Journal of Spatial Analysis

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Spatial Analysis of Villagers’ Resilience Against Environmental Hazards
(A Case Study of Central District of Faruj County)
Statement of the problem
The concept of resilience is the outcome of changes in risk managing in current decade. Today, the views and theories of disaster management and sustainable development seek to create societies resilient against natural disasters. Natural disasters such as earthquakes, droughts, floods, etc. are inevitable phenomenon which always pose a serious threat to development, especially in rural areas. This reflects the need to pay more attention to resilience in local level (rural areas). Resilience is the ability of a social or ecological system to absorb and deal with disorder or disturbance, so that the basic functional structure, can maintain the capacity of reorganization and adapting to changes and tensions. Carpenter defines resilience as the capacity of an environmental and social system to absorb a disruption, reorganize and thereby maintain essential functions. Thus, in order to reduce damage caused by natural disasters, the capacity of rural areas to deal with these events should be increased. Increased level of resilience against natural hazards is possible through accurately identifying the factors affecting resilience. Therefore, the aim of this study is the spatial analysis of factors affecting the promotion of rural environmental resilience in the face of natural hazards in rural areas of Faruj County.
In fact, the present study seeks to answer the following questions: what are the factors which may increase the level of resilience in the sample communities exposed to natural hazards, and how resilient are the sample villages of the study?
Research Methodology
This study is an applied research conducted in a descriptive-analytical method based on questionnaires. Data were collected through library research and field works which required completing questionnaires and conducting interviews with villagers living in the Central District of Faruj County.
Validity of the questionnaires was confirmed based on experts' views and its reliability was calculated using Cronbach alpha for different dimensions. The population consisted of 4591 households from the villages suitable for temporary accommodation. Based on the Cochran formula, 252 were obtained from these samples. They were selected by stratified random sampling.
Using statistical analysis methods in SPSS software, we analyzed the data to measure resilience in sample villages of the study area. We also used Excel and GIS in various parts of the study. To determine the best option, we used the VIKOR models, Gray relational analysis and Additive Ratio Assessment (ARAS).
Results and discussion
The results showed that infrastructure dimension with a mean of 2.92 and the economic dimension with a mean of 2.58 respectively had the highest and least impact on increased resilience which suggest that these villages compared to sample villages have relatively good infrastructure facilities. However, due
to the lack of proper institutional framework and poor performance of crisis management institutions, villagers are less satisfied with these organizations. Accordingly, based on t-test, the actual mean of the total respondents’ views was less than 3 and at the moderate level, and the economic index with the t statistics of -10.38 had the most negative impact on the resilience of the villagers.
It should be noted that according to the results of the resilience correlation with the individual characteristics of the respondents, it became clear that the gender and marital status has a direct and weak relationship with each dimension of resilience, which means men and the married people compared to the women and the singles believe their villages are more resilient. Besides, there is a weak and reverse relationship between the education of the individuals and their resilience, meaning that people with lower education compared to educated people, believe their villages are more resilient. There was no relationship between age and the dimensions of resilience.
In order to assess the impact of each index of the study on the level of resilience in the villages of the study, the confirmatory factor analysis test was used which revealed that among the indices of the study, "the villagers’ satisfaction with the performance of the Rural Council and administers (Dehyars)", "the role of institutions in educating people about various incidents" and "the use of new and durable materials to prevent the damaging effects of the incidents" had the greatest effect on the resilience of the samples villages.
Eventually, to determine the best village in terms of resilience for establishing a temporary settlement site in crisis management, we use three techniques: additive ratio assessment (ARSA),- VIKOR and Gray relational analysis. We prioritized the villages based on the mean rank method. -Considering the indices of resilience in the rural areas of the study, the villages of Mefrangah, Ostad and Pirali have the highest ranks, and the villages of Rizeh and Roshavanlou have the lowest ranks.
Key words: resilience, environmental hazards, organizational-institutional dimension, additive ratio assessment (ARSA), Faruj Central District

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Analysis and Measurement of Environmental Resilience of Villages in Gorganrud Watershed against Flood (Golestan province, Iran)
 
Abstract
Environmental hazards are inevitable phenomena that always place serious risks on the development of human societies, especially rural development. In the recent years, however, significant changes have been made in crisis management approaches, and the prevailing view has shifted from the "reduction of vulnerability" approach to "resilience improvement". Resilience is a new concept often used in the face of unknowns and uncertainties. Therefore, along with this change of attitude, it is important to examine and analyze natural hazards in terms of resilience. According to global statistics, floods, as one of the most devastating natural disasters, have caused the greatest losses and casualties to human settlements, which is true both in our country and in Golestan province. Investigations show that only in the statistical period of 1991-2014, 106 rainfall cases have led to the occurrence of floods in this province. These floods have damaged natural resources, the environment and the prevalence of environmental pollution; In addition, other natural and human factors have contributed to the heightened risk of flood damage. But if it was planned for the restoration of villages, then the damage could be reduced. Therefore, this research was conducted with the general purpose of determining the relationships between environmental factors and factors of rural communities of Gorganrud watershed on their resilience and numerical values. Finally, the residual spatial analysis of rural limited settlements was studied. Accordingly, the research questions are as follows: a) What is the relationship between environmental factors and factors in the villages of Gorganrud watershed in Golestan province with the resilience of the communities living in them in the face of flood? b) What are the resiliency values ​​of these communities in the environmental dimension and which zones? This is an applied research with descriptive-analytical method. A library of researcher-made questionnaires was used for collecting data using library resources. The statistical population consisted of 106 villages with 22,942 households. First, 31 villages were selected by cluster sampling. Then, using Cochran formula, 318 families were selected as sample size and selected by simple random sampling method. Also, for assessing the validity of the questionnaire, using Delphi collective wisdom methods, it was determined by using historical studies and opinions of experts in rural areas. The reliability of the questionnaires was also determined by using the Cronbach's alpha coefficient in the pre-test method. The value for the household questionnaire was r_a1=0.841 and r_a2=0.862, respectively. All steps for statistical analyzes have been performed by Excel and SPSS software. Additionally, the development of mapping, risk-taking, risk and resilience was also done with the help of ArcGIS software and the weight of each criterion was determined by the Super Decision tool; Then, using the weighted and linear overlapping methods, each of the sub-criteria of the main indexes was multiplied in its weights. The study area is divided into two distinct sections in terms of geological and geomorphological structure. The southern and eastern parts of it are the ripples of the eastern Alborz mountains, which are taller in the southern part and extend along the east-west direction. Also, the northern part of the studied basin is the Gorgan plain, in which the main branch of Gorganrud flows from east to west and all branches of the south and east are drained. Following the general slope of the main branch and its long-standing walls in the mid-east, it is usually not flooded; but as far as the west is concerned, its slope is very low and one of the flood plains is considered as the basin. The results of the research show that there is a significant relationship between the environmental factors of the studied basin villages and the resilience of the communities inhabited by them in the face of floods. Also, the average environmental resilience of the whole region was lower than the average (2.76 average), rural households in the sub-basins of TilAbad and ChehelChai with an average of 3.24 and 3 had relatively good environmental resilience, But most of the rural households in the sub-basins of Ghurechai and Lower of Gorganrud, Mohammad Abad-Zaringol, Madarsoo and Sarisoo, with an average of 2.89 to 1.85, had a poor environmental resilience. In addition, According to the flood risk resilience map, it can be said that of the total 31 sample villages studied, about 29 percent of sample villages have "medium upward" resilience in facing flood risks; conversely, most of these villages (71%) also have relatively low degree of resilience. Also, comparing the findings of this study with the results of most other researches, such as the studies of Olshansky and Kartes (1998) regarding the necessity of considering the environmental factors of settlements, observing the necessary environmental standards and the necessity of using proper land use management tools to reduce risk hazards and improve resilience, Center of Emergency Management Australia (2001) on the need to consider the state of the infrastructure, including the level of communications and accesses, biological conditions, including the status of pollution, as well as geographical characteristics, such as distances and proximity, climate, topography, as well as the general results of studies by Rafiean et al. (2012) in special selection of the most suitable model of resilience based on the combination of carter and socioeconomic model due to the simultaneous attention of this model to its geographical features and its comprehensiveness, as well as attention to the local communities' participation, Rezaei (2010), Shokri Firoozjah (2017) and Anabestani et al. (2017) Regarding the low value of the calculated population, the resiliency number of the society is consistent and consistent with the lack of attention to infrastructure issues, locations, etc., which is below the baseline (3). As a result, all of the aforementioned components of the resilience of inhabitants of sample societies have been affected by its environmental dimension, which is often due to insufficient attention and insufficient handling of them, which reduces resilience of rural residents to flood risks.
 
Keywords: Environmental hazards, Flood, Vulnerability, Resilience, Spatial analysis, Golestan Gorganrud basin.
 

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Spatial analysis physical resiliency City Earthquake Model Condorcet
Case study: ten districts of the region one of Tehran
 
Abstract
Earthquake as one of the most devastating and destructive natural hazards; especially in developing countries, it has been a long time ago With the collapse of buildings and urban infrastructure, Imports a lot of damage to property and assets in urban areas and around them. In response to this, international organizations' strategies to mitigate disasters have made their societies resilient to natural disasters. And considers it within the framework of the Higgo for the years 2005-2015. In fact, the goal of this approach is to reduce the vulnerability of cities and to strengthen citizens' abilities to deal with the dangers of threats such as natural disasters. Considering that the area of ​​a Tehran city due to its proximity to faults such as Mashaa fault, North Tehran fault Also, the effects of faults in and around the region such as Niavaran fault, Mahmoodieh fault and Darabad fault (Banamieh) are located in a region with a high seismic hazard. Assessment of resilience of the region to earthquake risk and resilience of the region In order to reduce the risks of earthquakes in this area is very important. Accordingly, the present study was conducted with the aim of assessing the resilience situation of the 10th district of Tehran municipality district against earthquake.
The method of this research is descriptive-analytical with a purposeful purpose. The research area of ​​the 10th Region is a municipality of Tehran. The raw data used by the Tehran Municipality Information Technology Organization has been obtained. To determine the relative importance of each component used in research According to experts from the Urban Planning Area, the Network Analysis Process (ANP) has been used in the form of Super Decisions software. Then, to rank 10 areas of a Tehran municipality district against earthquake, Multi-criteria decision making models (MCDMs) including TOPSIS, VIKOR, HAW and SAW models have been used. Considering that different methods have been used to rank the areas Different results have been achieved, to overcome the contradictions between the various ratings of the regions in each of the models,
and a single result has been used to rank the areas of the congregation's integrated model.
Finally, in order to speak, the results of the model used in the ArcGIS environment were mapped.
In this research, for the spatial analysis of the resilience of the 10 district areas of a Tehran municipality from the results four models (TOPSIS, VIKOR, HAW and SAW) were used. Based on the results of the TOPSIS technique, areas 8, 3 and 2 of resilience are large, areas 7 and 4 of the moderate resilience, Areas 5, 1, 6 and 10 have low resilience and area 9 has very little resilience against the earthquake. Based on the results of the VIKOR model, areas 3 and 4 of the resilience, regions 2, 7, 5, 9, 8, 6 and 10 of the moderate resilience Medium and area one have low resilience against earthquake. Based on the results of the HAW model, area 3 of the high resilience, regions 2, 7, 8 and 4 of the moderate resilience and areas 10, 1, 6 and 9 are of low resilience. In this model, no area has been found to be very resilient. Based on the results of the SAW model, regions 3, 2, 8, and 7 are in the range of many resiliences, regions 5 and 4 in the moderate resilience range, Area 9 is in the low resilience range and areas 10, 6 and 1 are in the low resilience range against earthquakes.

In this study, we evaluated the resilience situation in the districts of Tehran municipality district in an earthquake Multi-criteria decision-making methods including TOPSIS, VIKOR, HAW and SAW were used, Then a CONDORCET integrated model was used to achieve a single result of these analyzes. The results of the Canadian model, which is the result of a combination of the final results of the models (Tapis, VIKOR, HAW and SAW), show that Areas 2, 4, 5, and 3 are of high resilience, areas 7, 8 and 1 of the moderate resilience, 10 and 6 of the resilience, and area 9 of the resilience is very low against earthquakes. Which should be prioritized in future plans. Although it is possible to assess the vulnerability of urban areas by using different models and mapping them in the region's resilience to the earthquake crisis, a significant part of post-crisis casualties fell but this will not be achieved until the authorities are seriously determined.
 
Keywords: Resilience, Earthquake, Multi-criteria Decision Making Methods, Tehran Municipality Area
 
 

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Evaluation and Evaluation of Resilience to Drought Hazards in Rural Areas Case Study: rural district Ghare Taghgan Neka
 
Extensive abstract
Concerns over the social, economic, and ecological impacts of climate change on human habitat have increased over the last few decades (McGranahan et al, 2007). According to the UN report, water shortages will occur in the near future in 18 countries, and by 2025 more than two-thirds of the world's population is projected to be in serious water shortages (Pozzi et al, 2013, 191 112; World Bank, 2008, 124). On the other hand, the number of disasters has increased over the past 20 years, reaching 400 from 200 accidents (Pittman et al, 2011, 83,94; Molen et al, 2011, 765-773). In this regard, droughts, the most dangerous natural disasters, affect a wide range of climates and ecosystems, and the geographical areas affected by them have increased rapidly in the last four decades (Kamara et al., 2018, 2318). Drought is a major threat to households and community’s dependent on agriculture for livelihoods (Anthopoulou et al, 2017). Because livelihoods in agricultural-dependent societies are more dependent on climate change (Pittman et al., 2017. (
It is central to the city of Neka; it requires a holistic perspective. The type of applied research and methodology used is descriptive-analytical. Librarian and field method (observation, questionnaire) were used to collect the required data. In order to assess the resilience of rural areas to drought in two economic dimensions (ability to return to employment and income generation and compensation of costs and losses) and in social dimension (awareness, knowledge, skills and preparedness and participation and Collaboration) Designed and developed a Likert-type questionnaire (¬1 very low, 5 = very high). The statistical population of this study is based on census of 6947 households in 24 villages with error of 0.07, ¬191 questionnaire as sample size and based on the relationship of sharing ratio of the number of samples in each village is specified and in villages less than 7 samples, the number has been upgraded to 7. Finally, 233 samples were used as the sample size based on questionnaire completion and analysis and were randomly distributed and distributed among households. To assess the validity of the questionnaire, the experts were first provided with validity and the validity of the research instrument was measured and the final indices and statements were extracted. The questionnaire developed at this stage was pre-tested in the study area and after confirmation of trust or reliability (Cronbach's alpha value of 0.84) the questionnaire was finalized for field research. Descriptive (inferential) and inferential statistical methods (single sample t, Friedman, cluster analysis) and VASP, ARAS and VIKOR models were used to analyze the data. Therefore, in order to evaluate and measure resilience in rural areas, firstly, annual moisture status was investigated based on SPI, SDI and GRI indices. Therefore, the moisture status of the study area during the 13-year statistical period (2006-2007) using the data of 9 Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) rain gauge data, the data of the discharge rate of 6 rivers Surface Flow Index (SDI) and the values Water level level of 9 piezometric wells of GRI index was calculated in DrinC software environment.
 Iran's position on the dry belt and the persistence of droughts over the past two decades have led to the emergence of drought-related crises, especially for villagers who are heavily dependent on water for production, due to climate change. Droughts in the study area were also not exempt from this rule and resulted in adverse effects beyond the normal state and the risk of drought among rural farmers, which could be due to their low level of resilience to this risk. Be it. Therefore, the present study aimed to investigate the economic and social effects of this phenomenon on the status of rural resilience against drought hazards. The results showed that among the sample villages, in the economic dimension, the highest average belonged to Tavaza Abad village of Bostan Khel with average of 3.11 and the lowest average belonged to Plazhartesh village with average of 1.63. In the social aspect, the highest average belongs to the village of Dukhaelo with a mean of 3.54 and the lowest average belongs to the village of Plazhartesh with an average of 1.55. Also, the average real perception of the respondents is less than three and is moderately low, indicating that rural resilience to drought is low.
 
Keywords: Rural Areas, Resilience, Drought, Gharaghgan Village

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Explanation of the subject: The annual drought phenomenon, by affecting economic, social and environmental issues, leads to the vulnerability of urban and rural households and the instability of their livelihoods. Yazd is one of the provinces with drought. Consecutive droughts in the province necessitate integrated management and community adaptation in times of drought.
Method: Taking into account the length of the statistical period of 20 years and to obtain the results with a high level of confidence, the main data of the census documents that have been compiled for the development of cities and villages have been used. By analyzing the main components of several factors, it was selected as the main components. By calculating the standard precipitation index in the arid region, the driest year was determined and by calculating the weighted average of their correlation index with the main components of socio-economic and ecological environment based on appropriate statistical inference. At the end of the year, the effect of drought on different dimensions was presented by step-by-step linear regression, analysis and communication between them to adapt and resilience of individuals in society.
 According to the general results, one of the most important economic and dry economic losses is the annual income of the villagers, which can be due to the decrease in the area under cultivation and production of the main agricultural products. In the social sector, people with knowledge and awareness should increase their adaptive capacity to the occurrence of drought, in order to reduce the vulnerability of social issues to the phenomenon of drought. The results show that unemployment insurance has increased following the drought. The main reason for this is the unemployment of farmers affected by drought, so changing jobs along with temporary migration or the production of handicrafts, etc. can increase the relative income of households at the time of occurrence and prevent unemployment in these conditions. Increasing unemployment will cause other social harms such as poverty, declining health, increasing disease, and reducing judicial and social security. According to the results, one of the components that has established a high standard of rainfall during the drought year is the theft of livestock, which shows a decrease in the social security of the community. People in the study community increase their adaptability to the annual drought by increasing breeding work, such as rangeland improvement, rainfall collection, biological improvement, afforestation, and irrigation reform.

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Spatial analysis of natural resilience in border areas
Case study: Zahak county
problem statement
Occurrence of natural disasters such as drought, floods and earthquakes in geographical areas, especially in rural areas, often have devastating effects. Hence, resilience has become doubly important, especially in special areas that are of special importance and sensitivity. On the other hand, border areas have a special place in policy-making and planning is important in this areas. One of these areas is Zahak county in Sistan and Balochestan province, which due to the instability and reduction of the inflow of river water resources, as well as climatic conditions and drought in combination with other factors, the traditional employment opportunities of the often rural population face serious challenges and therefore the county5b is deprived. Increasingly, the sustainability of livelihoods is facing problems. The question is, how do the spatial zones and the villages located in these zones react to the change of internal and external natural factors? Which areas and villages are more resilient?
 
Method of research
This article deals with the spatial analysis of environmental resilience in Zahak county and its purpose is to investigate the differences in resilience in different areas of the county. The general approach to the study is integrated and descriptive-analytical in terms of method. Data were collected using documentary and field methods with observation tools and questionnaires and findings of a specialized panel. The statistical population of this research is the villages of more than 20 households in Zahak city that have had governor of a rural district or village council.
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Description and interpretation of results
The villages of Zahak county are threatened by the threat of these resources due to their dependence on natural resources. The results show that none of the defined geographical areas in the rural area is sustainable and three rural areas are semi-sustainable and one rural is unstable. Assessment of sustainability in micro zones also shows that naturally unstable villages are often sparsely populated, which means that activity has not developed either. After qualitative and quantitative evaluation of various natural and environmental indicators in the county and their impact on the resilience of places and settlements in the county, settlements and places in terms of resilience were classified into three levels of high, medium and low resilience. In total, 46.7% of settlements and places are at high level of resilience, 37% at medium level and 16.3% at low level of resilience. After matching the settlements and places with the geographical area of ​​the village, three of the four geographical areas are in transition and one is unstable. This study shows that the resilience of individual villages cannot perform well when it is located in areas surrounded by villages with low resilience and the whole area becomes unstable. Thus, in special areas such as Zahak county, crisis management should focus on providing natural resources and preventing vulnerability to natural crises, and it is expected that with natural stability, housing and activity will be sustainable.
 
Key word
Resilience, special areas, Zahak county, border areas, geographic zoning
 

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Investigation of Temperature and Precipitation Changes in the Seymarreh Basin by Using CMIP5 Series Climate Models
 
Abstract
Panel reports on climate change suggest that climate change around the world is most likely due to human factors. Temperature and precipitation are two important parameters in the climate of a region whose variations and fluctuations affect different areas such as agriculture, energy, tourism and so on. Seymareh basin is one of the most significant sub-basins of Karkheh. The purpose of this study is to predict the impact of climate change on precipitation and temperature of the Seymareh Basin in 2021-2040 period. These effects were analyzed at selected stations with uncertainties related to atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) of CMIP5 models under two scenarios of RCP45 and RCP85 through LARS-WG statistical model. Then the uncertainties of the models and scenarios were investigated by comparing the monthly outputs of the models by the coefficients of determination coefficient (R²) in the forthcoming period (2021-2040) with the base period (1980–2010). The root mean square error (RMSE) calculations presented the best model and scenarios for generating future temperature and precipitation data.            
The Seymareh catchment is the largest and the main Karkheh sub-basin that covers parts of Kermanshah, Lorestan and Ilam provinces. The length of the largest river at the basin level to the site of the Seymareh Reservoir Dam is approximately 475 km, and the area of the basin is 26,700 km². Geographic coordinates of the basin are from 33° 16 ́ 03 ̋to 34°59 ́ 29 ̋north latitudes and 46°6 ́9 ̋to ̋ 5 ́ 0 ° 49 Eastern longitudes, minimum basin height 698 m at the dam outlet and its maximum height 3,638 m. It is on the western highlands of Borujerd.
The information used in this study was obtained from the Meteorological Organization of the country. For this study, three synoptic stations of Kermanshah, Hamadan and Khorramabad, which had the highest statistical records and had appropriate distribution at basin level, were used. These data included daily and monthly temperature and precipitation information, and sunshine hours.
The LARS-WG fine-scale exponential model was proposed by Rasko et al., Semnoff and Barrow (1981). We used daily data at stations under current and future weather conditions. In order to select the best GCM model from the models mentioned above, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation and sunshine data were entered daily in the base period (1980–2010) and data were generated for five models under two scenarios of RCP45 and RCP85 for the period 2040–2021. The data were generated in 100 random series and the mean of required variables (minimum temperature, maximum temperature and rainfall) were extracted monthly in the period 2021-2040. Then, root mean square error (RMSE) and determination coefficient (R²) were used to evaluate the performance of the models and compare the results.
To ensure the models' ability to generate data in the coming period, computational data from the model and observational data at the stations under study should have been compared. The capability of the LARS-WG model in modeling the minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and radiation at the stations under study was completely consistent with the observed data. The model's ability to exemplify rainfall was also acceptable, however the highest modeling error was related to March rainfall.
By comparing the observed and produced data including monthly average precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures through five mentioned models with their indices, the best model and scenario for future fabrication were determined. The results of this comparison showed that among the available models, HADGEM2-ES model under RCP 4.5 scenario had the best result for precipitation and HADGEM2-ES under RCP 8.5 scenario predicted the best result for maximum temperature. Determining the best model, precipitation data, minimum temperature and maximum temperature produced in the selected models and scenarios were analyzed to investigate the climate change temperature and precipitation for the future period.
The results of this study indicated that due to the wide range of output variations of different models and scenarios, by not taking into account the uncertainties of the models and scenarios can have a great impact on the results of the studies. It was also found in this study that the LARS-WG exponential model was capable of modeling precipitation data and baseline temperature in the study area, so that the radiation data, minimum and maximum temperatures were completely consistent with the data.
The observations are consistent and the models' ability to predict rainfall is very good and acceptable manner. In investigating the uncertainties caused by atmospheric general circulation models and existing scenarios, the best model to predict precipitation in the study area is HADGEM2-ES model under RCP 8.5 scenario, the best model for temperature estimation model HADGEM2-ES under RCP scenario No. 4.5.
The overall results of this study revealed that the average precipitation in the basin will decrease by 4.5% on average, while the minimum temperature will be 1.5° C and the maximum temperature will be 2.17° C. The highest increase will be due to the warmer months of the year. Notable are the disruptions of rainfall distribution and the high temperatures will have significantly negative consequences than rainfall reduction.
 

• : Climate Change, Climate Scenarios, Uncertainty, LARS-WG, Seymareh.

 
 

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introduction: Resilience is the key to urban sustainability, and by reducing vulnerability, it creates a sustainable environment for cities and plays a fundamental role in reducing urban vulnerability to environmental hazards.
Methods: The present research method is descriptive-analytical and applied in terms of purpose. The aim is to measure the resilience level of District 2 of Karaj and identify its strengths and weaknesses in facing environmental hazards. The research combines data from statistical documents, written reports, and questionnaire data obtained from surveys. The statistical sample consists of 30 experts related to crisis management in District 2 of Karaj, selected through the snowball sampling method. Data analysis was performed using mean statistics, standard deviation, and factor analysis.
Results: The results indicate that enhancing the resilience of this area through improving the quality of physical infrastructure, better construction management, adherence to architectural standards, and urban planning principles can reduce vulnerability and create a sustainable and resilient environment. Additionally, the evaluation of building sustainability shows that the average index in District 2 was 4.45. The average indices for spatial organization were 4.43, geographical characteristics were 4.57, and infrastructure sustainability was 4.8. This indicates a favorable status of resilience and sustainability indices in District 2 of Karaj.
Conclusions: Factor loadings show that the coefficients are above 0.6, confirming the validity of the resilience indices. Therefore, the urban resilience and sustainability of the region can be evaluated as favorable to highly favorable.
 

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Objective: A major part of rural risk, such as production risks, economic risks, and severe climate changes, is related to agricultural risks, which have significant negative impacts on the agricultural sector. This study aimed to investigate the effects of risks and hazards of the rural ecosystem on the development of various types of rural tourism in the rural tourism area of ​​Mahmoudabad County, located in Mazandaran Province, in order to examine the development of various types of rural tourism as a strategy for resilience and adaptation of villagers, as well as a preventive strategy in villages against economic, environmental, and social shocks, as well as reducing vulnerability and diversifying the rural economy.
Methods: The research method is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive (non-experimental) and correlational (variance matrix analysis) in terms of data collection method with the aim of showing the relationship between variables. The study population included all 88 villages in Mahmudabad city. The data collection tool was a researcher-made questionnaire and the respondents were the villagers. The structural equation modeling (SEM) method based on Smart-PLS was used to analyze the data.
Results:
The results of the research on prioritizing dimensions and hazard and risk items for rural ecosystem assessment show that economic, environmental, and social risks were ranked in priorities one to three, respectively. Based on the path coefficient (pc), only the direct effect of environmental pressure (with a path coefficient of 0.338 and a T-value of 2.467) was significant. About 30 percent of the changes in the development of tourism types are explained by the proposed model with the direct effect of environmental hazards and the indirect effect of economic hazards and social hazards.

Conclusions: As a general conclusion, the types of rural tourism in the region should be given serious attention as opportunity driven entrepreneurship and necessity driven entrepreneurship. In this regard, recognizing ecological values ​​through education and long-term propaganda for the sustainable development of rural livelihoods with emphasis on the development of green tourism, ecotourism, and agrotourism is recommended

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The phenomenon of land-use change in the peripheral areas of Tehran Metropolis, particularly within the Lavasanat region, has transformed over the past two decades from a merely physical and economic process into a strategic issue in spatial governance, territorial resilience, and passive defense. This study aims to elucidate the institutional, spatial, and ecological mechanisms influencing land-use change and its consequences for the region’s spatial resilience, adopting an integrated approach and employing both qualitative and quantitative methods. Data were collected from three main sources: content analysis of legal and policy documents related to land management, semi-structured interviews with experts and local officials, and spatial analysis of land cover data using a land-use change prediction model. Findings indicate that land-use change in Lavasanat results from the simultaneous interaction of three levels of action: the degradation of ecological structures—which has reduced the land’s natural capacity to absorb and mitigate environmental hazards—, institutional weaknesses that have undermined land monitoring and control, and spatial concentration that has heightened exposure to risks. Concurrent with the sharp decline of agricultural lands and the loss of natural buffer zones, these transformations have weakened environmental functions, intensified physical vulnerability, and reduced the efficiency of passive defense.
Analytical results suggest that Lavasanat is undergoing a transition from a stable spatial system to a fragile and defenseless one. The process of land-use change in this region is not merely the outcome of demographic or economic pressures but rather a reflection of the disruption in spatial governance and institutional deficiencies in land management. Consequently, what appears outwardly as "development" has, in practice, led to a gradual process of "territorial defenselessness" and the erosion of both ecological and institutional resilience.
 

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Pandemic Covid-19 (Corona); Tehran's resilience against it

Nader Shohani; Assistant Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Payame Noor University. Tehran Iran
Lotfali College Potter; Associate Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
Sajjad Darabi; PhD Student, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
Saeed Yousefi Babadi; PhD student, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran

Abstract
One of the dangers that has caused cities to face a serious crisis is the outbreak of Covid-19 disease. The corona pandemic has taken cities out of their normal routine. Therefore, cities seek to return to their past conditions and urban resilience as soon as possible. Research Method In this descriptive-analytical study, using field survey, four economic, social, managerial-institutional and infrastructural dimensions in the form of 29 items have examined the resilience of Tehran against Corona pandemic. In research, support and advocacy for affected businesses, insurance coverage, support for affected manufacturing sectors, are in the most unfavorable situation. The results obtained from the final table of Vikor technique show that the economic index with a score of 1 is the most important component of resilience against coronavirus, which is lower than other components of resilience. After that, the managerial-institutional component with a score of 0.94 and the infrastructure component with a score of 0.92 in the next ranks are the most important components of Tehran's resilience against coronavirus. The results show that the metropolis of Tehran is not in a favorable position in relation to the corona virus and is not resilient to selected indicators and the economic index has the most impact and the social index has the least impact on the resilience of Tehran.

Keywords: Urban Resilience, Covid 19, Pandemic, Tehran



Pandemic Covid-19 (Corona);
Tehran's resilience against it

 

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 Determining Strategies for Improving Environmental Resilience in Gharehshiran Watershed in Ardabil using SOAR Analysis Technique
Ebrahim Asgari - PhD Student of Watershed Science & Engineering, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran. Email: ebrahim.asgari90@yahoo.com
Mahboobeh Noori - PhD Student of Geography & Urban Planning, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran. Email: mnori@stu.yazd.ac.ir
MohammadReza Rezaei - Associate Professor of Geography and Urban Planning, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran. Email: mrezaei@yazd.ac.ir
Raoof Mostafazadeh - Associate Professor Department of Natural Resources, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran. Email: raoofmostafazadeh@uma.ac.ir (Corresponding author)

Extended Abstract
Introduction: New approaches of crisis management have changed from the concepts of vulnerability to resilience and emphasize on strengthening the system's ability to deal with the risks of natural disasters. Therfore, the aim of this study was identifying the watershed capabilities of Qarahshiran and crisis management planning with emphasis on environmental resilience.
Methodology: The SOAR analytical technique and expert opinions of 52 experts were used to formulate the strategy, determine the strengths, opportunities, ideals and measurable results. The results of SOAR technique and crisis management prevention and preparedness strategies were compared with the environmental resilience of the field.
Results: Based on the results, reducing direct and indirect flood damage with 51.9% and low amount of soil erosion and water loss with 42.3%, were the most important results of the SOAR model. Out of 15 components of environmental resilience, the performance of 5 components was accepted as significant (α<0.05 confidence level). The evaluation of environmental resilience using one-sample t-test showed that the environmental dimension of resilience (2.67) with a significant level (α=0.003) has a significant that indicates high vulnerability and low resilience.
Conclusion: Considering site selection of watershed management structures, creating more opportunities and using the private sector potentials, and local NGOs will be useful in crisis management. Analysis of watershed resilience components in achieving integrated watershed management, proper knowledge of watershed function, possibility of self-regulation and recovery of balance and acceptance of adaptation to natural hazards, co-design of watershed residents, preparedness and coping with crisis can be more effective over the study area.
Key words: SOAR Model, Strategic Planning, Prevention and Preparedness, Resilience, Gharehshiran Watershed

 

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Abstract
Ecological resilience is a concept that implies the reversibility of ecological structures and functions against the shocks experienced. The northern zone of Tehran, as the most important ecological support of this city, has undergone many land-use changes in recent decades. The present study has analyzed the role of land-use change in the ecological resilience of green infrastructure (as one of the pillars of ecological structure) in District 1 of Tehran Municipality. This study is an applied one in terms of purpose and is considered a descriptive-analytical one in terms of the method used. In this study Landsat satellite data (1976-2021) were used to detect the changes of interest, and landscape metrics were used to analyze the ecological resilience conditions. Based on the results of this study period, the Number of Patches (NP) has significantly increased and the Class Area (CA) has decreased during the period covered by this study. These changes indicate the fragmentation process and loss of structural cohesion of the green patches. The measurement results for the connectivity metrics (ENN and GYRATE) also showed a small connectivity between the green patches in the area. In addition, the results for CONTAG (Contagion Landscape metrics) measure indicated that, due to low connectivity, the transmission rate is low. Therefore, it can be said that the green infrastructure of the region has lost its structural cohesion in the face of land-use change, and as a result, the expected ecological functions and services have also failed. According to the results, the green infrastructure of the study area is vulnerable to land-use changes and their ecological resilience has been significantly reduced.

 

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Economic resilience to natural disasters, which is actually how economic capacities affect disasters, is one of the issues that must be considered in any society. It is noteworthy that the type of attitude towards economic resilience and how to analyze it on the one hand, plays a key role in how to recognize the current situation resilience and its causes, and on the other hand also affects policies and measures to reduce risk and how to deal with it. The purpose of this study is to rank the economic resilience of new urban Habitations in the ​​Isfahan Metropolitan against earthquake risk. Due to the studied components and the nature of the subject, the approach of this research is "descriptive-analytical". The statistical population of this study includes 6 new urban Habitations of Shahin shahr, Majlesi, Sepahan shahr, Fooladshahr, Baharestan and Shahid Keshvari. This research is applied in terms of purpose and in the research literature section, information has been collected through the library method. According to the results obtained from ASI in this study, the new urban Habitations of Baharestan, Majlesi, Fooladshahr, Shahid Keshvari, Sepahan Shahr and Shahin Shahr have the first to sixth ranks in terms of economic resilience to earthquake risk, respectively. In order to reduce the adverse effects of earthquake risk, pay attention to the economic capacity of the studied Habitations and reduce the economic risk factors in each community, economic resilience should be considered to avoid financial losses caused by these possible accidents.
 

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Drought is one of the most important challenges faced by pastoralists around the world. This phenomenon can have significant negative effects on livestock health, production, and livelihoods. However, pastoralists can adapt to drought and reduce its negative effects by adopting various strategies. Semi-nomadic people in Darbandi, Kalat-Naderi County, have been facing drought since 2007 due to their livestock farming. Since livestock farming has profound impacts on the lifestyle and livelihoods of these communities, the present study examines their experience in facing drought and identifies their management strategies in these conditions. The research method is qualitative and the research tool is in-depth interviews with 20 semi-nomadic people in Darbandi, Kalat-Naderi. Sampling was purposeful and carried out until theoretical saturation was reached to ensure that a wide range of perspectives and experiences were collected. The data from the interviews were analyzed using a qualitative grounded theory approach to extract key patterns and concepts. According to the findings, the semi-nomadic Darbandi people of Kalat County have adopted various strategies in the face of drought, which are classified into four categories: rangeland and grazing management strategies, livestock nutrition management, water consumption management, and livelihood diversification. These results can be used as a basis for formulating better policies in the field of crisis management and rural development. Also, these results can be used for more effective planning to reduce the vulnerability of nomads to drought.

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The vulnerability of rural settlements to environmental hazards necessitates attention to local resilience. The aim of this study was to prioritize the factors affecting the physical-environmental and institutional resilience of Divshal rural district. The approach of the present study is descriptive-analytical and survey. Data collection was done in two forms: documentary and field (expert questionnaire). The statistical population of the study is 16 Rural managers of Divshal rural district. Using DEMATEL and ANP techniques, the obtained data were analyzed. According to the results of the ANP method, the sub-criteria of respecting the privacy of roads and preserving indigenous and cultural identity in new constructions have the greatest impact on the resilience of the study area. Also in the quality index of passages, sub-criteria of observing the privacy of passages; In the index of quality of access to services and infrastructure, quality of access to welfare and administrative services; In the shelter index, the existence of a strong public shelter in critical situations; In the index of quality of housing and constructions, preservation of indigenous and cultural identity in new constructions; In the environmental quality index, waste collection and disposal; In land use quality index, proper location of land uses; In the context of institutions, the existence of administrative organizations and institutions to help people; And in the Index of Institutional Relations, the cooperation of institutions in facilitating laws and giving credit to the people has the greatest effect on physical-environmental and institutional resilience.

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This study employs the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to assess the vulnerability and resilience of the urban water distribution network in the Feyzabad and Baharan districts of Sanandaj against the parameter of Peak Ground Velocity (PGV). The main objective is to identify the key factors influencing network vulnerability and to propose strategies for enhancing the resilience of this critical infrastructure. PGV values were derived based on data from 40 faults longer than 10 km within a 70 km radius of the city, using empirical attenuation relationships. Geological, geomorphological, soil type, and pipe diameter and material data were collected from reliable local sources.In the AHP model, the main criteria including PGV, geology, soil, pipe material, and pipe diameter were integrated with weights of 0.460, 0.112, 0.243, and 0.182, respectively, and vulnerability maps of the network were generated. Results showed that PGV values across the city range between 35 and 39 cm/s. In Feyzabad, lower PGV values combined with thick steel pipes and Quaternary alluvial soils resulted in 81% of the network falling into the low-vulnerability class and only 2.1% into the high-vulnerability class. Conversely, in Baharan, higher PGV values (39 cm/s), combined with small-diameter asbestos pipes and shale bedrock, placed 34% of the network in the very high-vulnerability class.