---

---

---

Today in democratic governments, accountability to people and obtain the consent of them form local services is important for people's participation in local governance and consequently it is important to organizational success. In rural areas, wide range of services offered by local public organizations. Rural Satisfaction with the quality of their services, is one of the public performance indicators. The purpose of this study was to measure and analyze the rural people satisfaction from services quality of local organizations in Ilam province. Research Statistical Unit, is all villages with over 20 households in Ilam province. Research Statistical population is all members of the village councils and the study was done by counting all. The overall 1130 questionnaires were collected from 398 villages. The data were collected using a closed questionnaire.The model of Service Quality Gaps was used to assessment of villager’s satisfaction and One sample Chi-square used to analysis and assessment of comments. Also Cluster analysis was used to compare and cluster the villagers' satisfaction and one way ANOVA tests and Duncan's post hoc test was used to compare the satisfaction of villagers in different counties. The results showed that the villagers have little satisfaction in all of the local organizations. Cluster analysis results show that villagers are the most satisfaction from primary education, rural health centers and telephone services.  Also ANOVA results show that villagers in Dehloran County are less and Ilam County most satisfied with the public services. Correlation analysis revealed that a positive correlation exists between index of rural enjoyment and the public consensus. Also there is a negative correlation between distance of accessibility index and the public consensus.

---

The more exposure to Climate change / variability, the more vulnerability and a community with low adaptive capacity and high sensitivity is more vulnerable. Vulnerability reduction depends on adaptation policy and strategies. Designing and assessing these strategies require climate vulnerability (CV) measuring. To produce a new CV index, as a main propose of this study, first: The score of exposure factor for two five span years was calculated based on four synoptic stations data (Zabol, Zahedan, Iranshahr and Chabahar). Second: The scores of adaptive capacity and climate sensitivity were determined using all of the country census and yearbook data for 1385 and 1390. Third: Due to the nature and factors of vulnerability, a climate vulnerability index was developed based on the multiplicative-exponential model (CVIMEM). Forth: The index was calculated for the province and sub regions. The result shows, although the Sistan and Baluchistan (SB) adaptation capacity was increased, but because of the increased exposure and sensitivity, this province is 16.3% more vulnerable. Area with very high vulnerability label expanded from 57.5% to 100%, which reflects the spatial expansion of vulnerability over SB. The overall result is that vulnerability reduction needs for accurate and continuous measurement, on the increase adaptation capacity and mitigate climate sensitivity.

---

Transportation networks‚ particularly roads as a linking elements between settlements has a significant role in the exchange of flows between urban and rural areas and also rural development .The aim of this paper is to study the effect of highways construction and expanding transportation on rural stable development in the rural district of eastern Miankouh which by using survey method (questionnaire) have been turned to the studying of highways construction on development quality of adjacent villages in this rural district. In this study ‚mean time of defining the population community (514 family)‚ the 103 family was selected as a sample with Cochran formula (12 villages).The result of achieved data analysis‚ on the basis of‚ fitting regression test‚ linear regression and path analysis showed that the most general effect of highway construction is relevant to the environmental dimension with amount of (0/591) so that the contamination of soil and water resources have been increased in rural areas. Also using of fertilizers and pesticides is been prevalent. The amount of demolition of water resources such as springs and water channeling have been increased in the rural boundary. and also pastures‚ forests and fertile lands have been allocated to the building constructions and forming dimension with amount of (0/058) has the least overall effect on the rural stable development in the boundary of studying area.

---

Agricultural sector has an important role in development of countries. One of the obstacles to development in this sector, especially in Iran is significant fragmentation of agricultural lands. The aim of this study is to assess the farmers’ willingness to participate in land consolidation project using structural equation modeling. The population of this study consists of all farmers of Meymeh County and its surrounding cities and villages and Niloofar-Abi cooperative of Vazvan city. Data were collected on a sample of 156 farmers through face-to-face interviews based on a comprehensive structured questionnaire. Before the survey, the reliability and validity of questionnaire was initially evaluated on a pre-test study respectively by using Cronbach’s alpha coefficient, expert’s judgment and Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO) criteria. The results of this study show that the most important factors on farmers' willingness to participation are crop acreage and number of plots which respectively has the greatest positive and negative effect. The awareness of the farmers about benefit of consolidation project is another factor which has significant and positive impact on farmers' willingness. Furthermore, level of farmers schooling has no significant effect.

---

Trees can record long-term effects of climate variables. Using dendroclimatology knowledge, we can reconstruct such variables especially for areas which have short-term climatic data. For this purpose, we reconstructed the temperature degree of the warm months (May-September) through annual rings width of Quercus persica and regression analysis of data obtained from stations on Dena region. With this goal in mind, three growth heights were selected in Dena Forests and 52 growth samples from 26 bases were extracted and their growth rings width were measured with LINTAB5 with an accuracy of 0.01 mm. After cross dating stage, to eliminate non-climate effects, May to September temperature average and tree rings time series were standardized. The Residual Chronology (RES) calculated by ARSTAN was calibrated with temperature degree of the period 1882-2011 and its positive and significant correlation with the width of growth rings was confirmed. Based on the relations between the calculated chronology and joint statistical temperature degree data, the reconstruction of temperature degree of the warm seasons for over a century was performed and it was found that in the last three decades, region's average temperature of May to September had an increase in comparison to the average of the previous century.  

---

Arasbaran is one of most important regions in terms of agriculture, economics and tourism in northwest of Iran that it usually receives the most yearly spring precipitation. To recognize the synoptic patterns of the 500 hpa, geopotential  height data were driven for coordinates 00-70 ˚ E and 15- 65˚N in rainy springs (1972-1976-1979-1981-1986).To select the most important component using principal components  analysis, a matrix S mode with dimensions 386×610 was used. The results showed that more than 92% of the total variance can be explained by 13 components. After clustering procedure on the 13 components, six circulation patterns were obtained. In 5 cases of the extracted patterns, there's a really high center of east Mediterranean and south east Europe, the most important component was detected during the wet spring. Other major factors will be referred to the short-wave atmospheric middle level that at this time of year is usually active between the Caspian Sea and the Black Sea and cause wet periods in spring in this area.The systems accompanying low active centers of located in Central Asia and their short waves bring instability and precipitation in the spring to this area.

---

Abstract

In this study, the predicted monthly temperature and rainfall data from HadCM3 model (base period, ۱۹۷۲-۲۰۰۱) and next period (۲۰۱۱-۲۰۴۰) under A2emission scenario were used to investigate the impacts of climate change on runoff variations in the Kor river basin. HadCM3 model output was downscaled based on a temporal downscaling approach (Change Factor) and spatial downscaling approach (Proportional) for the basin. The time series of monthly temperature and precipitation were produced in future period. The results showed that temperature and rainfall will increase and decrease in the future period relative to the base period, respectively. Then, the calibrated IHACRES model was used to model rainfall-runoff relationships in the Kor river basin. Then, the downscaled monthly temperature and rainfall time series in next period were employed to rainfall-runoff model and the monthly runoff time series were simulated for period ۲۰۱۱- ۲۰۴۰. The comparison of future period runoff relative to observed period showed that the annual runoff in the basin for period ۲۰۱۱-۲۰۴۰ will decrease about ۹٫۴۳% with respect to base period.

---

This study tries to identify, classify, and analyze synoptic cold wave in North West region of Iran. This study applies standardized (z scores) index of Minimum Temperature in the period of 1951-2010.as such cold waves were classified based on the intensity of occurance. Out of occured cold wave in North West of the coldest identified wave pertaingt each class for synoptic analyzes were selected. This study suggests that the prevailing pressure pattern during the relevant wave indicates high pressure over the earth surface as well as deep trough in upper layer. From the continuing cold standpoint, the role of changing position from pavallel wind in to meridional corresponel to blocking is very offective. Blocking in turn leads to reduction in speed of cold air masses which are originating from higher latitude. They were assouclated with cold waves. More precipitation as so ciated with higher latitude as well as low speed flows will lead to strong and continious waves.

---

One of the Siberian high pressure system is the Earth climate system, atmospheric important. The purpose of this study, analysis of core changes Siberian high pressure system in the period mentioned. To identify the core spatial variations in the timeframe mentioned data, daily sea level pressure and temperature of the earth's surface with a resolution of 2.5 degrees within the space of 30 to 65 degrees north latitude and 130 degrees east longitude from the database 45 to NOAA NCEP / NCAR for the cold was extracted. The core of the GIS spatial data analysis system and two separate zones and point to output six decades was ten years old and were analyzed. To study the process of change, determine the direction of the trend, type and timing of changes in temperature and pressure of the core of the system the test of Mann-Kendal is used. Comparison between the first and sixth decades 60-year period showed that the core in January from the East to the West and in October and March from the North East to the South West from the Balkhash Lake to Baikal there has been a significant shift. Results also showed that during the same period the Siberian High central pressure was reduced in January while the land surface temperatures in January showed a significant upward trend. Unlike the months of October and January, in March the central pressure had few mutations but no trend was observed. However, during this month the Earth's surface temperature has increased significantly during thementioned period.

---

The KabirKooh landslide was studied as one of the immediate catastrophic events which causes falling rocks from the KabirKooh hillside and the obstruction of the Seymarreh river course and also formed a lot of geomorphologi­cal shapes in this area. This landslide was located at 5 km of the Poldokhtar city at the south between the Ilam and Lorestan province. The main purpose of this research to provide and analyzie of Morp­hom­­­etric feature of the landslide inclusive, width of the rupture surface (), length of the displaced mass (), length of the rupturesurface(), width of the displaced mass (), the depth of the rupture surface (), the depth of the displaced mass to it will be discussed (),(/),(/), (/) and volume. For this work by using by using Global mapper11 software, to be conform the topographic area maps in the scale of 1/50000 and the digital elevation model. Arc Gis 9.3 and Surfer 10 software was used for preparing and producing new data and information. Considering the analyse of this indexs is, : equal to 15/5 ,: 16/06, :15.5,: 300 M,: 300 M, /:0.50, /:51.67, /:26.03 and volume 3908200970 .

---

The objective study was to investigate the effects of social capital on sustainability security in the villages the border areas. Statistical population including the villages of the central city of Saravan are heads of households (N= 9946). 421 households (23 villages) using Cochran formula and simple random sampling were selected. for the analysis data, descriptive and inferential statistics two methods (single sample t test, Pearson correlation and path analysis) is used. Results the research findings on the impact of social capital in rural sustainable security shows that the greatest impact is related to social security. Memorizing of patterns such a way that increases language, preservation of culture and religion, reducing drug use among youth, reduce the amount of conflict is between the people and so on. the lowest impact related to later economy. findings also show that dimension politico-military security partnership, trust and of cohesion between peoples and cooperation between police forces and and border guard to increase the political participation of the people, ethnic and sectarian narrow the gap, reducing illegal traffic in neighboring countries, increased cooperation with military forces in the fight against bandits and smugglers and maintain security and order is sent.

---

In this study is simulation of role of topography in thickness and Inland penetration of sea-breeze in southern coast of the Caspian Sea. The RegCM4 as a regional scale climate model coupled with a lake model and also the reanalysis data of NCEP / NCAR used to determine of the initial conditions of the model. The model was run during the peak of sea breeze on the southern coast of the Caspian Sea (July 2002) in both conditions (with mountains) and (without mountains). the outputs indicated that in without topography condition depth of the sea breeze will increase to the current position the southern slopes of the Alborz Mountains ( latitude ᵒ35 ) but the land breeze in the area is gone. The maximum speed and changes in wind direction observed on the coast southeast and central Alborz respectively. In addition with non-topography conditions, the thickness of sea breeze in different areas significantly has increased with the highest rate on the eastern coast (longitude ᵒ53).

---

Guidance plan does with economic, structure, social and cultural attitude in Iran and this plan has high effect on rural life. Therefore it is essential that we study guidance plan base of rural managers and rural councils attitude. Investigative method was descriptive, analysis (survey method) and research tools were questionnaire. Statistical society includes rural managers and rural council members. Sampling method in rural managers was census method and rural council methods were random sampling method. Number of rural managers was 31 and number of rural council members was 103 respondents (in councils with 3 members we select 3 respondents and in rural councils with 5 members we select 3 respondents). Results shows that guidance plan have positive effect on structure of village. But in economic and cultural dimensions, there is no effect on villages. Maps of guidance plan were weak. Respondent believe that there are low satisfaction about guidance plan among rural managers and rural council members. It is important and we must notice to it.  

.

---

In this research, impacts of climate change on the streamflow hydrological status of the Arazkooseh River are discussed. After Calibration and validation of the LARS-WG, HadCM3 was downscaled under A2 Scenario in three climatology station. Beside, calibration and validation of the SWAT model were done by observed data relative to past period of times. Streamflow values are then predicted using climatic parameters of period of 2011-2030, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 years via SWAT model. The results indicated that the average annual temperature will increased around 0.8, 1.2 and 4.9 °C in desired periods, respectively. Precipitation values will increased 8.8 and 11.2 percent in the early and mid- century and it will decreased with 7.8 percent in the last years of century, correspondingly. The peak of rainfall will moved from month of March to the December. Because of climate changes, streamflow will increase 13 and 5 percent in the near periods. By contrast, in this case, it will reduce around 18 percent in far future. In this case research, the river discharge will increased in autumn and will decreased in spring seasons. Likewise, results of estimation showed that the annual peak flow will shifted from month of March to the April.

---

In Iran the issue of occurring natural disasters, particularly mesoscale convective systems. They are important on one hand, because of their increasing intimidations and causing damages and on the other hand, because of their increasing abundance, time of duration, and happening. Therefore life cycle, constituton condition and mesoscale convective systems features in west of Iran using satellite and extention area index and thresholds of brightness temperature 221 and 243 K have been studied. After their statistic analysis, based on mesoscale convective system importance, life and daily cycle, behavior parameters, and synoptic conditions of this system life cycle were analysed. Most of the systems have been formed in southeastern Iraq and in western Zagros hillsides. Wile puberty stages (the maturity) and their expandings were increased with the height increase; in turn, declining of the systems began by passing Zagros chain mountains. The system extention area at the system life cycle starting increases with a smooth process; whereas the reduction process of the system extention area at the declining stage was severe and sudden.

---

There are numerous methods to estimate missing values of which some are used depending on the data type and regional climatic characteristics. In this research, part of the monthly precipitation data in Sarab synoptic station, east Azerbaijan province, Iran was randomly considered missing values. In order to study the effectiveness of various methods to estimate missing data, by seven classic statistical methods and M5 model tree as one of efficient data mining methods, hypothetical missing values were estimated using precipitation data from neighbor station. The results showed that multiple imputation, Delta Learning Rule, and Multivariable Linear Regression (MLR) yield relatively more accurate results with fewer errors. The results also indicate the fact that, developing if-then rules, M5 tree model, as one of modern data mining methods, has been able to give the most accurate results among the mentioned methods with four simple linear relationship and statistical values including correlation coefficient (0.974), Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (0.948), RMSE (5.11), and MAE (4.189). Therefore, taking simple modeling process, functionality, comprehensibility, and high accuracy of this method into account, this method is proposed to estimate monthly precipitation missing values.

---

The rural guide plan is the most important tool in the management of rural development in Iran. The final purpose of the plan, improvement of life quality and providing a safe and attractive environment to live in rural areas. The aim of this study is to emphasize the characteristics rural guide plans, which include: Improve the quality of housing, street network, land use and access to services, environmental rural its effects on the objective quality of life of the villagers tested. The research method in present study was functional in terms of purpose, and analytical-descriptive and solidarity methodologically. The study population was selected from 22 villages in which guide plan had been implemented, among them 8 villages with a population of 3835 households was selected by using sampling method. From the selected villages by using sampling method (Cochran), 249 randomly selected rural households were interviewed. Data collected from the questionnaires, were analyzed using the statistical analysis methods in SPSS, and Fitness model search EQS software. According to the results of Pearson's correlation tests, the findings of present study showed a significant and strong correlation between implementation of rural guide plan and the mental facet of life quality by a 0.75 correlation coefficient, so that rural guide plan explained 57% of the variation of dependent variable, and among guide plan dimensions the changing environmental rural affected the objective improvement of life quality of villagers by 29 percent. There is a direct and complete correlation in spatial distribution of relationship between the implementation of guide plan and the objective quality of life in 8 study villages.

---

In this research, the relationship between NCPI and CACO indices with autumn precipitation of Southern Coast of Caspian Sea (SCCS) was investigated. In this regard, two sets of data were used (Aphrodite and Station). And the days with more rainfall than long-term average rainfall station and on condition that the rainfall is more than 70% of the region rainfall, were chosen as a day of widespread rainfall. The sea level pressure data was extracted and by cluster analysis and coalition method was clustered. Then, a representative of the widespread precipitation days from station dataset was selected, investigated and analyzed accordingly. The results state that within all patterns there exists a high pressure on the upper side of the Caspian Sea, or a margin of high pressure is extended on to the sea itself. These high pressure regions have relatively cold nature that can cause currents in the northern direction while intersecting with the relatively warm water during the summer. These currents can absorb moisture during their motion towards south which can lead to their instability. In addition, one should not forget the fact that in each three investigated patterns, dynamic factors at high levels have intensified the abovementioned phenomenon and enhanced the instability, which as a result brought about widespread precipitation. Continuously, the abovementioned Remote bond indices were extracted on a daily basis and their relation to north coast widespread rainfalls was studied, which came to a meaningful relationship between these index sets and fall index sets. The relationship is direct with NCPI or surveyed stations, and it’s an inverse relationship with CACO. On the other hand, the study of indexes anomalies on the days without rainfall and with rainfall was done by One Way ANOVA and Tukey test. The result was a meaningful index anomaly on the days with and without rainfall.