Mahdi Frotan, Majid Rezaei Banafsheh Daragh ,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (3-1921)
Abstract
Climate change is a significant threat to water resources, potentially altering precipitation patterns and increasing the likelihood of droughts in certain regions. This study aims to project future drought conditions in the Aras Downstream Watershed for the period 2025-2050, employing CMIP6 climate models (NorESM2-LM, CanESM5, and MPI-ESM1-2-HR) and the CMhyd software. Historical daily precipitation data from the selected models were compared with data from five stations (Parsabad, Aslan Duz, Jafarabad, Dasht, and Shorgol) within the study watershed. The comparison was conducted using statistical metrics (R2, MAE, MSE, and RMSE), and the results indicated the superior performance of the MPI-ESM1-2-HR model in precipitation estimation. This model was bias-corrected using the LS method in the CMhyd software, and future precipitation was projected based on the outputs of three scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was employed on a three-month timescale to assess drought conditions. The findings revealed that the overall region will experience normal conditions based on SPI classifications. However, there will be a relatively higher potential for drought in the southern part of the watershed under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios compared to SSP1-2.6. The analysis of the network station averages indicated that the optimistic scenario suggests favorable conditions for the watershed, while the intermediate and pessimistic scenarios suggest a contrasting picture, with drought becoming prevalent across the entire region in the coming decades.
Tooba Alizadeh, Majid Rezaei Banafsheh, Hashem Rostamzadeh, Gholamreza Goodarzi, Hedar Maleki, Hamzeh Alizadeh,
Volume 24, Issue 74 (9-2024)
Abstract
The aim of this study was to identify the epicenter and co-occurrence factors of dust storm wave from 1 to 3 November 2017 in Kermanshah. To investigate the synoptic conditions of the causes of this phenomenon, from the European Central Center (ESMWF) mid-term weather forecast data set with a resolution of 0.125 degrees of arc including, geopotential height, omega, sea level pressure, orbital and meridional components, humidity. The Lagrangian method of HYSPLIT model was used to orient the source of dust particles. in this study, dust storm WRF-chem was simulated using a paired numerical weather forecasting model. Finally, through the processing of MODIS satellite images, its scope was determined. Examination of HYSPLIT tracking maps shows that two general paths for dust transfer to the area can be identified. 1- The northwest-southeast route, which passes through dust cores formed in the deserts of Iraq and Syria, transports dust to the western half of Iran. 2- Southwest to west of Iran and Kermanshah, which is the main source of dust on November 2 and 3, The source of the particles is Kuwait, northern Saudi Arabia and part of Iraq. The spatial distribution of the dust interpreted by the MODIS sensor images is consistent with the spatial distribution of the dust concentration simulated by the WRF-chem model.
