Dr Alimorad Sharifi, Dr Gholam Hossain Kiani, Dr Rahman Khosh Akhlagh, Mohamad Mahdi Bagheri,
Volume 4, Issue 11 (3-2013)
Abstract
Although fossil fuels consumption may causes to rapid economic growth, but due to related pollutants and its consequences, the world has suffered from climate changes. Moreover, fossil fuel resources such as petroleum, gas, coal and uranium are being exhausted rapidly in the last decades. Therefore, seeking an appropriate as well as low-cost alternative for the above-mentioned energy carriers is one of the most important research topics. Regarding this situation, the utilization of renewable energy sources especially solar and wind energies is very important.
In this study, the social welfare is maximized and optimal trajectory of solar and wind energy substitution is derived by using an optimal control approach. The model is solved empirically by genetic algorithm using MATLAB software.
The results show that assuming social discount rate of 5% and no reduction in solar and wind energy conversion cost during next years, transition from fossil energy to solar and wind energy must occur in 2089 while assuming a 50 % reduction in solar and wind energy conversion cost in every 10 years period, this transition must take place in 2032.
Qholamreza Rezaei, Hamid Shahrestani, Kambiz Hozhabre Kiani, Mohsen Mehrara,
Volume 10, Issue 36 (6-2019)
Abstract
After the recent financial crisis, especially the financial crisis 2008, This raises the important question of what is the role of monetary policy in occurrence and prevention of the financial instability? so, this paper investigate the dynamics impact of monetary policy on the stock market returns and instability using Structural Vector Autoregression (SVARs) model During the period 1992:q2 to 2017:q1. In this study, the effect of monetary policies via the various monetary tools used by the Central Bank on the stock market is studied. to illustrate the performance of monetary policies, the four variables of weighted interest rate, monetary base growth rate, bank reserve ratio, and growth of commercial banks' debt to the central bank have been used as monetary policy tools. The results of the impulse response function(IRF) show that monetary policy tools do not affect the stock market returns and instability. The results of the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) also show that the share of monetary tools in explaining the changes in stock market returns and instability is insignificant and less than ten percent each. Although, the monetary base share is higher than the others, so the central bank's policy tools do not has a particular impact on the behavior and instability of the stock market.
Ali Kiani, Karim Eslamloueyan, Phd Roohollah Shahnazi, Parviz Rostamzadeh,
Volume 10, Issue 38 (12-2019)
Abstract
In recent years, some research has focused on the importance of the origin of an oil shock for macroeconomic dynamics in both oil-exporting and importing countries. The existing literature lacks a proper open Stochastic Dynamic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework to investigate the effect of the origins of oil shocks on macro variables in a two-country model consisting of an oil-exporting county and an oil-importing country. To this end, we develop and solve a new Keynesian DSGE model to show how the different oil shocks originating from oil supply or oil demand, might have diverse impacts on key macroeconomic variables in oil-exporting and importing counties. For the case study, we use data from Iran as an example of an oil-exporting country that trades with the rest of the world. Our DSGE model is estimated by using the Bayesian method for the period 1986:1-2017:4. The result shows that an oil shock originated from the shortage of oil supply (an exogenous decrease in Iran's oil production) decreases total production, non-oil trade, employment, inflation and consumption in this oil-exporting country. While a negative oil supply shock increases production costs and reduces production and consumption in Iran. However, an oil shock originated from an increase in the demand for oil raises output, non-oil trade, employment, consumption, and inflation in Iran as an oil-exporting country while a demand-side oil shock boosts production and increases inflation in this country.
