Volume 9, Issue 4 (3-2023)                   Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental Hazards 2023, 9(4): 143-158 | Back to browse issues page

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Estimation of ETp in the southern part of Aras Basin based on the data of CORDEX dynamic downscale GFDL model
Bromand Salahi 1, Mahnaz Saber2 , Abbas Mofidi3
1- University of Mohaghegh Ardabili , bromand416@yahoo.com
2- University of Mohaghegh Ardabili
3- Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
Abstract:   (1293 Views)
evapotranspiration is one of the most important components in water balance and management. In this research, to evaluate the effects of climate change on the amount of potential evapotranspiration in the southern part of the Aras River Basin using the downscaled data of the GFDL-ESM2M model in the CORDEX dynamic downscale under the RCP8.5 scenario during the period of 2021-2050 and its comparison. It is treated with the values ​​of the base period (1985-2005). Data with a horizontal resolution of 22 x 22 km from the GFDL-ESM2M model were used in this research. The findings of the research showed that the minimum and maximum temperature and, accordingly, the ETp of the future period will increase compared to the base period in all six studied stations of Aras Basin (Ardebil, Ahar, Jolfa, Khoi, Mako and Pars-Abad). The value of this minimum temperature increase is estimated between 1.4 and 3.8 ºC and for the maximum temperature between 1.7 and 2.2ºC. The range of annual ETp increase varies from 133 mm to 189 mm. In the monthly ETp scale of all stations from January to July with an increase between 3.9 and 1.64 mm and from August to December with a decrease of 0.7 to 38.2 mm. Estimating the increase of ETp in the future period in the basin, especially in the months of spring, which is very important in terms of water demand, requires special attention to the possibility of this estimated increase in the planning of the water and energy sector.
 
Keywords: Aras, CMIP5, GFDL model, potential evapotranspiration, RCP8.5.
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Type of Study: Research | Subject: Special
Received: 2022/12/3 | Accepted: 2024/02/11 | Published: 2023/06/11
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