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Sasanpour F. Future Studies Urban bubble in Tehran metropolitan. jgs 2017; 17 (47) :171-189
URL: http://jgs.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2944-en.html

Urbanization bubble is a new concept in urban planning issues for examining sustainability at various levels of social, economic, environmental, and management. So far, no common definition provided for urbanization bubble that indicate a lack of research in this field. This research aimed at assessing futures studies of urbanization bubble in Tehran metropolitan with focus on scenario planning. Research method in term of purpose is applied and in term of method is exploratory descriptive analytic one. Required data gathered through field study and document review. In field studies, Delphi technique performed in the form of a group of 30 people. For data analyzing, cross impact analyzes used in MICMAC software. Results indicate that 56 factors identified as key factors in five institutional, managerial, economic, social and environmental dimensions affecting future condition of urbanization bubble. Then, based on experts’ comments, 25 agents identified. Dispersion of the variables indicates the instability of Tehran's metropolitan system. Five categories of influential, dual, regulatory, influential and independent factors identified. Final scores and ranking of key factors carried out and finally, three scenarios presented for the future status of urbanization bubble in Tehran metropolitan.