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Showing 708 results for Type of Study: Research

Moslem Seydi, Kamal Omidvar, Gholamali Mozafari, Ahmad Mazidi,
Volume 25, Issue 77 (6-2025)
Abstract

Climate change is a significant environmental concern due to the sensitivity of glacier melting processes and snow density to climate variations. Currently, a range of satellite sensors, including AVHRR, MODIS, GEOS, and MERIS, are employed for snow monitoring and are extensively utilized to analyze fluctuations and changes in global snow cover. The MODIS sensor is particularly favored for its extensive global spatial coverage, suitable spatial accuracy, and frequent temporal coverage across various scales. Consequently, this study utilizes snow products derived from the MODIS sensor. In this investigation, data on snow-related days from the statistical period of 1989 to 2018 were collected for three provinces: Kermanshah, Ilam, and Lorestan. This data was processed using MODIS snow cover information pertinent to the Middle Zagros region, in conjunction with remote sensing techniques. The study provides a detailed examination of snow cover changes within the specified area. The Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI) was employed to detect snow cover within the MODIS sensor products. To differentiate pixels and identify various phenomena, the acquired images were processed using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology. Analysis of seasonal snow cover changes using MODIS sensor imagery indicates a significant decreasing trend in the majority of the studied area, particularly in the elevated regions. Notably, only the western and southwestern regions of the study area exhibit no discernible decreasing trend. Furthermore, the examination of snow-covered days throughout the study period reveals a decrease in snow cover in the Middle Zagros, with these changes intensifying in recent years, especially in the snow-covered areas of the region. Changes in snow cover during the winter months, particularly in elevated areas, were observed to be more pronounced compared to other seasons and regions within the study area.

Seyed Komeil Salehi, Ms Habibeh Nabizadeh, D.r Amineh Anjem Shoa,
Volume 25, Issue 77 (6-2025)
Abstract

The objective of this research is to investigate the factors that enhance the attractiveness of tourism destinations in Tehran. This study is applied in nature and employs a descriptive-analytical methodology. The data collection methods include the use of questionnaires and interviews. The statistical population comprises tourism experts and specialists, and through the application of Cochran's formula and simple random sampling, a sample of 210 tourism experts was selected. Data analysis was performed utilizing descriptive statistics and logistic regression tests.  The findings of the research reveal that, out of the 210 tourism professionals in Tehran, 91 individuals, representing 43.3%, perceived the attractiveness of Tehran's tourism destinations to be at a high level; 29% assessed it as moderate; and only 27% regarded it as low. Furthermore, the results concerning the factors influencing the enhancement of attractiveness in alignment with tourism development indicate that, among the four factors considered, the most significant were: 1) innovative business opportunities, with an impact coefficient of 0.613; 2) the city's natural, cultural, and historical assets, with an impact coefficient of 0.577; 3) the development of tourism infrastructure, with an impact coefficient of 0.497; and 4) urban development, with an impact coefficient of 0.473.
 

 

Aliakbar Jafarloo, Monireh Ghofran, Sahar Nazari,
Volume 25, Issue 77 (6-2025)
Abstract

Given the recent challenges faced by urban and rural areas in Iran, it is anticipated that these regions will encounter significant uncertainties and critical issues in the coming years. Addressing land use and mitigating the challenges associated with urban and rural development necessitates a thorough identification of these issues, followed by strategic planning aimed at alleviating their impact. This research adopts a futuristic perspective and employs a qualitative-descriptive methodology to investigate these matters. To achieve the research objectives, an extensive review of relevant literature and library studies was conducted, supplemented by consultations with 70 experts across various domains. This process facilitated the identification of the primary challenges related to urban and rural development and land use within the context of Iran in the year 1420 (Islamic calendar). Subsequently, qualitative analysis was utilized to develop strategic scenarios aimed at addressing the identified challenges in the country’s future trajectory. The findings reveal that Iran will likely experience sudden disruptions and heightened uncertainties, compounded by economic, social, political, environmental, demographic, geopolitical, and climate-related factors, as well as issues related to cyberspace and increasing inequalities. Furthermore, there are unanticipated and unaddressed threats on the horizon. In response to these challenges, twenty future scenarios were devised, designed to confront the macro-level issues highlighted in the research, while also challenging current assumptions and posing critical questions regarding the nation's future. These scenarios provide strategic insights into how Iran can prepare to meet the evolving needs of its urban and rural communities as the country approaches the year 1420, in light of a dynamic and uncertain future.

Abolfazl Meshkini, Mohammad Reza Bahrami,
Volume 25, Issue 77 (6-2025)
Abstract

In the process of urban space creation, there exists a continuous exchange of ideas concerning the current state of that space and the desired conditions as articulated by its inhabitants. Improvements in the challenging realities of urban environments are often manifested through physical changes, one of which is urban regeneration. Given the proliferation of urban regeneration projects in recent decades, it is imperative to consider the social dimensions inherent in these initiatives. In this context, social capital, recognized as a significant social asset within neighborhoods, has assumed particular importance in the discourse surrounding regeneration. This research examines the role of social capital in the regeneration of urban neighborhoods, with a specific focus on the Islamabad Karaj neighborhood. The methodological approach employed in this investigation is descriptive-analytical. The primary objective of this study is to analyze the influence of social capital on the regeneration processes within the Islamabad Karaj neighborhood as perceived by its residents. Data collection for the theoretical framework was conducted using documentary analysis, while the empirical component involved a survey utilizing a questionnaire. The statistical population comprises individuals aged 15 years and older residing in a neighborhood of over 25,000 inhabitants, from which a sample of 410 respondents was selected through simple random sampling, employing Cochran's formula. For data analysis, Spearman's correlation coefficient and multiple linear regression analyses were conducted using SPSS software. The findings indicate a strong correlation between social capital and urban regeneration within the Karaj neighborhood of Islamabad. The implications of this research highlight the necessity to focus on the components of social capital and to implement policies aimed at its maintenance and enhancement to facilitate successful urban regeneration in the Islamabad Karaj neighborhood.

, , Jamaleddin Honarvar,
Volume 25, Issue 77 (6-2025)
Abstract

The coronavirus pandemic has brought many challenges to countries around the world, and the tourism industry has not been left out. To address these challenges in the tourism industry, recovery and adaptation measures are a topic that requires more attention. The aim of the present study is to examine the measures to revive and recover urban and rural tourism in the post-corona era. The present study is applied in terms of its purpose and its method is mixed (qualitative and quantitative). The data and information collection tool is exploratory and in-depth interviews. The statistical population of the study is experts and specialists in the field of tourism, who conducted 50 in-depth interviews using non-probability sampling and purposefully. The qualitative method of grand theory, Strauss and Corbin method, was used to analyze the information. According to the experts, 32 concepts were identified for the revival and recovery of urban and rural tourism in the post-corona era; of these 32 indicators, 6 indicators were related to rural tourism, 6 measures to urban tourism, and 20 indicators to tourism of both urban and rural destinations. The effect of 2 indicators was also described as insignificant. The results showed that; compensation for tourism losses, prevention and control of the coronavirus pandemic, smart tourism, tax exemption and subsidy, revival of the tourism market, construction of quality tourism places, safety of accommodation and hospitality, improvement of health facilities, ensuring the safety of international tourism, restoring the trust of travelers, providing clear information to travelers, strengthening cooperation within and between countries, are the most important measures for the revival and recovery of urban and rural tourism. The results of this research can also be used to revive and recover urban and rural tourism in the post-corona era in other parts of the country.
 

Mr Fazllollah Karimi Ghotbabadi, Dr Ali Zangiabadi,
Volume 25, Issue 77 (6-2025)
Abstract

Earthquake resilience, defined as the capacity of societies—including social, economic, institutional, geographical, and other dimensions—to withstand and recover from seismic events, is a critical issue that demands attention across various societal contexts. It is essential to acknowledge that attitudes toward resilience and the analytical frameworks employed to assess it significantly influence both the understanding of underlying causes of resilience and the formulation of policies aimed at risk reduction and management. The objective of this study is to evaluate and rank the earthquake resilience of new urban developments within the Isfahan Metropolitan area through the utilization of a combined index. Given the nature of the subject matter, the research adopts a descriptive-analytical approach. The study's statistical population comprises six new urban developments: Shahin Shahr, Majlesi, Sepahan Shahr, Foolad Shahr, Baharestan, and Shahid Keshvari. This research is characterized as applied in nature, and information for the literature review was gathered through library research methods. According to the results derived from the Potentially Optimal Solutions Evaluation Technique (POSET) analysis, the rankings of the urban developments based on the combined index of resilience to earthquake risk are as follows: Majlesi (3), Baharestan (6), Foolad Shahr (7), Sepahan Shahr (8), Shahin Shahr (11), and Shahid Keshvari (14). Consequently, to mitigate the adverse effects of earthquakes on communities, it is imperative to consider the unique capacities of each urban development, thereby reducing potential human and financial losses resulting from such events.

Laaya Jalilian, , Mohsen Ahadnejad, Hiwa865@gmail.com,
Volume 25, Issue 77 (6-2025)
Abstract

Policy-making in tourism development planning necessitates the adoption of innovative methodologies within the domain of urban governance. In alignment with this framework, it is imperative to implement policies that focus on the processes of "developing a good governance model for tourism in the post-COVID-19 era in Iran." This approach aims to mitigate the challenges posed by the pandemic, which has imposed significant strain on the tourism industry by reducing the evaluation of tourism governance indicators and establishing a foundation for their implementation. The methodology of this research is descriptive-survey with a practical focus, employing both documentary studies and field research. The qualitative component of the study utilized interviews as a tool for data analysis and the examination of relevant tourism indicators. The statistical population comprises experts and stakeholders involved in the tourism sector in Iran, with a sample size of 14 individuals selected through a combination of purposive and snowball sampling techniques. In-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted, and the data were analyzed through a process of open, axial, and selective coding until theoretical saturation was achieved, leading to the categorization of main and sub-categories. The data analysis was informed by the grounded theory methodology. The findings of this research, which identify indicators of effective governance and elucidate the causal conditions for the application of such governance in Iran's tourism industry, provide a foundation for potential outcomes, including the enhancement of the business environment, particularly in the aftermath of the economic downturn experienced due to the COVID-19 pandemic. These outcomes may lead to the creation of competitive advantages through the establishment of conducive platforms, including organizational measures, infrastructure development, technological enhancements, and the implementation of information and communication management strategies, marketing strategies, and oversight mechanisms, all of which are articulated as a comprehensive model.

Zohreh Maryanji, Fatemeh Sotoudeh, Meysam Toulabi Nejad, Ziba Zarrin,
Volume 25, Issue 77 (6-2025)
Abstract

Understanding and predicting future climatic conditions and characteristics is crucial due to their implications for various aspects of life. This research aims to forecast trends in extreme temperatures in the Hamedan region by employing statistical downscaling of general circulation model data. The LARS statistical downscaling model has been utilized to downscale data from the HadGEM2-ES general circulation model and the coupled CMIP5 model under three emission scenarios (RCP2.5, RCP4.5, RCP8.5). Correlation estimates between the simulated and observed data indicate values exceeding 0.95 for all months. Additionally, the p-values derived from statistical tests based on the model outputs demonstrate an acceptable level of performance in data generation and simulation. Consequently, data from 2011 to 2050 were extracted and analyzed for trends. To elucidate changes in trends, the data were examined across three distinct time intervals. The results indicate that in the optimistic scenario (RCP2.5), no significant trend is observed in the average and minimum temperatures. In contrast, significant trends in temperature data are evident under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, suggesting that the increase in average minimum temperatures reflects severe climatic changes, particularly affecting precipitation patterns during the cold season. Furthermore, the analysis of the trend data reveals a significant increase in average maximum temperatures on both annual and monthly scales across all three examined scenarios, indicating an imminent environmental crisis.

Mrs Fatemeh Vatanparast Galeh Juq, Dr Bromand Salahi, Batoul Zeinali,
Volume 25, Issue 77 (6-2025)
Abstract

This study investigates the impact of the OLR MJO Index (OMI) and the Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on the frequency of dust storms in the stations of Abadan, Ahvaz, Bostan, Bandar Mahshahr, Dezful, Ramhormoz, and Masjed Soleiman, located in Khuzestan province, during the period from April to September 1987-2021. Pearson correlation coefficients were computed to assess the relationship between dust data and the indices, and the findings were depicted through zoning maps. Subsequently, the frequency percentage of each index for both positive and negative phases was quantified. The results indicate a direct and significant correlation between the positive and negative phases of the indices and dust occurrences (with the exception of Dezful station), particularly during the positive phase of the OMI and the negative phase of the RMM. The highest correlation coefficients, ranging from 0.77 to 0.72, were observed for Bandar Mahshahr and Dezful stationsduring the positive phase of the RMM index. Analysis of the relationship between the Madden-Julian Oscillation and dust storms revealed that between 51% and 59% of dust storms in Khuzestan province occurred in the negative phase of the OMI index, while 40% to 49% occurred in the positive phase. In the case of the RMM index, 56% to 63% of dust storms were associated with its negative phase, in contrast to 37% to 50% linked to its positive phase. Notably, the negative phase of the RMM index exhibited a higher percentage of dust storms compared to the negative phase of the OMI index. According to the results of the Monte Carlo test, the displacement of the positive and negative phases of the RMM index significantly contributes to the occurrence of dust storms at most stations in Khuzestan province. Furthermore, tracking the pathways of dust entering Khuzestan province using the HYSPLIT model indicates the movement of particles originating from Iraq, Arabia, and the eastern regions of Syria toward Khuzestan province..

Mis Ameneh Alibakhshi, Dr Mohammadreza Pourmohammadi, Dr Rasoul Ghorbani,
Volume 25, Issue 77 (6-2025)
Abstract

In recent decades, one of the main challenges in studies related to regional development is the search for understanding the economic and cultural differences between the national and regional levels in order to predict the transition that will lead to regional development. One of the systems that plays an important role in regional development is the regional innovation system. To this end, the aim of the present study is to identify the key drivers of regional innovation in the Tabriz metropolis. In this regard, the study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in nature. Two library and field methods were used to collect the required information. The statistical population of the study includes 32 qualified individuals in the industry, university, and government sectors who were selected as purposive sampling. The data were also collected from the Miqmac software for analysis. The research findings show that out of a total of 71 influential factors, 13 factors include an appropriate productivity culture, laws and regulations, the existence of a teamwork culture between activists and established industry units, information and communication technology infrastructure, sufficient funding for university research infrastructure, higher education, patent programs, higher education policy, performance evaluation and payment system, financial support, a special and flexible tax system for research and development, and research centers.

Elham Homayooni, Dr Elham Pourmahabadian, Sina Razaghiasl,
Volume 25, Issue 77 (6-2025)
Abstract

The design of the work environment is directly linked to variations in construction performance. Factors that are not adequately considered in the design of the work environment may hinder the proper execution of administrative tasks, consequently leading to a decline in administrative productivity. The environmental characteristics of workspaces and their effects on employees are of particular significance. Furthermore, to enhance productivity within an organization, several conditions must be established, with the human factor being paramount; a motivated workforce is crucial for optimal performance. The primary objective of this research is to elucidate the optimal design model for municipal administrative spaces, with an existential approach influenced by the geography of Shahrekord. In this context, the research investigates the question of what constitutes the optimal model for designing municipal office spaces, informed by an existential perspective and geographical considerations unique to Shahrekord. The research employs a "descriptive-analytical" method for the theoretical foundation and a "survey method" for the presentation of findings. The environmental variables of office spaces, aligned with indicators of existential psychology, were assessed through a structured questionnaire. Upon completion of the questionnaires by the study participants, the collected data were analyzed using Amos and SPSS analytical software. The findings of this research regarding office buildings indicate that the most significant environmental parameters affecting human resource performance in office settings include color, lighting, noise pollution levels, visibility and scenery, indoor air quality, and thermal comfort. Additionally, factors such as design, flexibility, communication, workspace arrangement, furniture, and humidity can be categorized into two groups: psychological and physical components.

Majid Goodarzi, Ali Ashkboos, Behnam Mohammadi,
Volume 25, Issue 77 (6-2025)
Abstract

The intermediate development approach posits that vacant lands and the deteriorating structures within urban areas should be prioritized for development rather than expanding into the periphery of cities currently under construction. Acknowledging this significance, the present article endeavors to identify and prioritize the barriers to intermediate development in Zabol, utilizing Chang's technique. This applied study employs a descriptive-analytical research methodology, incorporating both library research and survey research (field studies) for data collection. The statistical population for identifying the obstacles to intermediate development comprised all residents of Zabol city in 2023. The sample size was calculated to be 384 using Cochran's formula, and a purposive sampling method was employed to gather the data. The reliability of the research instrument was assessed using Cronbach's alpha coefficient, yielding a value of 0.80. The identification of obstacles was conducted through a sample t-test in SPSS, followed by the prioritization of the identified barriers. Data were collected from existing information about the city and through a questionnaire distributed to 20 relevant experts. Subsequently, the data were analyzed using Chang's technique (AHP-FUZZY). The findings indicated that the most significant obstacle to the implementation of the intermediate development plan for Zabol city is the economic index, which received a final weight of 483.

Mis Zakeyeh Aftabi, Phd Morad Kaveyani Rad, ,
Volume 25, Issue 77 (6-2025)
Abstract

Water is a strategic and scarce resource that has become increasingly limited in recent years due to a variety of national and transnational factors, significantly impacting security, stability, development, and prosperity in various countries. The profound influence of water on these domains has positioned it at the forefront of the foreign policy and hydropolitical relations of numerous nations, including those in South West Asia. In recent years, despite the prominence of the water crisis and its implications for the relations between Iran and Iraq within scholarly, political, and media discussions, the complexities of this issue remain poorly understood, leading to disparate interpretations. 
The current research, which is exploratory in nature, utilized library methods for data collection with the aim of achieving a qualitative understanding of the multifaceted hydropolitical relations between Iran and Iraq. This study not only seeks to identify the content and methodological characteristics of existing literature but also aims to uncover research gaps in this field employing a qualitative meta-analysis approach. Through this method, the research examined 34 studies published between 2014 and 2023, including domestic scientific articles, theses, and contributions to reputable international journals. The findings indicate that a comprehensive analysis of the various dimensions of hydropolitical relations between Iran and Iraq has yet to be undertaken. In this context, the absence of accurate and reliable data, alongside the inadequacy of theoretical and cognitive frameworks, represents significant deficiencies in the existing research on the bilateral relations of these two countries.
 

Zahra Hedjazizadeh, Sayyed Mohammad Hosseini, Ali Reza Karbalaee, Shokofe Layeghi,
Volume 25, Issue 77 (6-2025)
Abstract

Drought is a natural hazard that annually causes significant economic, social, environmental, and life-threatening damage in vast areas of the Earth. The damages caused by this phenomenon are intangible but very extensive and costly.  In many circomstancs, modern remote sensing techniques can be a useful tool in monitoring drought due to high temporal accuracy, wide spectral coverage, ease of access, no need for atmospheric correction and ground referencing. In recent years, the province of Hamedan has faced many problems due to frequent droughts. Therefore, the present study focused on investigating and monitoring drought in Hamedan province using the Temperature Condition index and its impact on the vegetation cover of the province using Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) remote sensing data. First, the relevant data was extracted from the Nova star database, and finally, the spatiotemporal behavior of the vegetation cover drought index was examined on 1528 pixels in Hamedan province. The spatial resolution of the data used in this study is 4 kilometers. First, the relevant data were extracted from the Navstar database and ultimately, the spatiotemporal behavior of the drought index and vegetation cover was examined. The results indicate that drought has significantly increased the vegetation cover of Hamedan province based on remote sensing data. Kendall's coefficients indicate the presence of decreasing trends in vegetation cover at a 95 Percent confidence level. Only in May, June, and December has there been a slight decrease in vegetation cover within the extent of drought in the province. The spatial behavior analysis of the drought index on vegetation cover showed that February, March, as well as April have experienced more severe droughts within Hamedan province.

Hassan Heidari, Ebrahim Mesgari,
Volume 25, Issue 77 (6-2025)
Abstract

Understanding the daily weather types of any specific location is crucial for identifying its long-term climate patterns. In this study, we utilized the Wos classification method in conjunction with a comprehensive climatological approach to analyze key variables, including minimum, average, and maximum temperatures, as well as cloud cover and daily precipitation. Data from 1985 to 2021 were collected from 39 synoptic stations, which exhibited a well-distributed representation across the country and provided complete datasets. Weather types were identified using established coding techniques. The findings indicated that the predominant temperature types in the country are primarily categorized as hot and very hot, with sub-codes reflecting generally low to moderate cloud cover and negligible precipitation. Furthermore, the application of Ward's clustering method facilitated the identification of three distinct climatic groups. The geographical characteristics of each location, including factors such as altitude, latitude, proximity to the sea, and synoptic influences, play a significant role in the regional differentiation of these groups within the country. The outcomes of this research can be instrumental in developing weather calendars for various regions, with implications for numerous sectors including agriculture and tourism.
 

Masoud Malekian Dolat Abadi, Gholamhosein Heidari, Farhad Hamzeh,
Volume 25, Issue 77 (6-2025)
Abstract

The contemporary global landscape is characterized by heightened geopolitical competition, in which energy resources have evolved from being mere support for nations to becoming pivotal elements in the contest for power. This context has transformed corridors into significant arenas for competition, as each country endeavors to establish its position within the intricate network created by these emerging corridors. In this regard, the prevailing global geopolitical trend has intensified the competition over maritime chokepoints and secured access to cross-border markets.This research serves as a theoretical foundation, employing a descriptive-analytical methodology that incorporates a comparative approach, utilizing library and internet resources for data collection. Within the chronopolitical framework of Iran-Iraq relations, each actor strives to delineate its role in international corridors while pursuing various objectives. For instance, Iraq is actively engaged in the "FAW Corridor" initiative, whereas Iran seeks to expand economic cooperation and secure a place in the burgeoning alliances of the East. While it is challenging to make definitive predictions regarding the future of relations between the two countries from a chronopolitical perspective, emerging signs suggest a trend toward diminished cooperation and increased competition, influenced by a multitude of variables. A key indicator of this potential competition is the rivalry over transit routes (corridors).
 

Dr. Hassan Kamran, Dr. Habibollah Fasihi,
Volume 25, Issue 77 (6-2025)
Abstract

The historical fabric of cities, which leave the cultural heritage of the urban community like a shining gem, has valuable capabilities for the prosperity of the city's economy and for linking the past, present and future. Preservation of this valuable heritage, along with efficient use of its capacities, is considered a serious duty of society members and an important responsibility for policy makers and managers. This article seeks to explore natural and human-induced hazards face to Baharestan as an example of Tehran's historical fabric neighborhoods and to study the physical and structural situation of the neighborhood to identify threats that put it at risk. The data was obtained from a few GIS files and a survey. Historical documents are also analyzed. According to the judgment of 30 sample experts, each value of the 19 using threat indicators is given a score from 1 to 5 so that, a higher number means a greater threat. The mean value of these scores indicates the role of each parameter in the vulnerability of this neighborhood. Research findings reveal a high potential for natural and human-induced events including earthquakes, flooding, strong winds, air pollution, and political protests. Physical, structural, and socio-economic situations in the neighborhood such as insecurity, drug abuse in public spaces, overcrowding, and daytime congestion have also led to rapid relocation of neighborhood residents, who subsequently were replaced by commercial activities and warehouses that attribute to risks as well. In order to protect this neighborhood as a cultural heritage, it is necessary to develop a detailed rejeneration plan that considers the entire historical fabric of Tehran.
 
Rastegar Mohammadi, Mohammad Saligheh, Mohammad Hossein Naserzadeh, Mehri Akbari,
Volume 25, Issue 78 (9-2025)
Abstract

Extratropical cyclones, characterized by their frequency, duration, and intensity, serve as the primary drivers of mid- and high-latitude precipitation across the Mediterranean during the winter and autumn months. For this research, climatic variables obtained from the ECMWF network, featuring a temporal resolution of 6 hours and a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25°, spanning from 1979 to 2016, were utilized. Additionally, precipitation data from four basin stations sourced from the Asfezari database for the same period were analyzed. Initially, geopotential height, temperature, humidity, and jet stream data for rainy days were extracted using MATLAB. Subsequently, a cyclonic center extraction algorithm was applied to identify cyclonic centers from the geopotential height data, based on the conditions that the geopotential height is at a minimum and the geopotential gradient is at a maximum. From the geopotential height matrix of rainy days (361×441×498), four distinct atmospheric patterns were identified through cluster analysis. The temporal and spatial frequency of these patterns, as well as the average temperature of cyclonic centers, were analyzed for the cold season months. The results indicated that the first pattern, identified as the Mediterranean trough pattern, is the most frequent, occurring 42% of the time. This pattern is characterized by the presence of a high-level system acting as a barrier, which deepens the low-level Mediterranean system and extends its axis toward the Red Sea. The interaction between low-level and high-level systems enhances instability, resulting in the highest precipitation levels among the identified patterns. Conversely, the fourth pattern, termed the western wind trough pattern, exhibits the lowest frequency at 10%. This pattern is characterized by a trough over the Caspian Sea; however, a high-level system in the southern region inhibits the entry of low-level systems, thereby confining cyclonic activity to the northern portion of the study area. Consequently, the isobars in the northern region assume a more orbital configuration, leading to a decreased influx of cyclones and, as a result, lower precipitation amounts compared to the other patterns. The analysis further revealed that cold-core cyclones accounted for 60% of occurrences in winter and 40% in autumn, while hot-core cyclones constituted 62% in winter and 38% in autumn. Notably, the frequency of hot-core cyclones increased relative to cold-core cyclones in winter, whereas an inverse trend was observed in autumn. Over the past decade, both the frequency and intensity of cyclones have diminished compared to the preceding two decades. In terms of cyclogenesis locations, the western part of the study area has consistently emerged as the most active region. Moreover, cyclogenesis activity exhibits a gradual increase from autumn to winter as the cold season progresses. These findings underscore the dynamic nature of extratropical cyclones and their significant role in shaping precipitation patterns across the Mediterranean region.
 

Haniyeh Asadzadeh, Tajaldin Karami, Farzaneh Sasanpour, Ali Shamaie,
Volume 25, Issue 78 (9-2025)
Abstract

In present society, structural transformations within the economy, rapid advancements in science and technology, constraints on financial and human resources, the interdependence of nations, global competition, and the increasing trend toward globalization necessitate a more profound understanding of "change" and the "future" for governments, businesses, organizations, and individuals. Futures studies play a critical role in assisting policymakers and planners in the development of effective programs by enhancing communication, coordination, and collaboration among organizations and institutions. This research is applied in its objectives, descriptive-analytical in its nature and methodology, and exploratory in its approach to scenario writing. Data were collected through both documentary and field methods. In the field method, a researcher-constructed questionnaire in the form of a cross-impact matrix was administered to experts for scoring the factors. Utilizing the Delphi method, 30 experts were selected, and questionnaires were distributed non-randomly through convenience sampling. The data were analyzed using MICMAC and MORPHOL software. The findings indicate that the urban-regional system of Tehran is in an unstable state. Ten key drivers were identified as influential in the development of the Tehran metropolitan area: dominant ideology, integrated management, expansion of information and communication technology infrastructure, e-commerce, enhancement of economic competitiveness, economic branding, electronic management systems, political transparency, facilitation of multinational companies' entry, and the expansion of urban diplomacy. Ultimately, the scenarios for the future development of the Tehran metropolitan area revealed eight potential outcomes. The first scenario, characterized by nine pessimistic assumptions and one intermediate assumption, was identified as having the highest probability of occurrence.

Toba Alizadeheh, Majid Rezaie Banafsh, Gholamreza Goodarzi, Hashem Rostamzadeh,
Volume 25, Issue 78 (9-2025)
Abstract

Dust is a phenomenon with significant environmental impacts across various aspects of human life, including agriculture, economy, health, and more. The purpose of this study is to investigate and predict the dust phenomenon in Kermanshah. Meteorological data with a 3-hour resolution for the statistical period (2000–2020) from the Kermanshah station was obtained from the Meteorological Organization. First, the dust data were normalized, and then Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models were used to predict dust concentration, while the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) was employed to analyze and predict the time series of dust occurrence in MATLAB software. The findings revealed that the maximum predicted dust concentration, related to the minimum dew point with the highest Pearson correlation with dust, was estimated at 3451.23 µg/m³. Additionally, the results of the time series prediction using the ANFIS model showed that the linear bell membership function with grade 3, during both the training and testing stages, was the most effective input function among other membership functions. According to the forecasting models, the highest probability of maximum dust occurrence in the next 20 years in Kermanshah is 94%. Based on the aforementioned studies, sufficient information was gathered to conduct this research. The phenomenon of dust, particularly in western Iran and the city of Kermanshah, has consistently posed significant challenges for the residents of these areas. This phenomenon is influenced by specific atmospheric conditions that cause irreparable damage annually, leading to respiratory issues and deteriorating air quality. Therefore, it is essential to pay serious attention to the issue of dust.
 


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