دوره 17، شماره 47 - ( 10-1396 )
جلد 17 شماره 47 صفحات 189دوره171فصل__Se |
برگشت به فهرست نسخه ها
Download citation:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:
Sasanpour F. Future Studies Urban bubble in Tehran metropolitan. jgs 2017; 17 (47) :171-189
URL: http://jgs.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2944-fa.html
URL: http://jgs.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2944-fa.html
ساسان پور فرزانه، حاتمی افشار، بابایی شایان. آینده پژوهی حباب شهرنشینی در کلانشهر تهران. نشریه تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی. 1396; 17 (47) :171-189
1- دانشگاه خوارزمی تهران ، sasanpour@khu.ac.ir
2- دانشگاه خوارزمی تهران
3- دانشگاه خوارزمی تهران
2- دانشگاه خوارزمی تهران
3- دانشگاه خوارزمی تهران
چکیده: (8163 مشاهده)
حباب شهرنشینی مفهوم جدیدی در عرصه برنامه ریزی شهری برای بررسی پایداری و ناپایداری در سطوح مختلف اجتماعی، اقتصادی، زیست محیطی، مدیریتی است. تاکنون تعریف مشترکی از حباب شهرنشینی ارایه نشده است که حاکی از عدم وجود مطالعات بسیار در این زمینه می باشد. این پژوهش به دنبال آن است تا وضعیت آینده حباب شهرنشینی در کلانشهر تهران را با استفاده از رویکرد سناریو مورد بررسی قرار دهد. این پژوهش به لحاظ هدف کاربردی و به لحاظ ماهیت و روش تحقیق توصیفی تحلیلی از نوع اکتشافی است. اطلاعات مورد نیاز پژوهش از طریق مطالعات میدانی و اسنادی گردآوری شدند. در مطالعات میدانی از تکنیک دلفی در قالب گروه 30 نفره انجام شد. برای تحلیل داده ها از روش تحلیل اثرات متقابل در نرم افزار MICMAC استفاده شد. نتایج پژوهش حاکی از آن است که 56 عامل بعنوان عوامل کلیدی در پنج بعد نهادی، مدیریتی، اقتصادی، اجتماعی و زیست محیطی موثر بر وضعیت آینده حباب شهرنشینی شناسایی شدند. سپس با نظر خبرگان به 25 عامل پیشران تقلیل یافتند. وضعیت پراکندگی متغیرها حاکی از ناپایداری سیستم کلانشهری تهران می باشد. پنج دسته عوامل تاثیرگذار، دووجهی، تنظیمی، تاثیرپذیر و مستقل شناسایی شدند. امتیازات نهایی و رتبه بندی عوامل کلیدی انجام شد و در نهایت سه سناریو برای وضعیت آینده حباب شهرنشینی در کلانشهر تهران ارایه گردید.
نوع مطالعه: كاربردي |
موضوع مقاله:
جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری
فهرست منابع
1. Amer, M., Daim, T. U., & Jetter, A. (2013). A review of scenario planning. Futures, 46, 23–40.
2. Bala, B. K., Arshad, F. M., & Noh, K. M. (2017). System Dynamics : Modelling and simulation. SpringerReference.
3. Baur, D. G., & Heaney, R. (2017). Bubbles in the Australian housing market. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 44, 113–126.
4. Bell, W. (2003). Foundations of Futures Studies: History, Purposes, and Knowledge (Vol. 1). New Brunswick. NJ: Transaction Publishers.
5. Cheng, M. N., Wong, J. W. K., Cheung, C. F., & Leung, K. H. (2016). A scenario-based roadmapping method for strategic planning and forecasting: A case study in a testing, inspection and certification company. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 111, 44–62.
6. Daffara, P. (2011). Rethinking tomorrow’s cities: Emerging issues on city foresight. Futures.
7. Dator, J. (2007). What futures studies is, and is not. University of Hawaii, Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies. Retrieved from http://futures.hawaii.edu/publications/futures-studies/WhatFSis1995.pdf%5Cnhttp://www.futures.hawaii.edu/publications/futures-studies/WhatFSis1995.pdf
8. Ejaro, S. P., & Abubakar, A. (2013). Impact of rapid urbanization on sustainable development of Nyanya , Federal Capital Territory , Abuja , Nigeria. The International Journal’s Research Journal of Social Sciences and Management, 3, 31–44.
9. Fernández Muñoz, S., & Collado Cueto, L. (2017). What has happened in Spain? The real estate bubble, corruption and housing development: A view from the local level. Geoforum, 85(March 2015), 206–213.
10. Glaeser, E. L., Gyourko, J., & Saiz, A. (2008). Housing supply and housing bubbles. Journal of Urban Economics, 64(2), 198–217.
11. Glenn, J. C., & Gordon, T. J. (2009). Futures Research Methodology-Version 3-0. Editorial desconocida.
12. González, R. C. L., José, M., Mantiñán, P., & Miró, S. V. (2016). The Urban Bubble Process in Spain : an Interpretation From the Theory of the Circuits of Capital. Journal of Urban and Regional Analysis, VIII(1), 5–20.
13. Grayson, L. E. (1987). Who and How in Planning for Large Companies: Generalizations from the Experiences of Oil Companies. Springer.
14. Huang, W., Huang, Y., Lin, S., Chen, Z., Gao, B., & Cui, S. (2018). Changing urban cement metabolism under rapid urbanization – A flow and stock perspective. Journal of Cleaner Production, 173, 197–206.
15. Kosow, H., & Gaßner, R. (2008). Methods of Future and Scenario Analysis.
16. Liu, C. H., Nowak, A., & Rosenthal, S. S. (2016). Housing price bubbles, new supply, and within-city dynamics. Journal of Urban Economics, 96, 55–72.
17. Lucas, J. P. (2012). Essays on City Size Distribution and Real Estate Bubbles.
18. Mahmud, J. (2011). City foresight and development planning case study: Implementation of scenario planning in formulation of the Bulungan development plan. Futures, 43(7), 697–706.
19. Martelli, A. (2014). Models of Scenario Building and Planning: Facing Uncertainty and Complexity.
20. Masini, E. (2006). Rethinking futures studies. Futures, 38(10), 1158–1168.
21. Masini, E. B. (2001). New challenges for futures studies. Futures, 33(7), 637–647.
22. Naeimi, K., & Pourmohammadi, M. R. (2016). Identifying the key factors influencing the future status of urban slums regarding future study approach: the case study of Sanandaj, 5(20), 53–64. Retrieved from http://urbstudies.uok.ac.ir/article_40902.html
23. Sardar, Z. (2010). The Namesake: Futures; futures studies; futurology; futuristic; foresight—What’s in a name? Futures, 42(3), 177–184.
24. Singh, R. B. (2015). Urban development challenges, risks and resilience in asian mega cities. Springer.
25. Slaughter, R. A. (2002). Futures studies as a civilizational catalyst. Futures, 34(3–4), 349–363.
26. Smith, M. H., Smith, G., Mayer, C., & Shiller, R. J. (2006). Bubble , Bubble , Where â€TM s the Housing Bubble ?/ Comments and Discussion, 2006(1), 51–67.
27. Teng, H.-J., Chang, C.-O., & Chau, K. W. (2013). Housing bubbles: A tale of two cities. Habitat International, 39, 8–15.
28. Tsai, I.-C., & Peng, C.-W. (2011). Bubbles in the Taiwan housing market: The determinants and effects. Habitat International, 35(2), 379–390.
29. United Nations. (2016). UN World Cities Report 2016: Abridged Edition. UN Habitat. Retrieved from http://wcr.unhabitat.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/WCR-2016_-Abridged-version-1.pdf
30. Von Der Gracht, H. A. (2008). The future of logistics: Scenarios for 2025. The Future of Logistics: Scenarios for 2025.
31. von Stackelberg, P., & McDowell, A. (2015). What in the world? Storyworlds, science fiction, and futures studies. Journal of Futures Studies, 20(2), 25–46.
32. Wack, P. (1985). Ж scenarios: uncharted waters ahead. Harvard Business Review September–October.
33. Wang, J. (2011). Measurement of the urbanization bubble in China: Empirical study based on 35 large and middle cities. Urban Studies, 11, 6.
34. Zegras, C., & Rayle, L. (2012). Testing the rhetoric: An approach to assess scenario planning’s role as a catalyst for urban policy integration. Futures, 44(4), 303–318.
35. Zhao, S. X. B., Zhan, H., Jiang, Y., & Pan, W. (2017). How big is China’s real estate bubble and why hasn’t it burst yet? Land Use Policy, 64, 153–162.
36. Zhou, J., Zhang, X., & Shen, L. (2015). Urbanization bubble: Four quadrants measurement model. Cities, 46, 8–15.
37. http://gbn.com/about/started.php , 9/2/2018, 5:49
38. Amer, M., Daim, T. U., & Jetter, A. (2013). A review of scenario planning. Futures, 46, 23–40.
39. Bala, B. K., Arshad, F. M., & Noh, K. M. (2017). System Dynamics : Modelling and simulation. SpringerReference.
40. Baur, D. G., & Heaney, R. (2017). Bubbles in the Australian housing market. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 44, 113–126.
41. Bell, W. (2003). Foundations of Futures Studies: History, Purposes, and Knowledge (Vol. 1). New Brunswick. NJ: Transaction Publishers.
42. Cheng, M. N., Wong, J. W. K., Cheung, C. F., & Leung, K. H. (2016). A scenario-based roadmapping method for strategic planning and forecasting: A case study in a testing, inspection and certification company. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 111, 44–62.
43. Daffara, P. (2011). Rethinking tomorrow’s cities: Emerging issues on city foresight. Futures.
44. Dator, J. (2007). What futures studies is, and is not. University of Hawaii, Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies. Retrieved from http://futures.hawaii.edu/publications/futures-studies/WhatFSis1995.pdf%5Cnhttp://www.futures.hawaii.edu/publications/futures-studies/WhatFSis1995.pdf
45. Ejaro, S. P., & Abubakar, A. (2013). Impact of rapid urbanization on sustainable development of Nyanya , Federal Capital Territory , Abuja , Nigeria. The International Journal’s Research Journal of Social Sciences and Management, 3, 31–44.
46. Fernández Muñoz, S., & Collado Cueto, L. (2017). What has happened in Spain? The real estate bubble, corruption and housing development: A view from the local level. Geoforum, 85(March 2015), 206–213.
47. Glaeser, E. L., Gyourko, J., & Saiz, A. (2008). Housing supply and housing bubbles. Journal of Urban Economics, 64(2), 198–217.
48. Glenn, J. C., & Gordon, T. J. (2009). Futures Research Methodology-Version 3-0. Editorial desconocida.
49. González, R. C. L., José, M., Mantiñán, P., & Miró, S. V. (2016). The Urban Bubble Process in Spain : an Interpretation From the Theory of the Circuits of Capital. Journal of Urban and Regional Analysis, VIII(1), 5–20.
50. Grayson, L. E. (1987). Who and How in Planning for Large Companies: Generalizations from the Experiences of Oil Companies. Springer.
51. Huang, W., Huang, Y., Lin, S., Chen, Z., Gao, B., & Cui, S. (2018). Changing urban cement metabolism under rapid urbanization – A flow and stock perspective. Journal of Cleaner Production, 173, 197–206.
52. Kosow, H., & Gaßner, R. (2008). Methods of Future and Scenario Analysis.
53. Liu, C. H., Nowak, A., & Rosenthal, S. S. (2016). Housing price bubbles, new supply, and within-city dynamics. Journal of Urban Economics, 96, 55–72.
54. Lucas, J. P. (2012). Essays on City Size Distribution and Real Estate Bubbles.
55. Mahmud, J. (2011). City foresight and development planning case study: Implementation of scenario planning in formulation of the Bulungan development plan. Futures, 43(7), 697–706.
56. Martelli, A. (2014). Models of Scenario Building and Planning: Facing Uncertainty and Complexity.
57. Masini, E. (2006). Rethinking futures studies. Futures, 38(10), 1158–1168.
58. Masini, E. B. (2001). New challenges for futures studies. Futures, 33(7), 637–647.
59. Naeimi, K., & Pourmohammadi, M. R. (2016). Identifying the key factors influencing the future status of urban slums regarding future study approach: the case study of Sanandaj, 5(20), 53–64. Retrieved from http://urbstudies.uok.ac.ir/article_40902.html
60. Sardar, Z. (2010). The Namesake: Futures; futures studies; futurology; futuristic; foresight—What’s in a name? Futures, 42(3), 177–184.
61. Singh, R. B. (2015). Urban development challenges, risks and resilience in asian mega cities. Springer.
62. Slaughter, R. A. (2002). Futures studies as a civilizational catalyst. Futures, 34(3–4), 349–363.
63. Smith, M. H., Smith, G., Mayer, C., & Shiller, R. J. (2006). Bubble , Bubble , Where â€TM s the Housing Bubble ?/ Comments and Discussion, 2006(1), 51–67.
64. Teng, H.-J., Chang, C.-O., & Chau, K. W. (2013). Housing bubbles: A tale of two cities. Habitat International, 39, 8–15.
65. Tsai, I.-C., & Peng, C.-W. (2011). Bubbles in the Taiwan housing market: The determinants and effects. Habitat International, 35(2), 379–390.
66. United Nations. (2016). UN World Cities Report 2016: Abridged Edition. UN Habitat. Retrieved from http://wcr.unhabitat.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/WCR-2016_-Abridged-version-1.pdf
67. Von Der Gracht, H. A. (2008). The future of logistics: Scenarios for 2025. The Future of Logistics: Scenarios for 2025.
68. von Stackelberg, P., & McDowell, A. (2015). What in the world? Storyworlds, science fiction, and futures studies. Journal of Futures Studies, 20(2), 25–46.
69. Wack, P. (1985). Ж scenarios: uncharted waters ahead. Harvard Business Review September–October.
70. Wang, J. (2011). Measurement of the urbanization bubble in China: Empirical study based on 35 large and middle cities. Urban Studies, 11, 6.
71. Zegras, C., & Rayle, L. (2012). Testing the rhetoric: An approach to assess scenario planning’s role as a catalyst for urban policy integration. Futures, 44(4), 303–318.
72. Zhao, S. X. B., Zhan, H., Jiang, Y., & Pan, W. (2017). How big is China’s real estate bubble and why hasn’t it burst yet? Land Use Policy, 64, 153–162.
73. Zhou, J., Zhang, X., & Shen, L. (2015). Urbanization bubble: Four quadrants measurement model. Cities, 46, 8–15.
74. http://gbn.com/about/started.php , 9/2/2018, 5:49
75. Amer, M., Daim, T. U., & Jetter, A. (2013). A review of scenario planning. Futures, 46, 23–40. [DOI:10.1016/j.futures.2012.10.003]
76. Bala, B. K., Arshad, F. M., & Noh, K. M. (2017). System Dynamics : Modelling and simulation. SpringerReference. [DOI:10.1007/SpringerReference_7284]
77. Baur, D. G., & Heaney, R. (2017). Bubbles in the Australian housing market. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 44, 113–126. [DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2017.06.001]
78. Bell, W. (2003). Foundations of Futures Studies: History, Purposes, and Knowledge (Vol. 1). New Brunswick. NJ: Transaction Publishers.
79. Cheng, M. N., Wong, J. W. K., Cheung, C. F., & Leung, K. H. (2016). A scenario-based roadmapping method for strategic planning and forecasting: A case study in a testing, inspection and certification company. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 111, 44–62. [DOI:10.1016/j.techfore.2016.06.005]
80. Daffara, P. (2011). Rethinking tomorrow’s cities: Emerging issues on city foresight. Futures. [DOI:10.1016/j.futures.2011.05.009]
81. Dator, J. (2007). What futures studies is, and is not. University of Hawaii, Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies. Retrieved from http://futures.hawaii.edu/publications/futures-studies/WhatFSis1995.pdf%5Cnhttp://www.futures.hawaii.edu/publications/futures-studies/WhatFSis1995.pdf
82. Ejaro, S. P., & Abubakar, A. (2013). Impact of rapid urbanization on sustainable development of Nyanya , Federal Capital Territory , Abuja , Nigeria. The International Journal’s Research Journal of Social Sciences and Management, 3, 31–44.
83. Fernández Muñoz, S., & Collado Cueto, L. (2017). What has happened in Spain? The real estate bubble, corruption and housing development: A view from the local level. Geoforum, 85(March 2015), 206–213. [DOI:10.1016/j.geoforum.2017.08.002]
84. Glaeser, E. L., Gyourko, J., & Saiz, A. (2008). Housing supply and housing bubbles. Journal of Urban Economics, 64(2), 198–217. [DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2008.07.007]
85. Glenn, J. C., & Gordon, T. J. (2009). Futures Research Methodology-Version 3-0. Editorial desconocida.
86. González, R. C. L., José, M., Mantiñán, P., & Miró, S. V. (2016). The Urban Bubble Process in Spain : an Interpretation From the Theory of the Circuits of Capital. Journal of Urban and Regional Analysis, VIII(1), 5–20.
87. Grayson, L. E. (1987). Who and How in Planning for Large Companies: Generalizations from the Experiences of Oil Companies. Springer.
88. Huang, W., Huang, Y., Lin, S., Chen, Z., Gao, B., & Cui, S. (2018). Changing urban cement metabolism under rapid urbanization – A flow and stock perspective. Journal of Cleaner Production, 173, 197–206. [DOI:10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.01.008]
89. Kosow, H., & Gaßner, R. (2008). Methods of Future and Scenario Analysis.
90. Liu, C. H., Nowak, A., & Rosenthal, S. S. (2016). Housing price bubbles, new supply, and within-city dynamics. Journal of Urban Economics, 96, 55–72. [DOI:10.1016/j.jue.2016.08.002]
91. Lucas, J. P. (2012). Essays on City Size Distribution and Real Estate Bubbles.
92. Mahmud, J. (2011). City foresight and development planning case study: Implementation of scenario planning in formulation of the Bulungan development plan. Futures, 43(7), 697–706. [DOI:10.1016/j.futures.2011.05.011]
93. Martelli, A. (2014). Models of Scenario Building and Planning: Facing Uncertainty and Complexity.
94. Masini, E. (2006). Rethinking futures studies. Futures, 38(10), 1158–1168. [DOI:10.1016/j.futures.2006.02.004]
95. Masini, E. B. (2001). New challenges for futures studies. Futures, 33(7), 637–647. [DOI:10.1016/S0016-3287(01)00006-4]
96. Naeimi, K., & Pourmohammadi, M. R. (2016). Identifying the key factors influencing the future status of urban slums regarding future study approach: the case study of Sanandaj, 5(20), 53–64. Retrieved from http://urbstudies.uok.ac.ir/article_40902.html
97. Sardar, Z. (2010). The Namesake: Futures; futures studies; futurology; futuristic; foresight—What’s in a name? Futures, 42(3), 177–184. [DOI:10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.001]
98. Singh, R. B. (2015). Urban development challenges, risks and resilience in asian mega cities. Springer.
99. Slaughter, R. A. (2002). Futures studies as a civilizational catalyst. Futures, 34(3–4), 349–363. [DOI:10.1016/S0016-3287(01)00049-0]
100. Smith, M. H., Smith, G., Mayer, C., & Shiller, R. J. (2006). Bubble , Bubble , Where â€TM s the Housing Bubble ?/ Comments and Discussion, 2006(1), 51–67.
101. Teng, H.-J., Chang, C.-O., & Chau, K. W. (2013). Housing bubbles: A tale of two cities. Habitat International, 39, 8–15. [DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2012.10.009]
102. Tsai, I.-C., & Peng, C.-W. (2011). Bubbles in the Taiwan housing market: The determinants and effects. Habitat International, 35(2), 379–390. [DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2010.11.010]
103. United Nations. (2016). UN World Cities Report 2016: Abridged Edition. UN Habitat. Retrieved from http://wcr.unhabitat.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/WCR-2016_-Abridged-version-1.pdf
104. Von Der Gracht, H. A. (2008). The future of logistics: Scenarios for 2025. The Future of Logistics: Scenarios for 2025. [DOI:10.1007/978-3-8349-9764-7]
105. von Stackelberg, P., & McDowell, A. (2015). What in the world? Storyworlds, science fiction, and futures studies. Journal of Futures Studies, 20(2), 25–46. [DOI:10.6531/JFS.2015.20(2).A25]
106. Wack, P. (1985). Ж scenarios: uncharted waters ahead. Harvard Business Review September–October.
107. Wang, J. (2011). Measurement of the urbanization bubble in China: Empirical study based on 35 large and middle cities. Urban Studies, 11, 6.
108. Zegras, C., & Rayle, L. (2012). Testing the rhetoric: An approach to assess scenario planning’s role as a catalyst for urban policy integration. Futures, 44(4), 303–318. [DOI:10.1016/j.futures.2011.10.013]
109. Zhao, S. X. B., Zhan, H., Jiang, Y., & Pan, W. (2017). How big is China’s real estate bubble and why hasn’t it burst yet? Land Use Policy, 64, 153–162. [DOI:10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.02.024]
110. Zhou, J., Zhang, X., & Shen, L. (2015). Urbanization bubble: Four quadrants measurement model. Cities, 46, 8–15. [DOI:10.1016/j.cities.2015.04.007]
111. http://gbn.com/about/started.php , 9/2/2018, 5:49
ارسال پیام به نویسنده مسئول
| بازنشر اطلاعات | |
 |
این مقاله تحت شرایط Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License قابل بازنشر است. |
CC BY
نشریه «تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی» به‌طور کامل الزامات انتشار دسترسی آزاد را طبق«CreativeCommons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)» رعایت می‌کند.
