Journal of Applied Research in Geographical Sciences
نشریه تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی
jgs
Literature & Humanities
http://jgs.khu.ac.ir
1
admin
2228-7736
2588-5138
10.61186/jgs
fa
jalali
1396
9
1
gregorian
2017
12
1
17
47
online
1
fulltext
fa
برآورد و تحلیل مقادیر آتی بارش های نواحی خزری با بکارگیری مدل های گردش عمومی جو
Estimation and Analysis of Caspian Region's Future Rainfalls by Using General Atmospheric Circulation Models.
كاربردي
Applicable
<p dir="RTL" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size:16px;"><span style="font-family: b nazanin;">در پژوهش حاضر اثر تغییرات اقلیم بر روی بارش­ های این منطقه با بکارگیری مدل­ مناسب مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفته و مقادیر بارش­ های دوره ­ی مشاهده­ای (2001-1961) بررسی و تحلیل شد. جهت تحقق اهداف پژوهش از خروجی مدل </span><span dir="LTR"><span style="font-family: times new roman,serif;">HadCM3</span></span><span style="font-family: b nazanin;"> استفاده گردید. ابتدا 7 ایستگاه سینوپتیک انتخاب و داده­ های آن­ها از لحاظ صحت و دقت و کفایت طول­ دوره­ ی آماری مورد بررسی قرار گرفت، داده­ های پرت حذف و داده­ های مفقود بازسازی شد. داده­ های </span><span dir="LTR"><span style="font-family: times new roman,serif;">AOGCM</span></span><span style="font-family: b nazanin;"> با استفاده از مدل </span><span dir="LTR"><span style="font-family: times new roman,serif;">SDSM</span></span><span style="font-family: b nazanin;"> ریزمقیاس گردید و مقادیر بارش برای دوره ­ی مشاهده­ ای شبیه­ سازی شد و پس از تایید تطابق مقادیر داده ­های شبیه­ سازی شده با داده­ های مشاهده ­ای، مقادیر دوره­ ی آتی(2039-2011) برآورد گردید. مقادیر خطای برآورد مدل­ </span><span dir="LTR"><span style="font-family: times new roman,serif;">SDSM</span></span><span style="font-family: b nazanin;"> توسط معیارهای</span><span dir="LTR"><span style="font-family: times new roman,serif;">MBE </span></span><span style="font-family: b nazanin;"> و </span><span dir="LTR"><span style="font-family: times new roman,serif;">MAE</span></span><span style="font-family: b nazanin;">، بصورت ماهانه محاسبه و سپس مقایسه شد. خروجی مدل </span><span dir="LTR"><span style="font-family: times new roman,serif;">SDSM</span></span><span style="font-family: b nazanin;"> جهت بررسی شاخص مجموع بارش سالانه در روزهای با بارش بیشتر از یک میلی­متر در دوره­ ی مشاهده­ای و دوره­ ی آتی(2039-2011) توسط مدل </span><span dir="LTR"><span style="font-family: times new roman,serif;">R-Climdex</span></span><span style="font-family: b nazanin;"> مورد استفاده قرار گرفت و مقادیر شاخص</span><span dir="LTR"><span style="font-family: times new roman,serif;"> PRCPTOT</span></span><span style="font-family: b nazanin;">در دوره­ ی آتی پهنه ­بندی شد. نتایج نشان داد که با توجه به نتایج معیارهای </span><span dir="LTR"><span style="font-family: times new roman,serif;">MBE</span></span><span style="font-family: b nazanin;"> و </span><span dir="LTR"><span style="font-family: times new roman,serif;">MAE</span></span><span style="font-family: b nazanin;">، خطای مدل در ماه­ های پربارش بیشتر از ماه­ های کم بارش است. در مقیاس ماهانه، حداکثر خطا در ماه ­های سپتامبر، اکتبر، نوامبر و دسامبر بدست آمد. بدین ترتیب حداکثر خطا در فصل پاییز و حداقل خطا در فصل بهار و در ماه­ های آوریل و می محاسبه شد. با توجه به نتایج به دست آمده، مجموع بارش سالانه در دوره­ ی 2039-2011 در ایستگاه ­های انزلی، بابلسر، گرگان، و نوشهر کاهش و در ایستگاه های آستار، رامسر و رشت افزایش خواهد یافت.</span></span><br>
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<p style="text-align: justify;">In recent years, the severe fluctuations in precipitation have affected various parts of the country. On the southern coasts of the Caspian Sea, precipitation as one of the important climatic parameters has undergone changes due to global climate change. In the present study, we tried to evaluate the effect of climate change on rainfall in this region by applying a suitable model. In this study, observational period rainfall (1961-2001) was analyzed. the output of the HadCM3 model was used. At first, seven synoptic stations were selected and their data were analyzed in terms of accuracy, and length of statistical period, and lost data was restored. The AOGCM data were simulated using the SDSM model and the rainfall values were simulated for the observation period. After confirming the matching of the simulated data with observational data, the values of the Future (2039-2011) is estimated. The estimation errors of the SDSM model were calculated monthly by MBE and MAE criteria, and then compared. The output of the SDSM model was used to study the total annual precipitation in days with rainfall of more than 1 mm in the observation period and the upcoming period (2011-2039) by the R-Climdex model and the values of the PRCPTOT index Became zoning in the Future. The results showed that the model error in season with high rainfall is more than seasons with low rainfall. On a monthly scale, the maximum error occurred in the months of September, October, November and December. The maximum error in the fall and the minimum error was calculated in the spring and April and May months. According to the results, the total annual rainfall in the period of 2039-2011 will decrease in Anzali, Babolsar, Gorgan and Noshahr stations and rainfall will increase in stations of Astara, Ramsar and Rasht. Geographical distribution of selected were 5 sites in the Khuzestan, 20 sites in Bushehr, 24 sites in Hormozghan and 12 sites in Sistan and Baluchistan provinces. In total, 9000 sites were selected with a 2 km2 were suitable for large scale microalgae cultivation. The total area of these sites were estimated to be 18000 km2. The highest number of proper sites were found in Hormozghan province and lowest numbers of sites were found in Khuzestan province. The availability of technical service, carbon dioxide point resources from oil and gas units are an advantages for microalgae related activities in the Bushehr and Khuzestan provinces. The higher quality of water in the Sistan and Baluchistan province is an advantages for development of microalgae biomass production in the area.<br>
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بارش, تغییرات اقلیمی, مدل SDSM, سواحل جنوبی دریای خزر, شاخص PRCPTOT
Rainfall, Climate change, SDSM model, southern coasts of Caspian Sea, PRCPTOT index.
213
226
http://jgs.khu.ac.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-3398-1&slc_lang=fa&sid=1
alimohammad
khorshiddoust
علی محمد
خورشید دوست
khorshiddoust@gmail.com
10031947532846004099
10031947532846004099
Yes
tabriz university
دانشگاه تبریز
behrooz
sarraf
بهروز
صراف
behrooz_sarraf2002@yahoo.com
10031947532846004100
10031947532846004100
No
tabriz university
دانشگاه تبریز
bagher
ghermez cheshmeh
باقر
قرمز چشمه
baghergh@gmail.com
10031947532846004101
10031947532846004101
No
Researcher of Soil Conservation & Watershed Management Research Institute (SCWMRI)
پژوهشکده حفاظت خاک وآبخیزداری
fatemeh
jafarzadeh
فاطمه
جعفرزاده
10031947532846004102
10031947532846004102
No
tabriz university
دانشگاه تبریز