Journal of Economic Modeling Research

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Value Added Tax (VAT) as a method of tax charging with creating a new tax base broad has been interest of many countries. Also Value Added Tax in our country in order to reform the structure of tax and increasing government revenues was approved by the House after a relatively long time and in the second quarter of year 1387 was carried out. Given that this law as an experiment and for five year was carried out study of effects of this tax on macroeconomic variables is of particular importance. In this study has tried to use the analytical relationships Input-Output and production of technical coefficient matrix constant assumption of fixed economic conditions and economic variables and limiting assumptions of this study to the price effects resulting from applying VAT on cost of whole different departments to deal with the country's economy. By using of model price of input - output and applying tax rates issue of Article 12 on exemption for goods and services and ultimately applying export exemption issue of Article 13 on value added tax the price effects of each section of economy is calculated and with and with considering of share of each section from the whole output the price effects is calculated. Results show that implementation of VAT has had very low price effects.

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The subject of microeconomics is the behavior of firms, individuals and government. According to production theory, rational behavior of the firms, leads to profit maximization. So, one of the most important rational questions in production theory, is the determination of a suitable location of the firm. In the last two decades, several theories have been proposed to analyze the factors affecting the location of economic activities. These theories emphasize on many factors that can be summarized in two categories: factors affecting supply and demand. The aim of this article is to determine and analyze factors affecting the location of electronics industry in Iran. In this regard, 25 factors were identified. Whoever, this number of explanatory variables decreases the number of degree of freedom in a Logit and/or Probit model dramatically. So, the principal component analysis was used to decrease the number of LHS variables. Results show that the industrial development and the creation and maintenance of facilities have important effects on the location of electronics industry in different provinces of Iran. Also due to high proportion of the value to the weight of the final products or the high mobility and tradability of electronics industry products, local and surrounding area‘s income have negative impacts on the industry location.

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One of the most important aspects of vulnerability of the Iran economy can be observed in depreciation of real exchange rate during the oil booms. This phenomenon is called "Dutch disease". In other words when a country starts exporting natural resources, the ensuing capital inflows lead to an increase in demand. The real exchange rate (RER) typically appreciates due to “spending effect” as the price of domestic nontradables increases relative to the price of tradables. The main objective of this paper is to examine the cyclical patterns of the house price and macroeconomic variables in Iran. Using Hodrick and Prescot filtering method, the cross-correlation analysis is first presented to identify the long-run behavior of the variables. Then based on the vector autoregressive (VAR) model, we investigate the interaction between housing price cycles and cyclical component of real oil revenue, real exchange rate, real GDP, money supply and interest rate. The results show that positive oil shocks, leads to an increase in housing price cycles.

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  This research aims to analyze the effects of industrial agglomeration on regional economic growth in the Iranian provinces. For this aim, this study is divided into theoretical and applied sectors.

  In the theoretical point of view, the research has proposed a simple theoretical framework to study the impacts of industrial agglomeration on regional economic growth. In applied sector, we have specified econometrics models and estimated them by using a system of simultaneous equations using Panel Data for 28 provinces of Iran over the period 2000-2006.

  Results show that regional economic growth is positively affected by industrial agglomeration and regional knowledge level and negatively affected by human capital mobility cost and per capita income. Results also show that regional economic growth, transportation cost, household expenditure and human capital mobility cost have positive effects on industrial agglomeration in the Iranian provinces.

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Generally,some booms in housing prices are followed by busts. One common phenomenon relating these changes is that the house price cycle is generally believed to the product of the short-run deviations from the long-run upward trends. The long-term cyclical fluctuation in Iran’s housing market was periodically occurred about every 6 years.
 Furthermore, Movements in house prices have significant impact on household welfare, financial stability and business cycles. Being able to forecast housing price booms is therefore of central importance for central banks, financial supervision authorities as well as for other economic agents. However, forecasting house prices using only a single or a few selected variables at a time intuitively appears efficient because only a single variable almost contain all of the pertinent investigative information about the past behavior of the variable. In this study, wavelet decomposition has been used to extract the cyclical components of house price, and then using the cyclical components and neural network methodwe start to forecast the booms in housing prices in 2013.

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This study sought to evaluate the effect of changes in the composition of interregional intermediate exports and total volume of intermediate exports on the sectoral output of Golestan province and other regions using two-regional input-output model. For this purpose, at first, two-regional input- output tables for each of these region (Golestan province and other regions of country) were prepared for years 2006 and 2010 and then evaluate the effect of change in volume and composition of interregional exports on output changes in this regions using structural decomposition analysis (SDA). The results of the model for Golestan province indicate that the export of Golestan province to other regions of the country in study periods has decreased 349/09 billion Rials, and thereby total output of this province decreased 335/76 billion Rials. Also changes in composition of exports of Golestan province to other regions lead to increase 9.78 billion Rials in total output of this province.

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This paper considers spatial distribution of industrial activities and effective factors on such a distribution. Ellison and Glaeser’s spatial concentration index, has been used for measureing spatial distribution of industry. This index has been calculated by Ad-value variable for 30 provinces of Iran and for period of 2006-2013. So, The spatial panel data model has been used in order to stimate impact of effective factors on spatial concentration. Results of this paper, show that distribution of industrial activities between provinces is strongly unequal. Azarbaijan Sharghi, Markazi, Ghazvin and Tehran provinces by 0.03, 0.04, 0.05 and 0.06 for EG index, are the most industrial provinces respectively. Boushehr, Hormozgan and Ilam provinces with 0.68, 0.28 and 0.26 for EG index are the worst industrial provinces. Also, Results from estimating model show that spatial dependance of provinces is equal to 0.31. Increasing return to scale and transportation costs, each one by 0.07 and 0.001 for coefficient in model, are effective on spatial distribution of industry.

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Some unique characteristics of housing goods such as spatial dependency, heterogeneity and durability make housing market analysis different from ordinary goods. However principles in ordinary goods market such as profit maximization are used by developer in housing market. one of the housing market characteristic is that land as a most important input for housing services production has low demand elasticity because of its scarcity. This always makes housing services developer in housing market to substitute capital (construction materials) instead of land. In economics, for demonstrating this kind of substitution, elasticity of substitution is used. Since land has a local market and the intensity of scarcity in cities is different so there are different numbers for elasticity of substitution in different cities and regions. This paper is trying for estimating elasticity of substitution n a median city by gathering data survey. The results show elasticity of substitution between land and capital in housing services production in city of Dorud is 1/04 percent in 2018.

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Rental housing has been affected by housing prices in different periods and the growth of housing prices has reduced the purchasing power of housing applicants and increased the percentage of rented households. Therefore, any recession and boom in the housing sector has a direct impact on the housing rental market, and planning to control the rental market will not be achieved without considering the housing market. In this regard, the purpose of this study is to investigate the factors affecting housing rent based on two groups included large, small and medium cities in Iran using the Generalized moment method (GMM) in the period (2008-2018). The results show that housing rental prices in the previous period, housing prices, land leverage and real per capita income of urban households had the most positive impact on housing rents in both large and small and medium cities. Also, the impact of housing prices and rental prices in the previous period has been greater in large cities. Also, Housing bank facilities, the number of urban marriages and the real interest rate were other variables affecting the rental price of housing in urban areas.

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'space economy' It is the general theory of locating all economic activities in which the geographical distribution of inputs (Intermediate or production factors) and geographical distribution of output (intermediate and final consumption markets), Along with spatial changes, prices and costs are considered. In this concept, the general equilibrium approach in terms of transportation costs and distance is suggested for economic analysis.. Due to the fact that in this approach, several factors influence the creation of balance. The aim of the current research is to model the factors affecting the economy of space in Iranian metropolises (Tehran, Karaj, Qom, Isfahan, Mashhad, Shiraz, Tabriz and Ahvaz) using the Markov switching panel approach. Based on the results of provincial added value; public investment; Higher education as a representative of the knowledge economy in the province and the share of the urban population, which indicates the degree of industrialization of the examined cities had a positive effect on investment in space, and the variables of the share of old age in the total population of the province and inflation had a negative effect on investment in this variable; Also, based on the results of the major research on investment in the field of space in the big cities of Iran except Tehran and Karaj in recent years, which coincides with the boom years in the estimation model; It has been done.