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Hamed Abbasi, Siamak Sharafi, Zohreh Maryakji,
Volume 4, Issue 2 (7-2017)
Volume 4, Issue 2 (7-2017)
Abstract
Natural hazards are basically the changes that occur in environmental conditions, causing a disruption of the natural life of the people and their exposure to hazardous and degradable elements and elements. Establishing cities and residential areas on landforms has created new perspectives. The development of these areas has altered the geostationary balance of many landforms, and the response of geosystems is an expression of geomorphological hazards such as land subsidence, fault activity, flood, and the like that threatens residents of urban areas. The trend of population growth in the urban areas of Lorestan province in western Iran has also caused the physical expansion of the provincial cities in the periphery. This development has resulted in landslides and areas that, in many cases, have not been studied in environmental and environmental sustainability. The consequence of this is to increase the risk factor of these areas against a variety of hazards. In this regard, the aim of this study is to analyze the geomorphic hazards of earthquake, flood, landslide and liquefaction in the 9 major cities of the province and zonation of areas based on the degree of risk, in order to identify the high risk areas, urban management, necessary measures to increase environmental capabilities. And reduce vulnerabilities
In this research, effective factors were first identified in the occurrence of each of the flood geomorphic hazards, landslide, earthquake and fluidization. Then, maps were prepared for each of the factors, topographic maps, geology, geological data, seismicity, etc. from different organizations and maps were prepared. After preparing the maps, the fuzzy standardization method (decreasing and incremental functions) was used to determine the effective impact of each of the effective information layers in the occurrence of each of the hazards. In the final stage, considering the factors affecting the occurrence of any geomorphic hazards, weighing to layers based on their degree of importance was carried out using (AHP) method. At this stage, the final weight of each layer was multiplied in the corresponding layer, and then together and the final map of each of the geomorphic hazards was prepared. After mapping each of the geomorphic hazards of the studied cities, weighing and combining earthquake, flood, landslide and fluidization layers, maps of geomorphic maps of the cities were prepared.
The study of the geomorphic hazards of the city of Poldokhtar in the south of the province suggests that flood occurrence is considered as the most important threat to the geomorphic city of Poldokhtar. There is also a possibility of liquefaction due to the high groundwater level, especially in the north of the city. In the city of Kohdasht, in the west of the province, the risk of flood events is higher than the other hazards due to the river passing as a drainage of the catchment from the city. Geomorphic hazards in the northern city of northern Lorestan indicate that the central part of the city is at risk of landslide and liquefaction and parts of the north, west and south are exposed to flood. The probability of occurrence of geomorphic hazards in the area of Alshatr in the north of Lorestan province is low. So that the northwest and eastern parts of the city are risk free and in other parts, the risk of geomorphic hazards is moderate and low. Surveying the risks of Boroujerd city indicates that parts of the West of the city that are in high risk of flood, landslide and liquefaction are known as high risk areas and southern regions as low risk areas. Also, among the threats of Borujerd city, the probability of an earthquake due to the crossing of the young Zagros fault from the Silakhor plain is more than the other geomorphic hazards. In the city of Azna, the risk of flooding is considered to be the most significant danger to the city, although there is a likelihood of landslide and fluidization. The study of geomorphic hazards in the city of Aligudarz shows that rivers in the west of the city are exposed to geomorphic hazards, especially flood. In the city of Dorood, the flood event seems more likely than other hazards. The flood event in the central part of the city, which crosses the main rivers, has the highest potential. But in general, the risk of an earthquake is the most important geopolitical risk in the city of Dorood. In the city of Khorramabad as the capital of Lorestan province, the southern parts of the city have the highest geomorphic risk due to the high potential of flood and liquefaction. Also, the flood risk is considered to be the most important geomorphic risk in the city.
The study of geomorphic hazards in the major cities of Lorestan province suggests that there is a probability of occurrence of hazards in urban areas, but the types of hazards are different in cities located in the west and east of the province. Studies show that there is a potential for flood events in many cities, especially in southern cities and Khorramabad, in the capital of the province. Cities located in the east of the province (Doroud, Azna and Boroujerd) have a high density of earthquake occurrence due to the fact that they are located in the zone of the young Zagros fault and the Seychelles seismic quake. Nevertheless, according to geological formations, there is a possibility of landslide occurrence in the cities of Khorramabad and Aligudarz. The likelihood of occurrence of liquefaction occurrence in the studied cities is higher, especially in the eastern province of the province, because the urban areas are mainly located in plains with high groundwater and alluvial soils. The final results show that the risk of flood in the western regions of Lorestan province and the earthquake in the eastern provinces of the province are the most important threats to geomorphic cities.
In this research, effective factors were first identified in the occurrence of each of the flood geomorphic hazards, landslide, earthquake and fluidization. Then, maps were prepared for each of the factors, topographic maps, geology, geological data, seismicity, etc. from different organizations and maps were prepared. After preparing the maps, the fuzzy standardization method (decreasing and incremental functions) was used to determine the effective impact of each of the effective information layers in the occurrence of each of the hazards. In the final stage, considering the factors affecting the occurrence of any geomorphic hazards, weighing to layers based on their degree of importance was carried out using (AHP) method. At this stage, the final weight of each layer was multiplied in the corresponding layer, and then together and the final map of each of the geomorphic hazards was prepared. After mapping each of the geomorphic hazards of the studied cities, weighing and combining earthquake, flood, landslide and fluidization layers, maps of geomorphic maps of the cities were prepared.
The study of the geomorphic hazards of the city of Poldokhtar in the south of the province suggests that flood occurrence is considered as the most important threat to the geomorphic city of Poldokhtar. There is also a possibility of liquefaction due to the high groundwater level, especially in the north of the city. In the city of Kohdasht, in the west of the province, the risk of flood events is higher than the other hazards due to the river passing as a drainage of the catchment from the city. Geomorphic hazards in the northern city of northern Lorestan indicate that the central part of the city is at risk of landslide and liquefaction and parts of the north, west and south are exposed to flood. The probability of occurrence of geomorphic hazards in the area of Alshatr in the north of Lorestan province is low. So that the northwest and eastern parts of the city are risk free and in other parts, the risk of geomorphic hazards is moderate and low. Surveying the risks of Boroujerd city indicates that parts of the West of the city that are in high risk of flood, landslide and liquefaction are known as high risk areas and southern regions as low risk areas. Also, among the threats of Borujerd city, the probability of an earthquake due to the crossing of the young Zagros fault from the Silakhor plain is more than the other geomorphic hazards. In the city of Azna, the risk of flooding is considered to be the most significant danger to the city, although there is a likelihood of landslide and fluidization. The study of geomorphic hazards in the city of Aligudarz shows that rivers in the west of the city are exposed to geomorphic hazards, especially flood. In the city of Dorood, the flood event seems more likely than other hazards. The flood event in the central part of the city, which crosses the main rivers, has the highest potential. But in general, the risk of an earthquake is the most important geopolitical risk in the city of Dorood. In the city of Khorramabad as the capital of Lorestan province, the southern parts of the city have the highest geomorphic risk due to the high potential of flood and liquefaction. Also, the flood risk is considered to be the most important geomorphic risk in the city.
The study of geomorphic hazards in the major cities of Lorestan province suggests that there is a probability of occurrence of hazards in urban areas, but the types of hazards are different in cities located in the west and east of the province. Studies show that there is a potential for flood events in many cities, especially in southern cities and Khorramabad, in the capital of the province. Cities located in the east of the province (Doroud, Azna and Boroujerd) have a high density of earthquake occurrence due to the fact that they are located in the zone of the young Zagros fault and the Seychelles seismic quake. Nevertheless, according to geological formations, there is a possibility of landslide occurrence in the cities of Khorramabad and Aligudarz. The likelihood of occurrence of liquefaction occurrence in the studied cities is higher, especially in the eastern province of the province, because the urban areas are mainly located in plains with high groundwater and alluvial soils. The final results show that the risk of flood in the western regions of Lorestan province and the earthquake in the eastern provinces of the province are the most important threats to geomorphic cities.
Saeid Hamzeh, Zahra Farahani, Shahriar Mahdavi, Omid Chatrobgoun, Mehdi Gholamnia,
Volume 4, Issue 3 (9-2017)
Volume 4, Issue 3 (9-2017)
Abstract
As a result of climate change and reduction in rainfall during the last decade, drought has become big problem in the world, especially in arid and semi-arid areas such as Iran. Therefore drought monitoring and management is great of important. In contrast with the traditional methods which are based on the ground stations measurements and meteorological drought monitoring, using the remote sensing techniques and satellite imagery have become a useful tool for spatio-temporal monitoring of agricultural drought. But using of this technique and its results still need to be evaluated and calibrated for different areas.
The aim of this survey is to study the spatial and temporal patterns of drought using remote sensing and the regional meteorological data in the Markazi province. For this purpose, the MODIS satellite data between the years of 2000-2013 have been used to monitor and derived vegetation indices. Drought indices based on satellite data including the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), Temperature Condition Index (TCI), Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI), and Soil Water Index (SWI) were obtained from the MODIS satellite data for the period of study for different temporal scales (seasonal, biannual and annul).Then, correlation between obtained results from satellite data and standardized precipitation index (SPI) have been analyzed in all time periods.
Results show that study area has a low to medium vegetation cover. According to the results, the climate situation of the study area is more compatible with the seasonal results of the VCI, and VCI was selected as the best indicator for agricultural drought monitoring in the study are. The obtained results from the applying of VCI over the area show the drought condition in 2000 and 2008 and the wetness in 2009 and 2010 during the study period.
The aim of this survey is to study the spatial and temporal patterns of drought using remote sensing and the regional meteorological data in the Markazi province. For this purpose, the MODIS satellite data between the years of 2000-2013 have been used to monitor and derived vegetation indices. Drought indices based on satellite data including the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), Temperature Condition Index (TCI), Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI), and Soil Water Index (SWI) were obtained from the MODIS satellite data for the period of study for different temporal scales (seasonal, biannual and annul).Then, correlation between obtained results from satellite data and standardized precipitation index (SPI) have been analyzed in all time periods.
Results show that study area has a low to medium vegetation cover. According to the results, the climate situation of the study area is more compatible with the seasonal results of the VCI, and VCI was selected as the best indicator for agricultural drought monitoring in the study are. The obtained results from the applying of VCI over the area show the drought condition in 2000 and 2008 and the wetness in 2009 and 2010 during the study period.
Marzieh Taabe, Abolfazl Ranjbarfordoei, Sayed Hojat Mousavi, Mohammad Khosroshahi,
Volume 4, Issue 4 (1-2018)
Volume 4, Issue 4 (1-2018)
Abstract
The correct management in natural ecosystems is not possible without knowledge of the health in its sectors. Vegetation is the most significant sector in ecosystem that has important role in its health. Resilience is one of the defining features of health vegetation The term resilience was first introduced in the study of ecological systems and demonstrates the ability of the ecosystem to maintain its performance in the face of environmental disorders. A resilience-based system is not only equipped with a disorder adjustment mechanism but also has the potential to benefit from changes in a way that lead to creating an opportunity for development, innovation, and updating. Therefore, when a change occurs, the resilience provides the needed conditions for restarting and reorganization. If this goes beyond disturbing forces, the system will have the power to return to the maximum vegetation density with the least erosion effects, otherwise the system will be vulnerable to the change that was created and could already be controlled.
This research was done in part of North east of South Khorasan province (arid climate) with the aim of quantifying vegetative resilience on behalf of ecosystem health in response to drought occurrences and long-term precipitation changes, as environmental disturbances. Therefore first, using daily precipitation data from 15 meteorological stations around the study area, their annual precipitation was extracted and was standardized by Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) over the course of thirty years (1986 - 2015). Then, the SPI index data in 15 stations were interpolated by ArcGIS software based on Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) method and dry, wet and normal years was estimated in the study region for each year. On the other hand, from archive of satellite images of Landsat 5 and Landsat 7, an image was created for each year in study period, between 15 June and 15 July, with permanent coverage at the best of growth. Following the necessary corrections for satellite images, the average Transformed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (TNDVI) was obtained of each image by ENVI software. Finally, effected of precipitation changes on mean TNDVI was assessed and vegetation resilience was stabilized whit selected of sever time period samples based on four effective parameters (Amplitude, Malleability, Damping and Hysteresis).
Comparison of annual precipitation variations in the thirty-year time series (1986 -2015) indicated two approximate wet and dry periods in study area. The wet period is related to the first fourteen years of the time series (1986-1999) and the dry period is related to the last sixteen years (2000-2015). In this term, severe precipitation incidents with different intensities were occurred in the study area including one case of very intense precipitation (1986), one case of intense precipitation (1991) and two cases of moderate precipitation (1996 and 1992). Also, four drought incidents were occurred including one case of intense drought (2001) and three cases of moderate drought (1987, 2006 and 2008). All precipitations (wet years) are related to the first half and most droughts are related to the second half of the studied period. In this study for fixing of vegetation resilience in study area and for calculating of its parameters, In addition to the thirty-year time series selected sever time sections. in the whole study series (1986 - 2015), maximum of mean TNDVI (49.37 %) was in 1986 (reference), the lowest mean TNDVI (43.58%) was in 2010, The year effect of the decrease precipitation and drought, and mean TNDVI in 2015 was 44.28 %. Amount of parameters amplitude, malleability and damping are respectively 5.79, 0.7 and 5.09, and hysteresis was zero (%). The result of this case showed that the vegetation has moved towards the reference state (Resilience) but has not reached to amount of reference vegetation. The most specific cases for vegetation resilience happened from 1986 to 1996 (wet period) and 2003- 2009 time sector (dry period). In the first time section amount of amplitude and malleability were 0.64 %, damping was zero and hysteresis was 0.25%. The result of this case showed that not only the vegetation was returned to the reference state but also was increased to the reference (Cross reference).So despite the reduced rainfall and occurrence of sever occurrences of drought in dry period, hysteresis parameter (0.05 %) observed in 2003- 2009 time sector too that confirmed clearly vegetation health in study area whit dry climate.
Awareness of the health status of the vegetation and its response to long-term precipitation changes and environmental disorders, such as drought occurrence, ensure the success of the managerial plans for renewable natural resources. The present study is the second study on quantifying the vegetation resilience and the first study under dry climatic conditions in Asia (an average annual precipitation of 160 mm) conducted in Iran by calculating four factors related to resilience, and is the first study that has presented the factor hysteresis in the calculations. Despite continuous of difficult condition, the native vegetation of the study area has been able to return the reference state not only by resolving the disorder relatively, but also it has experienced hysteresis stage. A set of quantitative calculations showed despite reduced annual precipitation and drought events, vegetation has been able to maintain its resilience, which indicates the health of the vegetation in the studied ecosystem. With the presence of such amazing protective and consistent mechanisms in the vegetation of arid regions, it is possible to maintain and restore these regions by proper managerial plans.
Yousef Ghavidel, , ,
Volume 5, Issue 1 (6-2018)
Volume 5, Issue 1 (6-2018)
Abstract
Climatic geography of Tropical Cyclone hazards Affective on the southern coasts of Iran
The occurrence of any climatic fringes, including annual tropical storms, leave irreparable risks in its dominated areas. Understanding these events and knowledge of the time of their occurrence can be helpful in managing the unexpected incidents caused by them. Tropical cyclones are important natural turbulent processes in tropical and middle ecosystems in a number of regions of the world. Among the dynamic conditions of the atmosphere for the formation of tropical storms, there are three basic conditions: 1. The vertical wind shear should be limited between the 850 to 200 mb and the wind speed between these levels should be less than 10 meters per second. Such a situation allows the formation of a straight column, without breaking, to initiate tropical storms. 2- The formation state of tropical storms should be such that at least it is five degrees of latitude distant from the equator. Such conditions provide the minimum of Coriolis force to provide the tropical cyclic rotation along with other fundamental and apparent forces of the atmosphere and they occur following the pressure forces, Coriolis and centrifugal forces, cyclostrophic winds, and cyclic circulation in the center of the low pressure. 3- The presence of turbulence or discordance with vorticity and the convergence in the lower troposphere, or the anticyclone rotation and divergence in the upper levels of the atmosphere before the onset of activity, and the formation of tidal disturbances. Tropical storms are created by the presence of various dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as sea surface temperature and moisture content (thermodynamic properties), and flow and vertical winding functions (dynamic characteristics).
The parameters studied in this study for the dynamic and thermodynamic analysis of the tropical rotation of 1948 generally included the mean sea level pressure, geopotential heights, zonal and meridional components of wind, convection available potential energy, convective stabilization index, vertical velocity, relative vorticity, Sea surface temperature, humidity, and cloud cover levels which are drawn from the European Center for Medium Forecast Scale (ECMWF) with spatial resolution of 0.75 applying GRADS software. The study of combinational maps of 500 milligrams of geopotential heights and vorticity advection on the first day of the cyclone (1948/06/05) indicates the presence of a very strong low-altitude center with seven closed curves on the Arabian Sea. The most inner curve of this low-altitude center has the lowest elevation with 5650 geopotential meters height and the maximum vorticity advection and downright negative velocity of 10 and 0.5 Pascal to seconds, respectively. The above-mentioned Jetstream map with a maximum speed of 16 m / s, which covers the east of the center of the altitude, contributes to the greater divergence of this system. The formation of a very strong negative eddy in the 500-mb equilibrium also indicates intense instability at the site of the tropical cyclone and is actually a factor in the formation and reinforcement of such cyclones .The above-mentioned low altitude continues its cyclonic rotation at the level of 850 mb with two closed curves, and the maximum vorticity advection and downright negative velocity of 16 and 0.6 Pascal to second, respectively, due to the presence of lower level radar with a maximum speed of 20 m / s on the south side and similarly, in the south-east, it continued to circulate more rapidly at a rate higher than 500 mb, which results in the formation of the first pressure packet with a central
pressure of 997.5 mb on the sea surface. The high amount of specific humidity of 850 mb from the start of cyclone activity (12 g / kg), and the increase in this parameter in the next days of activity reaches 14 g / kg and also 4.5 g / kg at 500 millimeter equilibrium point to the high humidity at the location of the low-pressure center and the optimum conditions for the extraction of heavy rainfall in the eye wall of cyclone. Cloud cover maps also indicate a climber air density of up to 500 mb and the formation of a cloud at different levels of the atmosphere at the site of the formation of tropical rotation. The results show that the formation of the lower Jetstream, along with the tropical cyclone event (from 05 to 08 of 1948) affecting the southern coast of Iran, has been able to create severe air mass divergences in the left half of the nucleus and following this mechanism and the relationship between this velocity nucleus and the lower levels of the atmosphere and the sea level in the vertical direction, with the convergence of the mass, has been accompanied with the reduction of density and, finally, the reduction of pressure and the formation of turbulence, as the first ring for the development of tropical cyclones; therefore, the altitude of 850 mb and jet stream located at this elevation affected by the high-rise phenomenon on the western shores of the ocean (sometimes in the east of Madagascar) is considered as one of the most effective dynamic factors for the birth and development of this tropical cyclone on the southern coast of Iran. The tropical cyclone was formed from June 5 to June 8, 1948, at approximately 16 degrees north and 60 degrees east on the Arabian Sea. And, in general, the interaction between high pressure tongues on Saudi Arabia, Tibet and Iran, and the tropical cyclones has prepared the conditions for the activity and displacement of the tropical rotation. Previous studies of tropical storms have considered other synthetic systems, such as cyclones over Europe, and the integration of cyclones on the Mediterranean and Oman, as well as the displacement of the axis of tropical cyclones at middle and upper levels of the atmosphere affective in the escalation and displacement of the storm. It is also believed that the southern coast of Iran is also effective, and in general, less attention is paid to the causes of the development of the storm.
Key words:Tropical Cyclone, dynamic and thermodynamic analysis, low level jet stream, Thermodynamic parameters, Southern coast of Iran
The occurrence of any climatic fringes, including annual tropical storms, leave irreparable risks in its dominated areas. Understanding these events and knowledge of the time of their occurrence can be helpful in managing the unexpected incidents caused by them. Tropical cyclones are important natural turbulent processes in tropical and middle ecosystems in a number of regions of the world. Among the dynamic conditions of the atmosphere for the formation of tropical storms, there are three basic conditions: 1. The vertical wind shear should be limited between the 850 to 200 mb and the wind speed between these levels should be less than 10 meters per second. Such a situation allows the formation of a straight column, without breaking, to initiate tropical storms. 2- The formation state of tropical storms should be such that at least it is five degrees of latitude distant from the equator. Such conditions provide the minimum of Coriolis force to provide the tropical cyclic rotation along with other fundamental and apparent forces of the atmosphere and they occur following the pressure forces, Coriolis and centrifugal forces, cyclostrophic winds, and cyclic circulation in the center of the low pressure. 3- The presence of turbulence or discordance with vorticity and the convergence in the lower troposphere, or the anticyclone rotation and divergence in the upper levels of the atmosphere before the onset of activity, and the formation of tidal disturbances. Tropical storms are created by the presence of various dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as sea surface temperature and moisture content (thermodynamic properties), and flow and vertical winding functions (dynamic characteristics).
The parameters studied in this study for the dynamic and thermodynamic analysis of the tropical rotation of 1948 generally included the mean sea level pressure, geopotential heights, zonal and meridional components of wind, convection available potential energy, convective stabilization index, vertical velocity, relative vorticity, Sea surface temperature, humidity, and cloud cover levels which are drawn from the European Center for Medium Forecast Scale (ECMWF) with spatial resolution of 0.75 applying GRADS software. The study of combinational maps of 500 milligrams of geopotential heights and vorticity advection on the first day of the cyclone (1948/06/05) indicates the presence of a very strong low-altitude center with seven closed curves on the Arabian Sea. The most inner curve of this low-altitude center has the lowest elevation with 5650 geopotential meters height and the maximum vorticity advection and downright negative velocity of 10 and 0.5 Pascal to seconds, respectively. The above-mentioned Jetstream map with a maximum speed of 16 m / s, which covers the east of the center of the altitude, contributes to the greater divergence of this system. The formation of a very strong negative eddy in the 500-mb equilibrium also indicates intense instability at the site of the tropical cyclone and is actually a factor in the formation and reinforcement of such cyclones .The above-mentioned low altitude continues its cyclonic rotation at the level of 850 mb with two closed curves, and the maximum vorticity advection and downright negative velocity of 16 and 0.6 Pascal to second, respectively, due to the presence of lower level radar with a maximum speed of 20 m / s on the south side and similarly, in the south-east, it continued to circulate more rapidly at a rate higher than 500 mb, which results in the formation of the first pressure packet with a central
pressure of 997.5 mb on the sea surface. The high amount of specific humidity of 850 mb from the start of cyclone activity (12 g / kg), and the increase in this parameter in the next days of activity reaches 14 g / kg and also 4.5 g / kg at 500 millimeter equilibrium point to the high humidity at the location of the low-pressure center and the optimum conditions for the extraction of heavy rainfall in the eye wall of cyclone. Cloud cover maps also indicate a climber air density of up to 500 mb and the formation of a cloud at different levels of the atmosphere at the site of the formation of tropical rotation. The results show that the formation of the lower Jetstream, along with the tropical cyclone event (from 05 to 08 of 1948) affecting the southern coast of Iran, has been able to create severe air mass divergences in the left half of the nucleus and following this mechanism and the relationship between this velocity nucleus and the lower levels of the atmosphere and the sea level in the vertical direction, with the convergence of the mass, has been accompanied with the reduction of density and, finally, the reduction of pressure and the formation of turbulence, as the first ring for the development of tropical cyclones; therefore, the altitude of 850 mb and jet stream located at this elevation affected by the high-rise phenomenon on the western shores of the ocean (sometimes in the east of Madagascar) is considered as one of the most effective dynamic factors for the birth and development of this tropical cyclone on the southern coast of Iran. The tropical cyclone was formed from June 5 to June 8, 1948, at approximately 16 degrees north and 60 degrees east on the Arabian Sea. And, in general, the interaction between high pressure tongues on Saudi Arabia, Tibet and Iran, and the tropical cyclones has prepared the conditions for the activity and displacement of the tropical rotation. Previous studies of tropical storms have considered other synthetic systems, such as cyclones over Europe, and the integration of cyclones on the Mediterranean and Oman, as well as the displacement of the axis of tropical cyclones at middle and upper levels of the atmosphere affective in the escalation and displacement of the storm. It is also believed that the southern coast of Iran is also effective, and in general, less attention is paid to the causes of the development of the storm.
Key words:Tropical Cyclone, dynamic and thermodynamic analysis, low level jet stream, Thermodynamic parameters, Southern coast of Iran
Amir Saffari, Amir Saffari, Jalal Karami,
Volume 5, Issue 1 (6-2018)
Volume 5, Issue 1 (6-2018)
Abstract
Investigation about the influence of land-cover and land use changes on soil erodibility potential, case study: Gharesou, Gorganrood
Land use and land cover (LUC) change associated with climatic and geomorphologic conditions of the area have an accelerating impact on the land degradation. Natural as well as human-induced land use land cover change (LUCC) has significant impacts on regional soil degradation, including soil erosion, soil acidification, nutrient leaching, and organic matter depletion. Since the last century, soil erosion accelerated by human activities has become a serious environmental problem. It has a manifold environmental impact by negatively affecting water supply, reservoir storage capacity, agricultural productivity, and freshwater ecology of the region. In recent years, many researchers have highlighted the environmental consequences of soil erosion.
Soil erosion estimation at a regional scale is influenced by the complexity of the soil erosion process and the availability of data describing the soil erosion factors. In the last decade, regional and national level assessments of soil erosion were carried out using different approaches, ranging from indicator or factor-based approaches to process-based models. However, the revised universal soil loss (RUSLE) and its modifications are still widely used because of its simplicity and a greater availability of input parameters.
Gharesou basin is one of the sub-basins of Gharesou, it suffered from severe erosion in some areas over the past years. This erosion has occurred for different reasons and one of them is land use change and weak management of water and soil resources. The purpose of this research is to investigate the effects of land-cover changes on the potential of soil erosion in Gharesou Basin, a sub-basin of Gorganrood, in Golestan province. For this, we have employed RUSLE Model and used landsat satellite images from the sensors of TM, ETM, and OLI for 1985, 2000, and 2015. The potential soil erosion in this study was estimated using RUSLE model, which can be described using following equation:
A = R × K × LS × C × P
where A is amount of soil erosion calculated in tons per hectare per year, R is rainfall factor , K is soil erodibility factor , L is slope length factor, S is slope steepness factor, C is cover and management factor, and P is erosion control practice factor. To run the RUSLE model in GIS, first, rainfall raster layer, soil, slope, Digital Elevation Model, and also layers of soil protection range were created. Each of the involved factors was calculated in separate units in the basin level. In this research, Gharesou basin was analyzed based on raster network data with 30 meters cell size, because, from one hand it's small
enough to show heterogeneity of the basin and on the other hand, it matches pixel dimensions of landsat satellite images.
The results of land-cover changes have revealed a decrease in dense forest areas, low forest areas and the mixture of orchard, forest and pastures in a thirty years period. According to the results of RUSLE, changes of the classes indicate a general trend to the soil loss in the basin. Therefore, Gharesou basin is a basin with increasing soil erosion potential. In the plain and coastal plain areas of the basin, that is the mainly cultivated area, the amount of erosion is different from the other areas, and soil loss process is decreasing. It's due to the changes of cultivation method from traditional to modern, increase of irrigated farming area, choosing more environmentally friendly plants, and also, increase in the area of cities and villages from 7.14 percent to 29.04 percent during 30 years. In the study classes, for output of RUSLE model, in every 3 years of study, the maximum area relates to the classes of 100 to 200 Ton per year that is more seen in the mountainous regions. In these regions, all factors except vegetation are toward soil loss. Also, during 30 years, the amount of dense vegetation decreased from 34.56 to 31.55. In fact the only factor in protecting soil in (prone to erosion) areas has given its place to less effective vegetation, so, the area of this region has increased and Gharesou basin is in danger of soil loss in mountainous and forest parts. Also, areas with more than 200 Ton in hectare, with the lowest amount, have had a tangible increase during 30 year of study and its amount has increased from 11.74 to 12.50. These areas are usually located in mountainous parts with no vegetation. Also, the average of soil erosion potential estimated in Gharesou basin for 1985, 2000 and 2015 is 102.02, 103.11, and 103.76 (ton per hectare per year). This amount was found in the sub-basins too and except the sub-basin 4 located in coastal plain areas of the basin, with farming use, the amount of other sub-basins is increasing. According to the results of study, mountainous parts of Gharesou basin, has the most damage due to the accumulation of involved factors in the potential increase of soil loss. So, the necessity of watershed management is observed. Also modification of cultivation pattern and soil conservation training in farming lands of foothills and hillsides are required.
Keywords: RUSLE Model, soil erosion, Gharesou, Remote Sensing, land-cover changes
Land use and land cover (LUC) change associated with climatic and geomorphologic conditions of the area have an accelerating impact on the land degradation. Natural as well as human-induced land use land cover change (LUCC) has significant impacts on regional soil degradation, including soil erosion, soil acidification, nutrient leaching, and organic matter depletion. Since the last century, soil erosion accelerated by human activities has become a serious environmental problem. It has a manifold environmental impact by negatively affecting water supply, reservoir storage capacity, agricultural productivity, and freshwater ecology of the region. In recent years, many researchers have highlighted the environmental consequences of soil erosion.
Soil erosion estimation at a regional scale is influenced by the complexity of the soil erosion process and the availability of data describing the soil erosion factors. In the last decade, regional and national level assessments of soil erosion were carried out using different approaches, ranging from indicator or factor-based approaches to process-based models. However, the revised universal soil loss (RUSLE) and its modifications are still widely used because of its simplicity and a greater availability of input parameters.
Gharesou basin is one of the sub-basins of Gharesou, it suffered from severe erosion in some areas over the past years. This erosion has occurred for different reasons and one of them is land use change and weak management of water and soil resources. The purpose of this research is to investigate the effects of land-cover changes on the potential of soil erosion in Gharesou Basin, a sub-basin of Gorganrood, in Golestan province. For this, we have employed RUSLE Model and used landsat satellite images from the sensors of TM, ETM, and OLI for 1985, 2000, and 2015. The potential soil erosion in this study was estimated using RUSLE model, which can be described using following equation:
A = R × K × LS × C × P
where A is amount of soil erosion calculated in tons per hectare per year, R is rainfall factor , K is soil erodibility factor , L is slope length factor, S is slope steepness factor, C is cover and management factor, and P is erosion control practice factor. To run the RUSLE model in GIS, first, rainfall raster layer, soil, slope, Digital Elevation Model, and also layers of soil protection range were created. Each of the involved factors was calculated in separate units in the basin level. In this research, Gharesou basin was analyzed based on raster network data with 30 meters cell size, because, from one hand it's small
enough to show heterogeneity of the basin and on the other hand, it matches pixel dimensions of landsat satellite images.
The results of land-cover changes have revealed a decrease in dense forest areas, low forest areas and the mixture of orchard, forest and pastures in a thirty years period. According to the results of RUSLE, changes of the classes indicate a general trend to the soil loss in the basin. Therefore, Gharesou basin is a basin with increasing soil erosion potential. In the plain and coastal plain areas of the basin, that is the mainly cultivated area, the amount of erosion is different from the other areas, and soil loss process is decreasing. It's due to the changes of cultivation method from traditional to modern, increase of irrigated farming area, choosing more environmentally friendly plants, and also, increase in the area of cities and villages from 7.14 percent to 29.04 percent during 30 years. In the study classes, for output of RUSLE model, in every 3 years of study, the maximum area relates to the classes of 100 to 200 Ton per year that is more seen in the mountainous regions. In these regions, all factors except vegetation are toward soil loss. Also, during 30 years, the amount of dense vegetation decreased from 34.56 to 31.55. In fact the only factor in protecting soil in (prone to erosion) areas has given its place to less effective vegetation, so, the area of this region has increased and Gharesou basin is in danger of soil loss in mountainous and forest parts. Also, areas with more than 200 Ton in hectare, with the lowest amount, have had a tangible increase during 30 year of study and its amount has increased from 11.74 to 12.50. These areas are usually located in mountainous parts with no vegetation. Also, the average of soil erosion potential estimated in Gharesou basin for 1985, 2000 and 2015 is 102.02, 103.11, and 103.76 (ton per hectare per year). This amount was found in the sub-basins too and except the sub-basin 4 located in coastal plain areas of the basin, with farming use, the amount of other sub-basins is increasing. According to the results of study, mountainous parts of Gharesou basin, has the most damage due to the accumulation of involved factors in the potential increase of soil loss. So, the necessity of watershed management is observed. Also modification of cultivation pattern and soil conservation training in farming lands of foothills and hillsides are required.
Keywords: RUSLE Model, soil erosion, Gharesou, Remote Sensing, land-cover changes
Mrs Hajar Pakbaz, Dr Mahmood Khosravi, Dr Tagi Tavousi, Dr Payman Mahmoudi,
Volume 5, Issue 2 (9-2018)
Volume 5, Issue 2 (9-2018)
Abstract
As 7 Stations include; Ardebil, Sarab, Shahrekord, Ahar, Takab, Zanjan, and Saghez were experiments on average every year less than 30 days with thermal stress. From these 7 stations, Ardebil and Sarab regions, having 3 and 7 days with thermal stress, respectively, have the least amount of days with heat stress. All the days with the heat stresses obtained for these stations have been the days of the first class of heat stress map, and all of them were randomly distributed over the warm period of the year.
But in contrast to this stations that had the fewest days of thermal stress, southern Iranian stations, especially those stationed at the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman Sea coasts, were the most frequent days of heat stress.
The two Jask and Chabahar stations with the annual average of 304 and 301 days, with the highest thermal stress, were the most frequent regions of Iran. The lower latitudes, lower elevation, higher temperatures and relative humidity are factors that make the conditions for having the most frequencies of days with heat stress in this part of Iran.
The spatial pattern of five classes this index also show different patterns in comparison with each other so that as all stations in Iran experience at least 3 days of thermal stress in the first class during the year. But with increasing intensity classes, the number of stations that experience the conditions of these five classes over a year will be reduced. As for the second class, 16.2% of the stations, for the third class, 55.4% for the fourth class, 83.7 %, and finally for the fifth class, 90.5% of stations, do not experience comfort in any way during one year. Finally, with regard to the important role of the elevations in the spatial distribution, the relationship between the total frequency of days with thermal stress and elevation was modeled using classical linear regression model. The results of this model showed that per 100 meters above sea level, 9 days from the total frequency of days associated with Iran's thermal stress is reduced. This downward trend is such that there is no thermal stress in Iran at 2300 m above sea level. In other words, the height of 2300 meters is the elevation border between the occurrence and absence of days with thermal stress in Iran.
Miss Khatereh Azhdary Mamooreh., Mr Amir Gandomkar, Mr Keivan Kabiri,
Volume 5, Issue 3 (12-2018)
Volume 5, Issue 3 (12-2018)
Abstract
Sea surface temperature is one of the most effective physical parameters that affects the health of coral reefs communities.High frequency of the bleaching phenomenon has extensively occurred in the Persian Gulf in the recent years due to the increase in temperature and increased changes in the sea surface temperature (SST) resulting in great mortality in the coral communities. The aim of this research is to determinate a temperature threshold which may function as a warning for the incidence anticipation of this phenomenon. Data on the variation of the SST that has been taken from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Information related to bleaching in the regions of the southern Persian Gulf was extracted from the published papers and reports. Each of these sources also has been extracted for a 35-year statistical course (1980-2015) and by the index of degree heating weeks (DHWs) determined for the same statistical course in this research for the assessment and anticipation of bleaching phenomenon. For reviewing of the work accuracy, Peirce Skill Score (PSS) technique was used to quantify the accuracy of previous and subsequent anticipations. According to the derived results, DHWs threshold for the study region was determined to be 7.13. the threshold 7.13 for DHW is suggested as a caution threshold for bleaching incidence in southern regions of the Persian Gulf that is whenever the values of weekly positive temperature DHW show number 7.13 and higher, there is an expectation of bleaching phenomenon incidence of corals for these regions. And the score of PSS= 0.72 derived from the amounts of H= 7/8= 0.87 for the Hit rate and F= 4/26= 0.15 for the False alarm rate of the bleaching was obtained for the southern regions of Persian Gulf and study region. In northern regions of the Persian Gulf the threshold 5.3 for DHW is suggested as a caution threshold for bleaching incidence. The rate of pss = 0.62 derived from the amounts of (3/4 = 0.75) for the Hit rate and ( 3/23 = 0.13) for the False alarm rate of the bleaching was obtained for the northern regions of Persian Gulf and study region. Difference in DHWs values of the south and north of Persian Gulf shows more resistance of the corals of south Persian Gulf against DHW changes and SST anomalies. Also the amounts of DHW alongside SST can help more completely to the anticipation of bleaching phenomenon.
, , , ,
Volume 5, Issue 4 (3-2019)
Volume 5, Issue 4 (3-2019)
Abstract
Extended Abstract
Cold and frost is one of the most important climatic parameters in the agricultural climate, and the damage caused by them reduces the possibility of producing many agricultural and horticultural products in vulnerable areas. Cold and frost is one of the climatic hazards that annually causes damage to various activities. The agricultural sector is the most important part of the damage that is most seriously damaged by frost. Cold and frosty weather for many crops and gardens results in harmful and destructive consequences, in some years billions of rials damage farmers, farmers and, ultimately, the national interests of the country. Considering that the northwest region of Iran suffers a lot of financial losses each year due to atmospheric hazards especially cold and frost. Identification and zoning of areas with high potential of cold and frost hazard and prediction of their occurrence can provide valuable and valuable information for preventing and mitigating damages. In this study using HadCM3 global model under two scenarios A2 and B1 and The LARS-WG microscope model is dealt with this.
It is important to check the time of occurrence and predict their future changes. For this purpose, general atmospheric circulation (GCM) models are designed that can simulate future climate parameters. In this study, the output data of the HadCM3 general circulation model under two scenarios of A2 and B1 were analyzed by LARS-WG statistical method in 21 synoptic stations located in northwest of Iran. The results of this study were based on the base period (1980-1989) and The 2020 decade (2030-2011) was evaluated for two climate variables: minimum temperature and maximum temperature. Then the history of the first and last frost and cold of autumn and spring was extracted and their date of occurrence was calculated in the future.
The monthly average of the minimum temperature of the stations studied in the course of the 2020s and the base period shows that the temperature has been increased according to both scenarios and increased in all months and at most study stations compared to the base period. The maximum changes in the minimum temperature in the study area are based on the average scenarios in this decade related to Abhar, Ardebil, Khoy and Urumieh stations at 0.8 degrees Celsius; In fact, the minimum temperatures that occurred at these stations during the base period have not been observed in the next period and the heating process has shown that its rate in the region of the study area in the 2020s is between 0.4 and 0.8 It will be in the base period. The results indicate an increase in the monthly average of the minimum and maximum daily temperatures in the upcoming period to about 0.8 degrees Celsius. The results of the first and last glacial survey in the decade of 2020 indicate that the first glacial precipitate of autumn occurs between 2 and 9 days later, with the least change in the history of frost occurring in two stations of Qazvin and Meshkinshahr each with 2 The change day is relative to the base period. The last frost of late spring also will be 3-10 days earlier on the surface of the region. However, the duration of the ice free period will be reduced at all stations, which is the highest decrease for Khoy station with 16 days, then the stations of Urmia and Ardebil each Two with 14 days and the lowest decrease is due to Meshkinshahr station for 6 days. Based on the results of changes in the date of early ice ages, changes are less than the late frost. Based on this, the study of the condition of glaciers and serma in most of the studied stations shows that the first frost and autumn frost in the coming period will start earlier and the cold and the frostbite will end sooner. The least changes were observed in the south-east of the study area, Meshkinshahr and Sarab regions, and the most changes in the glacial period were related to Khoy, Urmia, Tabriz and Ahar areas. According to the results of most studied areas, averaging between 10 and 12 days decrease in length The ice age will experience the base course.
The results indicate an increase in the monthly average of the minimum and maximum daily temperatures in the upcoming period to about 0.8 C. Based on this, the study of the condition of glaciers and serma in most of the studied stations shows that the first frost and autumn frost in the coming period will start earlier and the cold and the frostbite will end sooner. Also, the length of the cold and freezing period is decreasing, which may reflect the consequences of climate change at study stations. The results of this study are based on the studies of Grasick and Dodwilich (2015) in Poland, Medella et al. (2016) in Texas, Hosseini and Ahmadi (1395) in Saqez, Aqa Shariatmadari et al. (1395) in West Iran, Sobhani et al. (1396). ) In Ardebil and Khalili et al. (1396) in Iran.
عزیزی Azizi, افراخته Afrakhteh, عزیزپور Azizpour,
Volume 5, Issue 4 (3-2019)
Volume 5, Issue 4 (3-2019)
Abstract
Land cover changes as a basic factor in environmental change act and has become a global threat. In this research, changes in land cover in rural tourism areas by neural networks, Markov chains in software ArcGIS, ENVI, Terrset using the TM and OLI satellite imagery, Landsat Satellite was surveyed for a period of 30 years for three periods of 1985, 2000, and 2015. The findings of the first stage show that land cover changes at the period 1985-2015, were classified in five class residential spaces, Commercial, Green, Empty and mountainous spaces and communication networks. In this study, the area of mountainous and empty spaces (13.25%) has decreased and in contrast, has decreased the amount of green spaces (6.221%), Residential (5.258%), commercial (1.264%) and communication networks (0.529%). Changing land cover as one of the most important environmental risks has been directly influenced by the Commodification phenomenon. Also, the findings of the prediction using the Markov-CA chain showed that with the continuation of the current and excessive loading on the ground, on the horizon of 2030, green cover (Agriculture, gardens and grassland, garden and residential) and wild land and mountain cover have been reduced and to cover residential and commercial villas will be added. Based on research findings concluded that land cover changes in rural tourism areas in order to achieve more profits has become incompatible applications. This change in land cover, in addition to the economic, social impacts, has led to the formation of environmental hazards in the Bharang area. Developing tourism in the study area by removing agricultural land from the production cycle has led to an increase in urban activities and the formation of new activities (service, Residential Garden, residential villa) instead of traditional activities(agriculture and livestock) that are economical. And by loading too much ecological power tolerable land, while posing environmental hazards, causing incompatible activities next to each other, they do not match. Therefore, tourism, which gradually formed over the years and now it has become a part of rural texture, Spatial Conflict and heterogeneity two strains has created for them. Spatial Conflict created, due to changes in land cover and acceptance of incompatible activities that derive from human-nature relationships. This means that the rapid and unpredictable trend of tourism development, the rural landscape has encountered a problem and with changes in land cover, has led to inconsistencies between different activities and eventually has shaped the Spatial Conflict.
Fardin Saberi Louyeh, Bohlol Alijani, Shahriar Khaledi,
Volume 6, Issue 1 (5-2019)
Volume 6, Issue 1 (5-2019)
Abstract
. Caspian Sea south coast future climate change estimations through regional climate model
many physical of the procedures related to climate change are not perceived thoroughly. Scientific knowledge used to show those procedures completely, and to analyses forecasts is so complex, since most current studies about climate physical model have been done through semi experimental and random models and most of the current analysis techniques are still going through early stages. One of the important aspects of this study is modeling physical procedures of sea level rise geographical pattern, which is used practically for SLR threat evaluation of special geographical location, meaning Caspian basin. Since Caspian basin is a closed sea, it is heavily influenced by climate change and meanwhile is changing due to physical level and environmental change. It is necessary to define Caspian coast climate change possibility with specific focus on climatology and meteorology fine data, also to define the scale of sea level fluctuations for the sake of exact planning in different fields. This study aims at presenting a new dynamic method, via using an integrated model system named SIMCLIM, which can clarify SLR satellite changes well.
According to scientific examination existing in this study, based on scatter scenario 4.5 RCP and 8.5 RCP for the following years, until 2100, temperature and precipitation change proposal have been presented. On one hand, Caspian coastal climate change analysis and estimation were based on climate patterns and water flows in the form of regional climate statistical model in order to simulate and forecast, on the other hand surveying chronological changes of Caspian sea coast slope with satellite height measurement was done to measure sea surface height fluctuations The present study has used SIMCLIM model for the first time in order to clarify Caspian sea level changes, elements, and effective climate reasons, all simultaneously in one project. The project base is according to coastal systems and procedures. Coast line shore change simulations are based in Bruun law.
In future the frequency and intensity of extreme events temperature and precipitation will increase. Extreme events illustrate changes in extreme temperature and precipitation measures, in comparison with the base period of 1981-2010 which convey precipitation sum or the temperature beyond 95 percentile of base period. Temperature and precipitation coefficient of variation for the whole Caspian basin is positive and it varies from 25 to 88 percent. A disordered pattern is dominating south basin of the sea. Sea level changes, considering vertical earth movements, which is 2 mm in a year, resulted from subsidence of Caspian pit seabed have been obtained for both scenarios. In general, annual sea level average while ignoring seasonal changes, is increasing consistently and it was calculated 1.22 cm each year according to high estimation procedure in scenario 8.5 RCP and it was 0.93 cm based on scenario 4.5 RCP. Predicted results were compared with real results of base20-year period from 1995-2015. Base period results in three levels of sensitivity of low, mid, high shows 8.4, 10.1, and 11.8 cm rise; after comparing them with model forecast results, meaningful coordination at the level of 95 percent was found out. In both scenarios, all over the Caspian shoreline water advance and destruction will exist. In the worst case scenario of 8.5 RCP of 2030, current coast will decrease about 23 meters and in 2060 it will be about 53 and in 2100, there will be 117 meters advance towards land.
Precipitation and temperature percent for 2030, 2060, 2100 will change increasingly. Spatial variability and annul coefficient of variation are various in different regions. North, western north, eastern north and east will include the least temperature fluctuations, and the highest percent of precipitation with the highest coefficient of variation all convey chronological period precipitation distribution with disordered accumulation and more local difference in this region in comparison with other regions. Then Caucasus mountainous region will have the highest increase in precipitation with a suitable scatteredness, during a year. The southern part of Caspian Sea will be with the highest increase in temperature and the least amount of increase in precipitation in percent. High coefficient of variation in this area illustrates abnormal and disordered pattern on the threshold of precipitation for both scenarios.
fluctuations in sea level based on subsidence of Caspian pit seabed was calculated.In general, average annual sea level is increasing which will be 1.22 cm, per year for scenario RCP 8.5 and 0.93 cm for scenario 4.5. Due to incapability of world community in decreasing releasing greenhouse gases, it is expected scenario that 8.5 RCP to come to reality.
Caspian Sea shoreline is influenced by water advance and destruction. The difference between two scenarios in 2060 will be 3 meters and in 2100 will be 12 meters. Instinctually, such advances in coasts with less depth and less slope will be more. This study suggests that coastal changes are inevitable. However, this region inhabitant owns no systems or no systems have not yet developed to aid them be able to adopt with the climate changes.
Keywords: Sea level rise, South Caspian basin, Extreme event, Coefficient of variations, shoreline.
The effect of Urban Development on Watershed Hydrological Properties (case study: Tajrish Watershed)
Dr Seyedmusa Hosseini, Miss Samaneh Riahi, Mr Abdolkarim Veysi,
Volume 6, Issue 1 (5-2019)
Volume 6, Issue 1 (5-2019)
Abstract
The effect of Urban Development on Watershed Hydrological Properties (case study: Tajrish Watershed)
Throughout the human history, societies and rivers have been closely linked, so that the human civilization began from the riverside (Stevaux et al. 2009 (. The quantitative and qualitative characteristic of river is vulnerable to land-use changes (Kang et al. 2010). Natural and urban watersheds are influenced by the rapid land use change due to urban development (Furusho et al. 2013). Hence the importance of land use as an environmental variable have made its changes as a major issue in environmental changes and sustainable development) Verburg et al. 2009).
The development of urbanization and industrialization of cities and communities have undesirable effects on the hydrological response of watersheds. It increases the magnitude of runoff and contamination, reduces the base flow and the groundwater recharge. Hence, urban authorities are urged to pay more attention to the environmental damaging effects of the urbanization process and the increase of construction. In this regard, attention should be paid to the effect of type of land cover and land use on urban runoff and hydrological changes in surface flow. Tehran as the largest metropolis in Iran has ascending trend of land cover and land use changes due to the growing population.
In this research, the effect of urban development on the hydrological characteristics of the Tajrish sub-watershed (in Darband watershed) located north of Tehran has been investigated. Results of this study indicated that the river Darband is exposed to hydrological hazard due to human need for space and land use and land cover changes. The studied area is affected by decreasing pervious area, increase of runoff coefficient, and change in water quality parameters.
Darband River watershed consists of two streams of Darband and Golabdareh which are considered as the major rivers of the Tehran-Karaj Basin. This river originates from the mountains of the Tochal located in northern Tehran. The catchment area of Darband River in the studied area is 39.88 square kilometers.
In this study, aerial photos of years 1345, 1358 and also
and IkONOS images in year 2011 were used to detect the changes in land cover and land use in the Tajrish watershed. Pas-Ghale sub-watershed in upstream of Tajrish was selected as benchmark since its land use doesn't affected by human interventions. SCS-CN method developed by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) was used to estimate the quantitative changes in surface storage and runoff volume. Man-Kendall test was used for temporal trend detection of discharge and chemical parameters of surface water and also. The change of water type was identified annually using the Piper diagram in the aqQA software. Frequency analysis was carried out for peak discharge data using the weibull’s empirical method.During three considered periods, the curve numbers (CN) and runoff coefficient (C) in Tajrish watershed significantly increased. Significant trend was also observed for the chemical parameters of surface flow in Tajrish. While the surface storage and initial abstraction ratio (λ) indicate decreasing trend. Relationships of CN and λ with rainfall depth (P) were also computed for both studied watersheds. According to the Piper diagram, the distribution of ions in the cation diagrams at both Maghsudbeik and Pasghaleh stations is generally more directed toward sodium. In the triangles of anions, both of the stations studied tend to show more calcium biocarbon content. Presence of sodium ion in the surface water is due to igneous formations in the watershed. The surface water in Pasghale station, indicate a neutral type of water. Whereas, saline water type is detected in the Maghsudbeik station. The increase of urban utilization over the past three decades could be the main cause of changes in the hydro chemical characteristics and water type along the Darband River.
Investigation of land use changes in the Darband watershed indicate that the impervious surface has increased during years of 1996 to 2011. Results also indicate that the CN and λ values in Pas-ghale watershed are more correlated to Pin compared with ones observed in Tajrish. The results also reveal that hydrological modeling in watersheds undergoes land use changes and urbanization will result in imprecision results.
Many chemical parameters of the water quality of Darband River have been increasing at the Maghsudbeik station such as Chlorine, sulfate, sodium, electric conductivity and TDS and in the coming years, it can be considered inappropriate in terms of agriculture in the water class.
Keywords: Darband River, land cover and land use, Piper diagram, SCS-CN.
Mr Seyed Ali Badri, Mr Hossain Karimzadeh, Mis. Sima Saadi, Mis Nasrin Kazemi,
Volume 6, Issue 1 (5-2019)
Volume 6, Issue 1 (5-2019)
Abstract
Analysis of Rural Settlements Resilience against Earthquake
Case Study: Marivan County
Iran is a seismic prone country located over the Himalayan-Alpine seismic belt. Striking earthquakes during the past years and decades are strong proofs for vulnerability of rural areas in this country; loss of lives, damage to buildings, even demolishing villages have been experienced in Iran rural areas. All these fatal effects are evidences to make villages more resilience and strengthen their structures because in the case of vulnerable structures, earthquake can be tremendously destructive. Therefore, losses of live and property can be avoided through making resilience rural social, economic and physical structure like construction of buildings that sway rather than break under the stress of an earthquake. Making villages resilience are directly related to saving rural residents lives and their property. Briefly, reaching or maintaining rural areas capacities to an acceptable level are the main purpose of this study by analyzing mentioned structures. This study conducted in Marivan rural settlements which exposed to earthquake.
According to Morgan Table, 310 samples responded to the questionnaires. The samples of this study were selected by chance from 6 districts and 18 villages. The main methods for analysis of collected data were Dimatel, ANP and Statictical analysis by SPSS. The results of ANP and Dimatel analyses led to the determination of relation among the factors. It should be noted we used Delfi method for this part. Moreover, for the final part ANOVA analysis is used by the authors.
All around the world, countries have different approaches to deal with hazards in order to mitigate fatal affects. In fact, the goal of all management practices is to reduce hazard impacts. Iran faces a variety of hazards because of placing in a special geographical position; in this regard earthquake is the most important one. Resiliency approach can improve the flexibility of rural settlements through strengthen the capabilities of them and reduce their vulnerability. In the present study, analysis of rural settlements resilience against earthquake has been investigated. The results show that the resiliency is lower than the average in the studied villages. Also, there was a significant difference among the studied villages in terms of the resiliency against earthquake. The findings are consistent with the results of Nouri and Sepahvand in 2016 and Rezaei et al., in 2014.
Considering the analysis of data and ANP analysis of the internal and external factors in a general and separate way, the studied villages of Marivan city can be considered as non-resilience structures; in this regard, the most important reason is the inappropriate condition in the internal factors of rural settlements. The poor quality of construction and the inadequate structure of buildings must be considered, as well. Another obvious reason is the existence of eroded texture in this area. According to external factors, relief does not cover rural areas and led to reduce the resilience of rural settlements. Investigating the resilience of rural settlements based on external factors not only indicates the inappropriate situation of rural structure in this analysis, but also it proves a more favorable situation than internal factors. The findings show that structure and the amount of structure confinement in decrease the tissue texture of rural settlements play a profound role; changing these factors requires a long time and long-term planning. Regarding the post hoc test, variance analysis suggests the highest resiliency in Zarivar with an average of 2.99 and the lowest survival rate in KhavumirAbad rural district with an average of 1.87. Moreover, according to the one-sample T-Test, the socio-cultural dimension with a mean of 3.05 has the best situation in terms of resiliency against earthquake in the studied villages. For improving resiliency in the studied villages, authors’ suggests are including: managing and organizing preparation measures and response along with effective actions to reduce the risks of earthquake and providing a crisis management department; strengthen scientific and research studies to identify and reduce the risks; applying the rules to retrofit the buildings and increasing the safety factors in new construction; mapping the vulnerabilities in rural areas; increasing people participation and preparing them to deal with an emergency situation caused by an earthquake.
Keywords: Resiliency, Rural Settlements, Earthquake, Marivan County
Mr Ali Hasanzadeh, Mr Hooshmand Ataei, Mr Nader Parvin, Mr Amir Gandomkar,
Volume 6, Issue 1 (5-2019)
Volume 6, Issue 1 (5-2019)
Abstract
Agricultural crops have damaged a lot due to the aftermath of late spring frost, and because low temperatures have damaging effects on agricultural production, it is essential to anticipate and prevent potential damages. Often, atmospheric temperature variations are very urgent due to the high temperature of the systems and the plants cannot adapt themselves with severe oscillations and, have been damaged. The aim of this study was to analyze the climate of the spring frost in Kermanshah, identifying the sea level equations and the late spring freezing frost of the period from 1990 to 2015. This survey has been done to determine the period of the freezing phenomenon, determine the minimum daily temperature of 7 stations placed in Kermanshah, Hamedan, and Ilam. After analyzing the data of spring frost freezing of Kermanshah province using the main component analysis technique and hierarchical clustering method, the most common 10 patterns of late spring coldness of the area were studied and determined. In 10 resulting cluster, 8 clusters were related to the high-pressure pattern of Siberia. From the total 91 days of spring frost freezing in Kermanshah province (79% (72 days)) is due to the high rainfall of Siberia, 12% (11 days) is due to the Mediterranean climate and 9% (8 days) is due to the Van lake climate. These pressure patterns were named according to the location of their deposition, which caused the loss of the environment and the freezing frost of the spring.
Dr Behzad Rayegani,
Volume 6, Issue 2 (9-2019)
Volume 6, Issue 2 (9-2019)
Abstract
Investigating the threats of mangrove forests
with the help of remotely sensed data
Behzad Rayegani: Assistant Professor of College of Environment, Department of Environment
Mangroves are a group of trees and shrubs that live in the coastal intertidal zone. Mangrove forests are very important because they are known as natural heritage and crucial in protecting coastal ecosystems. Mangrove forests stabilize the coastline, reducing erosion from storm surges, currents, waves, and tides. The intricate root system of mangroves also makes these forests attractive to fish and other organisms seeking food and shelter from predators. So, they are ideal places to support the elements of seafood networks. However, these forests are in danger of degradation because of rapid population growth, poor planning and unsustainable economic development. In the process of regenerating an ecosystem, it is necessary to identify the precursors of the threat, to consider the means to eliminate these threats. Therefore, identifying the threatening factors of the mangrove forest ecosystem is the first step in the restoration and protection of the ecosystem.
This study aims to investigate the change and the destruction in Mangrove forests and to identify threatening forces in the Hara Protected Area. Remote sensing is now widely used in studies of ecosystem changes because its information is available for the past, and there are many highly-developed techniques for change detection through remote sensing. Therefore, in order to identify the threatening factors of mangrove forests, remote sensing techniques were used to identify changed areas during a 15-year period. Images of ETM+ and OLI sensor from 2001 to 2015 were collected in the Hara Protected Area (Khorekhoran International Wetland). Given that we have used the multiple-date remote sensor data in this study, it was necessary to use absolute atmospheric correction methods for radiometric harmonization of data. So, with the aid of the ERDAS IMAGINE 2014 software, the Atmospheric and Topographic Correction (ATCOR) model was applied to all data. Subsequently, due to the difference in radiometric resolution of the OLI sensor with the ETM+ sensor, the output of ATCOR of both sensors was stretched into 8-bit data in order to eliminate the existing divergence in radiometric resolution. Also, based on spatial information, one of the image of OLI sensor at the current time was corrected geometrically, and then other images were registered to this image to eliminate geometric errors. There are many ways to detect changes with the help of remote sensing data, but we used two widely used techniques in this study: 1) post-classification comparison; 2) Change detection techniques of Algebra. Totally four different change detection methods were applied to these images. Change detection techniques of Algebra image method include image difference, image ratio, regression and post-classification comparison were used. At first, with the knowledge of the studied area, by combining the two supervised and unsupervised classification (hybrid method), the pixels that were known as mangrove forests were identified in both time periods of study. Then pixels with decreasing trend were determined by post-classification comparison method. From the image of the mangrove forests with the logic of Boolean (OR), a mask of mangrove was obtained, which showed the areas of mangroves during the two periods. This mask was used to make the second group of methods for determining changes (Algebra method) applied to the data. By doing this, in all algebra methods, the histogram showed the normal distribution. Finally, the vegetation spectral indices were applied to the data and their coefficient of variation was obtained in the Boolean mask area. Among these indices, NDVI showed better performance, so the algebra operation was used for this index. Accordingly, areas with decrease, increase and no change trends were visited and then overall accuracy and kappa coefficients were determined.
The results showed that the method of post classification comparison has the highest accuracy in the monitoring of vegetation changes in mangrove forests. This method with a total accuracy of over 93% and a kappa of more than 0.9 showed the highest accuracy in the detection methods of the changes, therefore, in the final examination and prioritization of the regions, this method was used. The surveys showed that the smuggling of fuel due to pour gasoline into the water and camel grazing are the most important destructive factors in the mangrove forest. After determining the rate degradation in four regions, these regions were ranked in order to carry out reclamation and restoration projects.
In the case of intelligent use of the capabilities of remote sensing, one can easily identify the threatening factors of an ecosystem. In the case of mangroves, the only limiting factor is tidal conditions. It is therefore recommended that, as in this study, images are chosen to determine the changes that are in a same tidal state
Keywords: Remotely Sensed change detection, Image Algebra Change Detection, Post-classification comparison, Determination of thresholds
Dr. Sahar Nedae Tousi, Ms Roza Hosseini Nejad,
Volume 6, Issue 2 (9-2019)
Volume 6, Issue 2 (9-2019)
Abstract
Resilience, as a concept to confront abnormalities, surprises and unexpected changes in recent years has been raised as the ability of places, societies, and systems to respond to the dangers of tensions and pressures; so that the system can quickly return to pre-stressed situation, threats It accepts the future and confronts them. Central region of Iran according to the zoning studies of the national physical plan of Iran, including three provinces of Isfahan, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari and Yazd, in a desert climate with many crises in the permafrost environment that has disturbed the state of resilience of the region, and as a result the scheme and target application regional resilience on policy and planning to reduce vulnerability and to cope with various trans-regional crises. Despite the fact that the concept of resilience at the level beyond the city has become apparent, there is still no clear framework for measuring this situation at the regional level. Based on this research, it is believed by the trans-regional and multi-dimensional nature of the resilience that by modifying and applying the concept of resilience to the integrated and multi-dimensional at the regional level, an appropriate framework for status measurement regional resilience in the form of a composite index and thereby risk reduction planning and promoting the resilience of the presentation To give. In this regard, the major purpose of the research is to develop an optimal framework for assessing, measuring and ranking the resilience situation in the central region of Iran. The results show that Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province have the highest resilience and then there are two provinces of Isfahan and Yazd, respectively. In the meantime, Yazd province has the lowest resilience among the provinces of the central region; therefore, it is necessary to focus on planning and allocating resources to promote and improve priority sectors. Responding to resilience agendas requires the adoption of transregional planning and decision-making approaches such as environmental regionalism.
Ahmad Porahmad, Hossein Hataminezhad, Keramatollah Ziyari, Seaideh Alijani,
Volume 6, Issue 2 (9-2019)
Volume 6, Issue 2 (9-2019)
Abstract
A new Approach to Urban livability, Thermal Comfort as the Primitive Condition to enhance the livability: Case study, District 22 of Tehran.
Ahmad Porahmad: Professor of Urban Geography and Planning, University of Tehran
Hossain Hataminezhad: Professor of Urban Geography and Planning, University of Tehran
keramatollah Ziyari: Professor of Urban Geography and Planning, University of Tehran
Saeideh Alijani*: PhD candidate of Urban Geography and Planning, University of Tehran
The concept of urban livability is defined as the quality of life and wellbeing of urban residents. That is the interaction of people, environment and built environment. The residents can achieve happy life and well-being only when the nature surrounding them is happy and healthy. According to the range of welfare concept there is a spectrum of quantitative indicators that directly measure (human body temperature, heart rate, air temperature, wind speed ...) and qualitative indicators such as quality of life, pleasure and joy. The comfort and ease of environment are in the middle of the spectrum, in other words, the intrinsic concept of ambient comfort is environment. The inadequacy of natural environment will affect both indicators in the spectrum and lead to citizens' dissatisfaction and decline in social welfare and threaten the health of humans. Living in a salty marsh or very dry hot climate is never happy and satisfied. Accordingly, many concepts such as living quality, living environment, and quality of place, quality of life and sustainability are often used interchangeably with livability).
This research is trying to weight the natural environment at least equal to the other two components of the sustainable development triangle. Among the components of natural environment, climate is playing the most important and significant role. Urban climate affects all aspects of city including building interiors, city architecture and open spaces. Thermal comfort of open spaces promote the social life and interrelations of residents. Therefore, in order to promote the social relations and economic activities especial consideration should be paid to open spaces. Accordingly, two types of data were measured for calculating the thermal comfort in the district 22. Subjective and objective evaluations which present qualitative and quantitative data. Objective data includes micrometeorological measurements with mobile instruments. Subjective data evaluated actual sensation vote or perception vote of thermal comfort by people using the urban open spaces. To this goal, questionnaires were prepared and scattered through space users simultaneously with micrometeorological measurements. Subjective data evaluated perceptual sensation vote of thermal comfort by people using the urban open spaces in three hot days of August 2018. Nine points are selected for site measuring and field survey which are representative of two types of urban open spaces in this research:1) Urban park and 2) street. Four cardinal points were chosen adjacent to the Shohadaye Khalije Fars Lake inside the park located in sidewalk pathway around the Lake. Other five points were selected in streets with different orientation and aspect ratio through the district. The physiologically equivalent temperature (PET), mean radiant temperature (Tmrt), sky view factor (SVF) and aspect ratio (H/W) are the most important indicators in this research which were calculated for evaluating comfort in the district.
Results showed that urban open spaces in the district are discomfort and expose people to the extreme heat stress; over 40°C. This determines that, the natural environment especially around the Shohadaye Khalije Fars is not comfort. The questionnaire also indicated that people felt warm and dissatisfied.
There is a high linear correlation between thermal comfort and mean radiant temperature and globe temperature. Therefore, it is concluded that thermal comfort in the district, is directly affected by urban areas. Also in the streets with low SVF and high aspect ratio, PET were calculated more comfortable than other streets. Point 5 at Naghibzade street, confirmed the effect of urban geometry on thermal comfort. Otherwise, the lack of tremendous trees for creating shade is visible especially around the lake. The high linear correlation between Tmrt and SVF around the lake confirmed the openness of the area and the high amount of solar radiation. Therefore, planting more trees for creating the shade effect is necessary.
The perceptual analysis of thermal comfort indicated that by increasing of PET, people felt warmer. However, in a city like Tehran, people are more resistance to the heat stress. In addition, the characteristics of human body strongly depends on psychology and individual features and is a hard issue to predict. Otherwise, the people who felt warm were more than those felt slightly warm which indicates dissatisfaction of people. To be noticed that, thermal comfort of above 40 °C in summer is an alarm to urban planner and designers to rethink about climate consideration and global warming as a most important urban challenge in the district seriously. Besides, the consideration of thermal comfort and urban geometry should be imbedded into the comprehensive plan. This research proved that the climatic consideration for improving the quality of life and livability is important and urban designers and planners should rethink and review the comprehensive plan of Tehran to make a livable and sustainable city in the future.
Keywords: urban livability, climate comfort, sustainable development, urban sustainability, urban geometry, physiologically equivalent temperature, district 22 of Tehran.
Dr Abbas Ali Vali, Dr Sayyed Hojjat Mousavi, Mr Esmaeil Zamani,
Volume 6, Issue 3 (9-2019)
Volume 6, Issue 3 (9-2019)
Abstract
Introduction
Dust storms as one of the environmental hazards of the arid regions of the globe, including the southern, southwestern, eastern and central parts of Iran, has caused many environmental problems that confirm the need for studying and crisis managing its in scientific and executive congresses. Therefore, the present study attempts to evaluate the effects of climate elements on temperature, precipitation, humidity, evapotranspiration and vegetation index on the frequency of dust storms in Yazd province during the period of 5 years (2009-2014).
Data and Methodology
So, after determining the synoptic stations of the area, the dust data were extracted based on the code of the present weather phenomena and the values of the climatic elements. In the next step, their spatial zonation was determined through the interpolation method. Then, using the MODIS images, EVI index data were calculated according to the principle of time matching. Finally, a variety of simple and multiple regression models were fitted to estimate the occurrence frequency of dust, and the most appropriate relationships with higher preference values were reported.
Findings and Conclusions
The results showed that there was a significant relationship between the total dust with evapotranspiration and relative humidity with a R square of 0.973 and 0.614 and the standard deviation of 24.104 and 92.477 at sig. level of 99% and 95%. Also, there is the maximum significant relation between external dust with evapotranspiration and relative humidity with a R square 0.968 and 0.621, and the standard deviation was estimated to be 0.173 and 75.427 at sig. level of 99% and 95%, respectively. Internal dusts with evapotranspiration and maximum temperature with a R square of 0.770 and 0.377 and standard deviation of 15.1751 and 64.22 have a significant relationship with sig. level of 95%. The results of the total, external and internal dust storms with climatic elements and vegetation cover showed a significant correlation with the R square of 0.994, 0.988 and 0.956 and the standard error of estimation of 18.13713, 24.2555551 and 10.49989 at sig. level of 99% and 95%, respectively, which indicates the systematic function of climatic elements and vegetation cover in the occurrence of dust.
Reza Reza Borna, Shahla Shahla Ghasemi, Farideh Farideh Asadian,
Volume 6, Issue 3 (9-2019)
Volume 6, Issue 3 (9-2019)
Abstract
Today, the impact of climate is considered on the life, health, comfort, activity and behavior in a form of the branch of science such as human biology. Due to difference of frequency people with each other, the sensibility of every one from weather can be different from the other one that's why the climate can’t be totally undesirable or the climate can be totally desirable for all the people, so we can say that all of climatic elements are affected on human comfort but the effect of some of them is quite cleared and the effect of the others is mild and sometimes invisible. The greatest effect on comfort and discomfort can be included temperature, humidity and solar radiation. The aim of this research is to investigate and determine the area risk of climatic comfort. For this purpose, the temperature, precipitation and humidity data have been extracted for Khuzestan province form Esfarazi database. In this approach, first different properties of the temperature, precipitation and humidity for the area with climatic discomfort have discussed based on the conditional probability distribution. This study has been identified the areas of climatic comfort in Khuestan province using multivariate analysis (Cluster analysis and Discriminant analysis) and spatial autocorrelation pattern (Hot Spot index and Moran index) with an emphasis on architecture. The results showed that the risk area of climate comfort is included mostly of the western parts of Khuzestan province namely the border areas with Iraq and some parts of southern of province .On the other hand ,trend analysis the range of this area to climatic discomfort indicated that it has increased significantly in recent periods .The results also showed that the local distribution of precipitation in all periods in the areas of climatic discomfort has been a high the coefficient of variations.
Mr Mohamad Khalaj,
Volume 6, Issue 3 (9-2019)
Volume 6, Issue 3 (9-2019)
Abstract
Abstract
Seismic potential investigation of Tehran as the capital of Iran is an essential issue because their accumulation around a fault may indicate its seismic potential. Stress trajectories for this estimate are useful. In this research, fault slip data is used for paleo stress analysis. Base on that, the study area divided into 6 stable stress regions and the mean stress tensor related to each region determined. Then the mean stress tensor rotated based on Anderson’s theory representing a compressional tectonic regime. The Stress trajectory map drew based on rotated mean stress tensor acting on the regions during geological time. The resulted map showed the arrangement of sigma1 trajectories in the area obeyed the overall tectonic regime in Iran and limited converge through the junction ignoring addition in stress magnitude and seismic hazard in the junction of major faults.
Given the importance of Tehran as the political-economic capital of the country, and its location in Alborz Basin with high faults density. and due to the seismic background of the area, the necessity of seismic risk assessment in this area becomes more evident. In this research, we have attempted to produce and present a map of faults in the Tehran wide area, focusing on faults in the eastern part of Tehran, Mamlouk, Ghasre Firozeh and the margins, with accurate structural elements and drawing of the stress trajectories, convergence of the trajectories, and stress accumulation at convergence sites, assess seismic hazard at this location based on longitudinal stress data (Katsushi Sato, 2011; Yamada and Yamaji, 2002; Yamaji, 2000; Sippel et al., 2009).
Based on field observations and data collected, scratch faults were selected for collecting and analysis of longitudinal paleo stresses as they record all deformation stages. After collecting the fault data, we stabilized them using the Multiple Inverse Method (MIM) and zone boundaries, and by drawing a Mohr's circle (without scale) for each range, seismic potential analysis was performed (Katsushi Sato, 2011; Yamada and Yamaji, 2002; Yamaji, 2000; Sippel et al., 2009).
To separate the stress phases, obtain the reduced stress tensor, obtain different stress and stress parameters, and plot the stress trajectories, the study area had to be divided into smaller ranges. It is not possible to determine the size of the stress components and the principal stresses by longitudinal stress methods and it is not possible to draw a scaled circle. Therefore, it is possible to draw a circle without scales for fault data only. This circle enables the overall analysis of the field shape, the arrangement of the data in the graph, and the comparison of the relative components of the fault data stress. By the Mohr's circle (without scale) method, the principal minimum stress and the maximum stress difference (s1 - s3) are considered as base (0) and unit (1), respectively, and assume the same size with respect to the relation (F = (s2 - s3) / (s1 - s3)) between the calculation of the middle stress field shape and the field shape factor. Studies show that tensile tectonic structures are not dominant structures in the region. For the kinetic analysis of fault data, precise rock mechanics such as the internal friction angle and the Amonton-Columbus criterion cannot be used precisely. But given the arrangement of the fault data, a large degree of comparison can be made between the kinetic features and especially the fault dynamics of each range. Therefore, the main maximum stress must be horizontal. Assuming that all the faults are coherent and based on Anderson's theory of faulting that the main minimum stress is vertical in the compressive stress regime, the position of the principal stress axes of each range is returned to the conditions of the fault formation (vertical minimum stress). In all ranges, the principal minimum stress is near vertical. After rotation of the data and the vertical axis of the minimum stress was set, the trajectory maps were drawn for horizontal stresses (main and maximum stresses).
A study based on longitudinal stress studies and Andersen's theory introduces the main maximum stress trend N017E, which is in good agreement with the general crustal shortening trend of the Central Alborz (Vernant et al., 2004). Therefore, the major faults of the region do not have a significant impact on the disturbance of the stress field within the region and, in fact, the convergence of these faults does not lead to the convergence of stress trajectories. The positioning of the poles of the fault plates on the main stress plates indicates that along with the crustal deformation in this part of Alborz, the regional structures have been rotated and decomposed. In fact, the reason for the polarization of fault plates on the main stress sheets with zero shear stress is that the rotation and positioning of faults coincide with the rotation and deformation of other geological structures and phenomena such as folds and joints. The arrangement of the poles of the fault plates in the Mohr's circle indicates that the faults in zone 3 have less dynamic potential than elsewhere.
Keywords: Stress Trajectory, Multiple Inverse Method, Convergent Faults, Seismic Hazard, Mamlouk, Ghasre Firouzeh.
Hassan Zohrevandi, Ali Mohamad Khorshid Dost, Behroz Sari Saraf,
Volume 7, Issue 1 (5-2020)
Volume 7, Issue 1 (5-2020)
Abstract
Prediction of Climate Change in Western of Iran using Downscaling of HadCM3 Model under Different Scenarios
Hassan Zohrehvandi 1, Ali Mohammad Khorshiddoust 2, Behrouz Sari Sarraf 3
1- Ph.D student of Climatology, University of Tabriz, Email: H.zohrehvandi@gmail.com
Mobile number:+989181502513
2 - Associate Professor of Climatology, University of Tabriz, Email:
Mobile number:
3- Associate Professor of Climatology, University of Tabriz, Email:
Mobile number:
Abstract
Considering that water resources are at risk from climate change, the study of temperature and precipitation changes in the coming years can lead to droughts such as droughts, sudden floods, high evaporation and environmental degradation. To this end, global climate models (GCMs) are designed to assess climate change. The outputs of these models have low spatial accuracy. In order to increase the spatial accuracy of this data, downscaling methods are used which are divided into statistical and dynamic methods. One of the reasons for using these models is their quick and easy operation compared to other methods. Our study area consists of Kurdistan, Kermanshah and Hamedan provinces in the west of the country. In this study, observational data of minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation and radiation of 6 synoptic stations in the studied area in the statistical period of 1961 until 2005. In this study, the LARS-WG model was used for downscaling of HadCM3 global model data. The LARS-WG model is one of the most popular weather generator models that which to generation for maximum and minimum temperature, rainfall and radiation are used daily under current and future climate conditions. This model as a downscaled version of the same process less complex and simulated data input and output, high ability to predict climate change. The HadCM3 model is also a type of atmospheric- oceanic circulation model developed at the Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research, which has a 2.5 degree latitude network at 3.75 degrees longitude. Also, three climate change scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 have been used, each of which reflects the characteristics of the world's economic growth, the world's population and social awareness. The methodology is that the model receives the monitored data of the basic course; by examining them the statistical characteristics of the data are extracted. Then, in order to validate and ensure the model's capability for the basic statistical period, the model is implemented to re-establish a series of artificial data in the base period. Then the outputs to evaluate the performance of the model in the reconstruction of the data, the statistical characteristics of observations to test and compare various criteria. MAE, MSE, RMSE and R2 criteria were used to evaluate and analyze the performance of the downscaling model. The results showed that the accuracy of the model varies in different stations and parameters, so that the model in simulation of temperature and radiation is more suitable than rainfall simulation. Also, the model has more successful in simulation of maximum temperature in comparison with minimum temperature. In sum, the results of different evaluation criteria indicate that the LARS-WG model has a good accuracy for the downscaling of the parameters studied in the study area. After evaluating the LARS-WG model and ensuring its appropriateness, the data was generated by the model for three climate change scenarios using the HadCM3 model. The results of the monthly review of the parameters studied at the station indicate that precipitation in the 2050s at all stations except Saralpul Zahab and Sanandaj stations according to the three scenarios studied in most months except December, January And at some stations, sometimes in November and February, they were lower than the base period, and rainfall is expected to decrease over the 20 years period (2046-2065), but the situation for Sanandaj and Saralpul Zahab stations is somewhat different, which, according to some scenarios, has increased in most months of the year, and according to some scenarios, rainfall has decreased in some months and it seems that the precipitation pattern is shifted The end of the warm season. But the rainfall situation is completely different in the 2080s, and rainfall has decreased in all stations and in most months of the year. The average monthly of the minimum and maximum temperatures as well as the amount of radiation shows that all three parameters will increase in all months of the year based on all three scenarios, as well as in the two decades studied (2080 and 2050) And its rate would increase in the decade than in the previous decade. According to the results, the amount of precipitation decreases in study area and the temperature and radiation will increase as well. The rate of precipitation decrease in the following periods will be 7.7% in the region than in the base period, and the minimum and maximum temperatures in the long-term was increase at the region 3.4 and 3.4 degrees Celsius, respectively, compared to the average period of the base. The radiation increase was 0.38 mJ /m2 in Area level. The results of this research can help to solve the challenges of water resource managers and planners in future periods.
Keywords: Climate Change, downscaling, west of Iran, General Circulation model, LARS-WG
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