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Mohamad Nakhaee,
Volume 4, Issue 1 (AbstractE3.pdf 2010)
Abstract

Today, one of the most problems, for the purpose of flood management is river flow prediction. Prevention of economic body suffering arise of flood is one of the most important achievements of correct flow prediction. Factors and divers parameters influence the discharge, make complex the analysis. Conception-physical model, regression models and time series are the most common- analytical approach of river flow. In this search by using of discharge data of Ghareh Ghanlo station in 13 years ago, the prediction of Sombar river discharge by Box-Jenkins was done. To do so, MINITAB software was used. Also for selecting of the best prediction model used of error evaluation factor and ARIMA (1,1,0) (2,1,1)12 was selected as the best prediction model and finally by use of these methods river discharge for 24 next month, was forecasted. 
Dr Ali Ghanbari, Dr Mohammad Nakhaee, Dr Saeed Kalani, Dr Hamidreza Azizi,
Volume 19, Issue 6 (Accepted Articles 2025)
Abstract

Land subsidence represents a multifaceted geotechnical hazard that exerts profound impacts on environmental stability, infrastructure resilience, and socio-economic security. This research presents a systematic field-based assessment of subsidence manifestations across the Hashtgerd, Eshtehard, and Karaj plains in Alborz Province, derived from extensive surveys conducted during the spring and summer of 2025. Diagnostic indicators—including extensional and compressional ground fissures, localized structural deformations, wellhead displacements, large-scale surface cracks, and variations in groundwater levels—were systematically documented. The Hashtgerd plain, particularly the Saeidabad, Sepehr, and Najmabad areas, exhibited the highest density of subsidence evidence, encompassing progressive surface settlements, widespread fissuring, and instability of near-surface strata. In the Eshtehard plain, structural cracking in school buildings, ground ruptures adjacent to transmission towers, and failures in retaining walls were frequently observed. Deep surface fissures were also identified in the Fathabad region, situated between Eshtehard and Buin Zahra. Conversely, despite significant groundwater withdrawal, field surveys in parts of the Karaj plain revealed no pronounced subsidence indicators. The findings highlight a strong spatial correlation between the severity of subsidence and geological heterogeneity, unregulated groundwater exploitation, and the absence of smart metering systems in wells. This study underscores the urgent need for integrated monitoring frameworks, adaptive management strategies, and the application of advanced remote sensing technologies to mitigate and control the expansion of land subsidence in Alborz Province.
 


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