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  The intensive effects of “targeted subsidies plan” and its implementation and that of the price of energy carriers on macroeconomic variables such as private consumption and Gross National Product, therefore increase in the price of energy carriers and the relevant issues have been debating and discussing for a long time. Regarding the significance of the issue and also its effect on the economic and society welfare, further and more comprehensive investigations into this subject seems to be necessary. This paper is presented with a review of previous studies and then explores the effect of the increase in the price of energy carriers on the three important macroeconomic variables, i.e. GDP growth, inflation and private consumption in the context of a structural vector regression to model SVAR. The results show that due to implementation of this plan, the economic growth and the private consumption decrease but the inflation will increase. The results showed that, the energy price index shocks the most influence on inflation variation are explained so that voters, in the medium term and long-term changes and about 40 percent of fluctuations in inflation, energy price shocks is described. Other findings of this study is that, in the long-term energy price shocks indices respectively about 20 and 11 percent of the fluctuations in private consumption and gross domestic product by the explained. It should be noted that all results, without considering the effects of resource redistribution payment received from government subsidies are.

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Industrial energy demand analysis has always been one of the leading fields of research in economics. This issue is more critical in the case of developing countries especially those with transition experiences. In this paper, third generation of dynamic factor demand models for the Iranian manufacturing industries is estimated to analyze the speed of adjustment in factor demands. Data which is used in this study is an Iranian industrial plant based on two-digit international classification code during 1374-1386. The translog functional form is used as model specification. The main findings are the complementary relation between energy carriers, electricity, and capital and low adjustment speed of capital stock. In Iranian manufacturing industries, demand for energy carriers and capital, with expansion of manufacturing activities and technological change has increased, while the demand for labor has decreased.

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This article seeks to modeling social welfare functions, for assessment of how distribution of transfer payment among socio-economic levels. We consider providing social welfare functions two scenarios, first the each socio-economic levels receives amount of transfer payment equal to others, and second the each socio-economic levels receives that with weighted preferences. The four basic functions determine optimal value of how distribution, and then calculate actual value of that by transforming COICOP to ISIC . Finally the difference between optimal and actual values is determined for rural and urban society and for first and second scenario. At the first scenario the difference between optimal and actual value is smaller than second and this difference at rural society is greater than urban society. The other hand the welfare distribution at the former is worse than later.

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This paper presents an AHP and FLP model for the allocation of energy subsidies to different economic sectors. To do so, we defined a group of socio-economic criteria that may affected by the allocation of energy subsidies. These criteria are: economic growth, energy intensity, labor intensity, inflation, social cost of air pollutions and distribution of energy subsidy among socio-economic levels. According to calculated weights, we determined the priority of the above mentioned criteria. Also, according to the optimum overall rank of economic sectors, the commercial sector has the highest rank followed by industrial, agricultural and household and transportation sectors. After determining the final coefficients of AHP approach, we determined the allocation of energy subsidies using linier programming approach. We also considerd the change in technology and consumption patterns of household and transportation sectors. Results show that the share of energy subsidies allocated to commercial and transportation sectors should increase to 30.4 and 28.6 percent respectively.

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Although fossil fuels consumption may causes to rapid economic growth, but due to related pollutants and its consequences, the world has suffered from climate changes. Moreover, fossil fuel resources such as petroleum, gas, coal and uranium are being exhausted rapidly in the last decades. Therefore, seeking an appropriate as well as low-cost alternative for the above-mentioned energy carriers is one of the most important research topics. Regarding this situation, the utilization of renewable energy sources especially solar and wind energies is very important. In this study, the social welfare is maximized and optimal trajectory of solar and wind energy substitution is derived by using an optimal control approach. The model is solved empirically by genetic algorithm using MATLAB software. The results show that assuming social discount rate of 5% and no reduction in solar and wind energy conversion cost during next years, transition from fossil energy to solar and wind energy must occur in 2089 while assuming a 50 % reduction in solar and wind energy conversion cost in every 10 years period, this transition must take place in 2032.

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In this study, we designed and simulated a system dynamic model to analyze the impacts of energy intensity changes on environmental and economic indicators in Iran. Results show that if the current situation is continued, the industrial sector energy intensity will increase from 2.67 in the base year to 2.704 at the end of planning horizon. So, the sector will consume 540 million oil barrels to create a value added equals 490627 billion Rials in 2025. Accordingly, the amount of environmental pollutants will increase from 59 million tons in the first year to 267 million tons in 2025 and social costs of producing this pollution would be equal to 67, 449 billion Rials. These findings indicate that regarding the limitation of the production and the increasing costs of energy supply in the future, the country's industrial policies should concentrate on technological changes to increase the efficiency of energy consumption. Also, results indicate that industrial energy consumption has destructive effects on the environment and society in the future and the costs in this sector will not be reversible.

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Energy carrier’s subsidization has placed a significant pressure on government budget in Iran thus, energy price increase is performed in order to ameliorate this case. One of the main challenges that policymakers need to consider is the impact of energy prices increase on the labor market especially, when the national unemployment rate is high. This paper utilizes a computable general equilibrium model based on a Micro Consistent Matrix for 2006 in order to evaluate the impact of energy price increase on the Iranian labor market during 2006. The empirical results are based on two scenarios: Baseline and FOB price increase scenarios. They show that the activity level and demand for labor in “crude oil, natural gas, and coal” as well as “other services” sectors will increase in short-run while the energy carriers’ prices increase. However, in long-run, the labor increment will be lower. Furthermore, the model results indicate that in short-run, the activity level and demand for labor in the other sectors will decrease. On the other hand, the policy will result in a larger decrement in the activity level and demand for labor in these sectors in long-run.

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This paper tries to model the electricity demand in Iran’s industrial sector which captures economic factors and also non-economic exogenous factors. The structural time series model (STSM) approach is employed which allows using economic theory and time series flexibility. In this approach the role of UEDT (Underlying Energy Demand Trend) including technological improvement and structural changes is modeled, therefore the income and price elasticity are estimated more accurately. The results show that the UEDT has the stochastic nature. And UEDT has a great impact on industrial energy demand during 1975-2012. So, the electricity has not been used efficiently in this sector. In the short run the estimation of the income and price elasticity are 0.42 and 0.11 respectively. The value of the cross-price elasticity of electricity demand is estimated about 0.06. It shows that natural gas substitute electricity in industrial sector, however it is small.