Mr Hamed Pourakbar, Dr Eskandari Sabzi, Dr Amir Ali Farhang, Dr Rostam Garehdaghi,
Volume 13, Issue 50 (3-2023)
Abstract
Recently, time-varying uncertainty has attracted a lot of attention from policymakers and academics and has led to the growth of literature identifying the transmission mechanisms of uncertainty shocks. Precautionary pricing incentive is an important mechanism that amplifies uncertainty shocks. The conclusion from the comparison of allocations under optimal monetary policies is modeled in two common pricing approaches, Calvo and Rotemberg. The main goal of this research is to investigate the optimal monetary policy with uncertainty in Iran's economy under different pricing conditions by modeling two common pricing approaches, Calvo and Rotemberg, which is based on a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model based on the new Keynesian perspective using The available information and statistics of Iran's economy from 2001 to 2021, have been designed according to the realities of Iran's economy. The results showed that the uncertainty shocks under Calvo and Rotemberg's pricing assumptions when the monetary policy is adjusted based on Taylor's empirical law are spread differently in the Iranian economy. In such a way that they behave like cost pressure shocks under Calvo pricing and negative demand shocks under Rotemberg pricing. However, the optimal monetary policy leads to the stabilization of both inflation and output gap under both pricing assumptions. In other words, adopting optimal monetary policies can lead to economic stability. Because optimal monetary policy removes not only the discretionary savings incentive of households but also the discretionary pricing incentive of firms, the key channel differentiates Calvo's pricing prediction from Rothenberg's pricing prediction under empirical Taylor. According to the results of the present research, it is suggested to use the monetary rule for policy-making to create a nominal anchor for economic actors and not to use discretionary policies in order not to create inflationary expectations in the economy.
Dr Parviz Rostamzadeh, Elizabeth Soltani Shirazi, Dr Rouhollah Shahnazi, Dr Sakine Owjimehr,
Volume 13, Issue 50 (3-2023)
Abstract
Unconventional monetary policies entered the field of economic discussions after the global financial crisis of 2008 and with the ineffectiveness of conventional monetary policies and have been considered with the aim of combating the reduction of money supply and economic recession. One of the important tools used to implement unconventional monetary policies is credit esing, which obviously does not have a quantitative value, and on the other hand, its prediction and impact on macroeconomic variables is of particular importance. In this research, the effect of the shocks resulting from the implementation of the credit easing policy on Iran's macroeconomic variables is investigated using the QUAL VAR method. In this way, using standard, simulated and quantified methods, the effect of credit easing policy shocks on macroeconomic variables during the years 2001 to 2022 is investigated using various tests. The results show that the impact of the mentioned policy shocks in the first months after the shock has caused a 0.04 percent decrease in the real GDP growth rate, a 0.01 percent increase in the inflation rate, and a 0.03 percent decrease in the employment rate and then in the following months, it will increase real GDP growth rate and employment rate. The mentioned shocks caused a 0.03 percent increase in the monetary base. Therefore, these applied shocks increase growth expectations. In general, the results show the fact that the policy of credit easing has led to an expansion in the assets side of the Central Bank's balance sheet, and by applying the necessary controls, it can be a suitable tool for stabilizing and growing macroeconomic variables in the months after its implementation and dealing with recessionary conditions.
Dr. Mahdi Ghaemi Asl, Dr. Mohammad Nasr Esfahani, Ms. Elham Sadat Mirshafiei,
Volume 14, Issue 51 (5-2023)
Abstract
In this research, the behavior of the international Islamic capital market in the three periods before Corona, Corona and after Corona, as well as multi-fractal analysis is carried out on Sharia-compliant stock markets. Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MFDFA), Multiscale multi-fractal analysis (MMA), are the methods used in this study. We used the Dow Jones index data from 2011 to 2022, the variables are the emerging countries, developed countries, Asia Pacific, America and Europe. The research results shows that Corona has reduced the efficiency of all variables. In all periods, the variables are ineffective, except for the Asia variable in the pre-Corona period, developed countries and America in the post-Corona period. Also, all the variables had persistency in the Corona period. But in the pre-corona period, all the variables had an anti-persistency behavior, except for the variable of emerging countries, which had a persistence behavior, and the variable of Asia, which had a random behavior. In the post-corona period, all the variables have had an anti-persistence behavior, except for the variable of developed countries, which has had a random behavior.
Dr Parvaneh Salatin, Dr Maryam Khodaverdi Samani, Mr Sydrasol Hashemi,
Volume 14, Issue 51 (5-2023)
Abstract
Interest rate is one of the most important effective tools in policymaking. It affects investments, stability, economic growth and the real sector of the economy. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of real interest rates on convergence of banks' efficiency in provinces. The results using spatial econometrics during the period 1400-2011 showed that the real interest rate has a positive and significant effect on the efficiency of banks in the provinces. . The absolute convergence rate was 0.211 and in conditional models was 0.222 and 0.228, which shows that in conditional condition, the convergence rate of provinces was higher. With the introduction of real interest rates, the pace of convergence has also increased. In other words, 11.2% in absolute convergence mode and 22.2% and 28.2% in conditional convergence mode are resolved from the economic gap of provinces to stable state. Also, economic growth has a positive and significant effect and human capital and ICT have a negative and significant effect on the convergence of banks' efficiency in the provinces.
Ali Siami, Alireza Erfani, Seyad Mohammad Mostolizadeh,
Volume 14, Issue 51 (5-2023)
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of parametric reforms on the financial sustainability of the Social Security Organization, the largest social insurance organization in the country. To this end, an overlapping generations general equilibrium model is employed. The issue is analyzed through four different scenarios. The results show that in the first scenario, increasing life expectancy by 3 years without changing the retirement age will increase the ratio of expenditures to resources of the Social Security Organization by approximately 2%. In the second scenario, increasing the retirement age by 2 years and reducing life expectancy by 1 year will decrease the ratio of expenditures to resources by about 0.8%. In this case, the share of retirees' consumption in production and the labor force participation rate will decrease by 5% and 3%, respectively. In the third scenario, raising insurance premiums by 2% will not cause significant changes in the ratio of expenditures to resources due to a reduction in labor supply. Finally, in the fourth scenario, increasing both the retirement age and life expectancy by 2 and 3 years, respectively, will raise the ratio of expenditures to resources of the Social Security Organization by approximately 2.4%.
