دوره 10، شماره 35 - ( 1-1398 )
سال10 شماره 35 صفحات 110-69 |
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Rajabi S, Manzoor D. Assessing the Importance of Energy Sector Using the Expanding Extraction Method: Iranian Economy. jemr 2019; 10 (35) :69-110
URL: http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1796-fa.html
URL: http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1796-fa.html
رجبی سجاد، منظور داوود. ارزیابی جایگاه بخش انرژی در اقتصاد ایران با به کارگیری روش حذف فرضی تعمیم یافته. تحقیقات مدلسازی اقتصادی. 1398; 10 (35) :69-110
سجاد رجبی* 
1، داوود منظور2
1، داوود منظور2
1- دانشگاه امام صادق(ع) ، Sajadrajabi@isu.ac.ir
2- دانشگاه امام صادق(ع)
2- دانشگاه امام صادق(ع)
چکیده: (5314 مشاهده)
در این مقاله با استفاده از روش حذف فرضی تعمیم یافته دیازنباخر و لهر (2013) و در قالب مدل تعادل عمومی داده-ستانده، به بررسی و ارزیابی جایگاه بخش انرژی و زیربخش-های آن در اقتصاد ایران طبق داده¬های بههنگام شده جدول داده-ستانده ایران به سال 1396 با تکنیک RAS پرداخته شده است. در این راستا ابتدا طبق چهار سناریو، کاهش 10 درصدی عرضه زیربخش¬های انرژی شامل زغال سنگ، نفت خام، برق و گاز بررسی شده اند و در سناریو پنجم با تلفیق زیربخش های انرژی به یک بخش، کاهش 10 درصدی عرضه انرژی بر 75 بخش اقتصاد سنجیده شده است. نتایج این مدل شبیه سازی شده نشان می دهد با کاهش عرضه بخش انرژی بخش «ساخت کُک و فراورده‌های حاصل از پالایش نفت» با کاهش 9 درصدی ارزش افزوده مواجه خواهد شد پس از آن نیز بخش های «حمل و نقل از طریق لوله» و «ساخت مواد و فراورده‌های شیمیایی» به ترتیب با 4درصد و 2درصد کاهش ارزش افزوده روبه رو می شوند.
نوع مطالعه: كاربردي |
موضوع مقاله:
انرژی، منابع و محیط زیست
دریافت: 1397/10/16 | پذیرش: 1398/2/21 | انتشار: 1398/3/20
دریافت: 1397/10/16 | پذیرش: 1398/2/21 | انتشار: 1398/3/20
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