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Showing 2 results for Structural Break

Dr Naser Farshadgohar, Farnaz Badpar,
Volume 4, Issue 13 (10-2013)
Abstract

This study examines the time series behavior of oil production for OPEC member countries in a fractional integration modeling framework. It’s aim is to identify the potential for structural breaks and outliers. The analysis is based on a monthly data from January 1973 to October 2008 for 12 OPEC member countries. The results indicate that a mean reverting persistence in breaks has been experienced in ten of twelve oil production countries. Thus it is obvious that shocks affect on the structure of OPEC oil production and have persistent effects in the long run for all countries. In some countries is expected the effects to be permanent.
Firouz Fallahi, Reza Ranjpour, Tohid Shokri,
Volume 8, Issue 29 (10-2017)
Abstract

The stochastic and β convergences of per capita energy use (PCEU) in the OPEC member countries are examined during the period 1971-2011. Several unit root tests, including the test introduced by Lee and Strazicich (2003) are used to examine the existence of the stochastic convergence in the series. Next, to study the possibility of the existence of β-convergence, the approach of Perron and Yabu (2009) is employed. Both methods allow for an endogenous structural break point in the series. In addition, the approach of Perron and Yabu (2009) is robust to the presence of a unit root and the results remain the same for the unit-root and stationary series. The results show that the PCEU in Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Nigeria, Qatar, and Venezuela had experienced beta convergence during the first regime (the period before the break point). In the second regime, the PCEU in Algeria, Angola, Saudi Arabia, Ecuador, UAE, Iran, Iraq, Libya, and Qatar shows a convergent pattern. In addition, the estimated break points are clustered and correspond to the major energy and economic crises.


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