Objective: This study aims to identify key challenges influencing the formation of knowledge-based businesses, with a focus on their development and commercialization in rural areas using the cross-impact matrix approach and scenario planning methodology.
Methods: This study is applied in its objective and employs a qualitative survey method. The statistical sample includes 75 rural business owners and 25 experts, selected based on the principle of theoretical saturation.
Findings: Using content analysis, 54 challenges were identified and categorized into six major groups: 1. Human Resource Management, 2. Taxation and Customs Regulations, 3. Marketing and Sales, 4. Licensing and Supervision, 5. Financial Issues and Market Supply & Demand, 6. Intellectual Property System. Among these, 44 challenges were validated using the fuzzy Delphi technique. The impact of key variables was assessed through MICMAC software, and future commercialization scenarios for rural knowledge-based businesses in Iran were generated using Scenario Wizard software. Out of the 12 identified scenarios, the seventh scenario was deemed the most optimal, as all key drivers were in a favorable state. However, two scenarios: 1. Utilizing customer surveys to understand consumer preferences (E2), 2. Leveraging multiple platforms and channels for advertising (F2) remained in an intermediate position.
Conclusions: The golden scenario extracted in this research revolves around training professional, problem-solving, and creative individuals to address destabilizing risks in the commercialization of rural knowledge-based businesses.
