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Showing 35 results for Climate Chang
Mohammadreza Goodarzi, Atiyeh Fatehifar,
Volume 19, Issue 53 (6-2019)
Volume 19, Issue 53 (6-2019)
Abstract
In the present time, with the increase of industrial activities and the neglected environmental issues, the effects of climate change have become more evident and poses this phenomenon as a global difficult. Increasing the probability of occurrence of extreme climatic events such as flood and increasing the frequency and intensity of the effects of climate change. The northwest of the country is one of the most vulnerable areas of the country due to its semi-arid and mountainous climates and high rainfall variability. Therefore, zoning due to climate change is essential. Therefore, in this study, in order to investigate the risk of flood in the Azarshahr basin, due to climate change, using the CanESM2 general circulation model under RCP8.5 scenarios negativity according to the assessment report fifth IPCC, rainfall and temperature variables were down scaling by Statistical down scaling model (SDSM). Then,with hydrological model SWAT the daily runoff, the basin map and the lines of the canals are achieved. The results of the evaluation of the SDSM model with a coefficient of determination and Nash-Sutcliff 0.95 on average represent the good performance of the model in the down scaling of large scale data. The results show an increase of 0.23 ° C and 4.53% rainfall and maximum discharge. The basin is zoned with the combination of the maximum mean discharge map, the coefficient and distance from the river with the AHP approach. Due to the zoning they are 41.55% of the area of the basin, at very low and low risk, 27.23% at average risk and 31.2% at high and very high risk. Also, with the final map, it became clear that the mid-basin had a high risk due to its prerequisite conditions and that it needed to carry out managerial actions.
Dr. Ebrahim Fattahi, Shookat Moghimi,
Volume 19, Issue 54 (9-2019)
Volume 19, Issue 54 (9-2019)
Abstract
In this study in order to monitor snow cover, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) optical images were used, while for detection of snow covered areas, the snow index-NDSI, was applied. The results showed - according to the climatic conditions of the region- during the following months: December, January, February and March, most of the area is covered by snow and the maximum extent of snow cover occurred in January. In West Azerbaijan province there is found a negative trend of snow cover with a drastically reduction in January, as well as the provinces East Azerbaijan and Ardebil showed the decreasing of snow cover in this month. The results of this study show that, changes in snow cover imply a rise in temperature in this region leading to the reduction of snow cover in January. This trend represents global warming and climate change impacts on snow cover in the study area. Investigation of extreme indices confirms the assumption that by taking temperature increase into consideration, regional winter precipitation pattern has been changed from snow to rain, causing the reduction of snow storage in the catchment of study area. In addition ,the extreme temperature index study in the period of 2011- 2040 and the baseline by considering climate change approach in North West of Iran by using outputs of general circulation models under A2 scenario and downscaling models LARS-WG indicates the number of frost days or the number of icy days decreased compared to the baseline which is not unexpected according to reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as well as several studies confirmed global warming. Moreover, indices such as growth period increased, while diurnal temperature variation decreased compared to the baseline confirming snow cover reduction in the region as a threat of snow storage in the region.
Morad Kaviani Rad, Meysam Toulabi Nejad, Farid Rezaei,
Volume 20, Issue 57 (6-2020)
Volume 20, Issue 57 (6-2020)
Abstract
The purpose of the present study is to investigate the effects of climate change on the border security of Thalassa Babajani villages. The study area consists of 11 villages of Salas Babajani city with a population of over 2500 people. 333 questionnaires were designed using Cochran formula. The research method was a descriptive-analytic and statistical questionnaire. The results showed that the impacts of climate change were firstly on food security and consequently security in the border villages of Thales Babajani so that most of the population in the study area were concerned about climate change such as flood and drought. Forced to change their livelihoods due to lack of food. The results also showed that with climate change, some former farmers have moved to their village boundaries for daily livelihoods due to climate change and food scarcity, which could in the future be the third border region and its villages. Serious challenges lead to insecurity. Because these people will face the same dangers as engaging in border guards between the two countries, Iran will result in the risk of death for those who were once farmers or ranchers and the security of the area would also be compromised.
Masoud Yazdanpanah, Tahereh Zobeidi, Hajar Zaery,
Volume 20, Issue 58 (9-2020)
Volume 20, Issue 58 (9-2020)
Abstract
Greenhouse emissions from agricultural as a consequence of human activities are causing climate change. Small changes in agricultural practices have a large potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Intention of Agriculture Experts in order to mitigation climate change Can play an important role in finding appropriate solutions for each region in climate change mitigation and deliver them to their farmers. However Intentions to take mitigation actions are, most likely, influenced by a range of factors. The purpose of this study was to investigate of factors influencing on Agriculture Experts in order to mitigation greenhouse gases. This research in terms of purpose is an applied research and in terms of methodology is survey research. The statistical population of this research consisted of 520 Agriculture Experts in Khuzestan Province. A sample of 320 persons was selected through Random Stratified Sampling method. The survey instrument was a questionnaire which its validity confirmed by experts. The reliability of the questionnaire using Cronbach's alpha coefficient (α= 0/67-0/87) has been approved. Our analysis reveal, direct experience were predictors of risk perception, self-efficacy and environmental attitude. The changes in self-efficacy and environmental attitude were also strong predictors of changes in intention. The variables of self-efficacy and environmental attitude could predict 61 percent of variations in willingness to mitigating climate change. Therefore experience indirectly affected on the mitigation intention. Lastly we provide recommendations on how these findings can be used to climate change mitigation.
Dr. Sadegh Karami,
Volume 20, Issue 59 (12-2020)
Volume 20, Issue 59 (12-2020)
Abstract
Importance of climate change is global. This issue to some extent has been out of human control. Human beings can only provide security and the community with knowledge and management against its negative consequences. On the basis of this research, the present paper analyzes the impact of climate change on Iran, on a small scale and applied to the central catchment area. The findings of the research indicate that climate change has shown the geographic region of Iran in terms of changing the rainfall pattern, decreasing precipitation and increasing its temperature. In the next step, these cases resulted in excessive withdrawal of groundwater aquifers and it has reduced the quality of underground water. This chain has led to the design of inter-basin water transmission projects, which is at least the result of the cycle of social tensions that has occurred in recent years. Considering the geographical extent of the basin and its belonging to one of the most frequent aspects of Iran's civilization, the set of consequences of climate change in the central catchment area, in addition to its impact on various social, political, economic and environmental layers, also has several scale effects. And its destructive effects go beyond national scale and to an extent beyond the scope of Iranian culture. In this regard, the research findings indicate that climate change in the central watershed is influential in many aspects of society and the country, so that if the current process continues, the current Iranian civilization will face a strategic challenge. To this end, at the end of the research, good water governance, as the best way to confront and control the negative consequences of climate change on the central catchment area, and Iran in general, has been argued.
Mojtaba Shahnazari, Zahra Hejazizadeh, Mohammad Saligheh,
Volume 20, Issue 59 (12-2020)
Volume 20, Issue 59 (12-2020)
Abstract
Abstract
In this research, while studying climate conditions in the current period and analyzing changes in temperature, precipitation level, and the sunlight received, current conditions were also analyzed based on daily data from synoptic stations in the region, which had meteorological data recorded for at least 30 years. Given the environmental conditions necessary for the growth of rice, the availability of its phenological data, its high-low temperature thresholds, the Degree Day systems needed for the completion of its life cycle, and the phenological processes related to its economic production, a suitable agricultural calendar was specified. During the March-July period, this calendar showed variations in different provinces. Based on the current temperature conditions and the probable continued warming trend of the planet in the decades to come, nwoDscale was applied to the output from the atmospheric general circulation model MCdaH3 under scenario using LARS-WG5 model. In this study, years between 1969 and 1990 were used as the base period, while years between 2046 and 2065 were studied as the future period. Temperature and precipitation conditions for the future period were simulated. Obtained output was then studied and compared with temperature conditions that were suitable for the plant to grow in the region. With some differences, results showed that the agricultural calendar for rice in Gilan and Mazandaran provinces will shift to winter. Given the different temperature conditions of Golestan province, its agricultural calendar will shift to spring.
Mr Zahra Sadat Jalali Chimeh, Dr Amir Gandomkar, Dr Morteza Khodagholi, Dr Hossein Battoli,
Volume 21, Issue 62 (9-2021)
Volume 21, Issue 62 (9-2021)
Abstract
Agriculture, as one of the most important human economic activities, is closely related to the climatic conditions, and any changes in the climatic conditions can have dramatic changes in agriculture. The main objective of this study is to investigate the spatial changes of the Agro Climatic Feasibility Rosa damascena mill Cultivation in Climate change Condition in northern part of Isfahan province including Kashan, Natanz, Ardestan and Aran Bidgol, under the four carbon dioxide emission pathways (RCPs)of 2050. Two groups of factors involved in agroclimatic feasibility of Rosa damascena mill cultivation including environmental factors (topography, soil) and climatic factors were extracted. Based on these factors, suitable zones of Rosa damascena mill cultivation, were identify using Fuzzy gamma function. In the next step, by simulating the climatic elements of the region in 2050, under the four carbon dioxide emission pathways, the fifth report of the IPCC, replacing the simulated climatic variables of 2050 under the four lines, by re-implementing the fuzzy gamma function, favorable areas of cultivation Rosa damascena mill was identified in each region in each scenario. In the next step, by simulating the climatic elements of the region in 2050, under the four carbon dioxide emission pathways, the fifth report of the IPCC, replacing the simulated climatic variables of 2050 under the four lines, by re-implementing the fuzzy gamma function, favorable areas of cultivation The Rosa damascena mill was identified in each region in each scenario. The results showed that in the base period climate, about 0.33% of the area (9025 km2) has a climate suitable for cultivating Rosa damascena mill and more than 67% of the area of the region has a weak talent. The results of the simulation of the climatic conditions of 2050 under four carbon dioxide emission lines indicate that, under all scenarios, favorable areas for cultivating Rosa damascena mill in the studied area have increased. In the trajectory of 8/8 release, the highest class of agro-colliery was the cultivation of the flowers of Mohammadi gardens
Anoshiravan Ravand, Shahriar Khaledi, Davod Hasanabadi,
Volume 21, Issue 63 (12-2021)
Volume 21, Issue 63 (12-2021)
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to determine and predict the effects of climate change on architecture using climate models. By clarifying the consequences of the impact of urban architecture on climate change while using the data of surrounding stations with library and field data methods. The climatic parameters of precipitation, temperature and relative humidity of the synoptic station of Miyaneh city during a full period of 32 years (2018-1987) and the possibility of climate change with the models in this city were examined and after obtaining the relevant data Climate change was predicted for the next 84 years through the GCM and SDSM microscale and the AR4 (2007) - HADCM3 (Run 1) - SR-A2 scenarios. In order to evaluate the effects of climate change on the comfort climate of the region, among the bioclimatic models used, the Tarjong model was considered for two periods of 16 and 42 years. In the next 84 years, compared to the last 32 years, the cold months of May, June, July and August will turn into pleasant heat, and in September, the heat will have a great impact on the skin, which indicates a warm climate in the next 84 years. Architectures must be considered.
Ali Saadat, Mohamad Saligheh, Mohamadhosin Nassrzadeh,
Volume 21, Issue 63 (12-2021)
Volume 21, Issue 63 (12-2021)
Abstract
The goal of this research is studying the effect of recent climate changes, espeeially heat rise on the amount of effective rainfall in the lorestan peovince. Effective rainfall is the amount of fall which, after evaporation, is absorbed in the ground. in the ground.in USDA method and the us agriculture, the amount of rain abstorbed in a growth perlod of a plant and available for its consumption is called effective raifoll. The results showed that the amouent of rainfall in the first period is more than that of the second. The frequency of raining days got reduced in the after-climate- change period. Heat got increased in the second period. Evaporation was more in the second period. Relation humidity got decreased in the second compared to the first period, and wind speed increased by studying the process of the data changes, it became evident that climate change leads to the increased inconsistent rainfalls in the studied climate variables indicate that under the effect of climate change , Based on Vibol method, droughts caused by effective rainfalls were calculated, and the probability of effective rainfalls in 5 time periods was accounted for. It was shown that in the years 1369 to 1396, effective rainfall in the region was scarce, so it was very influential. With Dobif Model, effective rainfall was analyzed, and years with the least effective rainfall for dry farming with positive signal, that is, appropriate conditions, and negative, that is, inappropriate conditions were recorded. Based on linear coefficient, rainfall trends in the three stations of Khorramabad, Aligudarz and Borujerd. Geographical distribution analysis of effective rainfall showed that in the south and south-east of the province, the coefficient of effective rainfall was more than the rest of the province. This coefficient was decreasing when it comes to the south-west of the province. Effective rainfall decrease was more due to increasing evaporation happening in this part. the effective rainfall in the studied region got decreased, therefore, preserving underground water resources, on which natural life depend, should be considered more than ever.
Mahnaz Aziz Ebrahim, Mohammad Saligheh, Mohammad Hossein Nassrzadeh, Bohlol Alijani,
Volume 22, Issue 64 (3-2022)
Volume 22, Issue 64 (3-2022)
Abstract
In this research, we are trying to determine the “beginning time” as well as the “end” of the climatic seasons; and we will focus on identifying the displacement of these dates, which is influenced by the “climate changes” and “descriptionAbstract
The purpose of this study is to investigate possible changes and displacements in Iran's climatic seasons due to climate change. To do this, temperature, relative humidity, water vapor, wind and cloud data for 36 stations were received from the Meteorological Agency over 40 years. The data were divided into two 20-year series to allow comparison. Daily temperature data for each clustering time series were determined, then by considering 7-day sequences, the beginning and end of the seasons. The designated times were tested using the Rayman model. The results of comparing the seasons in the two time series indicated that in all stations, changes in climatic seasons occurred from Insignificant to significant. Climatic seasons in Iran do not correspond to calendar seasons, and climate change, especially temperature changes in recent decades, has caused the seasons to shift and shorten and lengthen. Although the beginning and end of the seasons do not generally correspond to their calendar dates, most of the days of these seasons occur in its calendar periods. The changes that have taken place have not only affected the length of the seasons, and these shifts have also changed the quality of the natural seasons.
Keywords: Climate change, natural seasons, cluster analysis, Rayman model of the qualitative conditions” created in them, compared to the past climatic periods. “Meteorological Organization” data has been used in this research. Forty years of received data, was divided into two groups of 20. Applying SPSS, each group was divided into four stages representing each seasons. From these stages, the beginning time and the end of seasons were determined and the accuracy of the obtained dates was controlled with the comfort indicators of the Rayman model. The results of the comparison of seasons in two time series indicated that, the changes occurred in natural seasons from an almost non-existent one in all stations. Climatic seasons in Iran are not compatible with the summer season and climate change, especially the change in temperature in recent decades, has caused changes and shortening of seasons. Most of the days in these seasons occur during its monthly periods, although the beginning and end of the seasons generally do not match their calendar dates. Changes have not only affected the duration of the season, and these changes have also led to a change in the natural quality of the season.
The purpose of this study is to investigate possible changes and displacements in Iran's climatic seasons due to climate change. To do this, temperature, relative humidity, water vapor, wind and cloud data for 36 stations were received from the Meteorological Agency over 40 years. The data were divided into two 20-year series to allow comparison. Daily temperature data for each clustering time series were determined, then by considering 7-day sequences, the beginning and end of the seasons. The designated times were tested using the Rayman model. The results of comparing the seasons in the two time series indicated that in all stations, changes in climatic seasons occurred from Insignificant to significant. Climatic seasons in Iran do not correspond to calendar seasons, and climate change, especially temperature changes in recent decades, has caused the seasons to shift and shorten and lengthen. Although the beginning and end of the seasons do not generally correspond to their calendar dates, most of the days of these seasons occur in its calendar periods. The changes that have taken place have not only affected the length of the seasons, and these shifts have also changed the quality of the natural seasons.
Keywords: Climate change, natural seasons, cluster analysis, Rayman model of the qualitative conditions” created in them, compared to the past climatic periods. “Meteorological Organization” data has been used in this research. Forty years of received data, was divided into two groups of 20. Applying SPSS, each group was divided into four stages representing each seasons. From these stages, the beginning time and the end of seasons were determined and the accuracy of the obtained dates was controlled with the comfort indicators of the Rayman model. The results of the comparison of seasons in two time series indicated that, the changes occurred in natural seasons from an almost non-existent one in all stations. Climatic seasons in Iran are not compatible with the summer season and climate change, especially the change in temperature in recent decades, has caused changes and shortening of seasons. Most of the days in these seasons occur during its monthly periods, although the beginning and end of the seasons generally do not match their calendar dates. Changes have not only affected the duration of the season, and these changes have also led to a change in the natural quality of the season.
Dr Behzad Amraei,
Volume 22, Issue 64 (3-2022)
Volume 22, Issue 64 (3-2022)
Abstract
Climate change is one of the most important challenges facing water resources management, including surface water and groundwater. The main purpose of this research is to detect the effect of droughts caused by the change in groundwater resources in Birjand plain. In this regard, using two nonparametric trend tests, the SENS and MAN-Kendal gradient estimates to detect the process of underground water level in Birjand city during the statistical period of 1370-1395 according to the statistics of the field of 47 areas of observation area (census water resources) Wentified. Using Pearson correlation matrix, correlation between climatic elements (Birjand station) temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration and potential transpiration were calculated with the level of local city of Birjand, and based on a multivariate regression model for modeling the annual time series at the level of confidence level of 95 / 0 was developed. Climatic factors of 2080-2065 using the Output of the HADGEM2-ES model through the LARS-WG exponential model for the position of the Birjand station under two scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 were simulated and based on the regression model, the surface of the water Birjand city was simulated. The results indicated that firstly, in the base period (1370-1395), the surface of water in the area with an annual gradient of 47 centimeters per year was reduced. The correlation analysis indicated that three elements of rainfall, temperature and evapotranspiration were modeled in a linear composition of 75% of the annual changes in groundwater. The results of the microsterge model implemented on HADGEM2-ES data indicate that during the period 2035-2065 under both the scenario, groundwater level between 10 and 13 meters lower than the base period, which resulted from an increase in evapotranspiration And consequently, rainfall will be effective.
Mrs Shahrbanoo Ghanbari Adivi, Dr Morteza Khodagholi, Dr Amir Gandomkar,
Volume 22, Issue 66 (9-2022)
Volume 22, Issue 66 (9-2022)
Abstract
The main purpose of this research is to test the agglium of Hormozgan province for the development and development of aloe vera plant cultivars in the base period and the period of change. In this regard, the influential data in the various stages of the aloe vera plant, including the minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation, as climatic agents and height variables, gradients, direction of gradient, soil, as stable elements in the evaluation of aloe vera cultivation areas were used. The multidimensional decision-making technique in the GIS environment was used using fuzzy gamma function for interruption and eventually identifying appropriate arenas for aloe vera plant. The role of climatic changes in two levels of alteration of B1 and A2 was investigated to evaluate changes in Aloe Vera cultivation agriculum in Hormozan province. The results of the implementation of the Fuzzy Gama integration function in Hormozgan province showed that in the base period, 0.35 of the area of the province has good and excellent culture for this plant. These areas are generally consistent with the lowlands of the southern sections of the southern province and are consistent with the soils with tissue and depth and drainage, namely, the arid soils of Sevil and anti-Seville, while in the northern parts of the province, the supply factor, supply The need for an aloe vera plant, tolerance in the year and nightly, the product performance is very weak and the development of aloe vera farms in these areas is not recommended. In the simulated climatic conditions for 2070 under the 2ndretic scenarios, aloe vera arenas will have relatively significant changes compared to the climate of the base period, so that the most variations related to the A2 scenario, in which poorly functional floors are lacking. And moderate culture capabilities have been exposed to an area of 30 to 40 percent, while the two floors of the agricultiva capability and good culture capabilities, under the same system, will show an increase of 20 to 40 percent.
Neamatallah Safarzaei, Alireza Entezari, Mokhtar Karami, Gholamali Khammar,
Volume 22, Issue 66 (9-2022)
Volume 22, Issue 66 (9-2022)
Abstract
Today climate change cause increase in concentration of greenhouse gases has been cause increase extreme events and atmospheric hazards. goal of this research, analyze and review climate future is for atmospheric hazards in sistan region. In this study, to simulate minimum and maximum temperature data used from model data CanESM2 under three scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) with SDSM statistical scrolling and to simulate rainfall data from the Hadcm3 model under scenarios (A1B, A2, B1) with statistical scrolling LARS-WG. For this purpose, after calibration, validation and data modeling at the selected station, the performance of the model from the viewpoint of the compliance of the base temperature data (1984-2005) and rainfall (1986-2015) with simulation values (2020-2039) evaluated at a significant level of confidence. To adapt base data to simulated data Used of the three criteria root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R2) and mean squared error (MSE). According to simulated data were examined four important atmospheric hazard frost, heat waves, extreme precipitation and drought. The results showed that heat waves and drought in the future are serious threats in the region So that in 2021, under release scenario RCP 2.6, Predicted 32 heat waves and the study area will experience more than five heat waves in the year. In addition, most frequent drought forecast in 2020, under release scenario A1B. Extreme precipitation in some years under scenario B1 can be significant threat in the region. Intensity and abundance annual frost under release scenario RCP2.6 more than other scenarios and lower relative to investigated atmospheric threats.
D.r Hossein Jahantigh, Amir Bakhshi, Rezvan Ghorbani Salkhord,
Volume 22, Issue 67 (12-2022)
Volume 22, Issue 67 (12-2022)
Abstract
Identifying barriers and adaptation requirements is crucial for the successful implementation of climate change adaptation practices at the local level, especially in mountainous rural communities with limited local resources and technology. Due to the importance of this issue, in the present study, the barriers and requirements for adaptation to climate change in mountainous villages were investigated. The present research is descriptive-analytical in terms of purpose and method. The data collection tool was a questionnaire, free interview and observation of the researcher from the study area. The statistical population of rural households is Papi section of Khorramabad city (N = 2346). Using Cochranchr('39')s formula and sampling method, 330 households were selected as a sample. To analyze the data, descriptive statistics and exponential exploratory co-integration rank test (Johansen method) were used. The results showed that farmers in the mountainous villages of the study area face several adaptation barriers that are more serious institutional, normative, technological and information and cognitive barriers. Given that adaptation conditions are an important factor in reducing or eliminating adaptation barriers and improving farmerschr('39') adaptation capacity to climate change, local economic development, local infrastructure, production technology, and the granting of micro-credentials are the most prominent adaptation requirements in these were the grounds. In addition, due to the effective role of government, cooperatives and villagers themselves in rural development, a rational adaptation framework for selecting optimal adaptation strategies in cooperation with these three, as appropriate regional adaptation measures and policies for research proposals was presented.
Dr Bromand Salahi, Vahid Safarian Zangir,
Volume 23, Issue 68 (3-2023)
Volume 23, Issue 68 (3-2023)
Abstract
Global warming and temperature rise will have many effects on different sectors, including agriculture, the warming of the earth will increase the rate of evaporation, and consequently the increase in the demand for agricultural products will increase. In this study, in order to monitor the effect of global warming on Mughan Plain wheat, using the LARS-WG model as a relatively inexpensive and accurate instrument for producing climate multi-yearly climate change scenarios On a daily basis, In Ardabil province, Germi Station was selected as the representative of the three stations in the study area due to the data in the appropriate statistical period. In the present study, to monitor the effect of global warming on precipitation fluctuations, as well as in the production and cultivation of wheat crop in Moghan plain, the LARS-WG model and the HADCM3 climate model output under A1B scenario as well as climate data (minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation and Daily Sunshine) The Germys station was used over a 14 year period (2004-2007).The results of the research show that by comparing the monthly mean of these parameters, this result was obtained that at confidence level 1 there is not a significant difference between the simulation data from the model and observational data in the base period and the mean The climatic parameters of the data obtained from the model and the actual data are similar and there is a high correlation between them. Finally, by comparing observational monthly meanings and modeling of climatic elements of precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures and sunshine were shown using statistical parameters RMSE, MAE, NA and R2 The model (LARS-WG5) is used to accurately simulate daily data in the parameters of the Mughan Plain, Ardebil province. The results of this study showed that the average decrease in yield of irrigated wheat and the decrease of its production in the study area could be due to the decrease of precipitation and the increase of the regional temperature which is due to global warming.
Zahra Hejazizadeh, Sharifeh Zarei, ,
Volume 23, Issue 69 (6-2023)
Volume 23, Issue 69 (6-2023)
Abstract
Abstract
In recent years, attention has been paid to climate change, which could be the result of economic, social, and financial losses associated with extreme weather events. The purpose of this study is to investigate the variation of extreme temperature and precipitation in Kurdistan province. For this purpose, daily rainfall data, minimum temperature and maximum temperature of 6 stations were used during the statistical period (1990-1990). And their changes during the period (2041-2060) using the universal HadGEM2 model under two scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 and the LARS-WG6 statistical downscaling were investigated. In order to study the trend of climatic extreme indexes, rainfall and temperature indices were analyzed using RClimdex software. The results showed that during the period (2016-1990), hot extreme indicators have a positive and incremental trend. This trend is significant for the "number of summer days" and "maximum monthly of maximum daily temperature" indicators. This is while the cold extreme indexes had a decreasing and negative trend. This trend was significant only for the "cold days" index. Extreme precipitation in Kurdistan province has a negative trend in most stations. ،this trend is significant at most stations, that indicates a reduction in the severity, duration and frequency of precipitation during the study period. The results of the climate change outlook also indicate that the temperature will increase over the next period and rainfall will decrease.
Mr Jaefar Derakhshi, Dr Behroz Sobhani, Dr Saeed Jahanbakhsh,
Volume 24, Issue 72 (3-2024)
Volume 24, Issue 72 (3-2024)
Abstract
In this study, the prediction of precipitation and temperature values using the general atmospheric circulation models during 1964-2005 is investigated. Climatic data including daily values of total precipitation and mean temperature were obtained from the Iranian Meteorological Organization. Considering the climate change scenarios RCP4.5, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 for the coming period 2010-2100 were evaluated under the canESM2 climate change model of Aharchai Basin. Due to the low accuracy of the general circulation models, the SDSM4.2 miniaturization model was used and the changes in precipitation and mean temperature parameters were simulated for future time periods. In this study, to calibrate the SDSM model, among the 26 large scale climate parameters (NCEP), on average, 3 parameters have the highest correlation with the mean temperature and 5 parameters have the highest correlation with the average precipitation in the Aharchai Basin. The results of climatic parameters prediction showed that simulation of climatic parameters mean temperature was performed with higher accuracy than mean precipitation values. The reason is that the precipitation data are not normal and unconditional. The results show that the basin temperature averaged more during the period 2070-2099 under the scenario RCP8.5 than the observations period of 1964-2005 and the basin precipitation during the period 2070-2099 under the scenario RCP2.6 showed the highest increase in the entire study period.
Prospective of climate change impact on water resources and sugar beet yield in the Urmia Lake basin
Mrs Somayeh Naderi, Prof. Bohloul Alijani, Prof. Zahra Hedjazizadeh, Dr. Hasan Heidari, Dr. Karim Abbaspour,
Volume 24, Issue 73 (6-2024)
Volume 24, Issue 73 (6-2024)
Abstract
Evidence suggests that climate change will create uncertain regional agricultural production stability in the coming decades. This research investigated the impact of climate change on hydrology and sugar beet yield as one of the main crops in the Urmia lake basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). To address this, a baseline SWAT model was setup for 1986-2014. Afterward, the output was calibrated (1989-2004) and validated (2005-2014) in the SWAT-CUP software using the SUFI2 algorithm to simulate streamflow of 23 gauging stations and crop yield. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency was 0.43 and 0.53 for calibration and validation periods, sequentially. The Percent Bias was 45% and 16% for calibration and validation periods, respectively. As well as the agreement indices of 0.71 and the little Percent Bias (-6% to 10%) for crop production, verified the model's efficiency. The next step was downscaling and bias-correction of the precipitation and temperature data received from 3 climate models, namely GFDL, HadGEM2, and IPSL under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 using CCT program. Then, the downscaled data were fed to SWAT, and Finally, hydrological fluxes and sugar beet yield were estimated for 2021-2050. Despite a dispersion of precipitation changes ranging from -12% to +35% in most scenarios, results highlight the pivotal role that the warmer temperature (+2.7°C) increases evaporation, resulting in sharpened pressure on water resources and runoff, especially, at the beginning of crop growth season. Finally, the negative impacts on crop productivity (-45%) is not unexpected. This means that sugar beet may suffer from climate change impacts, and the production of this plant will change over the next period in this region.
Keywords: Climate Change, Sugar Beet, Urmia Lake Basin, Sensitivity Analysis, SWAT.
Ms Parisa Ghorbani Sepehr, Dr Zaki Yashar, Dr Seyed Abbas Ahmadi,
Volume 24, Issue 75 (12-2024)
Volume 24, Issue 75 (12-2024)
Abstract
Due to its location in low latitudes, Iran is among the countries that has not been spared from the security consequences of climate change. The present study seeks to answer two questions: 1) What are the security consequences of climate change on Iran and which components have the greatest impact on Iran? 2) Which of the pillars of good governance as a solution has the greatest impact on reducing the effects of climate change on Iran?
In this study, the study population is elites and experts familiar with the subject of the study, 100 of whom were selected for snowball sampling and a researcher-developed questionnaire was used to collect data. Data were evaluated using SPSS and MINITAB software. The results of the studies according to the obtained P-value which is equal to 0.000 and is less than 0.05 alpha, indicate the difference between the natural and human consequences of climate change in Iran. The results of the Tukey test indicate that the natural consequences of climate change with an average of 4.0584 are in group A and the human consequences with an average of 3.4460 are in group B. Also, the results of Friedman test on the effect of good governance in controlling and reducing the security consequences of climate change in Iran show that accountability with an average of 5.79 in the first place, rule of law with an average of 5.62 in the second place. and accountability of officials with an average rating of 5.32 are in third place.
Mohammadsaleh Ekhlasi, Dr. Somayeh Soltani-Gerdefaramarzi, Dr. Abolfazl Azizian, Morteza Gheysouri,
Volume 25, Issue 76 (3-2025)
Volume 25, Issue 76 (3-2025)
Abstract
In this research, the effect of climate change on the amount of virtual water of some strategic crops was investigated in Kerman province for future periods. For this purpose, the climatic data of HadCM3 model was used under RCP4.5 radiative forcing scenario. In order to investigate the possibility of producing and simulating meteorological data in the future periods, was applied the LARS-WG microscale-representative model. For the basic period (1991-2011), was done calibration and validation of the model. Through the data of LARS-WG, the amount of precipitation and the maximum and minimum temperature of the selected stations were predicted for the periods of 2011-2070 and compared with the base period. Virtual water amount was calculated for selected crops including alfalfa, barley and wheat. The results of the current research indicate that the phenomenon of climate change significantly affects the evapotranspiration and the performance of the studied crops, and hence it will affect the agricultural water productivity in the future. While the average temperature of the growing season will increase in the future under the influence of climate change, the maximum temperature parameter will be affected by this phenomenon more than the minimum temperature, and parallel to this, the water requirement and plant evaporation-transpiration will increase in this period. Also, the surveys show a decrease in precipitation in the hot seasons and an increase in the cold seasons in all study stations. The amount of virtual water changes obtained for all studied plants is increasing, and this increase for barley and wheat crops shows a greater increase on average in the future period. The biggest increase in the virtual water compared to the base period in Kerman station is related to barley and alfalfa products by at least 30%.
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