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serd 2022, 11(41): 77-96 |
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Karimzadeh H, Khaleghi A, Bashiri A. Analysis of changes in the employment structure in the major economic sectors in the rural areas of Iran - Shift share & LQ approach. serd 2022; 11 (41) :77-96
URL: http://serd.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3865-en.html
URL: http://serd.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3865-en.html
1- Assistant Professor of Geography and Rural Planning, Tabriz University, Tabriz, Iran.
2- PhD in Geography and Rural Planning, University of Tabriz, INSF Postdoctoral Researcher, Tabriz, Iran ,khaleghi567@tabrizu.ac.ir
3- Master's student in Geography and Rural Planning, Tabriz University, Tabriz, Iran.
2- PhD in Geography and Rural Planning, University of Tabriz, INSF Postdoctoral Researcher, Tabriz, Iran ,
3- Master's student in Geography and Rural Planning, Tabriz University, Tabriz, Iran.
Abstract: (2445 Views)
Introduction
Rural development goals cannot be limited to agricultural and economic growth, and economic and social development needs to be balanced for fair income distribution and rapid creation of benefits from high levels of living. As a result, local planners should know the strength and weaknesses of the local economy. In addition, local economic development planners should know the status of the development of activities in the region and whether their distribution has a competitive advantage.
In this study, we aim to determine the employment status of major sectors and activity groups in Iranian rural areas from 2011 to 2016 and examine the entry and exit of the workforce. So the research questions are:
Which sectors have had the most negative and positive impact on the change in share and place of employment among the different economic sectors?
What was the status of different economic sectors at the level of the country's provinces during 2011-2016?
Has the activity in the agricultural sector faced positive growth from 2011 to 2016?
Methodology
This study used the change-share method to analyze the employment status of the main sectors and groups of economic activity in Iranian rural areas of the provinces from 2011 through 2016. Also, the spatial coefficient index was used for the labour force's entry and exit conditions. Is. The data used in this study is based on the statistics of the Iran Statistics Center.
Discussion and conclusion
According to Keynes, the government should intervene in the economy to achieve full employment. There is a direct relationship between the level of employment and the amount of production, which is related to the effective demand. The distribution of employees shows a growth of 226,590 people between 2011 and 2016. In the share of employment, the agricultural sector has decreased by about 0.1%, the industry sector's share was 2.6% with negative growth, and the service sector share increased by about 2.7%, which shows that the service sector has a high growth compared to other sectors. Regarding the Keynesian economic balance in employment, policymakers should change monetary policies, such as reducing the bank interest rate, and the assets, such as real estate, by imposing taxes on depreciated properties.
The research results show that the rural areas of 13 provinces in the Agriculture, Industry, and Services sectors had basic activities in 2015 in more than ten rural areas. Also, the relative growth of economic sectors in the whole reference economy or the effect of industrial composition (IS) shows that the share of employment in the agricultural sector decreased from 50.4% to 50.3%. In addition, the provinces of Khorasan Razavi, West Azerbaijan and Fars had the highest losses, and the province Alborz, Qom and Semnan had the least losses of employment in the agricultural sector. On the other hand, the least losses in the industry sector were in the provinces of East Azerbaijan, Khorasan Razavi and Fars, and the most employment losses were in Qom, Semnan and Ilam. The increase in service sector employment in Mazandaran, Fars and Tehran provinces was the highest, while Qom, South Khorasan and Semnan Provinces had the lowest increase.
South Khorasan province had the best performance in terms of service sector increase. For the agriculture sector, Hormozgan, Kerman and Khuzestan provinces and Hormozgan and Alborz provinces had good performances in the industry sector. This implies that with the increase in the productivity gap between the production and service sectors, the working population moves from the industry and agriculture sectors to the service sector. The main reason for the expansion of services is the growth of information technology because of its role in solving the unemployment problem and developing the country's economy.
According to the results, the agricultural and industrial sectors in the country's rural areas have no relative advantage in employment. The agricultural sector, considered a non-core activity in the rural areas of Khuzestan province in 2011, became a core activity in 2016. In Fars, it changed from a core activity to a non-core activity. The industry sector in Ilam, Bushehr and Lorestan provinces has changed from non-core to core activity and in Khuzestan province, from core to non-core activity. The service sector changed from a non-core activity in Sistan and Baluchistan, and Qazvin provinces to a core activity. However, in Hamedan province, it changed from a core activity to a non-core activity.
Rural development goals cannot be limited to agricultural and economic growth, and economic and social development needs to be balanced for fair income distribution and rapid creation of benefits from high levels of living. As a result, local planners should know the strength and weaknesses of the local economy. In addition, local economic development planners should know the status of the development of activities in the region and whether their distribution has a competitive advantage.
In this study, we aim to determine the employment status of major sectors and activity groups in Iranian rural areas from 2011 to 2016 and examine the entry and exit of the workforce. So the research questions are:
Which sectors have had the most negative and positive impact on the change in share and place of employment among the different economic sectors?
What was the status of different economic sectors at the level of the country's provinces during 2011-2016?
Has the activity in the agricultural sector faced positive growth from 2011 to 2016?
Methodology
This study used the change-share method to analyze the employment status of the main sectors and groups of economic activity in Iranian rural areas of the provinces from 2011 through 2016. Also, the spatial coefficient index was used for the labour force's entry and exit conditions. Is. The data used in this study is based on the statistics of the Iran Statistics Center.
Discussion and conclusion
According to Keynes, the government should intervene in the economy to achieve full employment. There is a direct relationship between the level of employment and the amount of production, which is related to the effective demand. The distribution of employees shows a growth of 226,590 people between 2011 and 2016. In the share of employment, the agricultural sector has decreased by about 0.1%, the industry sector's share was 2.6% with negative growth, and the service sector share increased by about 2.7%, which shows that the service sector has a high growth compared to other sectors. Regarding the Keynesian economic balance in employment, policymakers should change monetary policies, such as reducing the bank interest rate, and the assets, such as real estate, by imposing taxes on depreciated properties.
The research results show that the rural areas of 13 provinces in the Agriculture, Industry, and Services sectors had basic activities in 2015 in more than ten rural areas. Also, the relative growth of economic sectors in the whole reference economy or the effect of industrial composition (IS) shows that the share of employment in the agricultural sector decreased from 50.4% to 50.3%. In addition, the provinces of Khorasan Razavi, West Azerbaijan and Fars had the highest losses, and the province Alborz, Qom and Semnan had the least losses of employment in the agricultural sector. On the other hand, the least losses in the industry sector were in the provinces of East Azerbaijan, Khorasan Razavi and Fars, and the most employment losses were in Qom, Semnan and Ilam. The increase in service sector employment in Mazandaran, Fars and Tehran provinces was the highest, while Qom, South Khorasan and Semnan Provinces had the lowest increase.
South Khorasan province had the best performance in terms of service sector increase. For the agriculture sector, Hormozgan, Kerman and Khuzestan provinces and Hormozgan and Alborz provinces had good performances in the industry sector. This implies that with the increase in the productivity gap between the production and service sectors, the working population moves from the industry and agriculture sectors to the service sector. The main reason for the expansion of services is the growth of information technology because of its role in solving the unemployment problem and developing the country's economy.
According to the results, the agricultural and industrial sectors in the country's rural areas have no relative advantage in employment. The agricultural sector, considered a non-core activity in the rural areas of Khuzestan province in 2011, became a core activity in 2016. In Fars, it changed from a core activity to a non-core activity. The industry sector in Ilam, Bushehr and Lorestan provinces has changed from non-core to core activity and in Khuzestan province, from core to non-core activity. The service sector changed from a non-core activity in Sistan and Baluchistan, and Qazvin provinces to a core activity. However, in Hamedan province, it changed from a core activity to a non-core activity.
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