Journal of Spatial Analysis

Tehran, in the south of Alborz Mountains, is faced with three types of weather risk, weather risk caused by geography, climatic risks caused by air resistance and weather risk due to global warming. The aim of this study is to examine the three types of risk in Tehran. The method of this study was to evaluate the changes of synoptic factors that affect global warming and urban development. In order to detect the height changes of 500 hPa two 5-year periods including 1948 to 1952 and 2010 to 2014, were studied.

     The results showed that changes in heights of 500 geopotential, there was an increased risk in the city of Tehran. The effect of climate change in recent decades,  increased the stability of  air in Tehran. Human factors in the formation of heat islands, increase LCL height and density of the air balance is transferred to a higher altitude. Changing urban wind field, atmospheric turbulence intensified, exacerbated thermodynamic gradient, fat and refugee cyclones, heat island effect of the city.

Thermal stability in the warm period will appear. The thermal stability of all levels of lower, middle and upper troposphere was intensified. Thermal stability couraged the  development of subtropical high pressure in the area. With the arrival of the atmospheric pressure during calm and humid days the stability and pollution were increased. Negative vorticity from early June  developed the intensive high pressure over the region. Compare the conditions of the two study periods  showed that  : the height of the high pressure was 100 meters higher than the second period. The number of days of intensified subtropical high increased during the second period.  The high pressure has moved to the northern areas during the second period. This change in the subtropical high pressure increased the dry periods motivating the loss of vegetation. Heat island effect was increased as well. More than 90% of the  temperature inversions occurred  at an altitude of less than 500 meters in both warm and cold periods of year. Wind direction at both stations has shown that the establishment of any pollutant source in the West of Tehran will increase the pollution.