Showing 5 results for Risk
Dr. Roghayeh Jahdi,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (3-1921)
Abstract
Every year, wildfires burn large areas in the Hyrcanian forests, of northern Iran. This study aims to know the fire regime and assess fire risk in protected areas in Guilan province (256,488 hectar). Fire ignitions and frequency/frequency of burned areas from 1992 to 2022 were identified. Then fire behavior modeling was done to simulate burn probability and fire intensity (i.e. conditional flame length) using the FlamMap modeling system based on fire weather information, topography maps, local fuel models, and historical fire data. By combining maps of simulated burn probability and conditional flame length, a fire hazard map was prepared in the protected areas. According to the obtained results, 8% of the number of historical fires in the period occurred in the protected areas, although most of these fires have very small sizes and limited burned areas (including 0.1% of the burned areas in the province). Frequent fires (fire frequency more than 1) cover 60% of the protected areas, and 11% of these areas are highly likely to ignite. The changes in the burn probability and fire intensity reflect the diversity of fire activity in the protected areas, especially in the south-central parts, which catch the highest values of burn probability (more than 1) and conditional flame length (more than 3 meters). Finally, the fire hazard mapping showed that 77.7% and 4.8% of the protected areas are classified as very low and low fire hazards, respectively. On the other hand, 12.4% and 5.2% of these areas were placed in high and very high hazard classes, respectively. The quantitative results of this research provide scientific criteria for identifying high-priority areas in protected areas where management efforts can help reverse the increasing fire risk of protected forests.
Mrs Fatemeh Khodadadi, Dr Mojgan Entezari, Dr Farzaneh Sasanpour,
Volume 20, Issue 56 (3-2020)
Abstract
Today, in view of the growing population and population density in urban areas, especially in densely populated and susceptible cities, the need for an inclusive and comprehensive approach to natural disasters and disasters caused by their occurrence has become more evident . Focusing more than the size of the population in specific urban areas, lack of preventive planning and lack of readiness to deal with accidents such as earthquakes, is a very serious and important threat to citizens and the survival of the city. The capital city of Karaj, as one of the major cities in Iran, has a high risk of earthquakes due to the presence of several active faults inside and outside it. Accordingly, investigations of the seismic vulnerability of this city are one of the necessities of Karaj city management. Regarding this, the metropolis of karaj was selected as the study area. The method of research and analysis of information collected based on database-based methods using the ELECTRE FUZZY model and Criteria for building materials, number of floors, quality of buildings, population density, building density, area of parts, width of passageways, geology, distance from faults, distance from medical centers, distance from public space, distance from urban facilities and travel compatibility for research purposes Were used. The results indicate that 6, 8, 1, and 7 areas of Karaj municipality are vulnerable to earthquake, so that more than 70 percent of Karaj city is vulnerable to earthquake vulnerability on low and low floors and Only about 20% of the city of Karaj due to its proximity to the fault and the high density of population, construction and ... is in high and high risk areas. According to the principles of urban planning, the regulations of 2800 can cover earthquake damage in these areas.
Sajad Bazdar, Mohamadreza Zandmoghadam, Saeed Kamyabi,
Volume 20, Issue 59 (12-2020)
Abstract
Any imbalance in intra-city systems (urban spatial and urban areas) and external systems of the city (near and far-reaching districts of the city and region) causes its uncertainty and instability. As a result, estimating the risk and assessing the seismic vulnerability of a city is also considered as a major issue. The present study, with the developmental-applied and combination of field and library methodology and using the VIKOR method, has studied the issue in Ilam province. The results show that the cities of the province in terms of demographic density, literacy, etc. Each of them has an effective role in vulnerability, they can be effective in the damage caused by the earthquake. VIKOR and GIS models show that the regions in which these indicators are higher than other areas (surplus of defined standard) is not in the benefit of the region and if this surplus is in the benefit of the region. Statistically, the average VIKOR score was 0.125%. Though this amount expresses the situation inappropriately. But there are areas where VIKOR levels are much smaller than the average. Which includes the Dehloran, Ivan and Maleshahi cities
Ehsan Arkani, Hossein Hatami Nejad, Soheil Qare,
Volume 20, Issue 59 (12-2020)
Abstract
Today, the vulnerability of cities, especially the old and worn-out tissues to earthquakes, has become a global issue for experts in various fields. This situation has become more acute in countries with dangerous natural structures, including Iran, in recent decades. Exhausted urban tissues, as the main boiling point of a city, reflect the identity of that city, and are vulnerable to natural disasters, especially unstable earthquakes. This study was conducted with the aim of identifying and prioritizing the factors affecting the increase of earthquake risk in worn-out urban areas. The present study is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of analytical method based on multi-criteria approach. Library and field methods were used to gather information. The statistical population of the study consisted of experts and specialists in the field of urban planning, and the sample size was estimated at 30 people. In order to achieve the goals considered in this study, fuzzy Delphi technique and BMW model were used. The results of fuzzy Delphi technique confirmed the identified factors and subscales. The results of the BMW model indicated that among the identified factors, natural factors with a final score of 0.321 were in the first place, housing quality factor with a final score of 0.287 in the second place, distance from special uses with a final score of 255. 0.0 is in the third place and the demographic and economic factor with the final score of 0.137 is in the fourth place.
Mr Fazllollah Karimi Ghotbabadi, Dr Ali Zangiabadi,
Volume 25, Issue 77 (6-2025)
Abstract
Earthquake resilience, defined as the capacity of societies—including social, economic, institutional, geographical, and other dimensions—to withstand and recover from seismic events, is a critical issue that demands attention across various societal contexts. It is essential to acknowledge that attitudes toward resilience and the analytical frameworks employed to assess it significantly influence both the understanding of underlying causes of resilience and the formulation of policies aimed at risk reduction and management. The objective of this study is to evaluate and rank the earthquake resilience of new urban developments within the Isfahan Metropolitan area through the utilization of a combined index. Given the nature of the subject matter, the research adopts a descriptive-analytical approach. The study's statistical population comprises six new urban developments: Shahin Shahr, Majlesi, Sepahan Shahr, Foolad Shahr, Baharestan, and Shahid Keshvari. This research is characterized as applied in nature, and information for the literature review was gathered through library research methods. According to the results derived from the Potentially Optimal Solutions Evaluation Technique (POSET) analysis, the rankings of the urban developments based on the combined index of resilience to earthquake risk are as follows: Majlesi (3), Baharestan (6), Foolad Shahr (7), Sepahan Shahr (8), Shahin Shahr (11), and Shahid Keshvari (14). Consequently, to mitigate the adverse effects of earthquakes on communities, it is imperative to consider the unique capacities of each urban development, thereby reducing potential human and financial losses resulting from such events.
