Journal of Economic Modeling Research

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The foreign direct investment is one of the economic variables that can positively affect the economic growth, but according to some researches this does not apply to some countries. These researches implicate that this lack of positive effect is due to domestic qualification of the home country. One of the essential qualifications for positive effectiveness of foreign direct investment on the economic growth is the existence of developed financial market. Therefore, in this research we intend to examine the role of financial market in the effectiveness of foreign direct investment on the economic growth. To do this we made use of the data from 57 countries in the period 1990-2005 and the econometric technique of panel data. The results show that in developed countries because of their financial market, the effect of foreign direct investment on economic growth is positive and significant whereas in developing countries this effect is not significant.

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This paper focuses on the role of uncertainty about the number of surviving children. The survey discusses the effects of declining mortality rates on fertility, education and economic growth. The construction of the paper is an OLG model in which individuals make choices about fertility decision over their lifetimes subject to uncertainty about the immortality. The simulation of model using actual changes reveals the fact that if the uncertainty about child survival enters to growth model, the population becomes an inverted u-shaped function of income per capita. As the mortality rate and thus uncertainty falls, the precautionary demand for children decreases. Furthermore, lower mortality encourages investment in children’s education .Also the calibrated version of the model using realistic estimates demonstrates that at low levels of income, population growth rises leading to Malthusian steady-state equilibrium, whereas at high levels of income population growth declines leading to a sustained growth steady-state equilibrium.

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The purpose of this article is to study the factor content of trade in Iran. To improve the trade affair, Iran needs a suitable model for production, export and import of required goods. Factor content of trade detects and amplifies it to pay. In this paper using (HOV) model and input-output (IO) we evaluate factor content of trade in different sectors in 1991-2001. The results show that Factor content of trade in 67 percent of the activities (28 sections) has been negative and 33 percent of the activities (13 sections) are positive

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Intermediate goods are another produced factor of production, like capital. Considering intermediate goods in production function makes multiplier be even larger than the one. In this paper, based on the approach of Jones (2007,2010) We computed multipliers by intermediate goods. For this purpose, we used Input – Output table of Statistical Center of Iran (base year: 2001). Finding show that 10.6% of total products used in inter- sector transaction and 4.28% used in intera-sector transaction. Therefore, the domestic multiplier is 1.383 and import multiplier is 2.117 and total multiplier is 2.929.These results indicate increase in the multiplier. The industrial sector and mining sector produce the most and the lowest share of domestic intermediate goods, respectively. The highest and lowest shares of imported intermediate goods between economic sectors are in industrial sector and water sector, respectively

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Macroeconomic performance has improved in many countries in the world in the last fifteen years or so. Much of the literature has concentrated on how central bank independence, inflation targeting regimes, and currency :::union:::s have contributed to improving the effectiveness of monetary policy and hence macroeconomic performance. Since the financial system is a key component of the monetary transmission mechanism, we study how a country’s financial development affects monetary policy efficiency in 28 developed and developing countries within 1995-2006. Specifically, our objective is to derive monetary policy efficiency measures (PEMs) - derivative from Krause and Rioja- for 28 Developed and developing countries and analyze the impact that the size and depth of the banking sector and the capital sector have on policy performance. In our empirical analysis we use three financial development measures: private credit, liquid liabilities, and a financial aggregate index that comprises banking and stock market measures. The Results of model estimation with generalized method of moments (GMM) technique, shows that financial development with mentioned indicators has a positive and significant effect on monetary policy efficiency. Also supervision in central bank independency and inflation targeting regimes -as control variables- has positive and significant effect on monetary policy efficiency. This result doesn’t make a difference whether the country is developed or developing and in the both of them more developed financial markets, controlling the central bank independency and applying inflation targeting regimes, significantly help to achieve a more efficient monetary policy.

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The magnitude of economic growth depends on the growth and investment in key economic sectors. Thus, one important goal of policy makers and economic planners in any society is to identify key economic sectors. This paper aims at identifying these sectors in Iranian economy using stochastic input-output analysis. Stochastic analysis is used to investigate how the inherent imprecision affects the concomitant key sector analysis in case of utilizing aggregated data. The analysis is based on Iranian input-output table for the year 2001, using distance estimation and Monte Carlo simulation. Results of the non-stochastic approach indicate that among 25 economic sectors in aggregated input-output table, six sector-groups are the key sectors while, in non-aggregated input-output table with 99 sectors, 13 sector-groups can be identified as key sectors. Finally the suggestion is that to identify key economic sectors the non-aggregated input-output table should be used.