Journal of Economic Modeling Research

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  The ultimate goals of the monetary policy are price stability and the output growth. Monetary policy instruments are interest rate and the growth rate of monetary base. One of the well-known rules in conducting monetary policy is Taylor rule, through which, central banks change the interest rate while taking into account the output and inflation distortions. There are two problems with applying Taylor rule in Iran: First, the weak micro-foundation of the rule and second, according to this rule specially in the short run, instead of interest rate the policy variable is the growth rate of the monetary base. This research extends Taylor rule by explaining micro-foundation of the rule. So, using Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), we investigated the consistency of the Iranian central bank’s reaction function with extended Taylor rule in the period 1979- 2008. The empirical results show that although monetary authorities react appropriately with respect to output distortion, but their reaction is not appropriate with respect to inflation distortion.

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Foreign exchange (FX) markets play a significant role in the global financial market, so that it comprises 40% of total global e-commerce values. However, reports show a 90% loss of entire investment of traders in this market usually after six to 12 months after entrance. This paper analyzes losing values of the majority of traders theoretically and empirically. Furthermore, by ignoring spread of broker and existence of inflation, it is shown that the FX market is a repeating zero-sum game. So, by developing a theoretical model in a framework of the Probability Theory, we have shown that probability of a loss in the FX market is quite high. Results show that the loss of the majority of trade occurs undoubtedly. Using two major currency pair data: Euro-Yen (EURJPY) and Euro-Dollar (EURUSD) in a daily duration in 2009 and 2010, we show that probability of failure (loss) cannot be less than 90%. We also showed the fact that, the larger number of transactions, the higher percentage of traders’ losses. The higher probability of loss also depends directly on the volatility of exchange rate and higher rates of spread and leverage.

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Since the liquidity shortage has some undesirable consequences for banks, the evaluation of different strategies of providing liquidity is very important. In normal market conditions, there are plenty of adjustment strategies available for banks which allow them to have higher liquid assets when they face higher payment obligations. This paper mainly focuses on three strategies of liquidity management in country's banking system in above conditions. The main aim of current paper is to test three strategies of liquidity management based on the recommendations of Basel Committee in the condition of increasing the payment obligations of the banking network, by applying Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) method. We used the data from 20 Iranian commercial banks for the period 2001-2009. Results show that there is a positive relationship between payment obligations and securities stock growth rates and also between payment obligations and repayments of loans growth rates. However there is a diverse relation between payment obligations and long-term loans growth rates.

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The commitment and forward-looking behavior of central bank is of great importance. Commitment imposes less social costs on the central bank and the public. However, while there is wide agreement on the importance of commitment, there is much less consensus on how to implement commitment through targeting or instrumental rules. In this paper, we have estimated a basic New Keynesian model in Iran economy based on quarterly data over a sample period for 1990-2010. Then, we introduced a kind of instrumental rules that is called Speed Limit rule. The main feature of this rule is that the output gap is replaced by the changes in the output gap in the central bank's loss function. Then, by calculating appropriate weights under alternative targeting rules, we showed that this rule has the lowest social costs. Then, assuming the use of interest rate as primary monetary policy by the central bank, it is optimal to consider the role of the changes in the output gap (i.e. speed limit rule) in addition to the role of inflation and the output gap. As we expected, the estimation results of this instrumental rule in Iran economy showed that this rule has not been used for determining the interest rate. In other words, among the variables considered, only inflation rate has a positive and significant relationship with the interest rate, and the output gap and the changes in the output gap are not used in determining the interest rate.

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Simple sum monetary aggregation approach that based upon perfect substitution of monetary components assumption is inconsistent with microeconomics theories. In this research, using quarterly data of Iran over period 1370:1–1388:1, we first calculate monetary aggregation based on divisia index for both measures of money (M1, M2) and then estimate the demand functions for money for divisia and simple sum monetary aggregations separately. The results show that the adjustment speed of divisia aggregations is more than that of simple sum aggregations and the demand functions for money that construct by divisia aggregations, are more stable.

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ABSTRACT Considering the major impact which changes in the real exchange rate and crude oil prices have on various sectors of Iran's economy and the importance of the financial markets role in economic growth and development, this paper aimed to investigate the effects of the changes in real exchange rate and crude oil prices on Tehran stock exchange using the Markov-Switching's nonlinear models. To this end, daily data which belonged to the following periods were used: 20:03: 2005 - 13:10:2010 The result of the estimations obtained through the Markov Switching Models indicated that MSIAH model with two regimes out of the various MS model are the most suitable ones. The result of the research showed that the changes in the exogenous variable of real exchange rate and the crude oil price have lagging positive effect on the Stock Exchange Index. Moreover, the effects of these changes with two lagging time intervals are significant and negative. The practical implications of these findings could be beneficial to the investors and policy makers who need to be aware of the exact nature of the effects which changes in the exchange rate and crude oil prices have on the stock exchange index.

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The shares of state-owned or public companies are supplied in privatization plan. If the financial market be clear and efficient, it is expected that discovered price of supplied shares be efficient too. However, there is no guarantee for the fulfillment of this condition. Specially, implementation of those policies that, for example, a shock to exchange rate or the price of inputs (such as fuel), can affect market efficiency to discover efficient price of shares. In this study, the factors that cause the deviation of the actual share price have been identified, at first. After that a computable system has been designed by implementation error corrector filters. The input of this system is biased variable and corrected variable is the output. In this study, comparing previous studies, is generalized. So computable designed model can evaluates a wide range of factors. This system has been used to calculate the share of Tehran Regional Electricity Company. The outcomes show that the value of its shares is change from a negative amount (based on bias variables) to 2445 billion Rials (after passing based variable from correction filters). This difference, in addition of information asymmetry, maybe causes, in special in energy and electricity sectors, some opportunities to rent.

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This article measures the market power in the loan and deposit markets in banking industry of Iran, including 10 state-owned and 4 private banks, during 1380-1389 (2001-2010) based on the evaluating of Lerner indices. To achieving this objective, a stochastic frontier cost function has been applied then market power was calculated. The main results of paper show over the observed period although market power in loan market has reduced, in deposit market it has increased. Outcome of calculations indicates some fluctuations in Lerner indices especially during (2005-10). So, it shows importance of economic policy aimed at removing the barriers of entry to market and regulation of them in order to make these markets more competitive.

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Money is a facilitator of economic activities, thus, formatting of economic activity is dependent on the institutionalizing of monetary system. In common monetary system, the weakness of common perception about money, publishing and distributing mechanism led to inefficiencies in optimal allocation of resources and welfare cost of inflation tax. Partial equilibrium model in compare with general equilibrium model, underestimate welfare cost of inflation tax. Therefore, in dynamic optimization model, the equation of welfare cost of inflation tax, in addition to general equilibrium model of Lucas, derived from theoretical correction of demands for real money balances. Then welfare cost compared theoretically and experimentally in partial and general equilibrium model. Theoretical and experimental results indicate that the welfare costs of inflation tax in general equilibrium models, is an upper bound of partial equilibrium models. Also, given that the elasticity of demand for money in regard to the nominal interest rate, the welfare cost of inflation tax increases with nominal interest rate and inflation.

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IN ACCORDANCE TO DEVELOPMENT OF INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY IN IRAN, ELECTRONIC BANKING HAS BEEN DEVELOPED IN RECENT DECADE.‌A MEANINGFUL TRANSFORMATION HAS BEEN PLACED IN THE STYLE OF EXISTING BANKING SYSTEM SERVICES, BY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE USE OF ELECTRONIC BANKING TOOLS IN TEN YEARS. THE REFLECTION OF THIS PHENOMEN IS CLEAR IN THE BEHAVIOR OF PEOPLE AND BANKING SYSTEM WHO CARE ABOUT CASH, MONEY DEMAND PREFRENCES AND VARIATION IN THE COMPOSITION OF BANK RESOURCES.THEREFORE EFFECTIVENESS OF E-BANKING ON VARIABLES SUCH AS MONEY DEMAND IS A TOPIC WHICH APPEARS ESSENTIAL TO STUDY. DEMAND MONEY FUNCTION IS ONE OF THE MAIN IMPORTANT PARTS OF MONETARY SYSTEM AND PLAY CRUCIAL ROLE IN TRANSMISSION OF MONETARY POLICY TO THE REAL ECONOMIC SECTION. THE IMPACT OF THIS ON OTHER COMPONENT OF ECONOMIC SYSTEM, BOTH MONETARY AND NON-MONETARY IS INEVITABLE. IN OTHER WORDS, TO ANALYZE MONETARY ISSUES AND SOLVING THE PROBLEMS, IT IS NECESSARY TO UNDERSTAND THE NATURE OF MONEY DEMAND. IN THIS PAPER, THE DEMAND FUNCTION HAS BEEN ESTIMATED BY USING AR METHOD AND ENTERING EXOGENOUS VARIABLES IN MARKOV SWITCHING VECTOR AUTO REGRESSION MODEL. FOR MODELING OF MONEY DEMAND FUNCTION, SEASONAL DATA BETWEEN 2002‌ TO 2011 HAVE BEEN USED. ALSO THE EFFECT OF TRANSACTION VOLUME THROUGH POINT OF SALE(POS) AND AUTOMATIC TELLER MACHINE (ATM) AS EN-BANKING INDEX HAS BEEN DETERMINED. ACCORDING TO STABILITY TESTS, ESTIMATING THE MONEY DEMAND WICHE CONTAIN EN-BANKING VARIABLES IS UNSTABLE. THERFOR, IT CAN BE STATED THAT THE RESULTS OF FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES OF THE CENTRAL BANK AND THE GOVERNMENT TO ACHIEVE ITS GOALS DUE TO UNCERTAIN DEMAND MONEY POSITION, SOMETIMES IS REVERSED.

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The specification of money demand function is one of the most important and disputable subjects in economics. With regard to its importance, many of economists have represented several theorizes about money demand. The Sidrauski monetary model is an interesting theory of money demand. Sidrauski extended Ramsey model with regard real balance of money which in the Sidrauski model the utility function involves both consumption and money. Application of Sidrauski model can help to extend macroeconomics with micro foundations in Iran and prepares new scopes for researchers. The main aim of this paper is to estimate the Sidrauski monetary model for Iranian economy over the period of 1979 -2011. For this purpose, the Engle – Granger, ARDL and Johansen- Juselius approaches have been used for estimation of long run relationship of money demand. The empirical results of econometric estimation of co-integration vector indicated a long run relationship between per capita money demand, per capita consumption, and inflation rate, rate of interest, exchange rate, per capita income, and stock exchange price index. Our results showed that per capita consumption and per capita income have positive and significant effect on per capita money demand. Whereas inflation rate, rate of interest, exchange rate and stock exchange price index have negative and significant effect on per capita money demand.

  

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The main objective of this study was to investigate weak efficient market hypothesis of Tehran stock exchange. For this purpose, total  price index, financial index, industry index and the index's top 50 companies data for the period 2013:7-2009:5 daily basis as well as data on prices and yields for the period 2013:2 - 2000:3 are applied on a monthly basis. In this study, the hypothesis of the poor performance of the Tehran stock exchange, using wavelets and fractional Brownian motion is investigated. The results show the aforementioned hypotheses are rejected.

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The main goal of this research is to calculate VaR index with parametric Markov-Switching GARCH approach for accepted companies in Tehran Stock Exchange and also selecting the optimal portfolio of their stocks. To calculate the index, data and information of weekly stock price of 10 representative firms during the period 2008-2014 has been used which account for 332 working weeks.
The results from estimation of VaR and determination of optimal stock portfolio in the non-linear programming framework showed that optimal portfolio of food-industry companies stock, in the context of VaR has higher returns and risk in the first regime (Boom period) compared to the second regime ( recession period). On the other hand, it has had lower weight in both stock portfolios that had lower average returns compared to the rest of the stocks and compared to the stocks which had lower VaR relative to other stocks that has higher weights.
The Kupiec and Lopez back testing using 10 future week data, showed that both of approaches is valid but the parametric approach has better rank. Therefore the optimal portfolios of stocks under parametric VaR will be accepted as final optimal portfolio.

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"Market efficiency" is the basic axiom of Financial Economics and fondamental base for ability of optimal allocation (of financial resources) in a capital market. Vast and extensive studies around Market efficiency in recent decades, has induced strong evolutions in economist’s perception from a Market efficiency, methods of assessing and their implications in real world. This essay attempts to procure a concise leterature review of these evolutions. Results show that applied methods in Iran are incomplete in regard with new addvancements in foreign studies. So, weak form efficiency of Tehran Stock Exchange is reevaluated using new method of H statistic of Hinich. Results of empirical study shows that weak form efficiency is rejected for all the sample as a whole. But, market efficiency would be in evolvotion in studied periods based on used H statistic in this article. Also, market efficiency experienced an stationary improvement  from 2005.

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This paper seeks to investigate and analyze the money demand function and its Engle curve in Iran. Money demand function and its Engle curve have been estimated through EASI demand system by making use of monthly data 1995:04-2007:03. The investigation of money demand function shows that monetary elements are weak substitutions of each other. Thus, some policy recommendation is provided on the basis of estimated elasticity (Income, Price, cross Price, and Morishima). Moreover, the investigation of Engle curve reflects that by the increase of income, first, individuals extract their money from demand deposit. Secondly, investment in timed deposits increases and thirdly, no change is observed in the amount of money being held as currency and travel checks.

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The main objective ofthisstudy  is to evaluatethe effect offirm size, beta, financial leverageon the performance offirms listed inTehran Stock Exchangeinfourbasic metals, petrochemicals, cementandmedicine industries. The44companiesintheperiod 2007 to 2012 have beenselected as sample in theTehran Stock Exchange. Todo study,the relationshipbetween the variables, usingthesoftwareEviews 8assessmenttest. Toestimate themodel, theF testLimerto select the bestmodel is used thecombined data. The results of this research indicate a significant and negative relationship between financial leverage on corporate performance in the industries of basic metals, petrochemical, cement, pharmaceuticals. The relationship between beta and corporate performance in Basic metalsandpetrochemicalindustries is positive and significantandnot significantinthe cement industryand medicine. The relationship betweenfirm size and corporate performancein thebasic metals, petrochemicaland pharmaceuticalindustries is positive and significant and cement industry is negativeand significant.

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Hybrid sticky price model is one of  the main models, used to analyze the Persistencyand inertia in inflation. In recent years, Mankiw and Reis (2002),s sticky information model, has also been considered by many economic analysts. So, in present paper, we try to investigate and compare these models by using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework, based on new Keynesian structure. For this purpose, the data 1370:1-1391:4 Iran's economy has been used. The results of the estimated coefficient of inflation inertia indicate, inflation inertia in the model of hybrid price stickiness is more than information stickiness model. Inflation Persistency analysis is based on comparing the autocorrelation function of the original data and simulated data, show that hybrid price stickiness is better thaninformation stickiness model shows inflation persistence.It seems to be a hybrid price stickiness model more consistent with the economy of Iran and economic policy makers can be more confident of the results of this model to use them.

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The main purpose of the present study is to evaluate the relationship between the oil price shocks and the indexes of the Stock Exchange Market of Tehran. The present study is conducted by using from the data obtained from the common working days between world oil market and the Stock Exchange Market of Tehran between 8 December 2008 and 19 Mars 2014. In the present study the nested test, Johansen's co-integration test, vector error correction model and Engle- Granger method have been used in order to represent the long run relationship between the variables. The empirical findings of this paper indicate that there is a significant and positive long-run equilibrium between the OPEC oil price and six indices of capital market (total stock index, industry index, the price index of 50 companies, top 50 indices, return and price index, Index of 30 large companies). Also there is no significant long run equilibrium relationship between the OPEC oil prices and three indexes namely first market, second market and free float indexes.

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Given the importance and role of capital markets in the economy, its characteristics have been regarded by researchers in this field. Hence, the main purpose of the present study is testing the existence of multiple price bubbles in Tehran stock market. For this purpose, the monthly data on the total price index and price-dividend ratio for periods 2000 – 2013 has been used. In this study generalized supremum Augmented Dickey – Fuller test, which has been recently introduced, is used due to critical review of conventional methods of testing the bubbles and also the possibility of a multiple bubble in time series. In addition to the testing of multiple Bubbles, with using this method there is the possibility of determining their period of creation and decay. The results showed that in the period under review, in the period 2003:3 - 2003:5 and 2004:12 - 2005:7 hypotheses price bubble in the stock market is confirmed.

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Monetary policy is one of the most important macroeconomic policies which could be used for achieving economic targets such as reducing the output gap and reducing the inflation's deviation from it's target level.  These policies can be implemented through the control of volume of money or the rate of interest. Based on economic theories, the Central Bank should conduct monetary policies within a rule-based framework. In periods of positive or negative output gap or when inflation's deviation from it's target level is positive or negative, different monetary policies should be adopted. Assessment of Central Bank monetary policy's conformity to rules and the consistency of these policies with economic theories like Taylor's theory, is of vital importance. In order to evaluate the consistency of central bank monetary policies with economic theories, this study investigates the monetary strategies of Central Bank regarding the inflation's deviation and output gap during the period 1974-2013. It applies the Bootstrap method for this purpose. The result shows that Central Bank does not counteract the output gap during the periods of recession and boom and it's reactions to the inflation's deviation is in the reverse direction.