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Ali Bayat, Mohammad Saligheh, Mehri Akbari,
Volume 4, Issue 2 (7-2017)
Volume 4, Issue 2 (7-2017)
Abstract
Cyclones as the most important factor in the turbulence of mid-latitude regions are low pressure centers that have one or more closed Isobaric curves. Mid-latitude cyclones are responsible for transfer of the heat and moisture between the tropics and the polar regions. Mediterranean cyclones have the most important role in Iran's rainfalls and get from different tracks to the country and affect Northwest, West and South West of Iran in the cold period of the year. Cyclones are the prevailing weather phenomenon in Mid-latitude region and studying the characteristics and effects of these phenomena has always been of interest to climatologists and meteorologists. Iran which is located in mid-latitude region, actually is located in the path of one of the world's largest cyclone formation and the Mediterranean Sea has a main impact on the rainfall occurrence in Iran. Regarding the importance of cyclones in rainfall occurrence in Iran, especially in cold season, studying this atmospheric event seems very necessary.
The aim of this study, is to identify, tracking and analysis of the winter season (December, January and February or DJF) rain producing cyclones using special database and algorithm during three recently decades (1979-2009).
In this study, in order to specify, tracking and statistical analysis of the DJF rain producing cyclones, relative Vorticity of 700 hPa were received from ECMWF data center with
spatial resolution and temporal resolutions of 6-hourly for a 30 years period (1979-2009). The study domain includes Mediterranean and Middle East, from 
E to 
E and 
N to 
N.
Cyclone identification will follow the approach presented in Blender et al. (1997) and Flaounas et al. (2014), including two important points and conditions: 1- A cyclone is considered to be a relative Vorticity extrema, thus the aim will be to look for the maximum value of relative Vorticity at the 700 hPa level in a box of
grid points. 2. For the intensity of the cyclone, the threshold of relative Vorticity, is considered equal or greater than 
. Then by 6-hour tracking the maximum amount points of Vorticity and connecting them to each other, identification and routing of cyclone is implemented. The track 
can be written as 
, where 
describes the cyclone position in sequential time steps t = 0, … , T, which are given at 00, 06, 12 and 18 GMT. The initial position is considered the first detected maximum of relative Vorticity. During the cyclone detection and tracking method, different threshold values are commonly applied to eliminate, for instance, the weakest centers and short living systems. For this reason, the threshold of equal or greater than 8 time steps (3 days and more) is considered based on Alijani (1366) to eliminate short living cyclones.
In this study, climatology of cyclones such as genesis and lysis centers, tracks and frequencies in the Mediterranean Basin and Middle East were analyzed. The results showed that, center and eastern part of the Mediterranean region include Aegean Sea, Cyprus, and northern borders of Mediterranean Sea, Adriatic Sea and also Red Sea, Sudan and Iraq, are most important cyclogenesis centers in winter season.
These cyclones which form in these cyclogenesis centers, move to the east with two eastward and northeastward distinguished directions. In northwest of Iran, the cyclones by passing over West and East Azerbaijan and Ardebil provinces in eastward and northeastward directions, move into western and southern shores of Caspian Sea. In southwest of the country, the cyclones are entered into Iran over Khozestan, Chaharmahal and Kohkilouyeh provinces. Part the cyclones are moved into center and northeast of the country with northeastward direction and other part by crossing over southern shores of the country move to the southeast of the country. In mid-west of the country, the cyclones are arrived into Iran in three different tracks. The most important path is Kordestan's path which the cyclones in the origin of Mediterranean are entered eastward into Iran by crossing over Zanjan and Hamadan provinces, under the Alborz ranges are moved into east and northeast of the country. Two other paths are observed in Ilam and Kermanshah Provinces which in these tracks also the cyclones are approximately moved eastward into center and northeast of the country. The results also showed that eastern part of the Mediterranean region specially Cyprus, Aegean sea, Adriatic sea, Red sea and Sudan and also Iraq are most important wintertime cyclogenesis centers of Iran. The main entrance paths of the cyclones includes northwest, mid- west and southwest. The averages cyclones lifetime are 4.5 days, movement speed is about 20 km/h and also travelling length is about 1700 km. Of the other notable results we can refer to decreasing of the rain producing cyclones during 3 last decades.
The aim of this study, is to identify, tracking and analysis of the winter season (December, January and February or DJF) rain producing cyclones using special database and algorithm during three recently decades (1979-2009).
In this study, in order to specify, tracking and statistical analysis of the DJF rain producing cyclones, relative Vorticity of 700 hPa were received from ECMWF data center with
spatial resolution and temporal resolutions of 6-hourly for a 30 years period (1979-2009). The study domain includes Mediterranean and Middle East, from E to E and N to N.Cyclone identification will follow the approach presented in Blender et al. (1997) and Flaounas et al. (2014), including two important points and conditions: 1- A cyclone is considered to be a relative Vorticity extrema, thus the aim will be to look for the maximum value of relative Vorticity at the 700 hPa level in a box of
grid points. 2. For the intensity of the cyclone, the threshold of relative Vorticity, is considered equal or greater than . Then by 6-hour tracking the maximum amount points of Vorticity and connecting them to each other, identification and routing of cyclone is implemented. The track can be written as , where describes the cyclone position in sequential time steps t = 0, … , T, which are given at 00, 06, 12 and 18 GMT. The initial position is considered the first detected maximum of relative Vorticity. During the cyclone detection and tracking method, different threshold values are commonly applied to eliminate, for instance, the weakest centers and short living systems. For this reason, the threshold of equal or greater than 8 time steps (3 days and more) is considered based on Alijani (1366) to eliminate short living cyclones.In this study, climatology of cyclones such as genesis and lysis centers, tracks and frequencies in the Mediterranean Basin and Middle East were analyzed. The results showed that, center and eastern part of the Mediterranean region include Aegean Sea, Cyprus, and northern borders of Mediterranean Sea, Adriatic Sea and also Red Sea, Sudan and Iraq, are most important cyclogenesis centers in winter season.
These cyclones which form in these cyclogenesis centers, move to the east with two eastward and northeastward distinguished directions. In northwest of Iran, the cyclones by passing over West and East Azerbaijan and Ardebil provinces in eastward and northeastward directions, move into western and southern shores of Caspian Sea. In southwest of the country, the cyclones are entered into Iran over Khozestan, Chaharmahal and Kohkilouyeh provinces. Part the cyclones are moved into center and northeast of the country with northeastward direction and other part by crossing over southern shores of the country move to the southeast of the country. In mid-west of the country, the cyclones are arrived into Iran in three different tracks. The most important path is Kordestan's path which the cyclones in the origin of Mediterranean are entered eastward into Iran by crossing over Zanjan and Hamadan provinces, under the Alborz ranges are moved into east and northeast of the country. Two other paths are observed in Ilam and Kermanshah Provinces which in these tracks also the cyclones are approximately moved eastward into center and northeast of the country. The results also showed that eastern part of the Mediterranean region specially Cyprus, Aegean sea, Adriatic sea, Red sea and Sudan and also Iraq are most important wintertime cyclogenesis centers of Iran. The main entrance paths of the cyclones includes northwest, mid- west and southwest. The averages cyclones lifetime are 4.5 days, movement speed is about 20 km/h and also travelling length is about 1700 km. Of the other notable results we can refer to decreasing of the rain producing cyclones during 3 last decades.
Zeinabe Sharifi, Mehdi Nooripour, Maryam Sharifzadeh,
Volume 4, Issue 2 (7-2017)
Volume 4, Issue 2 (7-2017)
Abstract
Sustainable livelihoods approach as one of the new sustainable rural development approaches is one way of thinking and attempting to achieve development which arose in the late 1980s with the aim of progress and poverty alleviation in rural communities (Sojasi Ghidari et al.,2016).
Five critical concepts to understand sustainable livelihoods framework include the concept of vulnerability, livelihood assets, transforming structures and processes, livelihood strategies and livelihood outcomes (Motiee Langroodi et al,2012). According to the sustainable livelihoods framework, vulnerability is one of the fundamental concepts based on the vulnerability context (Forouzani et al.,2017). The vulnerability context forms the people's external environment. It comprises shocks (such as human, livestock or crop health shocks; natural hazards, like floods or earthquakes; economic shocks; conflicts in form of national or international wars) trends (such as demographic trends; resource trends; trends in governance), and seasonality (such as seasonality of prices, products or employment opportunities) and represents the part of the framework that is outside stakeholder’s control (Kollmair and Gamper, .(2002
Various research explored the factors influencing vulnerability and its dimensions and less research investigated to assess the vulnerability of rural households. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate rural households' vulnerability in the Central District of Dena County. Accordingly, this research is to answer the following questions:
Five critical concepts to understand sustainable livelihoods framework include the concept of vulnerability, livelihood assets, transforming structures and processes, livelihood strategies and livelihood outcomes (Motiee Langroodi et al,2012). According to the sustainable livelihoods framework, vulnerability is one of the fundamental concepts based on the vulnerability context (Forouzani et al.,2017). The vulnerability context forms the people's external environment. It comprises shocks (such as human, livestock or crop health shocks; natural hazards, like floods or earthquakes; economic shocks; conflicts in form of national or international wars) trends (such as demographic trends; resource trends; trends in governance), and seasonality (such as seasonality of prices, products or employment opportunities) and represents the part of the framework that is outside stakeholder’s control (Kollmair and Gamper, .(2002
Various research explored the factors influencing vulnerability and its dimensions and less research investigated to assess the vulnerability of rural households. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate rural households' vulnerability in the Central District of Dena County. Accordingly, this research is to answer the following questions:
- What is the status of rural households' vulnerability to shocks?
- What is the status of rural households' vulnerability to trends?
- What is the status of rural households' vulnerability to seasonality?
The research method is applied in terms of purpose and non-experimental survey in terms of data collection. The statistical population of the study consisted of 2500 rural households in the Central District of Dena County, which according to Krejcie and Morgan table 300 households were selected using cluster random sampling.
The research tool for data collection was a structured and research-made questionnaire. Face validity was used in order to determine the validity of the questionnaire and the face validity of the research tool was confirmed by a panel of experts. A pre-test study was carried out in order to determine the reliability of the various sections of the questionnaire, Cronbach's alpha was calculated and reliability of the questionnaire was confirmed.
Vulnerability was measured using 20 questions and in three sections including shocks (8 items), trends (6 items) and seasonality (6 items) with a three-point Likert scale (low, medium and high) and SPSS software was used to analyze data.
The results of calculated vulnerability showed that the rural households had the most vulnerability to shocks including "causing damage to crops due to frost", "causing damage to crops due to drought" and "plant pests and diseases". In contrast, rural households had the lowest vulnerability to shocks including "family fights and ethnic conflict", "animal disease" and "illness of family members".
The respondents had the most vulnerability to the trends including "the rise in food prices and other life necessities" and "the rise in the price of energy carriers such as diesel, gasoline, etc.". In contrast, the respondents had the least vulnerability in trends including "gradual air pollution" and "increase in households' population".
The respondents had the most vulnerability to the seasonality including "lack of funds and capital in low working seasons" and "fluctuations in the prices of agricultural products". In contrast, the respondents had the least vulnerability to seasonality including "the impossibility of growing crops in different seasons" and "decrease and increase in the amount of agricultural production in different seasons".
The results showed that generally respondents’ vulnerability to shocks, trends and seasonality and the total vulnerability was at a medium level for the majority of the respondents (over 40%), at a high level for about 25 percent of the respondents, at a very high level for about 15 percent of the respondents and at a very low level for only about 10 percent of the respondents. Therefore, it could be concluded that more than half of the respondents' vulnerabilities was at a low and medium level.
Furthermore, in two groups with low and medium vulnerability, the average vulnerability to shocks, trends and seasonality are almost the same, whereas in two groups with high and very high vulnerability, the most vulnerability referred to seasonality, trends and shocks, respectively.
According to the research findings, the following suggestions are offered in order to reduce the vulnerability of rural households.
In order to reduce the vulnerability of rural households to shocks including "causing damage to crops due to frost", "causing damage to crops due to drought" and "plant pests and diseases", it is suggested that educational courses are held by the relevant organizations such as Agriculture Jihad in order to get familiar with ways to deal with damages caused by frost, drought and plant pests and disease. In addition, the use of heating system before the frost, the use of drought resistant varieties, the use of such techniques as land fallowing in order to reduce the need for water, the use of integrated pests management are offered as well in order to reduce the vulnerability of rural households.
Considering that the respondents had the most vulnerability to the trends including "the rise in food prices and other life necessities" and "the rise in the price of energy carriers such as diesel, gasoline, etc.", the rise in food prices as well as energy carriers in rural areas should be cautiously.
Founding loan fund in order to give loan and credit to households in low working seasons as well as determining a guaranteed price for agricultural products by the relevant authorities to reduce the volatility of agricultural prices are recommended.
The research tool for data collection was a structured and research-made questionnaire. Face validity was used in order to determine the validity of the questionnaire and the face validity of the research tool was confirmed by a panel of experts. A pre-test study was carried out in order to determine the reliability of the various sections of the questionnaire, Cronbach's alpha was calculated and reliability of the questionnaire was confirmed.
Vulnerability was measured using 20 questions and in three sections including shocks (8 items), trends (6 items) and seasonality (6 items) with a three-point Likert scale (low, medium and high) and SPSS software was used to analyze data.
The results of calculated vulnerability showed that the rural households had the most vulnerability to shocks including "causing damage to crops due to frost", "causing damage to crops due to drought" and "plant pests and diseases". In contrast, rural households had the lowest vulnerability to shocks including "family fights and ethnic conflict", "animal disease" and "illness of family members".
The respondents had the most vulnerability to the trends including "the rise in food prices and other life necessities" and "the rise in the price of energy carriers such as diesel, gasoline, etc.". In contrast, the respondents had the least vulnerability in trends including "gradual air pollution" and "increase in households' population".
The respondents had the most vulnerability to the seasonality including "lack of funds and capital in low working seasons" and "fluctuations in the prices of agricultural products". In contrast, the respondents had the least vulnerability to seasonality including "the impossibility of growing crops in different seasons" and "decrease and increase in the amount of agricultural production in different seasons".
The results showed that generally respondents’ vulnerability to shocks, trends and seasonality and the total vulnerability was at a medium level for the majority of the respondents (over 40%), at a high level for about 25 percent of the respondents, at a very high level for about 15 percent of the respondents and at a very low level for only about 10 percent of the respondents. Therefore, it could be concluded that more than half of the respondents' vulnerabilities was at a low and medium level.
Furthermore, in two groups with low and medium vulnerability, the average vulnerability to shocks, trends and seasonality are almost the same, whereas in two groups with high and very high vulnerability, the most vulnerability referred to seasonality, trends and shocks, respectively.
According to the research findings, the following suggestions are offered in order to reduce the vulnerability of rural households.
In order to reduce the vulnerability of rural households to shocks including "causing damage to crops due to frost", "causing damage to crops due to drought" and "plant pests and diseases", it is suggested that educational courses are held by the relevant organizations such as Agriculture Jihad in order to get familiar with ways to deal with damages caused by frost, drought and plant pests and disease. In addition, the use of heating system before the frost, the use of drought resistant varieties, the use of such techniques as land fallowing in order to reduce the need for water, the use of integrated pests management are offered as well in order to reduce the vulnerability of rural households.
Considering that the respondents had the most vulnerability to the trends including "the rise in food prices and other life necessities" and "the rise in the price of energy carriers such as diesel, gasoline, etc.", the rise in food prices as well as energy carriers in rural areas should be cautiously.
Founding loan fund in order to give loan and credit to households in low working seasons as well as determining a guaranteed price for agricultural products by the relevant authorities to reduce the volatility of agricultural prices are recommended.
Ali Mohammad Khorshiddoust, Mehdi Asadi, Hassan Hajimohammadi ,
Volume 4, Issue 2 (7-2017)
Volume 4, Issue 2 (7-2017)
Abstract
Thunderstorms are among the first meteorological phenomena, which have attracted human attention. Thunderstorms with rain showers and storms accompanied by hail and their role in causing sudden floods, both in terms of agriculture and human and financial losses, have been noticed by researchers. Rain hail of bullets or pieces of ice ascends very high in elevation due to the weather conditions along with electrical features occurrence. Hail grains or pieces of ice with diameters of 5 to 50 mm occasionally take longer time to be made up. Strong growth of hail through severe and repeated vertical movements of air in cumulonimbus clouds freezes the absorbed water droplets around hailstones. Few thunderstorm hails arrive on land many of which even contain no hail even in the most suitable parts of the clouds. The creation and hail falling, despite being warm and humid in the lower atmosphere and the ascending of clouds condensed with respect to the altitude and cold weather are coupled with the continuing maximum air instability. Because of the importance of hail event, studies on the formation and growth of hail in different countries are conducted for its prediction. In connection with hail and hail storms extensive research work has been carried out in including: Costa et al. (2001), Simonov and Gergiev (2003), Whiteman (2003) and Sterling (2003).
To investigate the thunderstorm and hails occurred in the region, we examined weather conditions. Initially the values of pressure, temperature and dew point temperature by the radiosonde measurements in different layers of the atmosphere were studied and the plotted graphs were obtained from NOAA. In the next stage for a closer look at weather conditions parameters like air temperature (Air), sea level pressure (SLP), geo-potential height (Hgt), specific humidity (Shum), vertical velocity (Omega) orbital wind component (Uwnd) and meridional wind component (Vwnd) were analyzed. The data records were collected from the website of the National Center for Environmental Prediction and National Climate Science (NCEP/NCAR). Instability investigation in the atmosphere for different levels of instability indices was applied.
Investigation on instability indices showed that on the first day the ascending index values (LI) were at 2-, which are the values added in the next two days. These conditions prove that the atmospheric turbulence is intensified in the days after the first day. By examining the thickness of the atmosphere it is seen on the Azerbaijan area On 16 July that on 5785 geo-potential meters the next day was associated with reduced 51 meter geo-potential added value at the third day. The results also revealed that the atmospheric precipitation of water values is calculated on a three-day index value of 17, 18 and more than 23 mm per day. To check the status of stormy weather index (SWEA) and K we found that the occurrence of thunderstorms in that area started on 16 July, approaching the end of high value added indicators that show strengthening of storms and their destructive mechanism in the day after the end of the other.
Investigation of thermodynamic charts showed that rapid convective ascent of available potential energy depending on the weather in the region has been so high and caused the weather to approach three days in advance to the upper layers of the atmosphere and atmospheric turbulence was created for the region. Examining the rainfall map of geo-potential height and vortices in 500 hPa on the first day exhibited that tthunderstorms were the result of interactions of the atmosphere, so that in middle levels the strong condensation of location with a range of more than 25 degrees of latitude on Caspian Sea was created and polar latitudes spread to nearby areas. On the second day, high-altitude thunderstorm in the core atmospheric cut-off formed on the Caspian Sea on the East of Turkey, northern Iraq and North West of Iran created the geo-potential height of the center of the 5750 geopotential meter. On the third day, atmospheric cut-off core to cut area of low pressure was made on the maximum positive vortices in the climate system. Conditions over the surface in the first day of the storm in the region indicated very strong contour of low pressure formed in the North East to West and North West of Saudi Arabia. In front of the two sides one of on Mediterranean Sea and other northern Russia, the contour of the pressure was imported into the Middle East.
To investigate the thunderstorm and hails occurred in the region, we examined weather conditions. Initially the values of pressure, temperature and dew point temperature by the radiosonde measurements in different layers of the atmosphere were studied and the plotted graphs were obtained from NOAA. In the next stage for a closer look at weather conditions parameters like air temperature (Air), sea level pressure (SLP), geo-potential height (Hgt), specific humidity (Shum), vertical velocity (Omega) orbital wind component (Uwnd) and meridional wind component (Vwnd) were analyzed. The data records were collected from the website of the National Center for Environmental Prediction and National Climate Science (NCEP/NCAR). Instability investigation in the atmosphere for different levels of instability indices was applied.
Investigation on instability indices showed that on the first day the ascending index values (LI) were at 2-, which are the values added in the next two days. These conditions prove that the atmospheric turbulence is intensified in the days after the first day. By examining the thickness of the atmosphere it is seen on the Azerbaijan area On 16 July that on 5785 geo-potential meters the next day was associated with reduced 51 meter geo-potential added value at the third day. The results also revealed that the atmospheric precipitation of water values is calculated on a three-day index value of 17, 18 and more than 23 mm per day. To check the status of stormy weather index (SWEA) and K we found that the occurrence of thunderstorms in that area started on 16 July, approaching the end of high value added indicators that show strengthening of storms and their destructive mechanism in the day after the end of the other.
Investigation of thermodynamic charts showed that rapid convective ascent of available potential energy depending on the weather in the region has been so high and caused the weather to approach three days in advance to the upper layers of the atmosphere and atmospheric turbulence was created for the region. Examining the rainfall map of geo-potential height and vortices in 500 hPa on the first day exhibited that tthunderstorms were the result of interactions of the atmosphere, so that in middle levels the strong condensation of location with a range of more than 25 degrees of latitude on Caspian Sea was created and polar latitudes spread to nearby areas. On the second day, high-altitude thunderstorm in the core atmospheric cut-off formed on the Caspian Sea on the East of Turkey, northern Iraq and North West of Iran created the geo-potential height of the center of the 5750 geopotential meter. On the third day, atmospheric cut-off core to cut area of low pressure was made on the maximum positive vortices in the climate system. Conditions over the surface in the first day of the storm in the region indicated very strong contour of low pressure formed in the North East to West and North West of Saudi Arabia. In front of the two sides one of on Mediterranean Sea and other northern Russia, the contour of the pressure was imported into the Middle East.
Elham Ghasemifar, Somayeh Naserpour, Lyli Arezomandi,
Volume 4, Issue 2 (7-2017)
Volume 4, Issue 2 (7-2017)
Abstract
Precipitation is not only a critical process in global hydrologic cycle but also an important indicator of climate change (Fu et al.,2016). Precipitation is a key factor of the global water cycle and affects all aspects of human life. Because of its great importance and its high spatial and temporal variability (Thies and Bendix.,2011). Climate change is caused many extreme climatic occurrences in recent decades. One of most important extreme events is extreme precipitation. The changes of temporal-spatial patterns of precipitation may potentially cause severe droughts or flood hazards (Jiang et al., 2008). There are many environmental damages which are related to these events. Precipitation events were examined and studied by many researchers. The purpose of the study is evaluating of the structure and origin of the events in the west of Iran. Studies about extereme precipitation is somewhat strong. Robert, 1993 evaluated many flashflood in United States which is related to short wave at 500 hgt level. Many researchers also studied this type of precipitation such as Kumar, 2008 and etc. Trend analysis is another approach is related to this scope. Globally, precipitation increases in equatorial rain bands; decreases in subtropics as greater tropical convection in the rising branch of the Hadley circulation will lead to enhanced subsidence in the subtropics; and increases in high-latitudes due to increase in moisture transport (Huang et al., 2013). Synoptic analysis of the events is required due to increseing trend of this events and tremendous socioeconomic impacts on many places. First, a 99 percentile for recognition of extereme precipitation is applied for daily precipitation during 2000-2015 at seven weather stations in the west of Iran. Then principal component analysis carried out in order to reduce correlated data (SLP, hgt at 500and 850level) which is associated to synoptic patterns. Two extereme precipitations are selected for synoptic analyses. In order to better perspective of these patterns analyses are performed using sea level pressure, 500 and 800 hgt level, omega, u-wind, V-wind, relative humidity, and TRMM precipitation Radar data. TRMM data is used due to satellite systems provide a unique opportunity to monitor Earth-atmosphere system processes and parameters continuously and the correct spatio-temporal detection and quantification of precipitation has been one of the main goals of meteorological satellite missions (Thies and Bendix.,2011).
The results of precipitation data showed extereme precipitation dates based on 99 percentile are as fallows during 2000-2015 time period: 29 Jan 2013, 30 Nov 2008 , 3 and 4 feb 2006, 25 Dec 2004, 13 jan 2004, 1 dec 2001, 24 mar 2000, 2 may 2010, 29 and 30 Oct 2015. After identitying extereme precipitations, PCA (principal component analysis) applied for SLP data, Geopotential hight at 500 and 850 levels data in oredr to recognition the synoptic patterns. The results indicate that there is only one component which explains 99 percent of variances of data. Therefore the one synoptic pattern incorporated in formation of extereme precipitation in the west of Iran. Then for better understanding of this pattern, we are selected two extereme precipitation reanalysis data (29 oct 2015) and (13 Jan 2004) and evaluated sea level pressure, 500 and 800 hgt level, omega, u-wind, V-wind, relative humidity, and TRMM precipitation Radar data in these dates. The purpose of this proccess was monitoring different parameter in two dates. The results illustrated interesting conditions which is related only to providing appropraite condition for extereme precipitation formation. Many conditions required to the events as fallows: SLP lower than 1000 hpa over the west of Iran, surface relative humidity larger than 70 percent, negative omega lower than -0.3, positive vortices which indicate cyclogenesis. Another most important factor which caused extereme precipitation is location of trough. In all cases, the western of Iran located in front of trough at 500 and 850 hpa. The Precipitation Radar of TRMM satellite also determined same precipitation patterns which are specific for the west of Iran. This is only one part of the heavy precipitation studies at west of Iran the authours sugesst climate change studies such as trend analysis in a long time period, simulation with regional models as Regcm and WRF, appling ERA-interim data which can provide fine spatial resolution up to 0.25 degree over study area which need to be done in order to completion of the results.
The results of precipitation data showed extereme precipitation dates based on 99 percentile are as fallows during 2000-2015 time period: 29 Jan 2013, 30 Nov 2008 , 3 and 4 feb 2006, 25 Dec 2004, 13 jan 2004, 1 dec 2001, 24 mar 2000, 2 may 2010, 29 and 30 Oct 2015. After identitying extereme precipitations, PCA (principal component analysis) applied for SLP data, Geopotential hight at 500 and 850 levels data in oredr to recognition the synoptic patterns. The results indicate that there is only one component which explains 99 percent of variances of data. Therefore the one synoptic pattern incorporated in formation of extereme precipitation in the west of Iran. Then for better understanding of this pattern, we are selected two extereme precipitation reanalysis data (29 oct 2015) and (13 Jan 2004) and evaluated sea level pressure, 500 and 800 hgt level, omega, u-wind, V-wind, relative humidity, and TRMM precipitation Radar data in these dates. The purpose of this proccess was monitoring different parameter in two dates. The results illustrated interesting conditions which is related only to providing appropraite condition for extereme precipitation formation. Many conditions required to the events as fallows: SLP lower than 1000 hpa over the west of Iran, surface relative humidity larger than 70 percent, negative omega lower than -0.3, positive vortices which indicate cyclogenesis. Another most important factor which caused extereme precipitation is location of trough. In all cases, the western of Iran located in front of trough at 500 and 850 hpa. The Precipitation Radar of TRMM satellite also determined same precipitation patterns which are specific for the west of Iran. This is only one part of the heavy precipitation studies at west of Iran the authours sugesst climate change studies such as trend analysis in a long time period, simulation with regional models as Regcm and WRF, appling ERA-interim data which can provide fine spatial resolution up to 0.25 degree over study area which need to be done in order to completion of the results.
Khadijeh Karimi, Vahid Riahi, Farhad Azizpour, Aliakbar Taghilo,
Volume 4, Issue 2 (7-2017)
Volume 4, Issue 2 (7-2017)
Abstract
Human settlements as local -spatial systems are subject to continuous dynamism and transformation. In the meantime, rural settlements including; in Iran, as the most important establishment of population and activity, are exposed to the deepest environmental, ecological, social, economic and cultural changes. It is evident that in these developments, a variety of different and different forms of internal and external interactions Are creative However, most of these factors are somehow influenced by the management system that plays a role in the rural areas. This system, having different patterns, has a different effect on spatial systems.
The issue of drought has recently been the major concern all over the country and particularly in Urmia Basin. This is considered as a key factor in Urmia Lake crisis. Urmia's rural settlements are also affected by the management factor in a variety of spatial dimensions. The crisis of the dramatic decrease in Urmia Lake water and its management (decisions making) has posed a serious challenge to rural areas. This article to pursue to base management as a foreign factor on the basis of a good governance approach to the analysis and analysis of the role It focuses on the transformation of rural settlements in Urmia.
This research is applied in terms of its purpose and based on descriptive-analytical method. The statistical population of the study was the experts in the institutions related to the county crisis management. Experts from sample target communities were 70 people who were identified by a sample size determination method with an unknown community. A sample sampling method was used to select the samples. Data and information was collected using library and information technology. The questionnaire was used to assess the role of the management system in the framework of the components of a good governance approach and Referring to related research backgrounds, they were identified. To measure the normal distribution of data and appropriate regression selection, Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Dorbin Watson's tests were used. Also, for measuring the direct and indirect effects and the correlation between the components, Pearson's path analysis and Pearson correlation tests were used in SPSS software.
The findings of the research shows that the villages affected by the disaster management system in facing the risk of drying the Lake Urmia have encountered inappropriate environmental, social, economic and physical changes. These changes are influenced by the military mechanism that It is not due to being state-owned, focused, and open-minded; they are not accountable, legitimate, and efficient. In the meantime, the weakness of the legitimacy of failure in effective performance has had a direct impact on the disaster management inefficiency. Of course, other components such as weakness of pivotal justice, weakness of accountability, weakness of orientation affect the components of the weakness of legitimacy and weakness of the role Effectiveness has doubled disaster management inefficiencies.
The assessment of the disaster management system of Lake Urmia, based on the governance framework, indicates that the management system has not been efficient. This ineffectiveness, however, is heavily influenced by the weakness of legitimacy. But, indirectly influenced by other factors, including weakness of orientation, weakness of justice, and weakness of accountability. The important thing in this regard is the impact of the indirect factors on the legitimacy factor. By considering the nature of their direct and indirect factors, it is clear that the weak role of the villagers and the means to participate in disaster management, the cause of all problems In the countryside. Restoring Lake Urmia without paying attention to the villagers living around the Lake Urmia will be difficult. Therefore, giving villagers the role of the main beneficiaries of Lake Urmia Basin can help restore Lake Urmia.infact,Communities are the first responders in case of a disaster. Therefore, community-based disaster risk management should be the core of any risk reduction approach. community based Disaster risk management focuses more on community participation and reducing underlying risk, encouraging preventive action before a disaster. and focuses on participation on design, decision and performance for better management of disasters.
The issue of drought has recently been the major concern all over the country and particularly in Urmia Basin. This is considered as a key factor in Urmia Lake crisis. Urmia's rural settlements are also affected by the management factor in a variety of spatial dimensions. The crisis of the dramatic decrease in Urmia Lake water and its management (decisions making) has posed a serious challenge to rural areas. This article to pursue to base management as a foreign factor on the basis of a good governance approach to the analysis and analysis of the role It focuses on the transformation of rural settlements in Urmia.
This research is applied in terms of its purpose and based on descriptive-analytical method. The statistical population of the study was the experts in the institutions related to the county crisis management. Experts from sample target communities were 70 people who were identified by a sample size determination method with an unknown community. A sample sampling method was used to select the samples. Data and information was collected using library and information technology. The questionnaire was used to assess the role of the management system in the framework of the components of a good governance approach and Referring to related research backgrounds, they were identified. To measure the normal distribution of data and appropriate regression selection, Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Dorbin Watson's tests were used. Also, for measuring the direct and indirect effects and the correlation between the components, Pearson's path analysis and Pearson correlation tests were used in SPSS software.
The findings of the research shows that the villages affected by the disaster management system in facing the risk of drying the Lake Urmia have encountered inappropriate environmental, social, economic and physical changes. These changes are influenced by the military mechanism that It is not due to being state-owned, focused, and open-minded; they are not accountable, legitimate, and efficient. In the meantime, the weakness of the legitimacy of failure in effective performance has had a direct impact on the disaster management inefficiency. Of course, other components such as weakness of pivotal justice, weakness of accountability, weakness of orientation affect the components of the weakness of legitimacy and weakness of the role Effectiveness has doubled disaster management inefficiencies.
The assessment of the disaster management system of Lake Urmia, based on the governance framework, indicates that the management system has not been efficient. This ineffectiveness, however, is heavily influenced by the weakness of legitimacy. But, indirectly influenced by other factors, including weakness of orientation, weakness of justice, and weakness of accountability. The important thing in this regard is the impact of the indirect factors on the legitimacy factor. By considering the nature of their direct and indirect factors, it is clear that the weak role of the villagers and the means to participate in disaster management, the cause of all problems In the countryside. Restoring Lake Urmia without paying attention to the villagers living around the Lake Urmia will be difficult. Therefore, giving villagers the role of the main beneficiaries of Lake Urmia Basin can help restore Lake Urmia.infact,Communities are the first responders in case of a disaster. Therefore, community-based disaster risk management should be the core of any risk reduction approach. community based Disaster risk management focuses more on community participation and reducing underlying risk, encouraging preventive action before a disaster. and focuses on participation on design, decision and performance for better management of disasters.
Hamed Abbasi, Siamak Sharafi, Zohreh Maryakji,
Volume 4, Issue 2 (7-2017)
Volume 4, Issue 2 (7-2017)
Abstract
Natural hazards are basically the changes that occur in environmental conditions, causing a disruption of the natural life of the people and their exposure to hazardous and degradable elements and elements. Establishing cities and residential areas on landforms has created new perspectives. The development of these areas has altered the geostationary balance of many landforms, and the response of geosystems is an expression of geomorphological hazards such as land subsidence, fault activity, flood, and the like that threatens residents of urban areas. The trend of population growth in the urban areas of Lorestan province in western Iran has also caused the physical expansion of the provincial cities in the periphery. This development has resulted in landslides and areas that, in many cases, have not been studied in environmental and environmental sustainability. The consequence of this is to increase the risk factor of these areas against a variety of hazards. In this regard, the aim of this study is to analyze the geomorphic hazards of earthquake, flood, landslide and liquefaction in the 9 major cities of the province and zonation of areas based on the degree of risk, in order to identify the high risk areas, urban management, necessary measures to increase environmental capabilities. And reduce vulnerabilities
In this research, effective factors were first identified in the occurrence of each of the flood geomorphic hazards, landslide, earthquake and fluidization. Then, maps were prepared for each of the factors, topographic maps, geology, geological data, seismicity, etc. from different organizations and maps were prepared. After preparing the maps, the fuzzy standardization method (decreasing and incremental functions) was used to determine the effective impact of each of the effective information layers in the occurrence of each of the hazards. In the final stage, considering the factors affecting the occurrence of any geomorphic hazards, weighing to layers based on their degree of importance was carried out using (AHP) method. At this stage, the final weight of each layer was multiplied in the corresponding layer, and then together and the final map of each of the geomorphic hazards was prepared. After mapping each of the geomorphic hazards of the studied cities, weighing and combining earthquake, flood, landslide and fluidization layers, maps of geomorphic maps of the cities were prepared.
The study of the geomorphic hazards of the city of Poldokhtar in the south of the province suggests that flood occurrence is considered as the most important threat to the geomorphic city of Poldokhtar. There is also a possibility of liquefaction due to the high groundwater level, especially in the north of the city. In the city of Kohdasht, in the west of the province, the risk of flood events is higher than the other hazards due to the river passing as a drainage of the catchment from the city. Geomorphic hazards in the northern city of northern Lorestan indicate that the central part of the city is at risk of landslide and liquefaction and parts of the north, west and south are exposed to flood. The probability of occurrence of geomorphic hazards in the area of Alshatr in the north of Lorestan province is low. So that the northwest and eastern parts of the city are risk free and in other parts, the risk of geomorphic hazards is moderate and low. Surveying the risks of Boroujerd city indicates that parts of the West of the city that are in high risk of flood, landslide and liquefaction are known as high risk areas and southern regions as low risk areas. Also, among the threats of Borujerd city, the probability of an earthquake due to the crossing of the young Zagros fault from the Silakhor plain is more than the other geomorphic hazards. In the city of Azna, the risk of flooding is considered to be the most significant danger to the city, although there is a likelihood of landslide and fluidization. The study of geomorphic hazards in the city of Aligudarz shows that rivers in the west of the city are exposed to geomorphic hazards, especially flood. In the city of Dorood, the flood event seems more likely than other hazards. The flood event in the central part of the city, which crosses the main rivers, has the highest potential. But in general, the risk of an earthquake is the most important geopolitical risk in the city of Dorood. In the city of Khorramabad as the capital of Lorestan province, the southern parts of the city have the highest geomorphic risk due to the high potential of flood and liquefaction. Also, the flood risk is considered to be the most important geomorphic risk in the city.
The study of geomorphic hazards in the major cities of Lorestan province suggests that there is a probability of occurrence of hazards in urban areas, but the types of hazards are different in cities located in the west and east of the province. Studies show that there is a potential for flood events in many cities, especially in southern cities and Khorramabad, in the capital of the province. Cities located in the east of the province (Doroud, Azna and Boroujerd) have a high density of earthquake occurrence due to the fact that they are located in the zone of the young Zagros fault and the Seychelles seismic quake. Nevertheless, according to geological formations, there is a possibility of landslide occurrence in the cities of Khorramabad and Aligudarz. The likelihood of occurrence of liquefaction occurrence in the studied cities is higher, especially in the eastern province of the province, because the urban areas are mainly located in plains with high groundwater and alluvial soils. The final results show that the risk of flood in the western regions of Lorestan province and the earthquake in the eastern provinces of the province are the most important threats to geomorphic cities.
In this research, effective factors were first identified in the occurrence of each of the flood geomorphic hazards, landslide, earthquake and fluidization. Then, maps were prepared for each of the factors, topographic maps, geology, geological data, seismicity, etc. from different organizations and maps were prepared. After preparing the maps, the fuzzy standardization method (decreasing and incremental functions) was used to determine the effective impact of each of the effective information layers in the occurrence of each of the hazards. In the final stage, considering the factors affecting the occurrence of any geomorphic hazards, weighing to layers based on their degree of importance was carried out using (AHP) method. At this stage, the final weight of each layer was multiplied in the corresponding layer, and then together and the final map of each of the geomorphic hazards was prepared. After mapping each of the geomorphic hazards of the studied cities, weighing and combining earthquake, flood, landslide and fluidization layers, maps of geomorphic maps of the cities were prepared.
The study of the geomorphic hazards of the city of Poldokhtar in the south of the province suggests that flood occurrence is considered as the most important threat to the geomorphic city of Poldokhtar. There is also a possibility of liquefaction due to the high groundwater level, especially in the north of the city. In the city of Kohdasht, in the west of the province, the risk of flood events is higher than the other hazards due to the river passing as a drainage of the catchment from the city. Geomorphic hazards in the northern city of northern Lorestan indicate that the central part of the city is at risk of landslide and liquefaction and parts of the north, west and south are exposed to flood. The probability of occurrence of geomorphic hazards in the area of Alshatr in the north of Lorestan province is low. So that the northwest and eastern parts of the city are risk free and in other parts, the risk of geomorphic hazards is moderate and low. Surveying the risks of Boroujerd city indicates that parts of the West of the city that are in high risk of flood, landslide and liquefaction are known as high risk areas and southern regions as low risk areas. Also, among the threats of Borujerd city, the probability of an earthquake due to the crossing of the young Zagros fault from the Silakhor plain is more than the other geomorphic hazards. In the city of Azna, the risk of flooding is considered to be the most significant danger to the city, although there is a likelihood of landslide and fluidization. The study of geomorphic hazards in the city of Aligudarz shows that rivers in the west of the city are exposed to geomorphic hazards, especially flood. In the city of Dorood, the flood event seems more likely than other hazards. The flood event in the central part of the city, which crosses the main rivers, has the highest potential. But in general, the risk of an earthquake is the most important geopolitical risk in the city of Dorood. In the city of Khorramabad as the capital of Lorestan province, the southern parts of the city have the highest geomorphic risk due to the high potential of flood and liquefaction. Also, the flood risk is considered to be the most important geomorphic risk in the city.
The study of geomorphic hazards in the major cities of Lorestan province suggests that there is a probability of occurrence of hazards in urban areas, but the types of hazards are different in cities located in the west and east of the province. Studies show that there is a potential for flood events in many cities, especially in southern cities and Khorramabad, in the capital of the province. Cities located in the east of the province (Doroud, Azna and Boroujerd) have a high density of earthquake occurrence due to the fact that they are located in the zone of the young Zagros fault and the Seychelles seismic quake. Nevertheless, according to geological formations, there is a possibility of landslide occurrence in the cities of Khorramabad and Aligudarz. The likelihood of occurrence of liquefaction occurrence in the studied cities is higher, especially in the eastern province of the province, because the urban areas are mainly located in plains with high groundwater and alluvial soils. The final results show that the risk of flood in the western regions of Lorestan province and the earthquake in the eastern provinces of the province are the most important threats to geomorphic cities.
Manijeh Ahmadi,
Volume 4, Issue 2 (7-2017)
Volume 4, Issue 2 (7-2017)
Abstract
In the recent years there has been attention on the management of dangerous wastes because of their incremental growth, since ignorance toward this problem will result in numerous environmental, social and economical problems. Finding an optimized place for the urban and rural waste burial, with least environmental danger and economical optimality is one of the main objectives of this paper. In the presented study, the research method and the type of practical research is description-analysis and for data gathering, we used the library and athletic studies. The data analysis has been done by a scoring method (5-0) and the web analysis method which is a multi-objective decision-making method. Since in the ANP method the qualitative and quantitative factors and the correlation of the factors have been taken into account, we used social, economical and environmental factors for evaluation of the waste burial centers and their impacts on the towns and villages of the Zanjan province. The process of evaluation of the optimal waste burial centers is done in some stages including preparation of distance maps, prioritizing from the importance point of view using the geographical information system technologies (GIS), determination of the weights and at last, merging the resulted maps using the ANP method. The research results show that the prioritized regions in the map are based on the waste burial places. Based on this method, the 5th priority in the maps and especially in the final map shows the most suitable place and the 1th priority shows the least value and the 0 priority has no value for the waste burial places.
Mojtaba Rafiean, Hadi Rezai Rad,
Volume 4, Issue 3 (9-2017)
Volume 4, Issue 3 (9-2017)
Abstract
The simplest definition of urbanization is that urbanization is the process of becoming urban. Urban climate is defined by specific climate conditions which differ from surrounding rural areas. Urban areas, for example, have higher temperatures than surrounding rural areas and weaker winds. Land Surface Temperature is an important phenomenon in global climate change. As the green house gases in the atmosphere increases, the LST will also increase. Energy and water exchanges at the biosphere–atmosphere interface have major influences on the Earth's weather and climate. Numerical models ranging from local to global scales must represent and predict effects of surface fluxes. The urban thermal environment is influenced by the physical characteristics of the land surface and by human socioeconomic activities. The thermal environment can be considered to be the most important indicator for representing the urban environment. Vegetation is another important component of the urban ecosystem that has been the subject of much basic and applied research. Urban vegetation influences the physical environment of cities through selective absorption and reflection of incident radiation and regulation of latent and sensible heat exchange Satellite-borne instruments can provide quantitative physical data at high spatial or temporal resolutions. Visible and near-infrared remote sensing systems have been used extensively to classify phenomena such as city growth, land use /cover changes, vegetation index and population statistics. Finally, we propose a model applying non-parametric regression to estimate future urban climate patterns using predicted Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and Heat Island Intensity.
I conducted all spatial analysis in the UTM Zone 39 Northern Hemisphere projection. The fundamental procedure I used for evaluating change in land surface temperature was to relative temperature for both images, so that the values are temperature difference between the coldest and hottest areas in Tehran metropolitan. subtracting these images from each other results in relative temperature change from 2003 to 2015. Landsat satellite data were used to extract land use/land cover information and their changes for the abovementioned cities. Land surface temperature was retrieved from Landsat thermal images. The relationship between land surface temperature and landuse /land-cover classes, as well as the normalized vegetation index (NDVI) was analyzed.
In this study, LST for Tehran metropolitan was derived using SW algorithm with the use of Landsat 8 Optical Land Imager (OLI) of 30 m resolution and Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIR) data of 100 m resolution. SW algorithm needs spectral radiance and emissivity of two TIR bands as input for deriving LST. The spectral radiance was estimated using TIR bands 10 and 11. Emissivity was derived with the help of land cover threshold technique for which OLI bands 2, 3, 4 and 5 were used. The output revealed that LST was high in the barren regions whereas it was low in the hilly regions because of vegetative cover. As the SW algorithm uses both the TIR bands (10 and 11) and OLI bands 2, 3, 4 and 5, the LST generated using them were more reliable and accurate. NDVI negatively affected LST and Urban Heat Island in vegetation areas in 2003 and 2015 in Tehran metropolitan. This analysis provides an effective tool in evaluating the environmental influences of zoning in urban ecosystems with remote sensing and geographical information systems. This method exhibits a promising performance in UHI forecast. The predicted LST confirms that urban growth has severely influenced UHI pattern through expanding the hot area. Our study confirmed that LST prediction performance is strongly depended on the resolution.
The results reveal that the urban LST is affected mainly by the land surface characteristics and has a close relation to the abundance of vegetation greenness. The spatial distance from the UHI centre is another important factor influencing the LST in some areas. The methodology presented in this paper can be broadly applied in other metropolitans which exhibit a similar dynamic growth. Our findings can represent a useful tool for policy makers and the community awareness of environmental assessment by providing a scientific basis for sustainable urban planning and management. This provides an effective tool in evaluating the vegetation greenness of different zoning in urban ecosystems with remote sensing and geographical information systems. From the perspective of land use planning and urban management, it is recommend that planners and policy makers should pay serious attention to future land use policies that maintain a relevant proportion of public space, green areas, and land surface physical characteristics.
I conducted all spatial analysis in the UTM Zone 39 Northern Hemisphere projection. The fundamental procedure I used for evaluating change in land surface temperature was to relative temperature for both images, so that the values are temperature difference between the coldest and hottest areas in Tehran metropolitan. subtracting these images from each other results in relative temperature change from 2003 to 2015. Landsat satellite data were used to extract land use/land cover information and their changes for the abovementioned cities. Land surface temperature was retrieved from Landsat thermal images. The relationship between land surface temperature and landuse /land-cover classes, as well as the normalized vegetation index (NDVI) was analyzed.
In this study, LST for Tehran metropolitan was derived using SW algorithm with the use of Landsat 8 Optical Land Imager (OLI) of 30 m resolution and Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIR) data of 100 m resolution. SW algorithm needs spectral radiance and emissivity of two TIR bands as input for deriving LST. The spectral radiance was estimated using TIR bands 10 and 11. Emissivity was derived with the help of land cover threshold technique for which OLI bands 2, 3, 4 and 5 were used. The output revealed that LST was high in the barren regions whereas it was low in the hilly regions because of vegetative cover. As the SW algorithm uses both the TIR bands (10 and 11) and OLI bands 2, 3, 4 and 5, the LST generated using them were more reliable and accurate. NDVI negatively affected LST and Urban Heat Island in vegetation areas in 2003 and 2015 in Tehran metropolitan. This analysis provides an effective tool in evaluating the environmental influences of zoning in urban ecosystems with remote sensing and geographical information systems. This method exhibits a promising performance in UHI forecast. The predicted LST confirms that urban growth has severely influenced UHI pattern through expanding the hot area. Our study confirmed that LST prediction performance is strongly depended on the resolution.
The results reveal that the urban LST is affected mainly by the land surface characteristics and has a close relation to the abundance of vegetation greenness. The spatial distance from the UHI centre is another important factor influencing the LST in some areas. The methodology presented in this paper can be broadly applied in other metropolitans which exhibit a similar dynamic growth. Our findings can represent a useful tool for policy makers and the community awareness of environmental assessment by providing a scientific basis for sustainable urban planning and management. This provides an effective tool in evaluating the vegetation greenness of different zoning in urban ecosystems with remote sensing and geographical information systems. From the perspective of land use planning and urban management, it is recommend that planners and policy makers should pay serious attention to future land use policies that maintain a relevant proportion of public space, green areas, and land surface physical characteristics.
Taghi Tavousi, Mohsen Hamidianpour, Rashed Dahani,
Volume 4, Issue 3 (9-2017)
Volume 4, Issue 3 (9-2017)
Abstract
Thunderstorms are one of the most important, abundant and severe atmospheric hazards. In addition to destroying a large amount of agricultural products and construction projects, cause many human casualties are annually in different parts of the world (Iran Pour and et al, 2015). This phenomenon is associated with severe storms, showery precipitation, hail (Puranik and Karekar, 2004), and thunder and lightning (Nath et al, 2009). These storms occur 50,000 times on a daily Basis. They account for 18,000,000 yearly (Ahrens, 2009). Extensive studies have been conducted in Iran and the world in this regard. For example, Wallace (1995) examined the abundance of lightning in the United States using 100 stations. He concluded that the greatest frequency of convectional showers occurs early in the night and at least at midnight. Sterling (2003) described the thunderstorms as a major dilemma for the United States in the twentieth century. The environmental and economic consequences of thunderstorms and their associated phenomena such as floods, hail and heavy precipitation are believed to be very ruinous on the US economy. Sistan and Baluchistan Province, Iran has annually been witnessing a variety of thunderstorms systems and associated precipitation. The province has suffered lots of damage resulted from the phenomena caused by thunderstorms. Therefore, this article aimed for a spatial analysis and the frequency of thunderstorm occurrences at different time scales. The article also examines the temporal variations and trends. The secondary questions outlined here are as follows: At what time of day do thunderstorms occur? How are thunderstorms recorded as various codes? Which one of these codes is the most commonly reported one? In terms of location, what are the stations with the greatest and least number of thunderstorms?
The area under study is Sistan and Baluchistan Province, Iran. With an area of almost 187,502 km2, the province is located in the southeastern part of Iran, on the Oman Sea coast and in the vicinity of Pakistan and Afghanistan. The province has 300 km water border with the Oman Sea in south, 1100 km land border with Pakistan and Afghanistan to the East, Khorasan Province to the North, and Kerman and Hormozgan to the West (Ebrahim Zadeh, 2009).
In this study, the frequency of thunderstorms was extracted based on 7 synoptic stations and the used of Presence Weather Codes. Temporal variations were then studied using the Man-Kendal and Sen's non-parametric tests. Finally, the relationship between the thunderstorms and ENSO was investigated. Meanwhile, spatial dispersion was also taken into account.
The results showed that thunderstorms have a peak region in southeast part with the center of the Saravan and Iranshahr stations and a minimum area in the Oman Sea coasts (Konarak and Chabahar). More precisely, Saravan Station scored the top with 567 thunders and lightning, while Konarak Station hit the lowest point with 96 in this 30-year period. In the maximum thunderstorm region, Saravan and Iranshahr are the main centers during different seasons so that the number of thunderstorms is higher in summer and fall in Iranshahr compared to Saravan. In winter and fall, such thunderstorms, caused by extra-tropical origin, are more in Saravan than Iranshahr Station.
The results of hourly investigations of thunderstorms showed that most of thunderstorms occur at noon and 3:00 p.m. Codes 13 and 17 were the most frequently reported codes with 605 and 571 occurrences, respectively, Codes 99 and 5 were the least. Monthly investigations showed that May and March had the highest number of thunderstorms (322 and 317, respectively), while September accounted for the least number (55). Quarterly investigations showed that spring had the highest number of thunderstorms (756) followed by winter (559). These thunderstorms are seen in spring more than other seasons because of the passage of extra-tropical air masses, which is abundant in the region under study. Summer, which is the Sub-tropical High pressure (STHP) season, had the least number of thunderstorms (340 occurrences of thunder and lightning). These thunderstorms mainly occur in Iranshahr and Saravan Stations, which was proven in the spatial analysis. The summer incidence increase of the thunderstorms is rooted in the Monsoon systems, preparing the ground for the phenomenon. The temporal variations at different monthly, quarterly, and yearly scales showed that no significant differences are found in thunderstorm trends. The phenomenon has experienced enormous fluctuations, likely to be associated with complex changes of macro-climate patterns. El Nino and the Lanino are likely to be the main factors affecting the ENSO's warm and cold phases. According to the results, almost 70% of thunderstorms are associated with the El Nino. In other words, more thunderstorms are expected during ENSO's warm phase.
The area under study is Sistan and Baluchistan Province, Iran. With an area of almost 187,502 km2, the province is located in the southeastern part of Iran, on the Oman Sea coast and in the vicinity of Pakistan and Afghanistan. The province has 300 km water border with the Oman Sea in south, 1100 km land border with Pakistan and Afghanistan to the East, Khorasan Province to the North, and Kerman and Hormozgan to the West (Ebrahim Zadeh, 2009).
In this study, the frequency of thunderstorms was extracted based on 7 synoptic stations and the used of Presence Weather Codes. Temporal variations were then studied using the Man-Kendal and Sen's non-parametric tests. Finally, the relationship between the thunderstorms and ENSO was investigated. Meanwhile, spatial dispersion was also taken into account.
The results showed that thunderstorms have a peak region in southeast part with the center of the Saravan and Iranshahr stations and a minimum area in the Oman Sea coasts (Konarak and Chabahar). More precisely, Saravan Station scored the top with 567 thunders and lightning, while Konarak Station hit the lowest point with 96 in this 30-year period. In the maximum thunderstorm region, Saravan and Iranshahr are the main centers during different seasons so that the number of thunderstorms is higher in summer and fall in Iranshahr compared to Saravan. In winter and fall, such thunderstorms, caused by extra-tropical origin, are more in Saravan than Iranshahr Station.
The results of hourly investigations of thunderstorms showed that most of thunderstorms occur at noon and 3:00 p.m. Codes 13 and 17 were the most frequently reported codes with 605 and 571 occurrences, respectively, Codes 99 and 5 were the least. Monthly investigations showed that May and March had the highest number of thunderstorms (322 and 317, respectively), while September accounted for the least number (55). Quarterly investigations showed that spring had the highest number of thunderstorms (756) followed by winter (559). These thunderstorms are seen in spring more than other seasons because of the passage of extra-tropical air masses, which is abundant in the region under study. Summer, which is the Sub-tropical High pressure (STHP) season, had the least number of thunderstorms (340 occurrences of thunder and lightning). These thunderstorms mainly occur in Iranshahr and Saravan Stations, which was proven in the spatial analysis. The summer incidence increase of the thunderstorms is rooted in the Monsoon systems, preparing the ground for the phenomenon. The temporal variations at different monthly, quarterly, and yearly scales showed that no significant differences are found in thunderstorm trends. The phenomenon has experienced enormous fluctuations, likely to be associated with complex changes of macro-climate patterns. El Nino and the Lanino are likely to be the main factors affecting the ENSO's warm and cold phases. According to the results, almost 70% of thunderstorms are associated with the El Nino. In other words, more thunderstorms are expected during ENSO's warm phase.
Fatemeh Razzaghi Borkhani, Ahmad Rezvanfar, Syed Hamid Movahed Mohammadi, Syed Yousof Hejazi,
Volume 4, Issue 3 (9-2017)
Volume 4, Issue 3 (9-2017)
Abstract
Agricultural development depends on increasing production and productivity and reducing risks threatening the agricultural sector and in the shadow of extension risk management that can be prevented of wasting and damage to agricultural crops and the provision of necessary domestic agricultural production, also providing export and currency-made to advance the country's development goals. Pay attention to the strategic location of Mazandaran in citrus products, natural hazards that threaten citrus production each year in the economic development, production and exports and providing sustainable livelihoods to farmers affected negatively. Agriculture and in particular the subdivision gardening, due to dependence on weather conditions, the brunt of climate change is undergoing, horticulture stable on long-term behavior growers to ensure the stability and productivity of the land in the future is created and the expectations and concerns of the community intended to provide a food healthy and security to protect the environment and natural hazards reduction is concerned.
The main purpose of this study was to investigate Mechanisms of Reducing Natural Disasters and Risk Management to Sustainable of Citrus Gardens in Mazandaran Province. The Population consists of all citrus farmers in the villages of 12 counties of Mazandaran province, a sample of 290 farmers was selected by using proportional random sampling method among 122361 citrus Orchard men. Data were collected by means of a questionnaire. The Validity of questionnaire was determined through sustainable agriculture experts of Mazandaran County and some faculty members at the University of Tehran, Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, Agricultural Management and Development. The reliability was found to be acceptable. Diagnostic validity by using an average variance extracted (AVE) and reliability by using Cronbach's alpha and composite reliability (CR) were confirmed. To explain the mechanisms Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) was used to modeling the structural equations using LISREL software, version 8.80.
According to the results of the ranking factors related to the mechanism in dimensions, "supportive - credit", "environmental - spatial", "socio-participation", "knowledge-awareness", "infrastructure-institutional "," educational –informational" and "economic factors" respectively were mostly mechanisms and strategies based on factor coefficient. Among the credit-supportive, "insurance" has had the most important role in the structure of credit-supportive factor, thus, according to the regional agricultural insurance and damages in the event that the actual performance of the target area is less than the guaranteed performance is a good solution. One of the major goals of sustainable agricultural systems is decreasing vulnerability and improving sustainable livelihoods in rural people. Therefore adoption of GAP technologies has emphasized to increase elimination of pest with minimum impact on the environment, human health and access to sustainable agricultural development, (achieve to environmental, economic and social sustainability) as well as attention to the sustainability of on-farm activities to certain safety and quality of food and non-food agricultural crops. According to the study, understanding and awareness of farmers to improve skills and farming and horticulture management techniques to reducing natural disasters and risk management and expand the participation of farmers in risk management, to develop processing and packaging industries, convenient and refrigeration practices for storage and preservation of agricultural and horticultural crops, in addition to communication channels network through demonstration farms, farmer field schools, workshops, field days, meeting, SMS, and information and communication channels carried by ICT as necessary solutions recommended. This Provides Information and knowledge share among orchardist and strengthening local associations and with each other. This process helps them to increase their awareness about mechanisms of reducing natural disasters and risk management to sustainable of citrus gardens and find positive attitude toward it. This output complete sustainability goals of agriculture through improving social sustainability. In order to access growers to timely sales service products, the establishment of a new extension system based on an available market with up to date and secure information as Marketing Information Services (MIS) could be a suitable strategy for orchardists in order to access sustainable development.
The main purpose of this study was to investigate Mechanisms of Reducing Natural Disasters and Risk Management to Sustainable of Citrus Gardens in Mazandaran Province. The Population consists of all citrus farmers in the villages of 12 counties of Mazandaran province, a sample of 290 farmers was selected by using proportional random sampling method among 122361 citrus Orchard men. Data were collected by means of a questionnaire. The Validity of questionnaire was determined through sustainable agriculture experts of Mazandaran County and some faculty members at the University of Tehran, Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, Agricultural Management and Development. The reliability was found to be acceptable. Diagnostic validity by using an average variance extracted (AVE) and reliability by using Cronbach's alpha and composite reliability (CR) were confirmed. To explain the mechanisms Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) was used to modeling the structural equations using LISREL software, version 8.80.
According to the results of the ranking factors related to the mechanism in dimensions, "supportive - credit", "environmental - spatial", "socio-participation", "knowledge-awareness", "infrastructure-institutional "," educational –informational" and "economic factors" respectively were mostly mechanisms and strategies based on factor coefficient. Among the credit-supportive, "insurance" has had the most important role in the structure of credit-supportive factor, thus, according to the regional agricultural insurance and damages in the event that the actual performance of the target area is less than the guaranteed performance is a good solution. One of the major goals of sustainable agricultural systems is decreasing vulnerability and improving sustainable livelihoods in rural people. Therefore adoption of GAP technologies has emphasized to increase elimination of pest with minimum impact on the environment, human health and access to sustainable agricultural development, (achieve to environmental, economic and social sustainability) as well as attention to the sustainability of on-farm activities to certain safety and quality of food and non-food agricultural crops. According to the study, understanding and awareness of farmers to improve skills and farming and horticulture management techniques to reducing natural disasters and risk management and expand the participation of farmers in risk management, to develop processing and packaging industries, convenient and refrigeration practices for storage and preservation of agricultural and horticultural crops, in addition to communication channels network through demonstration farms, farmer field schools, workshops, field days, meeting, SMS, and information and communication channels carried by ICT as necessary solutions recommended. This Provides Information and knowledge share among orchardist and strengthening local associations and with each other. This process helps them to increase their awareness about mechanisms of reducing natural disasters and risk management to sustainable of citrus gardens and find positive attitude toward it. This output complete sustainability goals of agriculture through improving social sustainability. In order to access growers to timely sales service products, the establishment of a new extension system based on an available market with up to date and secure information as Marketing Information Services (MIS) could be a suitable strategy for orchardists in order to access sustainable development.
Seyed Reza Azadeh, Masood Taghvaei,
Volume 4, Issue 3 (9-2017)
Volume 4, Issue 3 (9-2017)
Abstract
The field of natural hazards research has a rich history in geography, appropriately so because it involves conflicts between physical processes and human systems. Natural events occur without direct human effect and endanger his social life. Events that enforce average annual up to 150000 human damages and more than 140 milliard dollars financial damages on counties and especially developing countries. Among all the natural disasters, the earthquake is one of the most serious ones. It brings tremendous economic losses and deaths of people, as well as the enormous effects on the harmonious and continuous development of society. Iran is an event ism country in the world. In this field look at the recent decades earthquakes statistics that reveal average once in every five years.
Gilan province is located in south western of Caspian Sea in mountainous area of Talesh and central Alborz range that endure many earthquakes up today. The most ancient earthquake ever occurred in this area refers to Marlik civilization which is located near Rudbar – Rostam Abad. One of the recent earthquake in the 20th century in this area is Rudbar earthquake in 21 Jun 1990 with magnitude Ms = 7.7 Richter that caused many destruction. In one hand according to complex tectonic of central Alborz and in the other hand locating Gilan in the south west of Caspian sea that demonstrate many seismic activities, it illustrates as a result that this area is one of the active high potential seismic area of Iran.
The current study is aimed at investigating the earthquake vulnerability of rural and urban settlements of Gilan province. To this end, Euclidean distant analysis and raster overlay have been conducted in GIS. To run the procedure, the first step is to calculate distance (pixels in 86 m dimension) between province and active and inactive fault line based on Euclidean analysis distance in Arc Map. The next step is aimed at standardizing the calculated distances using Raster Calculator Command. The, zoning of earthquake vulnerability of Gilan into five zones (based on active/inactive faults) is the primary goal. As a matter of fact, standardization leads to fuzzy maps. Standard score (distance) is calculated by dividing each score by sum of the scores. The next step tries to categorize zoning map and to translate Raster map into vector one in order to calculate the area of each risk category. Finally, overlay of urban and rural layers base on zoning map may help us analyze seismic hazard urban and rural regions of Gilan province.
Results have shown that 40.72 % of total area of Gilan province are in 15 km distance from active fault. Also, 21.51 % of total area of Gilan province are in 15 to 30 km distance from active fault. Additionally, 64.45 % of total area of Gilan province are in less than 8 km distance from inactive fault (Table 1).
Table 1. Seismic hazard zonation according to faults
Gilan province is located in south western of Caspian Sea in mountainous area of Talesh and central Alborz range that endure many earthquakes up today. The most ancient earthquake ever occurred in this area refers to Marlik civilization which is located near Rudbar – Rostam Abad. One of the recent earthquake in the 20th century in this area is Rudbar earthquake in 21 Jun 1990 with magnitude Ms = 7.7 Richter that caused many destruction. In one hand according to complex tectonic of central Alborz and in the other hand locating Gilan in the south west of Caspian sea that demonstrate many seismic activities, it illustrates as a result that this area is one of the active high potential seismic area of Iran.
The current study is aimed at investigating the earthquake vulnerability of rural and urban settlements of Gilan province. To this end, Euclidean distant analysis and raster overlay have been conducted in GIS. To run the procedure, the first step is to calculate distance (pixels in 86 m dimension) between province and active and inactive fault line based on Euclidean analysis distance in Arc Map. The next step is aimed at standardizing the calculated distances using Raster Calculator Command. The, zoning of earthquake vulnerability of Gilan into five zones (based on active/inactive faults) is the primary goal. As a matter of fact, standardization leads to fuzzy maps. Standard score (distance) is calculated by dividing each score by sum of the scores. The next step tries to categorize zoning map and to translate Raster map into vector one in order to calculate the area of each risk category. Finally, overlay of urban and rural layers base on zoning map may help us analyze seismic hazard urban and rural regions of Gilan province.
Results have shown that 40.72 % of total area of Gilan province are in 15 km distance from active fault. Also, 21.51 % of total area of Gilan province are in 15 to 30 km distance from active fault. Additionally, 64.45 % of total area of Gilan province are in less than 8 km distance from inactive fault (Table 1).
Table 1. Seismic hazard zonation according to faults
| Probability of earthquake hazard | Distance to fault lines | Relative area | |||
| Active Faults | Passive Faults | Active Faults | Passive Faults | ||
| Very low risk | 0-20 | 60-76 | 32-42 | 7.29 | 1.42 |
| Low risk | 20-40 | 45-60 | 24-32 | 13.82 | 3.96 |
| Medium risk | 40-60 | 30-45 | 16-24 | 16.66 | 8.13 |
| High risk | 60-80 | 15-30 | 8-16 | 21.51 | 22.04 |
| Very high risk | 80-100 | 0-15 | 0-8 | 40.72 | 64.45 |
| sum | - | 100 | |||
According to seismic hazards due to active faults, 18 cities out of 51 urban regions are severely vulnerable to earthquake. Accordingly, 67.20 % of Gilan urban population are located at high-risk zone. Seismic hazard zoning map based on active faults have indicated that 20 cities are highly vulnerable to earthquake. (Table 2)
Table 2. Investigating the risk of earthquake in urban areas of Guilan province
| Probability of earthquake hazard | urban Settlement | Population (2011) | Relative population frequency (percent) | ||||
| Active Faults | Passive Faults | Active Faults | Passive Faults | Active Faults | Passive Faults | ||
| Very low risk | 0-20 | 3 | 1 | 135846 | 17106 | 1.14 | 9.07 |
| Low risk | 20-40 | 6 | 4 | 86133 | 144021 | 9.62 | 5.75 |
| Medium risk | 40-60 | 10 | 8 | 739095 | 754968 | 50.43 | 49.37 |
| High risk | 60-80 | 14 | 18 | 380908 | 273137 | 18.24 | 25.44 |
| Very high risk | 80-100 | 18 | 20 | 155188 | 307938 | 20.57 | 10.37 |
| sum | 51 | 1497170 | 100 | ||||
Seismic studies on rural settlement of Gilan province have indicated that 1350 rural out of 2925 rural residences are severely vulnerable to earthquake because they are near to active faults. These regions are the habitat of 24.9 % of the total rural population. Zoning map based on inactive faults have shown that 1679 rural regions are vulnerable to earthquake (Table 3).
Table 3. Probability of earthquake hazard in rural settlements
| Probability of earthquake hazard | Rural Settlement | Population (2011) | Relative population frequency (percent) | ||||
| Active Faults | Passive Faults | Active Faults | Passive Faults | Active Faults | Passive Faults | ||
| Very low risk | 0-20 | 162 | 42 | 54240 | 30236 | 5.51 | 3.07 |
| Low risk | 20-40 | 379 | 147 | 183718 | 92018 | 18.68 | 9.35 |
| Medium risk | 40-60 | 481 | 291 | 255412 | 176183 | 25.96 | 17.91 |
| High risk | 60-80 | 553 | 766 | 245392 | 340448 | 24.95 | 34.61 |
| Very high risk | 80-100 | 1350 | 1679 | 244942 | 344819 | 24.90 | 35.05 |
| sum | 2925 | 983704 | 100 | ||||
Studies have claimed that the majority of rural and urban regions of Gilan province are severely earthquake-prone. It is due to geographic and natural features of the mentioned province. To this end, some recommendations are given:
- Meticulous supervision on safety of building from the stage of plan-making to administration which have to be based on engineering principles for earthquake-prone cities including Baresar, Ataqur, Asalem, Haviq, and Roodbar which are next to active faults
- Prevention of formation of suburbs and towns on southern and northern parts of Gilan because these parts are really vulnerable to earthquake
- Prediction of temporary accommodation in central Gilan because this part is less vulnerable to earthquake
- To equip buildings, hospitals, schools, and other buildings located in big cities including Rasht, Bandar-E Anzali, Fuman, and Lahijan with facilities required in case of earthquake
- To hold training courses in rural and urban parts of the mentioned province to make residents prepared for earthquake and for emergency evacuation
- To prioritize reformation of old and historical buildings in Rasht because Rasht is mostly laden with old buildings which are really vulnerable to earthquake
Farzaneh Sasanpour, Navid Ahangari, Sadegh Hajinejad,
Volume 4, Issue 3 (9-2017)
Volume 4, Issue 3 (9-2017)
Abstract
International studies show that the damages caused by natural hazards is essential that special attention to natural hazards in urban societies of the world, especially in urban areas of developing countries. In many of these communities needed new ways to deal with these challenges. This method should provide sufficient knowledge to identify the nature of problems and the identification of individual characteristics, socio-economic, physical, environmental and management, would in effect do the "Back to Balance" against natural hazards. This feature Back to Balance the same resiliency. The term resilience has a very long history and its use goes back at least a century BC. According to the different interpretations of the concept of resilience, this term is rooted in the traditions of various disciplines such as law, engineering, ecological and social sciences. Today, the concept of resilience has entered the field of planning with different orientations (social, economic, physical, and administrative, etc.).Although it still focuses more attention on environmental issues and a large part of its exploration dedicated to managing the environmental hazards such as earthquakes, floods, hurricanes and global warming. Tehran, as a result of political and economic influence, special conditions to deal with the crisis in terms of the influence of natural disasters and crisis management in terms of organizational structure and legal. In this respect, residential and urban areas of 12 with characteristic their history can be acute against the imbalances caused by natural hazards and create a crisis in urban life. Therefore, the present study has been prepared for the purpose of stability analysis flexibility in District 12 of Tehran metropolitan city.
This is of cognitive research that has been done for analytical and descriptive. All data is obtained in the manner of library and field. The library of available resources and work conducted the form of a questionnaire survey. Questionnaires have been used of type Likert spectrum (numerous, high, high, somewhat, relatively low, low and very low), and its completion is done by fieldwork. Statistical population has problems of urban planning experts, among them 80 people were interviewed for targeted samples. Resiliency that includes four dimensions (economic, social, ecological, environmental and institutional). Was approved the validity of the index by 7 experts manage urban planning problems. For measuring reliability coefficient is calculated Cronbach's alpha equal to 0/79. For data analysis, the use of statistical analysis such as frequency, maximum and minimum, average and standard deviations, T-Test one sample test and Friedman nonparametric test
The results of the indicators of urban resiliency against natural hazards suggests that economic indicators 73/24 Average been determined and relatively low level, ie below the average level. Results of the test showed one sample T-Test is an indicator of economic status of urban resilience against natural hazards of poor utility. As well as the social, ecological, environmental and institutional (organizational) urban resilience against natural hazards associated with poor utility. Finally the 12 metropolitan Tehran metropolitan areautility resilience against natural hazards with respect to all dimensions were too weak. Friedman test results on the scoreboard indicators showed that the index of environmental sustainability (20/33) related to the ecology and environment in the first rank the importance of urban resilience and adaptability Index System (10/11) related to next institutional (organizational) is set as the least significant indicator. Also, significant chi-square statistic is calculated at a rate of 09/67 in three degrees of freedom at the level of 0.000. So, with a probability of 99% can be said that there is a significant difference between the performance rating of 80 specialist urban resilience dimensions (economic, social, ecological, environmental and organizational) against natural hazards, and not the distribution of the same rank.
This research been prepared with the aim of assessing the scale of urban resilience against natural hazards in District 12 of Tehran Metropolis. Results showed that social, environmental and institutional ecology and urban resilience against natural hazards associated with poor desirability. According to this result, it is concluded that the region as a whole is resilient against natural hazards. In this direction, the resilience approach guidance to managers and practitioners use of flexible decisions and concerted policy for urban management. Build resilience in this area to support programmes should invest in organizing access to both external and existing resources in a fair manner, with a coordinated governance structure, and to facilitate social solidarity and support as part of disaster response. The findings also stress the importance of taking an ecological approach to studying resilience to disasters. Many factors from individual, community, and societal levels seem to be important in shaping resilience perceptions of natural hazards survivors. Understanding this evidence will help to validate and further develop indicators of resilience. Our findings point out that, despite existing pre-disaster vulnerabilities, resilience can be fostered following disasters if community members perceive availability of aid and support and mobilize resources Hence, psychosocial support programmes should invest in organizing access to both external and existing resources in a fair manner, with a coordinated governance structure, and to facilitate social solidarity and support as part of disaster response. The findings also stress the importance of taking an ecological approach to studying resilience to disasters. Many factors from individual, community, and societal levels seem to be important in shaping resilience perceptions of natural hazards survivors. Future research should conduct multiple levels of analysis with an all-hazards perspective to reveal how they can be integrated to increase adaptive capacities. Future research should focus on the process of capacity building through informing action to better prepare for disasters. Finally, this research tells us that due to the resiliency of the city will be able to have knowledge of all relevant indicators in the resiliency and reduce the adverse effects of these risks in urban communities
This is of cognitive research that has been done for analytical and descriptive. All data is obtained in the manner of library and field. The library of available resources and work conducted the form of a questionnaire survey. Questionnaires have been used of type Likert spectrum (numerous, high, high, somewhat, relatively low, low and very low), and its completion is done by fieldwork. Statistical population has problems of urban planning experts, among them 80 people were interviewed for targeted samples. Resiliency that includes four dimensions (economic, social, ecological, environmental and institutional). Was approved the validity of the index by 7 experts manage urban planning problems. For measuring reliability coefficient is calculated Cronbach's alpha equal to 0/79. For data analysis, the use of statistical analysis such as frequency, maximum and minimum, average and standard deviations, T-Test one sample test and Friedman nonparametric test
The results of the indicators of urban resiliency against natural hazards suggests that economic indicators 73/24 Average been determined and relatively low level, ie below the average level. Results of the test showed one sample T-Test is an indicator of economic status of urban resilience against natural hazards of poor utility. As well as the social, ecological, environmental and institutional (organizational) urban resilience against natural hazards associated with poor utility. Finally the 12 metropolitan Tehran metropolitan areautility resilience against natural hazards with respect to all dimensions were too weak. Friedman test results on the scoreboard indicators showed that the index of environmental sustainability (20/33) related to the ecology and environment in the first rank the importance of urban resilience and adaptability Index System (10/11) related to next institutional (organizational) is set as the least significant indicator. Also, significant chi-square statistic is calculated at a rate of 09/67 in three degrees of freedom at the level of 0.000. So, with a probability of 99% can be said that there is a significant difference between the performance rating of 80 specialist urban resilience dimensions (economic, social, ecological, environmental and organizational) against natural hazards, and not the distribution of the same rank.
This research been prepared with the aim of assessing the scale of urban resilience against natural hazards in District 12 of Tehran Metropolis. Results showed that social, environmental and institutional ecology and urban resilience against natural hazards associated with poor desirability. According to this result, it is concluded that the region as a whole is resilient against natural hazards. In this direction, the resilience approach guidance to managers and practitioners use of flexible decisions and concerted policy for urban management. Build resilience in this area to support programmes should invest in organizing access to both external and existing resources in a fair manner, with a coordinated governance structure, and to facilitate social solidarity and support as part of disaster response. The findings also stress the importance of taking an ecological approach to studying resilience to disasters. Many factors from individual, community, and societal levels seem to be important in shaping resilience perceptions of natural hazards survivors. Understanding this evidence will help to validate and further develop indicators of resilience. Our findings point out that, despite existing pre-disaster vulnerabilities, resilience can be fostered following disasters if community members perceive availability of aid and support and mobilize resources Hence, psychosocial support programmes should invest in organizing access to both external and existing resources in a fair manner, with a coordinated governance structure, and to facilitate social solidarity and support as part of disaster response. The findings also stress the importance of taking an ecological approach to studying resilience to disasters. Many factors from individual, community, and societal levels seem to be important in shaping resilience perceptions of natural hazards survivors. Future research should conduct multiple levels of analysis with an all-hazards perspective to reveal how they can be integrated to increase adaptive capacities. Future research should focus on the process of capacity building through informing action to better prepare for disasters. Finally, this research tells us that due to the resiliency of the city will be able to have knowledge of all relevant indicators in the resiliency and reduce the adverse effects of these risks in urban communities
Bohlole Alijani, Meysam Toulabi Nejad, Fariba Sayadi,
Volume 4, Issue 3 (9-2017)
Volume 4, Issue 3 (9-2017)
Abstract
Urban climate is strongly influenced by the processes of urban work and life. Expansion of cities and consequently increased human constructions causes to changes in urban climate. The rising temperature of cities rather than the surroundings is one of the effects linked to direct human intervention.
Building heating, air pollution and the use of inappropriate materials in the flooring streets (like asphalt streets due to dark colors in energy-absorption) are effective in phenomenon of urban heat islands that makes unfavorable environment for citizens. Paying attention to the urban surfaces like sidewalk, streets and rooftops has a great role in decreasing effect of this phenomenon. Due to growing urbanization and subsequently cities development, urban heat islands have taken a growing trend in big cities.
In general, the urban heat-island is a result of urbanity features, air pollution, human warmth, presence of impervious surfaces in the city, thermal properties of materials and geometry of urban areas. Heat island phenomenon is a result of many factors that are summarized below: (1) urban Geometry (morphometry) (2) thermal properties of materials which increase the sensible heat storage in the urban texture (3) released human heat as a result of fuel combustion and animal metabolism (4) urban greenhouse gases, leading to an increase in long wave radiation, atmospheric contamination and therefore warmer atmosphere (5) reduction of evaporation levels in cities, which means that energy will be released more as tangible rather than latent heat (6) reduction of turbulence and heat transfer through the streets.
This study aimed to simulate and calculate the maximum amount of heat island (UHI max) according to the conditions of urban geometry in the region of Kucheh bagh in Tabriz that is a pioneer study in Iran.
The study area is located in Kuche bagh region at the intersection of the streets of Ghods and Farvardin in the city of Tabriz.
The Oke’s numerical-theoretical equation was used for this study. First, the geometry of the target area using the radius of 15 meters from the axis of the road was divided into separate blocks. The ratio of street width (W) and height of buildings (H) was calculated in GIS software and at the end, the intensity of UHImax was calculated and simulated using Oke equation.
The urban geometry including building height and street width is calculated using Equation 1.
The theoretical- numerical basis of this equation shows that simulation of H/W ratio is an appropriate ways to describe urban geometry. Increasing the value of this ratio could lead to an increase in urban heat-island through modeling. This model has many advantages compared to other methods used to estimate the urban heat island. So, the selected parameter to calculate urban geometry and the model used to estimate the maximum intensity of heat island is the ratio of H / W and OKE model, respectively. In addition, the average height of buildings located within a radius of 15 meters and an average width of passages were calculated from the equation 2 and 3, respectively.
After calculating the geometry of the study area, the results showed that the blocks E, G and D in terms of height of the buildings have a heterogeneous distribution, but the distribution of blocks C, I and J is illustrative of their standard configuration. Although the blocks E, F and J in terms of street width are less diverse compared to other blocks, but in terms of height of buildings (8.6, 7 and 5 meters) have a different pattern that maximum values of their UHI are 8.3, 7.5 and 6.3 degrees, respectively. Three blocks B, H and I, in addition to their similarity according to street width and height of the buildings, in terms of the ratio of H / W and heat island intensity with the values of 9.6, 9.8 and 10.2 degrees are homogeneous.
It was also found that the greatest difference between the H / W ratio is related to block A (0.54) and block H (1.98); this difference has caused that greatest difference between the maximum intensity of UHI would calculated between the two blocks equal to 5.2 degree.
Misconfiguration causes that energy leaving from city surface deal with the problem due to narrow passages and high buildings. Therefore, consideration appropriate width of passages and streets and height of buildings are necessary to ease heat leaving and reduce intensity of UHI.
These simulations showed that high buildings and narrow streets intensify the heat islands. While in the presence of short buildings and wide streets, the UHI max is lowered. When the ratio H / W in the studied urban area is between 0.54 to 0.81, UHI max remains between 5 to 6.6 C˚, when this ratio increases to 1.01 to 1.98, UHI max will be between 7.5 and 10.2 C˚. The result also revealed that block A and H with 5 and 10.2 C˚ have the minimum and maximum value of UHI intensity, respectively. So can be concluded that block A and H have the most standard and non-standard urban configuration in the region. The estimates from regression model showed that the street width (91.6%) is more effective than the height of the buildings (6.6%) in changing UHI max.
Building heating, air pollution and the use of inappropriate materials in the flooring streets (like asphalt streets due to dark colors in energy-absorption) are effective in phenomenon of urban heat islands that makes unfavorable environment for citizens. Paying attention to the urban surfaces like sidewalk, streets and rooftops has a great role in decreasing effect of this phenomenon. Due to growing urbanization and subsequently cities development, urban heat islands have taken a growing trend in big cities.
In general, the urban heat-island is a result of urbanity features, air pollution, human warmth, presence of impervious surfaces in the city, thermal properties of materials and geometry of urban areas. Heat island phenomenon is a result of many factors that are summarized below: (1) urban Geometry (morphometry) (2) thermal properties of materials which increase the sensible heat storage in the urban texture (3) released human heat as a result of fuel combustion and animal metabolism (4) urban greenhouse gases, leading to an increase in long wave radiation, atmospheric contamination and therefore warmer atmosphere (5) reduction of evaporation levels in cities, which means that energy will be released more as tangible rather than latent heat (6) reduction of turbulence and heat transfer through the streets.
This study aimed to simulate and calculate the maximum amount of heat island (UHI max) according to the conditions of urban geometry in the region of Kucheh bagh in Tabriz that is a pioneer study in Iran.
The study area is located in Kuche bagh region at the intersection of the streets of Ghods and Farvardin in the city of Tabriz.
The Oke’s numerical-theoretical equation was used for this study. First, the geometry of the target area using the radius of 15 meters from the axis of the road was divided into separate blocks. The ratio of street width (W) and height of buildings (H) was calculated in GIS software and at the end, the intensity of UHImax was calculated and simulated using Oke equation.
The urban geometry including building height and street width is calculated using Equation 1.
The theoretical- numerical basis of this equation shows that simulation of H/W ratio is an appropriate ways to describe urban geometry. Increasing the value of this ratio could lead to an increase in urban heat-island through modeling. This model has many advantages compared to other methods used to estimate the urban heat island. So, the selected parameter to calculate urban geometry and the model used to estimate the maximum intensity of heat island is the ratio of H / W and OKE model, respectively. In addition, the average height of buildings located within a radius of 15 meters and an average width of passages were calculated from the equation 2 and 3, respectively.
After calculating the geometry of the study area, the results showed that the blocks E, G and D in terms of height of the buildings have a heterogeneous distribution, but the distribution of blocks C, I and J is illustrative of their standard configuration. Although the blocks E, F and J in terms of street width are less diverse compared to other blocks, but in terms of height of buildings (8.6, 7 and 5 meters) have a different pattern that maximum values of their UHI are 8.3, 7.5 and 6.3 degrees, respectively. Three blocks B, H and I, in addition to their similarity according to street width and height of the buildings, in terms of the ratio of H / W and heat island intensity with the values of 9.6, 9.8 and 10.2 degrees are homogeneous.
It was also found that the greatest difference between the H / W ratio is related to block A (0.54) and block H (1.98); this difference has caused that greatest difference between the maximum intensity of UHI would calculated between the two blocks equal to 5.2 degree.
Misconfiguration causes that energy leaving from city surface deal with the problem due to narrow passages and high buildings. Therefore, consideration appropriate width of passages and streets and height of buildings are necessary to ease heat leaving and reduce intensity of UHI.
These simulations showed that high buildings and narrow streets intensify the heat islands. While in the presence of short buildings and wide streets, the UHI max is lowered. When the ratio H / W in the studied urban area is between 0.54 to 0.81, UHI max remains between 5 to 6.6 C˚, when this ratio increases to 1.01 to 1.98, UHI max will be between 7.5 and 10.2 C˚. The result also revealed that block A and H with 5 and 10.2 C˚ have the minimum and maximum value of UHI intensity, respectively. So can be concluded that block A and H have the most standard and non-standard urban configuration in the region. The estimates from regression model showed that the street width (91.6%) is more effective than the height of the buildings (6.6%) in changing UHI max.
Saeid Hamzeh, Zahra Farahani, Shahriar Mahdavi, Omid Chatrobgoun, Mehdi Gholamnia,
Volume 4, Issue 3 (9-2017)
Volume 4, Issue 3 (9-2017)
Abstract
As a result of climate change and reduction in rainfall during the last decade, drought has become big problem in the world, especially in arid and semi-arid areas such as Iran. Therefore drought monitoring and management is great of important. In contrast with the traditional methods which are based on the ground stations measurements and meteorological drought monitoring, using the remote sensing techniques and satellite imagery have become a useful tool for spatio-temporal monitoring of agricultural drought. But using of this technique and its results still need to be evaluated and calibrated for different areas.
The aim of this survey is to study the spatial and temporal patterns of drought using remote sensing and the regional meteorological data in the Markazi province. For this purpose, the MODIS satellite data between the years of 2000-2013 have been used to monitor and derived vegetation indices. Drought indices based on satellite data including the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), Temperature Condition Index (TCI), Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI), and Soil Water Index (SWI) were obtained from the MODIS satellite data for the period of study for different temporal scales (seasonal, biannual and annul).Then, correlation between obtained results from satellite data and standardized precipitation index (SPI) have been analyzed in all time periods.
Results show that study area has a low to medium vegetation cover. According to the results, the climate situation of the study area is more compatible with the seasonal results of the VCI, and VCI was selected as the best indicator for agricultural drought monitoring in the study are. The obtained results from the applying of VCI over the area show the drought condition in 2000 and 2008 and the wetness in 2009 and 2010 during the study period.
The aim of this survey is to study the spatial and temporal patterns of drought using remote sensing and the regional meteorological data in the Markazi province. For this purpose, the MODIS satellite data between the years of 2000-2013 have been used to monitor and derived vegetation indices. Drought indices based on satellite data including the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), Temperature Condition Index (TCI), Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI), and Soil Water Index (SWI) were obtained from the MODIS satellite data for the period of study for different temporal scales (seasonal, biannual and annul).Then, correlation between obtained results from satellite data and standardized precipitation index (SPI) have been analyzed in all time periods.
Results show that study area has a low to medium vegetation cover. According to the results, the climate situation of the study area is more compatible with the seasonal results of the VCI, and VCI was selected as the best indicator for agricultural drought monitoring in the study are. The obtained results from the applying of VCI over the area show the drought condition in 2000 and 2008 and the wetness in 2009 and 2010 during the study period.
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Volume 4, Issue 4 (1-2018)
Volume 4, Issue 4 (1-2018)
Abstract
The earthquake is a natural disaster that damages structure and lifeline and is simply inserted into human artifacts. For this reason the structures and lifeline, earthquake loads shall estimate and in order to provide its design.in Iran earthquake, risk of natural disasters is dominant. It should be noted that Iran in recent years, an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.5 Richter scale or more frequently experienced. Focus most historical and instrumental earthquake along the northern margin of two young belts (Kope-Dagh and Alborz Mountain) and south (Zagros Mountains to the northwest - southeast) is located. The relative risk of different regions in the 2800 earthquake building and Housing Research Center Indicate that is about 73 percent of the main lines of the rail network in the regions with high relative risk and especially the Zagros mountain areas are the greater risk of earthquake. Construction of railway lines between Esfahan and Ahvaz on stage in this research study that evaluated against earthquake risk path it has selected. The research study also Zagros mountain interval passes and bridges, tunnels and numerous curves.
Rail between the two cities Esfahan and Ahvaz is studied. In the years between 1050- 2011, more than 350 earthquakes occurred in the area, the biggest earthquake with a magnitude of 6.8 Richter scale in 1384 had the highest value. In this area there are 615 fault reverse fault Zagros Iran’s biggest fault zones perpendicular to that direction. Distinguishing feature of this exist geomorphologic unit including high Zagross (Lordegan - Brojen), Zagross folded (Baghmalek - Lordeghan) and Khuzestan plain (Ramhormoz - Ahvaz), in addition to different geological units covers. The beginning and end of the range in a wide range of railroad in Ahvaz not consolidate the young sedimentary soils passes, the diversity of geological formations in the Zagros that most of the sedimentary formations have been broken by numerous faults. Based seismic study in the south Zagros bar is located. In this study evaluated the risk period.
The data used in this study are planned rail route Esfahan – Ahvaz scale 1:250000 preparation of the Islamic republic of Iran railway research center, geological maps 1:100000 the geological survey Iran, satellite images IRS LISS III the armed forces geographical organization, historical and device earthquake data geological survey. Thus, in the first stages of investigation historical and device earthquake based on semivariogram model and Kriging interpolation method, historical and device earthquake zones calculated. Fault lines of, geological maps 1:100000 mining and were used; of aster the 30 meter resolution ,slope ,Curvature, Profile, elevation it was prepared; lineaments, rippling unit, land use and vegetation cover of satellite images IRS LISS III it was prepared. For the analysis of variable composition due to the lack of homogeneity in terms of scale, the need to unify them was based on the degree of membership. Then, based on Gaussian fuzzy membership function was adjusted. In this study, sure to select the correct of gamma, merging were the values0.7, 0.8, 0.9 and 0.95. Then, were evaluated by Statistical Zone and select suitable gamma.
Obtained seismic zones on the basis of semivariogram model and Kriging interpolation method showed that rail lines in three intervals smaller than 4 Richter scale earthquake is facing. Whereas earthquake greater than 4.5 Richter scale on quaternary alluvial deposits are located, in addition to its range with a maximum magnitude of earthquakes on faults and lineaments as well as difference corresponded to the sudden formation. The case study is Iran’s biggest fault zones and more than 350 earthquakes occurred the 1000 year that adaptation layers fault, earthquakes and also historical earthquakes, indicates active region in terms of earthquake. Using a combination of variables of overlapping functions vegetation cover density, land use, historical earthquakes,4-5 earthquakes, greater than 5 earthquakes, change height level layer, slope, Curvature, Profile, faults and lineaments and drainage density layers; the amount of risk in gamma0.8 earthquake was detected because the results showed that recent gamma have greatest difference between variables and classes risk. Zoning in 4 commodity risk respectively without risk, medium risk, high risk and very high risk classified and two long range and a short interval of railway on the scope of their compliance with the maximum risk.
The results show that in terms of topography, geology and system faults and joints related fractures there are tremendous diversity that diversity causes the damage of the earthquake differently. In other words proved to be highly destructive earthquake with magnitude of this range is different. Most gender diversity in both land and exposed the fault lines pass through the system, is one of the Shareza to Ardekan and other the Ramhormoz to Baghmalek. So magnitude earthquake in rail track will be a lot of changes. The beginning and end of the rail passes of new alluvial sediments lands due to being detached and empty spaces, the near Esfahan and Ahvaz areas are involved in the escalation vulnerability. Deposits range in the vicinity Gandoman and of wheat rail lines Izeh the screw with range of motion will face intensified by the earthquake. There convex reflects of Dizajan to Izeh intensification of earthquake in vulnerable parts of the range. Seismic records of more than 5 Richter scale and shallow depth because of lack of data has little effect the result of risk that need to be considered as evidence of potential risk.
Rail between the two cities Esfahan and Ahvaz is studied. In the years between 1050- 2011, more than 350 earthquakes occurred in the area, the biggest earthquake with a magnitude of 6.8 Richter scale in 1384 had the highest value. In this area there are 615 fault reverse fault Zagros Iran’s biggest fault zones perpendicular to that direction. Distinguishing feature of this exist geomorphologic unit including high Zagross (Lordegan - Brojen), Zagross folded (Baghmalek - Lordeghan) and Khuzestan plain (Ramhormoz - Ahvaz), in addition to different geological units covers. The beginning and end of the range in a wide range of railroad in Ahvaz not consolidate the young sedimentary soils passes, the diversity of geological formations in the Zagros that most of the sedimentary formations have been broken by numerous faults. Based seismic study in the south Zagros bar is located. In this study evaluated the risk period.
The data used in this study are planned rail route Esfahan – Ahvaz scale 1:250000 preparation of the Islamic republic of Iran railway research center, geological maps 1:100000 the geological survey Iran, satellite images IRS LISS III the armed forces geographical organization, historical and device earthquake data geological survey. Thus, in the first stages of investigation historical and device earthquake based on semivariogram model and Kriging interpolation method, historical and device earthquake zones calculated. Fault lines of, geological maps 1:100000 mining and were used; of aster the 30 meter resolution ,slope ,Curvature, Profile, elevation it was prepared; lineaments, rippling unit, land use and vegetation cover of satellite images IRS LISS III it was prepared. For the analysis of variable composition due to the lack of homogeneity in terms of scale, the need to unify them was based on the degree of membership. Then, based on Gaussian fuzzy membership function was adjusted. In this study, sure to select the correct of gamma, merging were the values0.7, 0.8, 0.9 and 0.95. Then, were evaluated by Statistical Zone and select suitable gamma.
Obtained seismic zones on the basis of semivariogram model and Kriging interpolation method showed that rail lines in three intervals smaller than 4 Richter scale earthquake is facing. Whereas earthquake greater than 4.5 Richter scale on quaternary alluvial deposits are located, in addition to its range with a maximum magnitude of earthquakes on faults and lineaments as well as difference corresponded to the sudden formation. The case study is Iran’s biggest fault zones and more than 350 earthquakes occurred the 1000 year that adaptation layers fault, earthquakes and also historical earthquakes, indicates active region in terms of earthquake. Using a combination of variables of overlapping functions vegetation cover density, land use, historical earthquakes,4-5 earthquakes, greater than 5 earthquakes, change height level layer, slope, Curvature, Profile, faults and lineaments and drainage density layers; the amount of risk in gamma0.8 earthquake was detected because the results showed that recent gamma have greatest difference between variables and classes risk. Zoning in 4 commodity risk respectively without risk, medium risk, high risk and very high risk classified and two long range and a short interval of railway on the scope of their compliance with the maximum risk.
The results show that in terms of topography, geology and system faults and joints related fractures there are tremendous diversity that diversity causes the damage of the earthquake differently. In other words proved to be highly destructive earthquake with magnitude of this range is different. Most gender diversity in both land and exposed the fault lines pass through the system, is one of the Shareza to Ardekan and other the Ramhormoz to Baghmalek. So magnitude earthquake in rail track will be a lot of changes. The beginning and end of the rail passes of new alluvial sediments lands due to being detached and empty spaces, the near Esfahan and Ahvaz areas are involved in the escalation vulnerability. Deposits range in the vicinity Gandoman and of wheat rail lines Izeh the screw with range of motion will face intensified by the earthquake. There convex reflects of Dizajan to Izeh intensification of earthquake in vulnerable parts of the range. Seismic records of more than 5 Richter scale and shallow depth because of lack of data has little effect the result of risk that need to be considered as evidence of potential risk.
Dr Parvin Zarei, Dr Ali Talebi, Dr Mahmoud Alaei Taleghani,
Volume 4, Issue 4 (1-2018)
Volume 4, Issue 4 (1-2018)
Abstract
Landslides are considered as natural disasters that lead to many deaths and severe property damages worldwide. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate the effective factors in order to make urgent planning and to present management solutions for the sensitive regions. Massive movement of materials, such as a landslide, is one of the problematic hillslope processes in Javanrood located in the northwest of folded Zagros, for this phenomenon leads to demolition of forest lands, farms, and pastures of the region. Moreover, it is considered as a threat for road traffic. The present study aims slope stability analyses and landslide hazard zonation applying the process-based model (Sinmap).
This research was done by both field and experimental methods. Research steps are summarized as following.
Geomorphologic, hydrologic and soil mechanic characteristics of slopes in the considered zone were the required information in this study. To obtain this information, at first, it was necessary to recognize sample slopes to measure the above- mentioned variables. Therefore, first of all, landslides distribution map was prepared in the considered area then, on this basin, sample slopes were selected to measure essential variables. Sample hillslopes were recognized as 12 hillslopes, 5 stable (lack of land sliding) and 7 unstable hillslopes (having land sliding mass). They were 1- 12 numbers. 1-5 hillslopes are stable and 6-12 unstable. After selecting sample hillslopes, necessary parameters were assessed as following:
Mechanical features of soil: soil sampling from each hillslope was done the mechanical features of soil, so 50 kg soil was removed from each slope, from 75 cm to 1cm depth. In order to sampling soft and coarse soils, a core cuter devise and shovel were used, respectively. Sampled soils were transferred to Kermanshah soil mechanic laboratory, Kermanshah provincial transport office and necessary parameters, including dry soil specific weight(γ d), wet soil specific weight (γt), hydraulic conductivity , soil internal friction angle(φ) ,soil cohesion , and soil porosity were determined by using direct shear test.
Determining the geometric parameters of slopes: except for using topography map, altitude numerical model (Dem) with a pixel size of 20 by 20 m and satellite images were used to determine morphology parameters and to identify various hillslope types. Applying GIS software, manual and laser tape measure, clinometer, slope geometry characteristics such as mean slope (beta), slope width (W), slope length (L) area, were extracted.
Model implementation
The model used in this study was Talebi (2008) model which was, in fact, an extended model of process-oriented (physically based) model, being a combination of geometry model, hydrology model (permanent condition) and infinite slope stability theory. After obtaining necessary parameters to get slope factor of security (F S) including laboratory, topography and hydrology parameters, Fs values for each slope were measured by Matlab software
Unstable slopes of the region mainly have the stability coefficient less than 1 which is classified as very high vulnerable class. They have low inner friction angle, less than 29 degrees, based on geo-mechanic properties of soil. Moreover, their gradient angle is more than 35 percent. In term of shape, most of them have concave profile curvature and convergent plan which lead to slower drainage, the increase of relative saturation saving of the soil, and the decrease of stability. The results of the landslide hazard zonation mapping indicate that the majority of the study area located in protection class includes 26 percent of the study area. The lowest percentage of study area belonging to middle stability and quasi-stable classes which constitute 9.2 and 6.2 precent of the study area respectively.
According to landslide hazard zonation applying the process-based model (Sinmap), it can be included that percentage of stability is less than percentage of instability in Javarood region. So that the highest percentage of area is located in the protective class (26 %) and high threshold of instability (15.9 %) and a lower percentage of the region is located as stable and quasi-stable (20 %).This results indicates that the susceptibility of the scope of the study area in terms of inherent instability. So that natural factors (concave longitudinal profile and low friction, high angle of slope and high saturation coefficient) in these areas will certainly cause the landslide phenomenon. Therefore, this hillslopes will unstable under the influence of human activities such as leveling hillslope for the construction of residential or their road cutting.
, , , ,
Volume 4, Issue 4 (1-2018)
Volume 4, Issue 4 (1-2018)
Abstract
Farmers in developing countries are among the most vulnerable to climate change effects, particularly drought. Drought is a serious and dangerous phenomenon in most part of the world particularly arid and semi aired region such as Iran and it is estimated that Middle East is expected to be particularly badly affected with a decline in precipitation of at least 40mm over the coming century. In Sum, drought is a recurring climatic event that can happen in all parts of the world. In terms of people affected, it is the number one risk of all natural hazards, with more than 1 billion people affected in the last decade. In fact, drought is considered as a disaster, causing heavy costs for farmers' livelihoods and agricultural systems. Therefore, most of the drought effects are in societies where agriculture is a major component of their economic activity. As such, the livelihoods of farmers that are among vulnerable communities is strongly affected. In other words, at the global scale, agriculture is by far the most important user of water and, as pressure on water resources increases, the need for new approaches to managing those resources is becoming more pressing. However strong evidences confirmed that farmers can actively response to drought and manage and reduce it effects. As such promoting farmers to actively response to drought is very urgent and necessary. First step to this policy is understanding farmers’ current situation and their intention and behaviour. In fact, understanding farmers’ perception toward drought is a key to preparing to reduce the effects of it. In other words, drought management relies heavily on farmers understanding how to reduce their water consumption and on applying their understanding to everyday activities so that they consume sustainably. Furthermore, attitudes of farmers toward drought and drought management are closely linked with their behavioral management and experience with past events (Yazdanpanah et al., 2013). Hence, attitude and past experience can affect the assessment of coping strategies in the future, which is especially important from a preventive action point of view (see Krömker and Mosler 2002). Therefore, a deep and proper understanding of the factors that determine adaptation with the new conditions is very much needed. As such, the aim of this study is to investigating farmers’ intention and behaviour toward drought management. Among other dimensions it is assumed that psychological issues play an important role in predicting farmers’ intentions and actual responses, however, little research has focused on the psychological mechanisms that facilitate or constrain drought adaptation behavior. In this context, a study was carried out to identify the most prominent drivers of, and impediments to, drought adaptation, using health belief model. The Health Belief Model is an expectancy value model. According to this theory, an individual’s behavior is a utility of the probability of consequences accompanying with that behavior and the probable value or evaluation of those consequences. The overall desirability of the behavior is based on the summed products of the expectancy and value of consequences. Theory claims that health decisions are based on two major components. These are perception of threats and behavioral evaluation, which, in turn, is divided into four psychosocial sub-components (beliefs) the “threat perception” refers to a supposed vulnerability to a disease and estimated costs of this disease, while “behavioral evaluation” refers to benefits and barriers for adopting own behavior. Also based on these four beliefs, the HBM comprises other additional cognitive or motivational components to change or predict behavior, such as “cue to action” and “health motivation” or “general concern”. These components refer to the cause of health behavior, which, in turn, impacts the level of worry about health problems. Furthermore, Becker and Rosenstock (1987) added “perceived self-efficacy” as a perceived behavior control component to the HBM. While perceived self-efficacy originates from the social cognitive theory and refers to the degree, to which following a particular pattern of behavior is imaginable or unmanageable for the person and can enhance the predicted power of the model. The Health Belief Model was quantitatively tested using the survey methodology to understand farmers’ intention and behaviour. An in-depth literature review was used to develop the questionnaire to collect data for this study. Data were collected through personal interviews based on a structured questionnaire. The questionnaire was structured to assess the central components of the Health Belief Model. The questionnaire was used for a face-to-face survey with farmers. Answering time for the questionnaire was about 15-20 min. Researchers received all completed questionnaires directly after the survey; no intermediaries were involved into the analysis or interpretation of results. The questions were scored on a 1-5 point scale (very low, low, moderate, high, very high) to reduce the statistical problem of extreme skewness. Based on Ajzen's (1985) recommendations, scales containing multiple items were developed to measure each of the psycho-social variables. It is important to note that for assessed Health Belief Model variables we used items that closely follow the measurement of this constructs used in past studies. The statistical population of this study was the farmers of Dehloran city, located in the villages of Anaran, Seyyed Ebrahim, Seyyed Naseroddin, Abu Ghavir, Dasht-e-Abbas, Nahr Anbar. In order to determine the volume of the sample, the Kargets and Morgan tables (1970) were used. According to the size of the population (farmers in Dehloran city), the sample size was 320. In this study, a randomized cluster sampling method with proportional allocation was used. The reliability of the main scales of the questionnaires’ was examined by Cronbach Alpha coefficients, which ranged from 0.65 to 0.84, indicating the tool of study is reliable. A multiple step-wise regression analysis, with intention regarding response to drought as the variable, and with Health Belief Model variables as the framework, the results revealed that general beliefs, self-efficacy and perceived benefits are significant predictors. These three variables predicted 54% of the variance in intention regarding response to drought. Same regression was carried out so to determine factors that can predict farmers’ behaviour regarding drought management. The results revealed that intention, perceived severity, perceived vulnerability and perceived benefits are significant predictors of behaviour. These variables predicted 21% of the variance farmers’ behaviour toward drought management.
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Volume 4, Issue 4 (1-2018)
Volume 4, Issue 4 (1-2018)
Abstract
Dust is one of the common processes of arid and semiarid regions that its occurrence frequencies has increased in recent years in Iran. The proper identification of sand and dust storms (SDS) is particular importance due to its impact on the environment and human health. So far, several methods for identifying these sources have been proposed such as methods based on field studies and geomorphologic studies, as well as methods on the basis of a numerical model of air flow simulation. Therefore, identifying the process of land cover changes and changes in suspended particles in the air can help to identify the correct sources of sand and dust. Also, to manage the reduction of dust, it will be very useful to analyze the trend of changes in sand and dust sources. This data can provide some useful information to the decision makers about the future occurrence of sand and dust storm and control it. Satellite-based remote sensing is an appropriate tool for examining changes in the surface conditions of the earth over time. Satellite sensors are well suited for this purpose because of the fact that constant measurements can be repeated on a fix spatial scale. Therefore, in this research, we have tried to test different remotely sensed data time series for validation of the identified SDS sources using the latest remote sensing techniques and their integration with other information.
The aim of this study is to validate the identified dust generation sources in Alborz province using time series of satellite data and meteorological stations data. In first step, OLI data of Landsat 8 during the years 2013 through 2015 were used to make maps of vegetation cover, soil moisture and land cover sensibility to wind erosion. These maps were combined with geology and roughness indices by multi-criteria evaluation method to obtain a map of sand & dust source potential areas. Also, based on the location of the intersection of the air flow with the surface of the earth and the application of masks of non-wind erodible areas on them, probable sand and dust sources were identified. These regions were integrated with the map of sand & dust source potential areas using the MCE method (WLC) and based on a stratified random sampling plan, susceptible sites of sand & dust sources were identified. Then in this research, the time series of satellite data and weather stations data were used and the trend of vegetation, soil moisture and surface temperature at the location of identified areas during a 15-year period were monitored. Product of LPRM_TMI_DY_SOILM3 from TMI sensor, data of 16-day vegetation, 8-day land surface temperature and data of aerosol optical depth from MODIS sensor were received. Also ground- based data of dust from synoptic and air pollution monitoring stations were received. Changes Trend analysis of soil moisture, temperature and vegetation cover was done during the period. Also aerosol optical depth in dust events with high concentration was evaluated for possible sources. In addition, the areas with higher dust optical depth than other areas were identified during the period. Finally, identified sources was validated using ground- based data of dust.
The result of trend analysis showed a significant decrease in vegetation, soil moisture and land surface temperature at the place of possible dust sources during the studied period. Decreasing temperature in the southern part of Alborz Province and west of Tehran province was associated with higher frequency of dust in the area that shows why dust events has high frequency. Study of time series of aerosol optical depth data showed that concentration of dust is at or near the detected sources and the high concentration in this area is indicating identified areas are accurate. Checking optical depth in the event of high concentration and checking concurrent of air direction showed the detected sources has been correctly identified. Also Integration of dust information of synoptic and air pollution monitoring stations with the wind direction confirmed the high accuracy of identified dust sources.
Overall, findings showed the ability time series of remote sensing data to validate dust storm sources. The results of the analysis of the time series of the satellite remote sensing data showed that the surface temperature as an important climatic parameter can be well used in the identification and validation of sand & dust sources. Based on the results of this analysis in areas where the frequency of sand & dust storm events is high, there is a significant decrease in the surface temperature. This is particularly evident in the annual maximum surface temperature in the southwestern part of Iran, an area that is considered to be the predominant trajectory of sand & dust storm.
The aim of this study is to validate the identified dust generation sources in Alborz province using time series of satellite data and meteorological stations data. In first step, OLI data of Landsat 8 during the years 2013 through 2015 were used to make maps of vegetation cover, soil moisture and land cover sensibility to wind erosion. These maps were combined with geology and roughness indices by multi-criteria evaluation method to obtain a map of sand & dust source potential areas. Also, based on the location of the intersection of the air flow with the surface of the earth and the application of masks of non-wind erodible areas on them, probable sand and dust sources were identified. These regions were integrated with the map of sand & dust source potential areas using the MCE method (WLC) and based on a stratified random sampling plan, susceptible sites of sand & dust sources were identified. Then in this research, the time series of satellite data and weather stations data were used and the trend of vegetation, soil moisture and surface temperature at the location of identified areas during a 15-year period were monitored. Product of LPRM_TMI_DY_SOILM3 from TMI sensor, data of 16-day vegetation, 8-day land surface temperature and data of aerosol optical depth from MODIS sensor were received. Also ground- based data of dust from synoptic and air pollution monitoring stations were received. Changes Trend analysis of soil moisture, temperature and vegetation cover was done during the period. Also aerosol optical depth in dust events with high concentration was evaluated for possible sources. In addition, the areas with higher dust optical depth than other areas were identified during the period. Finally, identified sources was validated using ground- based data of dust.
The result of trend analysis showed a significant decrease in vegetation, soil moisture and land surface temperature at the place of possible dust sources during the studied period. Decreasing temperature in the southern part of Alborz Province and west of Tehran province was associated with higher frequency of dust in the area that shows why dust events has high frequency. Study of time series of aerosol optical depth data showed that concentration of dust is at or near the detected sources and the high concentration in this area is indicating identified areas are accurate. Checking optical depth in the event of high concentration and checking concurrent of air direction showed the detected sources has been correctly identified. Also Integration of dust information of synoptic and air pollution monitoring stations with the wind direction confirmed the high accuracy of identified dust sources.
Overall, findings showed the ability time series of remote sensing data to validate dust storm sources. The results of the analysis of the time series of the satellite remote sensing data showed that the surface temperature as an important climatic parameter can be well used in the identification and validation of sand & dust sources. Based on the results of this analysis in areas where the frequency of sand & dust storm events is high, there is a significant decrease in the surface temperature. This is particularly evident in the annual maximum surface temperature in the southwestern part of Iran, an area that is considered to be the predominant trajectory of sand & dust storm.
Dr Bromand Salahi, Dr Majid Rezaei Banafsheh Daragh, Dr Abdolreza Vaezi, Mr Mojtaba Faridpour,
Volume 4, Issue 4 (1-2018)
Volume 4, Issue 4 (1-2018)
Abstract
Drought is a natural occurrence that occurs repeatedly or alternately and is likely to occur in almost every kind of climatic event. Also, the distinction between this phenomenon and other natural disasters is that unlike other disasters, this phenomenon gradually over a relatively long period of time to act and its effects may be delayed after a few years and more than any other natural disaster appears. Several indicators have been presented to decide the characteristics of hydrological and meteorological drought. These indicators are generally based on one or more climatic elements. The SPI and SWI indicators are similar in terms of ease in calculations and results, and use monthly precipitation data and monthly spatial data rates. The simultaneous effect of meteorological droughts on groundwater levels rarely happens. Therefore, the present study investigates the effect of meteorological droughts on the groundwater level of Marand plain and calculates the time delay of drought on groundwater level.
The study area in this study is Marand Plain in East Azarbaijan Province. In this research, we used meteorological data (average monthly rainfall) of 7 rain gauge stations during the statistical period (1980-2012), and the monthly water level data of 23 piezometric wells during the statistical period (2001-2011). The correlation between stations and piezometric wells and linear regression method was used to reconstruct the statistical defects, then SPI and SWI indices were used to study the rainfall and groundwater changes process and the analysis of drought conditions in the meteorological and underground watersheds. The SPI index is basically calculated for periods of 3, 6, 9, 12, 18, 24, and 48 months. Also, the standardized water level indicator (SWI) has been used as a criterion for assessing occur drought and wet years in the Marand plain. The purpose of the SWI index is to allow zoning of groundwater level fluctuations at the study area. Extraction of drought and wet year intensities in different scales and basin zonation for drought maps in Marand plain was first calculated by entering the monthly values in DIP software, SPI values for 12-month time series. SWI values were calculated from monthly data of piezometric stationary level surfaces, such as SPI values, with the help of DIP, Minitab and Excel software. Geostatistical Analyst was also used to decide the weather drought and groundwater drought periods for the ArcGIS software.
The results of the SPI values showed that meteorological drought is not of a definite local place, while groundwater droughts have not occurred randomly in the area and its concentration in the west of the aquifer is more than the east. Considering the increase in the area under cultivation, to compensate for the water needs of agricultural lands, an increase in the harvesting of underground water table has occurred in order to compensate for the need for water, indicating a tangible relationship between the rainfall and the level fluctuation in the Marand plain. Therefore, considering the increase in the area under cultivation during the years of drought in the region, the best correlation between them was -0.720 with a delay of 5 months, in order to investigate the effects of drought on the surface of the station, which was significant at 1% level It illustrates the impact of groundwater resources with a 5-month delay. Also, the results of the survey of monthly data of Marand plain surface during the statistical period (2001-2011) showed that the groundwater level of the plain had a negative trend that fell by about 2 meters.
The SPI and SWI indices make it possible to calculate the start and end times of meteorological and groundwater droughts in a steady period of information computed by these indicators, as well as the severity, duration and frequency of droughts. Drought zoning maps using SPI and SWI values in the Arc Gis environment showed that meteorological droughts, due to the characteristics of droughts, do not have a definite spatial location, while droughts Underground water does not occur accidentally in the area and their concentration has been created at specific points in the aquifer, which have tropical and human stresses (in terms of excessive and permissible withdrawal). Although the weather factor has had the greatest impact on the level of stagnation in the Marand Plain in recent years, this crisis is the result of a set of factors, including free radicals, which is itself due to meteorological droughts; therefore, due to the trend of change The level of the stand is consistent with drought changes, it can be concluded that the drop in the surface of the Marand Plain is mainly affected by drought. According to the results of this study, it seems that continuous monitoring of drought situation and strong monitoring of harvesting, especially in severe and prolonged droughts, is very necessary to prevent a significant drop in groundwater level in the Marand plain
Marzieh Taabe, Abolfazl Ranjbarfordoei, Sayed Hojat Mousavi, Mohammad Khosroshahi,
Volume 4, Issue 4 (1-2018)
Volume 4, Issue 4 (1-2018)
Abstract
The correct management in natural ecosystems is not possible without knowledge of the health in its sectors. Vegetation is the most significant sector in ecosystem that has important role in its health. Resilience is one of the defining features of health vegetation The term resilience was first introduced in the study of ecological systems and demonstrates the ability of the ecosystem to maintain its performance in the face of environmental disorders. A resilience-based system is not only equipped with a disorder adjustment mechanism but also has the potential to benefit from changes in a way that lead to creating an opportunity for development, innovation, and updating. Therefore, when a change occurs, the resilience provides the needed conditions for restarting and reorganization. If this goes beyond disturbing forces, the system will have the power to return to the maximum vegetation density with the least erosion effects, otherwise the system will be vulnerable to the change that was created and could already be controlled.
This research was done in part of North east of South Khorasan province (arid climate) with the aim of quantifying vegetative resilience on behalf of ecosystem health in response to drought occurrences and long-term precipitation changes, as environmental disturbances. Therefore first, using daily precipitation data from 15 meteorological stations around the study area, their annual precipitation was extracted and was standardized by Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) over the course of thirty years (1986 - 2015). Then, the SPI index data in 15 stations were interpolated by ArcGIS software based on Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) method and dry, wet and normal years was estimated in the study region for each year. On the other hand, from archive of satellite images of Landsat 5 and Landsat 7, an image was created for each year in study period, between 15 June and 15 July, with permanent coverage at the best of growth. Following the necessary corrections for satellite images, the average Transformed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (TNDVI) was obtained of each image by ENVI software. Finally, effected of precipitation changes on mean TNDVI was assessed and vegetation resilience was stabilized whit selected of sever time period samples based on four effective parameters (Amplitude, Malleability, Damping and Hysteresis).
Comparison of annual precipitation variations in the thirty-year time series (1986 -2015) indicated two approximate wet and dry periods in study area. The wet period is related to the first fourteen years of the time series (1986-1999) and the dry period is related to the last sixteen years (2000-2015). In this term, severe precipitation incidents with different intensities were occurred in the study area including one case of very intense precipitation (1986), one case of intense precipitation (1991) and two cases of moderate precipitation (1996 and 1992). Also, four drought incidents were occurred including one case of intense drought (2001) and three cases of moderate drought (1987, 2006 and 2008). All precipitations (wet years) are related to the first half and most droughts are related to the second half of the studied period. In this study for fixing of vegetation resilience in study area and for calculating of its parameters, In addition to the thirty-year time series selected sever time sections. in the whole study series (1986 - 2015), maximum of mean TNDVI (49.37 %) was in 1986 (reference), the lowest mean TNDVI (43.58%) was in 2010, The year effect of the decrease precipitation and drought, and mean TNDVI in 2015 was 44.28 %. Amount of parameters amplitude, malleability and damping are respectively 5.79, 0.7 and 5.09, and hysteresis was zero (%). The result of this case showed that the vegetation has moved towards the reference state (Resilience) but has not reached to amount of reference vegetation. The most specific cases for vegetation resilience happened from 1986 to 1996 (wet period) and 2003- 2009 time sector (dry period). In the first time section amount of amplitude and malleability were 0.64 %, damping was zero and hysteresis was 0.25%. The result of this case showed that not only the vegetation was returned to the reference state but also was increased to the reference (Cross reference).So despite the reduced rainfall and occurrence of sever occurrences of drought in dry period, hysteresis parameter (0.05 %) observed in 2003- 2009 time sector too that confirmed clearly vegetation health in study area whit dry climate.
Awareness of the health status of the vegetation and its response to long-term precipitation changes and environmental disorders, such as drought occurrence, ensure the success of the managerial plans for renewable natural resources. The present study is the second study on quantifying the vegetation resilience and the first study under dry climatic conditions in Asia (an average annual precipitation of 160 mm) conducted in Iran by calculating four factors related to resilience, and is the first study that has presented the factor hysteresis in the calculations. Despite continuous of difficult condition, the native vegetation of the study area has been able to return the reference state not only by resolving the disorder relatively, but also it has experienced hysteresis stage. A set of quantitative calculations showed despite reduced annual precipitation and drought events, vegetation has been able to maintain its resilience, which indicates the health of the vegetation in the studied ecosystem. With the presence of such amazing protective and consistent mechanisms in the vegetation of arid regions, it is possible to maintain and restore these regions by proper managerial plans.
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