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In geopolitics literature, small and low-endowment states that compound lesser geopolitical potentiality and weight are considered as the trivial scale agents in comparison with the first and second level powers. These agents, in spite of the local geopolitical codes but sometimes can effect on the regional and even global events of geopolitics. The Caucasian region, historically, have had a field for appearance and exposition of sub-khans that their overall actions and agencies effected the events of the region and due to its cultural proximities to Iran, have effected in Iran’s geopolitical functions in national scale. The present paper with descriptive-analytical method, have studied historical role of the local agencies in geopolitical events of the Caucasia and their impression on the great scale events. Secondly, the paper has studied the quality of the chosen countries of the region in current circumstances of the global system. Results indicate that the Caucasian countries act according to their historical legacy as a small-scale agents among the great scale actors.

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از مسائل مهم حاکم بر مدیریت و برنامه­ریزی شهرهای ما، نگرش فرم محور است؛ یعنی می خواهند مسائل شهرها را عمدتاً از طریق تغییرات کالبدی حل کنند و در مطالعات خود بر ویژگی های فیزیکی تاکید دارند. در مقابل این نگرش، دیدگاه فرایند محور قرار دارد که سعی می کند فرایندها را بیشتر مورد تحلیل قرار دهد زیرا این فرایندها هستند که فرم­ ها را به وجود می ­آورند. هدف پژوهش این است که بر روی فرایندها و علل در محلات تاریخی شهر اصفهان تاکید شود و نگرش فرایند محور به عنوان حلقه مفقوده برنامه­ریزی شهرهای ما مورد توجه ویژه خواهد بود. پژوهش حاضر به روش ترکیبی انجام شده است تا از این طریق از مزایای هر دو روش کیفی و کمی بهره گیریم. در روش تحقیق کیفی، داده ­ها از روش­های مصاحبه، مشاهده و مطالعات کتابخانه ­ای جمع­آوری شده است و در روش تحقیق کمی از آزمون تی  تک نمونه­ای استفاده شده است. نتایج پژوهش نشان می­ دهد فرایندهای جغرافیایی موثر در شکل­ گیری فرم­ها در محلات تاریخی شهر اصفهان عبارتند از: «وجود حیاط مرکزی در مساکن»، «امکان  ارتباط با عناصر طبیعی مانند درخت، آب و نور طبیعی»، «امکان تماشای آیات الهی مانند آسمان، خورشید، ماه و ستارگان»، «اهمیت منابع آبی مانند زاینده­ رود، قنات و مادی­ ها در آفرینش فضاها»، «هماهنگی با اقلیم گرم و خشک»، «اهمیت باغ های خصوصی و خانگی» و «رعایت حریم عناصر طبیعی مانند حریم چاه، قنات، مادی و غیره». از میان  فرایندهای مورد مطالعه نیز «اهمیت منابع آبی مانند زاینده ­رود، قنات و مادی­ ها در آفرینش فضاها» با میانگین 4 بیشترین میانگین را به خود اختصاص داده و مهم ­ترین فرایند موثر در شکل­ گیری فرم­ ها در محلات تاریخی شهر اصفهان می­ باشد.
 

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Shia political Islam, centered around Iran, is a complex and dynamic phenomenon that has undergone numerous transformations in recent decades. Understanding the future trends of this intellectual and political movement is of great importance to analysts, politicians, and the general public. This article employs a futures studies approach to examine the trends of Shia political Islam within Iran's political geography. This foresight approach allows us to look beyond the current situation and outline various scenarios for the future of politics and society in Iran. The methodology of this research is descriptive-analytical, utilizing library and documentary sources, including qualitative and quantitative analysis of historical data, expert interviews, and content analysis of media and religious texts. The research findings indicate that Shia political Islam in Iran's geography is undergoing a period of transformation, influenced by various factors such as demographic changes, social and economic developments, and geopolitical shifts. Several potential scenarios for the future of Shia political Islam in Iran's political geography are presented, including: the Continuity Scenario, the Reform Scenario, the Radicalism Scenario, and the Secularism Scenario. Considering these scenarios, the analysis of probable trends and events in the scenarios, and political and security developments with a view to challenges and opportunities in the Middle East region, the Islamic Republic of Iran, adhering to the Continuity Scenario along with the Reform Scenario, aims to strengthen republicanism (religious democracy) while emphasizing the preservation of independence and indigenous Islamic identity in the region, and to have a more prominent presence in the Middle East.
 

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The country of Iran, with its geopolitical foundations, which is influenced by its geography, has always been the focus of the countries of the world, especially the world powers, throughout history. The use of this capacity and conditions for the economic prosperity of the country depended on the ability of the statesmen and the type and structure of the government systems in formulating foreign policy, and how effective they were in changing the social environment and the way of economic livelihood of the people. In a fundamental and theoretical way, this thesis has analyzed the formulation and presentation of the national strategy of the Islamic Republic of Iran based on its geopolitical characteristics.
The results of this research show that the spirit that governs it according to the structure it entails (statehood), is economic regardless of geographical and geopolitical infrastructure, and this field of foreign policy has not only failed to achieve success, but is also passive. And it has become introspective and stopped from being effective and dynamic. While looking at Iran's geopolitical and geographical foundations, we find that its geopolitical position does not have a global effect and is not below the regional level.

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Drought is one of the most destructive natural disasters in human societies that cause irreparable impacts on agriculture, environment, society and economics. So, awareness of occurrence of droughts can be effective in reducing losses. In this study, in order to modeling and forecasting drought severity in a 37 year time period (1971-2007) in 21 meteorological stations, located in the cold semi-arid region of north-west Iran, artificial neural networks was used. The input data was annual rainfall data and annual drought precipitation index for all stations that 80% of the data (1971-2000) used for training the network and other 20% (2001-2007) used for testing it and in the next step drought severity predicted for the years 2008 to 2012 by the trained algorithm without using actual and existed data in this period. The appropriate structure for the network, based on Multi Layer Perceptron with three hidden layer, Back Propagation algorithm, Sigmoid transfer function and 10 neurons in middle layer. The results show that the artificial neural networks are well able to predict the non-linear relationship between rainfall and drought as it can simulate drought precipitation index values largely consistent with the real values with more than 97% regression and less than 5% error. So, drought can be predicted by this method in future and also it is useful in water resources management, drought management and climate change. 

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Global warming and the meaningful relationship between temperature and precipitation changes over different areas of the earth with temperature increment of the earth, are considered as the most important patterns of this century’s climate changes. Today, there is debate over climate change and global temperatures increasing. Damaging effects of this phenomenon on the planet is one of the most challenging issues in global scale. Because of this, the research ahead is done for the detection of global warming on maximum temperatures, monthly and periodic (hot and cold) as well. For this study, two groups of data, temperature data of 17 synoptic stations and corresponding amounts of data in global temperature anomalies were figured out over 60 years period of time (1951 to 2010). Goals, the Pearson correlation method for detecting relationships between data's, linear and polynomial regression for trend analysis time series data , To illustrate the correlation between the spatial distribution of temperature data with global warming stations nationwide Geostatistical model Finally, non-parametric test for detecting significant temperature change Man - Kendall were used. According to the results impact of global warming on the maximum temperature in the cold months like January, December and November should be much lower, and the highest in spring and summer season in the southern stations such as Abadan, Ahwaz and Shiraz seen. The above process is also evident in periods of hot and cold temperatures and the influence of the stations temperature of the warm period of global warming were higher than cold period and represent an increase in the temperature of the warm period of years. In between, the number of stations as well as Anzali, Urmia and Khorramabad stations in some months had the opposite influence of global warming and seen drop in the maximum temperatures of them. It is also observed in the results obtained from the analysis period. Station's maximum temperature trend change is represents significant in the summer month. Changes trend in the months of July, August and September, is significant that the process is more pronounced in the southern stations. Significant analysis trend changes have been taken in periods (cold and hot) in studied stations indicative of its significance in warm period.

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Variation of snow cover area (SCA) in small to large scale catchment can be studied using MODIS snow products on daily to montly time step since the year 2000. However, one of the major problems in applying the MODIS snow products is cloud obscuration which limits the utilization of these products. In the current study, variation of SCA was investigated in Karoun basin, western part of Iran, using MODIS 8-day snow cover product (MOD10A2). More over in order to overcome the cloud barrier in application of snow cover products, a simultaneous employment of the images from both MODIS optical sensor and AMSR-E microwave sensor was recommended. Meeting our target, the combination of MODIS and AMSR-E daily images was exercised to accomplish snow cover area in daily interval and afterwards, a comparison was made between the result and those which had been obtained by the sole utilization of either of them while the weather had been either cloudy and not been overcast. Validation of snow cover gained by combined images was additionally compared with the discharge of one of the catchments existing in Karoun basin. The results demonstrate that regardless of the fact that microwave data, featuring a coarse spatial resolution, can penetrate the cloud cover, on average, AMSR-E images approximately show 16% more snow cover in comparison to MODIS images. The results also illustrate that the correlation existing between snow cover rate of AMSR-E and MODIS images during cloudless days, the difference of average snow cover area decreases from 16% to 5%. Moreover, the upshot of validation by the exercise of daily discharge data indicates that by possessing a correlation coefficient of 0.66, the correlation of snow cover and discharge in combined images features a higher accuracy in comparison to MODIS images with a correlation coefficient of 0.55.

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  Climate control centers in each area are diverse and understanding how they relate to the atmospheric components of the Earth's surface contribute to prediction of climate fluctuations.   In this study, by using Pearson's correlation and multivariate regression in a thirty-year period (1961-2010), the relationship between widespread rainfall anomalies in entire of Iran west with temperature and pressure of atmospheric centers in East and West of Mediterranean Sea in 5 atmospheric levels (SLP, 850, 500 and 300 Hpa) were analyzed and modeled. Based on the results, the correlation of atmospheric control centers in the East and West Mediterranean Sea with anomalies of rainfall in West of Iran is inverse and meaningful in 95% level. In this study, statistical indicators such as temperature differences and standardized  pressure between West and East Mediterranean sea were identified as the most important indicators in relation to changes of rainfall in the study area.   Based on the designed indicators, whenever indicators DT and DH is positive, this means higher temperature and higher atmospheric standardized pressure in the Western parts of Mediterranean sea in compare with its East and therefore the wet spells (Monthly) occur in the study area, and If the above mentioned index is negative, means that the occurrence of drought in West Iran. As for the indicators introduced for lower levels of the atmosphere, especially in the case of temperature, meaningful strong and direct correlation is seen with rainfall abnormalities in entire West of Iran. Modeling provided some indicator for Mediterranean region using multivariate regression that they showed a relatively strong correlation in this regard of the selected components that include the pressure difference in sea level, the temperature difference in 925 and 850 hPa level in the West (Compared to its East) Mediterranean sea. Also check the regression model using real data confirm the accuracy of the relative performance of the model.  

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Morphotectonic is one of the new reconition methods of tectonic movements and earthquakes knowledge. Study and measurement of landscapes and forms which made by active tectonics are important objects in morphology science. Active tectonic movements have recorded in the morphology of rivers, drainages, alluvial fans and mountain fronts in a region. Research area is located between 55° 30' -57° 00' E and 32° 00' -33° 00' N in Central Iran structural zone. In this paper, we have studied geological map of Abdoughi and processed satellite images, digital elevation model (DEM), geomorphic and morphotectonic indices along the main faults. Also tectonic activities were measured in this area. The results of mountain- front sinuosity (Smf), ratio of valley-floor width to valley height (Vf) and ratio of valley width to valley height (V) indicate respectively: 1/15, 0/94 and 9/88 values. The displacement of the rivers, alluvial fans and triangular facets indicate tectonic activity during Quaternary along the faults. The morphotectonic evidences and seismicity data show which Abdoughi area is an active region.

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This study tries to identify, classify, and analyze synoptic cold wave in North West region of Iran. This study applies standardized (z scores) index of Minimum Temperature in the period of 1951-2010.as such cold waves were classified based on the intensity of occurance. Out of occured cold wave in North West of the coldest identified wave pertaingt each class for synoptic analyzes were selected. This study suggests that the prevailing pressure pattern during the relevant wave indicates high pressure over the earth surface as well as deep trough in upper layer. From the continuing cold standpoint, the role of changing position from pavallel wind in to meridional corresponel to blocking is very offective. Blocking in turn leads to reduction in speed of cold air masses which are originating from higher latitude. They were assouclated with cold waves. More precipitation as so ciated with higher latitude as well as low speed flows will lead to strong and continious waves.

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An AO is an example of teleconnection pattern in the northern hemisphere’s winter. In this study, the effect of AO on the monthly minimum temperatures in the North-East region of Iran is investigated. The required statistics, including statistics monthly minimum temperatures for 17 synoptic stations of the under study area was provided from Iran Meteorological Organization’s (IRMO). Pearson correlation analysis as the main method used in this study Show an inverse relationship between minimum temperatures and most selected stations and AO index.The results of this study shows that there is a significant relationship between the AO teleconnection pattern and minimum temperatures of north-east of Iran during the cold season of the year. This shows decrease of temperature in positive phase of the AO and rise of temperature is negative phase. In terms of time correlation coefficients were calculated showed a significant negative correlation between the temperature of stations and the AO Among the studied stations, the relationship between the minimum and average monthly temperatures in Birjand and Bojnoord station more than other stations, affected by the AO pattern, has been fluctuated and significant correlation coefficients between the minimum and average temperature of Birjand and Bojnoord Stations with AO has been calculated. The effect of Arctic oscillation on mean temperature of the studied area, north-east of Iran, during the three months, January to march, and ,two months, January to February, is very distinctive against any other periods of time.

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In Iran the issue of occurring natural disasters, particularly mesoscale convective systems. They are important on one hand, because of their increasing intimidations and causing damages and on the other hand, because of their increasing abundance, time of duration, and happening. Therefore life cycle, constituton condition and mesoscale convective systems features in west of Iran using satellite and extention area index and thresholds of brightness temperature 221 and 243 K have been studied. After their statistic analysis, based on mesoscale convective system importance, life and daily cycle, behavior parameters, and synoptic conditions of this system life cycle were analysed. Most of the systems have been formed in southeastern Iraq and in western Zagros hillsides. Wile puberty stages (the maturity) and their expandings were increased with the height increase; in turn, declining of the systems began by passing Zagros chain mountains. The system extention area at the system life cycle starting increases with a smooth process; whereas the reduction process of the system extention area at the declining stage was severe and sudden.

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The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of global warming on where the slope changes when the monthly temperature in Iranian territory over the coming decades (2050-2015). The simulated temperature dynamic model EH5OM subset Hybrid Models atmospheric circulations (GCM) selection and data model of the Center for Theoretical Physics Salam (Italy) were derived from emission scenarios A1B scenario was chosen given the scenario of 2100 -2001 found that from 2050 to 2015 were used in this study data is then output the data in the fourth edition of the regional climate model (RegCM4) Linux environment was fine scale output data Downscaling model with dimensions of 27/0 * 27 / Degrees latitude is where the dimensions of 30 x 30 km area of ​​approximately cover the average temperature of the matrix deals 13140 2140 * was extracted. Finally, the slope of the average monthly temperature during the period under study by Mann-Kendall slope age and matrix computation in MATLAB software 13140 * 12 respectively. Results show rising temperatures in March and April to June, more than 90% of the country, that it will be spring's warmer. Increasing the temperature in the winter months and spring mountainous parts of the western half of the country is warming the cold regions of Iran. Temperature negative trend in October and November in the northern part of the eastern half of the region's countries could be indicative of colder temperatures in the northern West.

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The purpose of this study is predicting climate changes and investigating the effect of probable climate change on the growing degree-days in the northwest of Iran. For this purpose the climatic data of seven synoptic stations during a 25 years period (1985-2009) was collected including Oroomieh, Tabriz, Zanjan, Sanandaj, Ghazvin, Kermanshah, and Hamedan were used as the base period and thus temperature variations periods (2030-2011 and 2065-2046) through HadCM3 model was simulated. For the little power of temporal and spatial distinction of this model, its outputs were downscaled using LARS-WG software and presented under Emission Scenarios including A1B (moderate scenario), A2 (maximum or pessimistic scenario), and B1 (minimum or optimistic scenario). Calibration, verification and Performance Model with the rate of the adaption of observed data and the simulated measures through statistics , RMSE and MAE were analyzed. Finally, using the simulated temperature growing degree-day was calculated and compared under 4 Base temperature including 0°,5°,10°, and 15° centigrade in the basic span (1985-2009) and future span (2011-2030 and 2046-2065). The results of simulation show that temperature change in north-west areas under all three A1B, A2, and B1 scenario are increasing in the future, but the differences among these three scenarios in each period is inconsiderable. In total the most temperature increasing was detected as 0/7 centigrade in A2 scenario for 2011-2030 period and 2/3 centigrade under A1B scenario for 2046-2065 period. Generally with the temperature increasing, the amounts of growing degree-day without exception increases in review periods and under the four Base temperature. Under studied scenarios, the Bases temperature of 0° centigrade had the most and 15° centigrade had the least impressibility from climate changes, so that the most increasing in calculated degree-day measures under 0° and 15° centigrade bases in the first period to the basic scenario (1985-2009) respectively was simulated as 207/4 and 120/6 degree-day under A2 scenario and for the second period to the 752/5 and 463/5 degree-day under A1B scenario.