Journal of Engineering Geology

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(Paper pages 697-716)
Silakhor Brojerd area is between high Zagros zone and Sanandaj-Sirjan zone and is one of the seismic areas, with high frequency of occurrence and medium magnitude and sometimes high magnitude, in Iran. Area of maximum destruction and fault plane solutions show a NW-SE trend. Observation of aftershock distribution, caused by earthquake of 1384/2/31, on the region delineated that most of them have occurred in the epicenter area of the main shock, on Ghale-Hatam fault. Also most of aftershocks, caused by earthquake of 1385/1/13 in Brojerd, have occurred in epicenter area of the main shock on Doroud fault. Moreover, focal mechanisms of earthquakes, are right lateral strike-slip with some normal or reverse dip-slip. These different solutions, next to each others indicate partitioning in this area of Zagros.

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Abstract (Paper pages 1179-1194) The site under study is located in the south of municipality-13, east of Tehran. Numerous building construction activities and large investment have been done in this area. Hence, it is important to have a good knowledge of the site characteristics. Soil classification is a very effective tool for optimum engineering construction which may reduce the future earthquake hazards. Building codes such as standard No. 2800, UBC, IBC and Eurocode 8 were used for soil classification. Seismic and geotechnical data were collected. Based on the considered Building codes the average seismic velocity and SPT values were estimated. It was concluded that Piroozi Street can be grouped into II, SC, C and B classes.

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In this paper, using Mononobe & Okabe method, seismic force and its effects on thin masonry retaining wall inside structural frame (Masonry retaining infill) are presented. In this method, retaining wall has been assumed to be rigid and the prevailing failure mode is sliding of wall bed joint or wall rotation around its toe, whereas the prevailing failure mode of masonry retaining infill is usually flexural cracking in middle zone of wall under out of plane seismic force. In this case, the seismic force distribution is important. Accordingly in this paper, a distribution for seismic forces on masonry retaining infill has been proposed. Also with regard to out of plane behavior of masonry retaining infill in terms of strength and acceptance criteria aspect, failure in body of wall due to out of plane loads has been analyzed. Then, the desired seismic rehabilitation method in case of vulnerable masonry retaining infills has been presented and as a practical example, results of the proposed method with the results of numerical software have been controlled. Finally, according to various conditions predicted for masonry retaining infills, Seismic Retrofit solutions are presented for practical applications.

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Evaluation of ground response is one of the most important issues that should be considered in seismic geotechnical engineering field. Alongside the earthquake path associated to regional soil, generally earth movement in places with soft soil is greater than the movement in places with harder soil. This paper is focused to identify local soil condition of Ardekan city which influences on earthquake wave shaking. Therefore after drilling boreholes, implementing geotechnical investigations and down hole geophysical tests, the soil layer characteristics and thicknesses have been obtained. Then shear wave velocity along with soil density have been determined. With using these data it is developed a shaking geotechnical models for different city regions. Finally the ground movement parameters have been determined by   the available data obtained such as density, wave velocity along with using the equivalent linear method employing EERA program. This work was prepared for the return period of 75, 475 and2475 years. It is found that northwest region of city has the most amplification in comparison to other regions.

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In the recent years there was a great improvement in the development of underground structures. Due to the increase in the costs of constructions and the importance of the safety in transportation, attention has been focused on the hazards of earthquakes. In this paper, the effect of earthquakes and the importance of seismic analysis are described. The analysis method is presented briefly, and then the simplified analysis of Hashash et al. (2001) is used. Two metro station structures under two different seismic hazardlevels were analyzed. Pushover analysis method is also used which is a simple and static non-linear method in seismic analysis and design of structures.  In this non-linear analysis, the target displacement is computed by the simplified frame analysis model. The finding of this study showed that the structure behavior was remained elastically to a large extent of displacement using this method. Hence, the design of the structures based on the performance level or reduction of the moment extracted from the Hashash et al. (2001) method is recommended.

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The choice of a suitable bearing capacity of soil becomes the most important issue to be considered in any project. This paper describes analytical investigation conducted to evaluate the ultimate bearing capacity of adjacent footings in various spacings of footings. Bearing capacity of adjacent footings is determined based on virtual retaining wall method by applying equilibrium between active and passive forces. Results indicate the ultimate bearing capacity of each foundation changes due to the interference effect of the failure surface in the soil and it depends on footings spacing. In the present study, effect of soil type, depth of adjacent footings and reinforced soil is investigated on bearing capacity of adjacent footings. Results indicate closely spaced footings, can decrease or increase bearing capacity of adjacent footings with respect to single footings. Also, reinforced soil increases bearing capacity of closely spaced footings with respect to single footings on unreinforced soil, it depends on footings spacing. Finally, the predicted results are compared with those reported from experiments, analytical and numerical results performed by others, indicating an acceptable agreement.
 

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In the present study, landslides occurred during 1997 Sarein, Iran earthquake are discussed and evaluated. In order to meet the objectives, the Computing with Words (CW), an approach using fuzzy logic systems in which words are used in place of numbers for computing and reasoning is applied. Firstly, the necessary information which include disturbance distance, ground class, moisture, shaking intensity, slope angle, slope height, soil depth, terrain roughness, and land-use have been collected using air photos, LANDSAT satellite images, geological and topographic maps, and site investigation of the studied region. The data is digitized and weighted using ARCGIS software. At the next step, the hazard rate and predicted areal concentrations of landslides with respect to their types are calculated using CAMEL software (Miles & Keefer, 2007). CAMEL provides an integrated framework for modeling all types of earthquake-induced landslides using geographical information system(GIS). Finally, landslides hazard map is compared to landslides triggered by Sarein earthquake.

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Direct observation and experience of past earthquakes together with modeling carried out by researchers, has shown that ground motion acceleration and frequency is affected by the nonlinear behavior of site soil. In the process of assessing the seismic response of structures and lifelines, it is essential to understand the nonlinear behavior of the soil and how it can affect the results. In this paper, the nonlinear behavior of Urmia's subsurface soil is studied by performing one dimensional nonlinear site response analysis in time domain. Artificial acceleration time histories that were synthesized based on the result of seismic hazard analysis, conducted over three return periods, are used as input motion. Spectral acceleration at the ground surface is compared with those calculated for seismic bedrock, and spectral acceleration amplification curves are obtained. These curves show that, the amplification is greater in the central and eastern regions of the city than those for other regions of the city because of a deeper soil profile. The results show that the maximum amplification for higher return period is smaller because of greater soil nonlinear behavior

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Determination of Faults activity rate is among the most important parameters of evaluating faulting hazards. In this paper, active faults on region of Shahid Rajai dam of Sari with radius 100 km based on fractal dimension of faulting and earthquake as well as evaluation of slip rate were classified and those Activity rate were assessed. In order to determine of fractal dimension of faulting and earthquake, Box-counting method was used. For estimate of slip rate beginning the seismicity parameters (a&b) of study area was estimation. Then these parameters were normalized for each fault. Based on the existing relationships and having a&b for each fault, the seismic moment of fault was calculated. Finally according to extant relations for evaluation of seismic moment rate, slip rate of each fault was determined and the faults of study area were classified accordingly. By grading based on fractal dimensions, the faults of North- Alborz, Damghan and Garmsar have been the most active faults in the study area during the last 100 years and according to evaluations of active rate of faulting and earthquake based on fractal dimensions, generally set in category BD and their activity approved. The faults with very low slip rate and with long return period of earthquake, are possible causes of occurrence large earthquakes (856 AD) Gomes and inducement fault namely Damghan Fault is an example of these faults. The faults of Astaneh, Rameh and Cheshmeh-ali have been low slip rate and thereupon be able to develop high seismic moment rate. According to earthquake events in privacy of New faults introduced (Khorram-abad, Majid,…), the high activity rate of these faults seem logical

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Due to the increasing importance of geomorphologic conditions on the seismic ground response, the effect of liquefiable soils on seismic ground surface response is discussed. At first, the equivalent linear analysis based on total stress model in the frequency domain is carried out and then the nonlinear analyses based on total stress, effective stress model and considering the pore water pressure development in time domain are done in order to evaluate the differences between the several types of ground response analysis methods. DEEPSOIL.Ver5 software is used based on the latest achievements and various techniques in both solution domains. LNG port project in Assaluyeh, situated in south of Iran, is considered as a case study. Due to lack of the real data recorded near-field fault at the project site, the simulated method is used in order to create the artificial earthquake. Also three far-field earthquakes have been selected based on conventional seismic hazard studies for the seismic ground response analysis. Then, in order to better understanding of the obtained responses, the resulted responses spectra are compared with the acceleration design spectra provided in some valid codes. The result of this study indicates that the pulse effect in the horizontal component of acceleration perpendicular to the fault plane direction, affects severely the surface ground response of the near-field earthquake. The obtained results of the nonlinear modeling of the soil with excess pore water pressure build-up in the time-domain are extremely different from those of frequency-domain responses based on the equivalent linear method. In addition, because of the inherent linearity of equivalent linear analysis which can lead to spurious resonances in ground responses, the peak ground acceleration in the time-domain is lower than the frequency-domain.

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Soil nailing is a prevalent method for temporary or permanent stabilization of excavations which, if it is used for permanent purposes, the seismic study of these structures is important. There are a few physical models, with limited information available, for the study of behavior of soil nailed walls under earthquake loading. Numerical methods may be used for the study of effects of various parameters on the performance of soil nailed walls, and this technique has been used in the current paper. In this research, the effects of various parameters such as the spacing, configuration, and lengths of nails, and the height of wall on seismic displacement of soil nailed walls under the various earthquake excitations were studied. To investigate the effects of the configuration and the lengths of nails on the performance of these structures, two configurations of uniform and variable lengths of nails have been used. To study the effects of the spacing between nails and the height of the wall the spacings of 2 and 1.5 meters and the heights of 14, 20, and 26 meters have been considered. The seismic analysis has been carried out using the finite element software Plaxis 2D. To analyze the lengths' of nails, it was assumed that the safety factors of stability of different models are constant, and the limit equilibrium software GeoSlope was used. After specification of the lengths of nails based on constant safety factor of stability, the deformations of the models under several earthquakes records were analyzed, and recommendations were made on minimizing the deformations of soil nailed walls under seismic loading.

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In this paper, the bearing capacity of strip footings on fiber reinforced granular soil has been studied. The stress characteristics or slip line method has been used for the analysis. In the selected failure criterion, the orientation of the fibers are isotropic and fibers are not ruptured. Seismic effects have been considered in the equilibrium equations as the horizontal and vertical pseudo-static coefficients. The equilibrium equations have been solved using the finite difference method. The provided computer code can solve the stress characteristics network and calculate the bearing capacity. The bearing capacity has been presented as the bearing capacity factors due to the unit weight of the soil and surcharge. Several graphs have been prepared for the practical purposes. Also, a closed form solution has been presented for the bearing capacity factor due to the surcharge. By the parametric studies, the effects of the geometry and soil properties have been investigated. Results show that the bearing capacity increases with an increase on the average concentration and aspect ratio of the fibers, the fiber/matrix friction angle and the soil friction angle. Furthermore, the extent of the failure zone is increased with increasing the pseudo-static coefficients and decreasing the surcharge.

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Most of masonry buildings are vulnerable against earthquakes and need to be rehabilitated. One of the pragmatic methods for strengthening is to utilize shotcreting the masonry walls. In this paper the effects of the soil type (in view of seismic behavior) on the rehabilitation of the masonry building by shotcrete are investigated. Three types of masonry buildings are simulated by ABAQUS software and analyzed against three earthquake records to find their reporses and seismic demands. Using five types of shotcrete configuration consisted of shotcrete strips in vertical and horizontal directions for rehabilitation are studied to find the appropriate method for damage mitigation. The suitable method for rehabilitation are used to study the effects of soil type on the rehabilitated buildings. Three records of the Tabas (1979) earthquake which were recorded on different types of soils (Type I, II and III based on the Iranian seismic design regulations) are considered to analyze the sample masonry building. The results show that the shotcrete method is more effective for buildings which are relying on the softer soils and in stiff soils it is recommended to combine the shotcrete method with other rehabilitation methods which are able to strengthen the building without increasing the stiffness of the building, like utilizing post tensioning cables.

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Previous earthquakes have shown that topographic irregularities have significant impacts on the site seismic response and increasing structural damage by amplifying seismic responses. Studies on seismic behavior of slope topographic have shown that dynamic response of free field and soil-structure system is severely on the influence of topography shape and soil properties. Angle and height of slope, frequency of excitation, nonlinear behavior of soil and depth of bedrock are other parameters that affect on the response of the entire system. Furthermore the studies have shown that presence of structure adjacent to slope is very effective on variation of seismic behavior pattern of this topography but these studies are very limited. In this study the effect of existing structure adjacent to slope to seismic behavior pattern of slope topography have been investigated. The parameters that have studied in this article comprise slope angle and frequency content of excitation. The results show that the presence of structure adjacent to the slope, causes an increase to the response of free field and transmitting maximum response to distance away from structure position.

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This research is focused on an analytical approach to investigate the seismic performance of tall building under scaled near-field earthquake records. To achieve this objective, it is employs medium to high rise steel bundled-tube rigid frames. The examined structures are designed according to the Iranian seismic code 2800 (4th edition). To study the seismic response, groups of near field earthquake records with their associated properties are selected to perform non-linear time history analyses. The most important characteristic of the chosen near-field earthquake records is the presence of powerful long-term velocity pulses which distinguishes them from far-field earthquake records. The first part of the mentioned ensemble includes two recorded strong ground motions in Iran i.e. Tabas 1978 and Bam 2003, respectively and two powerful records of the Northridge 1994 earthquake. The second part contains one far-field record of the Northridge 1994 earthquake. The selected records are scaled based on the Iranian seismic code 2800 (3rd and 4th editions). The characteristics of seismic performance of each structural model, including maximum relative displacement of each story, seismic base shear and the formation of plastic hinges in the resistant skeleton have been carefully evaluated. The results indicate that using the 4th edition of the Iranian seismic code 2800 produces noticeably lower values of scale factor and their associated seismic responses in the studied structures as well as the nonlinear demand of the main load bearing members under scaled records with those factors, compared to the corresponding analytical cases based on the 3rd edition of the Iranian seismic code 2800. According to the results of this study, the rate of the drift parameter variations of structures that have been evaluated on the basis of seismic code 4th edition in comparison with the seismic code 2800 are experiencing a relative reduction about 30%.

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In the narrow geosynthetic-reinforced retaining walls a stable rear wall exists in a short distance and so there is no enough space to extend appropriate length of reinforcements. In this case, the probability of overturning of retaining wall increases especially when subjected to earthquake loading. To increase the stability of the wall, reinforcements may be connected to the stable rear surface. Alternative solution is the utilization of full-height cast in-place concrete facing in order to resist the earth pressure by combined actions of reinforcements pullout capacity and facing flexural rigidity. One of the main questions about this type of walls is the portion of earth pressure resisted by the facing. In this study, the seismic earth pressure of narrow geosynthetic-reinforced backfill on rigid facing was evaluated using limit equilibrium approach and horizontal slices method. The critical failure surface was assumed to extend linearly from the wall toe to the rear surface and then moves along the interface of the backfill and rear surface up to the backfill surface. The effects of various parameters such as wall aspect ratio have been investigated. The obtained results show that the applied soil pressure on wall facing will be increased with depth in the upper part of the wall according to the Mononobe-Okabe equation, but its pattern is inversed in the lower part of the wall and it decreases until it reaches to zero at the wall toe. The results of analyses indicate that the attracted soil thrust by the facing increases with lessening of backfill width.

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 IExtended Abstract
 Introduction
The Iranian plateau is situated in the Alpine-Himalayan orogeny between the Eurasian plate in the north and the Arabian plate in the south. It is being shortened by the northward movement of the Arabian plate, which causes the most parts of Iran to be active and dynamic in terms of tectonic movements. The recent tectonic activity in the southern edge of central Alborz causes both development and deformation of the tectonically active landforms. Seismic records indicate a high frequency of earthquakes of relatively small magnitude (<4) and infrequent large earthquakes (>5.1) in the Alborz. The studied area is located in the southern central Alborz and at the edge of northwestern central Iran between seismic faults of Ipak (with approximately E-W trend) and Avaj (with NW-SE trend) that includes significant earthquakes. Generally, the dominant tectonic structures of the study area involve thrust faults. The Ipak fault is one of the major fault systems in the area, located about 120 km west of Tehran, and caused the 1962 Buin Zahra earthquake of Ms 7.2 (Mw 7.0). The earthquake was associated with 95 km surface rupture along the Ipak reverse fault with average throw of 140 cm and left-lateral displacement of 60 cm. This investigation has evaluated the active tectonics and the acceleration zoning of the region in order to analyze and measure the recent tectonic activities.
Material and methods
To assess the acceleration zoning of this region, seismic data, Kijko software, PSHA software and reduction equations were used; consequently, minimum and maximum acceleration for useful life of 75-year and 475-year building were estimated. In order to assess the relative tectonic activity through the study area, sub-basins and stream network were extracted by using Arc Hydro Tools software based on the DEM and in turn, 134 sub-basins have been resulted. The six geomorphologic indices were used as follow: Stream length–gradient index (SL), mountain front Sinuosity (Smf), Ratio of valley floor width to valley height (Vf), Asymmetric factor (Af), Hypsometric integral (Hi) and drainage Basin shape (Bs). Eventually, after calculating the relative tectonic activity index (Iat), the studied area was classified into four tectonic activity classes in ArcGIS10.1 as very high, high, medium and low.
Stream Length–Gradient Index (SL): The SL index indicates an equation between erosive processing as streams and rivers flow and active tectonics. The SL is defined by Eq. (1) 
SL= (∆H/∆Lr) Lsc                                        (1)
where ΔH is change in altitude, ΔLr is the length of a reach, and Lsc is the horizontal length from the watershed divide to midpoint of the reach. The SL index can be used to evaluate relative tectonic activity.  The quantities of the SL index were computed along the streams for all sub-basins.
Index of Mountain Front Sinuosity (Smf):  Index of mountain front sinuosity is defined by Equation (2). 
Smf = Lmf ⁄ Ls                                             (2)
where Lmf is the length of the mountain front along the foot of the mountain in which a change in slope from the mountain to the piedmont occurs; and Ls is the straight line length of the mountain front. Smf represents a balance between erosive processes tending to erode a mountain front, making it more sinuous through streams that cut laterally and into the front and active vertical tectonics that tends to produce straight mountain fronts, often coincidental with active faults or folds.
Ratio of Valley Floor Width to Valley Height (Vf): Vf is defined as the ratio of the width of the valley floor to its average height and is computed by Equation (3).
Vf = Vfw/ [(Ald-Asc) + (Ard-Asc) /2)]                            (3)
where Vfw is the width of the valley floor, and A_ld, A_rd, and A_sc are the altitudes of the left and right divides (looking downstream) and the stream channel, respectively. A significant relationship exists between the rate of mountain front activity and the Vf index. Consequently, the high Vf values conform to low uplift rates (Keller and Pinter 2002). The shape of a valley can also represent the Vf amount and uplift rate. Therefore, U-shaped valleys accommodate low Vf and high uplift.
Asymmetric Factor (Af): The asymmetric factor (Af) is a way to evaluate the existence of tectonic tilting at the scale of a drainage basin. The method may be applied over a relatively large area. Af is defined by Equation (4).
Af= 100(Ar/At)                                                   (4)
where Ar is the area of the basin to the right (facing downstream) of the trunk stream and At is the total area of the drainage basin. If the value of this factor is close to 50, the basin has a stable condition with little or tilting; while values above or below 50 may result from basin tilting, resulting from tectonic activity or other geological conditions such as lithological structure.
Hypsometric integral (Hi): The hypsometric integral is an index that describes the distribution of the elevation of a given area or a landscape. The Hi is independent of basin area. This index is defined as the area below the hypsometric curve and thus expresses the volume of a basin that has not been eroded. A simple equation that may be used to calculate the index is defined by Equation (5).
Hi = (average elevation - min. elev.) / (max. elev. - min. elev.)  (5)
Then Hi values were grouped into three classes with respect to the convexity or concavity of the hypsometric curve: Class 1 with convex hypsometric curves (Hi≥0.5); Class 3 with concave hypsometric curves (Hi<0.4); and Class 2 with concave–convex hypsometric curves (0.4≤Hi<0.5).
Index of Drainage Basin Shape (Bs): Horizontal projection of basin shape may be described by the elongation ratio, Bs, expressed by Eqation (6):
Bs = Bl/Bw                                        (6)
where Bl is the length of the basin measured from the headwaters to the mouth, and Bw is the width of the basin measured at its widest point. High values of Bs are associated with elongated basins, generally related to relatively higher tectonic activity. Low values of Bs indicate a more circular-shaped basin, generally associated with low tectonic activity.
Evaluation of Relative Tectonic Activity (Iat): The average of the six measured geomorphic indices (Iat) was used to evaluate the distribution of relative tectonic activity in the study area. The values of the index were divided into four classes to define the degree of active tectonics.
Results and discussions
Results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis have shown that the minimum and the maximum acceleration for useful life of 75-year building is estimated as 0.33g and 0.45g and for 475-year one are 0.46g and 0.60g, respectively. These values are indicative of high risk in the studied area. Acquired values from geomorphologic indices and also acceleration zoning of the realm are indicative of high recent tectonic activities near Ipak, Hasanabad, Soltaniyeh and Avaj faults; they are extremely concordant with the obtained evidences and geomorphologic characteristics of the field samples. In this study, considering the diversity of the morphotectonic features, six morphometric indices relevant to the river channels, drainage basins, and mountain fronts were computed for every catchment, and consequently, a single index (Iat) was calculated from the these indices for each of 134 subbasins to define the degree of active tectonics. Finally, the Index of the Active Tectonic (Iat) was calculated through which the study area is classified into four tectonic activity classes, from very high to low; 1—very high (1.0≤Iat<1.5); 2—high (1.5≤Iat<2.0); 3—moderate (2.0≤Iat<2.5); and 4—low (2.5≤Iat). The distribution of the four classes of Iat has been presented in a well classified map. The indices have represented a quantitative approach to differential geomorphic analysis related to erosion and depositional processes which include the river channel and valley morphology as well as tectonically derived features, such as fault scarps. We also evaluated the outputs of the morphometric analyses based on field-based geomorphological observations. Thus, these results are proved to be extremely beneficial to evaluate relative rates of active tectonics of this region.
The values of Af show widespread drainage basin asymmetry related to tectonic tilting, particularly associated with Ipak fault. The values of Smf suggest that mountain fronts are tectonically active, and the values of Vf show that some valleys are narrow and deep, suggesting a high rate of incision. The parts with class 1 and 2 of the relative tectonic activity are located along the main faults of the region, such as Soltaniyeh, Avaj, Hasanabad and Ipak faults and show high correlation with observed landforms during the field investigations such as the direct mountain fronts, fault gorges, fault scarps, and deep v-shaped valleys. Besides, the high amount of the relative active tectonic index shows a good consistency with the recent tectonic activity, namely tilting and deformation of the Quaternary units, which is the indicative of the effect of compressive stresses, affecting the region.
Conclusion
In this study, according to the current tectonic activity using the Iat index, it was found that the study region represents a high current tectonic activity along the fault zones. The values of SL, Hi, and Bs were found to be high along Soltaniyeh, Avaj, Hasanabad and Ipak faults segments.
According to the earthquakes and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in the study area, it can be said is worthy to note that some basins which are located among active faults, are seismically dangerous.  However, they show low relative active tectonic index (Iat)../files/site1/files/121/AleeiAbstract(1).pdf

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Introduction
 Analysis of time, location and magnitude of foreshocks and aftershocks has been one of the most important cases for experts in various scientific fields such as: seismology, structural engineering and crisis management, and other interrelated fields. Since this analysis and the result of studies on seismotectonic and cases of earthquakes help us identify the foreshocks and aftershocks with the goal of decreasing losses and nervious stress of the injured community in quake-stricken areas and skilled crisis management. The cause fault of earthquake plays the important role in foreshocks and aftershocks of the earthquake. So, study on fault behaviour is a suitable method for analyzing and routing the basic parameters of foreshocks and aftershocks. Also, foreshocks and aftershock are important parts of any earthquake in a seismic area. The analysis of the basic parameters of the foreshocks is one of the most practical researches for reducing the risk of earthquakes. The identification of behavioral pattern of foreshocks can help researchers detect the active fault conditions for the occurrence of earthquakes in different areas. The present study is concerned with the study of behavioral patterns earthquakes, foreshocks, and aftershock of Zohan earthquake. Experience of large aftershocks in different parts of the world indicates that, following earthquakes and depending on seismic-tectonic conditions, large aftershocks are likely to occur in the earthquake-effected zone, which will aggravate the damage caused by earthquakes (Omi et al., 2013). The main factor contributing to the worsening of damage caused by aftershocks is the performance of structures that are weakened but not destroyed by main earthquakes and are, thus, highly likely to be destroyed by large aftershocks (Saket and Fatemi Aghda, 2006).
Material and methods
The present paper makes use of data collected in a real earthquake and similar expriences in other earthquakes for presenting a practical pattern for predicting primary earthquake patterns, determining the location, magnitude, and time of aftershocks. The target of this case is decreasing the effects of earthquake. To this end, we used the results from studies on basic parameters of foreshocks and aftershocks of Zohan earthquake, and 2012 earthquake in South Khorasan province. The rationale for selecting the aforementioned studies is: location of event, the Zohan earthquake, had been identificated as an area with high risk for the occurrence of earthquakes, although there has been no wide-scale earthquake in this area in the last two decades. These conditions are important causes for more concentrated studies on this area because there is a high chance for wide-scale earthquakes striking this area.
Result and Discussion
In this part of research, we conduct a study on the location, magnitude and depth of foeshocks. Some of the world-wide research suggested that these data can help to predict the time of  mainshocks. Studies conducted on the variations of frequency in foreshocks can follow this goal.
In this paper, the available statistical data such as periodical variations of seismicity in the weeks leading up to the main shock can be used as a tool for estimating the approximate time of a future important earthquake. The weekly variations of seismicity before Zohan earthquake indicate a relative increase and then decrease within a 100 km radius around the epicenter of the main shock.
 
Table 1: Variations of frequency of foreshock based magnitude before Zohan earthquake

Week before main shock	Frequency of foreshock in the Radius of 100Km from main shock	Frequency of foreshock(with M>2.5) in the Radius of 100Km from main shock
6	0	0
5	1	1
4	1	0
3	2	0
2	5	3
1	2	0

 
Studies on numerous earthquakes in Iran and other regions in the world show that the distribution of aftershocks can be related to fault type or the direction of principal stress (Saket and Fatemi Aghda, 2006) and (King et al., 1994). Whereas maximum Coulomb stress change is related to maximum principal stress in earthquakes, the concentration of aftershocks can coincide with the direction of maximum principal stress (σ₁) of the causative fault in mainshock. Considering the direction of maximum principal stress and its adaptation to the scattering of aftershocks, the above hypothesis is confirmed.
Also studies on frequency changes and seismic quiescence of small aftershocks help us in predicting future aftershocks. The results the of presented research by Itawa (2008) on the World earthquake catalogue suggest that seismic quiescence theory is true for different regions of the world. Based on the results of the  study mentioned above, this case can be used as a tool for predicting large aftershocks in Zohan earthquake.

Fig 1. Adaptation of direction of maximum principal stress with scatering of the aftershocks of Zohan earthquake. a: direction of maximum principal stress (σ₁) of the causative fault in mainshock. b- scaterring of the aftershocks
Table 2: Seismic sequience versus magnitude of aftershocks

Row	Seismic Quiescence for aftershocks	Aftershock Magnitude	Data and Time of aftershocks
1	13	3.0	2012/12/05 17:21:03
2	36	3.4	2012/12/05 17:57:03
3	161	3.1	2012/12/05 20:38:09
4	3906	3.9	2012/12/08 13:44:19

In addation, frequency of aftershocks and certain time distance (seismic quiescence) between their can use precursors for detecting the time of large aftershocks. The relevant analysis in this study showed that methods such as: time series beside seismic quiescence can help in conducting a more accurate time forecast of large aftershocks.
Conclusion

• The results of this research suggest that we can identify some of the charactristics of the main shock by focusing on location, magnitude and depth of foeshocks.
• In Zohan earthquake, the direction of maximum principal stress is adpated to the scattering of aftershocks, and this case suggests that there is a specific relationship between them.
• The relevant analysis in this study showed that the methods such as: time series beside seismic quiescence can help conduct a more accurate time forecast of large aftershocks../files/site1/files/144/saket.pdf

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