Journal of Spatial Analysis

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The Iranian plateau formed by the active tectonics of the Alpine-Himalayan belt, is situated between the Eurasian and Arabian plates. The plateau is considered as one of the most seismically active regions in the world and is faced with different earthquakes each year. Active tectonic conditions, different faults and seismic sources and a large population in earthquake-prone areas makes it necessary to perform more considerations and scientific studies in order to analyze the seismic hazards and risks.

In this paper, different aspects and effects of the Iranian seismicity has been determined. In order to review the status of seismicity and distribution of earthquakes in Iran, we need first to consider the tectonic setting, structural environment and the active faults of the country. To date, there have been some different studies to divide the the seismotectonic setting of Iran into different seismic zones which are explained in this paper briefly. Moreover, the seismicity and most destructive past earthquakes in the Iranian plateau and distribution of earthquakes are shown.

    One of the most important tools in studying earthquakes is to perform continuous recording and monitoring of the seismic event and ground motions which is implemented using seismic and strong motion networks. The systematic networks have been set up within the country and are working and responsible for data collection and monitoring of seismic events permanently. These networks including the Iranian Seismological Center (IRSC), broadband seismic network of the International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES) and strong motion network of the Road and Housing and Urban Development Research Center (BHRC) are also introduced in the current study.

Given the high seismicity rate in Iran and rapid development and growing of the populated cities and buildings on seismic hazard prone areas, attention to seismic hazard and risk assessments has been become as a particular issue that should be addressed carefully. Therefore, seismic hazard analysis and estimation for the constructions of human structures has become an enforcement for which several seismic regulations and codes have been defined. In this regard, deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard methods have been developed as the two most important techniques. The deterministic method is a conservative approach that is mostly used to determine the highest level of strong ground motion (acceleration) for a special site (such as dams and power plants). On the other hand, the probabilistic method provides probabilities of different strong ground motion levels considering different uncertainties and the useful life of a structure.

    In addition, considering the level of seismic hazard in a region and its population can lead to risk assessment, vulnerability and resiliency of the human societies. Thus, parallel to seismic hazard and risk analysis, it is so important to conduct crisis management, reduce efforts and a continuing assessment of the situation in the country. In the present study, problems and challenges facing the crisis management, as well as urban distressed areas are mentioned.

    Regarding the existence of constant threat of natural disasters, especially high risk of earthquakes, there is a serious need to conduct more scientific researches in various fields, including detailed research on various aspects of seismology in Iran, retrofitting of constructions, crisis management and disaster risk reduction. To achieve this purpose, we need a scientific network in Iran. There sould be several experts and organizations as the members of this network who are able to understand and control the earthquake effects on the society. Necessity of such a scientific network is due to that it is impossible to take efforts in order to reduce the earthquake risks without a holistic perspective and earthquake data completion.

In this regard, we need significant infrastructures in terms of human resources and technical cooperation to motivate a set of organizations, universities and research institutes. The responsible organizations such as geological survey of Iran, National Cartographic Center of Iran, meteorological organization, Institute of Geophysics of the University of Tehran, International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Road and Housing and Urban Development Research Center, National Disaster Management Organization, Red Crescent Society of the Islamic Republic of Iran, as well as universities and NGOs must work together to make it possible to review and integrate the existence potentials and to share the information and data of the earthquakes in Iran and define various response scenarios faceing natural disasters, especially earthquakes.

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With the development of economy and social services, increased need to reduce risks, control risks and other important measures in order to provide program management and follow-up plans vulnerability, Having the right information and understanding the current situation in the field is essential for  prevention and planning measures, Therefore, research on risk reduction and knowledge of threats in the Arangeh region is essential, as one of the areas tourist attraction regions in Karaj's catchment area.

Geomorphology of River studies landforms and processes of river and predict changes using models and field studies and laboratory. And new analytical tools and techniques, growing and expanding with the help of river engineering.

    This eventually leads to gain new capabilities in the field of river management, landscape restoration, risks and geomorphological studies ancient river.

     In most cases geomorphological processes that are created by river systems, are causing environmental hazards of natural and human environments. In this paper, we have investigated the risks of geomorphic processes, especially risks of flooding and river flooding and is calculated for the maximum flood discharge for subarea also. In this article, it has been found that most of the flood will be calculated based on the map of the geomorphology of the area and the discharge sub basin. The purpose of this study, is  assessing damages caused by the flood risks in the area. It is obvious that the results of this study will enable the pre-crisis phase of the crisis management system and can help to tourism and physical planning in the area.

     Arangeh basin is an area of 10,090 hectares and a maximum height of 3665, at least 1637 m and average height of 2689 m. Arangeh area have an  annual precipitation about 785 mm. Arangeh watershed is located within the northern city of Karaj, 15 km Karaj Branch, Karaj Dam east side of the river and inferiors (Amir Kabir).

     In this study, to analyze the flood in the basin,  a variety of sources are used including surveys of library data and documents, topographic base map scale of 1: 25,000 geological map of 1: 100000 taken from the ground geological, climatic data obtained from meteorological Organization, hydrological data obtained from regional water Alborz Landsat satellite image.Also field visits, the use of GPS and GIS software Arc GIS Version 10 was main parts of the survey.

      The calculated concentration time by Krpych method to estimate the flood of data base, then estimate is based on a regional analysis of runoff and peak discharge of flood.

     According to Hydrogeomorphic properties basin unit (sub-21) has the maximum flood discharge which is mostly covered by alluvium and located on the ground impermeable siltstone, waterways due to morphological features steep, mountainous dominant morphology, concentration time low basin, poverty and lack of vegetation (about 15 and 50 cubic meters per second in the 50 and 100-year return period). Other sub-basin with high flood discharge of sub No. 3, 5,7,9,12,14 and 16 are in Central, East, North, East and South of the basin villages.

      Many parts of the Arangeh basin has slopes of more than 60%, which is an important factor in the effect of runoff, reducing the time of concentration, poor soil and vegetation and is an important factor aggravating flood risk and erosion. The presence of vegetation in these areas can have an important effect in obstructing runoff, reduce the rate of runoff, reducing flooding and consequently the reduction of soil erosion. We can largely control the flood basin watershed management practices and proper management range in the above units.

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Among the various environmental hazards, flood is the greatest and most important climate crisis which takes every year the lives of thousands people and impose severe damages on human society and environment. Today, it is clear that controlling all hazards, including floods is not possible. Suitable management can only minimize the damages. The literature on natural disasters management indicated that in the process of natural disaster management and their vulnerability mitigation, there are two dominant paradigm: technic-based approach and community-based approach.

Community-based approach welcome the local cooperation and participation in disaster management process and calls for strengthening local capacity through the participation of all individuals and groups at the local level. This approach is not only appropriate to provide solutions for disaster reduction, but build disaster preparedness. Because disaster preparedness planning requires special attention to local participation. In the geographic area of Bashar River Basin, due to the lack of suitable agricultural land and greater quantity of water for rice crop, villages have been built at rivers edge. So that, most of the houses and farms in the villages are located very close to the river. However, these locations are extremely vulnerable to flooding. This study reviews the status of local participation and its impact on reducing flood risks. Also, this research focuses on factors influencing local community trends and choices in the participation rate.

This study is applied research in terms of purpose and uses descriptive-analytical method. According to the nature of the study, data were collected through fieldwork and library research methods using observation, interview, questionnaire and evaluation card techniques. To understand different characteristics of community, Likert scale and one-sample t-test were used and measurement scale for data was ordinal. Also. The method of selective experimental approach based on profit was taken to evaluate the level of different trends in Community's financial participation for reducing detrimental effects of flood. To recognize the community awareness and perception toward flood risk and the probability of its occurrence in the future, the willingness level to participation and to explore the effective factors on villager’s decisions and to utilize modern management techniques the selective experimental approach based on evaluation card and logit model were employed.

The results of statistical analysis showed that in the study area, 86.5% of the community have experienced the damages caused by flooding and forecasted the likelihood of heightened chance of flooding in the future. Finding showed that although the people use traditional methods for managing flood, but they tend to employ modern methods such as dam building for reducing flood risk. This help them to increase the safety factor for their locations and farm lands. In spite of the fact that the villagers expressed the higher safety factor for new management methods such as (dam building, river broadening and preventing the destruction of forest and environment), but it seems that improper functioning, adverse consequences (environmental and socio-economic) of projects implementation (dam building) as well as the inability of villager's financial participation (high cost of this kind of methods), are barriers to using them for lowering the flood risks and damages.

The review of the possible role of some intervening variables to predict local communities' participation in decision-making processes showed that low-income, old age of the samples with high average (47.61) and education with lower average (3.16) are the most important factors influencing community decision making. The results of binominal logit model showed that the proposed variables is significant at the 5% level. If the offer price increase, the chance of residents' acceptance of participation will decrease and vice versa.

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Iran, due to its geographical location and its human and environmental characteristics including those at risk of natural hazards there. In the area northwestern Iran, Zanjan city in three dangerous fault ,Zanjan in the north, fault Soltanieh in south and Byatlar located in West And based on a hazard map for earthquake country, prepared by the International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology as well as Based on Earthquake Resistant Design of Buildings (Regulations 2800) prepared by the Research Center, Department of Housing and Urban Development and Urban Country, the relative risk of high-grade is zone. A major part of the Physical structures of Zanjan in recent decades regardless of the strength and stability of the regulations, such as Regulations 2800 is applied.On the other hand the lack of required data, including geometric and non-geometric data of the infrastructure and buildings in the city Such as the problems that have not been noted. Accordingly, this study examines the relationship between resilience Zanjan city's Against Earthquake And indicators and factors affecting resilience Physical and infrastructure to identify And will evaluate the resiliency Physical and infrastructure in the city of the study.

The results of scientific and experimental studies in the field of natural hazards and the head of the earthquake, in the last few decades shows That the best way to deal with these risks, is be more resilient settlement in different dimensions. Settlements in risk reduction approach, resilient system that can temporarily or permanently absorb risks And with conditions changing rapidly, adapted without losing its function.

In this study, the analysis and evaluation; the region and evaluation criteria include Quality building, types of structures building, Old building, facade building, building density,  particle size distribution and land use compatibility. With the explanation that in the analysis of the dimensions and physical infrastructure and support multi-criteria decision-making methods (model Todim) and produced for the processing of the above mentioned methods, is used Arc GIS software. This study is applied and in terms of methodology, quantitative comparative and analytical. This study from to goal ,applied and in terms of methodology, quantitative- comparative and analytical.

International :::union::: strategy for disaster risk reduction program titled "Strengthening the resilience of nations and communities to disasters" in the Hyogo Framework for 2005 to 2015 plan adopted, The program, in addition to reducing vulnerability of communities in crisis, will tend to increase and improve the resilience of communities.

Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) to motivate more active at the global level in the wake of the International Decade for Disaster Reduction natural framework (2000-1990) and Yokohama Strategy adopted in 1994 and the International Strategy on Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) in 1999, was formed. After the Hyogo Framework period (2015-2005) in order to improve the resilience of nations and communities to disaster, Sendai framework (2030-2015) aimed at the Third World Conference of the United Nations Disaster Risk Reduction in Sendai, Japan in dated March 18, 2015 was adopted.

Generally, in this paper, according to the definitions and objectives resilience, resilience include: 1. The destruction and damage that a system can absorb, without being out of equilibrium, 2. The ability of a system to organize and self-renewal in different situations and 3. Create and increasing learning capacity and strengthen the system's ability to cope with the situation.

In this study, the analysis and evaluation; district and Evaluation criteria include the quality, type of structure, building, old building, the facade of the building, building density, particle size distribution and consistent user. With the explanation that in the analysis of the dimensions and physical infrastructure and support multi-criteria decision-making methods (Todim,s model) And for processing materials produced by the above mentioned methods, GIS software ARC GIS, is used. Todim,s technique is one of the techniques used to solve multi-criteria decision making problems. The technique using pairwise comparisons among decision criteria, accidental incompatibilities of this comparisons to remove it. In this study, according to seven criteria affecting the physical dimensions and infrastructure (quality building, building structures, old building, the facade of the building, building density, particle size distribution and consistent user) to assess the resilience of the 24 districts in Zanjan, a matrix of 24 * 7 production was.

After performing calculations according to the formulas described in steps 1 and 2 of this technique, the performance of each supplier to obtain. Finally, according to the formula Step 3 to obtain the minimum and maximum for each criterion to rank the areas according to the values 0 and 1 action. The highest value obtained from the best available option. This study is applied and in terms of methodology, quantitative comparative and analytical.

Our results can be inferred from That regions corresponding to the North and East of Zanjan due to Old low and relatively new texture That neighborhoods Zibashahr, Amirkabir and PayenKoh, Golestan Andishe and Daneshgah alley, Golshahr Kazemieh, poonak, Vahidieh and Ansarieh covered And most have regular access to the local system and network resilience were presented. But the central and southern parts of city, That old and historic neighborhoods such as Hosseinieh and Bazar, Yidde Borogh, Yery mosque and Dbaghlar are included ,Because of Ancient and worn out textur and also Islamabad Neighborhoods, trans and Bisim, Fatmieh as problematic texture, the degree of resilience of poor and very poor were evaluated. Given the discussion above earthquake fault lines that crosses the city from two sides, Strength and high-level security measures should also be implemented in the arteries of infrastructure and structural elements. On the other hand, in the historic old city neighborhoods in the city should strengthen endogenous development based on standard building regulations 2800 and the geographical structure of the region be made available.

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Risk is an inevitable part of life, every day people are somehow at risk. Different risks in various forms and perspectives have different functions. Kurdistan province, with various heights and relatively good rainfall, It results the country's cold spots. Since most of seasonal rainfall occurs in winter, Snow cover is often the domain and passes it hillsides. One of the concerns of people in the mountainous area is a snow avalanche phenomenon. Sudden loss of massive snow is avalanche snow that may include rocks, soil, plants or ice. It seems that the name of the snow avalanche adopted from the eleventh month of the solar year. The possibility of snow in mountainous areas during this month of year is more than other months. Snow avalanches every year around the world, especially in alpine impose huge human and financial losses. Statistics and local evidence also show that the province of Kurdistan expect or accept to soil erosion and destruction of infrastructure and natural resources had a casualty. Actually, this is the most vital reason why zoning area danger avalanche was conducted in this study.

 First, avalanche pathways was recognised and selected as a field visit by department of urban development The purpose of the visit was to extract the geography’s coordinates of the avalanche. The Background of the study shows some of the land criteria are more important than others. For this purpose we performed a literature survey to explore indicators that had a significant impact on avalanche snow like such as; slope, aspect, elevation, convexity and concavity, distance to roads and land. To facilitate greater accuracy, all criteria were used in geographic information system (GIS) for mapping. Thereafter, produced map can be categorised into four classes of low, moderate, high and very high. In the next step. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Analytic Network Process (ANP) model were used for weighting and ranking all criteria (slope, aspect, elevation, convexity and concavity, distance to roads and land use) by using pairwise comparisons with judgments that represent the dominance of one element over another with respect to a property that they share. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a method for decision making which includes qualitative factors. In this method, ratio scales are obtained from ordinal scales which are derived from individual judgments for qualitative factors using the pairwise comparison matrix. The Analytic Network Process (ANP) is a more general form and extension of Analytical Hierarchy Process also uses a pairwise comparison matrix to obtain ratio scales. The difference between these two methods appears in modelling the problem and computing the final priorities for the criteria from ratio scales previously obtained. The ANP feedback approach replaces hierarchies with networks, and emphasizes interdependent relationships among all decision criteria were used in this study).

 Based on the resultant Maps, AHP and ANP had a good overlap with visited points and with high accuracy lay in areas of high risk and very high risk. According to the map provided by Analytic Hierarchy Process from the total number of 30 hillsides, thirteen of them lay in very high risk and seventeen of them in the area of high risk. Thereafter, resultant maps of Analytic network Process shows from the total number of 30 hillsides twelve of them lay in very high risk area and eighteen of them in the high risk area.

The results of (AHP) indicates that from the total area of Kurdistan province, about 1049.7 square kilometres is classified in the low risk area, 11.392 square kilometres in moderate, 14.341 in the high risk area and 2009.1 square kilometres in very high risk area, respectively . In view of the process of the network as map about 978 square kilometres is in low risk area, 10245 square kilometres in moderate risk area, 15410 square kilometres in the high danger area and 2158 square kilometres is located in very high danger area. Therefore, we can use ground data for snow avalanche zoning areas along with Analytic Hierarchy Process and Analytic Network in zoning areas avalanche risk which is applicable. Weather parameters like snow, wind and temperature have an important role in terms of snow avalanche. Decreasing rainfall from west to east of study area. The number of freezing and snowing days indicates the critical situation for snow avalanche in the highlands and the pathways. More prevailing wind direction in the cities are in the Southern west, Southern and in area with high elevation blowing from western direction. Looking at the range of high and very high can be seen, mostly in the North and South and North East which show the impact of prevailing wind upon snow and putting snow in hillsides that can produce snow avalanches

. The hillsides show most of avalanche dangers are at west, northwest and south of Kurdistan thus they are compatible with rainy areas. To build any recreation centred including, winter sports, road construction and expansion, snow avalanche risk areas should be considered. Now pathways don’t have any risk signs warning about avalanches. The warning signs of avalanche at the pathways are essential.In the hierarchical model 198 villages lay at low-risk areas and 20 villages in the area were extremely dangerous. Also in the network model 184 villages in low-risk areas and 23 villages in the area were very dangerous.

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Disaster risk which is the potential loss expressed in lives, health status, livelihoods, assets and services, can occur in a particular community or a society due to the impact of a natural hazard. Disaster Risk Reduction is a systematic approach to identify, assess and reduce that risk. Or (in identifying, assessing, and reducing …) To be specific, the purpose of this or (the current) approach is to minimize vulnerabilities and disaster risks throughout an education factors (throughout an educational factor Or throughout educational factors) to avoid or limit the adverse impacts of natural hazards.

Knowledge and education are recognized as the key components of disaster risk management. Occurrence of enormous disaster in the world shows ( or pinpoints) the need to use  (or for using , in order to prevent repetition of the same structure) knowledge, innovation and education to build a culture of safety and resilience at all levels. The role of education for disaster risk reduction strategies can thus be presented based on three types of activities, including Save lives and prevent injuries should a hazardous event occur; Prevent interruptions to the provision of education, or ensure its swift resumption in the event of an interruption, and finally Develop a resilient population which is able to reduce the economic, social and cultural impacts should a hazardous event occur. Education for Disaster Risk Reduction promotes critical thinking and problem-solving as well as social and emotional life skills which are essential to the empowerment of groups threatened or affected by disasters.

Iran is crossed by several major faults, 90% of whom are seismically active and subject to many earthquakes each year. Qazvin Province, which is located among active zones, suffers less earthquakes, but these may be more powerful because stresses have longer to build. Occurring earthquakes often affected rural settlement and societies. The main aim of the article is to respond how is the role of education in risk management and decreasing vulnerability level of rural areas based on earthquake in Qazvin province? The purposes of this article are to outline the existing seismic risk in Qazvin and to identify the crucial role of education in advancing culture of safety and the resilience of Qazvin rural communities to destructive earthquakes.

From objective points of view, this paper is practical kind of research and from analytic points of view; it would be categorized as the qualitative and quantitative research. The information contained in this article is based on a variety of sources and have been collected by means of both documentary and questionnaire techniques.

This research has adopted or adopts the qualitative and quantitative methods to respond to  (or to answer a basic question) a basic question. To formulate the strategies of earthquake risk reduction 29 villages were selected by cluster sampling and then it was estimated the samples by Cochrane method. For data collection, 386 households were selected by random method.

According to the research topic, the main criteria divided into two groups: formal and informal education. The formal education includes indicators as the number of showed films, corrugated education about earthquake and the informal education encompasses indices as  the effect of media or institutions raising awareness for earthquake, the effect of the earthquake, affected rural and peoples and finally experiences  concerning  the earthquake training.

Based on the results of the current research, the level of education plays an important role in enhancing the effects of hazards and ensuing vulnerability of rural areas after the occurrence of natural hazards (earthquakes).

The result of this research also shows that the rural or regions of Qazvin province are the more vulnerable and the range of knowledge of peoples about earthquake risk is low. It is necessary to consider the earthquake risk management to (or so as to) decrease the earthquake risk among the studied regions/areas in all earthquake phases. In order to reduce the vulnerability of rural settlements in Qazvin County, it is necessary to increase awareness and knowledge.

Regarding/ considering the results of this research and the role of education in risk reduction to  reduce the vulnerability of rural spaces, some strategies such as strengthening disaster risk management awareness, increasing knowledge among rural residents, improving communication skills regarding/concerning disaster risk management  have been proposed.

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Climate change is one of the crucial factors, which threaten many sector such as agriculture, water resource for decades, and the sector is more sensitive to climatic conditions.  Communities are the most vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change and variability because of their low adaptive capacity. One of the challenges of climate change and human spatial dimensions of climate change in international borders where climate change, and creates special challenges. Populated places in the East where rapid urbanization, industrialization and agricultural intensification result in vulnerability to climate change, water shortages as the main concern arises.

 Adaptation to climate change is the adjustment of a natural or human system to moderate the impacts of climate change, to take advantage of new opportunities or to cope with the consequences. Trying to identify the attitudes of people and their mental models of climate change can provide application to manage the post-change. Culture and engineering modeling approaches minds of scientists for climate risk management and climate change consequences have adopted. The review focused on farmers’ perceptions on changes in temperature, precipitation (rainfall), adaptation measures taken by farmers, barriers inhibiting these adaptation measures and the socioeconomic determinants of adaptations to climate change in Sistan plain.

The aim of this study is to provide mental system model, and understanding of climate change is to adapt these areas. To carry out this study to develop a theoretical framework for the model to adapt to climate change was discussed in Helmand. The field study was to assess the views of people on climate change action. The review found out that most farmers in this region are aware that the continent is getting warmer, and precipitation or rainfall patterns have changed. People with new changes and features adaptive approach to the challenges ahead were investigated. This data is based on knowledge (awareness) of water and climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies and be ready. So how compliance action is preventive in nature and to reduce the repercussions of climate change and the potential benefits of a region in the face of these side effects are formed. Most respondents aged over twenty years are at least a decade to climate change are felt to be most frequent subjects 30 to 40 years old. The data collected were processed using statistical techniques and modeling for ranking and evaluation of adaptation strategies were created and ASI index. The results for the insights, policy makers and service providers for local development is important, and can be targeted measures used and the promotion and adoption of coping mechanisms with the potential to build resilience and adapt to climate change and the resulting effects environmental prepare.

The results showed that most people in the region following the election of climate change is adaptive behavior. In total, there are 15 strategies in the region. The ASI index rating of strategies to change the pattern of cultivation, selection of resistant strains, reducing the amount of land-cultivated variety is the pattern of adaptation to environmental changes. Ensuring awareness of and adaptation to climate variability call was conducted with the cooperation of the people. Therefore, variability of climate and natural features of the area was measured by various options. The results show that already sampled respondents in the community are aware of climate change. 60% of respondents strongly observed signs of climate change and the dry season and low rainfall and warmer temperatures to believe. The main adjustment options adopted by farmers to temperature in the region include change of product types and number of ships that 61.6 percent of the farmers that their efforts. Another priority is that 39 percent of them tend to change sowing dates and planting varieties resistant to drought. The main recommendations for adapting to new circumstances in this region to stimulate the economy and livelihood of local people can be to diversify crop production (food for example, and cash crops, annual and permanent crops greenhouse) and the use of foreign income from farm sources (ecotourism, rural tourism) can be cited.

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The most important role that the managed areas will play to attain sustainable development goals would be protecting ecosystem and genetic diversity to achieve the scientific, aesthetics, social and economic potential benefits in future. Proper management of protected areas requires a full understanding of the present conditions, detailed and exact implementation, planning, regular monitoring and risks changes detection in protected areas to understand how are they, how they would effect on nature, recovery and rehabilitation processes and to protect them in long term is very important. Karkhe National Park and protected area is one of the most valuable and most strategic areas in the country that can be protected. This study aimed to identify and analyze threatening risks in Karkhe protected area and national park. The Study area is located with an area of ​​15828 hectares (sum of national park and protected area) on both side of Karkhe river in Khuzestan province. In this research based on field visits and using the Delphi technique, that there were 15 experts and specialist joint it, 28 risks in two terms of the natural and anthropogenic environment (physicochemical, biological, economical, social and cultural) are identified. Then to order the identified risks, The TOPSIS method was used according to the three fectors, severity, probability and sensitivity of the host environment. The results showed that the risk of lack of conservative officer by closeness coefficient (CC) 1 is the highest risk in the area and The risk of soil pollution with heavy metals by closeness coefficient 0.149 is the lowest priority. The most obtain risks has been socio-economic risks. After ordering the environmental risks was found that existing risks in the region has been in a considerable level. Finally, strategies to control risk in the region was presented. As a result, management solutions should be provided to reduce, control, or eliminate the most important risks. In the meantime, strengthening the existing environmental laws and the necessary guarantees for their implementation seems necessary.

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Farmers frequently cope with risks due to the uncertainty of climatic conditions. Population growth, changes in agricultural policies, environmental regulations and the degradation of natural resources such as soil and water also present farmers with numerous challenges. Although farmers have experience in coping with a certain degree of uncertainty, increased climate variability and changes may cause severe problems. Drought in particular is a climatic disaster that creates substantial costs for farmers and affects their agricultural systems extensively. Drought is the most complex of all natural hazards, making the arid and semi-arid regions of the world vulnerable. Although drought has not been well documented, the resource-dependent sectors such as agriculture are the most vulnerable to the impact of this phenomenon. A review of the long-term annual precipitation trends indicated that drought had a worldwide return frequency of every 20e30 years. However, in the last 50 years, some countries such as Iran and Bangladesh have experienced approximately 27 and 19 drought events, respectively. Therefore, for arid and semiarid regions, drought is a recurrent feature that could lead to the loss of crop production, food shortages and starvation) if not managed appropriately. According drought impacts could be managed at macro (national), meso (local) and micro (village and household) levels. However, the micro-level management (i.e., what the farmers do in response to drought) is of great importance. A review of the studies of farmers’ decision-making in response to climate variability revealed that most research has focused on the decision event and not on the entire process argued that the wrong assumption of farmers’ homogeneity neglected different aspects of decision-making in response to drought. Also indicated that farmers made different decisions when utilizing the same data. Additionally, many studies have focused on single strategies that were used to mitigate drought. However, there is a lack of knowledge about the combination and sequence of coping strategies that are used to mitigate drought. Concentrating on the decision-making process could help policy makers assess the needs and prioritize interventions, as well as enable farmers to efficiently manage drought. Farmers utilize various strategies to reduce the impacts of drought. Some strategies have a limited impact on drought mitigation. Some practices also increase farmers’ woes during drought. In addition, when resources (natural, physical and financial) are scarce, the need for an accurate appraisal of coping strategies becomes acute. Therefore, outcome prediction (i.e., the efficacy of mixed coping strategies) is a critical issue in drought management. Consequently, this study is concerned with the description of the farmers’ decision-making process and decision outcomes. First, the impacts of drought on the agricultural production in arid or semi-arid countries, specifically Iran, are described. Then, the farmers’ decision-making process during drought is explained then, the farmers’ decision-making process during drought is explained. The focus then shifts to the design and explanation of the proposed research methodology, followed by an analysis of the results and concluding remarks. Approximately $84 million. Under such conditions, Iran imported significant amounts of wheat and rice, and it seemed likely that continuous drought would lead to import expansion. Furthermore, dairy production also experienced a decrease of 8.2 percent during this same period. The drought of 2008e2012 was one of the worst on record. This drought drastically reduced the cultivation area, even in irrigated lands. During this time, the river waters fell to critical levels. Most of the traditional ground water irrigation systems (qanats) either completely dried up or experienced a reduced water release. In the central and southern regions of Iran, the cultivation areas were reduced by half during the spring-summer seasons due to these low water levels. During this period, farmers experienced rising costs due to the use of management strategies such as deepening wells and constructing water storage in order to cope with the drought. Other economic impacts that were experienced by the farmers were increased livestock feeding expenses, increased interest rates, and increased debts. These depleted resources and diminished incomes forced those in rural areas to migrate to the cities in pursuit of jobs. Important factors, as previously mentioned, are livelihood risks that so far have not been given much attention so this research was to Patterns Design Out of the Challenges of Livelihood Sustainability of Small-Scale Farmers in Drought Conditions in Kurdistan Province.
The statistical population consisted of small farmers in Kurdistan province who were in drought conditions. The research paradigm is qualitative in two ways: Grounded theory and phenomenology.  Using theoretical sampling, 29 of them were selected for study. The research data were collected using a deep interview and group discussion and analyzed with three open, axial and selective coding methods.
The results of the research in the phenomenology of Livelihood Behavior Behaviors included 16 primary codes and classified into adaptive behaviors, resiliency and non-response. Also, the results of studying the livelihood sustainability challenges of small scale farmers in the form of foundation data methodology included 61 initial codes. Finally, in order to design a model out of the challenges of the stabilization of 9 mechanisms (economic, productivity, production factors, services and facilities, Education and information, management and capacity building, culture, technology, formations, and equilibrium) were designed based on the challenges of sustainability and incorporated into the Strauss model. 
 
Keyword: Sustainability, Sustainable Livelihoods, Climate Risks, Small Scale -Farming
 
 
 

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Introduction: Wetland ecosystems, especially marine coastal wetlands of the most important and also the most vulnerable are the world's environmental resources. Which has always been sensitive to the fragility of coastal areas, high population density and intensive human activities are faced with the threat of destruction. Based on this, monitoring the trend of the changes in wetlands and their surrounding lands can be effective in the management of these valuable ecosystems. Investigating the environmental risk is a suitable instrument for evaluating and ensuring understanding of the relationships between stressor factors and environmental effects especially in wetland ecosystems. In general, application of methods of evaluating environmental risk is one of the important tools in studying environmental management along with identifying and mitigating potential environmental damaging factors in wetland regions in order to achieve sustainable development. Today, multi-criteria decision-making methods are employed in evaluating the risk in many studies.This study is based on multi-criteria decision-making methods to identify and analyze the risks threatening Tyab- Minab International wetland located in Hormozgan province was conducted.
Materials and methods: Based on the methodology to identify and prioritize risks Delphi, AHP and TOPSIS techniques were used to determine the risk priority number. In the first phase of this study, to identify and screen the main criteria of project selection, Delphi method was used. In this study, the panel of interest was determined based on a combination of experts with different expertise and out of a sample of 20 individuals, in which experts with various expertise gave a score from 1 to 5 (Likert scale) to each criterion. In this way, 32 criteria were identified as the most important and considerable risk for Minab Wetland and further proceeded to the second phase for prioritization and analysis. In this stage, multi-criteria decision-making methods were used, in which hierarchical analysis process was employed for prioritizing the criteria using Expert Choice 11 software. The indices of risk evaluation including the impact intensity, incidence probability, and the sensitivity of the receptive environment in environmental risk evaluation of wetlands do not have an equal value and significance. For this purpose, to weight the factors effective in estimating risk level and for prioritization of risk options, the technique for order of preference by similarly to ideal solution (TOPSIS) and Excel software were benefited from for calculations. The spectrum of scoring to each of the indices of incidence probability, impact intensity, and the sensitivity of the receiving environment was chosen from very low (1) to very high (9) based on hour spectrum. Following investigation of the types and frequency of indices along with the method of score determination of these indices, three indices of risk intensity (C1), risk incidence probability (C2), and the sensitivity of the receiving environment (C3) were chosen for risk ranking using TOPSIS model. Next, after determination of risk priority number using TOPSIS, the risk levels were calculated and evaluated using normal distribution method for each risk. To determine the degree of risk-taking, risks are organized in a descending order, where the elements of the number of the class and the length of the class are determined based on Relations 1 and 2 (n is the number of risks). Next, the risks are categorized based on these classes. Considering the concept of ALARP, the risks under investigation are divided into high risks, medium risks, and low risks. In this study, considering the number and length of classes, the studied risks were categorized in six levels (critical, intolerable, considerable, medium, tolerable, and trivial risks).
 

(2)

(1)

the number of classes=1+3.3 log (n)
the length of the classes= the greatest risk value - the smallest risk value/the number of classes
Results and discussion: In the first step, the final indices of the wetland's environmental risk were identified and the development of hierarchical tree and classification of the risks threatening wetlands along with their incidence probability in two groups of natural and environmental criteria was performed. Eventually, the final weight of criteria resulting from paired comparisons was obtained in Expert Choice 11 to achieve the score of incidence probability of each risk. Based on the results, among the natural, social, economic, physiochemical, biological, and cultural criteria, drought and climate change, increase urban and rural development, Smugling of fuel, oil pollution, reduce the density of vegetation, indiscriminate exploitation of groundwater were of high priority. The results obtained from ranking the the risks threatening Minab Wetland using TOPSIS suggest that oil pollution, dam construction upstream, persistent drought and climate change, and sometimes alcohol and fuel smuggling and illegal overfishing the priorities are first to fifth. Also Results showed that the respectively based on (Cj+) oil pollution (0/9109), dam construction (0/8121), the drought and climate changes (0/8063) and the smuggling of fuel (0/7520) are in Unbearable level.
Overall, the results indicated that same as this research, wetland ecosystems are subject to many threatening factors, resulting in ecological imbalance and abnormal appearance of the wetland, putting the wetland entity into danger of extinction in terms of fauna and flora.
Conclusion: Nowadays, for assessment of environmental risk, various methods are used, each of which has positive and negative points given the studied environment and the conditions governing it. Therefore, one cannot reject or approve one method with total confidence. By employing novel methods in risk evaluation, the intensity of risk incidences and, in turn, the damages and losses incurred to the environment can be prevented or at least mitigated. Further, it is also possible to move in line with proper and optimal management of environmental resources, especially wetlands and with sustainable development. Undoubtedly, understanding and recognition of the factors threatening wetlands, according to the importance and the impact of them, Prevent and cope with the threats and accurate project preparation and implementation of wetland conservation plans and environmental management.

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Changes in the mean and the extreme values of hydroclimatic variables are two
prominent features of the future climate. Therefore, simulating the climatic
behavior of Shandiz catchment area, an important tourist area in the northeast of
the country, will play an important role in identifying the climate condition and
potential vulnerability of these areas in the coming decades of climate change.
In this study, we will
evaluate the effects of climate change on extreme values of the basin micro scaling
precipitation and temperature in CanESM2 model using SDSM model and
simulating runoff with SWAT model in future decades.
To achieve this goal, the daily temperature and precipitation statistics of the 30
statistical years (1961-1990) of Mashhad synoptic station have been
used. The data of the CanESM2 general circulation model under RCP2.6, RCP4.5
and RCP8.5 scenarios are also used to predict precipitation, the minimum and
maximum temperature for 2041 to 2100.
According to the results, the annual precipitation rises 37 to 54 percent from 2041
to2070 compared to the observation period, and the increase in rainfall of the
2071-2100 rises 52 to 66 percent. Precipitation extreme values, the mean of
maximum and minimum temperatures in future periods in all seasons of Mashhad
station will increase compared to the observation period (1961-1990).In future decades, the average maximum temperature in Mashhad will increase from 4.6 to 0.65 degrees Celsius
and the average minimum temperature will increase 53/1 to 22/4.
By introducing micro scaled time series of the maximum temperature, temperature,
and micro scaled precipitation by SDSM model to SWAT model, the monthly time
series of Shandiz watershed runoff at Sarasiab Station was simulated for the two
periods of 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 under three distribution scenarios of RCP2.6,
RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. For this purpose, first, the model was calibrated and validated
using Shandiz hydrometric station runoff for 2003-2012, and the values of R2 were
65 and 52, respectively. Subsequently, with the introduction of micro scaled time
series of maximum and minimum temperatures, and micro scaled precipitation by
SDSM model to SWAT model, the average annual trend shows that runoff
increases in the coming decades. The lowest average annual increase for runoff is
in 2041-2070 and RCP4.5 scenario, with an increase of 56.1% over the observation
period. The highest increase of average annual monthly runoff is from 2071 to2100
under RCP 2.6 scenario with 53% to 104% runoff compared to the observation period.


 

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Today, the impact of climate is considered on the life, health, comfort, activity and behavior in a form of the branch of science   such as human biology. Due to difference of frequency people with each other, the sensibility of every one from weather can be different from the other one that's why the climate can’t be totally undesirable or the climate can be totally desirable for all the people, so we can say that all of climatic elements are affected on human comfort but the effect of some of them is quite cleared and the effect of the others is mild and sometimes invisible. The greatest effect on comfort and discomfort can be included temperature, humidity and solar radiation. The aim of this research is to investigate and determine    the area risk of climatic comfort. For this purpose, the temperature, precipitation and humidity data have been extracted for Khuzestan province form Esfarazi database. In this approach, first different properties of the temperature, precipitation and humidity for the area with climatic discomfort   have discussed   based on the conditional probability distribution. This study has been identified the areas of climatic comfort in Khuestan province using multivariate analysis (Cluster analysis and Discriminant analysis) and spatial autocorrelation pattern (Hot Spot index and Moran index) with an emphasis on architecture. The results showed that the risk area of climate comfort is included mostly  of  the western parts of  Khuzestan province namely the border areas with Iraq and some parts of  southern  of  province .On the other hand ,trend analysis the  range of this area to climatic discomfort indicated that it has increased significantly  in  recent periods .The results also  showed that  the local distribution of   precipitation  in all periods in the areas of climatic discomfort  has  been   a high  the coefficient of  variations.

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Zoning and Spatial Analysis of Potential Environmental Hazards
Case study: Silvana District
Abstract
Natural hazards can be considered as one of the most important threats to humankind and nature that can occur anywhere in the world. Natural hazards are one of the main obstacles to sustainable development in different countries and one of the important indicators of the development of world countries is their readiness to deal with natural hazards. Therefore, it is important to pay attention to it and appropriate measures should be taken to reduce the vulnerability of human settlements. Nowadays with increasing population growth, population dynamics and the large number of people exposed to various types of disasters, the need to identify environmental potential hazards and identification of hazardous areas are felt more and more. Meantime, some people may not be aware of potential hazards of their place of residence. So by identifying and evaluating potential hazards and their Risks before the occurrence, we can significantly reduce the severity of the damages and contribute to sustainable regional development. The negative effects of natural disasters can be minimized by the availability of comprehensive and useful information from different areas and Multihazard mapping is one of the most effective tools in this regard.
According to the above mentioned, in this study, the spatial analysis of potential hazards in Silvana district in Urmia County has been studied. This study area due to specific geographic conditions such as position, complexity of topographic and ecological structures, in general, the existence of environmental factors for hazards has been selected as the study area. There have been a number of hazards in the past and assessing of this area is necessary, because of the lack of previous studies. For this purpose, by reviewing various reports and doing field observations, three hazards including Flood, Landslide, and Earthquake are identified as potential hazards of the study area.
For assessing hazards, 12 factors in 6 clusters such as Slope, Aspect (Topographic factors), Lithology, Soil type, Distance to Faults (Geological factors) Precipitation (Climatological factors), River Network Density, Groundwater Resources (Hydrological factors), Land use, Distance to Roads (Human factors), Observed Landslide Density and Seismicity (Historical factors) as the research factors has been selected. For weighting factors, Analytic Network Process (ANP) Method in Super Decisions 2.6.0 software environment has been used. The results of the analysis show that Slope (0.201), Precipitation (0.161), Lithology (0.112), Distance to Faults (0.106), Land use (0.096), Rivers (0.078), Seismicity (0.06), Soil Type (0.055), Landslide Density (0.047), Aspect (0.033), Groundwater (0.03) and Distance to Roads (0.016), Respectively have maximum to minimum relative weight. Then, weighted maps are standardized with using FUZZY functions. For this purpose, Fuzzy membership functions such as Linear, Large and Small has been selected based on each factor. For some factors such as Slope, Aspect, Lithology, Soil type, Rivers density, Land use, Seismicity and Landslide density, Fuzzy linear function has been used. For some others such as Groundwater and Precipitation, Fuzzy large function has been used and for distance to Faults and distance to Roads, Fuzzy small function has been used. Finally, weighted maps were overlay in ArcGIS 10.4.1 environment with Fuzzy Gamma 0.9 operator and potential hazards zoning maps is obtained.
Final results indicate that major parts in the Northwest, West and South of the study area located in high risk zones and 59 percent of the total area exposed to high risk. Based on hazard zoning maps, 44 percent of the area exposed to Flooding, 48 percent exposed to Landslide and 44 percent exposed to Earthquake. Also, 61 percent of the population or 37394 people exposed to one hazard, 7 percent or 3817 people exposed to two hazard and 8 percent or 4914 people exposed to three hazard. According to surveys, only 21 percent of the study area is considered as a low risk area but that does not mean that environmental hazards will never happen in these areas. In general, and based on results, it is concluded that Silvana district has a high potential for environmental hazards. Final results of the research show that potential hazards identifying and preparation of hazard zoning maps can be very useful in reducing damages and achieving sustainable regional development. Therefore, considering the ability of hazard zoning maps to identify areas exposed to risk and assess the type of potential hazards, These analyzes should be considered as one of the most appropriate and useful tools in different stages of crisis management that can be the solution to many problems in preventing and responding to natural disasters and therefore, it is recommended that they be used in the crisis management process.
Keywords: Spatial Analysis, Environmental Hazards, Silvana, ANP Method, Risk
 

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The zoning of flood risk potential in the Ghotorchay watershed with ANP and WLC multi-criteria decision making methods
 
 
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Flood is one of the most complex and natural destructive phenomena that have many damage every year. The northwestern region of the country, due to its semi-arid and mountainous climate and thus of high rainfall variability, is one of the areas exposed to destructive floods. Flood risk zoning is an essential tool for flood risk management. Therefore, the purpose of this research was to determine the flood risk zones in the Ghotorchay watershed by using the analytical network process (ANP).
 
Methodology
In this research,, with geographic information system (GIS), satellite images, synoptic station data, analytical network process and the combination of layers, the flood potential of has been modeled in the Ghotorchay watershed. The final map of flood risk based on a combination of factors and climatic and physical elements including land use, geology, vegetation, topography, slope and land capability was prepared. The weight of each criterion was determined by ANP method and used by weighted linear composition (WLC) method for spatial modeling and incorporation of layers.
 
Results
The results of flood risk zoning showed that the Qal layers from geology, slopes of less than 3 precent, land capacity of units 5, 6 and 7, and as well as poor vegetation cover were identified as flood zones. The results obtained from the analytical network process model indicate the fact that part of the watershed is affected by the risk of flooding with the very high potential, which is mainly located in the downstream of watershed. For this reason, the streams of rank 3 and 4 are considered as flood zones and flood guide areas to the downstream areas. Also, river networks of 5 and higher ranks are in the range of floodplains or river coastal and usually have surface and extensive floods.
 
Conclusion
The flood prone areas and providing effective solutions for flood management is one of the main steps in reducing flood damage. Therefore more precise management and control of basins with multiple dams, embedding flood alert systems in flood plain areas and performing basic measures is one of the most urgent measures to prevent, improve and control this natural disaster.
Key words: Analytical network process, Biological protection, Floodplain, Flood risk assessment, Ghotorchay