Showing 92 results for Development
Dr Bahram Imani, Mrc Roghayyeh Farshi, Mr Reza Hashemi Masoomabad,
Volume 17, Issue 46 (9-2017)
Abstract
In this study, to show the inequality between different cities in Ardebil province, 60 developmental indicators in different sections including health care, social, educational, cultural and infrastructural sections have been analyzed through VIKOR model. Moreover, for data analysis and graph and table representation of data Excel, SPSS, and ARC Map 10.1 software was used. For determining validity of the research indicators, questionnaires were completed by experts (16 experts and professionals in the related area) through AHP model. A survey in 2011 showed that from among 10 cities in Ardabil province, Ardebil city; Serein Germy and Khalkhal; Parsabad, Bilesavar and Namin; Meshginshahr, Nir and Kosar were developed, developing, less developed, and undeveloped areas, respectively. This inequality is the result of environmental, economic and political factors and it also reflects inadequacy of spatial planning, which places Ardabil in its high priority for development. Furthermore, according to the conducted analyses it is concluded that there is an imbalanced regional inequality on city scale in Ardabil province; there is a meaningful and positive relationship between the population of a city and the degree of its development; finally there is a meaningful and positive relationship between the distance from the provincial capital and the degree of its development.
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Volume 17, Issue 46 (9-2017)
Abstract
Today, tourism is the high level of development to the economies of most countries in the world have provided, as the basic unit of economic development is considered. In the meantime, the attributes or characteristics of tourism resources to be able to perform activities of tourism, destination guides. On the other hand Kashan city with a long history and its historical Each year, has attracted many domestic and foreign tourists and tourism at the national level to shine as a city. The purpose of this study was to evaluate indicators of Kashan tourism development strategy based on four criteria: comfort, competitiveness, information technology and communications and tourism management. This research method in terms of purpose and terms of method, is descriptive. The method relies on the harvest field data collection using a questionnaire that has been obtained through Cochran Formula 382.The study group this study included groups of tourists, which is in the research questionnaire, each from each group was given the status of tourism development indicators of in Kashan be determined. After the above steps to classify data using SPSS the software and one-sample t test through the conclusion reached. The city of Kashan in terms of all indicators of tourism development (with the exception of information and communication technologies), as was proper, and in general indicators of tourism development Kashan is higher than the theoretical mean. The relevant authorities in relation to information technology and communication possibilities in the tourist sites should offer new strategies that can obtain the consent of tourists and the proposed strategies were presented.
Hujjat Mirzazadeh, Taher Parizadi,
Volume 18, Issue 50 (3-2018)
Abstract
Introduction and Objectives: Unbalanced distribution facilities and services on Economic, Social and between regions, need to the planning and balanced spatial development the spatial structure of the country is inevitable This study aimed to determine the level development of the provinces of Iran and rank them based on the level of development and different levels of development of the country From 1345 to the present to help make the planning system and national policy has been done.
Methods: This study is based on cognitive research and in terms of the goal of the evaluation research method - comparative. The population according to the latest political divisions of 31 provinces and indexes evaluated 33 indicators in four dimensions (Economic, infrastructure-physical, socio-cultural and health), respectively. For data analysis, factor analysis and cluster analysis techniques were used.
Findings: The results show, between the provinces in terms of development, there are differences and inequalities. So that in Tehran alone during the decades the highest level of development and Sistan and Baluchestan province are the lowest and most disadvantaged. Comparison provinces during different periods of development of the center over the periphery of inequality.
Conclusion: According to the results of research to reduce disparities between provinces The placing of the country due to the talent and potential of each region and prioritizing disadvantage and less developed provinces in the planning of regional demands.
Hassan Afrakhteh, Mohammad Hajipur, Farhad Javan,
Volume 18, Issue 50 (3-2018)
Abstract
The oil has gradually obtained a predominant place in national economy since 1950 and nowadays, is the main important resource securing country financial needs. Two questions are the base of this research regarding contradiction of oil rent and traditional economic sectors including agriculture and livestock rearing which always have been intensified. These two questions are as follows: what are the impacts of oil wealth distribution among different regions on Iran's rural economic structure? What has been the locational-spatial consequences of this oil wealth distribution on agricultural sector as a main element of Iran's rural economic structure? Research required data have collected based on document study on the country during 2006- 2011. Collected data are analyzed based on Shift-Share Analysis and Gibbs- Martin methods. Result show that there have not been any incentive in the local, regional and national management for strengthening rural economic structure using oil wealth. In addition, absence of industrial sector in rural economic structure with emphasis on agricultural sector both from policy making view and credit securing show that there have not been any logical sight on the political economic system facing rural space economy for development.
Farzad Karimi, Mostafa Ahmadvand, Ali Heidari,
Volume 18, Issue 51 (6-2018)
Abstract
This study aims at identifying optimal method for masuring degree and level of development with resprct to models commonly used (Taxonomy, TOPSIS, Moris, SAW, and VIKOR). It is an applied rsearch in terms of the purpose and also is a quantitative research that was carried out in a survey method. Statistical population of the study was the villages in the county with 20 or more households (89 villages). Accordingly, 566 rural households were determined and selected as a sample using Lin sample size table. To collect the data, a questionnaire was used. For determining the content validity of the questionnaire, a factor analysis and for internal consistency reliability, Cronbach's alpha was used. The Cronbach's alpha coefficient (0.561-0.955) indicated the optimality of the questionnaire. Matlab 7.10, Excel2010, SPSS20, and Arc-GIS Softwares were used for modeling the level of rural development in the county. Findings revealed that there was high significant relationship between the methods with regard to their ranking scores. Findings showed that the VIKOR was a suitable and powerful approach to determine level of rural development in the county. In VIKOR, the range of development degree was very high with compaire to other methods. In VIKOR similar to TOPSIS, negative and positive ideals were considered. VIKOR has a differenc with TOPSIS in considering criteria weight, In VIKOR at first, distance of each criterion from ideal was calculated, then the weights were added them. Therfore, in VIKOR against SAW and TOPSIS has a high sensivity to the weights. Furtermore, findings showed that Sarabtaveh, Deh Bare- Aftab Olia, and Tangary with regard to 51 criteria by 0.635, 0.608, and 0.579 scores, respectively were developing villages and Gavbarg, Cheshmeh Tabarghoo, Tal-Gahi with 0.182, 0.201, and 0.233 scores respectively were non-developed villages. Also, there wasn’t any village in level of completely undeveloped, developed and completely developed. Also, approximately half of villages (46.1 percent) with 21.46 percent of the population of the rural region were undeveloped villages. In addition, 69.35 percent of population in villages of the study was in developing stage.
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Volume 19, Issue 52 (3-2019)
Abstract
One of the Challenging problems of Tehran metropolitan region is Air pollution. Suburban expansion in the form of sprawl patterns have created the travels and transportations, due to the dependence on personal vehicles contributes more than 85 percent of creators of air pollution. The article studied the role of transportation in emergence of urban air pollution in Tehran metropolitan region, have population more than 15.98 million. The method of this paper is of analytical and is based on the secondary data and traditions of the Quantitative research methodology. This article have been wrote in the context of Retroductive strategy and meta-analysis method and compositional research traditions. For analysis of suburban spatial transportation have used Raw Data Intra-Urban and suburban Data in 1395 Year And for spatial analysis of air pollution (PM2.5 and PM10), have been used The raw data from sensing stations and Landsat satellite images (OLI) for three selected days in 1392, 1393, and 1395 as survey samples in the ArcGIS software. The research findings indicate that due to the intensity of transportation flows in Tehran metropolitan, the suburb to the suburb, the suburb to the central city (Tehran) and vice versa, Air pollution center Rise cannot be attributed to Tehran alone, as the area of pollutant sources has been distributed within the "Tehran metropolitan region ".So, the amount of spatial correlation between air pollution maps and transportation flow maps in selected days (2 Bahman 1392, 5 Bahman 1393 and Dec. 7, 1395), in all cases indicated high spatial relations (more than 75%), Confirmation the idea of this paper. Analysis of this situation in triple loops also shows that the highest volume of transportation is in the city of Tehran (CBD), suburban and exurban areas, respectively and the distribution pattern and spatial accumulation of pollution are also subject to this situation.
Zahra Tarasi, Hosin Karimzadeh, Mohsen Aghayari Hir,
Volume 19, Issue 54 (9-2019)
Abstract
While women account for about half the population of rural areas, they have always been considered as vulnerable populations of the community. Considering empowerment and its effective factors can increase their participation in livelihoods and increase their ability to help increase their family income. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the factors and drivers that affect the empowerment of rural women. The present research is a descriptive-analytical one. The data gathering tool was a questionnaire and interviewed with rural women in Zanjan. The statistical population includes rural women in Zanjan city (N = 43559). Using Cochran's formula and quotient sampling, 381 women over 20 years old were selected as samples. Data were analyzed using one-sample t-test and binary logistic regression tests. The results showed that among the 29 variables in the study, 14 variables significantly had a significant relationship with the empowerment of rural women in Zanjan. Accordingly, economic factors (0.1171), psychological (0.197) and personal factors (109.10) had the most effects on empowerment of rural women (dependent variable). The results of this study can be used to identify the factors affecting the empowerment of rural women and removing the barriers related to it in the villages of the region and in general in the villages of the country.
Ms Masoumeh Amiribesheli, Mr Hosein Mogtabazadekhanghahi, Mr Yosefali Ziari, Mr Ali Nourikermani,
Volume 19, Issue 54 (9-2019)
Abstract
The urban land management is an l part of the urban management. In some countries such as Iran, there is no integrated urban land management and providing municipal services is assigned to nationwide organisations. This means urban management is offered by the municipality or subsidiaries of the aforementioned organisations such dispersion has occurred during serval decades. It is considered as the roots of organizatinal inefficiencies ( offocial and financial corruption is regarded as basic reasin for many crimes) and the origin or many conflicts between people and organizations(judicial) To do so, it follows an applied analytical descriptive approach. To analyse the data, mathematical and statistical methods were applied using Excel and SPSS. Moreover, the GIS was used for visualisation and adaptive analysis. The study concluded that lack of clear visions and consequently uncoordinated organisations and their policies, isolated and vertical decision-making, and unmanaged intervention without the required organisational capacities are the critical reasons for inefficient urban land management.
Nafiseh Varkianipor, Doctor Seyed Mohammadreza Hosseini, Doctor Roohalla Samiee, Doctor Majid Shrafi,
Volume 19, Issue 54 (9-2019)
Abstract
Abstract in the late 20th century, it has been a tremendous change in all spheres of business, such as globalization of enhancing competitiveness of information technology development competition attention to the quality of customer and such as these are the administration in the public sector with these serious challenges one of the most important approaches to address these challenges is to address the entrepreneurial debate in society as well as women play an important role in promoting employement and improving the economic situation of the community and it is an important factor in shaping social affairs. First, the analysis of sustainable rural development and sustainable development of women identified by using alpha cronbachs alpha test and sustainable development of rural sustainable development have been used to prioritize the relationship between women's entrepreneurial development and sustainable development of rural sustainable development. Women's activities led to poverty reduction and sustainable rural development.
Vakil Heidari Sarban, Alireza Abdpour,
Volume 19, Issue 54 (9-2019)
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the factors improvement of sustainable livelihoods from the perspective of local people of Ardabil County. First, factors affecting effectiveness improvement of sustainable livelihoods in the study area were identified from the perspective of local elites using semi-structured interviews. To achieve this goal, 35 residents of studied region were interviewed individually with college education and at least a bachelor's degree. In the second step of study, in order to understand and analyze rural communities' perspective of and their theoretical agreement degree with the results of the first step, 39 identified causes were the questionnaire design basis by Likert method. It can be said that studied population in this study consists of all villagers living in rural areas of Ardabil County in 2016 (N= 85053), among which 383 persons were selected as statistical sample using Cochran formula. In order to analyze the data, factor analysis model was used and the results of this model showed the most important factor improvement of sustainable livelihoods from the perspective of local people in studied region includes four components (entrepreneurship and fortification of economical infrastructures, support of demand- side and governmental interventional action, fortification of social capital and social empowerment and environmental management and fortification of physical infrastructures) that explained variance and the cumulative variance by the five factors 60.66. And finally, practical suggestions have been presented according to the results of the study.
Amin Kooshki, Mr Mehrshad Toulabi Nejad,
Volume 20, Issue 56 (3-2020)
Abstract
In this research, the development of cross-border cooperation (CBC) to study the factors and stimuli affecting the stability of the ::::union:::: in the border regions were discussed. The aim of the present study, functional and combination method (qualitative and quantitative) is. The data-gathering tool was a questionnaire and interview. The statistical community included various experts in the fields of political science, geography, economics, sociology, law enforcement experts, governorate and governorate in Sistan and Baluchestan province. Using a targeted sampling, 70 experts were selected. For analysis of data, descriptive tests and binary logistic regression model (LM-Newton-Marcard-Raphson method) were used. The results showed that in the area of planning for unity in Sistan and Baluchestan except for the determination of the right of the Hirmand River in the Sistan region, which was concluded with the country over a period of time, the plan was not approved or implemented, and among the five factors Economic, social, cultural-religious, institutional-structural and political security, three economic factors (0.478), political-security (0.473) and cultural-religious (0.363) have the most effect on the stability of unity of border regions in Studied area. The results of this study can be used to develop border cooperation cooperation and coherence stability in different border regions of Iran.
Dr Saadi Mohammadi, Dr Askandar Moradi, Sharmin Hosaini,
Volume 20, Issue 56 (3-2020)
Abstract
The horizontal and urban growth of the past few generations, due to the dominance of the centralized planning system in the country, has led, in accordance with the principle of village-to-city interconversions, that many villages located around cities have undergone numerous changes and changes in the indicator status Of development. These changes, in addition to having positive aspects in most cases, have had a negative impact on the sustainable development of rural areas located in the vicinity of these cities. In the current applied research, a quantitative and qualitative approach with a spatial and descriptive-analytic approach has been carried out. The main objective of this research is to identify the consequences of the Marivan Creep phenomenon on the changes in the development status of the surrounding villages, Over the last few decades, physical development has been speeding up. Data gathering in the theoretical part of the documentary and in the field was conducted by a survey method based on an interview with the local people and the locals to identify the outcomes, and then the classical distribution of the questionnaire among the studied villages and simple random among 203 households supervised by The Cochran formula was determined by volume, 30 from local development experts and observers of the status quo, in order to generalize the findings from the interviews. The results of analyzing the data with the fundamental theory of the technique in the qualitative section and the single-sample t-test in the quantitative section showed that the urban creep phenomenon, in addition to limited positive consequences in improving the physical condition, caused social deficiencies, failure Economic problems, inadequate visual quality, natural environment degradation and institutional management failures in the development of villages studied.
Seyedreza Azadeh, Fatemeh Alavi Zadeh Shalkouhi,
Volume 20, Issue 57 (6-2020)
Abstract
The main goal of this research is to measure the quality of services in the Rasht city BRT from the citizen's point of view. In this regard, the research with respect to goal is practical and with respect to method is descriptive-analytical. A questionnaire technique was used to collect information. In this regard, 400 questionnaires were distributed, and in which 389 complete and error-free questionnaires were collected. After collecting questionnaires, the data were entered into SPSS software and analyzed by using statistical tests (one sample t test, factor analysis, and Cramer's V test). The results of the survey showed that out of the 389 respondents, 178 people (45.8%) evaluated the overall quality and efficiency of the BRT system in Rasht city at a moderate level and also 99 respondents (25.4%) evaluated the quality and efficiency of the BRT system in Rasht city at a desirable level. The average quality and overall efficiency score of the BRT system in Rasht city has been 2.87 out of the citizen's idea. The results of one-sample t-test indicate that there is a significant difference between the mean quality variable and overall efficiency of the BRT system in Rasht city with the test statistic. Based on the results of factors analyzes, 17 studied indicators are summarized in three factors. Based on the extracted factors, the first factor has the greatest impact on health and safety. The second factor has been the load factor on bus working hours, waiting time, cost of payment, total number of buses and distance between bus stations indicators. Finally, the third factor has its impact on cleanliness of buses, cooling system, heating system and the number of seats on buses. Using v Kramer test showed that there is a meaningful relationship between the five independent variables age variables, type of occupation and personal car ownership with dependent variable (quality and overall efficiency of BRT system in Rasht).
Dr Hamdolah Sojasi Qedari, Miss Hamide Mahmoodi, Miss Mahboobe Shirmohamadi,
Volume 20, Issue 57 (6-2020)
Abstract
Training is one of the most convenient, and fastest ways to enable a society. Rural administrators are no exception; therefore, in order to achieve sustainable rural development, it is essential to enable Dehyars (rural administrators) through education and training courses. Accordingly, to improve Dehyar’s performance, they are provided with some training courses held by various organizations dealing with rural issues. Therefore, measuring the quality of training services is a prerequisite for improving the quality of training services and their performance. The research was conducted in a descriptive-analytic method. The population was comprised of all Dehyars in Nasrabad District, Torbat-e-Jam County. Nevertheless, due to small number of the participants, all Dehyars were included in the study. According to the results of the correlation test, both dimensions of ‘expectations’ and ‘perceptions’ have a positive and significant relationship with the individual characteristics of the Dehyars. The results of single sample t-test indicate that the mean of respondents' views in two dimensions of perceptions and expectations from training services is moderate to high. Further, according to the gap analysis (using the SERVQUAL model), in all aspects of the quality of training services, there is a negative gap between the perceptions and expectations of the Dehyars from training services. Nevertheless, the most important component which met the expectations of Dehyars about training services was related to accountability dimension; therefore, it is proposed to reduce the gap through organizing the workshops and training courses in an independent location with adequate equipment for the staff and instructors. It is also recommended to consult the Dehyars to see what courses they need.
Dr Hossein Farahani, Mis Mina Alvandi,
Volume 20, Issue 58 (9-2020)
Abstract
The migration of young people and the aging of rural communities, for reasons such as poverty and unemployment, will create a lot of need for identifying new approaches to the survival of rural communities. Small business entrepreneurship has an important role in reducing poverty and, ultimately, rural development. However, this kind of entrepreneurship faces many challenges in terms of environmental, economic and ... The purpose of this research is to examine the challenges of entrepreneurship in improving entrepreneurship, creating employment and sustainable income through setting up small businesses. The present research is aimed at applying the field of observation and control, and in terms of the nature and method of descriptive-analytical. The statistical population of the study consisted of rural households living in Bijar. According to the census of 1395, the population of this city was 89,162 persons, which according to the distribution of 44% of the rural population and 56% of the city. There are also 283 rural villages in the seaside district, among which 12 villages have entrepreneurship and 244 of them are households using the modified Cochran formula. Data gathering method was library and field questionnaire (questionnaire). In this questionnaire, individuals were asked to identify the importance of each of the identified challenges in rural small business based on the options of this spectrum (high, high, medium, low, and very low) based on the Likert spectrum. Structural Equation Modeling (Factor Analysis) has been used for analyzing data in Amos software. The results of the research show that all challenges in the entrepreneurship of small businesses have been affected, but economic factors with factor load of 0.91 have the highest impact among existing challenges and the individual and social challenges with factor load are 0.23 and 0.28, respectively. The least load has been the factor.
Mohtaram Mirzaeian, Dr Bijan Rahmani, Dr Majid Shams, Dr Abbas Malekhoseini,
Volume 20, Issue 58 (9-2020)
Abstract
The real world has been created of extremely complex mosaics. The regional analysis entails the study of the mechanism of the processes involved in systems that are capable to explain the emergence, growth and decline of a region, but like any other geographic research, doing comparison in such a study is inevitable. The cities of the world are now the homes of more than half of the world’s population. Perhaps the most important global challenge of our age is to make sure that whether the planet remains habitable and provides sufficient resources for future generations. In this study, a descriptive-analytic method has been used to analyze the effects of information and communication technology in urban sustainable development in west urban areas of Kermanshah province. The statistical population of the study consisted of 184642 people that 386 individuals were randomly selected as the sample. The required data were collected by documentary-library method and field study and analyzed and processed using SPSS software and variance analysis model. The results showed that the cities of Qasr-eShirin, Gilan-e Gharb, KerendGharb, Sarpol-e Zahab and Islam AbadGharb obtained the first to fifth ranks respectively in terms of the affectability from information and communication technology in sustainable urban development.
Nafiseh Varkianipor, , , Majid Ashrafi,
Volume 20, Issue 58 (9-2020)
Abstract
The promotion of Entrepreneurship is the need of the community and the entrepreneursial development factors that are essential is the. Of the employment of women in Iran. Pursuit of opportunities beyond resources to create values in an article on the Entrepreneurship of the Entrepreneurship chain and sustainable social development. The elements of value chain were identified and prioritized according to experts in the second part of the paper to measure the relationship between the development of women's entrepreneurship and sustaninable social development through correlation research and strucrural equation modeling. We then discussed the results and the model entrepreneurial development model was developed based on the entrprenrurial value chain with a sustainable social development approach. This model contributes to the formulation of women's entrepreneurial activity and tacilitates the srengths and weaknesses and facilitates. Finally the presentation of the model and the link between the development of women's entrepreneurship of entrepreneurship value chain and sustainable social development were obtained.
Mr Salman Feizi, Dr. Rahim Heydari, Dr. Shahrivar Rostaei,
Volume 20, Issue 59 (12-2020)
Abstract
Tourism is an strategy for increasing the community revitalization of encouraging social revival and improving living conditions in urban areas. Accordingly, urban development planners focus on new tools in their planning strategies to achieve these benefits and move towards new concepts such as branding. Such an approach has added to the importance of branding in urban tourism development. In this research, efforts have been made to evaluate the impact of branding on tourism development and its dimensions in the Tabriz metropolitan area. The present study based on the purpose is the applied research and in terms of method is descriptive-analytical research. The statistical population of this study is tourists entering the city of Tabriz in 2018. The required sample size was considered using Cochran formula and 384 people. The questionnaire used in the research has been constructed by the researcher whose indices are derived from relevant studies and literature and then localized. Validity and reliability of the research model and analysis of the data were done using structural equation modeling and confirmatory factor analysis in Smart PLS software. The research findings showed that destination branding has a positive and significant impact on the development of urban tourism and its dimensions (perceived value and benefits, support and participation and sustainability of tourism development) in Tabriz metropolitan area. The results also indicated that the branding of urban tourism destinations in metropolitan cities could increase the support of tourism through increased value and perceived benefits, thereby contributing to sustainability.
Mr Mohammad Valaei, Dr Abdollah Abdollahi, Mr Aghil Khaleghi, Mis Eynaz Skandarzadeh,
Volume 21, Issue 60 (3-2021)
Abstract
Livestock farming is one of the most important activities in rural areasand most villagers, along with agriculture and horticulture, are engaged in animal husbandry (Livestock storage) and some products of the villagers in the agriculture and horticulture sector are devoted to livestock feeding, and others are consumed or sold, such as lob bits, live meat and etc. The purpose of this research is to analyze the effects of livestock economics on sustainable rural development. The present research is applied in terms of purpose and is descriptive-analytical in terms of its nature and method. Library and field studies have been used to collect data. The study area is East Gavdoul District in the Malekan County. According to the census of this region, there were 2306 households and 7468 inhabitants in 2016. According to the Cochran formula, 283 households were selected as the statistical sample of the research. This sample was randomly selected from households with livelihood economics. To analyze data on inferential statistics, one-sample t-test, regression, analysis and performance diagrams were used. The results of this study showed that there is a positive and meaningful relationship between livestock economy and sustainable rural development with a correlation of 0.400 and significance level of 0.30; So, for the dimensions of livestock economics, the economic sector with the impact of 0.743 and the social sector with the impact of 0.355 have the most impact on the sustainable rural development in the region. Also, the physical section with an impact value of 0.176 has had the lowest level of impact on sustainable rural development in the region. The general results of the research show that the economic sector with 0.41% and the social sector with 0.31% have a positive effect on the development and expansion of th
e livestock economy of the area.
Dr Shahrivar Rostaei, Miss Fariba Kouhi Gholghasem,
Volume 21, Issue 60 (3-2021)
Abstract
Today, in our country, cities have become the main place of work and life of the population and the amount of this population is increasing therefore, it is necessary to pay attention to the quality of life and the facilities needed by citizens and efforts to make cities livable. Increasing the city's livability can be the basis for Stability. It is important to pay attention to children because they are future citizens of society and they create the link between the past and the future generations. The present study, by using futures study knowledge, identified key forces in the future of children's livabilityIn the first phase, using the Delphi method, we first identified some of the variables affecting the future status of urban living for children, Then we extracted 47 variables that were approved by experts and received the highest score. We divided these 47 variables into four environmental, physical, social, and economic groups. Then, using structural analysis method and creating a 47 * 47 matrix, these variables were compared using MICMAC software. Finally, seven forces were extracted, which play key role in the future of children in the city. By using the Delphi method, has taken scenarios for these seven forces and 27 scenarios were written for forces and analyzed in the Scenario wizard software, and 3 strong scenarios, 7 believable scenarios and 309 poor scenarios were extracted. Finally, the results of the analyzes indicate that among the believable scenarios, 3 scenarios show favorable conditions, 3 scenarios, show continuation of the current process and 1 scenario shows completely critical situation. In addition, the results the survey of statistics and land per capita show that in the present situation, children's livability is not very desirable. Finally, solutions and suggestions were made to deal with critical scenarios.
