fa بررسی شدیدترین طغیان‌های متداوم ماهانه )اکتبر- مارس( طی دوره آماری 2021-1989 در ایران تخصصي Special كاربردي Applicable <span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="direction:rtl"><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">چکیده</span></span></span></b></span></span></span></span></span><br> <span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span style="direction:rtl"><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><span style="font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">سیل ناگهانی، یکی از خطرناکترین رویدادهای طبیعی است و اغلب باعث تلفات جانی و آسیب به زیر ساخت‌ها و محیط زیست می شود. در این پژوهش، رخداد شدیدترین طغیان‌های متداوم ماهانه (اکتبر- مارس) در بازه 2021-1989 </span></span></span></b><b>&nbsp;</b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">بررسی شد.</span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"> داده‌های بارش </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">115 </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">ایستگاه سینوپتیک انتخاب شد. سپس مجموع بارش‌های </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">1</span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">تا </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">9</span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"> روزه بر اساس شدت، مرتب گردید. با استفاده از نرم افزار آماری مینی‌تب و شاخص آندرسن دارلینگ، بارش‌های شدید بر اساس صدک نود و پنجم، </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">ا</span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">ستخراج شد. سپس بر اساس معیار‌های بیشترین و کمترین &nbsp;تعداد روزهای بارشی، بیشترین و کمترین &nbsp;بارش تجمعی ریزش کرده، مرطوب‌ترین و خشک ترین ماه&shy;ها مشخص گردید. با در نظر گرفتن سه معیار شدت، تداوم و فراگیری بارش، قوی&shy;ترین توفان‌های رخداده در مرطوب&shy;ترین ماه&shy;ها انتخاب شد. داده‌های مورد استفاده، جهت بررسی&nbsp; همدیدی، شامل داده‌های فشار سطح متوسط دریا، ارتفاع و مولفه قائم باد تراز</span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"> 500</span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"> هکتوپاسکال، میدان باد و نم ویژه ترازهای فشاری </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">925</span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">، </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">850</span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"> و </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">700</span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"> هکتوپاسکال و مقادیر شار افقی نم ویژه سطح فشاری </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">925</span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">،</span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"> 850 </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">و</span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"> 700 </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">هکتوپاسکال می&shy;باشند. احتمال رخداد رودخانه‌های جوی توسط شار رطوبت مستخرج از مولفه‌های رطوبت ویژه، باد مداری و نصف النهاری شناسایی شدند. نتایج نشان داد؛ توفان‌های </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">27</span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">تا </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">31</span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"> اکتبر </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">2015</span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">، </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">5تا 7</span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"> نوامبر</span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"> 1994، 12تا 16</span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"> دسامبر </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">1991</span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">، </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">11</span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"> تا </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">15</span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"> ژانویه</span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"> 2004</span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">،</span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"> 3 تا 9 فوریه 1993</span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"> و </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">13</span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">تا </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">15</span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"> مارس</span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"> 1996</span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"> شدیدترین توفان ها در مرطوب&shy;ترین ماه&shy;ها بوده&shy;اند. </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">انتقال رطوبت در توفان‌های اکتبر، نوامبر، فوریه و مارس از جنوب&shy;غرب دریای سرخ توسط رودخانه‌های جوی، به نوار غربی، جنوبغرب، جنوب و جنوبشرق ایران انجام &nbsp;شده است. </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin""></span></span></span></b></span></span></span></span></span><br> &nbsp; <span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">Flash floods are one of the most dangerous natural events and often cause loss of life and damage to infrastructure and the environment. This research investigated the occurrence of the most intense continuous monthly floods (October-March) from 1989 to 2021. Precipitation data from 115 synoptic stations were selected. Then, the total rainfall of 1 to 9 days was sorted according to intensity. Using Minitab statistical software and the Andersen-Darling index, heavy rains were extracted based on the 95th percentile. Then, based on the criteria of the highest and lowest number of rainy days, the highest and lowest accumulated rainfall, the wettest and driest months were determined. Considering the three criteria of intensity, continuity, and rainfall coverage, the strongest storms in the wettest months were selected. The data used for synoptic analysis include the average sea level pressure data, the height and vertical component of the wind at 500 hPa, the wind and humidity field specific to the pressure levels 925, 850, and 700 hPa, and the horizontal moisture flux values specific to the pressure level 925, 850 and 700 hPa. The probability of the occurrence of atmospheric rivers was identified by the moisture flux extracted from the specific, meridional, and meridional wind components. The results showed that the storms of October 27-31, 2015, November 5-7, 1994, December 12-16, 1991, January 11-15, 2004, February 3-9, 1993, and March 13-15, 1996 were the strongest in the wettest months. During the storms of October, November, February, and March, moisture has been transported from the southwest of the Red Sea by atmospheric rivers to the western, southwestern, southern, and southeastern regions of Iran.</span></span></span></span></span></span><br> &nbsp; بارش‌های متداوم, مرطوب ترین ماه, شار افقی نم ویژه, انتقال رطوبت, ایران. Continuous Rainfall, Wettest Month, Horizontal Flux of Specific Moisture, Moisture Transfer, Iran. 53 76 http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-1532-2&slc_lang=fa&sid=1 mozhgan shahriyari مژگان شهریاری Shahmojgan52@gmail.com 100319475328460011947 100319475328460011947 No University of Lorestan دانشگاه لرستان mostafa karampoor مصطفی کرمپور karampoor.m@lu.ac.ir 100319475328460011948 100319475328460011948 Yes University of Lorestan دانشگاه لرستان hoshang ghaemi هوشنگ قائمی Hoo_ghaemi@yahoo.com 100319475328460011949 100319475328460011949 No Atmospheric Science and Meteorological Research Cente پژوهشگاه هواشناسی علوم جو تهران dariush yarahmadi داریوش یاراحمدی d.yarahmadi@gmail.com 100319475328460011950 100319475328460011950 No University of Lorestan دانشگاه لرستان mohammad moradi محمد مرادی moradim36@gmail.com 100319475328460011951 100319475328460011951 No Atmospheric Science and Meteorological Research Cente پژوهشگاه هواشناسی و علوم جو تهران