Introduction
Rural tourism is a sustainable form of rural development that utilizes the resources available in rural areas. However, due to geographical isolation and lack of benefits, these areas often have untapped potential. This lack of development prevents strengthening of social and economic foundations within local communities. Regarding tourism planning in certain areas, previous research has focused on identifying important factors and drivers. However, there is a lack of certainty surrounding regional development in the planning process. To address this, planners and scenario writers can use these factors as a control mechanism to map and manage the desired future.
Methodology
The purpose of this research is to create scenarios that will help determine the factors that impact the growth of rural tourism in Urmia County. The study will use the Wizard scenario to identify key variables that contribute to sustainable tourism in the villages within the county. Ultimately, the goal is to develop scenarios that will enhance the feasibility of sustainable rural tourism development. The purpose, application, and type of research method used in this study are descriptive-analytical. The nature of the data collected is qualitative, and the method of data collection is through field research. The questionnaire tool was implemented in two stages, and data analysis was conducted using future research techniques and the Mick Mac software, along with interaction analysis. In general, the working method has been done in two main stages in this research. Twenty professionals with expertise in the subject were selected for a statistical sample. They were provided with a questionnaire to complete. After careful consideration of the experts' opinions and research, it was determined that there are 36 significant indicators in 5 different components: economic (9 indicators), socio-cultural (8 indicators), managerial (7 indicators), natural (8 indicators), and infrastructure (4 indicators). During this study, it was found that out of the 36 indicators examined, several key factors drive tourism development in the rural regions of Urmia County.
Discussion and Conclusion
In this study, we created scenarios by considering critical uncertainties, predetermined drivers, and the impact of key obstacles. The result of this process was three scenarios. One scenario depicts a promising and favorable situation, another is static and intermediate, and the third portrays a critical and undesirable situation. Out of the three scenarios, scenario number two has the most favorable conditions for tourism in the villages of Urmia County. This scenario is considered the best because all possible situations are desirable. Out of the 36 possible situations, 16.6% are critical, 11.11% are relatively critical or on the brink of a crisis, 13.88% are relatively favorable, and 58.33% are very good. 27.77% faced unfavorable circumstances, while 72.23% had favorable ones. The second scenario is the most optimal, as all the crucial factors are at their best. This scenario comprises seven highly desirable situations, two moderately desirable ones, one on the brink of crisis, and two critical situations. In Scenario No. 1, there are several possible states. Seven of these states are ideal, one is good, one is risky, and two are critical. The factors in this scenario are stable. Five situations are entirely positive, three that are somewhat positive, one that is risky, and three that are critical. In these critical situations, the key factors are likely unfavorable compared to their desired state.
After analyzing the potential outcomes in three categories - favorable, static, and undesirable -, it is clear that the strong research scenarios lead to more favorable conditions than any other category. These scenarios provide a promising future for tourism in the villages of Urmia. By acknowledging the strengths and limitations present, better planning for rural tourism in Urmia can be achieved. Improving this trend will have a direct and indirect positive impact on the future development of tourism in the region
