Showing 4 results for Futures Studies
Dr Mahdi Elmi, , , ,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (3-2007)
Abstract
Abstract Due to its special geopolitical location at the crossroads of Asia, Europe, and the Middle East, Turkey is considered a key player in the future developments of West Asia. However, in the existing literature, most studies are limited to describing Ankara's foreign policy and less to analyzing the future of geopolitical developments using systematic futures research approaches. This study, relying on the theoretical framework of geopolitical realism in interaction with the scenario-based futures research approach, seeks to fill this gap. The research method is mixed and descriptive-analytical, and data was collected through semi-structured interviews with 15 experts on Turkish issues and also through the analysis of documentary sources. The Delphi method was used to identify the main drivers and uncertainties, and then future scenarios were drawn using the perspective analysis model and cross-sectional analysis. The findings show that the geopolitical future of Greater Anatolia will be shaped by seven main scenarios, the most important of which are: intensification of hydropolitical competition between Turkey, Iraq, and Syria; increasing Turkey's role in the South Caucasus in light of convergence with the Republic of Azerbaijan; continued divergence in Ankara's relations with Tehran, especially in the areas of energy, Kurdish issues, and the corridor. The results show that Turkey's foreign policy in the face of these scenarios will be mainly based on three axes: developing the defense industry and increasing strategic depth, utilizing transit and energy capacities to become the region's geoeconomic crossroads, and continuing the neo-Ottoman policy with the aim of gaining regional hegemony. Therefore, the present study, while providing a systematic picture of possible futures, can help to more accurately understand the opportunities and challenges facing Turkey's neighboring countries in the Anatolian Plateau and serve as a basis for designing more realistic strategies in the field of foreign policy and regional security.
Haniyeh Asadzadeh, Tajaldin Karami, Farzaneh Sasanpour, Ali Shamaie,
Volume 25, Issue 78 (10-2025)
Abstract
In present society, structural transformations within the economy, rapid advancements in science and technology, constraints on financial and human resources, the interdependence of nations, global competition, and the increasing trend toward globalization necessitate a more profound understanding of "change" and the "future" for governments, businesses, organizations, and individuals. Futures studies play a critical role in assisting policymakers and planners in the development of effective programs by enhancing communication, coordination, and collaboration among organizations and institutions. This research is applied in its objectives, descriptive-analytical in its nature and methodology, and exploratory in its approach to scenario writing. Data were collected through both documentary and field methods. In the field method, a researcher-constructed questionnaire in the form of a cross-impact matrix was administered to experts for scoring the factors. Utilizing the Delphi method, 30 experts were selected, and questionnaires were distributed non-randomly through convenience sampling. The data were analyzed using MICMAC and MORPHOL software. The findings indicate that the urban-regional system of Tehran is in an unstable state. Ten key drivers were identified as influential in the development of the Tehran metropolitan area: dominant ideology, integrated management, expansion of information and communication technology infrastructure, e-commerce, enhancement of economic competitiveness, economic branding, electronic management systems, political transparency, facilitation of multinational companies' entry, and the expansion of urban diplomacy. Ultimately, the scenarios for the future development of the Tehran metropolitan area revealed eight potential outcomes. The first scenario, characterized by nine pessimistic assumptions and one intermediate assumption, was identified as having the highest probability of occurrence.
Salman Kazemian Souraki , Fereshteh Nasrollahi, Amin Deilami Moazzi,
Volume 25, Issue 79 (1-2026)
Abstract
Shia political Islam, centered around Iran, is a complex and dynamic phenomenon that has undergone numerous transformations in recent decades. Understanding the future trends of this intellectual and political movement is of great importance to analysts, politicians, and the general public. This article employs a futures studies approach to examine the trends of Shia political Islam within Iran's political geography. This foresight approach allows us to look beyond the current situation and outline various scenarios for the future of politics and society in Iran. The methodology of this research is descriptive-analytical, utilizing library and documentary sources, including qualitative and quantitative analysis of historical data, expert interviews, and content analysis of media and religious texts. The research findings indicate that Shia political Islam in Iran's geography is undergoing a period of transformation, influenced by various factors such as demographic changes, social and economic developments, and geopolitical shifts. Several potential scenarios for the future of Shia political Islam in Iran's political geography are presented, including: the Continuity Scenario, the Reform Scenario, the Radicalism Scenario, and the Secularism Scenario. Considering these scenarios, the analysis of probable trends and events in the scenarios, and political and security developments with a view to challenges and opportunities in the Middle East region, the Islamic Republic of Iran, adhering to the Continuity Scenario along with the Reform Scenario, aims to strengthen republicanism (religious democracy) while emphasizing the preservation of independence and indigenous Islamic identity in the region, and to have a more prominent presence in the Middle East.
Dr Mohsen Ahadnejad Reveshty, Dr Hossein Tahmasbi Moghadam, Dr Ameneh Alibakhshi,
Volume 26, Issue 81 (6-2026)
Abstract
Land use planning is one of the essential aspects of sustainable urban development, aiming to balance land use in urban areas. This study seeks to identify the factors influencing the realizability of service land uses in Zanjan city through a futures studies approach. Data collection employed a combination of library and field methods. In the field phase, the Delphi method was used, engaging 35 experts in urban planning, urban management, and housing, who assessed key factors across two rounds of questionnaires.
A total of 36 factors were identified across five dimensions: legal, economic, socio-cultural, physical-spatial, and managerial. The data were analyzed using MICMAC software. The results indicated that "urban land use laws and regulations" and "service location and spatial distribution" scored the highest direct influence values (85 and 82, respectively), playing the most significant roles in realizing service land uses. Key barriers identified include weak institutional coordination, inappropriate physical development policies, and lack of effective citizen participation. Cross-impact matrix analysis revealed a 55.32% fill rate, indicating a system of interdependent and mutually influential factors that contribute to the instability of service land use realizability. The study proposed solutions to improve the current situation, including: Revising urban laws and regulations, Strengthening institutional coordination among relevant bodies, Utilizing modern technologies such as GIS for proper service location planning, and Enhancing citizen participation culture in urban planning. The findings not only identified key influential factors but also emphasized the importance of considering multidimensional and sustainable aspects in service land use planning. This research provides a foundation for sustainable development and spatial justice in Zanjan city.
