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Showing 6 results for Mamipour
The Role of Institutional Quality in the relationship of Real Exchange Rate and Oil Price, Case study: Oil-Exporting Economies
Dr Behzad Salmani, Dr Davood Behbudi , Siab Mamipour ,
Volume 2, Issue 4 (6-2011)
Abstract
The optimal usage of oil as a natural resource is an important problem in exporting countries. These countries always are encountered with uncertainty and volatility of oil prices and its effects on real exchange rate. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship of between oil prices and exchange rate by emphasizing institutional quality in during 1995-2006. The model of this paper is estimated by panel data approach. Findings show that the oil prices have a positive effect on real exchange rate and it reduces international competition power. But institutional quality affects the extent to which the real exchange rates of oil-exporting countries co-move with the oil price. The results show that countries with high institutional quality such as control of corruption and regularity quality have real exchange rates which co-move less with the oil price.
The Effects of Direct Distribution of Oil Revenues on GDP in Iran: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach
Dr Davoud Behboudi, Dr Mohammad Ali Motafkker Azad, Siab Mamipour,
Volume 3, Issue 10 (12-2012)
Abstract

  Oil revenues play a significant role in the government budget in Iran and have also an important impact on GDP. This study aims at providing a practical solution for the question of how oil revenues should be managed. In this regard, a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model has developed to examine the direct effect of distribution of oil revenues on GDP in both static and dynamic approaches .

  The results of static model show that the direct distribution of oil revenues to households has a negative effect on the government expenditures and therefore decrease the GDP . The dynamic model allows the conversion of savings into investment and capital formation. So the results of running this model show the positive effect of direct distribution of oil revenues on GDP and also the negative effect of this policy on the government current spending. Therefore, the results confirm that direct distribution of oil revenues is an effective policy in reducing the dependence of government on oil revenues and also in relying more on people and the tax revenues .


The Analysis of Factors That Influence the Environmental Efficiency in Iranian Electric Industry: DEA Approach and Panel Data
Mr Behnam Najafzadeh, Mr Siab Mamipour,
Volume 8, Issue 27 (3-2017)
Abstract

In this paper to assess the environmental efficiency of electric power companies two-stage approach has been used Which means that the first step is to calculate the environmental efficiency score of electric power companies with Slack-Based Measure during the period (2004-2014). Then, the second step various factors effects have been evaluated on environmental efficiency by using Tobit and Ordinary Least Squares models. The result of first step show that environmental performance of the electricity industry has seen a reduction in performance during the period of 2004 to 2006, While environmental performance had a rising trend between 2007 to 2009 and then it has had a considerable reduction in the period 2010-2014 (after the liberalization of energy prices). Finally, in 2004, the average efficiency of the industry is reached to lowest level (0.65). The result of second step show that factors affecting efficiency namely Size and Liberation dummy variables have negative effects but the proportion of electricity produced by the thermal power plants, the proportion of gas used in the fuel, capacity utilization rate and electricity exports have positive effects. The results show that importing electricity doesn’t have any significance effect on the efficiency. In the end, the results of adding a new variable (variable log of per capita GDP) showed that except for the proportion of gas used in the fuel, the explanatory variables has robust coefficient.


The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Transitional Dynamics of Business Cycles in Iran: Markov Switching Model with Time Varying Transition Probabilities (MS-TVTP)
Siab Mamipour, Hadis Abdi,
Volume 9, Issue 34 (12-2018)
Abstract
The business cycles are one of the most important economic indicators that they show the changes in economic activities during time. The study of business cycles is important because the understanding fluctuations in GDP and effective factors on these fluctuations help policy makers to plan better and more efficient. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of oil price shocks on business cycles dynamics in Iranian economy during period of 2005 to 2017 by using non-linear Markov switching model with the time varying transitional probabilities (MS-TVTP). So, first, the oil price shocks were extracted in four different modes, and then the effect of them on recession and boom regimes are investigated. The results of MS-TVTP model show that business cycles are affected by oil price fluctuations and shocks in Iran’s economy. The results indicate that, in all four modes which oil price shocks were calculated, the positive shocks in oil price increase the probability of staying in boom regime. Also positive oil price shocks increase the probability of transition from the recession regime in Iran’s economy. Also, with relative comparison of the coefficients of oil price shocks in the probability of staying in boom regime and transition from recession to boom regime, it can be argued that positive oil price shocks in recession period increases the probability of transition from recession more than the boom regime. In other words, oil price shocks in recession periods have a greater effect on rotation of economic situation and increase the probability of transition from recession regime, but in the boom regime, the positive oil price shock lead to increases the probability of staying in boom regime a little.

Modeling Valuation of Companies Based on Technology and Innovation a Case Study on Gamron Petro Industry Co.
Ali Mirzaei, Ali Nazemi, Siab Mamipour,
Volume 12, Issue 45 (11-2021)
Abstract
Achieving reality-based valuation of innovative companies is an undeniable challenge for the founders and investors of innovation. The purpose of this study is to model a logical, innovative and scalable approach to valuing innovative companies. In this way, by selecting the Earning Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) of the studied innovative company, as a state variable and simulating its future income flows based on Arithmetic Brownian Motion (ABM) standard and using the framework of Real Option Valuation (ROV) method, the valuation model was created. The accuracy and efficiency of this model was proved by extracting the data of the fiscal years from 1392 to 1395 of Gamron Petro Industry Exchange Company and comparing the results of the model with the market value of the company in Tehran Stock Exchange. On the other hand, in order to test the effect of real interest rate on the model results, by defining three different values of real interest rate, the effect of real interest rate fluctuation on the model evaluation results was investigated. Thus, the high flexibility of the model using the method of real option valuation is fully reflected in the research results.

The Long-term Electricity Planning in Iran under the Paris Agreement
Mr Hossein Hafezi, Mr Siab Mamipour,
Volume 13, Issue 49 (12-2022)
Abstract
Climate change has emerged as a significant global challenge, with its impact increasing rapidly in recent decades. The consumption of fossil fuels, which leads to the emission of greenhouse gases like CO2, is a major contributor to climate change. Iran, ranked as the sixth most polluted country in the world, emitted a staggering 745 million tons of CO2 in 2020. Notably, the power plants sector in Iran accounts for roughly 30% of its total carbon emissions. As a result, the main objective of this paper is to engage in long-term planning for electricity supply and demand in Iran, aiming to reduce carbon emissions in line with the country's obligations under the Paris Agreement. To achieve this goal, we utilized the MESSAGE model to design an electricity generation system that takes into account the potential of renewable sources from 2021 to 2050. Additionally, the ARDL model was employed to estimate electricity demand under various scenarios, including subsidy reforms. These predictions were then incorporated into the long-term planning process for Iran's electricity supply system. The findings of the ARDL model highlight that the subsidy reform strategy leads to a 10% decrease in electricity demand throughout the planning period, indicating effective control over the demand side. On the other hand, the MESSAGE model's findings reveal that Iran's ability to fulfill its responsibilities under the Paris Agreement heavily relies on the utilization of renewable potentials across different regions in power supply planning. While carbon dioxide emissions in Iran's electrical sector are not expected to be reduced in the near future (2020 to 2030). However, in the long term (2040 to 2050), significant reductions in CO2 emissions can be achieved. According to the findings, if the electricity system in Iran is designed in accordance with a chosen scenario that incorporates green technologies and subsidy reforms, the share of renewable technologies can increase from 6% in 2020 to 15%, 50%, and 78% in 2030, 2040, and 2050, respectively. Consequently, carbon emissions in the power generation sector can be reduced by 20% and 54% in 2040 and 2050, respectively, compared to 2020 levels.

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