Showing 48 results for Panel
Mohammadreza Monjazeb, Mohsen Mahmoodi Pati,
Volume 7, Issue 26 (12-2016)
Abstract
The main objective of this study is: investigate the effect of government size on inflation rate in the 34 countries of the developing countries during the years 1998 to 2013. For this purpose, the index of total government spending as a percentage of GDP, used as government size and then the model of this study has been estimated by using the panel data technique.
The results of this study imply that the government size has had significant negative effect on the inflation rate and also the variables: liquidity growth rate, growth rate of import price and interest rate have had positive effect on the inflation. Furthermore, the growth rate of GDP, with a difference of degree has significant negative effect on inflation. Hence, the most important result of this study is the majority of the general government- spending in Developing countries has led to the Construction costs and investment in infrastructures that has strengthened. The supply side of the economy of these Countries that The origin of this effect can be the retarded economic structures of these countries.
Dr Abolfazl Shahabadi, Ms Hanieh Samari,
Volume 8, Issue 27 (3-2017)
Abstract
Always new technologies exports have been regarded as a competitive advantage and it implies the dynamism and cohesion of the economy and its special position in the global markets. Lack of innovation is one of the main factors affecting the country's high-tech exports. And until innovation and training to use of knowledge do not improve, efficiency and effectiveness of other production factors will remain low. So, the aim of this paper is to evaluate the effect of innovation on high technology exports in selected developing and developed countries during the period 2007-2013, using panel data approach and simultaneous equations system. Estimates of general model in developing countries expresses that the coefficients of global innovation index, accumulation of FDI inflows and GDP is positive and significant and coefficient of governance index is positive and meaningless. And in developed countries, coefficients of global innovation index, accumulation of FDI inflows, GDP and governance index is positive and significant. Therefore, it is necessary to improve the innovative environment, by changing the policy making in the resource-based economy moving towards knowledge-based economy by the alignment of macro-economic policies with scientific and research policies, in order to strengthen the relationship between industry and academia. So based on the current needs, the productions and technologies of knowledge-based industries will change.
Hosein Mohammadi, Mehdi Mahmoudi,
Volume 8, Issue 28 (7-2017)
Abstract
Interest rate is one of the most important policy variabels in macroeconomic. Global financial crises and big debt in some countries around the world, make the importance interest rate more explicitly. In the carrent study, the effect of interest rate, inflation, government investment and expenditure on GDP capita per was investigated using panel data approach. Forthermore panel VAR method was used to consider the effects of each mentioned variables on each other and investigating causality relationships between these variabls. 20 Islamic and 19 Non-Islamic countries during 1990-2014 were selected for this study. The results show that in both Islamic and Non-Islamic countries, interest and inflation rate have a significant negative effect on GDP per capita. Government investment in both groups of countries have a significant positive effect on GDP per capita. These results are inline with economic theories. Finally, government expenditures in these groups of countries have different effect on GDP per capita. also lowering interest rate Non-Islamic countries has a considerable effect on other variables.
Saeed Eisazadeh, Mohammad Kazem Naziri, Hadi Naeini,
Volume 8, Issue 30 (12-2017)
Abstract
One of the causes of unemployment is lack of fit between individual skill and needs for skills in the community. The situation of mismatch between the demand and supply of labour, particularly in terms of skills is defined as structural unemployment. Therefore, in this study quantitatively explores the impact of skill mismatches one of the main parameters of structural unemployment on unemployment rate. For this purpose of information available in the Labour Force Survey from 2006 to 2013 is used. Skill mismatch index is calculated from the root mean square error in supply and demand for skills. According to results of this study, skill mismatch have a significantly and positively effects on the unemployment rate. So thata1%increase in skill mismatch index led to an increase in the unemployment rate will be 0.13%. Therefore, creating exact information about job vacancies , reforming the contexts of courses and creating new fields in new areas according to necessities of entrepreneurs in order to updating of applicants knowledge should be mentioned.
Hosein Mohammadi, Morteza Mohammadi, Mohammad Tirgari-Seraji,
Volume 8, Issue 30 (12-2017)
Abstract
Proposed by the World Bank, in which the emphasis is on the participation of all sectors in order to achieve comprehensive development in economic, political, social and cultural fields. In this research, by using data of governance quality in 97 countries in 2000-2012, using panel data method, the effect of governance quality index and its sub-indices on the growth rate of per capita GDP is studied. To achieve the comparable results, countries have divided into five groups with low income (first group), with lower than average income (second group), with higher than average income (third group), high income and non-OECD (Group 4) and high-income and OECD (Group 5) countries. Then the effects of some explanatory variables such as governance indicator and its sub-indices on the per capita GDP is estimated for each group of countries separately. The results of the research indicate that in the studied period and for the countries under study, the governance indicator and its sub-indices do not have the same effects on GDP per capita in different groups of countries. Voice and accountability index has a positive significant effect on per capita GDP growth only in three groups of countries (third, fourth and fifth groups). Political stability index only has a positive significant effect on per capita GDP growth in the third group. The government efficiency indicator only has a positive significant effect on per capita GDP growth in the third, fourth and fifth groups. In the first group, only the regulatory quality index has a positive significant effect on per capita GDP growth. This difference in the way indicators are used implies a difference in regulatory policies in order to influence the per capita GDP growth in different groups of countries.
Hossien Amiri, Fatemeh Samadian,
Volume 8, Issue 30 (12-2017)
Abstract
Construction projects are the basic requirements of sustainable development and growth. Inefficient procedures of implementing the construction projects, regardless of our financial and administrative capacities, has imposed a large amount of unfinished and occasionally stopped projects to national economy. Since there are various components that affect the fate of projects, therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to answer this question that whether the political cycles affect the adoption and implementation of provincial construction projects or not? In order to answer this question, two hypotheses are considered in this paper. Therefore, GMM dynamic method was used to estimate the model and test hypothesis in the years 1997-2014. Hypothesis one: political cycles affect the fate of construction projects, and the second hypothesis: the impact of political cycles on the adoption and implementation of construction projects are larger in the year prior to political cycle (election). Therefore, in order to estimate the model and test the research hypothesis, provincial data during the years was used. Results of testing two hypotheses suggest that parliamentary and presidential political cycles have a significant positive correlation with the construction projects. Results also show that the presidential political cycle has a larger impact on construction projects, meaning that the impact of political cycles on the process of adopting and implementing the construction projects in the year prior to the political cycle is larger. In this regard, in order to eliminate the impacts of the governmental and parliamentary political cycle on construction projects, it is recommended to determine a competent authority that has the necessary qualifications as well as the sufficient degree of independence and supervision power over the project's Feasibility studies. The referenced mentioned will be approve projects based on objective justification-technical and district-based studies and it prevents the adoption of development plans based on the political considerations of the government and parliamentarians.
Abolfazl Shahabadi, Mahsoomeh Ahmadi, Ali Moradi Ali Moradi,
Volume 9, Issue 31 (3-2018)
Abstract
The insurance industry as a means of transferring risk and paying damages, ensures the future and the confidence of individuals and as an investor's institution, It cumulation the saving resources and allocates it to the needs of investment and economic growth of the countries. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the factors influencing the development of this industry in countries with a low insurance penetration and action must be taken regarding reinforcement the increasing factors and Elimination its decreasing factors.In this regard, the present study has tried to determine the interaction between financial development and economic freedom indicators (total index, size of government, legal system and property rights, sound money, freedom to trade internationally and regulations) on the penetration insurance in Fifteen unsuccessful insurers will be insured over the period 2014-2000. For this purpose, the research model was estimated using panel data and generalized moment’s method. The results it shows the interaction of financial development and all index of economic freedom on insurance penetration the in selected countries have had a positive and meaningful. Also, the individual effect of financial development and total economic freedom index is positive and significant. However, their individual influence on the insurance penetration is less than their interaction. Finally, the effect of control variables including per capita income, human capital and urbanization rate on the insurance penetration in the selected countries have had a positive and meaningful and the effect of unemployment and inflation have had a negative and meaningful.
Naghmeh Honarvar, Homayoun Ranjbr, Sara Ghobadi,
Volume 9, Issue 32 (7-2018)
Abstract
This study examines the long run relationship between the efficiency component (good market efficiency and labor market efficiency) in the global competitiveness index and the variables of economic success (economic growth and unemployment) by using new econometric methods in selected countries of Asia with the average upward Global Competitiveness Index. This study, in the framework of the Panel Vector Error Correction Model (PVECM), examines the long run relationship between variables over the period 2008-2016. Estimation of long run coefficients by using Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) and estimating error correction temr coefficients by using the Pool Mean Group Method (PMG) and Panel Vector Error Correction Model has been done. Estimations of the coefficients of the variables of the good market efficiency and labor market efficiency by using DOLS method show that the effects of good market efficiency and labor markets efficiency on the economic growth in the long run are positive and significant. The impacts of good market efficiency and labor market efficiency on unemployment in the long run are negative and significant. Also, the results of estimating logarithmic coefficients in the DOLS method show that the most effective variable on economic success variables (economic growth and unemployment) is related to good market efficiency. The estimation of the coefficients of error correction term by using the PMG and PVECM method show that when the economic growth rate is dependent variable, since the coefficient of error correction term for this variable is negative and significant, therefore, There is a long run relationship between the rate of economic growth, good market efficiency and labor market efficiency. When the unemployment rate is dependent variable, since the coefficient of error correction term is negative and significant for this variable, there is a long run relationship between the unemployment rate, good market efficiency and labor market efficiency.
Manizheh Bratzadeh, Javad Harati, Mohammad Lashkari,
Volume 9, Issue 33 (10-2018)
Abstract
Money laundering is an illegal practice that legitimizes the income from illegal activities during a legitimate process.Trade-based money laundering (TBML) as one of the newest and most complicated types of money laundering has negative effects on economic, social and political aspect of a society.The most important objective of the present study is to investigate the effect of various factors on trade based money laundering in Iran using the Ferwerda Gravity model.For this purpose the effective factors on trade base money laundering between iran and some selected trade partners are investigated by the use of a random effect model during the period 1999-2012. The results indicate that a great significant part of the trade based money laundering flow between Iran and selected trade partners can be explained by the the Ferwerda Gravity model. Accordingly, gorss doimestic product(GDP), trade volume, geographical, cultural, population and attractiveness variables have a significant effect on the amount of trade based money laundering in Iran.This means that with the increase in trade flow, money laundering opportunities resulted from the trade channel, that is hidden in it, will also increase. These results can be used by policy makers for designing policies to combat money laundering particularly coming from trade channel.
Hengame Hendizadeh, Alireza Karbasi, Toktam Mohtashami, Hossein Mohamadzadeh,
Volume 9, Issue 33 (10-2018)
Abstract
One of the factors that have a significant impact on the economic development of countries is reliance on foreign trade, and due to the dependence of countries on export earnings and the import of foreign trade, it plays an essential and indisputable role in the growth and development of different sectors. Foreign trade in agricultural products has an important role in expanding the export and import of various countries due to its high and stable value. Among the agricultural products, saffron is one of the most important export commodities of agriculture, which contributes greatly to the creation of agricultural value added. This study examines and analyzes Saffron's foreign trade network among 11 active countries including Iran in this area. The required data and statistics were collected during the years 2007-2016. Considering the geographical dispersion of the studied countries, a spatial panel model was used to analyze the factors affecting the value of saffron trade. The results of estimating OLS methods, spatial interruption and spatial error showed that import price variables per gram, export price per gram, export volume, export standards index, gross domestic product, exchange rate and government support index in agricultural sector is significant and has a positive effect on the value of trade. Positive and significant spatial dependency coefficient shows that neighborhood is an important role in increasing or decreasing trade. This means that, as long as the value of saffron trade in neighboring countries increases, the value of trade in the target country will increase as the size of the coefficient.
Aziz Arman, Mis Batool Azari Beni,
Volume 9, Issue 34 (12-2018)
Abstract
Fluctuations in housing prices in recent years in Iran has always been one of the most important economic issues on the economic welfare changes affect lifetime. In this paper, the effects of housing on the dynamics of income generations age is examined. This phenomenon type of model is designed to assess the generation of data building. The model is designed household budget generations by combining cross-sectional data from households in the years 2007 to 2015 are tracking. In this research, in order to clarify the contents of the review results in four steps without shock and shock 5, 10 and 15 percent reported. The results show that the average income of households without shock reduced from 86 years to 89 and then 89 years with little speed has increased, although the increase in revenue in less than 86 years is 90 years. As well as small shock in 2007 has led to middle income households in that year and the following years than before the occurrence of shocks is reduced. While the occurrence of a great shock (15%) reduces the average household income has been greatly. This could mean that in the event of a large shock of vulnerable households are barely able to restore income dropped while repairing a small shock is possible.
Mohammad Reza Monjazeb, Leyla Dehgani,
Volume 10, Issue 37 (10-2019)
Abstract
Life insurance is one of the most important economic instruments. Considering the important role of life insurance, this study investigates the life insurance capability in Iran. For this purpose, the Panel ARDL model has been used. Then, for the period 1990-2016, suitable models for the first group (Iran with the leading countries in the industry), the second group (Iran with the countries that were close to Iran in premiums) and the group Third (countries in two groups) were estimated. Based on models, the fitted value of life insurance premiums per capita in Iran is analyzed and compared as the potential or optimal level in each groups. The results showed that in each group, the actual life insurance premiums per capita in Iran are significantly lower than the optimal level. The capacity level of life insurance in Iran compared with first group is 46%, and compared with second group is about 42% and compared with third group is about 44%. The results indicate that Life insurance in our country has a high potential, and a large part of the insurance capacity in our country has not yet been fully acquired.
Alireza Kazerouni, Hosein Asgharpour, Ali Aghamohamadi, Elham Zokaei Alamdari,
Volume 10, Issue 37 (10-2019)
Abstract
This study examines the relationship between per capita income and per capita dioxide emissions in the form of a new definition of the Environmental Kuznets Curve, to investigate how corruption influences the income level at the turning point of the relationship between per capita dioxide emissions and income, in developed and developing countries the period 1994-2013 through the use of a panel data model. Our results support the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis for developed countries and existence of an U-shaped relation for developing countries. We find evidence that the higher the country's degree of corruption, the higher the per capita income at the turning point for developed countries and the lower the per capita income at the turning point for developing countries than when corruption is not accounted for. Also, the share of renewable energy in both groups of countries has a negative and significant effect on per capita dioxide emissions, but the positive effect of urbanization rate in developed countries is significant and in developing countries is not.
Abolfazl Shahabadi, Hossein Raghfar, Neda Solgi, Ali Moradi,
Volume 10, Issue 38 (12-2019)
Abstract
Insurance as a central risk-taking institution as well as one of the investment institutions increases economic participation, investment development and stimulating economic growth. Therefore, identification of the effective factors on the insurance penetration in developing countries seems necessary. In this regard, the present study attempted to investigate the impact of national competitiveness on insurance penetration coefficient in 20 developing countries during the period 2007-2017. The research model was estimated using panel data and generalized moment’s method in two case. In the first case, the sub-indicators of national competitiveness including basic requirements, efficiency enhancer’s factors and innovation and sophistication factors were used as key variables in the research, and in the second case, the overall competitiveness index is used as a key variable in the research model. The results showed that the effect of overall competitiveness index and its sub-indicators on insurance penetration was positive and significant. Also, the effect of control variables, including per capita income and urbanization rate on insurance penetration is positive and significant, and the effect of dependency ratio on insurance penetration is negative and significant.
Ali Kiani, Karim Eslamloueyan, Phd Roohollah Shahnazi, Parviz Rostamzadeh,
Volume 10, Issue 38 (12-2019)
Abstract
In recent years, some research has focused on the importance of the origin of an oil shock for macroeconomic dynamics in both oil-exporting and importing countries. The existing literature lacks a proper open Stochastic Dynamic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework to investigate the effect of the origins of oil shocks on macro variables in a two-country model consisting of an oil-exporting county and an oil-importing country. To this end, we develop and solve a new Keynesian DSGE model to show how the different oil shocks originating from oil supply or oil demand, might have diverse impacts on key macroeconomic variables in oil-exporting and importing counties. For the case study, we use data from Iran as an example of an oil-exporting country that trades with the rest of the world. Our DSGE model is estimated by using the Bayesian method for the period 1986:1-2017:4. The result shows that an oil shock originated from the shortage of oil supply (an exogenous decrease in Iran's oil production) decreases total production, non-oil trade, employment, inflation and consumption in this oil-exporting country. While a negative oil supply shock increases production costs and reduces production and consumption in Iran. However, an oil shock originated from an increase in the demand for oil raises output, non-oil trade, employment, consumption, and inflation in Iran as an oil-exporting country while a demand-side oil shock boosts production and increases inflation in this country.
Jafar Zhilaei Aghdam, Ali Reza Daghighiasli, Marjan Daman Kashide, Ali Asmailpor Magari,
Volume 11, Issue 40 (6-2020)
Abstract
The relationship between external debt and economic growth is one of the important issues in macroeconomics literature and has been considered in empirical studies. So, in this paper the long-run relationship among external government debt and economic growth in 58 selected developing countries for 1985-2018 by applying a pool mean group method which is suggested by Pesaran & Smith. The main empirical results showed that there is a long-run relationship between external debt and economic growth. Also, increase in growth in selected countries in addition to the influence of produce factors, labor, capital stock and monetary policy, influence of public debt. Also, capital stock, open economic, financial balance and saving variables has positive effect and population growth and Government revenue has negative effect on economic growth.
Hassan Dargahi, Mojtaba Ghasemi, Sajjad Fatollahi,
Volume 11, Issue 40 (6-2020)
Abstract
This study investigates the relation between bounced checks and economic growth through the banking credit risk channel by estimation of a simultaneous equation system with panel data for 31 Iranian provinces covers the years from 2011 to 2015. For this purpose, after identifying determinants of the bounced checks, the relations of this variable with the non-performing loans, banking loans and economic growth are evaluated. The results confirm the positive relationship between the bounced checks to GDP ratio and the prices index, whereas the impacts of output deviation from trend and the index of enforcement of laws on the bounced checks are negative. In times of stagflation, with the decreasing possibility of defaults, the bounced checks tend to grow. Also, with the development of legal and judicial system in the country with a view to boosting institutional and governance quality, the number of bounced checks decreases on the scale of economic activities. On the other hand, the number of bounced checks after fixing the control variables will lead to an increase of non-performing loans and the bank credit risk. Meanwhile the impact of bank loans on economic growth through the productivity channel is meaningful and positive. Therefore, in the Iranian economy the increase of bounced checks through the channel of bank loaning power will have a negative influence on economic growth.
Samaneh Mohamadkhani, Mohammad Hassan Fotros, Mohamad Mowlaei,
Volume 11, Issue 41 (10-2020)
Abstract
The importance of non-oil exports and their role in the economic growth and development of countries has always been discuss as an important issue in the economy. Meanwhile, the role of high-tech exports in the growth of developed countries has been significant and developing countries, in order to succeed in the growth of production and export of their industrial goods under the constraint of globalization, have no choice but to increase production and export of high-tech products, use more advanced production techniques and save on production costs. This is especially true in the case of Iran, which has always faced the problem of macroeconomic indicators due to its dependence on oil revenues and the destructive impact of oil revenues on political and economic issues, especially the issue of oil sanctions. In this regard, the aim of the present study was to investigate the factors affecting the export of high-tech products based on the four-digit ISIC codes in Iran in the period 1397-1375 using the ARDL Panel method.
The results of the study show that the costs of domestic research and development, foreign accumulation of research and development and commercialization in the short and long term, and the degree of openness of the economy and human capital in the long run have a positive and significant effect on high-tech exports in Iran. Also, the exchange rate in the short term has no meaningless effect and in the long run has no negative and significant effect, and inventions in the short and long term have no significant effect on the export of these products.
Yahya Soleimanimagham, Younes Nademi, Mehdi Chegeni,
Volume 11, Issue 42 (12-2020)
Abstract
Crime is a phenomenon that exists in all societies and affects the useful functioning of different parts of a country. Also, Iranian society is not safe from the harms of this phenomenon. Given the destructive effects of crime in society, recognizing the factors affecting it makes it possible to fight it more effectively. For this purpose, this study has investigated the effect of misery index on the rate of theft in 30 provinces of the country during the years 2008-2018. In order to achieve this goal, the Panel generalized method of moment (GMM) has been used. The findings of this study have shown that the misery index has an increasing effect on the crime of theft. In other words, the misery index through the two channels of inflation and unemployment has destructive effects on people's living standards and puts them on the path of committing crimes such as theft.
Shahryar Zaroki, Mastaneh Yadolahi Otaghsara, Arman Yousefi Barfurushi,
Volume 11, Issue 42 (12-2020)
Abstract
The lack of social security supports and labor market laws in informal employment has strengthened the expectation that poverty in a family in which the head of the household chooses informal employment is greater than in a family in which the head of the household works in the formal sector. Hence, this study attempts to investigate the effect of informal employment with other factors affecting household’s poverty. To this aim, by using the microdata plan of costs and incomes of urban and rural households in 2018, first, the poverty line was calculated based on 66% of the average annual household expenditures by provincial division for urban and rural areas; and poor households were identified as well. Then, according to the presented index in this study, heads of households' employment types were formally and informally determined. In the primary data processing, a comparison between households with employed heads showed that the highest poverty rates were for households whose heads work in informal employment. Next, the estimation of the research model with the dependent variable limited to the basis of pseudo-panel data and random effects in logistic regression was performed in a separate format for 13248 urban households and 13115 rural households in 31 provinces. The results showed that the informal employment of the head of the households has a direct effect on the possibility of household poverty and the rate of influence in urban areas is higher than in rural areas. Furthermore, the head of the household's education, age, and gender have an indirect effect; and the square number of age and size of the household variables have a direct effect on the probability of household poverty. In such a way that the desired effect of education and age, and the undesired effect of the household dimension on the probability of household poverty in urban areas is greater than in rural areas.
