1- Behbahan Khatam Alanbia University of Technology , motaghed@bkatu.ac.ir
2- Behbahan Khatam Alanbia University of Technology
2- Behbahan Khatam Alanbia University of Technology
Abstract: (1047 Views)
In this study, we present the Seismic Hazard Possibility Space (SHPS) for the city of Ahvaz. To achieve this, we applied the intuitionistic fuzzy method to weigh the logic tree used in the hazard analysis and constructed the SHPS based on expert opinions regarding the degrees of membership and non-membership. Hazard disaggregation was performed by through the concept of intuitionistic fuzzy sets, leading to the development of an intuitionistic fuzzy of an Intuitionistic Fuzzy Logic Tree (IFLT). The SHPS includes both the degree of membership and non-membership for pathways contributing to hazard generation. The SHPS illustrates the acceptance, non-acceptance, and ambiguity associated with potential hazard values from an expert perspective, thus assisting analysts in selecting appropriate hazard values. According to the numerical results of our analysis in the Ahvaz region, the seismic hazard is located in an uncertainty (unacceptability) zone, indicating that experts have low confidence in the results of the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Ahvaz. In addition, the hazard is characterized by an "unconfident zone". This finding indicates that experts are fairly confident in the results of the analysis for Ahvaz. This finding implies that the models and parameters used in the PSHA for this region are not accepted by experts, and further efforts are needed to identify or develop appropriate models and accurate parameters specific to the area. In conclusion, this research demonstrates how intuitionistic fuzzy sets can be used to construct SHPS, providing a novel framework for quantifying uncertainty and expert opinion in hazard assessment.
Keywords: probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), logic tree, uncertainty, occurrence possibility
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