Journal of Engineering Geology

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In contrast with Mobility Factor (MF) and Risk Assessment Code (RAC) indices, I_R attributes a risk share to metal species bound to reducible and oxidizable phases which are totally neglected in both of the two above-mentioned indices. In other words, besides the absolutely mobile fractions, the potentially mobile ones are also regarded in risk evaluation process elaborated by I_R. The different structure of the newly-developed index may prevent risk level underestimation especially in case where a remarkable percent of bulk concentration is accumulated within reducible and oxidizable phases. The independency of the index value to the bulk concentration makes it possible to discuss the potential risk in different levels of bulk concentration. Furthermore, the index capability in indication of risky pollution, regardless of the pollution source type, may prevent the probable misleading caused by distinct separation of bulk concentration into geopogenic and anthropogenic portion

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Objective of the present research is to identify, analyze, and assess risk of Paveroud Dam during construction phase. Following collection and analysis of the information related to environmental conditions of the area of study and technical specifications of dam construction, a list of probable risk factors was prepared in the form of a questionnaire, and for verification, the questionnaires were provided to a group of specialists consisting of elites and professors specialized at the disciplines relevant to environment and civil engineering. Number of questionnaires was determined based on Cochran’s formula. In the first step, the expert group in the research was asked to score in Likert scale format so as to analyze the acquired responses and the risks present in the region. Having analyzed the scores using the findings of PHA method, TOPSIS technique was applied to prioritize the identified risks of Paveroud Dam. The results indicated that erosion had the highest priority among 36 risk factors. After prioritization among the risk factors, risk was also assessed using RAM-D technique in which “impact on Sorkhabad Protected Zone with 9 scores, “erosion” with 6 scores, and “work at high elevation” with 3 scores were recognized as three major risks of Paveroud Dam. In order to mitigate the effects of dam risks during construction phase, environmental management planning is crucial, and for this purpose, risk mitigation choices were recommended at the end aimed at coping with the identified risks.

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Extended Abstract
Introduction
The presence of potentially toxic elements in the environment and especially in soil has been one of the greatest concerns due to their health implications. Potentially toxic elements from anthropogenic sources tend to be more mobile than those from lithogenic or pedogenic sources.  Generally, the distribution of potentially toxic elements is influenced by the nature of parent materials, climatic conditions, and their relative mobility depending on soil parameters, such as mineralogy, texture and class of soil. In the inhabited, and industrial areas, vicinity to the un-engineered landfills, excess accumulation of toxic elements in surface soils can directly threaten wellbeing of exposed inhabitants via ingestion, inhalation and dermal contact routes. A few studies conducted on risk assessment of potentially toxic elements in soils of Kermanshah province, west of Iran. Soil in the study area is susceptible to contamination by anthropogenic activities in the form of industrial wastewater, agricultural activities, solid waste, runoff, atmospheric deposition and especially un-engineered landfills. The presence of toxic elements in soil around of un-engineered landfills without proper consideration to the environmental protection measures, will certainly lead to a significant environmental hazard in Kermanshah province. Therefore, the main purposes of this study are to evaluate the contamination levels, health risk assessment, and source identification of As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn in the Gasre Shirin, Gilane Gharb, Paveh, Javanrood, Eslamshahr, Ravansar, Kermanshah and Sanghar un-engineered landfills.
 
Material and methods
     A total of 30 topsoil samples were collected (0-20 cm depth) from the eight un-engineered landfills of the Kermanshah province. In order to achieve a representative sample, composite samples were prepared by mixing the four subsamples taken at each corners of 2×2 m square cell because composite sampling yields homogenized samples for analyses. The subsamples were mixed and a final sample of 1 kg was taken by repeated coning and quartering. To determine background concentration of heavy metals, eight soil samples were collected from areas far from known sources of contamination (40-60 cm depth).
The collected samples were immediately stored in polyethylene bags and air-dried in the laboratory at room temperature. Then, samples passed through a 2mm stainless steel sieve. The <2mm fraction was ground in an agate mortar and pestle and passed through a 63 micron sieve. In order to determine the concentration of As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn complete dissolution of soil samples (approximately 1 g of each) was carried out using a mixture of HF, HNO₃, HClO₄ and H₂O₂ in a Teflon beaker on sand bath at atmospheric pressure. The concentrations of the selected elements were measured by an accredited commercial laboratory (Zar Azma Laboratory, Iran) using ICP-MS methods. Data quality was ensured through the use of internal duplicates, blanks, and HRM. The precision and accuracy of measurements are 95% and +/-5% respectively.
The assessment of soil contamination was carried out using geochemical indices including contamination factor (CF), modified degree of contamination (mC_d) and enrichment factor (EF). The methodology used for the health risk assessment was based on the guidelines and Exposure Factors Handbook of US Environmental Protection Agency. The average daily doses (ADDs) of heavy metals received through ingestion, inhalation, and dermal contact for both adults and children were calculated. In this study, hazard quotient (HQ), hazard index (HI) and carcinogenic risk (RI) methods were used to estimate non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic effects of heavy metals. The HQ was calculated by subdividing ADD of a heavy metal to its reference dose (RfD) for the same exposure pathway(s). If the ADD exceeds the RfD, HQ>1, it is likely that there will be adverse health effects, whereas if the ADD is less than the RfD, HQ<1, it is considered that there will be no adverse health effects. A hazard index (HI), the sum of HQs, which means the total risk of non- carcinogenic element via three exposure pathways for single element of <1 indicates no adverse health effects, while HI values >1 show possible adverse health effects. Carcinogenic risk is regarded as the probability of an individual developing any type of cancer in the whole life time due to exposure to carcinogenic hazards and was calculated for As and Cd as follows:
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The value of SF represents the probability of developing cancer per unit exposure level of mg/kg day. The acceptable risk range for carcinogens is set to 10^-6 to by the USEPA, so that RI values below 10^-6 do not require further action, while risks greater than 10^-4 are considered to be of concern and require additional action to reduce the exposure and resulting risk.
Results and discussion
The soil pH ranges from 7.01 to 8.06, with an average value of 7.51 suggesting neutral conditions. Organic carbon (OC) contents of soil samples ranged from 0.06% to 4.91% (average 1.59%). In this study, based on the USDA textural triangle the main soil textures are loamy, clay loam and sandy loam, respectively.
The average abundance order of selected elements content is: Zn>Ni>Pb>Cr>Cu>As>Cd. Comparison of mean concentration of the potentially toxic elements in the soil samples with mean worldwide values reveals higher Zn, Pb and Ni contents in this area.
The results of contamination factor indicate very high contamination for Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn. Modified Degree of Contamination (mCd) calculated based on background values proves very high degrees of contamination for selected trace elements in Gasre Shirin and Eslamshahr landfills soil samples The results of enrichment factor evaluation similarity to contamination factor indicate that Cd, Cr, Pb, Cu and Zn have more influence from anthropogenic sources. The maximum EF of Pb, Zn and Cd and Cu is 346.7,124 and 51.9 respectively, which means very high enrichment in Ghasre Shirin landfill soil samples.
Exposure doses of 7 heavy metals in soil samples of un-enggenerd landfills for children and adults were calculated. The total exposure HQs calculated based on adults from ingestion, dermal contact, and inhalation for Cd, Cu, Ni, Zn, As and Pb was less than 1(except Ghasreshirin landfill). The hazard quotient values based on the adult risk for Cr were greater than 1.0. The results show that HQ for Pb and As in children by dermal and ingestion pathway is exceeded 1.0 in soil samples of Paveh, Javanrood, Ravansar, Kermanshah and Sangher landfills and Ghasreshirin and Eslamshahr landfills, respectively.
Conclusion
The concentration, pollution level, potential sources and health risk of potentially toxic elements in eight landfills top soil of Kermanshah province were investigated in this study. The following conclusions were drawn from this research.
- Compared with the background values of As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn in soils of Kermanshah Province, landfills soil have elevated metal concentrations as a whole.
- According to high contamination level and health risk of some studied potentially toxic elements, and also due to the proximity of contamination sources to residential district of the study area, more attention should be paid to manage and reduce contamination.
- These results provide basic information of toxic elements pollution control and environment management in the area../files/site1/files/121/Shakerii_Abstract.pdf

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Introduction
 Analysis of time, location and magnitude of foreshocks and aftershocks has been one of the most important cases for experts in various scientific fields such as: seismology, structural engineering and crisis management, and other interrelated fields. Since this analysis and the result of studies on seismotectonic and cases of earthquakes help us identify the foreshocks and aftershocks with the goal of decreasing losses and nervious stress of the injured community in quake-stricken areas and skilled crisis management. The cause fault of earthquake plays the important role in foreshocks and aftershocks of the earthquake. So, study on fault behaviour is a suitable method for analyzing and routing the basic parameters of foreshocks and aftershocks. Also, foreshocks and aftershock are important parts of any earthquake in a seismic area. The analysis of the basic parameters of the foreshocks is one of the most practical researches for reducing the risk of earthquakes. The identification of behavioral pattern of foreshocks can help researchers detect the active fault conditions for the occurrence of earthquakes in different areas. The present study is concerned with the study of behavioral patterns earthquakes, foreshocks, and aftershock of Zohan earthquake. Experience of large aftershocks in different parts of the world indicates that, following earthquakes and depending on seismic-tectonic conditions, large aftershocks are likely to occur in the earthquake-effected zone, which will aggravate the damage caused by earthquakes (Omi et al., 2013). The main factor contributing to the worsening of damage caused by aftershocks is the performance of structures that are weakened but not destroyed by main earthquakes and are, thus, highly likely to be destroyed by large aftershocks (Saket and Fatemi Aghda, 2006).
Material and methods
The present paper makes use of data collected in a real earthquake and similar expriences in other earthquakes for presenting a practical pattern for predicting primary earthquake patterns, determining the location, magnitude, and time of aftershocks. The target of this case is decreasing the effects of earthquake. To this end, we used the results from studies on basic parameters of foreshocks and aftershocks of Zohan earthquake, and 2012 earthquake in South Khorasan province. The rationale for selecting the aforementioned studies is: location of event, the Zohan earthquake, had been identificated as an area with high risk for the occurrence of earthquakes, although there has been no wide-scale earthquake in this area in the last two decades. These conditions are important causes for more concentrated studies on this area because there is a high chance for wide-scale earthquakes striking this area.
Result and Discussion
In this part of research, we conduct a study on the location, magnitude and depth of foeshocks. Some of the world-wide research suggested that these data can help to predict the time of  mainshocks. Studies conducted on the variations of frequency in foreshocks can follow this goal.
In this paper, the available statistical data such as periodical variations of seismicity in the weeks leading up to the main shock can be used as a tool for estimating the approximate time of a future important earthquake. The weekly variations of seismicity before Zohan earthquake indicate a relative increase and then decrease within a 100 km radius around the epicenter of the main shock.
 
Table 1: Variations of frequency of foreshock based magnitude before Zohan earthquake

Week before main shock	Frequency of foreshock in the Radius of 100Km from main shock	Frequency of foreshock(with M>2.5) in the Radius of 100Km from main shock
6	0	0
5	1	1
4	1	0
3	2	0
2	5	3
1	2	0

 
Studies on numerous earthquakes in Iran and other regions in the world show that the distribution of aftershocks can be related to fault type or the direction of principal stress (Saket and Fatemi Aghda, 2006) and (King et al., 1994). Whereas maximum Coulomb stress change is related to maximum principal stress in earthquakes, the concentration of aftershocks can coincide with the direction of maximum principal stress (σ₁) of the causative fault in mainshock. Considering the direction of maximum principal stress and its adaptation to the scattering of aftershocks, the above hypothesis is confirmed.
Also studies on frequency changes and seismic quiescence of small aftershocks help us in predicting future aftershocks. The results the of presented research by Itawa (2008) on the World earthquake catalogue suggest that seismic quiescence theory is true for different regions of the world. Based on the results of the  study mentioned above, this case can be used as a tool for predicting large aftershocks in Zohan earthquake.

Fig 1. Adaptation of direction of maximum principal stress with scatering of the aftershocks of Zohan earthquake. a: direction of maximum principal stress (σ₁) of the causative fault in mainshock. b- scaterring of the aftershocks
Table 2: Seismic sequience versus magnitude of aftershocks

Row	Seismic Quiescence for aftershocks	Aftershock Magnitude	Data and Time of aftershocks
1	13	3.0	2012/12/05 17:21:03
2	36	3.4	2012/12/05 17:57:03
3	161	3.1	2012/12/05 20:38:09
4	3906	3.9	2012/12/08 13:44:19

In addation, frequency of aftershocks and certain time distance (seismic quiescence) between their can use precursors for detecting the time of large aftershocks. The relevant analysis in this study showed that methods such as: time series beside seismic quiescence can help in conducting a more accurate time forecast of large aftershocks.
Conclusion

• The results of this research suggest that we can identify some of the charactristics of the main shock by focusing on location, magnitude and depth of foeshocks.
• In Zohan earthquake, the direction of maximum principal stress is adpated to the scattering of aftershocks, and this case suggests that there is a specific relationship between them.
• The relevant analysis in this study showed that the methods such as: time series beside seismic quiescence can help conduct a more accurate time forecast of large aftershocks../files/site1/files/144/saket.pdf

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We collected soil samples at 23 sites from the petroleum contaminated soils (PC) in the west of Kermanshah province to investigate the sources and ecological risk of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). In this study, source apportionment has been carried out using Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF).The total PAHs concentration, have a mean value of 92.79 mg/kg, ranging from 7.37 to 609.67 mg/kg in PC soil samples. The average abundance order of different PAH ring compounds are 3 rings > 5+6 rings > 4 rings> 2 rings. The ecological risk assessment of PAHs revealed that all of the PAHs levels were higher contents than the effects range low (ERL) value and show higher concentrations than the ERM values, except for Pyr, Chr, BaA, BbF, BkF and BaP in the soil samples. The result of benzo (a) pyrene equation (BaP_eq) values indicates that the carcinogenic potency of PAHs should be given more attention due to the impending environmental risk in the study areas. Based on the PMF analysis four sources of PAHs are identified including coal combustion (21.48%), vehicular source (13.74%), unburned petroleum (20.84%) and creosotes (43.92%).Therefore, it was concluded that petroleum activities were major sources of PAHs in west of Kermanshah province.

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