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Dr Hoomayoon Molaei, Dr Emamgholi Babadi,
Volume 23, Issue 70 (9-2023)
Abstract

Abstract
Iran is one of the most earthquake-prone countries in the world and its cities have suffered a lot due to this natural phenomenon. The purpose of this study was the spatial analysis of earthquake crisis management. The research method has been applied-developmental. The research area of ​​Khuzestan province and the statistical population included elites in the field of urban planning in Khuzestan province who were selected by targeted sampling method. There have also been two statistical tests. The results of statistical analysis showed that from the perspective of statistical individuals, proper crisis management (organizational structure, proper distribution of emergency services, manpower, equipment and information system) has a positive and significant effect on reducing mortality and financial vulnerability. Also, the results of Hot spot analysis showed that hot and earthquake-prone hotspots in Khuzestan province were mostly located in Behbahan, Masjed Soleiman and Andimeshk counties
 
Khadigeh Khatiri, Iran Ghazi, Nemat Hasani,
Volume 23, Issue 71 (12-2023)
Abstract

Identifying the level and trend of social capital among the people of a society can help to identify the social and cultural changes of that. The purpose of this study is to explain the development of social capital in urban water crisis management using factor analysis. This research is of applied-developmental type and descriptive-survey study method. The questionnaire is used to collect information and SPSS software and exploratory analysis statistical test is used to analyze the data. The statistical population includes the countrychr('39')s crisis and water supply managers (15 people chosen by targeted sampling); Also, all residents of Karaj during 1396 - 1395, which was used as a statistical sample using the Cochranchr('39')s table for 350 people, of which 44.3% were women and 55.7% were men. The results of statistical analysis showed that in people (sampled) of statistical population’s opinion the level of social capital was lower than what desired. Also, the factors involved in the development of social capital for the water shortage crisis were counted and measured in the form of 24 variables. And finally 5 items eliminated to be effective ones to development of social capital in crisis management of urban water which are ( in order of preferences ) social trust, motivating policies, change in attitude atmosphere, infrastructures of interactions and values in the society, mutual reconciliation between people and government

Hadi Zerafati, Yousef Ghavidel, Manuchehr Farajzadeh,
Volume 24, Issue 72 (3-2024)
Abstract

In this study, for statistical studies to determine days whit temperature above 50°c, the reanalyzed data of the nineteenth, twentieth and twenty-first centuries for the West Asia region (12 to 42.5 degrees north latitude and 36 to 63.5 degrees east longitude) have been used. Also, for synoptic analysis of extreme temperatures, HGT, AIR, UWND, VWND and SLP data were used. To conduct this research, first, extreme temperature data above 50° during the last 185 years were extracted for the study area in the hot season (June, July, August and September). After identifying days whit above 50° c, HGT data at the level of 500 hp were extracted and WARD clustering was applied. Finally, after identifying the clusters, the days whit the highest temperature that occurred in each cluster were selected for synoptic analysis. It can be said that all altitude patterns of geopotential meters (HGT) at the level of 500 hp show that the main cause of occurrence and distribution of temperatures above 50°c in West Asia are high-altitude (high-pressure) subtropical West Asia, which due to the location of its high-pressure core on the Zagros and sometimes the Arabian Peninsula, it has been referred to as the Zagros or Saudi high-pressure in terms of interest and taste. What is certain, however, is the high-pressure independent identity of the subtropical Azores, which has been mentioned in numerous articles and is known to be the main cause of the heat in the West Asian region, especially Iran.

Mrs Somayeh Naderi, Prof. Bohloul Alijani, Prof. Zahra Hedjazizadeh, Dr. Hasan Heidari, Dr. Karim Abbaspour,
Volume 24, Issue 73 (6-2024)
Abstract


Evidence suggests that climate change will create uncertain regional agricultural production stability in the coming decades. This research investigated the impact of climate change on hydrology and sugar beet yield as one of the main crops in the Urmia lake basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). To address this, a baseline SWAT model was setup for 1986-2014. Afterward, the output was calibrated (1989-2004) and validated (2005-2014) in the SWAT-CUP software using the SUFI2 algorithm to simulate streamflow of 23 gauging stations and crop yield. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency was 0.43 and 0.53 for calibration and validation periods, sequentially. The Percent Bias was 45% and 16% for calibration and validation periods, respectively. As well as the agreement indices of 0.71 and the little Percent Bias (-6% to 10%) for crop production, verified the model's efficiency. The next step was downscaling and bias-correction of the precipitation and temperature data received from 3 climate models, namely GFDL, HadGEM2, and IPSL under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 using CCT program. Then, the downscaled data were fed to SWAT, and Finally, hydrological fluxes and sugar beet yield were estimated for 2021-2050. Despite a dispersion of precipitation changes ranging from -12% to +35% in most scenarios, results highlight the pivotal role that the warmer temperature (+2.7°C) increases evaporation, resulting in sharpened pressure on water resources and runoff, especially, at the beginning of crop growth season. Finally, the negative impacts on crop productivity (-45%) is not unexpected. This means that sugar beet may suffer from climate change impacts, and the production of this plant will change over the next period in this region.

Keywords: Climate Change, Sugar Beet, Urmia Lake Basin, Sensitivity Analysis, SWAT.
Sara Sadeghizadeh Ghavi Fekr, Dr Asghar Tahmasebi, Dr Farhad Azizpour,
Volume 24, Issue 73 (6-2024)
Abstract

 
Population growth and the need for economic and social services have accelerated the demands for land and its manipulations over the recent decades. The contribution of policies and interventions of different stakeholders in land change is not adequately addressed in previous studies. This research, therefore, aims to examine the role of key stakeholders, and their policies in land-use change in the study area. In doing so a total number of 20 interviews with senior experts and informants from 13 local organizations were conducted to collect qualitative data on the form, process and cause of land-use change in the area. Atlasti software was used to analysis the interviews' data. Furthermore, Social Networks Analysis (SNA) and questionnaires were used to map the trust among the stakeholders and also the role of their policies and program on land-use changes from the perspective of other stakeholders. The results show that the policies and interventions of the municipality are playing the most significant role in land-use change via disregarding and violations of roles and related for individual illegal benefits. Additionally, departments of agriculture, rural councils are among the most trusted agents in land use governance and management. Furthermore, water shortage was the most important reason pointed out by the many interviewees for conversion of farmlands to other uses. A part from water shortage, some other reasons such as: lack of governmental support for farming, strict official constraints and difficulties in providing amenities for gardens, expensive agricultural inputs, land price increase, immigration, corruptions in local organization are identified as drivers of rural land-use change.
Keywords: Key words: Land use change, stakeholders, governance, Social Networks Analysis, Shariyar County.


Dr Hamid Reza Mohammadi, Me Mohsen Pakparvar,
Volume 24, Issue 73 (6-2024)
Abstract


In relation to the housing of the disadvantaged, the possibility of access to a suitable housing for every Iranian household in accordance with the household's needs in such a way that the housing concern does not exceed other areas of the household's life and stable and safe access to the household's housing is also guaranteed, showing the ideal vision of the housing sector in documentary studies, is related to disadvantaged groups. The purpose of this study is to achieve the set of strategies and the general form of realistic and effective programs in the field of housing support for the deprived and low-income groups, which, while determining the limits and type of government intervention in relation to housing and different economic groups, will make the target groups enjoy support programs faster. This study is based on the combined model of SWOT strategic analysis and QSPM strategic planning model and examines the findings of studies and the results of interviews with experts in the field of geography and urban planning. SWOT analysis showed that 1- Ignoring the lack of simultaneous use of the process of management and operation of low-income housing based on the participation of local social institutions and non-governmental organizations 2- Lack of necessary knowledge or disregard for the diversity of needs of the deprived and disregard for Special Characteristics of Target Groups 3. The imbalance between the benefits of different individuals in different groups in relation to support programs has led to the inefficiency of the policies of the deprived and the enjoyment of supportive housing for this group. "Empowerment programs" and "Attracting participation by exploiting local capacity and internal capacities by developing and diversifying empowerment", along with a general balancing policy to increase capacity in non-governmental sectors based on household participation. Faster households have support programs Provides housing and participation of all stakeholders in planning.
 Keywords: development programs, government policies, housing for the deprived, SWOT analysis, QSPM model.
 
Dr Shahrivar Rostaei, Dr Rahim Heydari Chyaneh, Mr Ayoub Zoghi,
Volume 24, Issue 73 (6-2024)
Abstract

As cities become more physically in structure and demographically wider, the rate of crises is also increasing consequently, and cities become more vulnerable to natural disasters for a variety of reasons, including economic and cultural poverty, fault alignment and non-compliance to regulations of earthquake-related issues.  What matters is the level of community's preparedness and the degree of vulnerability of the city and its residents, which can be reduced to the lowest level if properly planned and principle policies are adopted.  In this research, considering the high potential of Sanandaj in terms of seismicity and the existence of many faults in the vicinity and around of the city, it is tried to gain an authentic understanding of the subject with identifying the factors affecting the earthquake and combining indicators using the  Classification Tree Analysis (CTA) model. The results indicate that a large area of   the city is in the category of moderate to high vulnerability.52% is in the middle vulnerability category, 16.5% is in the high vulnerability category and 1% of the city is considered to be in the very high vulnerability category, which exactly matches the same marginal, old and densely populated neighborhoods. This situation does not render a proper structure and needs more consideration in prospective development plans.
 
Zoleikha Khezerluei Mohammadyar, , Bohloul Alijani,
Volume 24, Issue 73 (6-2024)
Abstract


The purpose of this article is to analyze the frequency and severity of the one to six days of rainfall in Iran. The trend of frequency changes and severity of each course was identified using my-candle test and the slope estimator during the 1968-1988 period. Then, using the main component analysis method and cluster analysis method, the entire stations were categorized in five clusters (abundance) and four (intensity) based on the annual changes of frequency indicators and intensity of precipitation. Cluster 1 and 2 stations represent the frequency of precipitation periods with a severe or without trend. The two clusters were mostly established in the southern half of Iran. Cluster 4 and 5 stations represent the frequency of precipitation periods with a positive (mild) trend, mainly in the northern part of the country. Cluster 3 stations represent the frequency of precipitation periods with decreased (mild) trends, which are mostly focused on west and southwestern Iran. The clustering results of the stations based on the intensity index of precipitation periods, contrary to many results; do not show a specific pattern. But in the cluster, there has been a severe decrease in the last half century. The stations of this cluster are mostly concentrated in the northern parts of the country. Other clusters are scattered in almost all parts of the country. Accordingly, it can be concluded that the frequency of precipitation periods in the northern latitudes of incremental processes (average or weak) and the severity of precipitation periods in these latitudes (north of the country) had severe declining trends.

Keywords: Frequency of precipitation, intensity of precipitation, analysis of main components, clustering, process.
 

Zahra Alizadeh -, Dr Mohammad Taghi Masoumi, Dr Hossein Nazmfar, Dr Akbar Abravesh,
Volume 24, Issue 73 (6-2024)
Abstract


Today, with the expansion of urbanization and the increase in the population of cities, urban poverty is one of the important problems that it seems necessary to fight. In the 21st century, one of the indicators of urban progress is the issue of low urban poverty (Lemanski and Marx, 2015). In order to analyze and evaluate the indicators of urban poverty in Rasht city in different blocks and to cluster social poverty in this city (very poor, poor, average, wealthy, very wealthy), to analyze social poverty and extract spatial hot spots from Arc software. Gis was used. And the extraction of different areas of the city was calculated from the R software and by the multi-indicator Prometheus decision-making method, where the weight of the indicators was obtained by the ANP method from the raw data of the statistical blocks of Rasht city in the census of 2015. The findings of the research showed that comparatively, the central parts of the city are covered by medium blocks, and in the outer and peripheral parts of the city center, two hot spot areas are observed, which contain very prosperous blocks. Cold spots are also clearly visible on the outer edge of the city and they cover very poor and poor blocks, and except for the hot and cold spots, the city is mostly in the form of mild spots and most of the blocks are in poor condition. They are placed in average social poverty. Also, based on the findings of the research, most of the deprived areas in terms of social poverty in Rasht city are located in the north-west and north-east parts of the city.


 
Dr Ahmad Aftab, Dr Ali Akbar Taghilo, Mr Akbar Houshmand,
Volume 24, Issue 74 (9-2024)
Abstract

The continuous and active presence of disciplinary centers has an important role in ensuring security and peace in cities.Therefore the fair and efficient distribution of law enforcement centers in urban areas is an important factor in meeting this basic need.Therefore, the present study aims to investigate the service of police stations on vulnerable areas of Urmia.The descriptive-analytical research method used in this study is applied.The results of the study show that the vulnerability zoning of the city of Urmia is in four categories from very high to very low. About 68 km2 of the whole area of the city is known to be highly vulnerable.Most of the northern (informal settlements of Region 2) and central (old districts of four region) settlements of Urmia are the most vulnerable areas due to the high density of population and housing,with most of the politically sensitive, commercial and administrative offices in these areas.The results of the network analysis based on standard time (12 minutes) indicate that the 28.9% (24 km2) of the Urmia Vulnerable Areas was not covered by the police stations.Within 12 minutes the police stations of Urmia city have quick access to 55 km2 of about 75 km2 area with high vulnerability and about 20 km2 of this area also without timely access. In terms of the police stations access to low vulnerability areas,the results also show that from about 15 km2 of these areas to 3 km2 have quick access, indicates that there is no quick access to these 12 km2
Mehrdad Mohamadpour Shatery, Hoshang Taghizadeh, Sahar Khoshfetrat,
Volume 24, Issue 74 (9-2024)
Abstract

The phenomenon of poverty is a social, economic, cultural, and political reality that has long been one of the greatest human problems. The purpose of this study was to identify the factors affecting poverty and examine the internal relations and its leveling with an interpretive structural approach in the Imam Khomeini Relief Committee of Tabriz. In this regard, based on the factors extracted from literature, a questionnaire has been developed. In this phase, 41 indicators have been selected as the most important indicators affecting poverty at Imam Khomeini Relief Committee of Tabriz city. After obtaining appropriate validity and reliability for the questionnaire, it has been distributed among the statistical sample. After distributing the questionnaire, factor analysis was used to analyze the information and reduce the variables to dimensions. The results of factor analysis showed that about 68.3% of the total variance of variables was explained by 14 factors and about 31.7% of the variance was explained by other variables that were not measured. As a result, 14 factors have been identified as the most important factors affecting poverty. These 14 factors are important in order of importance: 1- Economic; 2- Social; 3- Individual; 4- Legal; 5- Family; 6; Environment; 7; Political; 8; Management; 9; Cultural; 10- Overseas; 11. Security; 12. Scientific; 13. Organizational; 14. Geographical. Finally, the interrelationships between factors and the leveling of poverty-related factors have been examined by presenting an extended structural-comparative model (ISM).

Hajar Jahanshahi, Hamidreza Varesi, Masoud Taghavei,
Volume 24, Issue 74 (9-2024)
Abstract

In fact, the growth of urban consciousness is a wise strategy to drive urban development and control dispersion and drive urban growth toward sustainability. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the rate of Bushehr city area in terms of growth indices. In this regard, this research is a goal-oriented, applied-developmental one, and a combination of documentary, analytical, causal and survey methods. Reliability of the research instrument based on Cronbach's alpha coefficient of the research was 0.749 which is higher than 0.7 and is appropriate. The statistical population of the study is Bushehr inhabitants which according to Cochran formula is estimated 384 samples. According to the statistical population, the questionnaire was distributed randomly among the citizens. In order to compare between two regions, T-test with two independent samples was used for evaluation of urban smart growth in District 1 and 2 of Bushehr. In this test, the first option to be considered is the significance level while the significance level or sig between the two regions is less than 0.05 indicates a significant difference between the two regions and vice versa. Significance level analysis (0.000) shows that there is a significant difference between the two regions in terms of urban smart growth. Meanwhile, the mean of Region 1 with 3.21 was higher than that of Region 2 with 2.86. Although there is a significant difference in Bushehr region in terms of smart growth indices, this difference is not significant and in general Bushehr regions are not in a good position in terms of smart growth indices.

Dana Rahimi, Javad Khoshhal Dastjerdi, Dariush Rahimi,
Volume 24, Issue 74 (9-2024)
Abstract

Among natural disasters, floods have the highest human toll. The economic impacts of floods are greater in developing countries, including Iran, and are particularly severe in the colder months of the year in the west of the country. The purpose of the present study is to analyze the most severe historical synoptic floods that occurred in Karkheh Basin  (1 April, 2019). Descriptive - analytical research method and its environmental approach into circulation. Analysis of synoptic systems of large floods such as the April 12, 2019 floods show that Western Europe's high-pressure systems, Black sea, East of the Caspian and low pressure north of the Red Sea, Eastern Mediterranean in harmony with the high-rise systems of Western Europe, Low Mediterranean East with a temperature drop of about 50 degrees Celsius(The temperature at sea level In the eastern Mediterranean and Red Sea about 25 degrees Celsius and in the middle of the atmosphere -25 degrees Celsius) also the climb Humidity from the Arabian Sea, North Indian Ocean, Red Sea, Oman Sea and Persian Gulf and Along with Mid-width cold air loss On the area and the establishment of the Polar jet stream) Core up to 70 m(And the establishment of the front jet stream And positive rotation area On the area shows the structure of the synoptic systems causing the flood in the area.
Farzad Karami, Hamid Barghi, Yousof Ghanbari,
Volume 24, Issue 75 (12-2024)
Abstract

Good governance, having the most important principles and criteria for public participation, accountability, accountability, centralism, transparency, efficiency and effectiveness, justice and equality, consensus and legitimacy is one of the new management approaches and new approaches to development and poverty reduction, especially poverty. This study aimed was to conduct a comparative analysis of the goog governance model in rural areas with an emphasis on the villages of the central part of Poldakhtar and Mosian section of Dehloran. The statistical population of the study, according to Cochran's formula, is 284 heads of households living in the villages of the two central parts and Mosian. Inferential data analysis was performed using t-test, and the sample villages were ranked in terms of rural governance status using The Topsis method. The results obtained from The Topsis method show that the governance situation in Mosian section of Dehloran Township is better than the central part of Poldakhtar Township, and the one sample t-test showed that the average of all components of rural good governance is above average and their significance level is an amount less than 0.05. The results of Levin test also show that there is a significant difference between the two central parts and Mosian regarding governance and its components, apart from responsibility (±1/96). Furthermore, In Mosian section, the average components (participation, accountability, and transparency) were higher than the central part of Poldakhtar Township and in the components (legality, collective agreement, justice, efficiency, and effectiveness) were less than the central part of Poldakhtar Township.
Hamed Heidari, Darush Yarahmadi, Hamid Mirhashemi,
Volume 24, Issue 75 (12-2024)
Abstract

Human interventions in natural areas as a change in land use have led to a domino effect of anomalies and then environmental hazards. These extensive and cumulative changes in land cover and land use have manifested themselves in the form of anomalies such as the formation of severe runoff, soil erosion, the spread of desertification, and salinization of the soil. The main purpose of this study is to reveal the temperature inductions of the land cover structure of Lorestan province and to analyze the effect of land use changes on the temperature structure of the province. In this regard, the data of land cover classes of MCD12Q2 composite product and ground temperature of MOD11A2 product of MODIS sensor were used. Also, in order to detect the temperature inductions of each land cover during the hot and cold seasons, cross-analysis matrix (CTM) technique was used. The results showed that in general in Lorestan province 5 cover classes including: forest lands, pastures, agricultural lands, constructed lands and barren lands could be detected. The results of cross-matrix analysis showed that in hot and cold seasons, forest cover (IGBP code 5) with a temperature of 48 ° C and urban and residential land cover (IGBP code 13) with a temperature of 16 ° C as the hottest land use, respectively. They count. In addition, it was observed that the thermal inductions of land cover in the warm season are minimized and there is no significant difference between the temperature structure of land cover classes; But in the cold season, the thermal impulses of land cover are more pronounced. The results of analysis of variance test showed that in the cold period of the year, unlike the warm period of the year, different land cover classes; Significantly (Sig = 0.026) has created different thermal impressions in the province. Scheffe's post hoc analysis indicated that this was the difference between rangeland cover classes and billet up cover.
Mr Syrous Ahmadi Nohdani, Mr Aziz Nasirzade, Miss Reyhane Salehabadi,
Volume 25, Issue 76 (3-2025)
Abstract

When empires and great nations decline, there are many reasons why there is a connection between them. Empire is considered as a regulating power in the world that by studying history, one can discover the existence of several important empires in different eras. Given that empire is related to geopolitical knowledge and its constituent concepts (power, politics and space), it can be studied and explored from this perspective. The purpose of this study is a geopolitical analysis of the collapse of empires. This descriptive-analytical study uses the field method to investigate the geopolitical factors of the collapse of empires (Persia, Rome, Byzantium, Ottoman, British, Russian, Spanish and Arab). The statistical population is 50 experts in the field of geopolitical studies. To test the conceptual model of the research, Demetel method has been used. Findings show that variables such as incompetence and lust of rulers, collapse of the domestic economy, increase and corruption of the male government, oppression and slavery, internal riots, etc. show high interaction and strong systemic relationship with other variables. That is, as long as a country has faced these challenges in terms of manpower and governance, it has not been able to survive in the face of other problems caused by these factors, and these factors have led to crises and the collapse of the empire.
Mrs Elham Zamani, Dr Behshid Hosseini, Dr Hossein Zabihi,
Volume 25, Issue 76 (3-2025)
Abstract

The analysis and evaluation of rural housing texture requires a wide range of effective factors, environmental and ecological factors are one of the important factors. Sub-climates and so on are among the factors affecting the texture of rural housing. In order to understand the environmental factors and the context of a villagechr('39')s mountainous habitat, the need for long distances and precise manual harvesting requires specific difficulties, including distance, time, cost, and ultimately uncertainty. It brings the quality of the final harvest. On the other hand, due to the increasing trend of rural housing development in recent decades and the lack of coordination of new tissues in terms of density with previous ones, it shows the indifference of these housing to the former housing and the environmental context of the villages. Today, new computational and numerical tools in architecture, with the advent of advanced mathematical knowledge in the field of architecture, have brought new dimensions to this field. Will provide. The main purpose of the present study is to investigate the effect of green and dry tissue densities as natural factors on the density of densely populated villages in different climates. This in addition to identifying the density of village textures by emphasizing the comparison of parameters will illuminate new dimensions in the context of village stairs. The simulation analysis tool is a densitometry algorithm based on aerial maps, written by the research authors. The algorithm based on negated aerial maps has the ability to detect natural tissue density in the context of village formation and residential texture. This will reduce the need for physical presence and improve the accuracy of outputs in the analysis of village texture, as well as parameter identification. , The condensation pattern of previous generations into the new generation of housing Will provide a star.

Reza Soltanmaleki, Masoud Elahi, Zohreh Davodpour,
Volume 25, Issue 76 (3-2025)
Abstract

Idealism for living in the city requires the creation of an infrastructure and platform that takes into account all the stakeholders of the city, including managers, planners and citizens. This is objectified in the form of the idea of ​​the right to the city in cities. However, this issue can be realized in small cities with more difficult conditions. Based on this, this research seeks to present a model of the realization of the right to the city based on the network analysis process in the raw-towns of the west of Mazandaran. The current research is considered as applied research. The statistical population in this research was formed by urban experts (selecting 25 samples). In order to collect information, in addition to field observations, the basic maps of the country's mapping organization and the collection of studies on the three cities of Baldeh, Kojur and Pol have been used. Analytical Network Process method has been used to process and analyze the data and finally it has led to the extraction of balanced supermatrix from Super Decision software, which after performing various steps, the final priority of indicators and options to realize the right He has won the city. The results of the network analysis of the dimensions of the realization of the right to the city in the western cities of Mazandaran province show that among the dimensions of the realization of the right to the city in the western cities of Mazandaran province, the physical-biological dimension with a weight of (0.1970) It has the most weight and importance. At the same time, economic (0.1725) and social and cultural dimensions with final weight (0.0847) are in the next ranks. At the same time, among the criteria for the realization of the right to the city in the western cities of Mazandaran province, the criterion of the right to assign the city to itself with weight (0.1461), the criterion of environmental rights with weight (0.0943), and the criterion of the right to livelihood and sustainability The economy of the city with a weight of (0.0840) has the most importance.
 

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