Search published articles
Gholamreza Mohamadi, Dr Reza Borna, Dr Farideh Asadian,
Volume 7, Issue 3 (11-2020)
Volume 7, Issue 3 (11-2020)
Abstract
In the present study, the spatial-temporal analysis of the Arctic vortex and its role in the occurrence of heavy precipitation days in the Ghare-Su basin have been investigated. For this purpose, firstly, with the 95% percentile method, heavy precipitation days of the basin were extracted. Then, considering the pervasiveness condition, 79 days of heavy and pervasive precipitation days determined during the1979–2015. In the following considering the contour representative of the polar vortex in the geopotential height of 500 hPa maps, elevation maps of 500 hPa, the vortex position identified on each of the heavy precipitation days based on its maximum extent on the synoptic zone. Synoptic analysis of the temporal and spatial of Arctic vortex during the selection of heavy and pervasive precipitation days shows that the 4 patterns can be identified within 79 days of heavy precipitation days. The position and concentration of the vortex patterns in each season have changed. So that the least penetration of the vortex is seen during the autumn and the most penetration in the winter. In all cases of the days of heavy and pervasive precipitation due to the locating the trough of the arctic vortex over the study region, which coincides with the settlement of the huge Rex and Omega blockings on Europe. The highest correlation between the latitude of the vortex and the precipitation intensity is seen in the third pattern ( the Red Sea to the west of the Persian Gulf), which has the most vortex penetration in the region. In each of the vortex spatial locations, the location, length, and depth of the trough have also changed in each location. So that the best position and the most impact of vortex occurred in the third and fourth patterns where the troughs from vortex have the most depth and extension on adjacent water resources.
Farhad Azizpour, Vahid Riahi, Somayeh Azizi,
Volume 7, Issue 4 (2-2021)
Volume 7, Issue 4 (2-2021)
Abstract
Abstract
As information about disease and mortality grows, so do appropriate methods for analyzing this type of data that meet different needs. One of these methods is spatial analysis of the disease, which considers its geographical distribution along with other risk factors. The present study is an attempt to depict the spatial pattern of coronary heart disease distribution in rural settlements of Damavand and to explain the factors affecting the spatial distribution of this disease in the study area. Spatial analysis of corona prevalence using spatial statistics analysis methods can extract and analyze the spatial patterns governing the geographical distribution of this disease. For this purpose, the present study seeks to answer the following questions:
As information about disease and mortality grows, so do appropriate methods for analyzing this type of data that meet different needs. One of these methods is spatial analysis of the disease, which considers its geographical distribution along with other risk factors. The present study is an attempt to depict the spatial pattern of coronary heart disease distribution in rural settlements of Damavand and to explain the factors affecting the spatial distribution of this disease in the study area. Spatial analysis of corona prevalence using spatial statistics analysis methods can extract and analyze the spatial patterns governing the geographical distribution of this disease. For this purpose, the present study seeks to answer the following questions:
- What pattern does the spatial distribution of coronary heart disease in the rural area of Damavand city follow?
- What factors have influenced this spatial distribution pattern?
Due to the nature of the subject, the present study is of the combined type and in terms of applied results. The method of data collection is based on documentary-library and survey-field data. Initially, the statistics of the number of patients with coronary artery from the beginning of April 2020 to the end of July 2020 were collected by referring to Damavand health center. Then spatial analysis is applied to them. In order to study the spatial pattern of corona disease distribution and to recognize its non-random structure from various statistical indicators such as mean, percentage, hot spot analysis and also to properly understand the pattern of hot spot clusters by measuring directional geographical distribution (standard ellipse) in GIS software environment. Used. After describing the structure and pattern of dispersions, one should look for the cause and reasons of dispersions. Thus, in field surveys, after determining the number of patients with coronary artery disease, snowball interviews were conducted with 23 residents of Damavand city in order to identify and analyze the factors affecting the spatial distribution pattern of coronary heart disease in this city. After conducting the interviews and collecting the data, in order to analyze them, the underlying theory in the Maxiquida software environment was used. Pearson correlation coefficient was used to determine the relationship between the factors affecting the prevalence of the disease in the study area as independent variables with coronary heart disease as a dependent variable in SPSS environment. Then, Moran's spatial autocorrelation analysis model was used to know the type of distribution pattern of the identified factors.
This part of the findings is divided into two parts according to the questions raised in the research: Spatial distribution pattern of coronary heart disease in rural areas of Damavand city Out of a total of 67 villages, 21 rural points (31.34%) and 1 rural point (1.49%), respectively, have the lowest and highest number of patients with coronary heart disease. Based on the analysis of clusters of hot spots and elliptical curve of geographical distribution, most hot spots are located in the west and northwest of the city and the villages located in these spots with low health centers have almost high population density that are adjacent to each other and They are close to the cities and on the main road. Most of the cold spots are located in the east and southeast of the region.
Factors affecting the distribution pattern of coronary heart disease in rural areas of Damavand city After determining the spatial pattern of corona disease distribution in the rural area of Damavand city, the effective factors in the spatial distribution pattern of this disease should be identified and analyzed. These factors include: Weak official information on coronary heart disease; Weak local community attention to the principles of health exposure to corona risk; Simplifying the risk of coronary heart disease; Short geographical distance between settlements; High level of inter-residential interactions; Weakness in providing health services. Pearson correlation coefficient was used to determine the relationship between the factors affecting the prevalence of the disease in the study area as independent variables with coronary heart disease as a dependent
This part of the findings is divided into two parts according to the questions raised in the research: Spatial distribution pattern of coronary heart disease in rural areas of Damavand city Out of a total of 67 villages, 21 rural points (31.34%) and 1 rural point (1.49%), respectively, have the lowest and highest number of patients with coronary heart disease. Based on the analysis of clusters of hot spots and elliptical curve of geographical distribution, most hot spots are located in the west and northwest of the city and the villages located in these spots with low health centers have almost high population density that are adjacent to each other and They are close to the cities and on the main road. Most of the cold spots are located in the east and southeast of the region.
Factors affecting the distribution pattern of coronary heart disease in rural areas of Damavand city After determining the spatial pattern of corona disease distribution in the rural area of Damavand city, the effective factors in the spatial distribution pattern of this disease should be identified and analyzed. These factors include: Weak official information on coronary heart disease; Weak local community attention to the principles of health exposure to corona risk; Simplifying the risk of coronary heart disease; Short geographical distance between settlements; High level of inter-residential interactions; Weakness in providing health services. Pearson correlation coefficient was used to determine the relationship between the factors affecting the prevalence of the disease in the study area as independent variables with coronary heart disease as a dependent
Abbas Saidi, Bijan Rahmani, Rasol Ghaffari Rad,
Volume 7, Issue 4 (2-2021)
Volume 7, Issue 4 (2-2021)
Abstract
Abstract:
Spatial planning as an alternative approach to sustainable development in geographical knowledge is based on a proper and appropriate understanding of space as a systematic phenomenon that has a fundamental role in guiding society towards the principles of sustainable development such that social and economic development and Improving the quality of life of each region depends on its spatial planning system.
The construction of dams is considered to be an interventionist measure in the environmental system, which may lead to positive or negative impacts. While these impacts can be recognized directly in all elements and phenomena that are related to the geographical space, they play an important role in the process of spatial development and "production of space". This article questions to what extent the construction of the Alavian dam affects the integrated spatial reorganization of rural settlements.
To investigate this, the Alavian reservoir dam in East Azarbaijan province (Iran) has been selected as a case study. The construction of the dam and the Alavian drainage network in the Maragheh and Bonab areas began in 1990 and ended in 1995 aiming to provide drinking, agricultural and industrial water as well as flood control. We hypothesized that the implementation of this project has caused a wide change in the structural and functional status of the spatial system as well as the changes in the environmental, socio-cultural and economy of the human settlements located at the margin of the reservoir. We studied such structural/functional changes in the spatial system of the Alavian dam and its irrigation network. It is presumed that "the role of the construction and Utilization of the dam and irrigation networks" has a great impact on "developments of the spatial system of rural settlements", mostly in social, economic and environmental.
In summary, we offer the following hypotheses:
All data (quantitative and qualitative) required for this research were collected using two methods of library studies and field survey and then analyzed. Data collection tools, including village and household questionnaires, interviews, focus group meetings, observation and field surveys, were collected through all data collection tools. The general questionnaire for all villages (27 villages) was completed in full format. The household size of the samples was calculated using a Cochran method with a confidence level of 95 percent for all 370 households. The household questionnaire was randomly filled out. The questionnaire of villages and households was completed according to the impact of the construction of the Alavian reservoir Dam separately and with a proportional distribution in the upstream and downstream villages.
To analyze the data, normality, correlation, Kruskal-Wallis, Mann-Whitney U and Kendall coefficient were performed using SPSS software.
This study presented an innovative way to evaluate the effects of construction of the dam and irrigation network on the variation of the spatial system of rural settlements in an integrated manner based on spatial paradigm. The findings of this research are the result of collaborative fieldwork to describe the relationship between dam construction and irrigation network and changes in the spatial system of villages. Spatial planning as a new, comprehensive and systematic approach to geographic knowledge can well support the theory of sustainable development. This approach is based on the harmonious and balanced development of the environmental-ecological, socio-cultural, economic and physical conditions of the spatial system.
To sum up, it can be said that observation of the spatial organization of the areas affected by the implementation of the dam and the Alavian irrigation network, as a result of uncompetitive development policies, is indicative of the imbalance and inequality in access to opportunities (such as access to agricultural water, increased agricultural production, increased income, etc.). Accordingly, due to lack of a Integrated and systematic approach based on the principles of spatial planning in the study and implementation of the Alavian Reservoir Dam, is not possible the conditions for positive change in rural settlements. It actually causes disarray, disunity and imbalance of the spatial system of the regions. In other words, is one of the most important reasons for failure of development projects in third world countries, ignoring the dimensions and structural-functional aspects of spatial systems. The project of construction of Alavian reservoir dam and its irrigation network can be a good example of such projects.
Spatial planning as an alternative approach to sustainable development in geographical knowledge is based on a proper and appropriate understanding of space as a systematic phenomenon that has a fundamental role in guiding society towards the principles of sustainable development such that social and economic development and Improving the quality of life of each region depends on its spatial planning system.
The construction of dams is considered to be an interventionist measure in the environmental system, which may lead to positive or negative impacts. While these impacts can be recognized directly in all elements and phenomena that are related to the geographical space, they play an important role in the process of spatial development and "production of space". This article questions to what extent the construction of the Alavian dam affects the integrated spatial reorganization of rural settlements.
To investigate this, the Alavian reservoir dam in East Azarbaijan province (Iran) has been selected as a case study. The construction of the dam and the Alavian drainage network in the Maragheh and Bonab areas began in 1990 and ended in 1995 aiming to provide drinking, agricultural and industrial water as well as flood control. We hypothesized that the implementation of this project has caused a wide change in the structural and functional status of the spatial system as well as the changes in the environmental, socio-cultural and economy of the human settlements located at the margin of the reservoir. We studied such structural/functional changes in the spatial system of the Alavian dam and its irrigation network. It is presumed that "the role of the construction and Utilization of the dam and irrigation networks" has a great impact on "developments of the spatial system of rural settlements", mostly in social, economic and environmental.
In summary, we offer the following hypotheses:
- In terms of segmentation, the top-down approach and structural approach, implementation and exploitation of the dam and Alavian irrigation network have not changed the spatial system of rural settlements within the scope of the project.
- Spatial performance due to the construction of the dam and the Alavian irrigation network is different in structural and functional changes of the spatial system of rural settlements according to their dispersal and spatial distribution.
All data (quantitative and qualitative) required for this research were collected using two methods of library studies and field survey and then analyzed. Data collection tools, including village and household questionnaires, interviews, focus group meetings, observation and field surveys, were collected through all data collection tools. The general questionnaire for all villages (27 villages) was completed in full format. The household size of the samples was calculated using a Cochran method with a confidence level of 95 percent for all 370 households. The household questionnaire was randomly filled out. The questionnaire of villages and households was completed according to the impact of the construction of the Alavian reservoir Dam separately and with a proportional distribution in the upstream and downstream villages.
To analyze the data, normality, correlation, Kruskal-Wallis, Mann-Whitney U and Kendall coefficient were performed using SPSS software.
This study presented an innovative way to evaluate the effects of construction of the dam and irrigation network on the variation of the spatial system of rural settlements in an integrated manner based on spatial paradigm. The findings of this research are the result of collaborative fieldwork to describe the relationship between dam construction and irrigation network and changes in the spatial system of villages. Spatial planning as a new, comprehensive and systematic approach to geographic knowledge can well support the theory of sustainable development. This approach is based on the harmonious and balanced development of the environmental-ecological, socio-cultural, economic and physical conditions of the spatial system.
To sum up, it can be said that observation of the spatial organization of the areas affected by the implementation of the dam and the Alavian irrigation network, as a result of uncompetitive development policies, is indicative of the imbalance and inequality in access to opportunities (such as access to agricultural water, increased agricultural production, increased income, etc.). Accordingly, due to lack of a Integrated and systematic approach based on the principles of spatial planning in the study and implementation of the Alavian Reservoir Dam, is not possible the conditions for positive change in rural settlements. It actually causes disarray, disunity and imbalance of the spatial system of the regions. In other words, is one of the most important reasons for failure of development projects in third world countries, ignoring the dimensions and structural-functional aspects of spatial systems. The project of construction of Alavian reservoir dam and its irrigation network can be a good example of such projects.
Hossein Varjavand Naseri, Asghar Tahmasbi, Hasan Darabi, Ahmadreza Yavari, Mohammadjavad Amiri, Gholamreza Nabi Bid Hendi,
Volume 7, Issue 4 (2-2021)
Volume 7, Issue 4 (2-2021)
Abstract
Extended Abstract:
The increasing challenge of water in many regions of the country is rooted in inappropriate governance of water resources at the basin levels. Investigating the interactions of different stakeholders and institutional arrangement affecting it is one of the key elements of governance system. The most important obstacle to achieving the optimal governance model of water resources in developing countries is the unknown path from governmental management, to good governance. The analysis of stakeholders and influential entities on their interactions is considered as one of the important pillars of governance assessment frameworks.
Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to evaluate the water resources of Zayandeh roud basin from the perspective of interactions between actors and formal institutions affecting their interactions. In this regard, it is attempted to answer two main questions: firstly, what is the organizational structure in management of Zayandeh roud?, Second, how far are the organizations’ policies and programs involved in the management of the watershed ?
In this study, Isfahan, Chaharmahal - bakhtiari , Khuzestan and Yazd which are related to the river basin issues, were selected for social network analysis. Organizations and governmental and non- governmental institutions related to the process of sustainable management were questioned. In this regard, according to the numerous studies conducted in the field of Zayandeh roud and Gavkhoni wetland , the number of organizations and related institutions were identified. Then, the network matrix of actors’ policy and collaboration was formed and centrality indices of input and output grades and betweenness centrality indices were measured through Ucinet software.
There are a wide range of active actors in management of Zayandeh roud river basin, each in an attempt to obtain more water resources from this river. As mentioned in the conceptual framework of the research, two key aspects are investigated. Key stakeholders analysis and their role in water resource management and review of actors ' policies in water resource management in two dimensions of belief in changing policies, and the need to change policy from the viewpoint of other actors. Accordingly, the research findings are presented in the following parts.
Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to evaluate the water resources of Zayandeh roud basin from the perspective of interactions between actors and formal institutions affecting their interactions. In this regard, it is attempted to answer two main questions: firstly, what is the organizational structure in management of Zayandeh roud?, Second, how far are the organizations’ policies and programs involved in the management of the watershed ?
In this study, Isfahan, Chaharmahal - bakhtiari , Khuzestan and Yazd which are related to the river basin issues, were selected for social network analysis. Organizations and governmental and non- governmental institutions related to the process of sustainable management were questioned. In this regard, according to the numerous studies conducted in the field of Zayandeh roud and Gavkhoni wetland , the number of organizations and related institutions were identified. Then, the network matrix of actors’ policy and collaboration was formed and centrality indices of input and output grades and betweenness centrality indices were measured through Ucinet software.
There are a wide range of active actors in management of Zayandeh roud river basin, each in an attempt to obtain more water resources from this river. As mentioned in the conceptual framework of the research, two key aspects are investigated. Key stakeholders analysis and their role in water resource management and review of actors ' policies in water resource management in two dimensions of belief in changing policies, and the need to change policy from the viewpoint of other actors. Accordingly, the research findings are presented in the following parts.
- decision making and facilitating information flow
- Power and control of actors in the network of organizational collaboration
- Co - ordination role in the enterprise - cooperative network
The findings of this research show that in the dimension of capacity and flow of information watershed management, Regional water organization in Isfahan province and in the next rank of water resources management, Zayandeh roud coordination council and Isfahan provincial governor are organizations that have high output degree and can play a key role in information flow. In other words, information that is necessary for the actors and other organizations is better flowed by these organizations.
In terms of supervision on the network of interactions and control over other actors in the basin, which was measured with the degree of centrality of input, Isfahan parliament representatives in the first and the agriculture jihad of Isfahan province gained the highest rank respectively. After these organizations which are mainly government and dependent entities, non - governmental organizations of three other provinces have the lowest rank in terms of ability to control the network. The lower power of NGOs in the social network of the organization indicates a low planning system for the management of the watershed. Comparative studies in the river basin show that the feature of the extent and diversity in the social - ecological system of a watershed among several distinct political areas can reveal the importance of the position of organizations that have a bargaining power in the watershed management network.
Betweenness centrality index in information exchange network has a fundamental role. The actors with the intermediary rate and high control power among the organizational stakeholders are the same organizational entrepreneurs who have an important role in establishing relationships and increasing interactions among other actors. If the actors with high degree of mediation are removed from the network, information exchange in the network will be disrupted.
It is obvious that without knowing these corporate entrepreneurs or in other words, actors with high mediation ability in the exchange information network, any activity in the direction of comprehensive management of land and sustainable development will be associated with time and cost. In connection with the task of coordination in watershed management, the Jihad of agriculture organization, department of environment and water room committee of Isfahan have obtained the highest degree of betweenness centrality which seems to be a suitable place due to their organizational functions. In this regard, attention and reinforcement of organizations such as NGOs and parliament representatives of three other provinces and provincial governor of these three provinces with low degree of betweenness centrality can be suggested. The lack of such interaction is undoubtedly one of the challenges facing sustainable management of the region. According to the results of other studies, it can be said that to achieve sustainable and integrated management of land and preservation of natural areas, it is necessary to study the pattern of relationship between organizational stakeholders.
The results show that the Regional water organization of Isfahan province and the Zayandeh roud coordination council have a higher position in decision making and information flow. On the other hand, the high performers of water resources such as Iran’s water resources management company and the Zayandeh roud coordinating council and in the next level, Regional water organization, the provincial governor and the parliament representatives of Isfahan are the best critics of the watershed governance. In contrast policies of jihad agricultural organization, farmers and Regional water organization of Isfahan have been criticized by other actors.
In terms of supervision on the network of interactions and control over other actors in the basin, which was measured with the degree of centrality of input, Isfahan parliament representatives in the first and the agriculture jihad of Isfahan province gained the highest rank respectively. After these organizations which are mainly government and dependent entities, non - governmental organizations of three other provinces have the lowest rank in terms of ability to control the network. The lower power of NGOs in the social network of the organization indicates a low planning system for the management of the watershed. Comparative studies in the river basin show that the feature of the extent and diversity in the social - ecological system of a watershed among several distinct political areas can reveal the importance of the position of organizations that have a bargaining power in the watershed management network.
Betweenness centrality index in information exchange network has a fundamental role. The actors with the intermediary rate and high control power among the organizational stakeholders are the same organizational entrepreneurs who have an important role in establishing relationships and increasing interactions among other actors. If the actors with high degree of mediation are removed from the network, information exchange in the network will be disrupted.
It is obvious that without knowing these corporate entrepreneurs or in other words, actors with high mediation ability in the exchange information network, any activity in the direction of comprehensive management of land and sustainable development will be associated with time and cost. In connection with the task of coordination in watershed management, the Jihad of agriculture organization, department of environment and water room committee of Isfahan have obtained the highest degree of betweenness centrality which seems to be a suitable place due to their organizational functions. In this regard, attention and reinforcement of organizations such as NGOs and parliament representatives of three other provinces and provincial governor of these three provinces with low degree of betweenness centrality can be suggested. The lack of such interaction is undoubtedly one of the challenges facing sustainable management of the region. According to the results of other studies, it can be said that to achieve sustainable and integrated management of land and preservation of natural areas, it is necessary to study the pattern of relationship between organizational stakeholders.
The results show that the Regional water organization of Isfahan province and the Zayandeh roud coordination council have a higher position in decision making and information flow. On the other hand, the high performers of water resources such as Iran’s water resources management company and the Zayandeh roud coordinating council and in the next level, Regional water organization, the provincial governor and the parliament representatives of Isfahan are the best critics of the watershed governance. In contrast policies of jihad agricultural organization, farmers and Regional water organization of Isfahan have been criticized by other actors.
Esmaiel Najafi, Dr Sayyad Irani Heris, Farshad Jafari,
Volume 7, Issue 4 (2-2021)
Volume 7, Issue 4 (2-2021)
Abstract
Abstract
Since the early 1990s, the idea of sustainable urban development has been a fundamental and very important issue for decision makers and thinkers. Because it encompasses the historical concept of development and at the same time has become very important in determining the current international, national and regional policies (Pugh, 2004). In recent years, governance has become a hot topic in public sector management, and this is due to the important role that governance plays in determining public health. Therefore, according to environmental resources, good governance means the way in which decision makers promote sustainable development, which includes the protection of the living environment (Shuakrizadeh and Ashrafi, 2011). Governance is the institutional capacity of public organizations to provide goods demanded by the public and to help the citizens of the country or their representatives efficiently, transparently, fairly, and with accountability to limited resources. This definition of governance represents an international organization and development institution such as the World Bank that seeks to support reforms through good governance programs aimed at strengthening the strategic capacity of donor governments while intending to engage civil society. Strengthen sovereignty. (Krueger,2007).
Environmental hazards and ecological crises are the result of the interaction of environmental, economic, cultural, health and even political variables. The scope of these variables is local-spherical, so that no place in the earth is far from its consequences, with the difference that the scope and depth of the crisis is severe and weak (Kaviani rad, 2010). Investigating the effects of environmental hazards in relation to sustainable development with a good governance approach is very important and very important in terms of nature, so the present study with descriptive-analytical approach and based on library and field studies to study the effects of environmental hazards on sustainable indicators of Mazandaran province It has dealt with the characteristics of decent humility. Brief descriptions of the concepts of sustainable development and development, environmental hazards and proper governance are also given in the text of the article.
The most important natural and human hazards in Mazandaran province are earthquakes, mass movements, floods, fires, droughts, frosts, pollution of water resources, soil erosion, pollution of agricultural products, urbanization and urban development, waste, etc. It brings a lot, attention to earth sciences and the environment can, in addition to preventing risks, accelerate the process of sustainable development.
The research method is descriptive-analytical and based on library and field studies. In order to gather information within the framework of theoretical foundations of research, by referring to library resources (Persian and Latin books, publications, dissertations and reputable foreign sites), the required materials have been collected. Statistics and information related to the development indicators of Mazandaran province have been extracted from the statistics of the Statistics Center of Iran and then examined with SPSS software, Table No. (3). The Cochran's formula was used to determine the sample size. The statistical population in this study is Mazandaran province and the population of the province in the general census of population and housing in 2016, 3,283,582 people, which by placing the total population of the region in the above formula with a probability level of 95% to calculate the sample size by estimating distributions. There were two sentences (Cochran). A total of 384 questionnaires were distributed among residents and officials in the study province, a simple random method.
Based on the appropriate governance indicators in relation to environmental hazards and sustainable development of Mazandaran province, it was evaluated as lower than average (2.78 with theoretical average 3). Based on the results of factor analysis after Warmax matrix period, the participation index shows the role of urban management in increasing people's participation in improving urban environment and reducing social anomalies in Mazandaran province and reducing environmental degradation (with a coefficient of 0.772). , In the index of accountability, accountability of urban managers to the demands and complaints of people about environmental degradation and employment status (with a coefficient of 0.645), in the index of effectiveness and efficiency, the effect of managers' programs on reducing pollution (air, water, etc.) and Increasing the quality of social and infrastructural indicators of sustainable development (0.772) and the variability of the effectiveness of the implemented projects On the part of environmental managers in the cities of Mazandaran province (with a coefficient of 0.720), in the transparency index, what is your level of knowledge about the approval of plans and programs to deal with the effects of environmental hazards on the development indicators of the province (with a coefficient of 0.660) ) And how much do you know about the budgets spent on environmental protection and development and development programs and job creation in the province (with a coefficient of 0.639), in the indicator of responsibility, willingness to accept responsibility in economic, social and environmental fields? What is the level of the neighborhood itself (with a coefficient of 0.592), in the index of the central law, the amount of legal treatment of officials with factors Local and regional pollutants are environmental degrading factors (with a coefficient of 0.8595), in the Justice and Equality Index, the government's attention to dealing with environmental degrading factors in the city and shortening the hand of land grabbers in Mazandaran province (with a coefficient of 0.739) They had a higher operating load.
In relation to the impact of human and natural hazards on sustainable development indicators, which clearly include environmental, economic and social indicators, justice and equality indicators and participation in Mazandaran province are better than other indicators. It shows that the indicators of transparency, accountability and rule of law are less than average in the eyes of the people and are not in a good position in this regard.
Since the early 1990s, the idea of sustainable urban development has been a fundamental and very important issue for decision makers and thinkers. Because it encompasses the historical concept of development and at the same time has become very important in determining the current international, national and regional policies (Pugh, 2004). In recent years, governance has become a hot topic in public sector management, and this is due to the important role that governance plays in determining public health. Therefore, according to environmental resources, good governance means the way in which decision makers promote sustainable development, which includes the protection of the living environment (Shuakrizadeh and Ashrafi, 2011). Governance is the institutional capacity of public organizations to provide goods demanded by the public and to help the citizens of the country or their representatives efficiently, transparently, fairly, and with accountability to limited resources. This definition of governance represents an international organization and development institution such as the World Bank that seeks to support reforms through good governance programs aimed at strengthening the strategic capacity of donor governments while intending to engage civil society. Strengthen sovereignty. (Krueger,2007).
Environmental hazards and ecological crises are the result of the interaction of environmental, economic, cultural, health and even political variables. The scope of these variables is local-spherical, so that no place in the earth is far from its consequences, with the difference that the scope and depth of the crisis is severe and weak (Kaviani rad, 2010). Investigating the effects of environmental hazards in relation to sustainable development with a good governance approach is very important and very important in terms of nature, so the present study with descriptive-analytical approach and based on library and field studies to study the effects of environmental hazards on sustainable indicators of Mazandaran province It has dealt with the characteristics of decent humility. Brief descriptions of the concepts of sustainable development and development, environmental hazards and proper governance are also given in the text of the article.
The most important natural and human hazards in Mazandaran province are earthquakes, mass movements, floods, fires, droughts, frosts, pollution of water resources, soil erosion, pollution of agricultural products, urbanization and urban development, waste, etc. It brings a lot, attention to earth sciences and the environment can, in addition to preventing risks, accelerate the process of sustainable development.
The research method is descriptive-analytical and based on library and field studies. In order to gather information within the framework of theoretical foundations of research, by referring to library resources (Persian and Latin books, publications, dissertations and reputable foreign sites), the required materials have been collected. Statistics and information related to the development indicators of Mazandaran province have been extracted from the statistics of the Statistics Center of Iran and then examined with SPSS software, Table No. (3). The Cochran's formula was used to determine the sample size. The statistical population in this study is Mazandaran province and the population of the province in the general census of population and housing in 2016, 3,283,582 people, which by placing the total population of the region in the above formula with a probability level of 95% to calculate the sample size by estimating distributions. There were two sentences (Cochran). A total of 384 questionnaires were distributed among residents and officials in the study province, a simple random method.
Based on the appropriate governance indicators in relation to environmental hazards and sustainable development of Mazandaran province, it was evaluated as lower than average (2.78 with theoretical average 3). Based on the results of factor analysis after Warmax matrix period, the participation index shows the role of urban management in increasing people's participation in improving urban environment and reducing social anomalies in Mazandaran province and reducing environmental degradation (with a coefficient of 0.772). , In the index of accountability, accountability of urban managers to the demands and complaints of people about environmental degradation and employment status (with a coefficient of 0.645), in the index of effectiveness and efficiency, the effect of managers' programs on reducing pollution (air, water, etc.) and Increasing the quality of social and infrastructural indicators of sustainable development (0.772) and the variability of the effectiveness of the implemented projects On the part of environmental managers in the cities of Mazandaran province (with a coefficient of 0.720), in the transparency index, what is your level of knowledge about the approval of plans and programs to deal with the effects of environmental hazards on the development indicators of the province (with a coefficient of 0.660) ) And how much do you know about the budgets spent on environmental protection and development and development programs and job creation in the province (with a coefficient of 0.639), in the indicator of responsibility, willingness to accept responsibility in economic, social and environmental fields? What is the level of the neighborhood itself (with a coefficient of 0.592), in the index of the central law, the amount of legal treatment of officials with factors Local and regional pollutants are environmental degrading factors (with a coefficient of 0.8595), in the Justice and Equality Index, the government's attention to dealing with environmental degrading factors in the city and shortening the hand of land grabbers in Mazandaran province (with a coefficient of 0.739) They had a higher operating load.
In relation to the impact of human and natural hazards on sustainable development indicators, which clearly include environmental, economic and social indicators, justice and equality indicators and participation in Mazandaran province are better than other indicators. It shows that the indicators of transparency, accountability and rule of law are less than average in the eyes of the people and are not in a good position in this regard.
Alireza Kazemi, Behnod Barmayehvar,
Volume 7, Issue 4 (2-2021)
Volume 7, Issue 4 (2-2021)
Abstract
Due to the insecurity of the construction industry, the purpose of this study is to evaluate safety management and investigate its impact on reducing accidents of sites in urban construction projects in the south of Tehran. Due to the nature and type of research, the present study is descriptive-correlational and practical research. The statistical population in this study is supervising engineers working in the field of urban construction in the south of Tehran (15, 16, 17, 18, 19, and 20 areas). Therefore, according to the latest statistical report published by the Tehran Engineering System Organization (5000 people) and based on the Morgan table, 351 acceptable answer sheets were collected.
In this research, data collection and information were performed using the library-documentary method and field method (with the help of observation tools, interviews, and especially questionnaires) and through a combined method (quantitative-qualitative) with quantitative nature and focus as well as survey strategy. Also in this research, in addition to utilizing the capacities of qualitative content analysis, the methods of quantitative analysis include descriptive statistics including frequency, average, and standard deviation, as well as inferential statistics including Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Friedman, Pearson, T-tests and regression analysis by SPSS 24 software, was used. Questionnaire questions were validated by reviewing previous research, consulting with experts, and validating with factor analysis and reliability using Cronbach's alpha method.
The results show that among the three effective factors in improving safety management and reducing site accidents in urban construction projects in the south of Tehran, the factors of “use of protective equipment”, “compilation of responsibilities” and “risk management” with averages of 4.0864, 4.0741, and 3.9812 are ranked the first, second, and the third rank, respectively. Besides, the average part of various site accidents is 4.0000.
According to the results of the research, from the total types of site accidents of “injuries to people due to non-use of personal protective equipment”, “damage to urban underground facilities during nailing operation”, “life and financial losses due to standard and unsafe construction site equipment”, “occurrence of silent death in workers' rooms due to unsafe gas appliances and lack of proper ventilation, “collapse of structural parts during welding”, “fall of workers, materials, and equipment from a height”, and “collapse of the walls of the pit and adjacent plaques due to lack of standard and standard excavation” are ranked first to seventh with an average of 5.7692, 4.8148, 3.8490, 3.7322, 3.7236, 3.1282, and 2.9829, respectively.
According to previous research, the “policy (compilation of responsibilities)” factor has the first impact on the safety of the construction industry, but in a case where the field of research is limited to construction projects and urban constructions (personalization) in which in such projects safety management is not generally systematic in the site, the prioritization between the factors affecting the safety management of the site has changed and the “policy (compilation of responsibilities)” factor is transferred to the second rank and the “use of protective equipment” factor is placed in the first rank. Therefore, builders and employers, and that project supervisors must be required to closely monitor this carefully formulate safety responsibilities in construction workshops.
Considering that, the factor of “non-use of personal protective equipment” is in the first place as the cause of site accidents and has already been ranked in the fifth place of safety hazards, so it can be concluded that since the last decade, the factor of “non-use of personal protective equipment” has risen from the fifth to the first rank. Therefore, it is necessary to pay more attention to the use of protective equipment in construction sites in Tehran, project supervisors should be stricter in this regard, and engineering organizations and municipalities should enact stricter rules and regulations.
According to the supervising engineers active in the field of research, “damage to urban underground facilities during nailing method” is in the second place in the classification of common types of site accidents in the field of urban construction of Tehran and nailing method for stabilization of deep urban ditches causes legal problems to enter the privacy of adjacent license plaques and obtain notarized consent from the owners of adjacent license plaques, in addition to the risk of damaging underground urban facilities and causing heavy damage to the project and it is necessary to use other modern methods of deep pit stabilization, including the “Top-Down” method.
In this study, “human and financial losses due to non-standard construction site equipment” is classified in the third rank of site accidents. Therefore, the municipalities and organizations of the engineering system must make the issuance of technical inspection certificates for site equipment mandatory and if the employer and the constructor do not provide the necessary documents in this regard or to prevent the continuation of executive operations.
Because accidents due to non-observance of safety issues in construction sites continue to occur for various reasons, it is necessary to establish stricter rules and regulations regarding non-compliance with safety issues in construction sites in the field of urban construction and the use of a safety officer in the site with relevant educational and professional backgrounds and qualifications is mandatory for all construction sites.
The results of this study show that increasing attention and accuracy in the areas of responsibility compilation, risk management, and use of protective equipment improves safety management and reduces accidents in construction sites in the field of urban construction of south of Tehran.
In this research, data collection and information were performed using the library-documentary method and field method (with the help of observation tools, interviews, and especially questionnaires) and through a combined method (quantitative-qualitative) with quantitative nature and focus as well as survey strategy. Also in this research, in addition to utilizing the capacities of qualitative content analysis, the methods of quantitative analysis include descriptive statistics including frequency, average, and standard deviation, as well as inferential statistics including Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Friedman, Pearson, T-tests and regression analysis by SPSS 24 software, was used. Questionnaire questions were validated by reviewing previous research, consulting with experts, and validating with factor analysis and reliability using Cronbach's alpha method.
The results show that among the three effective factors in improving safety management and reducing site accidents in urban construction projects in the south of Tehran, the factors of “use of protective equipment”, “compilation of responsibilities” and “risk management” with averages of 4.0864, 4.0741, and 3.9812 are ranked the first, second, and the third rank, respectively. Besides, the average part of various site accidents is 4.0000.
According to the results of the research, from the total types of site accidents of “injuries to people due to non-use of personal protective equipment”, “damage to urban underground facilities during nailing operation”, “life and financial losses due to standard and unsafe construction site equipment”, “occurrence of silent death in workers' rooms due to unsafe gas appliances and lack of proper ventilation, “collapse of structural parts during welding”, “fall of workers, materials, and equipment from a height”, and “collapse of the walls of the pit and adjacent plaques due to lack of standard and standard excavation” are ranked first to seventh with an average of 5.7692, 4.8148, 3.8490, 3.7322, 3.7236, 3.1282, and 2.9829, respectively.
According to previous research, the “policy (compilation of responsibilities)” factor has the first impact on the safety of the construction industry, but in a case where the field of research is limited to construction projects and urban constructions (personalization) in which in such projects safety management is not generally systematic in the site, the prioritization between the factors affecting the safety management of the site has changed and the “policy (compilation of responsibilities)” factor is transferred to the second rank and the “use of protective equipment” factor is placed in the first rank. Therefore, builders and employers, and that project supervisors must be required to closely monitor this carefully formulate safety responsibilities in construction workshops.
Considering that, the factor of “non-use of personal protective equipment” is in the first place as the cause of site accidents and has already been ranked in the fifth place of safety hazards, so it can be concluded that since the last decade, the factor of “non-use of personal protective equipment” has risen from the fifth to the first rank. Therefore, it is necessary to pay more attention to the use of protective equipment in construction sites in Tehran, project supervisors should be stricter in this regard, and engineering organizations and municipalities should enact stricter rules and regulations.
According to the supervising engineers active in the field of research, “damage to urban underground facilities during nailing method” is in the second place in the classification of common types of site accidents in the field of urban construction of Tehran and nailing method for stabilization of deep urban ditches causes legal problems to enter the privacy of adjacent license plaques and obtain notarized consent from the owners of adjacent license plaques, in addition to the risk of damaging underground urban facilities and causing heavy damage to the project and it is necessary to use other modern methods of deep pit stabilization, including the “Top-Down” method.
In this study, “human and financial losses due to non-standard construction site equipment” is classified in the third rank of site accidents. Therefore, the municipalities and organizations of the engineering system must make the issuance of technical inspection certificates for site equipment mandatory and if the employer and the constructor do not provide the necessary documents in this regard or to prevent the continuation of executive operations.
Because accidents due to non-observance of safety issues in construction sites continue to occur for various reasons, it is necessary to establish stricter rules and regulations regarding non-compliance with safety issues in construction sites in the field of urban construction and the use of a safety officer in the site with relevant educational and professional backgrounds and qualifications is mandatory for all construction sites.
The results of this study show that increasing attention and accuracy in the areas of responsibility compilation, risk management, and use of protective equipment improves safety management and reduces accidents in construction sites in the field of urban construction of south of Tehran.
Hamideh Roshani, Raoof Mostafazadeh, Abazar Esmali-Ouri, Mohsen Zabihi,
Volume 7, Issue 4 (2-2021)
Volume 7, Issue 4 (2-2021)
Abstract
Introduction and objective:
Temporal and spatial variability of rainfall is one of the determining factors for water resources management, agricultural production, drought risk, flood control and understanding the effect of climate change. The impact of spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation on flood/drought hazard and available water resources is an undeniable issue in water resources management. Precipitation concentration (PCI) and Seasonality (SI) indices are the important indicators to determine the distribution of precipitation in a region which can lead to identify and manage before occurring natural hazards including flood and drought and hydro-meteorological storms. Several methods available to study the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall. Indicators of rainfall concentration and seasonality are among the methods of studying rainfall dispersion that depend on the distribution of rainfall patterns at different time scales. Accordingly, the study and understanding of temporal and spatial changes in rainfall can lead to sound management policies in the field of water and soil resources by planners and decision makers.
Methodology:
The precipitation concentration index is presented as a powerful indicator for determining the temporal distribution of precipitation to show the distribution of precipitation and rain erosion. The increase in the value of this indicator indicates a low dispersion and a higher concentration of rainfall, which is closely related to the intensity of rainfall. Seasonality index as one of the key factors in detecting seasonal variation in the variables of natural ecosystems, measures the time distribution of hydrological components at different times of the year and uses each hydrological variable to classify different hydrologic variable regimes. In this regard, the present research aimed to investigate the spatial and temporal distribution and trend analysis of PCI and SI for 41 rain gauge stations of Golestan province (38-year study period) in annual, seasonal and dry and wet time scales. The Mann-Kendall test was used to determine the trend of time changes in PCI and SI indices during the study period in all selected rain gauge stations in Golestan province. Mann-Kendall test is one of the non-parametric tests to determine the trend in hydroclimate time series. The advantages of this method include its suitability for use in time series without a specific statistical distribution, as well as the effectiveness of this method in data with extreme values in time series. In order to determine the spatial pattern of PCI and SI indices in different time scales (annual, seasonal, and dry and wet periods), the method of inverse distance weighting was employed in GIS environment. In this method, a weight has been assigned to each point that decreases with increasing distance from the known value point. On the other hand, the effectiveness of the known point in estimating the unknown point and calculating the mean also decreases. In this regard, the best results are obtained when the behavior of the mathematical function is similar to the behavior of the observed phenomenon. The study area in terms of extent, topographic diversity, type of land use has a high heterogeneity that affects the characteristics and temporal and spatial occurrence of dry and wet periods. The average annual rainfall varies from about 150 to 750 mm over the study area.
Results:
According to the results, the average of PCI for annual, spring, summer, autumn, winter, dry and wet periods in the research area were obtained 13.15, 11.96, 13.15, 10.72, 9.96, 14.72, and 1072, respectively. Also, Chat station with 0.79 (seasonal distribution with dry and wet seasons) and Shastkalateh station with 0.47 (mainly seasonal distribution with short dry season) had the maximum and minimum of SI in the Golestan province, respectively. In addition, 27 and 14 of studied stations had the increasing (Significant and no-significant) and decreasing (Significant and no-significant) trend for PCI and SI.
Conclusions:
Non-compliance of precipitation in Golestan province with a single temporal and spatial pattern is another achievement of the present study. The results of the current research can be used as a roadmap for water resources planning and policy making in the study area. It is noteworthy that the PCI and SI indices do not emphasize the cumulative values of precipitation and address the pattern of rainfall distribution, which can be a better criterion for assessing changes in precipitation patterns at different time scales. In this regard, determining the priority of areas for protection and management of water and soil resources, and spatial pattern of agricultural crops. The trend of changes in PCI and SI indicators and its relationship with important climatic components can be considered in assessing the changes in pattern of precipitation and climatic variables.
Temporal and spatial variability of rainfall is one of the determining factors for water resources management, agricultural production, drought risk, flood control and understanding the effect of climate change. The impact of spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation on flood/drought hazard and available water resources is an undeniable issue in water resources management. Precipitation concentration (PCI) and Seasonality (SI) indices are the important indicators to determine the distribution of precipitation in a region which can lead to identify and manage before occurring natural hazards including flood and drought and hydro-meteorological storms. Several methods available to study the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall. Indicators of rainfall concentration and seasonality are among the methods of studying rainfall dispersion that depend on the distribution of rainfall patterns at different time scales. Accordingly, the study and understanding of temporal and spatial changes in rainfall can lead to sound management policies in the field of water and soil resources by planners and decision makers.
Methodology:
The precipitation concentration index is presented as a powerful indicator for determining the temporal distribution of precipitation to show the distribution of precipitation and rain erosion. The increase in the value of this indicator indicates a low dispersion and a higher concentration of rainfall, which is closely related to the intensity of rainfall. Seasonality index as one of the key factors in detecting seasonal variation in the variables of natural ecosystems, measures the time distribution of hydrological components at different times of the year and uses each hydrological variable to classify different hydrologic variable regimes. In this regard, the present research aimed to investigate the spatial and temporal distribution and trend analysis of PCI and SI for 41 rain gauge stations of Golestan province (38-year study period) in annual, seasonal and dry and wet time scales. The Mann-Kendall test was used to determine the trend of time changes in PCI and SI indices during the study period in all selected rain gauge stations in Golestan province. Mann-Kendall test is one of the non-parametric tests to determine the trend in hydroclimate time series. The advantages of this method include its suitability for use in time series without a specific statistical distribution, as well as the effectiveness of this method in data with extreme values in time series. In order to determine the spatial pattern of PCI and SI indices in different time scales (annual, seasonal, and dry and wet periods), the method of inverse distance weighting was employed in GIS environment. In this method, a weight has been assigned to each point that decreases with increasing distance from the known value point. On the other hand, the effectiveness of the known point in estimating the unknown point and calculating the mean also decreases. In this regard, the best results are obtained when the behavior of the mathematical function is similar to the behavior of the observed phenomenon. The study area in terms of extent, topographic diversity, type of land use has a high heterogeneity that affects the characteristics and temporal and spatial occurrence of dry and wet periods. The average annual rainfall varies from about 150 to 750 mm over the study area.
Results:
According to the results, the average of PCI for annual, spring, summer, autumn, winter, dry and wet periods in the research area were obtained 13.15, 11.96, 13.15, 10.72, 9.96, 14.72, and 1072, respectively. Also, Chat station with 0.79 (seasonal distribution with dry and wet seasons) and Shastkalateh station with 0.47 (mainly seasonal distribution with short dry season) had the maximum and minimum of SI in the Golestan province, respectively. In addition, 27 and 14 of studied stations had the increasing (Significant and no-significant) and decreasing (Significant and no-significant) trend for PCI and SI.
Conclusions:
Non-compliance of precipitation in Golestan province with a single temporal and spatial pattern is another achievement of the present study. The results of the current research can be used as a roadmap for water resources planning and policy making in the study area. It is noteworthy that the PCI and SI indices do not emphasize the cumulative values of precipitation and address the pattern of rainfall distribution, which can be a better criterion for assessing changes in precipitation patterns at different time scales. In this regard, determining the priority of areas for protection and management of water and soil resources, and spatial pattern of agricultural crops. The trend of changes in PCI and SI indicators and its relationship with important climatic components can be considered in assessing the changes in pattern of precipitation and climatic variables.
Bohloul Alijani,
Volume 7, Issue 4 (2-2021)
Volume 7, Issue 4 (2-2021)
Abstract
Abstract
Corona Virus pandemic outbreak is the counter act and warning of the natural environment for the destructive activities of man in the nature. Many researchers and specialists believe that a risk free and sustainable life is possible if we correct our behavior toward the nature. This research was carried out to substantiate this hypothesis and offer a reasonable and rationale solution. It is believed that the best way to solve this problem is the environmental ethics. Many other ways such as technology have been proposed, but until the mind and thought of man has not changed to good relation with the nature, it is not possible to reach a viable solution. For this end, the integrated system of earth was analyzed to understand mechanism of the relation between nature and human. Two supportive theories of Markov Blanket and Gaia were addressed here to explain the relation between nature and society. According to these theories the system of earth and society is live and any change in one will mirror itself on the other. As a result, the society models itself to the nature in long run. This means that to have a healthy society we should have a healthy nature and environment. Thus, the UNEP has suggested the integrated One Health program to save nature, humans and animals at the same time.
The distortions of the earth during the past 70 years were sampled and described as the footprints of mankind. Some examples of environmental disorders such as climate change, droughts, floods and diseases were analyzed and their impacts on the society were displayd. In order to demonstrate the environmental ethics as the only solution to the current crises, first the ethics in general were discussed and then the environmental ethics were given a thorough explanation. Different underpinning philosophies are presented and accordingly different approaches to the nature such as development, preservation and conservation were discussed. A new philosophy, geocentrism, was suggested as the suitable and efficient thought. According to this philosophy it is the distributions which are in the forefront of human destruction. Therefore, we should try not to disturb the distributions of any kind. These include all ecosystems of any scale; because emphasizing on the ecosystems is not sufficient. The geocentrism philosophy covers all non - anthropocentrism philosophies such as biocentrism and ecocentrism. Of the different approaches, the conservation was selected as it assumes intrinsic value for the nature and sustainability of resources for ever.
To solve the problem and bring the earth system to sustainable state, the environmental ethics should be implemented. In terms of moral values, these include truth, good, duty and justice. The mankind should characterize himself with these genuine characters. He should do his duty as not making problem to the life of any creature; this being human, plant, animal or rock and soil and etc. He should do the good and justice. On the objective side, he should give intrinsic value for every creature on the earth including the environment and its components. In this way, we treat the environment with respect and dignity and not let ourselves to destroy or damage it. However, to achieve these goals we should use resources only as much as we need biologically, consider the long run benefits instead of short term benefits, treat the nature as having intrinsic value, implement the environmental distance from wild life, using vegetarian diet.
One important notice is the nature of human who we are asking to do these mandatories. Are we sure that what we are ordering human will be done by him. If he does not do then none of these comments is valuable. Therefore, we first should understand the humans and educate them to accept our orders. This is why that the ethics become important. We should train moral humans and then ask them to do. He will do only when he gets overarching and believed knowledge about the subjects we are offering. The main reason for the distortion of the nature is that the humans are not aware of the value of nature and the long run results of their actions. This is possible only through the good and responsible training of man. We are now missing this education. In brief, we understand that the main solution for the destruction of nature is empowering the humans with morals, especially environmental ethics. But to implement this objective, at the first point we need a wise and understandable human. Therefore, first we should train people and ask them to act as a moral and generous person and care for the nature and all creatures of the universe.
The distortions of the earth during the past 70 years were sampled and described as the footprints of mankind. Some examples of environmental disorders such as climate change, droughts, floods and diseases were analyzed and their impacts on the society were displayd. In order to demonstrate the environmental ethics as the only solution to the current crises, first the ethics in general were discussed and then the environmental ethics were given a thorough explanation. Different underpinning philosophies are presented and accordingly different approaches to the nature such as development, preservation and conservation were discussed. A new philosophy, geocentrism, was suggested as the suitable and efficient thought. According to this philosophy it is the distributions which are in the forefront of human destruction. Therefore, we should try not to disturb the distributions of any kind. These include all ecosystems of any scale; because emphasizing on the ecosystems is not sufficient. The geocentrism philosophy covers all non - anthropocentrism philosophies such as biocentrism and ecocentrism. Of the different approaches, the conservation was selected as it assumes intrinsic value for the nature and sustainability of resources for ever.
To solve the problem and bring the earth system to sustainable state, the environmental ethics should be implemented. In terms of moral values, these include truth, good, duty and justice. The mankind should characterize himself with these genuine characters. He should do his duty as not making problem to the life of any creature; this being human, plant, animal or rock and soil and etc. He should do the good and justice. On the objective side, he should give intrinsic value for every creature on the earth including the environment and its components. In this way, we treat the environment with respect and dignity and not let ourselves to destroy or damage it. However, to achieve these goals we should use resources only as much as we need biologically, consider the long run benefits instead of short term benefits, treat the nature as having intrinsic value, implement the environmental distance from wild life, using vegetarian diet.
One important notice is the nature of human who we are asking to do these mandatories. Are we sure that what we are ordering human will be done by him. If he does not do then none of these comments is valuable. Therefore, we first should understand the humans and educate them to accept our orders. This is why that the ethics become important. We should train moral humans and then ask them to do. He will do only when he gets overarching and believed knowledge about the subjects we are offering. The main reason for the distortion of the nature is that the humans are not aware of the value of nature and the long run results of their actions. This is possible only through the good and responsible training of man. We are now missing this education. In brief, we understand that the main solution for the destruction of nature is empowering the humans with morals, especially environmental ethics. But to implement this objective, at the first point we need a wise and understandable human. Therefore, first we should train people and ask them to act as a moral and generous person and care for the nature and all creatures of the universe.
Key words: Corona Virus, Covid-19, sustainability, environmental ethics, human-nature relation, Markov Blanket, natural resources, UNEP One Health program, Gaia, Anthroposcene.
Dr Somayeh Rafati,
Volume 7, Issue 4 (2-2021)
Volume 7, Issue 4 (2-2021)
Abstract
Extended Abstract
Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) are the convective precipitation structure that is most frequently associated with floods at mid-latitudes, mainly due to the high degree of organisation, which allows the structure to be maintained for a longer period of time and to become more extensive. Moreover, MCSs are an important link between atmospheric convection and larger-scale atmospheric circulation. Based on the results of previous studies, it can be claimed that Sudanese low pressure systems in many cases are the cause of the formation of MCSs, especially in southwestern Iran. Although many studies have been done in Iran on these systems and how they are formed, but the role of some environmental components of their formation and intensification, such as vertical wind shear, High and Low Level Jets (HLJ and LLJ) has received less attention. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the role of these factors in addition of the known factors that cause the formation of these systems. For this purpose, the flood of 24 and 25 march 2019 in the south and southwest of Iran has been selected as a case study.
To track and investigate the spatial characteristics of MCSs in this study, IR channel of the second-generation Meteosat imagery (MSG) on March 24 and 25, 2019, with a spatial resolution of 3 km and a temporal resolution of 15 minutes from Eumetsat site was extracted. After calibration and georeference of the images, the brightness temperature was calculated. The exact choice of temperature threshold for the identification of convective systems is optional and depends on the spatial resolution and wavelength of imagery. The size distribution obtained from the 207 or 218 k thresholds are not very different, especially for larger convection systems. Therefore, in this study, a threshold of 218 degrees Kelvin was used. Also, there is no agreement among researchers on the criterion of minimum length or area in the definition of MCSs, and this criterion is mostly determined by the characteristics of the region and the selected temperature threshold. In this study we select a threshold of 10 thousand square kilometers. In other words, the system was identified as MCSs, which at some point in life had an area of more than 10,000 square kilometers. The daily precipitation data of GPCC database were used to investigate the scattering of precipitation produced by these systems. Also, to understand the synoptic and environmental conditions of occurrence of MCSs on studied days, first geopotential height data, zonal and meridional wind components, potential temperature, relative humidity, vertical velocity and CAPE from ECMWF database were extracted and then the required maps and diagrams were prepared to synoptic and environmental analyses.
In general, the results of this study showed that three MCSs on March 24 and 25, 2019 affected different parts of Iran. The maximum area of the cold core of the first system is about 73,000 square kilometers and has traveled from west to north of Iran. The second system, which affected Iran from the west to the northeast, had a maximum area of about 660 thousand square kilometers. The cold core of the third quasi-stable system with a linear extension (northeast-southwest) and a maximum area of about 440 thousand square kilometers, has moved slightly to the southeast.
The synoptic conditions of the formation of these systems have been the same as the common pattern of the formation of Sudanese low pressure systems and MCSs. In this pattern, Azores high pressure can bring the cold air of the high latitudes to the middle latitudes and hot and humid air is injected by the high pressure over the Oman Sea and the Arabian Sea, which activates the Red Sea convergence zone along with the Mediterranean system. These conditions have led to the formation of the minimum potential temperature zone in the eastern Mediterranean with significant temperature and pressure differences compared to its environment, resulting in the formation of LLJ. This LLJ has been very effective in transferring hot and humid air to western Iran. So that in the peak hours of convective activity in the center of Iran, a potential temperature difference of about 30 degrees Kelvin with the environment has created that has played an effective role in the formation of convective storms. The transfer of hot and humid air by the LLJ has led to the formation and continuation of convection and the release of latent heat to enhance the convergence and longer life of convection systems. On the other hand, the coupling of LLJ and HLJ, by strengthening the MCSs in the western part of Iran and strengthening the divergent flow at higher levels, has strengthened the HLJ, which in turn has led to strengthening the convective system. Vertical wind shear probably also led to the formation of new convective cells in areas far from the origin of the primary convective cells. During the peak hours, unstable convective activity was observed over a large part of Iran, especially the southern and western parts, and its maximum was observed from the southern half of the Red Sea along the convergence zone to the west of Iran.
Therefore, various components of the Sudanese low pressure system play an important role in the formation, continuity and development of mseoscale convective systems. It seems that low-level jet, vertical wind shear and its interaction with the Red Sea convergence zone and the outflow of primary convective cells have a very effective role in the occurrence of this phenomenon. Thus, more detailed studies of this issue using mesoscale numerical models will probably identify unknown aspects of Iran's climate.
Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) are the convective precipitation structure that is most frequently associated with floods at mid-latitudes, mainly due to the high degree of organisation, which allows the structure to be maintained for a longer period of time and to become more extensive. Moreover, MCSs are an important link between atmospheric convection and larger-scale atmospheric circulation. Based on the results of previous studies, it can be claimed that Sudanese low pressure systems in many cases are the cause of the formation of MCSs, especially in southwestern Iran. Although many studies have been done in Iran on these systems and how they are formed, but the role of some environmental components of their formation and intensification, such as vertical wind shear, High and Low Level Jets (HLJ and LLJ) has received less attention. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the role of these factors in addition of the known factors that cause the formation of these systems. For this purpose, the flood of 24 and 25 march 2019 in the south and southwest of Iran has been selected as a case study.
To track and investigate the spatial characteristics of MCSs in this study, IR channel of the second-generation Meteosat imagery (MSG) on March 24 and 25, 2019, with a spatial resolution of 3 km and a temporal resolution of 15 minutes from Eumetsat site was extracted. After calibration and georeference of the images, the brightness temperature was calculated. The exact choice of temperature threshold for the identification of convective systems is optional and depends on the spatial resolution and wavelength of imagery. The size distribution obtained from the 207 or 218 k thresholds are not very different, especially for larger convection systems. Therefore, in this study, a threshold of 218 degrees Kelvin was used. Also, there is no agreement among researchers on the criterion of minimum length or area in the definition of MCSs, and this criterion is mostly determined by the characteristics of the region and the selected temperature threshold. In this study we select a threshold of 10 thousand square kilometers. In other words, the system was identified as MCSs, which at some point in life had an area of more than 10,000 square kilometers. The daily precipitation data of GPCC database were used to investigate the scattering of precipitation produced by these systems. Also, to understand the synoptic and environmental conditions of occurrence of MCSs on studied days, first geopotential height data, zonal and meridional wind components, potential temperature, relative humidity, vertical velocity and CAPE from ECMWF database were extracted and then the required maps and diagrams were prepared to synoptic and environmental analyses.
In general, the results of this study showed that three MCSs on March 24 and 25, 2019 affected different parts of Iran. The maximum area of the cold core of the first system is about 73,000 square kilometers and has traveled from west to north of Iran. The second system, which affected Iran from the west to the northeast, had a maximum area of about 660 thousand square kilometers. The cold core of the third quasi-stable system with a linear extension (northeast-southwest) and a maximum area of about 440 thousand square kilometers, has moved slightly to the southeast.
The synoptic conditions of the formation of these systems have been the same as the common pattern of the formation of Sudanese low pressure systems and MCSs. In this pattern, Azores high pressure can bring the cold air of the high latitudes to the middle latitudes and hot and humid air is injected by the high pressure over the Oman Sea and the Arabian Sea, which activates the Red Sea convergence zone along with the Mediterranean system. These conditions have led to the formation of the minimum potential temperature zone in the eastern Mediterranean with significant temperature and pressure differences compared to its environment, resulting in the formation of LLJ. This LLJ has been very effective in transferring hot and humid air to western Iran. So that in the peak hours of convective activity in the center of Iran, a potential temperature difference of about 30 degrees Kelvin with the environment has created that has played an effective role in the formation of convective storms. The transfer of hot and humid air by the LLJ has led to the formation and continuation of convection and the release of latent heat to enhance the convergence and longer life of convection systems. On the other hand, the coupling of LLJ and HLJ, by strengthening the MCSs in the western part of Iran and strengthening the divergent flow at higher levels, has strengthened the HLJ, which in turn has led to strengthening the convective system. Vertical wind shear probably also led to the formation of new convective cells in areas far from the origin of the primary convective cells. During the peak hours, unstable convective activity was observed over a large part of Iran, especially the southern and western parts, and its maximum was observed from the southern half of the Red Sea along the convergence zone to the west of Iran.
Therefore, various components of the Sudanese low pressure system play an important role in the formation, continuity and development of mseoscale convective systems. It seems that low-level jet, vertical wind shear and its interaction with the Red Sea convergence zone and the outflow of primary convective cells have a very effective role in the occurrence of this phenomenon. Thus, more detailed studies of this issue using mesoscale numerical models will probably identify unknown aspects of Iran's climate.
Zahra Keikha, Javad Bazrafshan, Sirous Ghanbari, Aleme Keikha,
Volume 7, Issue 4 (2-2021)
Volume 7, Issue 4 (2-2021)
Abstract
The occurred disasters in recent decades show that communities and people have getting incrementally vulnerable against the hazards. Therefore, social resiliency is the capacity of change, adaptation, and power of resisting against the social stresses and disasters. This research aims at the spatial analysis of the local community to have effective social indexes on resiliency against the environmental hazards in the Sistan region. The methodology of the research is applied due to its nature and descriptive-analytical with the quantitative-surveying approach based on structural equations modeling (SEM) due to its method. The statistical population of the research includes heads of households in 373 villages that 189 people were selected as a statistical sample in proportion to the population volume by Cochran formula using the stratified random sampling method. Inventory was used as a tool to collect data of research, and validity and reliability of tools were studied and confirmed by confirmatory factor analysis, and Cronbach’s alpha test and composite reliability, respectively. SEM method with partial least squares technical approach and SMART PLS3 software was used to analyze the research data in inferential statistics level. Findings of research showed that the path coefficients of social indexes relationship with social resiliency are significant based on t-value and p-value. In a way that t-value of this path is 11.28 and higher than its critical value, 2.58, and the p-value is lower than 0.05. In addition, WASPAS model was used for the spatial analysis of the effective social factors on the resiliency of the studied villages. This showed that villages of Zahak city have the maximum Qi and villages of Hamoon city have the minimum Qi. Thus, it is concluded that there is a significant relationship between the social indexes and the resiliency of the villagers. Moreover, the volume of the social index effect is high. Since villagers have higher Qi, they have more social resiliency. Hence, it is claimed that the villages of Zahak region have higher social resiliency.
Valiollah Sheikhy, Hossein Malakooti, Sarmad Ghader,
Volume 7, Issue 4 (2-2021)
Volume 7, Issue 4 (2-2021)
Abstract
Abstract
Increasing population growth and consequently the development of urban areas can profoundly affect climate events and thus intensify phenomena such as heat stress. Given the expected effects of this phenomenon on human health, it is very important to provide mitigating operational solutions to control future conditions. Therefore, the present study was conducted with the aim of simulating the effect of urban planning solutions on dynamic processes in the urban environment and at the local scale in Tehran city using the WRF mid-scale numerical model. Simulations were performed using 4 nested domains with a two-way interactive nesting procedure. The study used a simple Single-Layer Urban Canopy Model and a more advanced multi-layered approach called Multi‐layer urban canopy (BEP). The results of the simulations, after comparing the two urban schemes with a sensitivity measurement for different strategies, showed that the surface reflectance change scenario has the greatest impact on the land surface compared to the two scenarios of increasing urban green areas and reducing building density. Due to Tehran's specific topographic location and high overall temperature in this region, Tehran is relatively vulnerable to heat stress. Compared to the intensity of 5.5 °C for base mode, applying control measures can reduce the intensity of UHI up to 3 °C when using bright colors with high reflectivity for the ceiling and 1 ° C by replacing impermeable surfaces with natural vegetation in urban areas of Tehran.
Increasing population growth and consequently the development of urban areas can profoundly affect climate events and thus intensify phenomena such as heat stress. Given the expected effects of this phenomenon on human health, it is very important to provide mitigating operational solutions to control future conditions. Therefore, the present study was conducted with the aim of simulating the effect of urban planning solutions on dynamic processes in the urban environment and at the local scale in Tehran city using the WRF mid-scale numerical model. Simulations were performed using 4 nested domains with a two-way interactive nesting procedure. The study used a simple Single-Layer Urban Canopy Model and a more advanced multi-layered approach called Multi‐layer urban canopy (BEP). The results of the simulations, after comparing the two urban schemes with a sensitivity measurement for different strategies, showed that the surface reflectance change scenario has the greatest impact on the land surface compared to the two scenarios of increasing urban green areas and reducing building density. Due to Tehran's specific topographic location and high overall temperature in this region, Tehran is relatively vulnerable to heat stress. Compared to the intensity of 5.5 °C for base mode, applying control measures can reduce the intensity of UHI up to 3 °C when using bright colors with high reflectivity for the ceiling and 1 ° C by replacing impermeable surfaces with natural vegetation in urban areas of Tehran.
Nader Shohani, Farshad Shohani, Fariba Shohani, Hakim Bakrizadeh, Shamsollah Asgari,
Volume 7, Issue 4 (2-2021)
Volume 7, Issue 4 (2-2021)
Abstract
Abstract
Iran and especially the West and Southwest regions of Iran are intermittently confronted with the phenomenon of dust and its problems. West of Iran Due to the natural environment and proximity to areas of dust source in West Asia, a region susceptible to the occurrence of dust phenomena is frequent. Fragments are the most important and perhaps the main threat to the health of individuals. Statistics show the destructive and negative effects of these microorganisms or The same dust is on people in the West and Southwest of Iran. Statistics and studies from the south and west of the country show that more than 100 days have been infected between the years 77 to 91, which has many health problems, and others Items have been created.Method of research In this article, a descriptive-analytical study. Then, using a questionnaire on the relationship between the phenomenon of dust and the health of citizens with the hypothesis: there is a significant relationship between the phenomenon of dust and the occurrence or exacerbation of heart disease in residents of Ilam. This study is a descriptive-analytic study in terms of post-event topic. The statistical population of this study was all patients admitted to Mustafa Khomeini Hospital in Ilam in the years 92-88.
In this paper, we try to first analyze the dust phenomenon, the frequency of its occurrence in the past and recent decades, and investigate the origin and conditions of formation of the phenomenon, and then to the effect Dusty storms on the cardiovascular health of the inhabitants of the area (with an emphasis on the city of Ilam). The results of multivariate statistical analysis including Pearson correlation coefficient, regression test, Chi-square test, ANOVA (variance analysis), and Kundal's correlation test showed that the relationship between the arrival of microorganisms in the statistical period of the study with the number of patients suffering from cardiovascular disease At the significance level, 0.05 was significant and indicates the existence of the relationship. This means that as the amount of entropy to the city of Ilam increased, the number of cases of this disease also increased.
Iran and especially the West and Southwest regions of Iran are intermittently confronted with the phenomenon of dust and its problems. West of Iran Due to the natural environment and proximity to areas of dust source in West Asia, a region susceptible to the occurrence of dust phenomena is frequent. Fragments are the most important and perhaps the main threat to the health of individuals. Statistics show the destructive and negative effects of these microorganisms or The same dust is on people in the West and Southwest of Iran. Statistics and studies from the south and west of the country show that more than 100 days have been infected between the years 77 to 91, which has many health problems, and others Items have been created.Method of research In this article, a descriptive-analytical study. Then, using a questionnaire on the relationship between the phenomenon of dust and the health of citizens with the hypothesis: there is a significant relationship between the phenomenon of dust and the occurrence or exacerbation of heart disease in residents of Ilam. This study is a descriptive-analytic study in terms of post-event topic. The statistical population of this study was all patients admitted to Mustafa Khomeini Hospital in Ilam in the years 92-88.
In this paper, we try to first analyze the dust phenomenon, the frequency of its occurrence in the past and recent decades, and investigate the origin and conditions of formation of the phenomenon, and then to the effect Dusty storms on the cardiovascular health of the inhabitants of the area (with an emphasis on the city of Ilam). The results of multivariate statistical analysis including Pearson correlation coefficient, regression test, Chi-square test, ANOVA (variance analysis), and Kundal's correlation test showed that the relationship between the arrival of microorganisms in the statistical period of the study with the number of patients suffering from cardiovascular disease At the significance level, 0.05 was significant and indicates the existence of the relationship. This means that as the amount of entropy to the city of Ilam increased, the number of cases of this disease also increased.
Iraj Ghasemi, Sheida Ebrahimi Salimi,
Volume 7, Issue 4 (2-2021)
Volume 7, Issue 4 (2-2021)
Abstract
Introduction
The development of the tourism industry, in addition to paying attention to the infrastructure of this industry, requires comprehensive planning of persuasive factors, as well as reducing the environmental and natural risks of tourism destinations. According to research, tourists are affected by four types of risks, including health, cultural, political and economic, but among the natural hazards that endanger the health of tourists is of particular importance.
Among the tourist destinations, ecotourism has a significant success, which causes many hazards in these areas. Maranjab desert for the relative temperament of temperature, tourist attractions, diversity of animal species and vegetation, and the existence of typical and prominent forms of desert is one of the most visited areas of desert ecotourism. Therefore, many problems and dangers are threatening. In this research, an attempt has been made to identify and analyze the main natural and environmental hazards of the Maranjab desert with a descriptive-analytical method based on library and field studies.
methodology
The general approach of mixed-method with the priority of quantitative method is based on qualitative studies. For this purpose, after identifying the risks, a questionnaire for prioritization was collected through interviews with experts and then evaluated and analyzed through the FMEA technique. The method of FMEA is one of the tools for continuous improvement of product and service quality. The purpose of the FMEA is to identify the risks and risks of the product and process that may be latent or obvious. Once identified, the next step is to make decisions that can be addressed. This method is used in medicine, manufacturing and services industries. In recent years, the use of this model for risk assessment in the humanities and tourism has also become popular. This method is based on three key components of probability of occurrence, severity of occurrence and probability of discovery.
After returning the questionnaires and evaluating the quality of response, a random sample of 100 questionnaires was selected and analyzed based on the method of analysis of failure factors and its effects. According to the purpose of the study, half of the audience had an individual trip and half of them traveled to the area with the group. Audiences were asked to assign a score between 1 and 10 for each component of the method. Accordingly, each factor will have a score in each case, which is obtained from the average score of the audience and has been between 1 and 10. After identifying and evaluating the risk perceived by the audience, in an interview with professors and
The development of the tourism industry, in addition to paying attention to the infrastructure of this industry, requires comprehensive planning of persuasive factors, as well as reducing the environmental and natural risks of tourism destinations. According to research, tourists are affected by four types of risks, including health, cultural, political and economic, but among the natural hazards that endanger the health of tourists is of particular importance.
Among the tourist destinations, ecotourism has a significant success, which causes many hazards in these areas. Maranjab desert for the relative temperament of temperature, tourist attractions, diversity of animal species and vegetation, and the existence of typical and prominent forms of desert is one of the most visited areas of desert ecotourism. Therefore, many problems and dangers are threatening. In this research, an attempt has been made to identify and analyze the main natural and environmental hazards of the Maranjab desert with a descriptive-analytical method based on library and field studies.
methodology
The general approach of mixed-method with the priority of quantitative method is based on qualitative studies. For this purpose, after identifying the risks, a questionnaire for prioritization was collected through interviews with experts and then evaluated and analyzed through the FMEA technique. The method of FMEA is one of the tools for continuous improvement of product and service quality. The purpose of the FMEA is to identify the risks and risks of the product and process that may be latent or obvious. Once identified, the next step is to make decisions that can be addressed. This method is used in medicine, manufacturing and services industries. In recent years, the use of this model for risk assessment in the humanities and tourism has also become popular. This method is based on three key components of probability of occurrence, severity of occurrence and probability of discovery.
After returning the questionnaires and evaluating the quality of response, a random sample of 100 questionnaires was selected and analyzed based on the method of analysis of failure factors and its effects. According to the purpose of the study, half of the audience had an individual trip and half of them traveled to the area with the group. Audiences were asked to assign a score between 1 and 10 for each component of the method. Accordingly, each factor will have a score in each case, which is obtained from the average score of the audience and has been between 1 and 10. After identifying and evaluating the risk perceived by the audience, in an interview with professors and
Saeed Fathi, Ph.d. Ali Mohammad Khorshiddoust,
Volume 8, Issue 1 (5-2021)
Volume 8, Issue 1 (5-2021)
Abstract
Zoning and Spatial Analysis of Potential Environmental Hazards
Case study: Silvana District
Abstract
Natural hazards can be considered as one of the most important threats to humankind and nature that can occur anywhere in the world. Natural hazards are one of the main obstacles to sustainable development in different countries and one of the important indicators of the development of world countries is their readiness to deal with natural hazards. Therefore, it is important to pay attention to it and appropriate measures should be taken to reduce the vulnerability of human settlements. Nowadays with increasing population growth, population dynamics and the large number of people exposed to various types of disasters, the need to identify environmental potential hazards and identification of hazardous areas are felt more and more. Meantime, some people may not be aware of potential hazards of their place of residence. So by identifying and evaluating potential hazards and their Risks before the occurrence, we can significantly reduce the severity of the damages and contribute to sustainable regional development. The negative effects of natural disasters can be minimized by the availability of comprehensive and useful information from different areas and Multihazard mapping is one of the most effective tools in this regard.
According to the above mentioned, in this study, the spatial analysis of potential hazards in Silvana district in Urmia County has been studied. This study area due to specific geographic conditions such as position, complexity of topographic and ecological structures, in general, the existence of environmental factors for hazards has been selected as the study area. There have been a number of hazards in the past and assessing of this area is necessary, because of the lack of previous studies. For this purpose, by reviewing various reports and doing field observations, three hazards including Flood, Landslide, and Earthquake are identified as potential hazards of the study area.
For assessing hazards, 12 factors in 6 clusters such as Slope, Aspect (Topographic factors), Lithology, Soil type, Distance to Faults (Geological factors) Precipitation (Climatological factors), River Network Density, Groundwater Resources (Hydrological factors), Land use, Distance to Roads (Human factors), Observed Landslide Density and Seismicity (Historical factors) as the research factors has been selected. For weighting factors, Analytic Network Process (ANP) Method in Super Decisions 2.6.0 software environment has been used. The results of the analysis show that Slope (0.201), Precipitation (0.161), Lithology (0.112), Distance to Faults (0.106), Land use (0.096), Rivers (0.078), Seismicity (0.06), Soil Type (0.055), Landslide Density (0.047), Aspect (0.033), Groundwater (0.03) and Distance to Roads (0.016), Respectively have maximum to minimum relative weight. Then, weighted maps are standardized with using FUZZY functions. For this purpose, Fuzzy membership functions such as Linear, Large and Small has been selected based on each factor. For some factors such as Slope, Aspect, Lithology, Soil type, Rivers density, Land use, Seismicity and Landslide density, Fuzzy linear function has been used. For some others such as Groundwater and Precipitation, Fuzzy large function has been used and for distance to Faults and distance to Roads, Fuzzy small function has been used. Finally, weighted maps were overlay in ArcGIS 10.4.1 environment with Fuzzy Gamma 0.9 operator and potential hazards zoning maps is obtained.
Final results indicate that major parts in the Northwest, West and South of the study area located in high risk zones and 59 percent of the total area exposed to high risk. Based on hazard zoning maps, 44 percent of the area exposed to Flooding, 48 percent exposed to Landslide and 44 percent exposed to Earthquake. Also, 61 percent of the population or 37394 people exposed to one hazard, 7 percent or 3817 people exposed to two hazard and 8 percent or 4914 people exposed to three hazard. According to surveys, only 21 percent of the study area is considered as a low risk area but that does not mean that environmental hazards will never happen in these areas. In general, and based on results, it is concluded that Silvana district has a high potential for environmental hazards. Final results of the research show that potential hazards identifying and preparation of hazard zoning maps can be very useful in reducing damages and achieving sustainable regional development. Therefore, considering the ability of hazard zoning maps to identify areas exposed to risk and assess the type of potential hazards, These analyzes should be considered as one of the most appropriate and useful tools in different stages of crisis management that can be the solution to many problems in preventing and responding to natural disasters and therefore, it is recommended that they be used in the crisis management process.
Keywords: Spatial Analysis, Environmental Hazards, Silvana, ANP Method, Risk
Dr Amir Saffari, Dr Ramin Hatamifard, Dr Mansor Parvin,
Volume 8, Issue 1 (5-2021)
Volume 8, Issue 1 (5-2021)
Abstract
Karst Geomorphology effects on the environmental hazard intrinsic vulnerability of groundwater resources (Case study: the Aleshtar and Nourabad basins)
Introduction
Karst is the result of the dissolution (physical and chemical) in carbonate (limestone and dolomite) and evaporate rocks. Karst developing is affected by climatological and geological factors. In the other words Karst landscapes and karst aquifers are formed by the dissolution of carbonate rocks by water rich in carbon dioxide waters. Karst aquifers include valuable freshwater resources, but are sometimes difficult to exploit and are almost always vulnerable to contamination, due to their specific hydrogeologic properties, therefore, karst aquifers require increased protection and application of specific hydrogeologic methods for their investigation. The groundwater protection in karst aquifer has a special importance, because the transit time for unsaturated and saturated zone is so quickly that the attenuation of the pollutant. Karst groundwater vulnerability mapping should form the basis for protection zoning and land use planning. A conceptual framework was devised for vulnerability mapping based on this European approach.
Social and economic life of cities such as Nourabad, Alashtar, and numerous rural societies is connected to the Gareen anticline springs. In this paper we used PaPRIKa method for vulnerability assessment in the Aleshtar and Nourabad basins.
Material and Methods
The Gareen anticline in the Zagros Mountain range is located in the active deforming Zagros fold-thrust belt and Sanandaj-Sirjan zon. Alashtar and Nourabad karst aquifers are located in the north of Lorestan province. There are several thrust faults with northwest–southeast strike such as Gareen-Gamasiab and Gareen-Kahman Faults. Nourabad unit is composed mainly by gray limestone rocks, embedded marl limestone, recrystallized limestone and pyroclastic rocks. One of the most important features of the structural geology of the Alashtar unit, is abundance of the sedimentary rocks and scarcity of igneous rocks in this area. In other words In the Study basins the main geological formations incloud: Bakhtiarian conglomerate, carbonates of Sormeh, Taleh Zang, Pabdeh and Kashkan Formations.
The groundwater vulnerability assessment methods (PaPRIKa) applied at the test sites were designed specifically for karst aquifers. They are based on various types of information concerning the physical characteristics of the unsaturated and saturated zones, the aquifer structure and its hydrological behavior.
The PaPRIKa method takes into consideration criteria for both structure and functioning of the aquifer. Based on EPIK and RISK resource methods, PaPRIKa method was developed as a resource and source vulnerability mapping method, allowing assessing vulnerability with four criteria: Protection, Rock type, Infiltration and Karstification. The P map (Protection) considers the protection provided to the aquifers by layers above the aquifers: the S (soil texture, structure and thickness), Ca (permeability formations), the Uz (thickness, lithology and fracture degree of unsaturated zone) and E (Epikarst aquifer). Moreover, including the catchments of water losses where the vulnerability is higher. R map (Rock type) considers the lithology and the degree of fracturing of the sutured zone. I map (Infiltration) distinguishes concentrated from diffuse infiltration. Ka map (Karstification development) assesses the drainage capacity and the organization of the karst conduits network.
To calculate the vulnerability index, the four mentioned maps(P. R. I. Ka) have been combined using the following equation coefficients (eq.1):
PaPRIKa Index= 0.2 P + 0.2 R + 0.4 I + 0.2 Ka (1) eq
Due to the fact that karst geomorphology has a great impact on the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of water resources and the vulnerability assessment of these resources, fuzzy logic has been used to zonation of the Karst development in the Aleshtar and Nourabad basins. In the fuzzy method used a gamma operator (eq.2):
µ Combination= ((Fuzzy Algebraic Sum) (Fuzzy Algebraic Product)) 1-γ (2) eq
The vulnerability map for aquifers was prepared using the software Arc GIS10.4.
Discussion and Results
In the Gareen Antarctic region, due to the availability of suitable Karstification, includes: Lithology, Active Tectonics, Mediterranean climate (with average rainfall of between 454-448 mm and average temperature of 13 C˚) features are formed by various forms of karst such as closed pits (Doline, Swallow Hole, Aven, Polyeh (Peljee), several types of Karrens, dissolution Cavities, small and large Caves and Springs. The most important karst features in this area including Dolines (Solutional, Collapse, Subsidence and Dropout) which are known the Karst Nival. Based on the Karst development zoning map by using the fuzzy logic, 15% of the study area has been developed. Due to the vulnerability based on PaPRIKa method, the Aleshtar and Nourabad basins divided into 5 categories. Resuls show that the vulnerability of the study area is mainly classified as High or Very High, due to the highly developed Epikarst, which minimizes the protective function of the unsaturated zone. There are many karst landforms such as dolines and Swallow Holes that are highly vulnerable.
Conclusions
The final evaluation of the vulnerability ground waters in the Aleshtar and Nourabad basins using the PaPRIKa method shows that the study area is divided into five vulnerable (very high, high, moderate, low and very low). So that areas with a very low, low and moderate vulnerability are 27.3%, 22.3% and 20.6% of the basin area respectively. Also that areas with a high and very high vulnerability are 17% and 12.8% of the study area cover, respectively. Due to the lack of soil and plant cover, heavy snowfall and the formation of Karst-Nival (including Dolines) highlands of the Gareen Anticline have a very high vulnerability potential. Validation of the results of the karstic aquifers vulnerability to Electrical Conductivity (EC) data and monthly discharge of springs shows that the Zaz and Ahangaran springs are in a high vulnerability zone. In the aquifer of this springs, Rapid reductions in EC are detected after each recharge period. Also in contrast Rapid increases in EC with reductions in recharge. This situation shows the High developed of this aquifers, as a result, the potential for vulnerability in these aquifers is high.
But in the springs of Niaz and Abdolhosseini in the Nourabad basin, the EC chart has not changed much compared to recharge. Therefore, the aquifer of these springs is less undeveloped or low developed and also less vulnerable.
Key Words: Gareen Anticline, Geomorphology, Karst, Lorestan, Pa
Dr Hasan Lashkari, Mrs Mahnaz Jafari,
Volume 8, Issue 1 (5-2021)
Volume 8, Issue 1 (5-2021)
Abstract
Synoptic Patterns that Determine the Trajectory of Precipitation Systems of Sudanese Originntroduction
Introduction
Precipitation as an important climatic element has many irregularities and fluctuations. Iran, especially its southern half, has significant precipitation fluctuations. Several atmospheric systems are involved in the formation of precipitation in this region from of Iran. Sudanese system is one of the most important precipitation systems in Iran. This system, in different synoptic conditions, enters Iran from different input sources and passes through Iran in different ways.
The important and influential role of Sudan's low pressure on precipitation in Iran, especially in the southern part of the country, has been repeatedly demonstrated in numerous studies. But the formation and its expansion have received little attention. These reasons have led to the consideration of the position of Sudan's low-pressure synoptic expansion as an influential factor in the southern half of Iran precipitation. Therefore, the position of the expansion of this important climatic system has been investigated separately in the precipitation of the three regions south west, south middle and south east.
Materials and Methods
Two categories of data were used for this study. These data include daily precipitation data from the Iranian Meteorological Organization and the ERA interim gridded data include Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and the Geopotential Height of the 700 HP atmospheric level of the ECMWF. Second category data with horizontal resolution of 0.5 × 0.5° degrees during 1997-2017 statistical period were prepared.
To achieve the purpose of the study, the southern half of Iran was first divided into three regions: South-West, South-Mid and South-East. After extracting daily precipitation of the selected stations in all three geographic regions, a total of 142 precipitation systems was identified by applying the required criteria. From this number of precipitation systems, respectively, were obtained in the south west 107, south middle 19 and southeast 16, respectively. Then, the source of precipitation systems was extracted using the atmospheric lower level maps. Subsequently, the central core and zone of the first closed curve around the Sudanese low pressure were extracted separately for each group. The main axis of the Sudanese low-pressure trough are also drawn on all rainy day. Finally, the model or pattern of atmospheric circulation in the precipitation systems of the regions is presented separately.
Results and Discussion
The purpose of this study was to determine the position of the central core and the pattern of expansion of the first closed curve around the Sudanese system and the Sudanese system trough in precipitation in each of the three regions of the southern half of Iran. Since the arrangement of precipitation systems may vary in different months of the year, depending on the general atmosphere of the atmosphere, the position of the core, the pattern of expansion of the low-pressure trough and the trough of 700-hPa atmospheric level is analyzed separately each month.
In the synoptic pattern of systems, entering from the south west of Iran, the Arabian Subtropical High Pressure with the southwest-northeast direction is located in the eastern half of the Arabian Peninsula and west of the Oman Sea. In this pattern, the troughs are generally north-south. As a result, the rainfall intensity and intensity of precipitation systems, entering the south west of Iran are higher than the other two routes. The focal point of troughs this route is between 30 to 40° east (Eastern Mediterranean). In systems with South-Mid route, the Arabian Subtropical High Pressure has slightly shifted southward and found a northeast-southwest axis. In this pattern, the Mediterranean troughs are generally northeast-southwest. This pattern causes precipitation in the eastern half of the Iran. Or at least no precipitation in the northwest and west of the Iran.
The synoptic pattern of precipitation systems that enter Iran from the southeast is somewhat more complex. In this pattern, the Arabian Subtropical High Pressure has an unusual eastward shift. So that it is based in India. The troughs of this path showed two completely opposite patterns. In some systems, the troughs in the southwest-northeast direction with the orbital inclination, covers the whole of Saudi Arabia and southern Iran. On the contrary, in some systems the troughs stretch quite opposite to the first group, the northwest-southeast direction.
This asymmetry in the expansion of the troughs should be traced to the general topography of the Tibetan Plateau and the circulation pattern of caused by the presence of the Tibetan anticyclone. Basically Mediterranean troughs are disrupted in their usual eastward displacement after a longitude of 60 degrees. As you can see, the Sudanese low-pressure troughs for the South-East Route lack structural discipline and coordination.
Conclusion
The results of this study show that the location and pattern of expansion of the first closed curve around low pressure in different precipitation months and systems of the three zones do not differ significantly in location. Rather, it is the most important system in determining the direction of Sudanese systems, the Arabian Subtropical High Pressure and the pattern of expansion of the eastern Mediterranean trough. In the synoptic pattern of systems, entering from the south west of Iran, the Arabian Subtropical High Pressure with the southwest-northeast direction is located in the eastern half of the Arabian Peninsula and west of the Oman Sea. In this pattern, the troughs are generally north-south. In systems with South-Mid route, the Arabian Subtropical High Pressure has slightly shifted southward and found a northeast-southwest axis. In this pattern, the Mediterranean troughs are generally northeast-southwest. The synoptic pattern of precipitation systems that enter Iran from the southeast is somewhat more complex. In this pattern, the Arabian Subtropical High Pressure has an unusual eastward shift. So that it is based in India. The Sudanese low-pressure troughs for the South-East Route lack structural discipline and coordination. This asymmetry in the expansion of the troughs should be traced to the general topography of the Tibetan Plateau and the circulation pattern of caused by the presence of the Tibetan anticyclone.
Keywords: Synoptic Patterns, Sudanese Low Pressure system, Eastern Mediterranean Trough, Southern Half of Iran, Arabian Subtropical High Pressure.
Mr. Erfan Naseri, Mr. Alireza Massah Bavani, Mr. Tofigh Sadi,
Volume 8, Issue 1 (5-2021)
Volume 8, Issue 1 (5-2021)
Abstract
Detection and Attribution of Changing in Seasonal variability cause of climate change (Case study: Hillsides of Central Southern Alborz Mountains)
Abstract
One of the most important challenges for the human communities is Global Warming. This vital problem affected by Climate Change and corresponding effects. Thus this article attempted to assess the trend of real climate variables from synoptic stations. Daily precipitation, Daily Maximum Temperature and Daily Minimum Temperature have been selected for the Hillsides of Southern Central Alborz Mountains and have been tried to prove climate change and attribute the related forcing such as Greenhouse Gases. The Capital of Iran located in this region and this region has a special occasion, because at least a quarter of Iranian population live in these provinces (Tehran and Alborz) and four big dams located in this region. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s defines ‘‘detection’’ of climate change as ‘‘the process of demonstrating that climate or a system affected by climate has changed in some defined statistical sense, without providing a reason for that change,’’ while ‘‘attribution’’ is defined as the process of evaluating the relative contribution of multiple causal factors to a change or event with an assignment of statistical confidence. Regional D&A studies provide an insight to local changes in natural systems and may help in planning and developing robust adaptation strategies. Previously, formal detection and attribution have been used to investigate the nature of changes in various climatological variables such as air temperature, surface specific humidity, ocean heat, sea level pressure, continental river runoff, global land precipitation and precipitation extremes. However, almost all of these studies deal with climatological or meteorological variables at the global or continental scale. Studies which have attempted to formally detect and attribute regional hydrometeorological changes to anthropogenic effects are rare. Regional-scale D&A analysis is more difficult because the detection of anthropogenic ‘‘signal’’ in natural internal climate variability ‘‘noise’’ is determined by the signal-to-noise ratio which is proportional to the spatial scale of analysis, especially for real observation data. For overcoming this issue interpolation method (IDW) has been applied to transfer point data to area (gridded) data. The point data gathered from 3 synoptic stations (Mehrabad, Karaj and Abali). Then transferred data have been Standard and Averaged for 3 years. Standard values of annual and seasonal amounts have been computed for individual stations as the average of the standard values of annual and seasonal amounts available 3 years anomaly values. Estimates of annual or seasonal variables anomalies were obtained by averaging the annual or seasonal by 12 or 3 respectively. For detecting and attributing 3 simulation signals (ALL, GHG and NAT) selected from Canadian General Circulation Model (CanESM2.0) of CMIP5 archive subcategories. Space–time series of observations and model simulated variables responses to external forcings (the “signals”) first have been compared qualitatively by computing correlation coefficients between observations and simulations. This simple method does not optimize the signal-to-noise ratio nor provide a quantitative measure of the magnitude of model simulated response relative to that in the observations. Nevertheless, it provides an easy-to-understand view of the similarity between observed and model-simulated changes. Optimal detection and attribution analysis very often requires a reduction of dimensionality. This is typically done by projecting both observations and simulations onto leading empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of internal variability and using the residual consistency check to determine the number of EOFs to be retained in the analysis. To produce internal variability for residual test and consistency, Pi-Ctrl Runs have been used. The Preindustrial simulations have high volume, this subject complicates calculation therefore Experimental Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) have been used to reduce the Pi-Ctrl simulations volume and provide situations for Optimal Fingerprint. Optimal Fingerprint method is the best method for Detection and Attribution. Results have been obtained by this manner indicated Global Warming affected the study region by affecting on mean cumulative winter precipitation (0.88), mean spring minimum temperature (0.78) and mean summer maximum temperature (0.76). These numbers are the beta coefficient that named scaling factor. Although the scaling factor for the mean spring minimum temperature affected from GHG signal obtained (0.73), but the GHG forcing alone didn’t have a significant effect on the precipitation and maximum temperature. Also, NAT signal didn’t have significant effect on the region alone, too. The obtained results of this study indicate the earlier studies, such as Wan et al, 2014.
Key words: Climate change, Detection, Attribution, Optimal Fingerprint, Hillsides of Central Southern Alborz Mountains
Mr Sayyed Mahmoud Hosseini Seddigh, Dr Masoud Jalali, Dr Teimour Jafarie,
Volume 8, Issue 1 (5-2021)
Volume 8, Issue 1 (5-2021)
Abstract
Study changes and spatial pattern seasonal of outgoing long wave radiation in IRAN
Introduction
Changes in OLR can be considered as a critical indicator of climate change and hazard; studies have shown that since 1985, long-range radiation has increased the output of the Earth and is a cause of increased heat in the troposphere. This has led to an increase in drought and a slight decrease in the cloud in the upper terposphere, as well as an increase in Hadley's rotation toward higher latitudes. On the other hand, clouds play an important role in the long-wave changes of the Earth's output and are adequately evaluated at the global energy scale at all spatial and temporal scales.
Data and methods
In the present study, in order to calculate the variability and the pattern of seasonal spatial dependence of the long-range radiation output of Iran, OLR data from 1974 to 1976 were daily updated from the NCEP / NCAR databases of the National Oceanic and Oceanographic Organization of the United States of America. To calculate Iran's long-range output radiation, in the Iranian atmosphere (from 25 to 40 degrees north and 42.5 to 65 degrees east), using Grads and GIS software. First, the general characteristics of the earth's long wave were investigated. To obtain an overview of the spatial status of the seasonal changes of the long-wave and its variability over the country, the average maps and coefficients of the long-wave variations of the earth's output were plotted in the spring, summer, fall, and winter seasons. In this study, the slope of linear regression methods using mini tab software was used for trend analysis. Hotspot analysis uses Getis-Ord Gi statistics for all the data.
Explaining the results
The results of this study showed that the mean of long wave in Iran is 262.3 W/m2. The highest mean long-range radiation output in spring, autumn, and winter is related to latitudes below 30 degrees north, especially in the south and south-east of Iran, with the highest mean in autumn and winter with wavelengths. High output 282-274 W/m2 as well as spring with mean W/m2 295-291 below latitude 27.5° C, which is in Sistan and Baluchestan provinces, south and southeast of Fars. Hormozgan has also been observed; the lowest OLR average in these seasons is observed above latitude 30 ° N in the northwestern provinces with the lowest mean in the season Yew and winter with mean long wavelength output 213-225 W/m2 and also observed in spring with mean 226-235 W/m2 at latitude 37.5 ° C and latitude 44 ° N in Maku and Chaldaran Is. In summer, the highest OLR averages of 316-307 W/m2 are observed in east of Iran with centralization of Zabol, Kavir plain and Tabas desert as well as west of Iran in Kermanshah, Khuzestan and Ilam provinces, with central length The latitude is 47.50 degrees north and latitude 32/32 east in Ilam province in the city of Musian, due to desertification, saltwater and sand, as well as the absence of high clouds, indicating an increase in the frequency of earthquakes and It is a drought that will lead to shortage of rainfall and increased rainfall in these areas; the lowest average long-range radiation output in summer with W/m2 235-226 extends as a narrow strip from southeast to Chabahar and extends to the middle Zagros highlands in Chaharmahal Bakhtiari province and northwest areas in Maku, Chaldaran, Khoi, Jolfa, Marand, Varzegan, Kalibar, Parsabad, Ahar and Grammy cities. It has also been observed in the northern coastal provinces of Iran including Mazandaran, Gilan, Astara, Talesh, Namin. According to the trend of long-wave radiation output of Iran increased by 0.16 W/m2 and decreased by 0.37 W / m2 with increasing latitude. Seasonal trends indicate that 100 percent of the country has a significant increase in winter and no significant fall in autumn. 21.24% in summer and 18.35% in spring have no significant decreasing trend, which in south-east includes Sistan and Baluchestan, Kerman, Fars and Hormozgan provinces and 78.76% in summer and 81.65% in summer. Spring has a significant non-significant upward trend. The spatial dependence of the hot spots on Iran's long-wave radiation at 90, 95 and 99% confidence levels is 45.49% in spring, 37.57 in autumn, and 44.55% in winter. The high wave radiation of summer is 42.2%, which is observed in north of Sistan and Baluchestan province with central Zabul and in east of Lot and Tabas desert and in west of Ilam province with central of Musian. But in spring, autumn and winter in the south and southeast of the country including Sistan and Baluchestan, Hormozgan, Kerman, South Fars, Bushehr provinces and in central Iran including Lot Plains, Desert and Salt Lake and Tabas sandy desert. It is also observed in western Iran in Ilam province, so that these areas correspond to the tropical belt at latitude 30 degrees north. This is due to its location in the subtropical region, the low latitude of Iran, especially south and southeast to central Iran including Lut Plain, Desert and Tabas Desert due to its proximity to the equator, the angle of sunlight is higher and perpendicular. Spun. The spatial dependence of cold spots on long-wave radiation at 90, 95 and 99% confidence levels in spring is 33.44%, autumn is 41.41% and in winter is 44.55%. Cold spots of long-wave radiation are 25.5% in the summer, located at latitudes above 35 ° N in the subtropical belt and include northeast areas in North Khorasan Province in the cities of Bojnourd, Esfarain, Jajarm, Mane and Semlaghan, Safi Abad and northern coastal areas in Golestan, Mazandaran, Guilan, and northwestern provinces of Iran including Ardabil, East and West Azerbaijan, Qazvin and Zanjan North Tfaat Kvh¬Hay Zagros includes the provinces of Kurdistan, Hamedan, Markazi, Qom, Kermanshah North East part. Minimum OLR cold spot with average output longwave radiation of 213 W/m2 220 northwest of Khoy, Maku, Chaldaran, Jolfa and Marand can be an indicative role for determining convective activity and dynamic / frontal precipitation.
Keywords: Temporal and Spatial Variations-OLR-Spatial Index of Statistics Gi.
Mohammad Ali Zanganeh Asadi, Mahnaz Naemi Tabar,
Volume 8, Issue 1 (5-2021)
Volume 8, Issue 1 (5-2021)
Abstract
Relationship between hydrogeomorphic features and suspended sediment load under Kashfarud basins
Introduction
As a stressful stimulus, river sediment is the most significant threat to aquatic ecosystems. To prevent or minimize the damage, three stages of the erosion process should be investigated (Naseri et al., 2019: 83). Determining the amount of sediment transported by rivers is important from different aspects. Sediment carried by water flows is considered a factor effective in shaping the geometric structure and geomorphic characteristics of rivers (Tashekabood et al., 2019: 282).
Data and methodology
To estimate the amount of annual suspended sediments, the flow and sediment statistics of hydrometric stations (8 stations) and meteorological stations (13 stations) were employed (Figure 2). The research statistical period is 25 years (1993-2017). The altitude, area, and perimeter of the basins were obtained from topographic maps with a scale of 1.25000. To investigate the correlation between independent and dependent variables, the normality tests of Shapiro-Wilk and Kolmogorov-Smirnov were performed in SPSS16 software. To extract the geomorphic features of the basins, the digital elevation model was used. Then, ground surface corrections and pretreatments such as removal of hydrological pits were performed and ground drainage pattern was determined.
Stepwise multivariate regression
In the present study, stepwise multivariate regression was used to reduce the number of independent variables and determine the effective factors in the sedimentation of the basin. This method investigates the effect of several independent variables on a dependent variable (Zare Chahuki: 2010). In stepwise multivariate regression, the independent variable that has no more significant effect on the dependent variable is removed from the analysis, hence excluded from the equation. The general form of the stepwise regression equation is:
Equation 1 Y= a + B1X1 + B2X2 + …… + BnXn + e
Data description and interpretation
The principal component analysis method was used to determine the most effective characteristics of sediments as well as their grouping. In principal component analysis, variables that have a high correlation and are distributed in a multidimensional space are reduced to a set of non-correlated components, each of which is a linear combination of the main variables. The obtained non-correlated components are called principal components (PCs). Prior to component analysis, the KMO coefficient was used to ensure the appropriateness of the data for principal component analysis. This coefficient fluctuates in the range of zero and one and if its value is less than 0.5, the data will not be suitable for principal component analysis and if the values of this coefficient are between 0.5-0.69, The proportionality of the data is moderate and if the value of this coefficient is more than 0.7, the data will be quite suitable for performing principal component analysis.
Regression analysis results
In this study, the sediment weight of the basin was considered as a dependent variable and other parameters as independent variables. The variables of slope, precipitation, basin length, Elongation Ratio (R), circularity coefficient, and unevenness of the basin have a higher correlation with the amount of sediment production in the basin than other variables.
An eigenvalue was used to determine the number of factors. The minimum eigenvalue for the selection of final factors is 1, and factors with an eigenvalue bigger than 1 are considered final factors. The results showed that the three factors of circularity coefficient, compactness coefficient, and basin form coefficient have an eigenvalue bigger than 1.
Conclusion
The results showed that geomorphic parameters have a high correlation with the amount of annual sediment. The results showed that seven factors of slope, precipitation, basin length, elongation ratio, circularity coefficient, unevenness coefficient, and form ratio of the basin were the most important in estimating the amount of suspended sediment based on the principal components analysis method. The average of special sediment varies from 134 tons per year in Dehbar basin to 16 tons per year in Kardeh basin and also the average annual sediment varies from 261.6 tons per year in Golmakan basin to 156.7 tons per year in Shandiz basin. Evaluation of Bartlett's test of sphericity tests and KMO values is 0.9. Therefore, the data is suitable for factor analysis. The percentage of variance explained by each factor indicates that the circularity coefficient with 50.71% of the variance explains all the research variables. In total, three factors of circularity coefficient, compactness coefficient, and form ratio of the basin could explain 82.6% of the variance of all research variables. Therefore, the results are consistent with Lu et al. (1991), Sarangi et al. (2005), Tamene et al. (2006), Zhang et al. (2015), Salim (2014), and Ares et al. (2016).
Khorram Dareh sub-basin with heavy rainfall (504 mm) has the lowest specific sediment, which is due to the geological structure of the region. Based on the calculated indicators, most of the studied sub-basins are elongated. The form ratio of the basin is less indicative of the elongation of the basin. The highest branching ratio of the basins is in the vicinity of faults. Also, high circularity values indicate points prone to sedimentation. River sections up to degree 3 are located in more subdued areas and have a steeper slope. Golmakan, Khorram Darreh, Zashk, and Dehbar sub-basins have a high potential for sedimentation. Regression equations of sediment measurement curves are usually used in sediment load estimates. The most important reason is the ease of application of these equations. According to the research results, it can be concluded that the integrated use of principal component analysis, cluster analysis, and multivariate stepwise regression has a suitable and acceptable efficiency in estimating suspended sediments. Testing the regression model concerning different climatic and hydrological regimes of Iran’s watersheds to achieve an efficient pattern of using these equations can be fruitful in estimating sediment load in different regions.
Keywords: Hydrogeomorphic, Sediment erosion, Kashfarud basin, Stepwise multivariate regression
Mohammad Javad Barati, Manuchehr Farajzadeh Asl, Reza Borna,
Volume 8, Issue 1 (5-2021)
Volume 8, Issue 1 (5-2021)
Abstract
Evaluation of SADFAT model performance in daily forecast of Land Surface Temperature in the city of Tehran
Abstract
The high spatial and temporal limitations of TIR images for use in urban climatology have been identified as a current scientific challenge. Therefore, the use of Data Fusion Algorithms in Remote Sensing has been considered. In the old methods, two bands of one sensor were used for Data Fusion. In these methods, a panchromatic band was used to increase spatial accuracy, so only spatial resolution was increased. To solve this problem, the Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (STARFM) was used to integrate the images of two Landsat and Modis gauges to increase the spatial and temporal resolution of the reflection. but, this algorithm is designed for pixels and unmixing areas that are the same in Modis and Landsat pixels. The use of this model was not suitable for urban areas with a different of landuse. Therefore, the Enhanced STARFM model (ESTARFM) was developed. The ESTARFM model was improved in 2014 to predict thermal radiation and LST, taking into account the annual temperature cycle and the unevenness of the earth's surface, and the SADFAT model was introduced.
In this study, the performance of SADFAT model in the use of OLI spatial resolution and MODIS temporal resolution in LST forecast in urban areas was examined. The metropolis of Tehran has different surface covers and multiple microclimates. So if the algorithm works successfully, This model can be used in other cities to improve urban heat island studies. The inputs for the algorithm are thermal radiance of Modis and Landsat images, the red and near infrared band of Landsat for daily production of LST in 2017 in the city of Tehran. The algorithm uses two pairs of Modis and Landsat images at the same time and sets of Modis images at the time of prediction and then calculate the conversion coefficient for relating the thermal radiance change of a mixed pixel at the coarse resolution to that of a fine resolution. In this way, LST is generated in areas with a variety of landuse.
All the estimated pixels were compared to the base image pixels in that range to evaluate the results of the model. The comparison results for the autumn days with the average correlation coefficient of 0.86 and RMSE equal to 0.122, showed that the model has the highest accuracy in this season and in other seasons with the average correlation coefficient of 0.76 and RMSE about 0.4, has provided good accuracy.
Visual interpretation of the results of SADFAT showed that this model is able to accurately predict the LST of the land cover in different surface coatings and even in areas where one or more urban land uses are mixed in one MODIS pixel.
However, the borders are well separated and the features are not combined. Although the boundaries are clearly defined, in some land uses, the predicted LST is somewhat higher than the observational image.
Landsat and Modis satellites pass through an area with a small time difference, so they are suitable for combining with each other. But in predicting reflectance with the SADFAT algorithm, there are systematic and variable errors that we need to be aware of in order to increase the output accuracy. One of the systematic and unavoidable errors is the instability of the Terra and Aqua satellites passing through at any point, ie at each satellite pass, the location of the study area in Swath and the size of the pixel changes. Due to the distance of the study area from the vertical center of measurement on the ground (Nadir), the amount of this error varies on different days and should be checked for each day. The preventable error is the sudden change in one or more images used (16 days of the same pass time interval for Landsat) is high for estimating surface reflectance with spatial and temporal resolution. These changes may be due to human factors such as air pollution or natural factors. Natural factors such as clouds and dust storms are the main sources of error in using the SADFAT model because they are sudden and temporary and cover a wide area. The occurrence of these two factors has a great impact on reflectance. Therefore, a sudden change in these factors, in one or more images, causes a large error in the calculations.
The study also found minor spatial errors in the prediction, so that even on days when the results were better, points were observed where the values in the predicted LST images did not match exactly with the OLI sensor. The reason for this may be due to changes in vegetation. Although there are some systematic and variable errors in the images and the implementation of the algorithm The results of this study showed that the performance of this model is reliable for predicting the daily LST with a spatial resolution of 30 meters in Tehran.
This method is able to support urban planning activities related to climate change in cities, so it is recommended that its performance be examined separately for different land cover in the city and the efficiency of this algorithm be evaluated with other sensors such as Copernicus Sentinels.
Key words: Spatial and Temporal Data Fusion, SADFAT, Heat island, LST, Urban climatology
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