Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental Hazards
تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی
Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental Hazards
Literature & Humanities
http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir
1
admin
2423-7892
2588-5146
10.61186/jsaeh
fa
jalali
1395
10
1
gregorian
2017
1
1
3
4
online
1
fulltext
fa
شناسایی الگوهای سینوپتیکی پدید آورنده بارش های سنگین
حوضه آبخیز طالقان در استان البرز
Identifying the synoptic patterns of heavy rains
in Taleghan Basin
عمومى
General
پژوهشي
Research
<p dir="RTL" style="margin-right: -0.05pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size:16px;"><span style="font-family: nasimyw;"><strong> بارش های سیل آسا از جمله پدیده های جوی می باشند که هر ساله خسارات جبران ناپذیری را به</strong> <strong>تاسیسات زیر بنایی، عمرانی، کشاورزی و همچنین صدمه به جان و مال انسان ها وارد می کنند. در این پژوهش به منظور شناسایی الگوهای سینوپتیکی پدید آورنده این نوع بارش ها با استفاده از رویکرد محیطی به گردشی و با استفاده ازآمار ایستگاه های موجود در حوضه آبخیز طالقان ( گته ده، دهدر، دیزان، سنکرانچال، آرموت، انگه، جوستان، زیدشت) و بهره گیری از روش های (</strong><span dir="LTR">PCA</span><strong>) و خوشه بندی (</strong><span dir="LTR">CA</span><strong>) و همچنین بارش سنگین در حوضه مورد مطالعه با استفاده از فراسنج صدک ها تعیین شد و الگوهای گردش روزانه بارش های فرین در مقیاس همدیدی مشخص گردید. به منظور طبقه بندی تیپ های هوای میانگین روزانه مربوط به تراز 500 هکتوپاسکال و فشار سطح دریا (</strong><span dir="LTR">SLP</span><strong>) طی دوره آماری 1980-2011 در تلاقی های 5/2 درجه از مجموعه داده های بازسازی شده </strong><span dir="LTR">NCEP</span><strong> استخراج شد. محدوده انتخاب شده شامل 608 نقطه از عرض 10 تا 60 درجه شمالی و از 10 تا 80 درجه عرض شرقی را پوشش می دهد. با استفاده از روش مولفه های اصل نقاط وابسته به هم ادغام و ابعاد ماتریس کاهش داده شد. به طوری که 13 مولفه اصلی باقی ماند که مجموعاً 93 درصد کل واریانس را شامل می شود. در این تحقیق از آرایه </strong><span dir="LTR">S</span><strong> و چرخش واریماکس برای شناسایی تیپ های هوا و برای طبقه بندی تیپ های هوای روزانه، از روش خوشه بندی </strong><span dir="LTR">K-Means</span> <strong>استفاده گردید</strong><strong> و در نهایت ماتریسی به ابعاد 60</strong><strong>8</strong> <strong> × 118 برای 118 روز بارش مشترک بین ایستگاه ها ترسیم شد. </strong><strong>همه روزها (118 روز) به چهار گروه تقسیم بندی شدند که ارائه دهنده متداول ترین الگوهای گردش جوی در ناحیه مورد مطالعه می باشند و در نهایت نقشه های ترکیبی فشار سطح دریا و تراز 500 هکتوپاسکال برای هر یک از تیپ های هوا ترسیم گردید.</strong></span></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size:16px;"><span style="font-family: times new roman;">Classifying daily climate circulation patterns has always been considered by climatologists. Investigating climate changes such as rainfall and the temperature in a same single time and place suggests that these changes are strongly influenced by atmospheric circulation patterns.</span></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size:16px;"><span style="font-family: times new roman;">Regarding so, climate changes, known as variables here, such as rainfall, temperature, and other related phenomena, which are exemplified as flood, drought, glacial, and etc. are associated with special types of climate circulation patterns. The continuity and alternation of the systems are classified or identified climatically, therefore weather classification system is one of the main objectives of the synoptic climatology (Huth, 1996). Since every weather type creates its own special environmental condition, lack of identification in weather type frequencies leads to a difficult environmental explanation and alternation (Alijani, 1380: 64).</span></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size:16px;"><span style="font-family: times new roman;">Identifying atmospheric circulation patterns different things that can be expressed inductively such as frequency, intensity, and spatial distribution of climate changes in rainfall and its physical causers (VicenteSerrano and LopezMoreno, 2006).</span></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size:16px;"><span style="font-family: times new roman;">Heavy rainfall in many watersheds, particularly in the basin and sub-basin which involve less time exposure, causes floods and it also damages human, natural resources, infrastructure utilities and equipment. Before the occurrence of this kind of rainfall, it requires a deep understanding of the synoptic systems of their creator. This understanding is only possible through the classification and identification of rainfall patterns which used to cause floods in the studied basins.</span></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size:16px;"><span style="font-family: times new roman;">The present study also aims at identifying and classifying the synoptic patterns of rainfall during the statistical stage of the study in the basin which caused flood in Taleqhan basin.</span></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size:16px;"><span style="font-family: times new roman;">Taleqhan basin with area of (65/1242) per square kilometers is located in "36<span dir="RTL">֯</span>, 5', 20" to "36<span dir="RTL">֯</span>, 21', 30" north latitude and "50<span dir="RTL">֯</span>, 36', 26" to eastern longitude "51<span dir="RTL">֯</span>, 10', 18".</span></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size:16px;"><span style="font-family: times new roman;">The study area is 120 kilometers away from North West of Tehran and located in a relatively high mountainous area in Alborz Mountain. This area is ranging from 1700 meters to 4400 meters above sea level. Average rainfall in this basin ara is 515/16 mm and its annual temperature fits 10.5 centigrade. About 79 percent of rainfalls occurs from the cold weather period in November to March. It is also know as semi-humid cold weather based on the De Martonne classification.</span></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size:16px;"><span style="font-family: times new roman;">Circulation algorithm (CA) and pattern clustering algorithm (PCA) were determined based on the daily methods in synoptic scale by applying information from stations in Taleqhan basin (Gateh deh, Dehdar, Dizan, Snkranchal, armouth, Ange, Joostan, Zidasht). In order to classify the weather type, daily average rate of 500 HPa and the sea level pressure (SLP) were extracted and reconstructed over the period (1980-2011) at the 2.5 degree of NCEP. Selected range includes 608 points from latitude of 10 to the 60 of northern degree, and latitude of 10 to 80 of eastern degree.</span></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size:16px;"><span style="font-family: times new roman;">Principal components method mixes the interrelated points and reduces the matrix size, so 13 main components are remained that they includes 93 percent of the total variance. This study employs <strong>S </strong>array and Varimax rotation to identify different types of weather. It also makes use of K-Means clustering method to classify daily weather types. And finally, a matrix was formed in 118×608 dimension for 118 common days of rainfall among stations. All days were divided into four groups. They offer the most common climate circulation patterns in the proposed area. At the end, and finally integrated maps of sea level pressure and 500 HPa were drawn for each weather type. </span></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size:16px;"><span style="font-family: times new roman;">According to the results from factor analysis, 13 main elements were selected that they included 93% of the total variance of the data. According to the above mentioned method, all days (118 days) during the statistical period (1980-2011) were divided into 4 groups which provide the most climate circulation patterns in the study area. Then, integrated maps of sea level pressure and 500 HPa range were drawn for each of the types. Clusters were numbered according to the K-Means arrangement, and they were named based on the pressure patterns and the way circulation lines were ordered.</span></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size:16px;"><span style="font-family: times new roman;">The classification shows two different resources for rainfall in this basin.</span></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size:16px;"><span style="font-family: times new roman;">A: Those rain systems that are entered to the country from the West and South affect this basin. These systems humidity are caused by the Red Sea, the Mediterranean sea, the Black Sea, and the Atlantic Ocean. (B) Some parts of the Caspian coast rainfalls and the northern part of the Alborz mountain that has received their humidity from the Caspian Sea and it has infiltrated northern high-land, causes the rainfalls. It enters the basin from the wide valley of Sefid Rood. According to the rainfall measuring stations data, the least rainfall area is in western, which includes low-land areas. And the most rainfall area is its northern east. Rainfall in this area, in terms of rainfall time distribution in a year, is the Mediterranean. It does not involve a complete dry climate in summer and it takes 3 to 4 percent of the total rainfall. Rainfall in the basin, respectively, is distributed in winter, spring, fall, and summer.</span></span></p>
الگوهای سینوپتیک, تیپ های هوا, PCA, خوشه بندی, بارش سنگین.
synoptic patterns, circulation weather types, PCA, Classification, heavy rains
89
100
http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-282-2&slc_lang=fa&sid=1
alireza
Hosseini
علیرضا
حسینی
alireza.tmu@gmail.com
10031947532846001728
10031947532846001728
Yes
Hediyeh
Akbari Ghamsari
هدیه
اکبری قمصری
10031947532846001729
10031947532846001729
No