دوره 11، شماره 41 - ( 7-1399 )
سال11 شماره 41 صفحات 144-91 |
برگشت به فهرست نسخه ها
Download citation:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:
Mirnezami S R, Rajabi S, Moridi Farimani F. The Inflationary Effects of Increasing Electricity Price - in Different Consumption Tariffs - on Economic Activities and Household Cost: Input-Output Method. jemr 2020; 11 (41) :91-144
URL: http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2033-fa.html
URL: http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2033-fa.html
میرنظامی سید رضا، رجبی سجاد، مریدی فریمانی فاضل. تحلیل آثار تورمی افزایش قیمت برق در تعرفه‌های مختلف مصرف بر فعالیت‌های اقتصادی و خانوارها با استفاده از روش داده-ستانده. تحقیقات مدلسازی اقتصادی. 1399; 11 (41) :91-144
1- دانشگاه صنعتی شریف ، srmirnezami@sharif.edu
2- دانشگاه امام صادق (ع)
3- دانشگاه شهید بهشتی
2- دانشگاه امام صادق (ع)
3- دانشگاه شهید بهشتی
چکیده: (4136 مشاهده)
کاهش یا حذف یارانه بخش برق در اقتصاد، از گذشته همواره به‌عنوان یک راهکار در جهت کنترل مصرف روزافزون برق مطرح بوده است. با افزایش یا کاهش یارانه برق، مالیات غیرمستقیم کاهش یا افزایش می‌یابد. در این شرایط تحت فرض ثبات نهادههای اولیه و ثبات تکنولوژی تولید برق و بر مبنای مدلسازی داده-ستانده، تأثیرات افزایش قیمت برق بر قیمت کالاهای تولیدی بخشهای 75گانه اقتصادی سنجیده شد. نتایج این شبیهسازی -که تحت سه سناریوی افزایش قیمت برق به میزان 7%، 16% و 23% انجام‌شده است- نشان می‌دهد که تورم بخشهای «ارتباطات»، «ساخت محصولات غذایی» و «ساخت محصولات کانی غیرفلزی طبقه‌بندی نشده» بیشتر از سایر بخش‌ها خواهد بود. با در نظر گرفتن مجموع منافع به‌دست‌آمده از افزایش قیمت و هزینه‌های اقتصادی-اجتماعی آن برای مشترکین خانگی، سناریو «افزایش قیمت تعرفه مشترکین مصارف خانگی 7%»، «افزایش قیمت تعرفه مصارف عمومی 16%»، «افزایش قیمت تعرفه مشترکین مصارف تولید آب و کشاورزی 16%»، «افزایش قیمت تعرفه مشترکین مصارف تولید صنعت و معدن 23%» و درنهایت «افزایش قیمت تعرفه مشترکین سایر مصارف 23%» می‌تواند تعرفه پیشنهادی برای افزایش قیمت برق باشد.
نوع مطالعه: كاربردي |
موضوع مقاله:
انرژی، منابع و محیط زیست
دریافت: 1399/2/20 | پذیرش: 1399/8/18 | انتشار: 1399/10/21
دریافت: 1399/2/20 | پذیرش: 1399/8/18 | انتشار: 1399/10/21
فهرست منابع
1. Abbasian E, Asadbagi Z. The Effects of Energy Carelers' Subsidy Targeting on Social Welfare through Economic Growth. refahj. 2012; 12 (44):143-173. (in Persian)
2. Abbasinegad, H. Vafinajar, D. (2004). Investigation of energy efficiency and productivity in different economic sectors and estimation of input and price elasticity of energy in the industrial sector. Journal of Economic Research, 66: 198-119. (in Persian)
3. Alizadeh, M. (2010). An Introduction to the economic effects of targeted subsidies. Journal of City Economics. 8. 96-108. (in Persian)
4. Asgari, M. (2004). Iran's general applied equilibrium model. Economic Research Journal. 4 (15). 11-52. (in Persian)
5. Bagherinezhad, Z., Abdullahi, B., Hassanpour, A., J'afarinia, S. (2020). Designing a Model for Social Responsibility Human Resource Management in Electric Power Industry. Journal of Research in Human Resources Management, 12(2), 147-187. (in Persian)
6. Baloon nejad, R. (2018). The Distributional Effects of Increasing the Price of Energy Carriers in Iran: Comparison of Input-Output Price Models. Quarterly Journal of Economic Growth and Development Research, 8(30), 167-187. (in Persian)
7. Bastanzadeh, H. Nili, F. (2005). Objectives of energy carrier pricing policy in the Iranian economy. Economics Study. 68(34). 201-226. (in Persian)
8. Bazzazan, Fatemeh; Batey, Peter (2010): The Development and Empirical Testing of Extended Input-Output Price Models. In Economic Systems Research 15 (1), pp. 69-86. DOI: 1080/10/0953531032000056945. [DOI:10.1080/0953531032000056945]
9. Bhattacharyya, S. C. (2019). Energy economics: concepts, issues, markets and governance. Springer Nature. [DOI:10.1007/978-1-4471-7468-4]
10. Boratyński, Jakub (2006): Indirect Taxes and Price Fonnation a Model for the Polish Economy. In Univeristy of Lodz 41, pp. 1-25.
11. Bulmer-Thomas, V. (1982): Input-output analysis in developing countries. Sources, methods and applications / V. Bulmer-Thomas. Chichester: Wiley.
12. Dahl, C. (2015). International energy markets: Understanding pricing, policies, & profits. PennWell Books.
13. Dan, Xu; Rencheng, Tong (2008): An Input-Output Sticky-price Model. In Management School of Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijin, China.
14. Davod M, rezaee H. Calculating Electricity Shadow Price in Iranian Power Market. jemr. 2012; 2 (6):155-172. (in Persian)
15. Dietzenbacher, Erik (1997): In Vindication of the Ghosh Model. A Reinterpretation as a Price Model. In J Regional Sci 37 (4), pp. 629-651. DOI: 1111/10/0022-00073/4146. [DOI:10.1111/0022-4146.00073]
16. Emami Meibodi, A. Heydarpor, A. Khoshkalam, M. (2010). Estimating the inflationary effects of energy carrier price correction in two modes of cost pressure and demand pressure with two one-time and stepwise options in Iran. Energy Economics Studies (27). 69-99. (in Persian)
17. Eskandary, M., Mohammadi, H., Mirzaei, H., Kahkha, A. (2017). Effects of Energy Subsidy Reform on Economic Variables in Agricultural Sector. Agricultural Economics Research, 9(33), 125-144. (in Persian)
18. Faridzad, A., Banouei, A., Momeni, F., Amadeh, H. (2014). A Policy-oriented Analysis on Price Effect of Limitations on Petroleum Products Supply in Light of Modified Supply-Driven Social Accounting Matrix. Majlis and Rahbord, 21(79), 153-184. (in Persian)
19. Ghiasinegad, H. Ahmadi Barshahi, P. (2019). Estimation of waste tariff and purchase price of suitable electricity from waste incineration plant with mixed municipal waste. Waste Management Journal. 17. 1-32. (in Persian)
20. Greenfield, C. C.; Fell, H. A. (1979): The estimation of price effects in a social accounting matrix. In Review of Income and Wealth 25 (1), pp. 65-81. [DOI:10.1111/j.1475-4991.1979.tb00077.x]
21. Guo, Zhengquan; Zhang, Xingping; Wang, Daojuan; Zhao, Xiaonan (2019): The Impacts of an Energy Price Decline Associated with a Carbon Tax on the Energy-Economy-Environment System in China. In Emerging Markets Finance and Trade 55 (12), pp. 2689-2702. DOI: 1080/10/1540496X.1562899/2018. [DOI:10.1080/1540496X.2018.1562899]
22. HadiZenoz, B. Barmaki, A. (2011). Assessing the effect of rising energy carrier prices on transportation costs and the welfare of urban households in Iran. Sharif Civil Engineering. 3. 3-16. (in Persian)
23. Khiabani, N. (2008). A computable general equilibrium model to assess the price increase of all energy carriers in the Iranian economy. Energy Economics Studies 5 (16), 1-34. (in Persian)
24. Khiabani, N. (2017). A Dynamic CGE Model for Evaluation of Energy Policies: Evidence from Iran. Iranian Journal of Economic Research, 21(69), 1-46. doi: 22054/10/ijer.7502/2017. (in Persian)
25. Lee, Gene K.; Blakeslee, Leroy L.; Butcher, Walter R. (1977): Effects of Exogenous Price Changes on a Regional Economy: An Input-Output Analysis. In International Regional Science Review 2 (1), pp. 15-27. DOI: 1177/10/016001767700200102. [DOI:10.1177/016001767700200102]
26. Leontief, Wassily (1946): Wages, profit and prices. In The Quarterly Journal of Economics 61 (1), pp. 26-39. [DOI:10.2307/1882402]
27. Leontief, Wassily W. (1937): Interrelation of prices, output, savings, and investment. In The Review of Economic Statistics, pp. 109-132. [DOI:10.2307/1927343]
28. M.Farimani, Fazel (2006). Master Thesis: Elimination of energy subsidies and evaluation of its distributive effects (input-output analysis). Imam Sadiq University. Tehran. Iran. (in Persian)
29. Mesnard, Louis de (2007): About the Ghosh Model. Clarifications. In SSRN Journal. DOI: 2139/10/ssrn.1029614. [DOI:10.2139/ssrn.1029614]
30. Miller, Ronald; Blair, Peter (2009): Input-Output Analysis. Foundations and Extensions. 2nd ed.: Cambridge university press. [DOI:10.1017/CBO9780511626982]
31. Ministry of Energy of the Islamic Republic of Iran (2017). Energy balance sheet for 2017. 24-214. (in Persian)
32. Moghaddam, Hussein; Wirl, Franz (2018): Determinants of oil price subsidies in oil and gas exporting countries. In Energy Policy 122, pp. 409-420. DOI: 1016/10/j.enpol.07/2018.045. [DOI:10.1016/j.enpol.2018.07.045]
33. Mojaverhosseini, F. (2006). Estimating the macro effects of Iran's accession to the World Trade Organization using a computable general equilibrium model (CGE). Trade Study Journal. 39. 1-37. (in Persian)
34. Moses, Leon N. (1974): Outputs and prices in interindustry models. In Papers of the Regional Science Association 32 (1), pp. 6-18. DOI: 1007/10/BF01942286. [DOI:10.1007/BF01942286]
35. Nasimi, H. (2003). Modification of energy subsidies. Peik Adabiat Publications. Tehran. Iran. (in Persian)
36. Omotosho, Babatunde (2020): Oil Price Shocks, Fuel Subsidies and Macroeconomic (In) stability in Nigeria. In Central Bank of Nigeria Journal of Applied Statistics, pp. 1-38. DOI: 33429/10/Cjas.1/10219/6. [DOI:10.33429/Cjas.10219.1/6]
37. Permeh, Z. (2005): THE EFFECTS OF NECESSARY COMMODITIES'PRICES ON CPI BY USING A SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX.
38. Rezazadeh, A. (2010). Master Thesis: Investigating the inflationary effects of rising electricity prices on various sectors of the economy with an input-output approach. Ferdowsi University. Mashhad. Iran. (in Persian)
39. S. M., M., Pourmehr, M. (2015). Evaluation of The Effect of Increasing Oil World Price on PPI and CPI in Iran by Using Input-output Approach. Economic Modeling, 9(30), 111-129. (in Persian)
40. Saadat, A., Hooshmand, R., Tadayon, M., Kiyoumarsi, A., Torabian, M. (2020). Harmonic Control in Power Systems by means of Harmonic Pricing. TABRIZ JOURNAL OF ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING, 50(1), 195-205. (in Persian)
41. Salimian, Z. Sadeghi shahdani, M. Kordbacheh, M. Makarizadeh, V. (2012). Analysis of the Effect of Targeted Subsidies Plan on Final Cost of Electricity Based on Wage Internalization in Input-Output Table. Energy Economics Studies 33 (9), 85-114. (in Persian)
42. Shahmoradi, A. Haqiqi, I. Zahedi, R. (2011). Investigating the effects of rising energy carrier prices and cash subsidies in Iran: The CGE approach. Economic Research and Policy 19 (57), 5-30. (in Persian)
43. Shahmoradi, A. Mehrara, M. Fayazi, N. (2010). Liberalization of energy carrier prices and their effects on household welfare and government budget from input-output method. Iranian Economic Research 42 (13), 1-24. (in Persian)
44. Sharifi, A. Khoshakhlagh, R. Azarbaijani, K. Moeini, S. The Behavior of Iranian Electricity Market in Supply Function Equilibrium Framework. jemr. 2014; 4 (14) :59-83. (in Persian)
45. Sharify, Nooraddin; Sancho, Ferran (2011): A new approach for the input-output price model. In Economic Modelling 28 (1-2), pp. 188-195. [DOI:10.1016/j.econmod.2010.09.012]
46. Siddig, Khalid; Aguiar, Angel; Grethe, Harald; Minor, Peter; Walmsley, Terrie (2014): Impacts of Removing Fuel Import Subsidies in Nigeria on Poverty. In Energy Policy 69, pp. 165-178. DOI: 1016/10/j.enpol.02/2014.006. [DOI:10.1016/j.enpol.2014.02.006]
47. Statistical Center of Iran (2019). National and regional accounts of the Islamic Republic of Iran. 1-10. (in Persian)
48. Sze, Loo; Harun, Mukaramah (2019): Responses of Firms and Households to Government Expenditure in Malaysia: Evidence for the Fuel Subsidy Withdrawal (Tindak Balas Firma dan Isi Rumah ke atas Perbelanjaan Kerajaan: Bukti Pemansuhan Subsidi Bahan Api). In Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia 53, pp. 1-12. DOI: 17576/10/JEM-2019-5302-3.
49. Tarr, David; Jensen, Jesper (2002): Trade, foreign exchange, and energy policies in the Islamic Republic of Iran: reform agenda, economic implications, and impact on the poor: The World Bank. [DOI:10.1596/1813-9450-2768]
50. Tavanir, Iran's Power Generation and Distribution Company (2019). Tariff for electricity subscribers. Tariff rates for 2019. 1-25. (in Persian)
51. Viscusi, W. K., John Vernon, and J. Harrington Jr. 1995. Economics of Regulation and Antitrust. 2nd ed. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
52. Wang, Yanqin; Dong, Zhen; Wang, Yong; Liu, Guanghui; Yang, Hongwei; Wang, Dongchao (2019): Impact of Electricity Production Tax on China's Economy, Energy, and Environment. A CGE-Based Study. In Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 28 (1), pp. 371-383. [DOI:10.15244/pjoes/81617]
53. Zenozi, S. Master Thesis: Analysis and effects of increasing the price of energy carriers on the general level of prices in Iran by input-output method. Imam Sadiq University. Tehran. Iran. (in Persian)
54. Zolnoor, S. (2003). General equilibrium model for analyzing the effect of taxation in Iran. Ministry of Economic Affairs and Finance (Iran). (in Persian)
55. Zorarponeh, M. (2005). Investigating energy subsidies and the effects of increasing energy carrier prices on price levels in Iran. Journal of Commerce. 117-148. (in Persian)
56. Zorarponeh, M. Dabbagh, R. (2003). Investigating income distribution in Iran using social accounting matrix. Journal of Commerce. 7 (27). 139-167. (in Persian)
ارسال پیام به نویسنده مسئول
| بازنشر اطلاعات | |
 | این مقاله تحت شرایط Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License قابل بازنشر است. |
