Mr Mohsen Kameli, Hamidreza Azemati,
Volume 21, Issue 61 (6-2021)
Abstract
Human behaviors and activities of individuals are created in urban spaces, and cultural and social relationships are formed in these spaces. Considering the main source of insecurity among citizens in the cities and the important factors such as the physical form of the city, urban structures and the shape of buildings in this case, the purpose of the study is to measure the effect of the sense of belonging to the place in increasing the level of social security of citizens City of Qom. The research method is descriptive-analytic, and the questionnaire has been used to collect the field studies. The results of the research indicate that spatial relationships and spatial arrangements in the neighborhood environment with the control and social abnormalities along with the physical and physical environment have a significant correlation. Similarly, the type of form and the size of space, which is another component of the sense of belonging to the place, has a solidarity with social abnormalities and freedom of movement. The texture and decorations of the neighborhood space have a correlation with physical and physical environment. Among them, the most correlation between dimensions of sense of belonging to place and social security is related to the freedom of movement component with the form type and space size of 0.980.
Ms Elahe Kavoosi, Dr Jamal Mohammadi,
Volume 21, Issue 61 (6-2021)
Abstract
Our country Iran is not far from the global changes of cities. One of these changes is the smart mobility that is Undeniable and inevitablein urban management today. Especially in metropolises, which are facing increasing population and various economic, social and environmental problems. In fact, metropolises always have many problems, most importantly transportation. Shiraz, as one of the major cities and one of the major cities of the country, has a special place. This position is of different cultural, historical, political and other aspects. Its population growth rate has also been steadily increasing due to its location. This trend of population growth over the past few decades has created problems and obstacles for sustainable and desirable management, most notably problems in the transportation sector. The same trend illustrates the need to emphasize smart systems in this city. Therefore, in this study, it is attempted to investigate and analyze Smart Urban Mobility and Social Sustainability for Shiraz. The research method is descriptive-analytical and based on documentary and origin studies. The results show that the mobility and displacement variables are in poor condition based on different dimensions of access, sustainable transport as well as ICT. Different indices of each of these dimensions point to the same issue, as its level of evaluation (significance level less than 0.05 and average lower than the criterion) points to their undesirability from the point of view citizens. The study of the impact of smart mobility indicators on Social Sustainability also shows that smart mobility indicators account for 23% of the total variance of Social Sustainability. On this basis, it should be noted that the mobility variable does not have an appropriate position in Shiraz, and this has not only affected its development process in recent decades, but also poses many challenges for its future development. The growing trend of the population and on the other hand the various social and cultural features as well as tourism are evolving in such a way that it requires a major focus on a systematic transportation based on smart city approach.
Dr Mandana Habibi, Dr Hosein Mojtabazadeh,
Volume 21, Issue 61 (6-2021)
Abstract
A review of the history of the Islamic period reveals that concepts such as Islamic values and principles have always been one of the foundations of Islamic cities. This has made the Islamic city a space for the development of other Islamic fundamental concepts and principles. However, with the emergence of modern thinking and the emergence of numerous movements, we have seen that many of these are distorted. considering the historical background, values and factors present, district 20 in Tehran, is of no exception. In this regard, the purpose of this study is to investigate the mechanisms of how each of the factors of the Islamic city influence the perception of the inhabitants of this historical district of Tehran. To achieve this goal, a conceptual model of the research was first developed using the literature as well as the research context in which the three main physical, social and validity dimensions were considered for Islamic urban planning. Subsequently, using a questionnaire survey and its analysis by structural equation modeling, the effect of each of these factors on their indicators was put forth as the research findings. The results of the analysis indicate that the "validity" factors have the most impact on people's perception of the Islamic city, while the "social and civil" and "physical" factors are less influential.
Dr Foroogh Khazaee Nezhad, Sakine Beigi,
Volume 21, Issue 61 (6-2021)
Abstract
Today, most of the world's population lives in cities, and urbanization, as the dominant phenomenon of human life, has continued to grow. But in recent years, the lives of city dwellers have faced many problems. In recent years, urban experts are looking for a solution for these problems, in which different theories, views, approaches, and models have been proposed. One of the most important approaches is the livability that is related to sustainable development. In this study, the relationship between different indicators of livability and its nature is explained. The central part of Bojnourd city has been selected as the case study. This research is a practical, desk and field study. Structural Equation Modeling with partial least squares approach and related software were used for data analysis. The results of the research showed that although there is a significant relationship between most of the indicators studied in this study and the viability, the local participation, educational facilities, and leisure facilities have had the greatest impact on livability. It was also found that there is a significant statistical relationship between residence time and identity (P = 0.01) and duration of residence and individual participation (P = 0.08) (90% confidence level).
Mr Jamaleddin Honarvar,
Volume 21, Issue 61 (6-2021)
Abstract
Today, the process of developing and constructing educational spaces tends to be more inclined to physical dimensions and is painted against human beings and their characteristics. The result is a disconnect between the students' relationship with the schools in particular and the educational environment in general. As such, they consider their students to be less part of the high school and feel less attached to it. The purpose of this study is to focus on designers 'view of the semantic levels of the school environment that can influence students' sense of place. The research method was descriptive, analytical and survey using spss software and Lisrel 8.8. This study uses the confirmatory factor analysis technique to determine whether the number of factors and loads of variables measured on these factors are consistent with what is specified in the theory. According to the results of confirmatory factor analysis, the standardized coefficients are acceptable and relatively large. Through the SEM structural model, it was estimated that the highest correlation and consistency between subjective factor with factor loadings of 0.76 and physical component rank second. With a factor load of 0.63 and finally the educational component with a standard coefficient of 0.58 establishes and promotes a sense of belonging in high schools. At the end of the conceptual model the research was mapped using structural equation modeling and by regression it was concluded that subjective, physical and educational components predict 43% of the variance in sense of belonging in Tehran high schools.
Hamid Salehi, Muhammad Motamedi, Ezatollah Mafi,
Volume 21, Issue 61 (6-2021)
Abstract
The basis of climatic data is measurements taken at a predetermined chronological order at air monitoring stations, so all measured values of climatic elements can only be attributed to the point of measurement. Therefore, different interpolation methods can help a lot in estimating climate data in different places. The study area in this study is northeastern Iran, including the provinces of Khorasan Razavi and North Khorasan, and monthly summer temperature data were used for 21 synoptic and evaporative stations in the northeast belonging to the Meteorological Organization and the Ministry of Energy with appropriate distribution. The statistical period of 21 years (1997-1997) was considered as a common statistical period for all stations. Then, in order to compare the interpolation methods, several different methods, including ordinary kriging, spline, inverse squares and Thyssen were used by ARCGIS software. Comparing the deviations of the estimates from the measured data was evaluated by cross-validation. Then, in order to check the hypothesis of normality of the calculated errors in each interpolation method, the test thigh test was used and finally, to evaluate the best interpolation method, AHP method and Expert Choice software were used. The results showed that based on the root mean square error (RMSE) criterion, Thyssen, Kriging, inverse distance and spline methods were located, respectively. Based on the absolute maximum error criterion (MAE), the kriging method estimates the summer temperature better than other methods. According to the MBE standard, the kriging method is better than other methods and can be used for temperature interpolation. According to the set coefficients, the calculated compatibility rate is 0.03, which indicates the high accuracy of the selection of weights.
Dr Tala Hussein, Dr Amir Mahmoudzadeh, Dr Keramatollah Ziyari,
Volume 21, Issue 61 (6-2021)
Abstract
Tehran metropolitan authorities have always tried to develop the most efficient model for managing Tehran metropolitan affairs. Currently, the Tehran city management model is the council-city model, according to which people elect the members of the city council by direct vote, and the Tehran City Council elects the mayor. Over the past years, and considering that the institutions and organizations in charge of managing and providing urban services have in some cases suffered from parallel work or even inconsistencies in tasks, there is a need to develop a model for integrated urban management. In this article, descriptive-analytical method has been used. This article is practical in terms of the purpose of the study. The purpose of this article is to achieve a model for integrated management of Tehran metropolis. The statistical population of this study is Tehran urban management experts for which 34 people were selected as a sample. The data collection tools of this research are interviews and questionnaires and the data have been analyzed using paired comparison and TOPSIS methods. As a result of this research, according to the identified challenges and using TOPSIS method, the efficiency of the developed research model (with the proposed name of service desk) compared to the current model of Tehran urban management has been confirmed. Also, the most important result obtained from comparative studies is that in the studied metropolises, all matters of governance and urban management are always under the command of one institution and parallel work has been avoided, which should also be considered in Tehran.
Mitra Ghorbi, Mrs Maryam Naghavi, Dr Hamid Mohammadi,
Volume 21, Issue 62 (9-2021)
Abstract
Interactions and sometimes contradictions in economic and cultural priorities which happen due to social transformations, changes in paradigms and changes in economic – political systems led to changes in urban regeneration concept. The role of culture in urban regeneration had significant changes comparing to other factors; and the cultural focuses became the main approach in urban regeneration in recent decades. The quality of built environment and level of residents’ satisfaction plays an important role in regeneration policies of target areas as well. This study investigates the impact of environment quality variables (environmental, physical, economic and social) on level of residents’ satisfaction in cultural neighborhoods of Kerman, with the goal of improving the regeneration process.The method of this research is applied-developmental in terms of the aim, and descriptive and causal comparative in terms of the nature. This study uses questionnaire as a tool for collecting data. The study sample size is 513 and the data were analyzed by SPSS and AMOS softwares. The results demonstrate a significant direct relationship between economic and physical variables as well as social variables and consequently the same relationship between economic and the sense of satisfaction. The results also indicate a significant inverse relationship between environmental variables, which are effective on sense of satisfaction, and economic variables. The results of structural equation modeling (SEM) show that improvement in the condition of economic, physical and environmental variables, will improve condition of social variables and the sense of satisfaction in the studied neighborhoods. Furthermore, analysis showed that economic variables have more effect on social variables and eventually on the sense of satisfaction as compared to physical and environmental variables. Therefore, the negative effects of each four aforementioned factors could be decreased in the studied neighborhood through planning and application of culture-led regeneration policies. Accordingly the increase in the sense of satisfaction would improve the revitalization and sustainability in these neighborhoods.
Mohammad Ajza Shokouhi, Shirin Sabaghi Abkooh, Forough Kazaei Nejad,
Volume 21, Issue 62 (9-2021)
Abstract
A new urbanism theory has emerged in recent decades in response to numerous urban problems of the twentieth century, with the goal of creating vibrant, compact, diverse and desirable cities in terms of work, walking, life, and transportation options. In view of the widespread acceptance of this theory among the Iranian researchers, the aim of this study is to assess the sustainability of organic and planned neighborhoods in Mashhad based on the spatial-physical indexes of new urbanism. In this regard, two neighborhoods, RahAhan (organic neighborhood) and the second phase of Rezashahr (planned neighborhood) were selected. This research method is descriptive- analytical and the mixed model of AHP and GIS has been used to assess the stability of two neighborhoods. Accordingly, the Sustainability Measurement Model was used as a hierarchy in the form of 7 physical-space indicators (type of road, pedestrian width, land use, area of lots, access to the center of the neighborhood, number of floors and access to public transport) . Tthe research results show that in Rezashhar, 68.43% of neighborhood area has moderate to high stability and 31.57% of the total of the neighborhood area is the lack of stability, and in RahAhan, 70.84% of the total of the neighborhood has moderate to high stability and 29.16% of the total of the neighborhood is lack of stability. Therefore, according to the spatial indicators of the new urbanism, the neighborhood of Reza Shahr is more unsustainable than the old neighborhood of Rah Ahan. Therefore, this study shows the richness of traditional Iranian urbanization and the superiority of old neighborhoods. So, it can be said that traditional and organic urbanization is a more appropriate basis for applying the new urbanism approach and this approach can be used in the form of urban regeneration.
Saeedeh Feizi, Dr Rasol Darskhan, Dr Hasan Sattarisarbangholi,
Volume 21, Issue 62 (9-2021)
Abstract
Both visual and service quality of urban landscape play an important role in the process of visual visibility assessment and effectiveness of these services as well. Given the fact that the existence of dead, cold, and soulless spaces in cities is affected by heterogeneity and visual contamination that is free from eye-catching and desirability. Therefore, this research seeks to evaluate the visual quality of the urban landscape of the Eil Goli district of Tabriz through the scale of the SERVQUAL tool. Understand the gap between the current situation and the expectations of Tabriz people on the 45-meter of El-Goli Boulevard towards the visual quality of the urban landscape; to realize the views and preferences of Tabriz citizens regarding the visual quality of urban landscape for the 45-meter El-Goli Boulevard in order to eliminate the weaknesses while improving its visual quality, taking into account the priorities and preferences of the people and to provide informative background for decision makers to improve the urban landscape design of Tabriz. So, data collection is carried out through the various sources in a comparative-analytical manner, using the documents, records and reports. The research statistical society includes citizens, specialists and experts and managers of the Department of Parks and Municipality of District 2 in this area which totally 310 questionnaires used for data collection. A questionnaire, expert analysis and library analysis will be carried out in the field observations for two sides of the El-Goli 45-meter Boulevard. The SPSS software, Klomgroph-Smirouph and One-way ANOVA used for analyses, checking the normal distribution of variables and comparing the five dimensions of service quality respectively. The results of the study indicate the relative satisfaction of the three groups under study. Also, some suggestions presented in order to increase urban satisfaction for the 45-meter boulevard of El-Goli, Tabriz city
Farnaz Izadi, Atefeh Ahmadi, Farzin Charehjoo,
Volume 21, Issue 62 (9-2021)
Abstract
Future study as an emerging knowledge is the evolutionary form of strategic planning. This knowledge has been used purposefully in recent years to meet the uncertainty and complexity of various dimension of issues and to designing the future of systems. In this regard, Kurdistan province in western Iran, despite the potential and actual capabilities, has not achieved the development appropriate with capacities and there are many structural problems in achieving this purpose. In this regard, the present study has examined the problems and challenges of lack of development in Kurdistan province with a descriptive-analytical and future study approach. The method of data collection is a survey and documentary studies. The problems and challenges and their effects on the development of the province have been identified to achieve results based on a semi-structured interview from elites and experts. MIC MAC software, environmental scanning method, and system analysis are used to analyzing the data. The results of the research in assessing the extent and the way of influencing of issues and challenges on each other and on the future status of development in Kurdistan province, respectively in the direct and indirect effectiveness and impressionability, indicates that water crisis, poverty, lack of development of industry, unbalanced tourism and animal husbandry, environmental degradation and lack of access to health services, unemployment, and improper management of water facilities play a major role in the future of development in Kurdistan province
Arash Sadri, Mahmod Heidari, Arezo Bangiyan Tabrizi,
Volume 21, Issue 62 (9-2021)
Abstract
The city health, social and physical environment with all facilities that perform life activities with ease and efficiency makes possible. Urbanization, followed by its specific problems such as environmental degradation, water pollution, air, soil, increase mental illnesses and civil society more than ever threatened. This has led to today's urban design and urban management many challenges in the field of population, housing shortage, pollution and environmental degradation, social conflicts and provision of services and facilities infrastructure is facing. In this regard, the plan to create a healthy city public participation plays an important role in cities. In fact, a healthy city, city to realize a healthy person. The urban design approach and engage in healthy people. This cross-sectional study and data collection instruments and survey was conducted in two ways. According to the results, the neighborhood Shiite index of the five health (social, economic, environmental, health and culture) desirable standards Healthy City away in some areas also need to redesign and greater participation authorities and people in the neighborhood felt. The paper solutions to create healthy city with the participation of the people through the realization of indicators and metrics have reached a healthy city.
Mr Ahmad Zanganeh, Mr Tajedin Karami, Ms Roghayeh Yadolahisaber,
Volume 21, Issue 62 (9-2021)
Abstract
Assessment is one of the important methods in analyzing the accomplishment of Sustainable development and as one of the necessities of planning can identify potential and actual environmental effect that is emerged as a result of the construction and development and provides logical options to solve them. The purpose of the current research is to assess the environmental effects of multi-layer highways on the neighborhood. The research is applied In terms of purpose and descriptive in terms of nature. Moreover, this research is environment based and uses sustainable development in theory. In order to analyze the data, 8 neighborhood around the Sadr bridge (Tajrish, Gheytariyeh, Chizar, Zargandeh, Sadr, Rostam Abas, Ekhtiyarieh and Pasdaran neighborhoods) were chosen as the analyze unit. Assessment indexes were assed in term of social, skeleton, vision and health-hygiene, economic and ecologic and safety-security domains. statistical Qualitative and quantitative methods including one sample T test and Friedman test were used to rate the domains and spatial analysis methods (spatial statistics) were used to show the status of the neighborhood. We also used the TOPSIS technique and Iranian Leopold in order to rate the neighborhood in terms of environmental effects of multi-layer Sadr Bridge. Results of the assessment matrix showed that Sadr multi-layer project is confirmed by providing corrective options in activities with high and very high damage. Based on the research findings it was found that the neighborhoods around the Sadr multi-layer highway given the assed dimensions, each have a different susceptibility from the multi-layer Sadr Bridge. In this regard, the ecological and skeleton have the most susceptibility and the security each have the least susceptibility from the Sadr multi-layer Sadr bridge and in rating the neighborhood, Rostamabad had the most susceptibility and the Zarhandeh has the least susceptibility from the Multi-layer Sadr bridge.
Mina Farokhi Someh, Shahrivar Rostaei, Rasoul Ghorbani,
Volume 21, Issue 62 (9-2021)
Abstract
Today, given the rapid growth of the world's population and its focus on cities, access to quality housing by urban dwellers is an essential component of influencing the long-term outlook of human communities. At the same time, considering the widespread impacts of housing on urban environments and on the economic, social and physical life of the city and its citizens, it is important to identify the factors that influence the choice of place of residence and housing. The residence has been emphasized on housing features. The type of research was applied and descriptive-analytical in nature; the method of data collection is library and field (questionnaire). The study population consisted of 384 households living in Tabriz metropolitan area. Then, tests (descriptive and inferential statistics) will be used and finally by diagnostic analysis using SPSS 22 and GIS software will analyze the relationships between variables. The results showed that demographic and lifestyle indices affect residence and housing choice and when demographic characteristics are combined with lifestyle, the choice of residence by the households is examined based on differences. Individual and lifestyle are important. Also, based on the results of the research, selection of residence and housing has a significant relationship with access to business centers, childcare centers, cultural centers, pedestrian access, parking and home warning cameras.
Shahin Khalilian, Fariba Alborzi, Jamalaladin Sohili,
Volume 21, Issue 62 (9-2021)
Abstract
. The research method used in this research is descriptive-analytical, survey and quasi-experimental of simulation kind. Data from research samples with survey method and other data were obtained using written sources and documentary studies and collection tool was selected according to the research objectives based on GIS maps and AutoCAD software outputs and simulation tools or the modeling in Revit software and then were investigated in Excel and the analysis of appropriateness was carried out with the help of simulated outputs and two-dimensional and three-dimensional maps and, a fuzzy logic method was used in MATLAB software, and the sample population is extracted based on a stratified sampling method and the selected residential settlements were in the sixth district of region 5 of Tehran and these residential settlements including Apadana, Ekbatan Phase II and Ekbatan Phase I and III. This article was analyzed with the aim of identifying the role of open and enclosed spaces for residential complexes on improving the quality of the environment, including efficiency by using field multi-criteria fuzzy logic method. After analyzing the data, the results of studying the spatial ratios in three samples of residential area in Tehran's 5th district with the performance component of the quality of the environment show that by decreasing the mass ratio (indoor spaces) and increasing the ratio of space (access spaces and green), increasing the quality of the environment cannot be reached, but also increasing the quality of the environment is in direct contact with the observing the proportionality component of the space between the mass and space proportions
Mrs Azadeh Atashpanjeh, Dr Mohammad Naghizadeh, Dr Zahrasadat Saeideh Zarabadi,
Volume 21, Issue 62 (9-2021)
Abstract
In today's urban planning, the paraphrastic processes of symbolic systems in the city, which aim to show the social and cultural meaning of the physical environment, have received less attention, and most urban contexts, regardless of significant and identifiable differences and similarities and the hidden values in the context and the patterns of traditional urban planning and architecture of Iran are formed, and this makes it important to analyze these processes. The object of this paper is to present a framework for considering change of semiotics system caused by factors affecting the urban identity and comparing these systems in the old and new textures of the city by layered attitude toward the city as a multimedia text. The research is qualitative and the method of research is descriptive-analytic analytic and Semiotics has been used as a tool and method for considering representations and analyzing the identity of the city. Studies in the old context relied heavily on documents and in the new context is field and the samples were studied in hot and dry areas of Iran.The results show that based on the study of representations in the symbolic system in the textual layers of the city form, the duality of meaning and identity of the old and new textures of a city over time indicate several main factors of change within the textual layers of the form of city, the rupture and duality in the human layer and change in the system of codes that affect the structure of the city form, which is manifested in the elimination, replacement or change of signs in the natural, social and artificial layers.
Saeed Mohammadlou, Mohammad Mahdi Mozaffari, Babak Haji Karimi, Kamyar Kavosh,
Volume 21, Issue 62 (9-2021)
Abstract
One of the concepts that is widely considered in all societies today, especially in developed countries, is the electronic city. The e-city is not an invention or an innovative proposal, but a reality that has shown its place based on the needs of today's society. The aim of this study was to analyze the effect of components of business preferences in achieving e-city. This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical method. Data collection tool was a researcher-made questionnaire whose validity was confirmed as qualitative and quantitative validity and its reliability was confirmed using Cronbach's alpha method and combined reliability. In this study, in order to analyze the research data from the software SPSS and Amose were used. Findings of this study showed that the variables of customer knowledge, customer focus, customer lifetime value, value creation, technology, useful interaction and communication quality have a positive and significant effect on the realization of e-city. Among the research variables, the customer-centric variable with a path coefficient of 0.38 had the most impact and the customer knowledge variable with a path coefficient of 0.19 had the least impact.
Ms Zinat Ranjbar, Dr Pari Shokri Firoozjah, Dr Gholamreza Janbaz Ghobadi,
Volume 21, Issue 62 (9-2021)
Abstract
The aim of this study was to evaluate the status of urban resilience in the coastal cities of western Mazandaran province in peak travel conditions. Therefore, in terms of the nature of a descriptive-analytical research, in terms of purpose, it is an applied-developmental research based on survey and field methods. The method of collecting research data was based on the library method, documentation and field survey method (questionnaire tool). The study area is the western coastal cities of Mazandaran province (Noor, Nowshahr, Chalous, Tonekabon and Ramsar). One-way t-test was used to evaluate the status of urban resilience and its various dimensions. The sample cities are then compared and ranked with the Idas multi-criteria decision-making method based on the status of urban resilience and its dimensions. Excel, Spss and GIS software were used in the research stages. The final findings of the study, according to the general result of one-way t-test for the set of urban resilience dimensions, indicate poor resilience of coastal cities in the west of Mazandaran province in peak travel conditions. Also, according to the results of the Idas technique, out of five cities studied, three cities are in weak groups, ie "low resilience status and non-resilience". Therefore, the situation of urban resilience in the western coastal cities of Mazandaran province can be assessed as weak and undesirable based on the indicators of this study.
Mina Eftekharnia, Keramatollah Ziari, Majid Naderi,
Volume 21, Issue 62 (9-2021)
Abstract
Today, the concept of competition has spread in the world in such a way that all countries and governments at the national, regional or local levels are looking for a way to expand and improve economic conditions in favor of investments to stimulate competitiveness. The study of regional development strategies is defined through more competitiveness in the field of capitalist relations and there is less indication of sustainable development concept. On the other hand, due to the complex relationship between environmental, social and economic systems, with the introduction of the concept of competitiveness in the development process, regardless of other subsystems, the field of environmental and social damage in urban and regional systems has arisen and consequences Such as uneven development, increasing social disparities and inequalities and environmental pollution, increasing energy consumption, traffic and other social, cultural and environmental issues; In a way that many metropolises of the world and even Iran are involved with these issues now.
In this research, due to the nature of the research, library methods have been used to review the theoretical literature related to the research and to identify indicators related to spatial analysis, content analysis methods have been used. In this regard, first, the activities with competitive advantage in Arak District have been analyzed, spatially using the indexing method and the position of cities has been determined based on the ability to compete in activities with competitive advantage. Then, according to the outlined landscape for Arak District, strategies, policies and spatial rules for use in the region have been written.
Dr Hossein Nazmfar, Miss Ameneh Alibakhshi,
Volume 21, Issue 63 (12-2021)
Abstract
Tourism is one of the most important means of development in the world. Many countries in the world pay special attention to tourism as an effective tool for their political, cultural and economic development in their country's policies and programs. The present study was carried out in order to plan tourism in Ardebil province based on a futuristic study method. The present research is applied in a practical way as a combination of documentary and survey methods based on a futuristic approach. The research area of Ardabil province and the statistical population is 45 tourism experts, urban and regional planning and executive agencies of the province. Delphi method, cross-effects matrix (Wizard scenario software) and Wizard scenario software were used to analyze the data. Based on the findings of the Delphi method and environmental scanning, 88 factors were identified as influential factors in the development of tourism in Ardebil. In the second step, using the Micmac method, 14 key Factors, including the comprehensive tourism plan, the media, stimulus policies, macro policies of the state, distribution of facilities, infrastructure, recreational centers, increased private incentive to invest in the region, the region's susceptibility to Investment in tourism, planning, security facilities, budget, the existence of hot and mineral water springs, improvement of information systems, such as site and blog, have been identified as key to the development of Ardebil province. In the third step, based on key factors, believable futures were explained using the Wizard scenario method, which ultimately resulted in three strong, weak and believable scenarios. In this scenario, believable scenarios are due to the intermediate between scenarios Strong and weak, have been based on analysis. Accordingly, there are three scenarios named "Golden scenario", " believable scenario" and "Disaster scenario" for the future of tourism in Ardebil province.