دوره 9، شماره 33 - ( 7-1397 )
سال9 شماره 33 صفحات 149-117 |
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Hendizadeh H, Karbasi A, Mohtashami T, mohamadzadeh H. Spatial Panel Pattern Modeling in the Analysis of Saffron Foreign Trade Network. jemr 2018; 9 (33) :117-149
URL: http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1662-fa.html
URL: http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1662-fa.html
هندی زاده هنگامه، کرباسی علیرضا، محتشمی تکتم، محمدزاده سید حسین. مدل سازی الگوی پانل‌فضایی در تحلیل شبکه تجارت خارجی زعفران. تحقیقات مدلسازی اقتصادی. 1397; 9 (33) :117-149
1- دانشگاه تربت حیدریه
2- دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد ،arkarbasi2002@yahoo.com
3- دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد
2- دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد ،
3- دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد
چکیده: (5719 مشاهده)
از جمله عواملی که تأثیر بسزایی در توسعه اقتصادی کشورها دارد اتکا به تجارت خارجی بوده و به علت وابستگی کشورها به درآمدهای صادراتی و واردات تجارت خارجی نقش اساسی و انکارناپذیری در رشد و توسعه بخش های مختلف ایفا می کند. تجارت خارجی محصولات کشاورزی به علت ارزآوری بالا و پایدار نقش مهمی در گسترش صادرات و واردات کشورهای مختلف بازی می کند. درمیان محصولات کشاورزی، زعفران یکی از مهم ترین کالاهای صادراتی کشاورزی می باشد که سهم زیادی در ایجاد ارزش افزوده بخش کشاورزی برعهده دارد. این مطالعه به بررسی و تحلیل شبکه تجارت خارجی زعفران در بین یازده کشور فعال از جمله ایران در این حوزه پرداخته است. آمار و اطلاعات لازم طی سال های 2016-2007 جمع آوری گردید. با توجه به پراکندگی جغرافیایی کشورهای مورد بررسی از یک الگوی پانل فضایی جهت تحلیل عوامل اثرگذار بر ارزش تجارت زعفران استفاده شد. نتایج برآورد روش های OLS، وقفه فضایی و خطای فضایی نشان داد که متغیرهای قیمت واردات به ازای هرگرم، قیمت صادرات به ازای هرگرم، شاخص آزادسازی اقتصادی، شاخص استانداردهای صادراتی، تولید ناخالص داخلی، نرخ واقعی ارز و شاخص سیاست های حمایتی دولت از صادرات زعفران معنی دار و بر ارزش تجارت دارای اثر مثبت هستند. مثبت و معنی دار شدن ضریب وابستگی فضایی نشان می دهد که مجاورت و همسایگی نقش مهمی در افزایش یا کاهش تجارت دارد. به این معنی که چنان چه ارزش تجارت زعفران کشورهای مجاورافزایش یابد، ارزش تجارت در کشور موردنظر به اندازه ضریب همسایگی افزایش می یابد.
نوع مطالعه: كاربردي |
موضوع مقاله:
تجارت و مالیه بین الملل
دریافت: 1396/11/11 | پذیرش: 1397/5/3 | انتشار: 1397/9/28
دریافت: 1396/11/11 | پذیرش: 1397/5/3 | انتشار: 1397/9/28
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