Journal of Spatial Analysis

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Abstract
Introduction
Vulnerability is the limitation of a society to a risk and to dominate it for all physical, economic, social and political factors, which adversely affects the ability of the community to respond to those events. An earthquake is a natural phenomenon that will be irreversibly damaged. It has caused severe humanitarian earthquakes in the minds of a compilation of an infrastructure program to reduce the risks and damage caused by it. The country's geostationary characteristics have suggested earthquakes as one of the most destructive factors in the destruction of human life. Historical surveys show that vast areas of our country suffered financial and financial losses due to this natural disaster. According to the United Nations, in 2003, Iran ranked first in the number of earthquakes with a high intensity of 5.5 millimeters among the countries of the world.
Earthquake is a natural hazard that often causes too many losses and casualties. Iran is  country with a lot of earthquakes and  and Khorasan Razavi province which is studied in this study also experiences a large number of this natural hazard and 71% of the surface area of this province is in the range of medium, high and too high hazard of earthquake. One of the important sectors in which the effect of the earthquake damage very large is power transmission lines. Transmission of oil and gas products by pipelines is one of the most appropriate, inexpensive, fast and reliable methods. These lines are mostly buried in terms of safety and social considerations. In engineering collections, such structures are considered as vital arteries. Due to the fact that pipelines are spreading widely, therefore, due to the vulnerability of the transmission lines, it can damage the economy of the country.
 
Methodology
 In this study the vulnerability of the network lines of power transmission of Khorasan Razavi province against earthquake were studied.  The aim of the present study was applicable and method of study was descriptive-analytic. To prepare a map of the extent of the vulnerability, the fuzzy gamma method was used. Effective parameters for this research include proximity to a fault line, geological structure, land slope, population density of urban and rural areas, distance from the communication lines. One of the most important fuzzy operators for overlapping indices is the GAMMA operator. Gamma operator is the general mode of multiplication and addition operators.
 
 

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Introduction
Dust storms as one of the environmental hazards of the arid regions of the globe, including the southern, southwestern, eastern and central parts of Iran, has caused many environmental problems that confirm the need for studying and crisis managing its in scientific and executive congresses. Therefore, the present study attempts to evaluate the effects of climate elements on temperature, precipitation, humidity, evapotranspiration and vegetation index on the frequency of dust storms in Yazd province during the period of 5 years (2009-2014).
 
Data and Methodology
So, after determining the synoptic stations of the area, the dust data were extracted based on the code of the present weather phenomena and the values of the climatic elements. In the next step, their spatial zonation was determined through the interpolation method. Then, using the MODIS images, EVI index data were calculated according to the principle of time matching. Finally, a variety of simple and multiple regression models were fitted to estimate the occurrence frequency of dust, and the most appropriate relationships with higher preference values were reported.
 
Findings and Conclusions
The results showed that there was a significant relationship between the total dust with evapotranspiration and relative humidity with a R square of 0.973 and 0.614 and the standard deviation of 24.104 and 92.477 at sig. level of 99% and 95%. Also, there is the maximum significant relation between external dust with evapotranspiration and relative humidity with a R square 0.968 and 0.621, and the standard deviation was estimated to be 0.173 and 75.427 at sig. level of 99% and 95%, respectively. Internal dusts with evapotranspiration and maximum temperature with a R square of 0.770 and 0.377 and standard deviation of 15.1751 and 64.22 have a significant relationship with sig. level of 95%. The results of the total, external and internal dust storms with climatic elements and vegetation cover showed a significant correlation with the R square of 0.994, 0.988 and 0.956 and the standard error of estimation of 18.13713, 24.2555551 and 10.49989 at sig. level of 99% and 95%, respectively, which indicates the systematic function of climatic elements and vegetation cover in the occurrence of dust.

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Today, the impact of climate is considered on the life, health, comfort, activity and behavior in a form of the branch of science   such as human biology. Due to difference of frequency people with each other, the sensibility of every one from weather can be different from the other one that's why the climate can’t be totally undesirable or the climate can be totally desirable for all the people, so we can say that all of climatic elements are affected on human comfort but the effect of some of them is quite cleared and the effect of the others is mild and sometimes invisible. The greatest effect on comfort and discomfort can be included temperature, humidity and solar radiation. The aim of this research is to investigate and determine    the area risk of climatic comfort. For this purpose, the temperature, precipitation and humidity data have been extracted for Khuzestan province form Esfarazi database. In this approach, first different properties of the temperature, precipitation and humidity for the area with climatic discomfort   have discussed   based on the conditional probability distribution. This study has been identified the areas of climatic comfort in Khuestan province using multivariate analysis (Cluster analysis and Discriminant analysis) and spatial autocorrelation pattern (Hot Spot index and Moran index) with an emphasis on architecture. The results showed that the risk area of climate comfort is included mostly  of  the western parts of  Khuzestan province namely the border areas with Iraq and some parts of  southern  of  province .On the other hand ,trend analysis the  range of this area to climatic discomfort indicated that it has increased significantly  in  recent periods .The results also  showed that  the local distribution of   precipitation  in all periods in the areas of climatic discomfort  has  been   a high  the coefficient of  variations.

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Abstract
Seismic potential investigation of Tehran as the capital of Iran is an essential issue because their accumulation around a fault may indicate its seismic potential. Stress trajectories for this estimate are useful. In this research, fault slip data is used for paleo stress analysis. Base on that, the study area divided into 6 stable stress regions and the mean stress tensor related to each region determined. Then the mean stress tensor rotated based on Anderson’s theory representing a compressional tectonic regime. The Stress trajectory map drew based on rotated mean stress tensor acting on the regions during geological time. The resulted map showed the arrangement of sigma1 trajectories in the area obeyed the overall tectonic regime in Iran and limited converge through the junction ignoring addition in stress magnitude and seismic hazard in the junction of major faults.
Given the importance of Tehran as the political-economic capital of the country, and its location in Alborz Basin with high faults density. and due to the seismic background of the area, the necessity of seismic risk assessment in this area becomes more evident. In this research, we have attempted to produce and present a map of faults in the Tehran wide area, focusing on faults in the eastern part of Tehran, Mamlouk, Ghasre Firozeh and the margins, with accurate structural elements and drawing of the stress trajectories, convergence of the trajectories, and stress accumulation at convergence sites, assess seismic hazard at this location based on longitudinal stress data (Katsushi Sato, 2011; Yamada and Yamaji, 2002; Yamaji, 2000; Sippel et al., 2009).
Based on field observations and data collected, scratch faults were selected for collecting and analysis of longitudinal paleo stresses as they record all deformation stages. After collecting the fault data, we stabilized them using the Multiple Inverse Method (MIM) and zone boundaries, and by drawing a Mohr's circle (without scale) for each range, seismic potential analysis was performed (Katsushi Sato, 2011; Yamada and Yamaji, 2002; Yamaji, 2000; Sippel et al., 2009).
To separate the stress phases, obtain the reduced stress tensor, obtain different stress and stress parameters, and plot the stress trajectories, the study area had to be divided into smaller ranges. It is not possible to determine the size of the stress components and the principal stresses by longitudinal stress methods and it is not possible to draw a scaled circle. Therefore, it is possible to draw a circle without scales for fault data only. This circle enables the overall analysis of the field shape, the arrangement of the data in the graph, and the comparison of the relative components of the fault data stress. By the Mohr's circle (without scale) method, the principal minimum stress and the maximum stress difference (s₁ - s₃) are considered as base (0) and unit (1), respectively, and assume the same size with respect to the relation (F = (s₂ - s₃) / (s₁ - s₃)) between the calculation of the middle stress field shape and the field shape factor. Studies show that tensile tectonic structures are not dominant structures in the region. For the kinetic analysis of fault data, precise rock mechanics such as the internal friction angle and the Amonton-Columbus criterion cannot be used precisely. But given the arrangement of the fault data, a large degree of comparison can be made between the kinetic features and especially the fault dynamics of each range. Therefore, the main maximum stress must be horizontal. Assuming that all the faults are coherent and based on Anderson's theory of faulting that the main minimum stress is vertical in the compressive stress regime, the position of the principal stress axes of each range is returned to the conditions of the fault formation (vertical minimum stress). In all ranges, the principal minimum stress is near vertical. After rotation of the data and the vertical axis of the minimum stress was set, the trajectory maps were drawn for horizontal stresses (main and maximum stresses).
A study based on longitudinal stress studies and Andersen's theory introduces the main maximum stress trend N017E, which is in good agreement with the general crustal shortening trend of the Central Alborz (Vernant et al., 2004). Therefore, the major faults of the region do not have a significant impact on the disturbance of the stress field within the region and, in fact, the convergence of these faults does not lead to the convergence of stress trajectories. The positioning of the poles of the fault plates on the main stress plates indicates that along with the crustal deformation in this part of Alborz, the regional structures have been rotated and decomposed. In fact, the reason for the polarization of fault plates on the main stress sheets with zero shear stress is that the rotation and positioning of faults coincide with the rotation and deformation of other geological structures and phenomena such as folds and joints. The arrangement of the poles of the fault plates in the Mohr's circle indicates that the faults in zone 3 have less dynamic potential than elsewhere.
Keywords: Stress Trajectory, Multiple Inverse Method, Convergent Faults, Seismic Hazard, Mamlouk, Ghasre Firouzeh.
 

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Analysis and zoning of thermal physiological stresses in Iran
 
Abstract
Human health is influenced by weather variables in all circumstances, including atmospheric pressure, humidity and temperature around them. Based on climate hazard and climate changes, different parts of human life and economic and social strategies such as health, hydrological pollutants And agriculture had a profound effect, including the discussion of the effects of thermal stress on human health over the last few decades, and has become a major issue in the world's scientific circles. Heat and cold stresses, the exposure of humans to extreme heat and cold, are part of the extreme events, often encountered by people during daily activities or in the workplace, and affecting human physical activities. It is important that, if the body is not cooled through transpiration or cooling mechanism, severe deaths are inflicted on human health; therefore, the person has to reduce his activity in order to reduce the adverse effects of heat stress. Hence, many researchers consider the thermal stress component more important than other components in assessing human health.
In this study, using the physiological equivalent thermometer of PET thermal stress assessment and zoning of human thermal physiological stresses in Iran, with the length of the common statistical period from 1959 to 2011, and for the arsenal of thermal physiological stresses of Iran Forty stations have been used as representatives of Iranian cities. To calculate the physiological equivalent thermal temperature, all the effective meteorological elements in the human energy bill are measured at an appropriate height of climate biology, such as 1/5 meters above the Earth's surface. Data on climatic elements are provided by the Meteorological Organization of Iran. In the absence of data for some courses, linear regression method was used to reconstruct these missing data. After calculating the indices, the frequencies were also monitored and finally, using the GIS technique, the Kriging method of the study area was based on the frequency of occurrence of the indicators. Therefore, in order to achieve the results and objectives of the present study, software such as SPSS for data normalization as well as missing data was analyzed and analyzed using Ray Man's model based on meteorological elements to calculate the equivalent thermal physiological temperature of humans. Also, using the GIS software and Ordinary Kriging method, the best interpolation method was used to zon the human cysiological stresses.
Today, in the planning of human health and comfort, the study of the physiological thermal stress plays an important role. In this regard, weather conditions can be used in the long-term planning of climate and in the short term planning of atmospheric conditions. In the present study, using the thermophysical Thermal Equivalent Thermal Index (PET), the climate climatic Atlas of Iran was prepared on a monthly basis. Calculated values for 40 stations in the country with a total statistical period of 52 years (1959-2011) were prepared. The results of this study showed that the spatial distribution of the physiological equivalent thermal temperature index in the country follows the altitudes, roughness and latitude. Accordingly, the low values of the indicator, which relate to the stresses of the cold, are consistent with the high and mountainous regions as well as the high latitudes, and vice versa, the thermal stresses occur in low and low elevations, as well as low latitudes, which of course, severe heat stresses occurred in the summer. Because throughout this season, the entire country of Iran is dominated by high tidal altitudes at high and low levels of ground pressure (1000 hp) with its warm and dry air, causing extreme heat and The term effects of heat waves on humans, heat loss, thermal contraction of the muscles and skin dryness, infectious or skin diseases, inflammation, sunburn, dizziness, fatigue, and mortality due to an increase in allergies can be mentioned. Significant differences in the environmental conditions of the mountainous masses of Kerman, Yazd and Sistan and Baluchestan provinces with their surrounding areas or low and low northern areas, and especially the Moghan Plain and Sarakhs plain, located in the upper latitudes of the country The issue is that the role of elevation in spatial distribution of the country's climate is much more colorful than factors such as latitude and longitude. The results of the analysis of the monthly thermal physiological stress maps showed that in terms of the area without tension, the march of the month with 47/8% of the area (778424/2km²) is in the first place and has the most favorable environmental conditions, The moon with 43/5 percent of the area (709275/2km²) is in the second position and also in March with 22.6 (359128/9km²) in the third, August and the last month. The highest thermal stresses (29

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Analysis of the Characteristics of Sultry Days in Iran
 
Extended Abstract
Sultry phenomenon occurs due to the combined effect of high temperature and humidity. Sultry intensity increases with increasing relative humidity and decreases with decreasing temperature. This phenomenon has a tremendous impact on comfort and other human activities. Various indices have been used to study this phenomenon in Iran and in the world. According to previous studies, and as far as information is concerned, there has not been a comprehensive study across Iran on the characteristics of sultry days based on degree of severity. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the frequency, duration and severity of sultry days and its temporal and spatial analysis throughout Iran.
To do this research, daily temperature, relative humidity and partial water vapor pressure of 101 synoptic stations were used for a 28-year period (1987-2014). In choosing the indices of sultriness, the goal was to select indices that show the sultry state on a daily scale. For this purpose, in the first stage, 16 empirical sultry or sultry-related indices were used, all of which used climatic parameters such as temperature, relative humidity, water vapor pressure and cloudiness to calculate the sultry state or comfort. Among them, 13 indices were eliminated because they surveyed the phenomenon on a monthly or annual basis or were not consistent with the objectives of this study. Finally, according to the objectives of the study, three indices were chosen: 1- Sultry Intensity Index (Lancaster-Carstone empirical equation), 2- Partial Water Vapor Pressure Index (partial water vapor pressure equal to or greater than 18.8 hPa), and 3- Heat Index (HI).
The results of this study showed that two indices of Sultry Intensity and Partial Water Vapor Pressure are suitable for explaining the conditions in Iran and their outputs are not significantly different. But Heat Index did not lead to desirable results. According to the results of the Sultry Intensity Index, the sultry phenomenon is not comprehensive in the country and is limited to 21 stations adjacent to the Caspian Sea coasts in the north (besides Parsabad Moghan Station) and the Persian Gulf coasts (besides Ahwaz station) and the Oman Sea coasts in the south. In other parts of the country, due to their internal and leeward position, being away from moisture sources, poverty or lack of vegetation and insufficient penetration of wet and rainy systems, there is no sultry condition and, on average, even one day is not seen with sultry circumstances. On the southern coasts, on average, sultry conditions begin on April 3 and end on November 16. Therefore, in this area, 7 months and 11 days of the year have sultry conditions. This is natural due to the lower latitude and the Azores high pressure sovereignty in the south. But on the northern coasts, the sultry period is shorter and with a 48-day delay compared with the southern coasts, the average sultry day begins on May 22 and ends on October 12. Therefore, the duration of the sultry period is on average 4 months and 19 days. In terms of the number of sultry days, the most frequencies belong to the southern coasts stations. The largest number of sultry days related to the Chabahar port on the coasts of the Oman Sea with 291 days, followed by Jask port with 264 days. The lowest number of sultry days is also from Ahwaz station with 1 day and then Mahshahr port with 42 days. Among the stations on the southern coasts, the Oman Sea stations compared with the Persian Gulf stations have more sultry days due to lower latitudes, Azores high pressure sovereignty and Southeast Asian monsoon moisture influence. In contrast, the number of sultry days on the northern coasts is much lower and averages 140 to 150 days a year. Sultry severity is also less, so that there are no extreme severe sultry days in any of the stations on the northern coasts. But the number of extreme sultry days is remarkable on the coasts of the South, to 160 days in the port of Chabahar and 111 days in the port of Jask. At Parsabad Moghan in the north and port of Mahshahr in the south, due to distance from the coast and lack of sufficient moisture, the duration and severity of sultry is much lower and there are basically no days of severe and extreme sultry states. The annual trend of the number of sultry days at any station is not significant.
 
Keywords: Sultry, Temperature, Relative Humidity, Sultry Indices, Iran
 
 

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Flood susceptibility mapping using frequency ratio and weight of evidence technique: a case study of Kermanshah Province
 
abstract
Flood is considered as one of the most destructive natural disasters worldwide, because of claiming a large number of lives and incurring extensive damage to the property, disrupting social fabric, paralyzing transportation systems, and threatening natural ecosystems. Flood is one of the most devastating natural disasters causing massive damages to natural and man-made features Flood is a major threet to human life (injure or death of man and animal life), properties (agricultural area, yield production, building and homes) and infrastructures (bridges, roads, railways, urban infrastructures). The damage thet can occur due to such disaster leads to huge economic loss and bring pathogens into urban environments thet causes microbial development and diseases Therefore, the assessment and regionalization of flood disaster risks are becoming increasingly important and urgent. Although it is a very difficult task to prevent floods, we can predict and compensate for the disaster. To predict the probability of a flood, an essential step is to map flood susceptibility.
The methodology of the current research is includes the following steps:
Flood inventory mapping;
Determination of flood-conditioning factors;
Modeling flood susceptibility and its validations.
 Et first , 146 flood locations were identified in the study area. Of these, 102 (70%) points were randomly selected as training data and the remaining 44 points (30%) cases were used for the validation purposes. In the next step 1 flood-conditioning factors were prepared including geology, landuse , distance from river , soil , slope angle, plan curvature, topographic wetness index, Drainage density elevation, rainfall. Then, the probability of the flood occurring for each class of parameters was calculated. Et the end, the obtained weights for each class in the Geographical Information System (GIS) were applied to the corresponding layer and flood risk map of th studied region was prepared. Subsequently, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were drawn for produced flood susceptibility maps.
To determine the level of correlation between flood locations and conditioning factors, the FR
method was used. The results of spatial relationship between the flood location and the conditioning factors using FR model is shown in Table 2. In general, the FR value of 1 indicates
an average correlation between flood locations and effective factors. If the FR value would be larger than 1, there is a high correlation, and a lower correlation equals to the FR value lower than 1.
The analysis of FR for the relationship between flood location and lithology units indicates thet Cenozoic group has the highest FR value. In the case of land-use, it can be seen thet the residential areas and agriculture land-use have values. One of the most important factors affecting the flood is distance from the river. The results showed thet the class of >500 m FR was the most effective one. The analysis of FR for the relationship between flood location and slope angle indicate thet class 0-6. 1 has the highest FR value. In the case of slope aspect, flood event is most abundant on flet and East facing slopes According to the analysis of FR for the relationship between flood location and plan curvature, flet shape has the highest FR value., A flet shape retains surface run-off for a longer period especially during heavy rainfall . Flood locations are concentrated in areas with a TWI >6. 8 drainage density > 4. 6 km/km2 and altitude classes of 1200 m. In the soil layer, the tallest weight is from the earth with a small transformation of gravel. Finally, the maximum weight is the maximum rainfall.
In this study, all parameters of WofE model were calculated for each conditioning factor. In the lithology unit, the Cenozoic class has the highest flood susceptibility. Among the different land-use types, agriculture categories had the highest values . The distance from the river from 0 to 1000 m indicated positive influence in flooding, while the areas more than 1000 m or far from the river represented the negative correlation with flood occurrence. In the soil layer, clayey soil and tuberous soil had the highest weight. The analysis of WofE for the relationship between flood occurrence and slope angle indicated thet slope angle from 0 to 6. 21 had positive influences in flooding. In the case of slope aspect and plan curvature, flet area had a strong positive correlation with flood occurrence. Effectiveness increases wit increasing TWI classes. The results of drainage density indicate thet areas with higher drainage densities are more susceptible to flood occurrence. By increasing the height of the flooding reduced sensitivity classes. byn flooding rainfall and flood events increased with increasing rainfall.
 
The prediction accuracy and quality of the development model were examined using the area under the curve (AUC). Specifically, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to examine the basis of the assessment is true and false positive rates . So the results showed thet based on the area under the curve, the FR and WofE models show similar results and can be used as a simple tool for verifying the map prepared for flood sensitivity and reducing its future risks.
Floods are the most damaging catastrophic phenomena in the worldwide. Therefore, flood susceptibility mapping is necessary for integrated watershed management in order to have sustainable development. In this study, flood susceptibility zones have been identified using FR and WofE methods. Et first step, a flood inventory map containing 146 flood locations was prepared in the kermanshah Province using documentary sources of Iranian Water Resources Department and field surveys. Then, eleven data layers (lithology, landuse, distance from rivers, soil texture, slope angle, slope aspect, plan curvature, topographic wetness index, drainage density, and altitude) were derived from the spatial database. Using the mentioned conditioning factors, flood susceptibility maps were produced from map index calculated using FR and WofE models, and the results were plotted in ArcGIS. Finally, the AUC-ROC curves using validation dataset were prepared for the two models to test their accuracy. For this reason, of 146 identified flood locations, 102 (70%) cases were used as training data and the remaining 44(30%) was used for validation. The validation of results indicated thet the FR and WofE models had almost similar and reasonable results in the study area. Based on the overall assessments, the proposed approaches in this study were concluded as objective and applicable. The scientific information derived from the present study can assist governments, planners, and engineers to perform proper actions in order to prevent and mitigate the flood occurrence in the future.
 
Key words: Flood susceptibility mapping, validation, method of frequency, weight of evidence, GIS- Kermanshah
 
 

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Simulation of floodplain zones in Tehran's metropolitan watershed (case study: Kaan basin)
Ezaatollah Ghanavati, Associate prof. Geographical science faculty, Kharzmi University
Ali Ahmmadabadi. Assistance prof. Geographical science faculty, Kharzmi University
Negar Gholami, MA in Geomorphology, Geographical science faculty, Kharzmi University
Extended abstract
Floodplains and adjacent rivers are always at risk from flood events due to their specific circumstances. Flood prone area identification in the watersheds is one of the basic solutions for destructive flood control and mitigation. Flood mapping is one of the best methods for flood prone area planning and identifying. Considering the importance of flood hazard, it is important to understand the role of uncertainty and incorporate that information in flood hazard maps. The hydrodynamic modeling approach is suitable for accounting various uncertainties, and thus lends itself to creating probabilistic floodplain maps. For  this purpose,  flow  boundary  conditions,  peak  instantaneous  discharge with  different  return  periods,  cross  sections and their distance and roughness coefficients for each cross section were entered to HEC-RAS hydraulic model in Kaan watershed  located  in  the Tehran  province,  Iran,  and  this model was  then  run  and  flood water surface profile at different return periods were estimated. In the Kaan Basin, most residential and agricultural lands are located in a very small distance from the river bed. The rapid growth of construction, human activities and land use change in the downstream of the basin have caused a change in the hydrological cycle and runoff production. Floodplain mapping using hydrodynamic models is difficult in data scarce regions. Additionally, using hydrodynamic models to map floodplain over large stream network can be computationally challenging. Some of these limitations of floodplain mapping using hydrodynamic modeling can be overcome by developing computationally efficient statistical methods to identify floodplains in large and ungauged watersheds using publicly.
The aim of this study is to determine flood areas within 20 kilometers of the Kaan River by using the HEC-RAS model and Arc GIS software to identify flood lands in different return periods.
The Kaan basin is located in the central Alborz Mountains. This basin is limited to south, north, east and the west respectively to Tehran, Jajrood Basin, Darakeh Basin and Karaj River Basin. The most important River in the area is the Kaan River and originated from high mountains.
Most commonly, the hydrodynamic modeling approach is used to create flood hazard maps corresponding to a rare high flood magnitude of 100-year return period or higher. Although this approach can provide very accurate floodplain maps, it is computationally demanding. As a result, the modeling approach to flood hazard mapping works well for individual streams, but its efficiency drops significantly when used to map floodplains over a large stream network. In this research, floodplain areas in the Kaan basin in return periods of 2 to 20 years are determined using the HEC-RAS model and the HEC-geoRAS extension. For this purpose, digital maps 1: 25000, DEM (10m), discharge values of Sulaghan Station, morphological characteristics of the river bed and cross sections have been used. Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) play a critical role in flood inundation mapping by providing floodplain topography as input to hydrodynamic models, and then enabling the mapping of the floodplain by using the resulting water surface elevations. Finally, the data is entered into the HEC-RAS software and analyzed. After determining the flood ranges in the various return periods at each cross-section, enter the results to the Arc GIS software and the flood zoning maps were obtained.
In this research roughness coefficients (Maning^,s coefficients) for each cross section were obtain be the
n= (nb+n1+n2+n3+n4) m                                                             (Eq.1)
Geological map and field observations have shown that the main difference between the widths of the valley in the study area is related to the type of rock. The results of the hydrodynamic model show that in the river upstream, the increase in discharge had led to the water level increase and expansion in the floodplain surfaces. But in the middle and low slopes in the downstream of the river, due to the reduced discharge, the river has a larger lateral extension and the flood areas are larger than the upstream of the river. Also, for a longer period of return, the discharge rate and the water level increase and the flood plain was more extensive. The results show that in the downstream of the basin due to instability the bed, existence of wide and eroded chanels, high ability in sedimentation, erosion of the channel bed, and low impact of vegetation, this section They can be restored and regenerated and constantly changing. Due to the location the Tehran-North high way from the Kaan basin, had the construction of roads and structures, the flood plain areas of the river should be fully observed or retrofitted.
 
Key words: Environmental hazards, Flood, Flood areas, Kaan River, HEC-RAS
 
 
 
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Evaluating and comparing the performance of Frequency ratio coefficient models and network analysis in Rock fall zoning
(A case study of Zanjan-Taham-Tarom Road)

Extended Abstract
One of the natural hazards of the collapse of rocks from the foothills of the mountains, causing great financial losses and loss of life. Especially when it comes to the path of communication. The rock fall is a rapid movement of a mass without cohesion in the powder or a mixture of soil and rock, so that the initial construction is not discernible, the level that occurs along that rupture it is often unclear. The falling stones of a mountain depend on several factors, which have the natural origin or origin of human origin. Natural factors influencing the fall can be rock factors, slopes and altitudes, geological structure, fault and slope of the geological layers, rainfall and temperature changes distance from the river, etc. human factors can also be referred to as road, land use and mining, destruction of vegetation, etc. in Iran, the collapse of rock parts on mountain roads causes massive loss of life and financial damage. Therefore, it is necessary to identify and classify the roads in terms of risk of suitable methods. In the north west of Iran it has mountainous topography and due to the state of tectonic and its seismic and climatic conditions, suitable conditions for landslide are provided in some domains. So, due to the fact that the area studied in the mountainous north - west region and the possession of all the crumbling conditions are very prone to collapse.
The research method is applicable in terms of practical purpose and the process of doing work on a combination of library and field methods. In this study, it has been used to determine the prone areas of collapse and zoning of anp models and frequency ratio. Two models that differ in terms of process and mechanism. In order to organize the research framework, first, a field study of the study area has been studied and the mathematical position of falling points is recorded with gps. Then, in order to model the mentioned models, the layers of GIs for the shape of the Georeferenced and digital were prepared. to provide the zoning layers of geology , slope and Aspect , elevation levels , land use and vegetation , fault , and land cover maps , annual temperature and precipitation , distance from the road , distance from the stream were used . The 20 m x 20 m contour line were originally prepared using the topography map of 1: 25,000 in the ArcGIS environment. Then, the contour line and Dem of the area were constructed. The slope and Aspect maps, elevation levels, Isothermal and isohyet map frost and stream network were created via Dem and meteorological data. Geological map and fault map were created using digital map 1: 100,000 Zanjan and map and vegetation map and road distance using Landsat 8 - 2017 OLI and ArcGIS images. To produce linear layers, the Distance function was used.
Using the statistical method, the frequency ratio and the network analysis method are using the landslide hazard zonation using the statistical method, the frequency ratio and analysis of network analysis to zoning the risk of falling by combination and sum of maps in class were low-risk to very high. From the tangible results of this study, the relationship between slope maps, elevation levels, rock material, Isothermal and isohyet is done. So that each side of the road had operated on the five factors that had happened. With regard to the output of the maps, the risk zones were high to very high for ANP models 14/17, 35/27 and FR 02/6, 35/14 percent. Ranges from high to very high with slopes between 40 and 80 percent and Sedimentary formations such as sandstone, siltstone with tuff layers, elevation levels 1,500 – 2300, Southern and Eastern slopes, Distance between 0 and 500 faults, Road and stream have adaptations . The changes in the percentage of area in both models show despite the difference in the size of the risk zones, Follow a similar process. To assess the zoning accuracy of these methods, two sets of quality and accuracy index (experimental probability) were used. The evaluation of the models showed that in the network analysis model, the indexes were 0.76 and 0.88, respectively, that the relation of frequency ratio coefficient model had optimal quality and accuracy.
In this research, various factors influencing the occurrence of rock falls on Zanjan-Taham-Tarom road were investigated. From there, mass movements such as rock fall on the roads act as a system, as a result, all factors play a role in the occurrence of such phenomena. But some elements have a more vibrant role. In the studied area, among the factors affecting lithology, slop, elevation levels, precipitation, temperature changes, number of freezing days and distance from the road and land use are more than other factors in the occurrence of rock fall. Assessing the quality and accuracy of zoning maps while confirming zoning accuracy showed that the network analysis method has better performance. The risk of collapse on Zanjan – taham- tarom road is always exists. Therefore, we need to use sustainable methods to reduce the risks. Domain stabilization methods are generally done in the form of mechanical, biological and bio-mechanical which, according to the long course of the road and the duration of the road, Mechanical methods such as unloading , embankment , drainage , use of separation walls as well as the use of  net Grid are suggested .
 
Keywords: Frequency ratio, Network analysis, Zanjan Road - Taham - Tarom
 
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An Analysis of Drought Researches in Iran
Extended Abstract:
  Iran is located the spatial geographical position in the south of the temperate region and north of the tropical region between the northern latitudes 40 to 25 degrees north and 65-44 degrees eastern along the seas, oceans and warm and great desert, on the other hand, with complex topography in the Alpine- Himalayas mountain belt (the world's largest mountain belt). These conditions have caused the climate of Iran to experience a variety of the prevailing natural hazards (33 of 43 world-wide risks). One of the natural hazards is the drought that happens over the Iranian plateau since the distant past, with the name of Dave of Drought, and so far. The Iranian plateau has undergone various drought periods over the past decades and various civilizations have faced this risk, and some of the Iranian ingenuity and management have emerged about this risk of the Iran. These include qanats, reservoirs built on commuter routes and cities, historical gardens, and so on. Today, this risk is dominant over the Plateau of Iran every year, and with increasing population and growth in different sectors and, in some cases to mismanagement, followed by a larger crisis called the water crisis and the crisis Economic-social, immigration, and so on. So, given the importance of the subject, different researchers have studied different aspects of this hazard. The fact is that in the past few decades, with the advent of computers and software and data, research has become easier and more scientific, naturally, in Iran, with these tools and data, researchers has been done on different parts of the crisis. What was the achievement of these studies, and most importantly, did the researchers contemplate a practical solution to the crisis on the Iranian plateau? This study provides an overview of past studies of drought and their achievements over the last few years.
In this study, used Four hundred and three of scientific articles were published in various journals to termed "drought" in the article titled of scientific information database (SID), one of the most important sources of internal research in Iran. The distribution of the time of research and distribution of various scientific fields that investigated the drought was identified. By studying the articles and the results from them, we found that 384 scientific articles with a specific output. Based on these findings, the frequency of articles in different fields of study was determined and analyzed.
researches of drought in the past years (1379 to 1391) had increasing trend and since 1394 has been decreas in Iran. The most drought research has been done in agricultural sciences with 166 papers from 403 papers (41.2%), geographic sciences with 118 papers (29.3%) and Medical and basic sciences and engineering sciences have the least research, 0.2, 2 and 5% respectively. 78% of the studies have examined the drought in different parts of Iran And 11 percent of the articles  evaluated the consequences of this  phenomenon. 7% of drought studies have predicted this phenomenon with different statistical models and 2.5% and 2% are dedicated to drought management and zoning  in different regions of Iran respectively. Most drought studies hase been in Iran, Khorasan, Fars, Sistan and Baluchestan, Tehran, Isfahan and Kermanshah, but in other parts of Iran, studies have also been conducted in different regions. Therefore, the drought phenomenon has been studied in all regions of Iran and drought assessments have been carried out.
The reduction of drought researches in recent years suggests that quantitative and qualitative research has been carried out in this basin before 1395, and drought has been studied and evaluated with different indicators in different regions of Iran. The reality of Iran's climate and research shows that every part of Iran experiences a drought phenomenon, which is an Inherent characteristic of the climate of Iran, that given the geographical location and atmospheric patterns affecting these latitudes on the planet. The consequences of drought have also been reflected in different parts of the environment, social, economic, and so on. As part of the newspapers has indicative of the damage to this climatic phenomenon in recent years. It seems that the dominant section of the phenomenon is associated with the unconscious and real perception of managers and people of this phenomenon (which has a cultural root). At present, the consequence of severe and droughts in recent decades is the lack of proper planning and environmental degradation and crisis in various parts of Iran's environment. On the other hand, the negative consequences of global warming for the climate of Iran and similar climates are more and more worrying. Therefore, it is essential to take practical and practical solutions instead of evaluations and mere studies. The practical solutions and the production of technology and operational program in relation to these environmental crises require group research in the sub-sectors with together. While, for example, engineers play the most role in controlling superficial fluid (water and dam), But the smallest drought- research related in this area. Therefore, the separate study of each part of these hazards is merely an evaluation and is not a practical way of solving the risk for managers and planners; For example, a water crisis requires a team of researchers such as hydrology, climateology, meteorology, agriculture, urban management, rural, etc. Of course, it should be noted that our researchers have not been trained and not accustomed to group work, and the idea of teamwork is poor in our culture; But there is no way and should start from one point. Perhaps we should start with kindergartens and elementary schools in order to find suitable solutions for at least the next 20 years, researcher’s teams. Finally, it is necessary to address the sustainable development and drought, localization of indicators, operational and management plans based on the environmental capabilities and knowledge of the native area of each region.
 
Keywords: Drought Research, Evaluation, Achievement, Iran.
 
 
 

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Determining Effective Factors on Forest Fire Using the Compound of Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline and Genetic Algorithm, a Case Study: Golestan, Iran   
Pahlavani, P., Assistant professor at School of Surveying and Geospatial Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran
Raei, A., PhD Candidate of GIS at School of Surveying and Geospatial Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran
Bigdeli, B., Assistant professor at School of Civil Engineering, Shahrood University of Technology
 
Keywords: Forest Fire, Multivariate adaptive regression spline, Multiple linear regression, Logistic regression, Genetic Algorithm.
 

1. Introduction

Nowadays, Determining the effective factors on fire is so important, because the plenty areas of forests around the world are destroyed annually by fire and recurrence of that in the long term can irreparably damage to the earth and its inhabitants. It helps us to identify most dangerous locations and times in forest fire. Hence, we can prevent many of driving factors of forest fire by law enforcement, efficient forest management policies and more supervision. In the current study, we identified the effective factors on the fire in Golestan forest through integration of three different methods including multiple linear regression, logistic regression and multivariate adaptive regression spline with Genetic Algorithm.

2. Study Area

Golestan Province is in the North of Iran and 18% of it is covered by forests. Golestan Province is a touristic province and several roads pass through its forests and according to statistical records, most of the occurred fires were in proximity of these roads. Our study area is located in 36°53′-37°25′N and 55°5′- 55°50′E and its area is about 3719.5 km2. We selected this area, because includes the most of fires have been occurred in Golestan Province in recent years.

3. Materials and Methods

A big fire was occurred on 12 December, 2010 in our study area and we used it as the dependent variable. The actual burnt area and some other data, such as Digital Elevation Model (DEM), the roads network, the rivers, the land uses, and soil types in the area were provided from Golestan Province Department of Natural Resources. Also, geographic coordination of the synoptic weather stations near the area and their data, including maximum, minimum, and mean temperature; total rainfall, as well as maximum wind speed and azimuth in December 2010 were obtained from National Meteorological Organization of Iran.
The land use and soil layers were in scale of 1:100000 and the roads and the rivers layers were in 1:5000 and all of them were provided in 2006. The region DEM is generated from topographic maps of Iran National Cartographic Center in scale of 1:25000 with positional resolution of 30m and we produced the slope and the aspect layers from it in ArcGIS software with the same resolution. The roads and the rivers were in vector format, hence, we used the Euclidean Distance analysis to generate rasters that each cell of them shows the distance from the nearest road or river.
At first we had 5 weather stations, which is very few for GWR. In this regard, we generated 1000 random points in the area and interpolated data to these points using Ordinary Kriging method with exponential semivariogram model in 30m resolution in ArcGIS software.
The multiple linear regression (MLR) model is the generalization of simple linear regression that is modeling the linear relation between one dependent variable and some independent variables. The general formula of MLR is seen below:
                                                                                                                                    (1)
The unknown coefficients are obtained using least squares adjustment as follows:
                                                                                                                                                      (2)
The logistic regression (LR) model is a nonlinear model for determination of the relation between a binary dependent variable and some independent variables. If we use the values of 0 and 1 for non-fire and fire points respectively, then the probability that a point be a fire point is obtained by Eq. (3):
                                                                                            (3)
If the number of parameters is insignificant compared to the observations, then we use the unconditional maximum likelihood estimation shown by Eq. (4) to compute the unknown coefficients of this model.
                                                                                                                                (4)
The multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) model is a flexible non-parametric model that requires no assumption about the relation between the dependent and independent variables. Hence it has a high ability in determination of complex nonlinear relations among the variables. The general formula of MARS is seen below:
                                                                                                             (5)
 is the m’th basic function that is obtained by Eq. (6):
                                                                                                  (6)
These basic functions are chosen in such a way that leads to minimum RMSE of model.
We use the genetic algorithem (GA) with the fitness function of the normalized RMSE to select the optimum combination of effective factors on forest fire.
 

4. Results and Discussion

In this paper we study the dependence of the forest fire to 14 factors shown in table 1, in the study area. Our results are shown in figures 1 to 3.
 
Table 1. The studied factors in the present research

Factor	Num.	Factor	Num.	Factor	Num.
Aspect	11	Maximum Wind Speed (m/s)	6	Maximum Temperature (℃)	1
Slope	12	Soil Type	7	Minimum Temperature (℃)	2
Elevation (m)	13	Land Use	8	Mean Temperature (℃)	3
Distance from The Residential Zones (m)	14	Distance from The Roads (m)	9	Total Rainfall (mm)	4
		Distance from The Rivers (m)	10	Maximum Wind Azimuth	5

 
 
  
Figure 1. (a) The best and the mean values of fitness, (b) The last best individuals, (c) The average distance between individuals, (d) The fitness of each individual in the last generation using MLR
 
Figure 2. (a) The best and the mean values of fitness, (b) The last best individuals, (c) The average distance between individuals, (d) The fitness of each individual in the last generation using LR
 

Figure 3. (a) The best and the mean values of fitness, (b) The last best individuals, (c) The average distance between individuals, (d) The fitness of each individual in the last generation using MARS

5. Conclusion

This research shows that both of the biophysical and anthropogenic factors have significant effects on forest fire in our study area. Just two factors were identified as impressive factors in all three cases including the minimum temperature and the maximum speed of wind. This study concluded to the NRMSE=0.4291 and R2=0.9862 for the multiple linear regression, NRMSE=0.9416 and R2=0.9912 for the logistic regression and NRMSE=0.1757 and R2=0.9886 for the multivariate adaptive regression spline and totally the multivariate adaptive regression spline method showed a better performance in comparison to the other two methods.
 

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Ecologically-based Management Factors and criteria of River-Valleys in Tehran metropolis-Case Study: River-Valleys of Kan
 
Abstract:
Iran has seasonal rivers because of dry climate, low rainfall and different topography. These river- valleys have main role in forming, genesis, and sustainability of human settlements and provide different ecological services. The main services include beauty, store of green spaces, water supply, reduce and create temperature differences, local air flow and natural ventilation which are part of the functions. Tehran is roughly the same area as 730 square kilometers and its population is 8.7 million people. It is located in51^° and 17^´ to 51^° and 33^´ east longitude and 35^° and 36^´ to 35^° and 44^´ north latitude. The height of this city is 900 to 1800 meters. The north and north east of this city are located in peculiarity range of the southern part of the middle Alborz. This city includes 7 river valleys to the names Darabad, Golabdareh, Darband, Velenjak, Darakeh, Farahzad and Kan. The ecological role of these river valleys is reduced because of non- ecological axis developmental interventions by urban management and citizens. These interventions have changed river valleys to high risk space of skirt movements and flood. Kan is the most important river valley because of the breadth of the basin and permanent water discharge rate. The part of this river valley has changed to park (Javanmardan) by municipality. The purpose of this research is that to provide factors and criteria of ecosystem based management to organize this river valley.
ANP has been used in this research. To use this method for analyzing   factors and criteria of ecosystem based management to organize this river valley, firstly, these factors have been identified by library studies and scrolling. These factors include 4 criteria (natural: 15 sub criteria, social: 3, management:  6, economic: 2). the books, journals, reports, maps, aerial photos, satellite images and internet sites have been studied in library studies. In site studies, some information from library studies have been edited. After that, the findings of these two methods in form of questionnaire called factors and criteria of ecosystem based management to organize Kan River valley, was in charge academics and professionals. They were elected among pundits of urban management science, urban planning, geography and environment in Tehran. At first the number of them was 30 people came to agreement in two process about 4 factors and 18 criteria and determined importance and priority by Delphy method. Findings in Delphy method were analyzed through ANP and SUPER DECISIONS. In this process, firstly, a conceptual model and relation inter and intra clusters and nodes determined. These relations in this process are very important because paired comparison depends on this process. Assumption of equality of effects and similar relations in these factors is illogical because there are the grading of effects and relations in this research. Second, the factors have been compared to each other to create a super matrix based on paired comparison. Generally, in this process decision makers compare two different factors to each other and paired comparisons have grading of between1to9. In double- sided valuation, each factor is used to show initial inverse comparison. Inconsistent rate in paired comparison must be less than 0.1 like AHP. Third initial super matrix is created. It is the weights created from paired comparison and identified the importance of each factor in each cluster. Forth, the weighted super matrix was created. The weights of clusters was calculated in this process to identify the weight of final super matrix. Fifth, limited super matrix was created. The weighted super matrix reached for infinity band each row convergenced to a number and that number was the weight of factor. By this way limited super matrix was reached.
Based on ANP and table 1, management: 46%, natural – ecological: 26% and economic and social factors: 14% are important respectively in ecosystem based management to organize Kan River valley. Based on reached results, inconsistent rate is 0.003 and it shows that the weight is valid and review is not necessary. Among sub criteria in management factor, organizational pattern: 32%, method of management: 23% and policies: 21% are the most important respectively in ecosystem based management to organize Kan River valley. Among sub criteria in natural- ecological factor, flood, domain movements and building and texture of soil are the most important respectively 23%, 18% and 11.5% also in social factor, participation, security and public trust have the importance respectively equal to 49% 31% 19%. In economic factor, environmental assets and stakeholder’s economic participation have the same importance.
Based on this research, management factor (organizational pattern and the method of management) is the most important in ecosystem based management. But this approach, the management pattern and intervention to organize this river valley, need comprehensiveness and integrity of the subject (nature, society, management and economic), purpose (protection, resuscitation and use), factors (government, city council, municipality, private sector and people), duties (policy making, planning, designing and perform), method (collaborative), tools (knowledge, skill, rule, program, budget, machinery and materials) and management domain. Use of these factors and criteria need some infrastructure and reforms. The most important reform is reform of management structure, production of subject matter and topical program special to organize river valleys by ecological approach to release Kan of loading and contradictory grabbing.so this management can follow protection, resuscitation, sustainable use and continuity of ecological services.
 
Key words: ecosystem, ecosystem based management, analytic network process, river valley of Kan
 
 
 

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Evaluation the best of selective base period of GCM models to determine meteorological variables of Birjand station in future periods
 
Abstract:
Nowadays, determining the effect of a climate change in the various aspects of human life is quite evident. In such a situation, it is very important to determine the base period, which determines the effects of a climate change than in this period. Choosing a course-based course plays an important role in choosing future courses to conduct research on the effects of climate change. Many researchers in the research use the LARS-WG dynamic downscale method or the statistical method to measure the weather variables, which should be the same for the years of the base period and the upcoming period.
This research was conducted to select the appropriate base course for estimating minimum temperature, maximum temperature and precipitation at the synoptic station in Birjand. The station is located at latitude 32 degrees and 53 degrees east and 59 degrees and 17 degrees north latitude. In order to evaluate and accuracy of the methods in this research, seven criteria for estimating root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE), relative error (RD), mean relative error of the month of the year (MRDM), average relative error of the month in the year (RDMM), PBIAS and RSR. In this study, using GCM models, we assessed the selected base courses for the synoptic station in Birjand. To doing in the research, an amount of 27 base courses from 35 models of the fifth report of the change were compared with similar periods obtained from the station in Birjand.
The results showed about precipitation that the duration of the base periods such as 1960-2005 and 1960-2000 is less of the RMSE and MAE errors than the rest of the courses, and the base period of 1965-1990 between periods less than 30 years and the period The 1990-1960s are also well suited to the precipitation data of the synoptic station. The maximum temperature of the 1960-1990, 1960-1985 and 1960-1995 is the lowest RMSE error. However, short-term courses of 1980-1960 and 1965-1985 present satisfactory results.In the case of minimum temperatures, periods of 21 and 31 years 1960-1980, 1960-1985, 1960-1990 and 1965- 1985 have a percentage error of RMSE and a lower percentage of PBIAS. Variable variation range can also be used to show the appropriate base course. The result showed that the periods 1960-2005 and 1970-2005 had a lower range of rainfall variation than the other variables and seems to be more suitable. However, courses such as 1990-2000, 1975-1995, and 1995-2005 have less certainty. The more courses that go into periods with shorter periods of time, the more modest and less certainty they will be. Also, if you look at changes in the 1975-2005 periods and the 1965-1995 periods, it will be clear how much each year towards the years closest to 2005 will be deducted from the precipitation daily average.
The results also show that maximum temperature changes are better than precipitation, and all courses have less variation range. Nevertheless, the period of 1960-2005 has the highest degree of certainty and the period of 1975-2005 has the least degree of certainty compared to the rest of the courses. In contrast to precipitation, there are periods such as 1970-1990, which, if considered as the basis for research, provide more certainty than the longer period of 1965-2005 for maximum temperature. Also, what's most clear about the maximum temperature is the higher the period with years closer to 2005, the temperature increases, which will increase the temperature over time.
The process of minimum temperature variations also indicates that in addition these changes are similar to the change in temperature, with the difference that the range of variations in the minimum temperature is somewhat higher than the maximum temperature. The period of 1960-2005 has the best degree of certainty and the period from 1975-2005 has the least degree of certainty than the rest of the courses. Although long periods of time are less certain than short periods, the result is that the longer the interval between periods increases, the more precise the results will be. The result is not entirely correct, 1975-2000 is less certainty than the 1965-2000 period and has better results in minimum temperatures. Therefore, the evaluation of selected periods of GCM models with similar periods from observations of Birjand station shows that for rainfall variables, periods with a number of years yield more satisfactory results, but for two variables the minimum temperature and maximum temperature of the periods, not long or short periods, provide less risk of RMSE and PBIAS than long periods.
Keywords: climate change, GCM model, base period, meteorological variable, emotion scenario
 
 
 

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Prediction of Climate Change in Western of Iran using Downscaling of HadCM3 Model under Different Scenarios
 
Hassan Zohrehvandi ¹, Ali Mohammad Khorshiddoust ², Behrouz Sari Sarraf ³

1- Ph.D student of Climatology, University of Tabriz, Email:  H.zohrehvandi@gmail.com 
Mobile number:+989181502513
2 - Associate Professor of Climatology, University of Tabriz, Email:         
 Mobile number:
 3- Associate Professor of Climatology, University of Tabriz, Email:      
 Mobile number:
 
Abstract
   Considering that water resources are at risk from climate change, the study of temperature and precipitation changes in the coming years can lead to droughts such as droughts, sudden floods, high evaporation and environmental degradation. To this end, global climate models (GCMs) are designed to assess climate change. The outputs of these models have low spatial accuracy. In order to increase the spatial accuracy of this data, downscaling methods are used which are divided into statistical and dynamic methods. One of the reasons for using these models is their quick and easy operation compared to other methods. Our study area consists of Kurdistan, Kermanshah and Hamedan provinces in the west of the country. In this study, observational data of minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation and radiation of 6 synoptic stations in the studied area in the statistical period of 1961 until 2005. In this study, the LARS-WG model was used for downscaling of HadCM3 global model data. The LARS-WG model is one of the most popular weather generator models that which to generation for maximum and minimum temperature, rainfall and radiation are used daily under current and future climate conditions. This model as a downscaled version of the same process less complex and simulated data input and output, high ability to predict climate change. The HadCM3 model is also a type of atmospheric- oceanic circulation model developed at the Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research, which has a 2.5 degree latitude network at 3.75 degrees longitude. Also, three climate change scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 have been used, each of which reflects the characteristics of the world's economic growth, the world's population and social awareness. The methodology is that the model receives the monitored data of the basic course; by examining them the statistical characteristics of the data are extracted. Then, in order to validate and ensure the model's capability for the basic statistical period, the model is implemented to re-establish a series of artificial data in the base period. Then the outputs to evaluate the performance of the model in the reconstruction of the data, the statistical characteristics of observations to test and compare various criteria. MAE, MSE, RMSE and R2 criteria were used to evaluate and analyze the performance of the downscaling model. The results showed that the accuracy of the model varies in different stations and parameters, so that the model in simulation of temperature and radiation is more suitable than rainfall simulation. Also, the model has more successful in simulation of maximum temperature in comparison with minimum temperature. In sum, the results of different evaluation criteria indicate that the LARS-WG model has a good accuracy for the downscaling of the parameters studied in the study area. After evaluating the LARS-WG model and ensuring its appropriateness, the data was generated by the model for three climate change scenarios using the HadCM3 model. The results of the monthly review of the parameters studied at the station indicate that precipitation in the 2050s at all stations except Saralpul Zahab and Sanandaj stations according to the three scenarios studied in most months except December, January And at some stations, sometimes in November and February, they were lower than the base period, and rainfall is expected to decrease over the 20 years period (2046-2065), but the situation for Sanandaj and Saralpul Zahab stations is somewhat different, which, according to some scenarios, has increased in most months of the year, and according to some scenarios, rainfall has decreased in some months and it seems that the precipitation pattern is shifted The end of the warm season. But the rainfall situation is completely different in the 2080s, and rainfall has decreased in all stations and in most months of the year. The average monthly of the minimum and maximum temperatures as well as the amount of radiation shows that all three parameters will increase in all months of the year based on all three scenarios, as well as in the two decades studied (2080 and 2050) And its rate would increase in the decade than in the previous decade. According to the results, the amount of precipitation decreases in study area and the temperature and radiation will increase as well. The rate of precipitation decrease in the following periods will be 7.7% in the region than in the base period, and the minimum and maximum temperatures in the long-term was increase at the region 3.4 and 3.4 degrees Celsius, respectively, compared to the average period of the base. The radiation increase was 0.38 mJ /m² in Area level. The results of this research can help to solve the challenges of water resource managers and planners in future periods.
 
Keywords: Climate Change, downscaling, west of Iran, General Circulation model, LARS-WG
 
 
 
 

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The study of temporal - spatial changes of high extreme rainfalls in west of Iran (1965-2016)
 
 Extended Abstract
Introduction                                   
Rainfall is one of the appropriate weather parameters not only in describing weather condition in one specific area but also is in estimating potential impacts of climate change in the environment and in many economic and social systems. Some studies show that during half a century weather patterns by more and severe raining events and by changes in scheduling and rain status has been changed. From 1960s with its much slope, the abundance and severity of extreme rainfalls throughout the world has increased and it is expected to continue the increase until the end of the current century. So understanding the behavior of extreme events is one of the main aspects of climate change and the increase of information about heavy rains has utmost importance for society, especially for the population who lives in areas with increased flood risk.
According to above mentioned cases and abnormal behavior and irregular rainfalls in Iran and its high variability from one hand and Iran's west region ability to heaviness and extension of rainfalls on the other hand, the necessity of understanding and study of temporal and spatial dangerous rainfalls is recognized. Among extreme rainfall characteristics, the portion of such rainfalls in total rain production is studied less.   Due to the experiments carried out, the increase of annual rainfall in Iran happens through heavy rainfalls. Therefore heavy rainfall portions out of total annual rainfalls can be defined as an index of crisis. The increase of this index implies the heavy floods in rainy years and severe drought and drought years.
 
Data and Method
Iran's west region including East and West Azerbaijan provinces, Zanjan, Kurdistan, Kermanshah, Hamadan, Lorestan, and Ilam consists of about 14 percent of Iran's total area. The height of this region includes a domain of 100 to about 4000 meters. Zagros mountain ranges are the most important characteristic of west of Iran, which are drawn from north-west to south-east.
In this research, we used network data from interpolation daily rainfall observation of 823 meteorology stations from January 1st up to December 31st, 2016 by using Kriging interpolation method and by separating 6×6 km spatial. The results formed matrix interpolation process by dimension of 18993×6410. This matrix has the rain status of 6410 points of west of Iran for every day rainfall (18993). Extreme rain falls are identified in terms of threshold of 95 percentile in each point and each day of year. The rainfall of each day and each pixel is compared to that related pixel and corresponding to that day and those days which their rainfalls rates were equal to or larger than threshold were identified for studying extreme rain fall portion in total yearly rainfall, the total of equal rainfalls and more than 95 percentile is calculated for each year and each of pixel and, it is divided to total of the same pixel rainfalls in that year.
We used the least squarely error for understanding temporal- spatial behavior of regression.
 
Results and Discussion
The average extreme rain falls in west of Iran is under the influence of their roughness and placement and also synoptic rainfall. The proof of this claim identifies through placement of average extreme rainfall over altitudes of region. By increasing geographical latitude in Iran's western provinces, it is decreased both of total extreme rainfalls and portion of such rainfall out of total yearly rainfall. Total extreme rainfall trend shows a frequency in a domain with 16 mm in each year. The negative trend of total rainfall with the area of 74.72 percent consists of three quarters of Iran's west.
The narrow strip of the west of Kurdistan and south-west of west Azerbaijan have the highest amount of positive trend which is meaningful in certainty level of 95 percent.
The study of process showed the ratio of extreme rainfalls portion to total yearly rainfall, which is increasing about 60.7 percent of west area of this country extreme rainfalls in total yearly rainfall and the greatest part of this area is located in southern half of the studied area.
The negative trend also is located in northern half and they have consisted of 39.29 percent of studied area of these, only in 29.81 percent of region, the trend ratio of extreme rainfalls to total yearly rainfalls are meaningful in certainty level of 95 percent.
Keywords: Extreme Rainfalls, Trend, 95 Percentile, Rainfall Portion, west of Iran.
 

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Analysis and Comparing Satellite Products and Simulated
 Of AOD in West Iran (2000-2018)
 
Kaveh Mohammadpour, Ph.D. Student in Climatology, Kharazmi University of Tehran
Mohammad Saligheh, Associate Professor in Climatology, Kharazmi University of Tehran
Ali Darvishi Bloorani, Assistant Professor in RS & GIS, Tehran University
Tayeb Raziei, Assistant Professor in Climatology, SCWMRI, Iran
 
Introduction
Dust are the main type of aerosols that affects directly and indirectly radiation budget. In addition, those affect the temperature change, cloud formation, convection, and precipitation. In recent years, the increase of different sensors and models has made possible to research the dust. The most important studies about dust analysis has been considered of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) as the most key parameter, which are based on the use of remote sensing technique and global models for analyzing the behavior and dynamics of dust in recent two decades. To achieve this, it has used of MODIS and MACC to study and identify the behavior of dust in the last two decades over west Iran.
 
Materials and methods
Areas in this study are Ilam, Kermanshah, Kurdistan, Lorestan and Hamedan provinces. The area has studied of two data series such as: first is MACC data with a spatial precision of 14 km2 and a 3-hour time scale; and other one is MODIS sensor production on the Terra satellite with a 10-square-kilometers resolution. In order to analyze the dust in the area in the period 2000 to 2018, statistical methods and simulation has used of the AOD parameter in MACC and MODIS. Before any processing, the data regraded to 0.2 × 0.2 degrees in order to compare the data. Then, the average daily AOD formed in a 22 × 23 matrix with 560 pixels that presented with 3653 × 560 for MACC during 2003 to 2012 and 6489 × 560 for MODIS during 2000-2018. Average of daily AOD obtained of MACC and MODIS calculated using of statistical equations. Then, the spatial distribution of AOD during the dusty months for synoptic stations and total province surface extracted using of R packages during the daily time series of the periods. Finally, the spatial distribution of the obtained AOD interpolated using the kriging function.
 
Results and Discussion
The average annual AOD obtained from Deep Blue algorithm from MODIS was less than MACC in all of the interested stations, except for Hamedan and Khorramabad stations, and provinces surfaces.
Correlation of AOD between MODIS and MACC shown that the correlations is high between model and sensor data (R2 = 59). In addition, the spatial correlation map shows 0.38 to 0.76 in which indicates a significant relationship between the MACC and MODIS pixels and the relationship is more in the western provinces of the area than the northeast of the region (Hamedan). The monthly comparison of the mean of AOD of the sensor and the model in the whole the area shows a highest correlation between the AOD in February and October.
The interpolation of the spatial distribution in the decade of the study (2003-2012) in MACC showed that the spatial variations of AOD is decreasing from the south of Ilam to the north of Kurdistan and reached the lowest level in the north of Kurdistan province. In general, the findings of annual and seasonal spatial distribution (dry period) of dust showed that MACC overestimated AOD compared to MODIS in the area. Nonetheless, the dust pattern in both of the sensor and the model increased from south to north. Although, the dust pattern is more regular in the sensor than the model. The spatial distribution of dust in Ilam, Kermanshah, and Kurdistan provinces in MODIS and MACC shows that dust in the southern point of the Ilam province has the highest concentration and the lowest is observed in the northeast of Kurdistan province. This spatial distribution of dust showed that dust in western provinces of the area follow latitudinal trend , in which is influenced by the high topography of Kermanshah and Kurdistan provinces and the proximity of Ilam province to dust sources in the distribution of dust intensity.
 
Conclusion
The results showed that there was a significant correlation between the sensor and the model and the coefficient was more than 0.4 in all months on the area. The findings of the annual amount of dust in MODIS showed that the amount of dust in the years 2000 to 2009 has increased in whole areas and from 2009 onwards, this annual trend has been reduced by 2018. MACC findings also showed that the AOD has been growing up in the period, although AOD amount have had a steep slope by 2010, but since 2010, dust has a steady slope. Therefore, West Iran has experienced two active (before 2010) and inactive (after 2010) periods in dust during an 18-years period on the area. The findings of MODIS and MACC in the study area indicate that the monthly distribution of dust from April to August has the highest concentration. In general, the annual and seasonal spatial distribution (months with the highest AOD) of dust indicates that the intensity of AOD in MACC was higher than MODIS in the area. Although the sensor and model has a roughly similar pattern and increases from south to north, but the trend in MODIS is more regular than MACC.
 
Keywords: Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), MACC, MODIS, West Iran
 
 
 
 

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 Investigating the effect of desert micro-organisms on vegetative traits and yield of grapevine in Shiraz
 
Extended Abstract
 
Introduction
 Mineral aerosols as a pollution of atmosphere has become a global concern with environmental impacts on human, Vegetable and transportation system. Plants exposed to aerosol exhibit morphological and physiological changes. Dust particles is one of the aerosols in the atmosphere which deposits on the leaf of plants can alter their available light of photosynthesis. This interferes with gas exchange of CO₂ between the leaf and air of environment, and the reduction of leaf stomatal conductance. Finally reduction the yield of plants. Grapevines Vitis vinifera. Askari, are grown extensively in the Shiraz city. The period from March to July coincides with extensive shoot and fruit which these processes depend on environment conditions. Any stress reducing fruit set and leaf characterizes, will negatively affect grapevine productivity. Thus, the objective of this study was to examine the effects of dust deposits on grapevine leaves and to estimate the impact on vegetative traits and yield of grapevine.
 
Method
 Experiments were implemented on 36 grapevines V.vinifera L. cv. Askari in the form of RCBD with drip irrigation during 2017-2018 from late March to July when the buds grow until the harvest. Treatments included: T₁) artificial dust sprayed on canopy of vine by a manually operated duster, T₂) washing canopy of vines using well water in the field after spraying artificial dust, and T₃) control. Artificial dust particles were collected from uncultivated areas of Azadegan plain in Khuzestan province. To provide suitable fine particles, the soil was grinded, milled and sieved using a mesh size of 200 opening per inches. The physical and chemical tests were performed using an X-ray diffraction device. A dust chamber and a dust generator were constructed to simulate dust. A mechanical apparatus consisted of a 50-cm pipe and a ventilation fan was also used. The chamber was made of a plastic sheet with 2×2×1.5 m dimensions. To evaluate chlorophylls a and b concentration, used by spectrophotometer in wavelengths of 647 nm and 663 nm. Single Leaf Area Index (LAI) was calculated by image processing method Win-Area-Ut_10 system. The sugar content of grapes was determined by measuring the Refrectometer BME center index of their juice sugar. Also measured the RWC, fruit set percentage, Length of Branch Leaf Dry Weight and Yield.
 
Results
The mean of particle size was 10.6 μm and the chemical composition of these particles included Silicon Oxide, Sodium Sulfate, Na = 6.14 mg/L, K = 10.73 mg/L, Ca = 23.9 meq/L and Mg = 3.5 meq/L. Chlorophyll a and b content decreased by dust particles treatment in the throughout the phonological stages of grapevine and had a significantly different as compared to washing and control treatments. RWC was reduced in the dust treatment as compared to the washing and control treatment (P < 0.05). The maximum of Leaf Area Index (131 cm²) was obtained in the control and the minimum (86 cm²) was obtained in the dust treatment. The maximum percentage of fruit set was obtained in the washing treatment (24%). but, the lowest fruit set trait (18%) was found in the dust treatment. The highest TSS (22.7 %) was observed in the washing treatment and the lowest TSS (18.1%) was seen in the dust treatment. The difference among the numbers of berries among treatments was significant (P < 0.05). The highest and the lowest numbers of berries were observed in the washing treatment (87 berries per bunch) and the dust treatment (49 berries per bunch). The heaviest bunch was observed in the washing treatment (158.7 g), while the lightest bunch weight (100 g) was observed in the dust treatment which had significantly difference with control and washing treatments. The highest yield (22.5 kg/vine) was observed in the washing treatment and the lowest yield (7.9 kg/vine) was observed in the dust treatment, whereas control produced 19.5 kg/vine averagely.
 
Conclusion
It was found that dust accumulation on the surface of leaf grapevine Askari induces some physiological changes such as a reduction of photosynthetic pigments, relative water content and leaf area. Deposition of dust particles on flower of grape led to decrease of reproductive trait, but washing vine by water led to improvement of production. As a result, washing of vine also increased grape production as compared to the control treatment. According to the results, dust particles reduced fruit set by deposition on flower and they were identified as an environmental stress on grapevine. More importantly, the results revealed that yield of grapevine was adversely affected by dust deposits over a short interval of time during the fruit set. Therefore, the fruit set stage, in which the fruit is formed, was recognized as the most important stage in plant production. It was also found that removal of dust particles from the plant leaves by washing methods can reduce the effects of dust particles.
 
Keywords: Dust, Chlorophyll, Fruit, Sugar, Shiraz.
 
 
 

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The geographical location of Yazd province has greatly influenced the creation of spatial and climatic diversity and the provision of appropriate facilities for the formation of various natural and cultural attractions. Nevertheless, these areas need more attention in terms of the potential of tourism development for social sustainability. This research is done with the aim of spatial analysis of tourism capacity of desert areas and its role in social sustainability, and according to its nature, it is an applied type. The research method is descriptive-analytic. Documentary and field data are used to collect data. The data were analyzed quantitatively (one-sample T-test, Pearson test and AHP and Barda methods). The findings show that according to the experts' opinion, the effective indicators in identifying tourism capacities are distance from roads, distance from historical attractions, distance from residential centers, distance from natural attractions, type and soil suitability, distance from water resources , Elevation, direction of gradient, slope, land use and precipitation. The results show that 24 percent of the total area of the area has relatively good capacity and is located in the central, eastern and northeastern parts of the province. The most important criteria that have made these areas selected as optimal areas are the density of natural-ecological elements such as the existence of diverse deserts and deserts, geotops, glacier cirques, and historical-cultural elements such as traditional water reservoirs, markets, shrines and temples And so on. Also, 26% of the area has average power, which is mostly located in the east and northeast of the province. Finally, areas with inappropriate and relatively inappropriate power are found in parts of the eastern province of Karshra that occupy 51% of the total area of the zone. The results of measuring the social sustainability status of desert and desert areas based on indicators (population distribution, transport infrastructure, immigration status and deprivation rate) show that Yazd city has the highest ranking and Ardakan, Bafgh, Mehriz , Taft Meybod and Abarkuhh moderate sustainability, and finally Khatam, Saduj and Bahabad are among the unstable and less developed cities of Yazd province. The results of Pearson correlation coefficient showed that there is a significant relationship between tourism development and social sustainability in different regions of Yazd province at 99% level. This means that areas with demographic, demographic, and low levels of social sustainability have lower attraction and tourism capabilities than other Yazd province cities.

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The study and Comparison of desertification process on the basis of climate Criterion (Case Study: Abbas and Dehloran Plains, Ilam)
Soraya Yaghoobi, Kamran Karimi, Marzban Faramarzi
Abstract:
Nowdays desertification is a disaster in many countries , especially in developing countries. This problem includes natural factors and improper human activities. According to the expansion of desertification, providing the appropriate management methods will be reduced desertification intensity and its expansions. In this way, knowledge of processes of desertification and factors causing and  the intensifier it and also awareness of intensity and Weakness the processes and factors that are important and necessary   that should review and evaluate. Recognition criteria and indicators for provide a model to show the process of desertification and for determine one of the  best reason effective factors for prevent the spread of desertification factors is necessary. To knowledge and Trend of desertification and separation of  vulnerable  areas versus degradation factors .we should indentifi and evaluat  criteria and indicators affecte  at desertification. Therefore in this study of  the Iranian model IMDPA to assess trends and Comparison of desertification in recent years has used.
The studied area of  Dehloran plain is located in southeast of Ilam province (47^◦ 02′ 16″ to 47^◦ 25′ 07″ E and 32^◦ 48′ 33″ to 32^◦ 18′ 48″N) with an area of 54252  hectares, With precipitation  average 251.6 mm and Abbas plain is located in south of Ilam province(47^◦ 37′ 55″ to 47^◦  50′ 57″ E and  32^◦ 17′ 77″ to 32^◦ 29′ 25″N) with an area of 34104 hectares With precipitation  average 227.1mm. In this study, in dehloran plain of six stations in this Inside and outside the area also in Abbas plain of five  stations outside the area  used to measure the amount of rainfall in different seasons of year. In this study, to assessment  and Comparison of desertification in two study area of the Iranian model IMDPA used. In this study, of climate criteria, were used. which according to the IMDPA model for this criteria, indexes are considered for evaluation e.t.c: Climate criteria: (1) the amount of annual rainfall 2-drought indexe(SPI) 3. continuing drought In IMDPA model  All measurements  do in this work  units. To this end, first, working unit maps (geomorphologic facies) were created using slope, geology, and land use maps. a map was generated for each index according to assigned weights, such that the qualitative map of the desired criteria were obtained using the geometric mean of indicators.
The results earn  of  evaluation  of desertification  showed that  in the period  2005-2009  weight average of climate criteria is same with 1.50 all of the region are in the classe Middle sub class 1 and class low sub class3 . in the period  2010-2014  Also  weight average of climate criteria is same with 1.88 in classe Middle sub classes 2 and 3.  Also weight average of climate criteria in Abbas plain In the first period is same with 1.92  in the classe Middle sub classe2. Also In the second period with weight average is same 2.3 in classe Middle sub classes 2 and 3. The results showed that SPI index, as the most effective indexes, in plain Abbas In the first and second periods with the weighted average 3.04and 3.2 in the intense class under class 2 and 3. in front in Dehloran plain SPI index in the first and second periods with weighted average of 1.93 and 2.25 in the moderate classe and sub-classes 1, 2 and 3 and intense sub-classe 1.
In this study, to assess and Comparison of desertification Dehloran and Abbas Plains to provide regional model has done. . In this way  of  a criteria, also important and effective indexes belonging to this criteria of desertification used in dehloran and Abbas plains . The obtained results of the analysis criteria and Indexes indicated that in dehloran and Abbas plains in the first period ( 2005-2009) And second period (2010-2014)  between  indexes  the amount of annual rainfall, standard precipitation index (SPI) and drought duration Evaluated on the areas respectively standard precipitation index (SPI),  rainfall and drought duration index the most important factors in exacerbating desertification. Can be concluded that the intensity of desertification in Abbas plain compared to dehloran plain terms of climate is In more adverse conditions. In general, it can be concluded that desertification would intensify in future decades.
Keywords: Desertification, IMDPA, Climate, Abbas Plain, DehloranPlain